March 21st open discussion

Spring Training 2011

Here is your new spot for spring training prospect chatter. As always, check out the blueclaws blog, which has good coverage of the minor league ST games, and also be sure and watch for updates from Dave and Gregg from Clearwater.

One note and topic for discussion. In the limited looks I’ve seen of Michael Martinez, I think he’s going to make the 25 man roster. He can play 2B, SS, 3B and the OF positions. He’s not a world beater and doesn’t have a ton of upside, but his versatility should prove quite useful. Unlike the NRIs like Young and Barfield, Martinez can’t be optioned or re-assigned to the minors, and would have to be offered back to Washington. His speed and defensive flexibility should make him a nice fit, as the Phillies currently do not have anyone on their projected bench who would steal even 15-20 bases per season. With the Luis Castillo signing, Martinez might be part of a numbers game, but I think a spot is still there for him to take. On the Castillo signing, by the way, I’m a huge fan. Its a non-guaranteed minor league deal. If the Phillies like what they see, they add him to the 25 man roster and pay him $414K this season, with the Mets on the hook for the rest. If they determine he is in fact done, then they cut him and they owe him a very nominal amount of money. For a team with a $160+ million payroll, taking a risk like this is a no-brainer. Castillo had a fluky bad 2010 season, in terms of his batted ball data. He still draws walks and still makes contact. That’s the extent of his skill set right now, but he does come with extensive major league experience. The Mets apparently didn’t like his attitude/body language. To be fair to Castillo, if I was stuck on that team, I’d probably be pretty miserable too. The Phillies risk nothing here, but it probably means they didn’t feel Young or Barfield were a great bet to just step in and play every day.

I’d project the Phillies roster as such, with Martinez making the team

C: Ruiz, Schneider
INF: Howard, Castillo, Rollins, Polanco, Valdez, Martinez
OF: Ibanez, Victorino, Francisco, Gload, Mayberry

The Phillies could, of course, carry only 11 pitchers, which would make an awful lot of sense given the likelihood of their starters eating up a ton of innings and lessening the need for a long reliever, but that doesn’t seem likely. If they do carry 11 pitchers, either Young or Barfield could make the roster.

53 thoughts on “March 21st open discussion”

  1. What me worry!
    Martinez/Barfield seems to be the classic” turtle and the haire ” story. Barfield looked like a sure thing ten days ago.
    I have said it before but I like the 25th spot to be for floater especially with just about ready pitchers available this year. Everyone gets a cup of coffee and the Rizz might make a good DL if Utley is out.
    So far Charlie seems as inflexible as ever e.g. not moving Polanco and his sore arm to second. Also include Lidge in your nightly prayers to the baseball gods.

    Maybe we can start out with four shutouts. 🙂

    Like

    1. Just curious who you have playing third if Polanco was moved. I like the current second base options with Polanco at 3rd than moving Polanco and putting someone else at 3rd … just the lesser of two evils.

      Like

      1. The point is to preserve Polanco’s arm. Or do you think they need another injury?

        Like

    2. You know what I find hilarious about it all? Seven years ago the Phillies declined to move Polanco from second to third to make room for Chase Utley, instead signing David Bell. Talk about coming full circle.

      Like

  2. Still not enthralled with Castillo. If 2010 was flukishly bad then what about 2008, when he only hit .245? 2009 looks like a fluke more than anything. Castillo doesn’t have a hint of power left. And he really can’t run anymore. I love OBP, but I find it hard to believe that 20 points of OBP is worth 100 points less in slugging percentage.

    Like

    1. I do not expect Castillo to be good but he could be better than replacement level. I have heard he had ‘foot problems’ and now has lost all his speed and range. I guess the Phillies need to see for themselves but Castillo did have more steals than Polanco last season is less time. (Though I agree that steals are not an accurate measure of speed, I have not timed anyone running the bases for a better data set).

      Like

      1. Castillo was injured in 08 and 10. If you notice, his batting average is right around .290 when he is healthy. As far as for his defense is concerned, his range is just under league average so I don’t think it would be such an issue.

        The thing to keep in mind is that this is a NON-guarunteed contract and unless he really impresses over the next week to ten days, he may not make the trip north. He needs to prove that his foot injury is behind him.

        As far as the SLG% goes, I really think it is a non-issue. He isn’t going to be hitting in the heart of the order. Most likely in the bottom third. You also have to take into consideration that CBP dimensions will be more power favorable than that of CitiField.

        Like

    2. “I love OBP, but I find it hard to believe that 20 points of OBP is worth 100 points less in slugging percentage.”

      Less slugging & compared to whom? If Utley is out for an extended period of time, none of the current potential replacements have any pop. His career ops is a hundred points higher than Valdez’.

      Like

  3. I’m not sure losing Martinez is that big of a problem. I suppose he is a better bench player than Castillo if Utley comes back. But I’m not sure he is better than Valdez (defense) other than his speed. If Barfield offers a little more offense off the bench I think I would go with him instead. We could be an offensive-challenged team without Utley and I think that means more than the positional flexibility. I’m not sure Martinez has the offense to merit starts in the outfield and I suspect the natural outfielder Mayberry may be as good a defensive CF as Martinez would be. A little less range but better instincts and arm.

    I would also be tempted to carry an extra position player, though I would want to make sure we dont lose any pitchers to lack of options. Baez has pitched somewhat well this spring, so I am OK with him making the team. Plus, our card to play to acquire offense later in the year would be Blanton or Kendrick, so we should not lose a pitcher on a roster shuffle unnecessarily (like to keep a marginal guy like Martinez).

    Like

  4. Barfield seems like a classic tools guy who does not fit the mold of a “baseball player.” Hs some speed, some line drive power, but when it comes to making an instinctive or fundamentally sound play, he seems to lack the stuff.

    That’s just 6 or 7 ST games on TV, so it could just be him trying too hard with a new team. I see him sent to LV, where he can play until his clause kicks in in May. If Castillo or Martinez seem overmatched, he could still be in the mix, especially if he locks in his hitting stroke and pitch selection and provides some offense.

    Like

  5. I agree on Martinez, I think he will be the one to stick.

    He has been the best in the field – made some really nice plays in the four games I have seen. I think he hits enough and really hustles.

    Heck, he definitely should hit more than Eric Bruntlett ever did. I really like his slick glovework and his hustle down the first base line.

    The Rule V status is just another reason to give him a long look.

    Like

  6. My question, because I do not know at all, is how good of a defensive player is Martinez? I would guess that he is faster than Valdez and Castillo and maybe equivalent to Mayberry? I see him as similar but worse player than Valdez. If Castillo sticks then Martinez brings another poor hitter off the bench. By how much margin is Martinez better than Bocock, Orr, Rivero? Or is it that Martinez might still have an upside while the others have max’d out?

    However, when Utley returns Castillo is a less useful defensive player than Martinez and the roster logistics favor seeing what Martinez has for a month, until the out-clauses for Barfield (May?), Young (unknown?), and Castillo (likely Apr1) require decisions on them.

    Looking at the pinch hitting options, I am confident Gload will be the top guy and up in the most important spots. Mayberry I do not trust against righties. So that leaves Schnieder who Manuel is unlikely to use or Valdez/Castillo. I guess Castillo would be an okay choice to extend an inning, but Valdez and Martinez give next to nothing. For that last spot I might prefer Young who is used to pinch hitting and has some power. Granted Young would be an emergency fielder only but he would likely bat in the 7th or 8th and be replaced anyway.

    Like

  7. I am just really impressed that the Phillies bench is panning out to be really versatile. I mean Mayberry can play all 3 outfield positions and 1B. Valdez, Orr and Martinez can play 2B, SS, 3B, and some OF. Barfield, who I think will be the odd man out, can play 2B and some 3B. As far as Gload is concerned, I think he gets maybe a day in right field per week against someone he has had success against, but he is basically the New Matt Stairs.

    Like

  8. Ok, not to be a downer but lets get real here… none of these guys will even approach 1/2 of the WAR Utley would when healthy… Cumulatively, all 3 of these guys playing at the same time wouldn’t generate a war 1/2 of Utley… so what are we really debating here? Which pile of shit smells worse?

    Our offense will struggle, and I would be shocked if they’re in the top half of MLB with no Werth and no Utley.

    I don’t mean to knock the debate, but if we’re going to continue to debate something weeks on end, can’t it be something, can’t it be about real prospects who have a chance to be more then just a backup?

    Like

    1. No prospect is going to hit #3 or #5 for this team. That is why they need to go out and trade for somebody that can play second or third and hit in the heart of the lineup.

      Brown will be a middle of the lineup hitter at some point, but not this year. Leaving Ibanez at one of the two spots and Francisco/Polanco/Victorino in the other.

      Unload the system, get me some David Wright

      Like

      1. You don’t just find guys who play second who can bat 3rd or 5th. If you do, they are rarely available. The Met’s are not going to trade us David Wright no matter what we offer. The best we could do is get Kelly Johnson.

        Like

          1. I honestly don’t think they would. He’s a top 3 third basemen in baseball and we are their division rivals. Would the Yankee’s trade the Red Sox Robinson Cano?

            Like

      2. This pitching coupled with what we have left in the line-up should be good for the wildcard. Once you get to the playoffs you ride the strength of your arms and solid defense.

        If we can get either or both of Utley/Brown playing late in the season then we have a great shot of winning it all.

        Like

        1. The Phillies’ lineup without Utley still stacks up well against the Braves. I think the Phils are still favorites to win the East.

          Like

  9. If Castillo starts at 2nd, he could bat number 2, he gets on base and that is what they need up top.

    Like

  11. But is Martinez’s versatility worth carrying him on the roster?

    I’d rather have Castillo/Young than Castillo/Martinez. I actually rather have Young/Barfield in the final 2 spots than Martinez at all. I understand he’s a rule V pick but he’s not a player who possibly can be a fixture on this team for years to come. He’s nothing special.

    As for Castillo, just not a fan of him. He’s one of the reasons Philly fans have laughed at that team for so long. I think he’s not going to make this team and I’d rather root for any other guy, no matter how flawed they are, than root for Castillo. Killed us on when he was on the Marlins and he killed the Mets when he was on the Mets. Don’t wish for him to be on the Phillies.

    Like

    1. Martinez is a better fielder than Barfield and Young and is hitting .300 this spring.

      I will take that. Barfield has looked poor in the field.

      Like

      1. Martinez is hitting .275. As a rule 5 pick I’m sure the Phillies’ scouts saw something extra in him. But he has 9 strikeouts and two walks, not great discipline at the plate. The fielding is terrific but I just don’t know that his bat is good enough.

        Like

  12. Castillo is washed up …if the Phillies scouted him this spring they would know that .
    Its a total waste of time bringing him in even for 0 dollars . he is a .220 hitter with no lateral movement to play 2nd

    Why even give him any at bats that should go to Barfield , Martinez or Orr

    Let the young guys compete for the last spot.

    Like

  14. M. Martinez is an at or below replacement level hitter / player. Carrying him for versatility only offers the luxury of not having to make an obligatory roster move if and when we have an injury at a position without a suitable backup. This is a 28 year old who had below a .300 OBP in over 400 AA plate appearances last year.

    With the serious issues/injuries our everyday lineup is facing, this is not a debate we should have to have and speaks volumes to our lack of Upper Levels depth. Alas the days of David Doster / kevin Sefcik / Kevin Jordan (I kid.. a bit).

    Like

  15. Please do not start listing the Top10 3B and 2B in baseball and see if Phillies can trade for them. Franchise players are generally not for sale/trade. Would the Phillies entertain trades for a healthy Utley?
    Speaking of Utley what is his trade value now? If he retires do the Phillies still owe him salary?

    In my opinion, the Phillies need to find the best temporary replacement option for very cheap in salary/prospects. Other GM’s should know the Phillies are in trouble and should use that in negotiations. However, once the season starts and teams observe their real weaknesses the options can be more reasonable assessed.
    Castillo represents the current cheap option with some possibility to be better than replacement. He is no way will replace Utley’s impact.

    Like

    1. Just about every player can be acquired via trade. Just a question if the price is too high to pay. And there are few prices to high for this team since it is a World Series quality team with a 160M payroll that will have problems playing above .500 baseball without a guy hitting in the three hole.

      Like

      1. “Problems playing above .500 baseball”? I seriously doubt that. This team has been converted from its past dependence on outslugging its opponents in order to win games. This team will go as far as the pitching takes them which figures to be close to 90 wins with or without Utley. It hurts to lose Chase, no doubt. But the season is far from over

        Like

  16. To come back to prospect options…
    I read the profile for Harold Garcia and he certainly sounds like he could be better than Martinez though unlikely he can field SS. He is younger, his speed is better, and the rest is similar. Though I overvalue Phils prospects, going into 2012 with Galvis at SS and Garcia at 2B is a major downgrade right?

    Like

  17. PhxPhilly,

    I gaurentee you the Jays would think seriously on a package including Dom Brown, not that the Phils should do that. I just don’t see Utley returning and I don’t see the Phils winning it all with no 3 and 5 hitter.

    Like

  18. Ibanez and Victorino collided with Victorino going down. From what I’ve seen probably is only a minor cut on Victorino, he got off the field without apparent injury.

    Like

  20. They should have traded Utley last year when Lopes indicated Utley was having some knee problems …denied of course by the Phillies brass. Lopes being honest cost him his job this year but again the Phils will deny that was the reason.

    Now we are looking at this Bum Castillo to replace him ????

    Like

  21. I’ll say this about the Phillies offense. Looking at projections and production from last year in the NL, the Phillies figure to be above average at C, 1B, SS, LF, CF. Average at RF, below average at 3B and 2B. It doesn’t look like a glamour offense, but there isn’t an offense in the league that doesn’t have a question mark or two.

    Like

      1. Or did you mean National League… and I don’t disagree with you, but going from #2 in the NL, to losing your 3 and 5 hitters, which btw represent somewhere in the neighborhood of 11 WAR (all offensively mind you) has got to be a HUGE set back. Oswalt will not put up numbers over the whole year as he did in for the end of the year last year. I’m hoping for a 3.15 era and similiar for Lee. I disagree with many of the “jumpers” (as in off the ben franklin)… but, I think this lineup as it will be on opening day, is nothing but average. And when you spend 78 million on just your hitters (our 2011 number)… i expect more then average.

        Like

  22. I don’t really like Valdez as a starter, I want him to be a bench player. I want the starter to be Castillo and if he doesn’t do good and ends up getting cut, I would want Barfield to start. Barfield has had some success as a starter and I think he could resurrect his career. But if Barfield doesn’t win the starting job, I don’t really like him as a bench player. I would want him to go to Lehigh and I have Martinez as a bench player because he is faster and can play more positions. At first I thought Martinez was a wasted pick but I have started to actually like him. He reminds me a lot of Wilson Valdez. I think that Valdez has already reached his peak and is only going to get worse so I think that they might hang onto Martinez and make him the full time utility infielder once Valdez’s time in Philly is up. I like Delwyn Young and Pete Orr but don’t really thik either of them make a good fit, so I want both of them to go to Lehigh.

    Like

    1. FWIW – Barfield is faster than Martinez and has already stolen bases in the major leagues. Unfortunately, Barfield’s defense at 2B hasn’t been good this spring.

      Like

  23. I am now thinking along with PP that M.Martinez makes this team as a very vesatile bench player. Besides all the positions he can play (with a high degree of skill it appears) he also brings speed to a bench that hasn’t had that element for a couple years now. With the boppers either gone or declining there is a greater emphasis on manufacturing runs with speed and bat control.
    On the ESPN telecast today they were saying that he got a late start to his career because of other commitments so maybe his best is yet to come.
    If he sticks I would expect to see him mostly at second base while Utley is out.

    Like

  24. I think Martinez and Valdez are the same player and I don’t want both on the bench at the same time. If the bench is only 5 guys and 1 is a catcher and the other 2 are all glove no bat then I think that limits how you use your pinch hitters. I like Valdez as a bench guy who can play defense and fill in once in a while, but I have no faith in those type of players when they come in to pinch hit in a key moment. However, having one of those types of players are fine, but having two…too much. If they do that then I think they need to carry and extra bat on the bench (Young).

    Here is my argument for Young. He is a proven pinch hitter. While guys like Barfield and Martinez are hitting well now, what about when they are coming off the bench cold having not played in 5 days.

    On the flip side, I guess if they keep Martinez and he is bad and they offer him back, maybe the Nats don’t take him back then we have him.

    Like

  25. If Martinez is sent to the minors in his Rule 5 draft year, he has to go through waivers.

    In the current scenario, both Valdez and Martinez would not be bench players, as Valdez would start at 2B. Castillo is currently having some issues reporting for duty, he will be owed no money unless he makes team, so no obligation there. Don’t see Castillo as a factor.

    As far as bench goes: In- Schneider, C, Gload 1B-OF, Likely Mayberry for OF back-up(but I’d consider the possibility they put Delwyn Young here), and that’s 3 spots in .
    If they continue with 12 pitchers that leaves room for 2 INF back-ups, or if they go with a reasonable option of going with 11 pitchers they can add 3 back-ups with at least 2 being INF capable. With Mayberry as OF back-up , they can add Barfield , Martinez (12 pitchers) or Barfield , Martinez, and Young (11) or Pete Orr replacing one of the players in either scenario. If they make the reasonable move of inserting Delwyn Young for Mayberry (perhaps a minor trade of Mayberry) then they can have any number of INF options . Barfield and Martinez (12) , or Barfield, Martinez , and Orr (11). And Delwyn Young could also be an INF option, as seen in his numerous extended try-outs with the Pirates as a starting 2B, and exclusively worked by the well-regarded INF instructor (Perry Hill) , even as recently as last season.

    Like

Comments are closed.