March 14th Discussion

Spring Training 2011

Time for a new place to discuss the latest happenings during spring training. And we’ll also put a bonus poll out there as well for your voting/discussion pleasure.

60 thoughts on “March 14th Discussion”

  1. Mathieson has also settled down and is pitching well . I think he will get the first look. If Stutes i slights out for another 2 weeks (showing consistency over time), I could change my mind. No spot for Worley, I think. But did not do a roster check.

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    1. Herndon has pitched very well also. At least at this point, Baez has pitched well too so we’ll see. Bastardo threw a nice 1-2-3 today. Lots of cheap options…

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  2. Tweet from Bob Brookover

    brookob: Just watched Jesse Biddle throw 2 scoreless against single A Blue Jays. Two Ks with nasty curveball.

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    1. LIKE. Touches 97 with a nasty breaking ball? I surely hope these second-hand reports are true…

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  3. I know it’s early (both in the season and in his career), but Biddle looks like he could be something special

    – Jeff

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  4. A lefty with a 97mph fastball is something special… especially when you consider he isn’t overly weak with his secondary offerings.

    Out of curiousity, when was the last time we had a lefty starter on this team who threw mid/high 90’s? I can’t think of any in my time following MiLB.

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  5. Oh, and sorry to double post, but two other valid points… he looks to have a durable frame, and hasn’t been worn down (north east school, no college).

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  7. I find 97 a bit odd considering I saw Biddle’s last start of 2010 and he was touching 92 at most. I like him but he’s still a long way away.

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    1. I remember reading that his velocity was all over the place last year. Plus I also remember him saying last year he was working on increasing his velocity. So it makes sense that in instructs he might be airing it out more. I don’t think we should expect him to pitch in the upper 90s regularly.

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  8. It sounds like they’re mighty impressed with Stutes, but if they’re auditioning him for the long man role there are several million reasons why they’ll probably slot in Kendrick. Although who knows–maybe they’ll release him… Though I find that hard to believe since there’s really no one besides Worley at AAA that seems capable of making filling in as a starter/making a spot start (which is why I think Worley will remain stretched out at AAA).

    Also, to restate more of the obvious, putting Stutes on the 40 man would probably mean dropping one of the fringe-y middle infield types, which seems unlikely considering how dire Utley’s injury situation appears. Unless they decide to release Kendrick of course.

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      1. He will be offered but they may just take our money and let us keep him. I also agree that Worley is in AAA to stay stretched outas a starter.

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    2. There’s no way that they’ll release Kendrick. They offered him arbitration then settled with him for between $2 – $3 Million. If they had any intenton of releasing him, he would have been non-tendered.

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      1. KK happens to be a good long man. He’s actually not that bad one time through a lineup. He really is very similar to Durbin.

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    3. Doesn’t KK still have an option left? Wouldn’t help on the 40-man, but I don’t think it’s necessarily a choice between the majors and being released for him. If they were going to release him, they could have non-tendered him.

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      1. Except my understanding (from reading the beat writers) is that Kendrick’s contract doesn’t become guaranteed until the end of spring training. If they release him before they break camp, they just owe him a half-million dollars of termination pay. Since he is making $2.5 million, the question will become whether they think he provides $2 million in value.

        http://articles.philly.com/2011-02-14/sports/28534236_1_phillies-worley-and-kendrick-antonio-bastardo

        If the front office was being crafty, and unafraid to jerk KK around (and let’s face it, they Phillies organization has been nothing if not willing to jerk him around a little), they might have offered him the contract, thinking that they wanted to hold onto him because they thought they’d find a taker for Blanton, knowing that if that didn’t happen they could always cut KK loose at the end of spring training at the cost of $500,000. I’m not suggesting this will happen, mind you–my whole point is that Stutes is unlikely to make the team at Kendrick’s expense. But there’s certainly a scenario in which they decide that having Kendrick as an ineffective reliever/ineffective 5th starter at an effective cost of $2 million is less enticing than having Stutes doing the same thing better, at the major league minimum. Maybe I’m reading too much into things, but if I was Kyle Kendrick I might wonder why they had Stutes, a former starter, pitch the first 3 innings yesterday.

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        1. Well if you’re going to throw in value versus cost, this whole thing is a no brainer. Stutes at $420K or whatever will simply provide more value than Kendrick at $2MM. But I guess that’s why I raised the possibility of optioning KK–assuming they made the decision to pay Kendrick $2MM+ as a safeguard against Blanton, it would seem to make sense to keep him stretched out in LHV and let the better pitcher pitch in the big league bullpen. It seems like the worst outcome is to overpay Kendrick to pitch in a role he’s not accustomed to.

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        2. With the Phillies being up against their self imposed salary cap, it would be a good move to terminate the contract of Kendrick before the season and save the two million dollars. Two and a half million for a 6th starter is borderline ridiculous.
          If that money is put aside for the trade deadline acquisition of a 5 hole, RH bat, it is money better spent.

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  9. i think stutes starting and pitching 3 innings is a great sign that they are very serious about keeping him. his performance over those 3 innings helps a lot too. very excited about him. if he becomes a strong 7th inning option that would be really, really valuable this year. i thought chad durbin was a real risk last year.

    very excited to hear about biddle. i am a huge fan. i think that he is a top 10 talent. top 10 in all of minors that is. reminds me of a healthy, left-handed knapp. he might be this year’s singleton…i..e. rocket up prospect lists.

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    1. No reason to rush Stutes unless he’s needed because of injuries. He doesn’t even take up a spot on the 40 man roster until 2012.

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  10. Stutes throws with the inverted W or whatever it is called. I know PP wrote up a piece on that but I can’t find it on the site – maybe it was within a post about Savery. Could someone refresh my memory on the mechanics of it? Does it just portend a higher risk of injury?

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    1. Strasberg pitched that way. What else is there to say. It hurts some others not.
      Mostly has to do with where the pitching hand is started( should be higher)

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    2. Do a google search for Chris O’Leary–he advanced the theory with all the physiological reasons behind it. Too complex to cover in a sentence or two here.

      Of course, when you do google it, you’ll find many sites that dispute it.

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    1. He came up as a starter but was a low-mid guy. I remember his first start when he put up numbers like 95 and everybody started freaking out. Then he blew his arm up. So…

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    2. Yes, but that was out of the bullpen and in that one start where he was amped up. In the minors he was low 90s as a starter.

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  12. The probability of Stutes or Worley making the team is slim. I think they will carry one less pitcher. There was much speculation about Baez being cut, but he looks like a keper at this point. His ball is coming in lower and his stuff is sufficient to get batters out. That leaves Bastardo, who had another good inning today. He will probably make start the season with the Phils. Stutes will come up if Baez fails during the season and Edell would replace Bastardo if his arm problems reassert themselves. Edell looks like a good pick-up. Zagursky is having a good Spring also. If Lidge’s biceps remains a problem, Matheison could replace him with Madson closing. On the field I think Young, Barfield, and Mayberry start the season with the Phillies carrying 13 players and 12 pitchers.

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    1. 13 players and 12 pitchers is standard. One less pitcher would be 11 pitchers. To me, this would make sense, since they used their bullpen the least of any team last year and this year the starting pitching is even better. If they carry only 11 pitchers, the 5 starters + Kendrick, and a bullpen of Lidge, Madson, Romero, Contreras, Baez will suffice. If 12 pitchers, I think Bastardo makes it as a lefty specialist. The only way I think that Worley, Stutes, Mathieson, DeFratus, Herndon et al. have a chance to make the roster out of spring training is if there is a trade (Blanton or Kendrick) or an injury (Lidge is already having some problems). However, given the injury rate among pitchers, it wouldn’t be that surprising if one or two of them made the roster.

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    2. I agree with you. It’s not that they don’t deserve to be on the opening day roster. I’ll bet they’d be heading north in most other organizations.

      If Blanton gets traded then Worley is on the roster and I think he should be the 5th starter. Stutes will playing in the majors at some point this year and I hope being sent down doesn’t mess with his head. Some guys have great springs and believe they deserve to be on the roster. When they are sent down, they suddenly can’t get anbody out. I hope Stutes knows that if he pitches well, he’ll be up in no time.

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  13. michael schwimer tweets

    mschwimer had a great outing today… 2ip no hits no walks and 4 strikeouts

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  14. I can’t wait to see some box scores on these minor league games. Great to see that Biddle and Schwim had strong days. Can’t have enough good pitching.

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  16. I think we are reading to much into Stutes starting and going 3 innings. First off he only started because it was a road game that required a 2 1/2 hour bus ride. Oswalt would have started if it were in the clearwater vicinity, Manuel didn’t think it was necessary for him to make the trip when he could get his work in at a minor league game. Also the only reason Stutes went 3 innings was because of a low pitch count. He only was scheduled to go 2 but went 3. He also commented that he hadn’t gone that many innings in a couple years.

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    1. Another reason for him starting was to play against Major Leaguers. Since most teams are starting their everyday players and then bringing in the scrubs, Stutes might pitch more against the scrubs. This gives the Phils a chance to see him against Major League talent.

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  17. Focused on the AA game at the Complex today. The AA guys won 13-3 over the Blue Jays. The starting lineup was 1. Gillies CF, 2. Duran SS, 3. Susdorf LF, 4. Overbeck 3B, 5. Dabbs RF ( last minute replacement for Mitchell), 6. Ruf 1B, 7. Boucher DH, 8. Langley C, 9. F. Hernandez 2B. Mattair came on to replace Overbeck at third and Savery replaced Ruf at first. Diaz replace Langley behind the plate.

    Josh Zeid started the game with two clean innings on a couple of strikeouts on sliders and ground ball outs. Trevor May came on to pitch the next two shutout innings getting two strike outs on high heat and a third strikeout on a slider away. His other three outs were on infield pop ups. He gave up two single in his second inning of work. The Jays were free swinging so he gave up no walks.

    Justin Friend came on to pitch two shutout innings. The Blue Jays nicked Jordan Ellis for three runs in the 7th but he settled down to shut them down in the eight. Eric Pettis pitched a scoreless ninth.

    At bat Tyson Gillies went two for two out of the lead off spot but came out of the game in the second inning after he lined a triple down the left field line to drive in two runs. His leg appeared to tighten up after he came into third hard. He appeared to be OK but came out of the game as a precaution. He was seen walking around during the remainder of the game without any noticeable problems.

    Joe Savery had a big game coming off the bench as he had three hits including a double into the gap in left center. All his hits were to the left side. I have yet to see him pull a ball. Darin Ruf was the only one to homer and also drove in a run on a sacrifice fly. Also he made a nice pick at first to complete a double play. Steve Susdorf had a double and a single to help lead the hit parade. Derrick Mitchell sat out the game with a minor injury.

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    1. I winced at the mention of Gillies coming out of the game. Savery’s conversion into a hitter is going to be one of the more interesting undercard stories of the minor league season–it’s real interesting to see that he’s not completely overmatched out there. Now, if only we needed left-handed hitting first basemen as much as we need left-handed pitchers.

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      1. Bad Break for gillies he tweeted the following after the recent injury

        TysonGillies21
        How can things go so wrong when you’re doing everything so right… Unbelievable

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  18. I hope Gillies stays healthy. He had such a bad year last. Nothing went right. Savery is interesting but he better learn to play the outfield if he ever wants to play in Philly. I think Trevor May could be in Reading by the all-star break.

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  19. please explain to me . if kendricks is cut or release he doesnt get his two million contract. though baseball contracts were guaranteed.

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    1. He has a non guaranteed contract. If the Phillies cut him before the season, they only owe him 45 days termination pay. (about 600k)

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  20. Voted Neither mostly because both are more easily controlled. Worely should really get starters innings, not waiting around in the Major League bullpen. Stutes is not yet on the 40-man so why use up that spot if there are other reasonable options: Mathieson, Schlitter, Zagurski, Herndon.

    Kendrick’s situation is very interesting. The lack of any decent 8th starter after he and Worely (who is very unproven) makes both of them useful. Maybe trade Kendrick for just a marginal improvement at 2B or OF. Some team would probably be willing to pay him but not willing to give up much of anything in prospects. If that is the case, is the $2M really going to be spent on someone better than a proven but below average starting pitcher?

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  21. Mathieson is out of options. He has pitched well enough to warrant a chance on the big club. I doubt they will send him down and risk losing him because I am sure he won’t clear waivers and someone will pick him up. I don’t see a spot of KK either…unless they go with one lefty and send Bastardo down…or dump Baez. Stuetes will get his chance but I think Kendrick and Mathieson are first.

    For this reason, I see Amaro Jr. getting creative at the end of March and solving these bullpen issues. (I can’t see them letting Mathieson go for nothing)

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    1. Mathieson isn’t out of options–MLB Trade rumors listed him earlier in the week but corrected it. From today’s Inquirer:

      “Mathieson probably won’t make the team because of a numbers crunch. He does have an option remaining. But he came to spring training with the goal of demonstrating he has the secondary stuff to make it. So far, so good.”

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  22. I don’t believe the Phils have enough starting pitching depth to let Kendrick go because there is a very real chance that they could at some point trade Blanton for offensive help. Problem is KK as a 5th starter for that money is not unreasonable but as a long man, there are a bunch of ways to better spend that money.

    Because of the options, 40 man roster issues, and preference to guys who put in their time, I see Mathieson ahead of Stutes for that last bullpen spot if Bastardo or Lidge are not ready, or if they’d trade Blanton or Kendrick.

    I think they must keep Blanton for a while. If the offense performs, they don’t need to move him. If one of our big four gets hurt, they can’t move him. If they’d trade him and we’d lose one of them, suddenly KK is our #4 and Vance is #5 and that could be a problem. Best to be patient…give our young offensive players a chance – Francisco, Mayberry, Barfield, and Valdez.

    Mr Branch – we all owe you a beer, great work.

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  23. Love Mr. Branch’s reports. I think Blanton is going to be traded at some point simply because they will need salary relief to make some long term moves. At some point they will want to get younger in left field and 3B. Madson will command a raise to stay on and be the closer.

    My opinion is they keep KK and let Worley start in AAA. I think they would like to move Blanton well before the trade deadline for the purpose of having flexability then to make a move for a top of the line-up type bat.

    I don’t think KK at $2 Mil prohibits them in anyway as either their 5th or long man. Just a theory that makes sense to me and now that Lidge is a good bet to start the year on the DL again gives Math the spot. Stutes however is not far behind.

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  24. Worley needs to work regularly. Since I don’t see an immediate trade of Blanton that means he will start in LV.
    Either Stutes or Kendrick can fill the Chad Durbin role but they will opt for experience and the flexibility to start that KK offers and send Stutes to AAA.
    There is a lot of interchangeable parts in bullpen/5th-6th starter roles that will only be worked out in the course of the season.

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  25. Aside from providing the 5th arm in the rotation, Blanton could and should be valued as a big trade piece at or about the trade deadline. We know how short the team org is in SSs and 3rd basemen and the trade deadline offers a good opportunity to gain a good prospect or two to attend to those issues.

    In the meantime, waiting until the July trade deadline would allow Worley to refine his pitching for a call-up at that time. And Blanton would provide a good 5th rotation guy until then; should he do well in the first half of the season his value would increase.

    It is a plan that could yield good rewards. The deadline makes playoff hopefuls willing to spend more than at any other time of the season. IMO, this is one of the big reasons why Blanton is still with the team.

    Would like to see Mathieson make the 25. How much longer can they delay giving the guy his chance? Make him a part of the pen and allow him to thrive. No further delay needed. His secondary pitch(es) have shown well in ST. It’s about time.

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    1. I think it is more likely that we are looking to add MLB players at the deadline than trade them away. I bet we trade some of our Clearwater guys for a hitter before or near the deadline.

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