Carpenter to the ‘pen

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In what has been a whirlwind week for Pitcher Drew Carpenter  (and with a scarcity of Minor League News), Todd Zolecki is reporting that the Phils have decided to move Carpenter to the bullpen.  This time last week, Carpenter had just reported to Spring Training as a member of the 40 man roster and most likely one of the top starters in Lehigh Valley.  With the acquisition of Brian Schlitter, who was added to the 40 man roster, Carpenter was first designated for assignment, cleared waivers, and is now back at camp as a reliever. Phils pitching coach Rich Dubee told Zolecki that ” We’ll try to simplify some things…Get him back to a fastball, cutter, split…We think he has enough stuff to get through a lineup one time.  Getting deeper was a little too difficult.” Carpenter, 25, was the Phils 2nd round draft choice in 2006 out of Long Beach State.

An early projection of the Lehigh Valley rotation has it at 1) Vance Worley 2) Nate Bump 3) Ryan Feirabend 4) Drew Naylor and 5) Jason Grilli . With Carpenter’s move to the bullpen and the loss over the Winter of Yohan Flande and Jesus Sanchez, the Phillies there is a lack of depth at the top of the organization starting pitching wise.  That will all change quickly if things progress as expected in Reading and Clearwater, possibly even by mid-season.

66 thoughts on “Carpenter to the ‘pen”

    1. The Phillies need to keep either Worley or Kendrick stretched out in case one of the starters gets injured. Worley would be my preference as he is able to get through a batting order more than once.

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    2. If you get rid of Baez, what happens to Conteras? Are they really joined at the hip.
      BTW I have had enough also.

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      1. You have to give Baez this chance in ST, to see if he overcame his problems. If you remember, his last 4-5 appearances at the end of the season were actually fairly good. So lets see what he looks like in the exhibition games. You guys sometimes want to see some of these guys trashed or discarded, when in fact teams have money rapped up in these guys, so they aren’t usually just cut, as you would like. It doesn’t work that way.

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        1. Its amazing how many relievers rebound from a bad year to have a good year. Sometimes the bad year was because of an unstated injury and sometimes they bounce back because they discovered a new pitch. Either way, it happens all the time. The Phils will give Baez a very long look before they release or trade him. However, for him to make the team, he has to throw the ball well enough that Charlie has no fear about using him. If they only keep 11 pitchers, and I think they will to start the year, Baez has to be able to pitch multiple innings.

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          1. Baez deserves a chance in ST. But its not just a bad season. He was decent in 2009 but did not have good supporting peripherals. He missed 2008, was awful in 2007 and merely average in 2006. The last time Baez was a guy you’d specifically WANT in your bullpen was 2005. That’s what made the contract so puzzling in the first place, and why you don’t hand out multi-year contracts based on one bullpen season.

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  2. If JC Ramirez has a nice first half he really has the chance to shine. I mean there is absolutely no one in front of him on the depth chart when factoring in that he’s already at AA.

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  3. The speculation about the rotation at Lehigh Valley implies that Michael Cisco will be in Reading. I wonder if the Phillies have made any decisions about his ability to get through a line-up twice. He could be a long reliever if the starting position doesn’t work out. I wonder if Tyler Cloyd will be in the Reading rotation since he hasn’t been there long.

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    1. I considered Cisco as I am sure the Phils will…Obviously, at such an early stage of Spring Training, there are a ton of variables that havent been accounted for yet such as injuries and “opt out” clauses in the contracts of some minor league vets.

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  4. 4 Phillies 2011 Predictions – Take Them To The Bank

    1. Cole Hamels will emerge as the best of the Phillies starters and will put the Phillies in a spot to make a major decision after the season – arbitration? One year deal? Multi year deal? How will the Phils handle?

    2. Danys Baez will prove to be a valuable member of the 2011 bullpen.

    3. Carlos Ruiz will get more 2011 AB’s in a spot in the batting order other than 8th…

    4. By the end of 2011, the Phils will struggle with how to address the closer role in 2012 because they will have 4 potential (decent) options – a) exercise lidge’s option, b) allow lidge to depart and work to sign Madson to a long term deal as the team’s closer, c) look to sign a FA closer, and d) one minor league bullpen arm will emerge in 2011 and end the season as a late inning reliever and be so succesful doing it, that he warrants consideration for the closer role in 2012.

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    1. Madson seems to have a mental block against closing. I wouldn’t sign him long-term as a closer, that will be money wasted and a ton of blown saves. It has baffled me, as one who fervently believes pitching in the 9th inning should be little different than pitching in the 7th and 8th, that Madson has such a meltdown when asked to close, but experience says he does. It also made no sense that Ryan Brannan went from sure-thing, year-away-from-the-show Phillies set-up guy or closer to a guy who couldn’t throw a strike to save his career. Mental blocks are real and difficult to overcome. Brannan never did and I would be astounded if he didn’t try multiple therapists in addition to multiple pitching coaches.

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      1. I agree 100% – Madson always seems to flub it when he has to close. As much I can’t stand that team’s have designated guys to pitch the ninth inning (I think you should manage your bullpen the same every inning), there seems to be a certain mindset that is required for closing out games.

        – Jeff

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        1. Madson’s blown some saves but it usually seemed to be a run squeaking through at an inopportune time. There’s two outs, Madson challenges the batter and gives up the home run. I’d rather see that than a pitcher who can’t throw a strike. Its important to remember that we’re really looking at just six times where Madson was given a one inning save and came up short. Sometimes there are mental blocks but I truly believe Madson has simply been the victim of bad luck.

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    3. The only way Baez is a valuable member of the Phils pen is if grabs a rake and helps the ground crew with the mound. I expect the younger guys to have good springs and Baez released before they comeback north.

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    4. That is why I have been on a wagon to bring in Soria. We have the prospects to spare. He makes 4 mil this year and 6 mil next year. Trade Lidge give up half his salary and you are still ahead. He blew the save the first game last year(Carbera solo HR) and the last (who gives a golden…) game. That is a lot of games in the middle to lose two games . No earned runs in August and September. In four years 13 blown saves.
      He is as good as anyone in baseball.

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      1. Soria is an awesome pitcher, probably the best reliever in baseball. The problem is that he’s under contract at well below market value for four full seasons. The Royals will anticipate contending before the end of his contract, so they will not necessarily seek to trade him. Acquiring him would require a massive package including at LEAST one of our top four prospects.

        Now Brad Lidge last year blew five saves. The Phillies were 3-2 in those games. I don’t see any other Phillie losses that resulted from Lidge’s pitching. So that’s two losses all season that resulted from Lidge. On a team constructed like this one, the difference between a good closer and a great closer is marginal.

        You want a great closer. But filling the lineup and rotation is more important, IMO.

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        1. Does that mean you have faith in Lidge this year?Noting that he is one of the few things that can keep them away from their goals.
          Soria could also solves the Phillies problems for next year and beyond.
          There would be no notable downside since we have extra prospect especially considering the draft is coming.

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    5. i’ll give you number one, if for no other reason than I would love to see it happen-my guess is it will be almost too close to call with one of the other big guns
      #2: no chance in hell
      #3: won’t happen because Charlie won’t let it happen
      #4: I like the logic, but again, I don’t see one of the young minor leaguers getting enough of a chance unless there is a significant injury

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  6. There is no reason to release Baez now – you pay his entire salary either way. If he has a terrible spring and he’s going to take the spot of a deserving younger pitcher, I agree fully. Relievers are known for having inconsistent careers that change from year to year, and I believe he will bounce back and contribute.

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    1. What are your views on the “tooth fairy”.
      Of course you could be right but I won’t bet on Baez with my money or even my e-money.

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      1. There’s really no reason to assume Baez must be awful in 2011. He was good in 2009. It looks like he had a very uncharacteristically high BABIP in 2010. He’s getting older and his best years are behind him, but he should do better in 2011 than in 2010 and we’ve already committed to his salary, so nothing to lose by waiting to see how he does this year.

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        1. I tried to find the recording of those congressional hearings but couldn’t. The whole thing was as funny as anything I have ever seen. What made it extra funny was the kind of formal persona Estes K put out there.

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  8. On Ruiz: the idea that he should hit higher than 8th in the lineup is a good one, but who then would hit 8th?

    Baez will get a chance in ST to show that he is not total cipher. I would have preferred that he had a one year deal, but the fact is he is signed for the 2011 season.

    The decision about him would have to be made early in the season, no later than mid-May; to allow him to pitch poorly like 2010 for longer than that would jeopardize the quest for 100 wins…a small concern, but releasing him then for a poor performance could allow one of the “newbie” reliever prospects to come up after they’ve shown well at LV.

    In a way, I hope that one or more newbies are on the big club no later than then. A fine crop of them oncoming; a little successful time at LV and VOILA! here’s more arming for the big team for now and thereafter.

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  9. I think Ruiz is the perfect eight hitter…contact guy and good eye…keep him there… Baez will get the chance but rather see a youngster get it…I mean you have Lidge, Madson, Contreras, Romero who will have spots. Kendrick I believe is the long reliever unless Blanton gets traded. Worley will start at AAA. I hope Bastardo stays healthy to be that #2 lefty. That leaves Baez fighting with Mathieson, Herndon, and DeFratus for the last spot. I would like to see DeFratus start at AAA since he only pitched a 1/2 season at AA.

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  10. Its hard to see Herndon on the big club. Some time at Lehigh might allow him to work on other pitches or fail. Baez and Herndon both seems to be a burden.

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    1. Herndon was pretty good last year. microscopic HR rate. beyond awesome GB%. he DOES need to get the K’s up some more. if he can get them up to 6 or 7k/9 then i think he’d be a stellar 7th inning/mop up guy.

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  12. I think this move is Carpenter’s only shot at making it to the Phillies for more than a day or two. He obviously wasn’t ever going to pitch in the rotation so I think that this is his best shot at making it.

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  13. In a perfect world, I think Rollins has a good year and bats fifth, with Shane and Polanco at the top of the lineup. In that scenario, if Polanco were to miss time, I think Ruiz could bat second and hold his own. Is it optimal, no.

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    1. I’ll bet that Jimmy stays in the leadoff spot and has a great year in a salary push season. He’s already said a million times that he wants to bat leadoff and Charlie will leave him where he’s most comfortable. Raul will bat 5th against righties and Victorino will bat 5th against lefties with the RF platoon batting 7th and Chooch 8th. With Wagner retired, you won’t see any lefthanded closers. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Mayberry take the last spot on the team, over the 12th pitcher, and to see him pinch hit against lefties and to play defensively in LF to end games.

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      1. Atlanta’s closer situation is unsettled. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them use Johnny Venters in critical situations against the Phils.

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  14. I’m pretty sure that Herndon will have one of those LHV starting spots. They want him to throw the ball and there already are plenty of arms in the bullpen there. Worley, Herndon, and Bump seem pretty certain and Grilli will earn a spot if he’s healthy and throwing the ball ok. However, I’m not so sure that Naylor doesn’t repeat at Reading. Reading’s rotation is far from certain without Flande and Sanchez and with Aumont in the bullpen. My guess is Hyatt, JC Ramirez, Zeid, Naylor and Way. This rotation would also lend itself to moving two guys up from C Water mid year and moving Zeid and Way into the bullpen at that time which is their future. This would also give Nick Hernadez and Julio Rodriquez a chance to move to C Water at that time. Its big picture planning….unfortunately injuries always mess up my plans…
    As for the Phils and predictions, I’ll bet that Ruiz stays right where he’s at in the #8 hole (who else would you bat 8th?) barring injury, I’ll bet that Lidge, finally healthy, has a great year and the Phils resign him to an extension (although for less money than he’s at now), and I’ll bet that Madson will become a FA and sign somewhere else to be their closer (the Phils will offer arb and get a pick for him). Btw, the Royals won’t trade Soria because they have the best minor league system around with guys just about ready to carry that team back to respectability.

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    1. I’m pretty sure Zeid is going to be in the bullpen in AA. I would also be surprised in Naylor weren’t in AAA. I think it’s more likely some combination of Correa, Garcia, Cloyd and Cisco are in the AA rotation, soon to be replaced by whoever starts well at A+. If I had to guess, I would say Garcia, Cloyd and Cisco are the ones, but really I have no idea.

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      1. Sort of the same thing with Zeid as with Herndon and that’s that Zeid needs innings to develop although I think any possible major league future is in the pen. My other reason is that I recall Mark Parent, Zeid’s Lakewood manger last year and Reading’s manager this year, commenting mid season when they converted him to starting how he thought of Zeid as a starter more than a reliever.

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        1. You are correct about Zeid. He almost has to start at AA. He needs development time and Reading is full of relief arms eating up possible innings. DeFratus, Aumont, Rosenberg and possibly Corriea and Garcia. The Phillies would be negligent if they turned Zeid into a full time reliever before seeing what they have.

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          1. On Zeid, I was only repeating what I was hearing. I think it would be nice to see what he can do as a starter, but PP seems to think he will be full time in the pen in AA. His usage suggests that to me too.

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      2. I hope we don’t see Correia and Cloyd as starters in AA. I think they go with JC Ramirez, Matt Way, Austin Hyatt, Mike Cisco, and the last spot Zeid (if they want to give him more innings before going to BP) or Garcia. Correia should stay at Clearwater and try the bullpen. Cloyd not sure where he fits. Maybe Reading bullpen

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    2. Murray, I believe you pretty much nailed the Reading rotation. I believe Naylor will start in AA, then move to AAA in June.
      Not sure on Herndon. Makes sense to have Herndon start, if they want him to develop more pitches, but he already showed what he could do as a starter when he was with the Angels. I believe he stays in the Bullpen.

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      1. I’m confident that any future Herndon might have in the big leagues will be in the bullpen but, I think he’ll start at LHV to get him more innings as he really didn’t pitch that much last year.

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  15. I agree with Murray. I think the phils will take a look at herdon as a starter in AAA. Grilli isn’t a starter and is pretty much a waste of time and money. I think there’s one bp spot available coming out of st and Baez will get to about may to show what he has before getting dfa’d.

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  16. My prediction on Ruiz is that there are two ways this will happen – 1) somebody else is injured, i.e., Utley, Polanco, or Rollins and Valdez would bat 8th, and/or 2) Chooch is hitting .300+ and with others possibly struggling, we need his offense higher up in the lineup, albeit not ideal…

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    2. I agree that if Valdez is forced into the lineup, he’d probably bat 8th which would move Chooch up to 7th. No offense to Valdez who played fine last year filling in, I really don’t want to see him as much as we saw him last year.

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  17. I was almost certain that Herndon was gonna be a starter for the Pigs, not sure if it was rumors, but I heard some grumblings about it a few months back.

    Also remember Eddie Bonine was a starter in the minors and if the Phils keep him in the organization, he can always get a spot for the Pigs.

    I’ll go with Bump, Feierabend, Naylor, Herndon, and maybe Worley. Naylor could/should be in Reading, but I think with him on the 40 man, Phils might send him to the Pigs to prove himself worthy on being on it.

    I think putting Carpenter in the pen is pretty pointless. He doesn’t have a go-to pitch, doesn’t really throw for power. I have a feeling its a make or break year for him and then he’s done.

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    1. It’s not pointless. He’ll probably gain some velocity going to the pen. Wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he performed as well as some of the other, highly thought of, Iron Pig relievers.

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      1. Pointless was prob a bit harsh, but I think its definetely a last resort for him. He’s a guy who I always wanted to see do well, does alright in AAA, but never really does exceptional. Pigs could always use another long reliever to complement Gordon.

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  18. Agreed. I think he’s just filler at this point. Even if his velo tics up, that may only put him at like 90-92 at best without an above average secondary pitch. I’m pulling for him, but he just doesn’t have the raw stuff to be successful in the majors in ANY capacity. If you want proof, just see the league’s worth of teams that passed on even placing him on their 40 man rosters.

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    1. The one time I saw him pitch in relief on TV he was good. Low 90s FB with a nice slider that got swings and misses. It was only three batters, but it was the AAA All-Star game.

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  21. This is going to be a good move for the ironpigs having Drew in the bullpen. Drew is an Ok starting pitcher who has his ups and downs. Drew will be a better out of the bullpen pitcher where he can be used in middle innings. Not so sure he will be a closer but that to be seen. I wish Drew all the luck and look forward to see Drew pitch this season.

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