My Top 30 Prospects for 2011: Part 8

** My Top 30 Prospects

Seven parts and 22 prospects in the books, that means just 8 more guys to go in this year’s top 30. I won’t bore you with an intro, we’ll just get right to it.

Volume 1
Volume 2
Volume 3
Volume 4
Volume 5
Volume 6
Volume 7

23. Michael Schwimer, RHP
(Click here for larger image)

2010 Summary: It was a largely successful season for our favorite phuturephillies.com contributer, as Schwimer missed a ton of bats at AA and then held his own in his first taste of AAA.

Strengths: Schwimer’s biggest asset is his approach to the game and his ability to get the most out of his tools. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball, sitting in the 89-93 range, but he can cut it and sink it, and his huge stature allows him to hide the ball well, creating deception. Though his changeup and slider are still works in progress, both continue to make progress.

Weaknesses: Schwimer isn’t overpower, and he’s still slightly vulnerable to lefthanded batters, something he is of course aware of, and something he is working on. Because he lacks the one knockout pitch, its tough to project him into a 9th inning role right now, but he certainly has the mentality to handle it, and guys have saved a ton of games with a lot less raw stuff. His home run rate ticked up at the hitter friendly confines in Reading, and inducing more groundballs would definitely help his stock going forward.

Best Case: His best case is probably a good setup guy or 7th inning reliever, but he could probably close games if he tightened his command and control, especially of his secondary pitches.

MLB ETA: It should be some time in 2011.

Ranking Difficulties: This spot feels right. He drops 6 spots in the rankings, but it was more because of the influx of talent and the breakout performances from some of the guys who were off the radar last year moreso than anything he did wrong.

Final Thoughts: Its no surprise that I’m a big fan, especially after what he’s provided to this site, but putting that aside, he does have the mentality needed to pitch in tight spots, and though none of his pitches wow you, he knows how to use them to set up hitters, and his strikeout rate speaks for itself at this point. Everyone here is pulling for Schwim, and it should be exciting to see him get his first taste of the bigs this year.

24. Matt Rizzotti, 1B
(Click here for larger image)

2010 Summary: Facing a crucial season in 2010, Rizzotti responded by obliterating AA Reading, posting massive power numbers, along with a solid walk rate and a manageable strikeout rate. He was the beneficiary of a very unsustainable .425 BABIP, but the secondary skills say his 3 slash line wasn’t a total fluke. He struggled at AAA, but that’s forgiveable for now.

Strengths: Rizzotti’s strength lies entirely in his bat. He’s shown solid patience at every level, and he actually lowered his K rate when promoted to Reading this year. His power spike came almost out of nowhere, as his power was good considering the FSL last year, but nowhere near this good. Reading’s home park no doubt helped inflate those numbers to some degree, but a .635 slugging percentage is impressive pretty much everywhere.

Weaknesses: Rizzotti is a defensive liability even at the weakest defensive position on the diamond. He isn’t a great athlete, and struggles with even routine plays at times. Because there is no DH in the NL, this poses a problem. Though his K rate was manageable in AA, it ballooned to almost 27% in AAA, and his power also vanished. Adjusting to a new league, a league with polished pitchers, in just 52 PAs buys him a pass at this point, though his AFL performance was also a bit of a red flag. He turned 25 on Christmas eve, so there’s really no more projection here, he is what he is.

Best Case: On a second division team, especially in the AL, Rizzotti might swing it as a DH, because unless his defense improves, his bat is going to have to improve as well for a team to buy into him as a first baseman. That team won’t be the Phillies, who have a 1B tied up for the next half of the century. He’s a three true outcomes hitter at this point, and there is value in there, just not a ton of long term star value.

MLB ETA: A full season at AAA would probably help, especially to get him reps against better breaking balls and changeups. His defense absolutely should be a point of focus, and there is no sense DH’ing him, he’ll never learn that way. Let him play the field and figure it out.

Ranking Difficulties: Based on his Reading numbers, I’m sure people would want him higher on the list. Maybe not. But this is where I felt comfortable ranking him, and to be honest, I could have ranked him a few spots lower. In fact, if I had it to do again, I’d rank him below the next guy on the list. That said, he did have a breakout year, he does have secondary skills, so I think he can be a useful big leaguer at some point down the line. Sp yes, there were difficulties.

Final Thoughts: As it stands, his greatest value to the Phillies is as a trade chip. If he comes out of the gate strong, he could be on the move in July. Then again, if he sticks around, can improve his defense at 1B, and shows the same power he showed at Reading, he could fill in as a cheap bench bat in the majors for a few seasons. Hes one of those guys where you want to see him do it again, and that level of skepticism does play a role in me ranking him down in this region of the list.

25. Austin Hyatt, RHP
(Click here for larger image)

2010 Summary: Hyatt had, in many ways, a season similar to Julio Rodriguez. The strikeout numbers were eye popping, his numbers were good, but every scouting report on him was different, with some saying his fastball was only 87-90 and fairly straight, and others saying his velocity has ticked up in the 90-92 range. Because he didn’t have a ton of fanfare coming out of college, maybe scouts haven’t paid attention as much, and maybe thats why its impossible to get multiple, consistent scouting reports. Whatever the case, Hyatt was great in Clearwater, and did everything well in Reading except keep the ball in the park.

Strengths: Hyatt’s command has been good, as he’s been able to spot his fastball and just carve up more inexperienced batters. Like Michael Schwimer, he’s a smart kid with a good gameplan, and he’s been able to use that to his advantage. His changeup is his best secondary pitch, and might be a few ticks above average. His slider shows flashes, but isn’t quite an MLB average pitch at this point.

Weaknesses: Hyatt has been very old for his level at every stop, 2-3 years too old in Clearwater, but like the old saying goes, you can only dominate the competition right in front of you. His strikeout and walk numbers were fine in Reading, but he gave up a ton of home runs in just 22 innings. That may be noise, or it may be a sign that better hitters were able to square him up. He’s been a pronounced flyball pitcher, to the extreme, at every stop, and for a guy without overpowering stuff, that’s a big red flag.

Best Case: I really don’t know. If his fastball velocity is really 91-93, as some reports indicated, and he is consistently there, then he can be a starter. If he’s more 88-91, then he’s a middle reliever with his good changeup and command. Still, young cheap arms who can soak up innings for 3 years at the league minimum are valuable.

MLB ETA: He should make it to AAA this year, depending on his role. He has time, in terms of his option years, but he turns 25 in May, so he doesn’t have all the time in the world.

Ranking Difficulties: I’m not sure what to do with him. He has obvious strengths, and really obvious weaknesses. Not having conclusive, agreeing scouting reports made it really tough to rank him. I could have gone a few spots higher, maybe a few spots lower. So I settled here.

Final Thoughts: Hyatt is a guy I was skeptical of before, but I’ve kind of warmed up to him. Good control and a good changeup is a ticket to at least pitch middle relief in the majors, and his intelligence on the mound will be a benefit. It would seem that the Phillies may want to move him to the pen, see if his fastball ticks up in short bursts, and get him to the big leagues before his 26th birthday, to try and get a few solid years out of him. Without an average or a tick above breaking ball, its tough to see him as anything more than a #5 starter. It will be interesting to see what he is capable of with a full season at AA/AAA against advanced hitters.

45 thoughts on “My Top 30 Prospects for 2011: Part 8”

  1. Howard is only signed through 2014. That’s three seasons from now. And it’s very likely he gets traded that season if he his fielding is declining or he has health issues.

    1B is by no means “locked up”. Rizzotti is obviously not the guy to replace Howard, and Singleton will probably stay in the Outfield, but 1B will become a position with some urgency behind it eventually. I don’t see Howard staying in Philadelphia, as something in the best interest of the Phillies. And while 3B and SS are more pressing needs and 1B being an easy position to slot and fill, 1B will becoming pressing sooner than many people think.

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    2. Howard is indeed signed through 2017, though they at least have a mere $10 million buyout on that season.

      In an ideal world, you’d be right. Hitters of Howard’s statute tend to age quickly. He’s already past his prime and the extension hasn’t even kicked in yet. This has the potential to become ugly, ugly in Philadelphia.

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      1. you guys are missing the fact that Pujols will be the 1st baseman for at least the next 8 years…. :p

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        1. Don’t laugh. If St Louis loses The Hombre, Howard would be a possible replacement as the Cardinal fans will need to be soothed and Howards bat, persona and local roots would make him a good substitute (about 75% of Pujois worth).
          And Pujois sure would balance out that lefty tilt everyone is so worried about with the Phillies.

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      2. 2017 is disastrous. How can people complain about Flyers cap issues when this has occurred? The “window” is only “closing” because of moves like this. I say being Pujols on at this rate.

        In any case, it’ll take a Thome-esque deal and an AL team to get rid of Howard now. But hey, we got Gio Gonzales in that deal. Shoulda kept him.

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  2. It would be interesting to see the Riz as dh in interleague games. I will have to look at the schedule.

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    1. Only if about five guys get hurt before the interleague schedule kicks in. Gload is a much better option for one. Then there’s Browncisco (whichever isn’t in the outfield), Mayberry, etc. I would highly doubt that they call up Rizzotti with the express purpose of getting him DH at bats against AL teams.

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        1. Unless they want to trade him to AL team, then displaying him there as a DH would be a smart idea, if he performs well that is… if he didn’t then it would backfire… But I agree there are much better options unless he was hitting MsGuire like homeruns at that time… joke…

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  3. This might be called the “mature” section of the top 30. Up until these slots the oldest guy on your list was Harold Garcia. These three are a bit older. I think in previous years these slots would be filled by young guys who had some tools but a lot of blemishes too. As you say, these 3 are fully formed but, for the most part, you know what they can contribute. These guys have a good chance of playing in the big leagues some day (pretty soon). It might not be with the Phils though.

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  4. I have no argument with any of these three. I do fully expect Schwim to make the Majors this year in some type of BP role. He held his own last year in ST against MLB hitters and it should be interesting to see how he does this Spring with his invite.

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    1. BP role? I’m drawing a blank on that one – batting practice?

      I think we’ll see Schwimer in Philly this year. I don’t know if he, Stutes or JdF will make the team out of Spring Training, but they’re probably the first three to be called up – they’d probably get the call sooner, if the Phils didn’t make that completely inexplicable signing of Kendrick

      – Jeff

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      2. KK is what we call Insurance. Its pretty smart to have an extra MLB starter laying around…its even better to have 2 (if you count Worley too). How many different starters did we use last year? How about 09? 0r 08?

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  5. On a side note: I know its a bit late to request this but is it possible for you to start off your posts with a list of the previous guys you’ve ranked?

    Its getting hard to remember without clicking through 7 other posts.

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  6. Actually, I kind of like the way that the Phillies have stockpiled relief prospects and journeymen. With the exception of golden boy DeFratus – who has a clear high upside, I think, with so much competition, the team’s approach to the relievers is going to be – and should be – “hey, if you want a spot in the major leagues then go get it. Make it impossible for us not to promote you and then go try to take somebody else’s job. But don’t dally, because there are another 6 guys who are ready to take that spot if you can’t.” It should be fun to watch this all play out.

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    1. Agreed. There’s nothing wrong with a guy like Danys Baez honestly. The problem is when you lock these guys up with multi-year contracts. Its inane. There’s no reason to give multi-year contracts to your 10th-12th pitchers, your utility infielder, your backup catcher or your 5th outfielder. You can get away with giving up that extra year here or there. But the Phillies have grown a bad track record of giving too many years too often. Odd for an organization gung ho on not giving long contracts to pitchers.

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      1. It’s kind of amazing given all the work that’s been done showing the volatility of bullpen guys and valuing players based on replacement level that teams keep doling out multi-year deals to fungible relievers. It may prove to be quite fortuitous for the Phils that they have this plethora of potential cheap, bullpen arms in the high levels of the system at the same time the rest of the league handed out multi-year, high-dollar contracts with reckless abandon this winter.

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      2. They have made an obvious change in the multi year philosophy for pitchers with Halliday, Lee and most likely Hamels coming up. Keeping Valdez for a couple years based on his unique skill set is a very good idea. He can play the infield as well as our starters and is apparently comfortable in the outfield. Has an absolute gun!
        I do agree on the relief front although I am pretty comfortable that the farm is generating arms that will help minimize long term relief deals.

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        2. I think Valdez is the epitome of a guy you don’t sign to a multi-year deal. Maybe I was scarred by too many years of the Ultimate Weapon, Tomas Perez. Seems like there a thousand Wilson Valdez’ out there and the Phillies already got the best four months anyone’s ever gotten out of him.

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        3. I wouldn’t keep Valdez a couple years. I like what he did last year and think he’ll be fine next season, but going forward, I think we’ll do as well with Galvis and Garcia. Valdez will slip and they will improve. They’ll also be cheaper and fill the role longer.

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        4. 2010 UZR/150:

          Rollins 12.3
          Utley 12.9
          Valdez 4.3 at ss/-0.1 at 2b

          He does not field as well as our starters.

          He’s a light-hitting Latino middle infielder who has never been good enough to win a starting job on a big league team. For some reason, among a certain element of Philadelphia sports fans, those qualities earn you baseball immortality (cf. Perez, Tomas) and calls for a multi-year deal.

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      1. It is going to be interesting to see all the prospects that have had little playing time or that are now coming back from injury this year. The list includes:

        Zach Collier
        Steven Inch
        Kevin Walter
        Guantlett Eldmire
        Colin Kleven
        Ethan Stewart
        Percival Garner
        Brian Pointer
        Jon Musser
        Matt Way

        This might be the best minor league talent we have had at all levels in some time… Clearwater & Lakewood will be fun to watch!

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    2. Zeid is a year younger than Schwim but played three levels below him last year. I’m not surprised to see Schwim ahead of him. Hyatt v. Zeid is closer, with Hyatt getting the nod because he is definitely used as a starter which is more valuable.

      I’m a little surprised not to see Castro here, but then again he did not have a very good year.

      Garner not being here surprises me the most. I would have him ahead of Walter. I assume that’s due to age (Garner’s 22) and the positive offseason reports on Walter that PP cited.

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  8. Hyatt in 2010 was in his second season of pro ball. His innings pitched increased by almost threefold (to 144 inns) compared to 58 in 2009. Though he faltered some when he was moved up to Reading, I suggest that his workload probably took some oomph from his FB…and made those HRs a likely outcome there.

    Of course his tendency to throw fly balls is a concern. To me his challenge is divided among three factors: development of a good slider; tick up his fb; command of the strike zone. The slider would make his fb more effective by a comparison of speeds and directions. His fb would then APPEAR faster a la Schwimocity.

    If he does all that, he could ( like Happ) have been underestimated, and might be a guy that sneaks into an important role in the bigs as a reliever and variable starter.

    Add another guy to watch closely, his age calling for a concentration at AAA LV after a short stay in Reading.

    For some unexplainable reason, I’ve come to like his surprise potential. Go Austin!!

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    1. To say Hyatt went from 59 innings to 144 is a half-truth. He also pitched 103 innings in the SEC in 2009. He actually pitched LESS competitive innings in 2010.

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        1. You noted 2010 was his second season of pro ball, a factual statement. You then referenced his innings as a function of his workload. If your position is that the SEC innings don’t matter in that context, I’d have to say its ridiculous. Hyatt pitched just as much last year as he did in 2009.

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          1. Ridiculous? Take note: in pro ball starting pitchers start every 5 days; in college ball they might pitch once a week. Quite a change, n’est pas?

            Enjoy yr certainties.

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            1. Got it. Hyatt only pitched 59 innings in 2009 and pitched dramatically more in 2010. We’ve also always been at war with Eurasia.

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  10. The reality is that Schwim and Zeid probably project a similar upside as a 7th inning guy and Schwim is certainly closer to the bigs, although Zeid has a better fastball. I originally ranked Zeid slightly higher than Schwim thinking that maybe he can be a 8th inning guy because of his fastball. Its all just conjecture at this point. I’m loving the fact that we still have several potentially legit prospects not even in our top 30 due to unknowns (Collier, Inch, Musser, Pointer, Anderson Gonzalez, Numata, etc). Anything is better than a roster full of guys that max out as 4A types….

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      2. I had Zavala somewhere around #44 on my list. But he’s just 16 and yet to professionally pitch. Remember Michael Ynoa? Signed for $4.25 million. Now he’ll miss 2011 and he’s pitched all of nine innings in his career.

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