2011 Reader Top 30, #29

2011 Reader Top 30

We’re down to the final 2 spots in what has been a very successful 2011 Reader Top 30. Percival Garner easily takes the 28th spot over Scott Mathieson, Cameron Rupp and Nick Hernandez. The voting for the final 2 spots should be interesting. The plan will be to have the final voting finished on Tuesday, and then I will kick off my Top 30 for 2011 on Thursday. I’m going to unveil 3 prospects per day for 10 days to give you my top 30, then go over a list of sleepers and potential breakout players. On an unrelated note, I hope you enjoy the new organizational method for the site, including adding the player profile pages, updating the primer at the top, and updating the draft picks register. Look for more changes and additions going forward.

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP
6. Sebastian Valle, C
7. Vance Worley, RHP
8. Jesse Biddle, LHP
9. Tyson Gillies, OF
10. Justin De Fratus, RHP
11. Jiwan James, OF
12. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
13. Domingo Santana, OF
14. Aaron Altherr, OF
15. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
16. JC Ramirez, RHP
17. Matt Rizzotti, 1B
18. Jon Pettibone, RHP
19. Austin Hyatt, RHP
20. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
21. Harold Garcia, 2B
22. Kelly Dugan, OF
23. Michael Schwimer, RHP
24. Colby Shreve, RHP
25. Freddy Galvis, SS
26. Josh Zeid, RHP
27. Leandro Castro, OF
28. Perci Garner, RHP
29.

62 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #29”

  2. i went with talented young pitcher Kevin Walter. We rated Biddle very high without seeing an extensive amount from him. Walter isnt that far behind. We havent seen much of him yet, but he was a high priced high school buyout with the talent and potential to be the best player left on this list and alot better than guys we have voted before him.

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  3. Rupp than Alvarez. Everyone else looks like future AAA players (or current) with the exception of Walter, but who really knows. It would be interesting to see in a few years who we were wrong about, and who becomes the next Julian Sampson or Michael Durant.

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  4. Miguel Alvarez is the next on my list, but he isn’t getting any support. I’ll probably go Walter then Rupp to finish up.

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    1. I was hoping for a ‘Michael Taylor turn-around’ from Mayberry in the Phils organization but that appears to be wishful thinking. He still has that first round pedigree and can hit lefties with power and shows decent speed. I would still rank him in the Top50 because he still may capture a platoon role with a good Spring. Still not much of potential star prospect but I would think he will get more major league at-bats then many of the prospects in the Top30 (especially if I include all the pitchers!).

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      1. I don’t think I would vote Mayberry in the next two rounds.
        But I would consider him over some of the trailers on the list and by 38-45 I would likely be voting for him, though I admit I never even considered him until his name was recently raised. However that is partially due to the fact he does not come close to the 30 cutoff.

        However, there are those who highly value proximity and may want to vote and hence he should at least be on the ballot.

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        1. What I mean is that Mayberry has exceeded rookie eligibility. 50 games played in the majors, I no longer consider him a prospect.

          As far as his ability, he hit 267/328/412 last year mostly as a RFer. That line isn’t even good enough to justify keeping his current job.

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    3. Mayberry has a total of 69 AB, far fewer than our 130 AB cut-off, so he is eligible. I asked he be added him to the list, because I would like to hear him discussed and because I will vote for him next after Mathieson, who is eligible because his 39 IP is under our 50 IP cut-off.

      Cairo projects him very similarly to Ben Francisco as a major league hitter. The projection system is imprecise for minor leaguers, but it does account for both minor and major league past performance. While it may be optimistic, it may also be pessimistic, and the wOBA is about MLB average, which is good enough for me to consider him a major league prospect.

      avg obp slg wOBA BR/650
      Francisco .258 .319 .432 .326 80
      Mayberry .252 .313 .435 .324 79

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  10. Collier, He was generally considered 1st round potential and got the bonus to match.
    I suspect he was higher on the list last year before missing a year due to injury.

    Might never make it far, but at least he has lots of raw skills for the 29/30 spot.

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  11. I saw that mike nesseth is in camp already. He’s an interesting sleeper to see how he comes back from surgery.

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  12. post top 30 review (well its almost over)
    too high: santana, worley, aumont (tho we didnt know he’d be a reliever), Rizz
    too low: altherr (shoud be in santana’s slot), hernandez, castro

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    1. I agree, for the most part.
      Worley is too high. DeFratus is too high. Rizzotti is much, much, too high. Hernandez is much too low.

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      2. Completely disagree about Rizzotti and DeFratus. Both are placed about right. I can see Worley being lower depending on how one balances achievement versus potential, but that’s subjective. Agree about Hernandez.

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  15. Sticking with Rupp here and hopefully I’ll get to choose someone else for 30. He’s off to a good start.

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  16. On my list I had Nick Hernandez then flier for Walter as 29 and 30 so I figure I will vote the same. I did not have Garner on my list just because of his ‘rawness’. Nick Hernandez may not have enough velocity but he was been successful in low levels and was only 21 (same age as James, Castro and Hewitt).

    In review, I seem to agree with the Top27 group being included, though I tend to rank higher level and stats over potential and scouting reports, so the new draftees get a lower ranking from me. A fairly impressive system but most of the high ranking guys are very young. Maybe the Phillies can start getting ‘overhype’ value on their prospects?

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    1. I’m sure you already know this information, but wanted someone to call you on it to make a point. So I’ll bite. James, Castro and Hewitt are all a full year younger than Nick Hernandez.

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      1. It was not James’ comment but mine.
        I was just going off baseball reference age in their ‘stats’ data: all were listed as 21 for 2010 season.
        However, by birth date you are correct.
        Nick Hernandez: Born: July 30, 1988 in Hialeah, Florida, US (Age 22)
        Jiwan James: Born: April 11, 1989 in Williston, Florida, US (Age 21)
        Anthony Hewitt: Born: April 27, 1989 in Brooklyn, New York, US (Age 21)
        Leandro Castro: Born: June 15, 1989 in La Romana, DO (Age 21)

        I will retract my “reasonably young” argument and predict he is more likely at Matt Way type prospect. His injury does not help his cause either.

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  17. Nick Hernandez is my vote again. I’m hoping he’ll come back strongly from injury. If his season continued the way he started last year, he’d have a lot of top 10 votes.

    I live in CT and we have 77 inches of snow with 2 storms bearing down on us by Wednesday. It’s nice to know Pitchers and Catchers in 13 days.

    Hey Rickey Branch, I look forward to your ST missives.

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    1. Hope to make it down to the Complex and the minor league camp but just don’t know when yet. Looking forward more so this time than last year. Should be some good story lines. Especially at AA. Last year a lot of six year free agents in camp at that level but looks like it might be mostly Phils signees and the Lee deal “restockers” this year at AA. The other story lines at high A will be the Phils minor league “Four Aces” Cosart, May, Colvin and Pettibone plus Singleton in left and Valle behind the plate. And the story line at low A will be Altherr at third and Biddle’s continued developement as the lefty to eventually go with the “Four Aces” at A+. Can’t wait to get there.

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  19. D’Arby Myers Breakout Time! How can someone with such a cool name not make it to the show. You heard it here first.

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  20. I voted for Mathieson because I think his ceiling is still a back of the pen guy. Had him at 26. Zeid was my 27, Walter was my 28, Rupp was 29, and Pettis was 30. I didn’t rank Schwimer and Shreve, though both are easily in the top 35 with Hernandez, Eldemire and Barnes, though I didn’t place them into any order. Savery is my sleeper. Does that count?

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  21. I voted Mathieson. As a whole, I think we missed the boat dropping him this far. He’s a top 20 propsect, with a chance still to be a good MLB reliever. BA had him #13 in the Prosepct Handbook, btw.

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  22. I vote for Rupp.

    Don’t have Michael Nesseth appearing on any roster. Maybe missed that one.
    Thought he was one of the MONKEES.

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  24. Kevin Walter seems to have the projection to be a very good pitcher. I think his upside is higher than anyone else left. I like Rupp, but Walter is my choice.

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      1. Free_AEC, I actually liked the reports I read on Musser slightly better than the ones I read on Walter (more velo). However, those who actually have seen some of these guys play (and know what they’re talking about) ranked Walter higher. I tend to lean towards places like BA when it comes to a young guy with no stats to check out.

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        1. Why get caught up in current velocity with Walter. He has 2 potential plus secondary pitches already. Mathieson only threw 90 when he was drafted, now he is at 99. Walter could easily get to 94 in a couple years.

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        2. I would say Mathieson is the exception, not the rule. Guys sometimes increase their velo, sometimes they don’t. I’d rather have it than not.

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  25. Nesseth was a late signing plus he was injuired. Saw him around the complex last summer, working on the weights and rehabbing.

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  26. Got my John Sickels Prospect Book in the mail today–his writeup on Walter is encouraging. Thinks if the Phils are able to develop him the way they’ve developed other big HS pitchers, he can be in the class of Colvin, Cosart, and May. Lots of ifs, but good enough for #29 (which is also where BA ranked Walter).

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  27. Lots of good choices still available which is very encouraging. I went with Eldemire over Nick Hernandez for the last 2 spots but Matheson, Rupp, Walter, Musser, Pointer, Alvarez, and Collier are all reasonable choices as well. They’re my 31-37 choices but all seem like they’d have been top 30 in previous years. I’m not ready to give up on Hudson yet either. ST will be great because there will be more position battles this year than is normally the case.

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  28. Airborne, thanks for the comments on Nesseth. Wolever mentioned him by name on the air during the draft. Here is what MLB Bonus Baby said about him:

    “Mike Nesseth is a hard-throwing right-handed relief pitcher from the University of Nebraska. He was so raw as a freshman that he had to redshirt, and he didn’t start showing his potential until his redshirt freshman year, when he pitched at the back-end of the Cornhusker bullpen. He was poised to be an early pick in 2009 as a redshirt sophomore, but he was bounced continually between the bullpen and the rotation, and he scuffled to a rough finish, falling to the Angels in the fifteenth round and not signing. He returned to Nebraska and was having a rough time in the bullpen when he blew out his elbow, and he had Tommy John surgery in April. Scouts still see him as a potential setup man at the Major League level, though, and they’re still interested in drafting him. When healthy, he threw a plus fastball that sat 91-93, touching as high as 97 a couple years back. He could throw it virtually by anyone when he threw it for strikes. His big frame made it deceptive, too, so controlling it was the key for him. His breaking ball was a potential average slider, and that’s what held his ceiling down. Even though he’ll be rehabbing for the next year, teams are still looking at him in the tenth to fifteenth round range, and he’s likely to sign as a 22 year old junior with a long rehab stint ahead of him.”

    High-risk, but big velo upside. Sounds like a sleeper to me!

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      1. We’re talking sleepers here, Alan. Don’t sleep on 97mph! Besides, I don’t think Wolever would mention a guy by name if he thought he was set-up only. I suppose only time will tell – he might not even be healthy enough to pitch yet.

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    2. Sounds like exactly the type of reclamation project the Phils love. I really like that they mix in guys like that, its a good way to get talented players in the system without paying out big bonuses.

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  29. I usually don’t end up with an age limit on my lists, and I ended up with Tagg Bozied at #48 or so. Greg Dobbs just signed with the Florida Marlins, which serves as a reminder that the corner infield spot is wide open on the club. Bozied has a 283/356/502 career line at AAA and played parts of all four corners in Reading last season. Is it crazy to think he’s a candidate to make the Phillies as a bench bat this season?

    Also, Amazon.com has a pre-order price of $19.37 for the BA Prospect Handbook. You get it three weeks later but at a fairly significant discount.

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    1. I agree with you. Bozied is a non-Roster invitee and a long-shot, but there is room for him on the roster if he has an excellent spring training. The Phillies need a back-up third baseman better than Valdez and a right-handed pinch hitter to replace Mayberry when he starts. His chances also depend on how many relief pitchers they break camp with and on whether Brown makes the team.

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    2. If Dom Brown makes the team out of ST, there is only 1 other spot remaining on the bench unless they reduce their bullpen by one, which is possible. However, the one spot will go to either Michael Martinez or Mayberry because someone has to be the CF backup because it can’t be Francisco or Brown. If they reduce a bullpen guy like I expect, the extra guy will be an infielder and Tagg will compete with Orr, D Young and Barfield for that spot. Quinlan and Moss also have a shot if Brown doesn’t make the team.

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      1. Always figure on five bench spots.

        Catcher: Brian Schneider
        Utility Infielder: Valdez or Michael Martinez
        Four Corners Player: ?
        Fourth Outfielder: Ben Francisco
        Pinch Hitter: Ross Gload

        If Domonic Brown makes the team he’s the starter, or platooning with Francisco. I can’t see a smart team carrying both Valdez and Martinez. Also can’t see Francisco, Mayberry AND Brown on a team that already carries Ross Gload.

        11 or 12 pitchers. I’d love to see 11 but teams don’t often cut their bullpens anymore. My suspicion is that the Phils play it safe and carry 12.

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  30. I came in late on this party, but why no love for Nick Hernandez? Any top 30 Phils list without him on it is defective.

    Does Justin De Fratus have a large family who post here? How the heck does he end up that high, and above Julio Rodriguez? De Fratus is 23, a relief pitcher (failed as a starter), the only thing dominating about him is his ERA. The hits to innings and K’s per nine are nothing special for a relief pitcher in the minors. He’s a guy who could be on this list for a vote today, certainly he should not be in the top 15. Not in this farm system.

    Julio Rodriguez Age 20 at Lakewood:

    56.1 innings 32 hits 90 strikeouts for a 14.4 K/9 ratio

    Teams draft guys like Julio Rodriguez looking for a breakout like this, the jump in velocity that he found. Julio Rodriguez is now an easy top 10 selection in this farm system. Probably should be above Biddle. Putting him at #6 behind Trevor May doesn’t look out of line.

    Why so much love for Jiwan James? A .686 OPS at Lakewood at age 21 is not special.

    Domingo Santana. No one really believes he’s 17 years old right? And his numbers last year were nothing but poor.

    Aaron Altherr clearly belongs above James and Santana.

    Gauntlett Eldemire probably doesn’t belong on the list since he hasn’t had an AB yet, but he is a very interesting pick. Excellent production in college and has the full toolbox. Someone to watch this year.

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    1. For answers to all of your questions, I suggest you scan the comments of the middle rounds around or a little before the players you ask about were selected. You will find good arguments both for and against all of our picks.

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    2. While I am as intrigued by Rodriguez as anyone else, the lower rankings are justified by his stuff. 12th may even be a little high for me (more in the 15-17 range) as his velocity is all over the place in reports and is only in the 93-94 range in relief. If he could carry that velocity for 100 pitches then he becomes a better prospect.

      The other thing about his stuff is that it is a little non-traditional with a big slow curve ball that might fool younger hitters but not older and more experienced hitters. I like him as a prospect and he is a classic example of why we should sign a half dozen 18-year olds that throw 88-90 each year and see if some develop. But we should discount the stats a little because tools do matter. Some pitchers have the stuff to succeed at low levels (think Yohan Flande) but not really at upper levels. JRod is a little of a tweener. Hopefully he continues to progress because he could be top ten if he can continue what he did last year.

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      1. Myers isn’t top 30 or anything, but I don’t think he is quite a non-prospect yet. He’s still young for his leagues.

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  32. Are there really 51 people who think Nick Hernandez is a top 30 prospect?
    A pitcher who was not young for his league, who pitched a third of a season, has fringe stuff and is coming of injury?

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  33. Looks like Rupp at 29. Mathieson seems like an ideal #30. Often the last guy is a wild card, ala Josh Hamilton or Jason Neighborgall. A player with an unusual development path.

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