2011 Reader Top 30, #23

2011 Reader Top 30

Kelly Dugan edges out the expanded field to take the 22nd spot. Added in his place will be Perci Garner, Brian Pointer and Cameron Rupp.

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP
6. Sebastian Valle, C
7. Vance Worley, RHP
8. Jesse Biddle, LHP
9. Tyson Gillies, OF
10. Justin De Fratus, RHP
11. Jiwan James, OF
12. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
13. Domingo Santana, OF
14. Aaron Altherr, OF
15. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
16. JC Ramirez, RHP
17. Matt Rizzotti, 1B
18. Jon Pettibone, RHP
19. Austin Hyatt, RHP
20. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
21. Harold Garcia, 2B
22. Kelly Dugan, OF
23.

128 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #23”

  1. first time i didnt have a strong gut feeling about who i wanted…ive been callin for young guys and now im not sure and i dont have time to go back and review…its between overbeck hernandez and castro…im going with castro because he was solid all year…overbeck and hernandez showwed better flashes but castro was more consistant

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  2. I’m going with Zeid here…thinking he is going to have a huge year. Then after that Galvis, Castro, Schwimer, Shreve, Matt Way, Cameron Rupp, and Eric Pettis.

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    2. If you are going to make such a ridiculous statement, I can see why you want to remain Anonymous.

      To label Walter and Pointer as AAA fodder is indefensible and shows a total lack of understanding of how prospect development works.

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      1. haha calm down. there are still plenty of players who can make an impact but shreve is the only one with a high pedigree. obviously that doesn’t translate to a star, but it gives me more optimism that he can make a the type of impact that a regularly-championship contending team would need

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        2. Probs still hung up on the signing bonus he got and how glowing his pre-injury reports were. But then again, that Anthony Hewitt and Kyrell Hudson got some nice bonuses too

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    3. So basically you’re saying the million dollars the phillies spent on the draft last year will be nothing more then tripple A fodder? You’re a moron. Nuff said.

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  5. I really need to stop voting Cody Overbeck so early. But still, I think he’ll hit real well this season, if he’s not injured.

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  6. Castro and Alvarez are the highest rated players left on my board, but if others like Zeid or Schwimer better, I would understand the logic.
    I don’t feel that strongly about anyone outside of my personal top 19 or 20 anyway. I would just as soon vote for any one of Walter, Pointer, Musser, Garner, Rupp, Lino Martinez, Miguel Nunez or Maikel Franco to fill out the top 30.

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  7. Voted for Castro again. Several players make sense here though. Galvis, Zeid, maybe Shreve and Percy Garner.

    I suggest that we avoid adding more names the rest of the poll. Too many choices muddle the results and last I saw of the previous poll OTHER had maybe 10-15 votes total?

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    1. Next round I got your back, NEPP – Rupp is one of my “where the heck did this guy come from?!?!?” candidates for 2011

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  9. I voted for Galvis but, at this point, numerous players are, in terms of ranking, fairly indistinguishable. I could have made a perfectly good case for Schwimer, Zeid, Alvarez, Rupp, Hernandez, Mathieson, Shreve, Garner or Castro (that takes you to 31 prospects if you add the 23 that came before). I like Cody Overbeck but, to me, he is so old and has so many limitations that, if he’s in the top 30 at all (doubtful), it’s at the very end of the list. And I like Gauntlett – the guy who I’d pick as most likely to become the next Michael Taylor. But, as many have said, it’s a hell of deep group and you can actually see how much work they have done on the farm system. For there to be this many prospects after all the trades is amazing. Expect many more trades to follow in the coming years. Relief pitchers and “toolsy” outfielders will be among the most likely targets, although I also expect at least one or two of our high end starting prospects to depart in significant trades for position players – May, Cosart, Ramirez, and Cosart are the most likely targets (mind you, I am not advocating that they be traded, I am just trying to determine who I think might be traded). I think Colvin and Biddle aren’t going anywhere.

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    1. Biddle is too young to go anywhere for the next 2 years… though they could add him as a throw in like they did with Knapp (which btw would be super disappointing, I personally would rather them only trade players at AA and up… by the end of a full season at AA you know when you have a cole hamels or a ryan howard… or even a Ryan Sandberg lol .880 OPS in AA at the age of 20) which coincedentially matches most minor league trades, teams want MLB ready talent.

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        1. I thought about that as I was typing my post, and you’re right, he wasn’t just a toss in, but he wasn’t the centerpiece of the deal either. The point I was trying to make, was that including A+ and lower players in trades is bad business IMO.

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  11. Perci Garner… kids got upside to be a potential 2/3 starter or setup/closer. I’m a big fan of this pick though I admit the slight elbow tenderness at the end of last year is the only reason i haven’t completely pegged him as a starter, and this brings his value down. Either way, I’m definately looking forward to seeing him this year in the Penn League (assuming that’s where he goes).

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  12. I’m laying down the Gauntlett. His check arrived yesterday so now I am solely responsible for his PR for the 2011 season and making sure he secures a position in next years top 20.

    Obviously there are higher prospects than Eldmire here but you have to love the Toolsy OF types especially one from the Right Side with power potential.

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    1. and the fact that he doesn’t seem to be as raw as some of the other toolsy guys and he has a few years of college under his belt too. He’s around 25 for me.

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  13. I guess it hurts to be “old”. Eric Pettis was “lights out” in his debut into professional baseball. There have been thousands of others college pitchers who started out in Rookie Leagues who did not come remotely close to putting up Pettis like #’s in their first year. Check out these #’s below, I’m sure not all the hitters he pitched against were 18/19 year old HS Seniors. I’m sure many of them were also college players. Whatever he was doing, he was doing well. Did ANY of the pitchers ranked above him on the Top 30 have #’s anywhere close to these #’s in their first professional season? I am wrong to think that this guy must have some talent?

    W/L: 8-0, ERA: 1.37, IP: 59, Hits 43, KOs: 67, BBs: 7, KO/BB Ratio: 9.57/1, WHIP: .85 HRs: ZERO, Saves: 7 Starts: 5

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    1. Every year a guy like Pettis comes along. College senior comes in and pitches well in the pitcher friendly NYPenn. Cisco, Way now Pettis.
      Numbers are only a fraction of the equation. What does he throw? Has his body filled out yet? It’s like some just went to milb.com, sorted stat columns, then made a list.

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    2. Yes, being older than your peers is not a plus. It gives a definite advantage that has to be discounted in projecting future performance. He’s two years older than our top pitching prospects who tore it up in full-season Lakewood. He’s at least a year older than virtually all the guys he faced in NYP.

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    3. I watched Pettis in person. High 80s with his fastball. Great command, but that’s only going to carry him so far. I don’t think he rates among the top 30. I’m rooting for him though.

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  17. Been voting for Shreve and will continue to until he makes the list. He’s significantly lower on my list– I feel like next year he will have a Kyle Drabek-esque rebound from Tommy Johns.

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    1. Yeah, SONAR was given before the fan poll last year. Helped me identify Harold Garcia and Johnathan Villar as breakout candidates.

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    1. I had sort of forgotten Nick. Yes, his spot should be coming up soon. I still like Shreve over him. Hernandez was a little old for Lakewood, especially for a LA player. Still, can’t argue with his stats much. Only quibble is he doesn’t have quite the K rate of the other Lakewood starters.

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  20. At this point in my list im voting alot more on upside and talent then i am on performace. I voted for Perci Garner this time…. but in my mind he is on the same level as shreve, musser, pointer, and maybe eldemire. the rest of the guys on the list obviously have more track record but they dont have the potential that these guys have.

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  21. I vote Galvis here, don’t buy all the OPS jive, two of the components are dubious for this type, such as the belief that he will not be but a #8 hitter in the NL so batting ahead of the pitcher any walks would simply be a product of Pitcher malfaesance, and extra base hits in the minor leagues may simply be a factor of many OF’s don’t get near enough to balls to legitimately call it an error to inflate the totals of others, and even legitimate doubles and triples are simply the product of hitting to an open spot and the running speed of the batter. Not a HR hitter, not unusual. Also some on here have said Rollins is worst hitting MLB SS, bull he simply had the least numbers of those proficient enough to get the requisite AB’s to be placed on a list doctored to prove a point. Could put up a list feet long of SS’s who did not hit for high average or power or any of the other guidelines , and about half would have been the most used player or their team at that position.

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    2. I don’t know what offensive jive you do buy, but I can’t find anything in Galvis’s stat line last season or over the years that stands out as a positive. Little power, poor BA, few walks, little speed or SB, for a guy with these characteristics, actually quite a few Ks. A glove is a good thing to have, but to be a starting ML SS you also need a bat and it is becoming increasingly doubtful that Galvis will ever develop one. Defensive wunderkinds aren’t all that rare. Our last was Anderson Machado. If he ever developed a bat he would be a starting major league SS. It never happened. Galvis has shown very little to give hope for his offense.

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      1. Allentown, I agree with your opine here. Glavis as far as i’m concerned isn’t a top 30 prospect. The vast majority of his tools are well below average, regardless of his age.

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    3. I think Galvis’ numbers are bad enough that its clear to everyone that he is currently a very poor hitter and needs to improve to make the majors.

      A clearer part of the debate is if he could improve sufficiently with another 1-2 years in AA/AAA to be a legit player in the bigs.

      The bar for the SS position is likely the lowest except perhaps for catcher, which aides him.

      One point I try to make for a Players Defense is that if they can PREVENT one hit every 3 games, that would be a similar benefeit to making a hit once every 3 games, which could be close to .080 to #8s BA based on about 12 ABs in 3 games.

      Of course it’s tough to judge how many extra outs a fielder may make and RF9 can help, but that can vary so much including who is fielding near you and the type of pitchers on your team (Fly vs Ground, for example.)

      At this point, Galvis still needs serious work even when giving him some serious credit for extra outs, but I’m willing to hold out hope that at still a young age and advanced league he might develop a bat. Unlikely, but not impossible.

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      1. Can you imagine Glavis being a .270 Ave .310 OBP 30 2B 10 HR player @ the MLB level? I’d bet my paycheck against that. I hope he proves me wrong starting next year @ AA or AAA. If he puts up an average over .265 with an OBP >.315 and a Slugging >380, it’ll extend my hope for another year. But if he repeats, or only slightly improves, he’s done in my book.

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        1. A 21-year-old who doesn’t hit well in AA is done in your book? That’s a little stringent.

          MWGRAD has the right thought process – he has glaring problems but also obvious strengths. He is not too old to have given up on the chance he can improve upon his weaknesses.

          Another way to think of it is if he were in the NYPL, what sort of OPS would he have had? Would we be more excited about a 20-year-old in the NYPL who had an 80 glove and a league average OPS? I think we would. Why are we unable to have perspective on his age relative to level for his whole career?

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        3. If Galvis had those numbers with his fielding, he likely be in the top 3rd of the shortstops in the league.

          That is a somewhat normal line for a normal fielding shortstop. Denying a hit is as good as making one IMHO which means he could be a below average hitter if above average fielder and be average.

          If you can then take that average player at a $500.000 Salary and plug him into an everyday role, you now have significant funds to spend elsewhere.

          No he has not gotten my yet, but he certainly one day be a player playing at non-arb dirt cheap values could be value add, even to a very good team since every team except the Yankees has holes they can’t fill due to team salary constraints.

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    4. Marfis, I don’t know if it is a sign of improvement on the part of nowheels (I now agree with him frightenly often), or just how egregiously bad your posts are, or, more likely, a bit of both, but you increasingly make him look like a baseball Einstein by comparison.

      More particularly, you can (somewhat) reasonably argue that Galvis may improve dramatically as a hitter, or that he has value even as bench player in the majors even if he doesn’t learn to hit, but the idea that OBP and power just don’t matter at all for a #8 hitter, and that Galvis can be a major league regular for a contender if he can just increase his BA a little – is insane.

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  22. I am sorry but you need to decide who is a prospect and who is not with guidelines.
    Mathieson was named by the Phillies top minor pitcher of the year and he is in the running for #23. He should not be eligible as it just makes the list a joke

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    1. I have Stutes #34 IIRC. Decent relief prospect but not a guy I need to start boosting on a poll like this.

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  26. I voted Galvis, if he could somehow hit around .280 next year, I think that he would become a top 5 prospect.

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    1. If Rizzotti could up his HR output to around 50 this summer, he’d be a top 5 prospect. That’s not likely to happen, either. I think Hyatt would be top 5 if he could get his FB up to 98 mph.

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      2. As my mother-in-law used to say, “I’d have bacon and eggs for breakfast, if I had any bacon, but I don’t have any eggs.”

        Galvis is wanting in several areas, contact (BA), getting on base, power, speed. A’town is right, he is unlikely to improve dramatically.

        That said, I will be happy to see him improve any significant amount. If he could hit even like Nick Punto in his better years, in say, 3-4 years, that would be nice. But that type of transformation is rare, and is usually accompanied by dramatic changes in conditioning/physique (see Rizzotti) and mental approach at the plate. I will hope it happens but not spend a lot of time expecting it. There is too much going on with more likely prospects to follow a pipe dream too closely.

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    2. It’s not unreasonable for him to improve his average by about .045 since he will be repeating a level, although it will more likely take 2 seasons, at which point he’ll finally be age appropriate for AA.

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    3. Wut?

      Him hitting .280 would still have a .600 OPS which is still terrible, because that would translate to what a maybe .500 OPS in the majors.

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  28. Voted for Miguel Alvarez:
    NYPenn age 20, avg 329, obp 361, slg 453, ops 815, 13 steals.

    Castro had a better year in NYPenn last year then Alvarez had this year, but I think Alvarez has potential for growth. He is 6’1, 172 lbs. He had 21 doubles in 68 games. I think when he fills out, some of those doubles will turn into HRs. I can see why others don’t like him though. Needs more walks.

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    1. I had him mid-20s myself. But I’m certainly wary about that K/BB ratio myself. I’m concerned that he might be a BABIP fluke.

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    1. Would have considered Stutes as a top a 30 prospect if he kept his title “best slider in organization”. Zeid has it now, so he gets the top 30.
      Stutes’ control isn’t good, so there is no guarantee the Phillies will ever promote him. The Phillies tend to double jump or promote guys to the majors, who show control. Especially Right Handers.

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      1. Relievers who come into a game with a lead and then walk people are infuriating. I think it’s a sign that they have no confidence in their stuff. I like hit H/9 and k/9 rates, but over 5 BB/9 is just way too much. If he could get his control down, I think Stutes could really turn into something.

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  31. Marfis’ comment is borderline unreasonable but he appeared to make a comment about making a list. Well since Baseball-Reference.com has the Play Index, why not make such a list?

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=NAanV

    70 shortstops who have accumulated 1500+ plate appearances since 1994. Of those…

    OPS above .900: 2
    OPS above .800: 8
    OPS above .700: 39
    OPS above .600: 69
    OPS below .600: 1
    Median OPS: .710

    Obviously we’re hoping for something a little better than Juan Castro. On the whole, there are some useful players at the bottom of that list but also players who you didn’t want to see getting a whole lot of plate appearances.

    Let’s say Freddy Galvis is Cesar Izturis. Izturis isn’t a great player but he’s had a career. Is that type of player worthy of inclusion on a top prospect list?

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    1. Even Cesar Izturis was a better hitter than Freddie Galvis in the minor leagues.
      Izturis at age 19, had a 738 OPS in A+.
      Galvis at age 19 had a 585 OPS in A+, in the same league.

      Izturis didn’t play AA ball, but hit 681 in AAA 21. So if Galvis, hits over 700 in AA, this year, I would consider him on Izturis’ level.
      If he were legitimately on Izturis’ level (which he is not) then he would be a legitimate top 20 prospect (Which he is not).

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      1. Izturis Minor League OPS numbers were: .457, .603, .738, and finall .531, so he had more variation but overall very similar to Galvis as a whole.

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        1. You conveniently left out his final OPS of 681, at age 21, in AAA. Point is, Izturis hit for a higher OPS than Galvis at low A, at age 18. Hit MUCH higher at A+, at age 19. Got double jumped to AAA, struggled, then hit 681 at age 21 in AAA. Izturis hit better or at a higher level than Galvis every year in the minors other than GCL.

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      2. Izturis’ season was a batting average fluke. I think you’re a little ham-fisted with the Galvis approach. I don’t think that he’s a great prospect. But adding 50 points to one’s OPS going forward from the age of 20 isn’t overly optimistic in the slightest.

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        1. Adding 50 points to his OPS this year isn’t overly optimistic at all. The problem is 50 points more would still be terrible.
          Galvis would have to raise his OPS 115 points, this year, in order to be compared to Izturis… and Izturis isn’t a great compliment.

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    2. If you could promise the Phillies that Galvis would become Cesar Izturis Part Deux, they would take that in a heartbeat.

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  33. C’mon people. Prospect rankings are all about upside & Miguel Alvarez has more upside than anyone here except for maybe Brian Pointer.

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    1. I have him as #21 on my list. I just have Galvis before that so I voted for him. I think if he has another good year he could become a top ten prospect. I don’t see why no one votes for him.

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    1. IF Valle walked more, he could be another ‘Pudge’ Rodriguez
      IF Castro walked more he would be another Mike Cameron.
      IF…

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  36. Galvis- Since the topic was supposed to be if Galvis himself could be a Major League Regular the best guage might not be those SS’s with a significant qualifying number of AB’s over an extended period, since those keeping a job that long would tend to be better hitters, admittedly. To look at a single season (using the most recently completed so as to defeat the outdated thing) and to show the participants as SS’s for individual teams (and somewhat heavily used MI reserves as they are likely to have been starters at some point in the season) and show similarities to Galvis’ current numbers at AA (given some improvement given he is 20 now and using the theory that that will be offset by declining numbers at higher levels (neither theory I subscribe to, but let’s just say he remains the same as now).

    I selected the most used SS’s for a team or somewhat frequently used MI reserves for team going by most Plate Appearances and found similarities to Galvis’ numbers now among 10 teams or 1/3. I list those with BA below .250 and OPS not much above .600.
    Name….Plate Appearances…BA..OBP…SLG…OPS
    Baltimore
    The aforementioned and “controversial”
    Cesar Izturis…513 PA (most)…230….277….268….545
    Julio Lugo (res) 264 PA….249…..298….282…581
    Well Baltimore is one team right in the ballpark and that’s pretty much all of SS except for some lightly used who did not reach those standards. Another is ..
    Seattle
    Josh Wilson 388 PA (most) .223,.278,.294,.572
    Jack Wilson (res) 211 PA, .249, .282,.348,.598
    That’s pretty much all for Seattle at SS , except for some Chris Woodward , I figure ,who did not do as much as these guys.
    Atlanta
    Yunel Escobar 301 PA (most) .238, .334, .284, .618
    note: numbers on list are of players finishing season with team in question
    Mets
    Jose Reyes did all right , but two well used MI reserves:
    Ruben Tejada (res) 255 PA, .213, .305,.282,.588
    Alex Cora (res) 187 PA, .207, .265, .278,,543
    Nationals
    Alberto Gonzalez (res) 198 PA, .247, .277,.578
    Astros
    Tommy Manzella 282 PA (most) .225,.267,.264,.531
    Brewers
    Alceides Escobar 552 PA (most).235,.288,.326,.614
    Pirates
    Ronny Cedeno was slightly above the cut off line for this as were numerous other starters and reserves but has been ragged on by many on here.
    Bobby Crosby (res) 175 PA , .224, .301, ..295, .595
    Cardinals
    Brendan Ryan 486 PA (most) .223,.279,.294,573
    Padres
    Everth Cabrera (res) 241 PA, .208, .279,.278,.557
    End of List
    See, if Galvis maintains fielding and can be at some point in the mix with similar performances as above , he can be an MLB regular and that should place him ahead of some of the players remaining for consideration on this list.

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    1. The fact that Galvis can perhaps – perhaps – match some of the worst regular and semi-regular shortstops, only one of whom was a true regular on a decent team … doesn’t support your argument.

      It just boggles the mind how anyone with any baseball knowledge at all can look at the above list of players and think – “gee, let’s get US a player like that.”

      Oh, and let’s not even mention the fact that most of these guys were MUCH better hitters in the minors than Galvis.

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      1. “… these guys were MUCH better hitters in the minors than Galvis.”

        Exactly.

        The worst hitting players at the position were better than Galvis when they were developing. Logic says he would be even worse, than the worst of that list.

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    2. What doesn’t make sense with this post is that many of the guys listed are NOT regulars specifically because they don’t hit enough to keep an everyday job. The rest are on bad teams which may have something to do with the fact that they are starting a position player who is a black hole in their line-up.

      The question with Galvis isn’t if he could be a sub-par injury replacement or a part-time player on a bad team. Not sure putting together a list of SS who aren’t good enough to hold down a regular job is the best way to sell Galvis.

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    3. The point of a plate appearances threshhold is specifically to pick out players who actually had careers. Players who are bad at the plate but good defensively rack up playing time. If they weren’t good enough to stick around the majors, that’s not the type of player we want as a basis of comparison.

      As an experiment I tried using 500 games instead of 1500 plate appearances. That would cover guys used more as defensive replacements, right? The only player added to the list was Tim Bogar (career OPS .627). It seems clear to me that the minimum OPS is .600 for a utility infielder if you’re the best defensive shortstop in baseball (John McDonald). .680 is the minimum OPS for a defense first regular (Yuniesky Betancourt, Jack Wilson). Below that you have players who held jobs for a few seasons, but didn’t keep them.

      As an aside, I can’t believe I didn’t notice the Alex Gonzalezes the first time around.

      AG1: 1386 games, 4988 at bats, 298 doubles, 29 triples, 137 home runs, .248 batting average, .695 OPS
      AG2: 1396 games, 4977 at bats, 274 doubles, 27 triples, 137 home runs, .243 batting average, .694 OPS

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    4. Ryan may be in some ways the best comp (in the sense of supporting your argument) because he was the one guy who was a true regular on a contending team, and he is very good defensively. But he hit MUCH better in 2009 and as a minor leaguer – last year was a down year as a hitter for him. And the Cardinals thought that they needed to replace him in 2011 to get a better bat in the ineup (ironically in this case perhaps incorrectly, given that the guy they are replacing him with isn’t very good).

      Which is to say – Ryan is the BEST argument you have, and Galvis needs to improve a LOT as a hitter to reach that level.

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      1. I don’t think the Cardinals looked for a better bat as much as that Tony LaRussa has a fetish for guys like Ryan Theriot.

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      2. To play devil’s advocate – the case for Galvis ultimately is that he could become Ryan, looking at Ryan’s career, not 2010, numbers. His career offense (.259/.314/.344 ) represents the minimum offense a very good fielding shortstop can manage and still be an adequate regular on a contender.

        But Galvis’ chance of reaching that level is low (again, compare Ryan’s minor league numbers). The only reason I think here is SOME (<10%) chance that he will make it is that there is some (small) chance that his offensive skills will "catch up" with his aggressive promotions.

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        1. Here’s a question. I’ve been looking at MLB shortstops and projecting backwards. But can we find an example of a player who hit that poorly at AA and went on to an MLB career? I have a hard time finding an Eastern League player who produced a sub .600 OPS in the first place at that age, let alone finding one at Galvis’ age. You just don’t see his type often, which makes him hard to project. (And by his type, I mean a poor hitter that young promoted that aggressively. Most aggressively pushed poor hitters are older organizational types.)

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        2. I know I’m inviting trouble by mentioning this name, but Alcides Escobar had similar peripherals to Galvis, up until 20. Problem is, he pretty much hit 50 points higher. Escobar exploded at 21 in AA. Galvis boosters could look to Escobar for hope.

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    1. Well, we still have guys on the list with legit chances to become MLB players. The high-ceiling guys are gone at this point though.

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      1. Well, the high ceiling guys who have actual stats to point to favorably are gone. The largely untested 2010 draftees, whom I’d sooner wait until next year to list on a top 30, and an injury comeback like Shreve or Rosenberg are still high ceiling. You are correct that we are now at the stage where it comes down to guys with limited ceiling vs the basically unknown. If you want ceiling, Shreve, Musser, Pointer, Garner and to a lesser extent Eldemire and Rupp are your guys. If you like surer things with less potential impact, then Castro, Rosenberg, Way, Pettis, Galvis, and Hernandez are your guys. Alvarez and Maikol Franco, Bonilla, and Manzanillo are sort of in-between guys.

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    1. Lugo is a decent guy around 30. Good stats, good size, 20-year old at Lakewood. A little light on the Ks for a reliever, but a WHIP of 1.1 will grab your attention.

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      1. Wondering how Lugo, a reliever with OK peripherals could be considered before Miguel Nunez, a Starter.

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        1. Nunez is intriguing based on age and size, but his ERA and peripherals for GLC CLW weren’t good. I’m going to wait until he puts up good results to list him on the top 30. I’m not planning on listing Musser or Pointer this year either, fully expecting they will make my 2012 top 30. Projection and scouting raves are great, but let’s at least have them get on a pro field. For not an INC. I don’t devalue relievers as much as many of you do. When a team spends over $20 mill on its pen, it’s clear to me that there is great value in growing your own relievers. A lot of draft picks surrendered over the years to sign FA relievers, also. I vividly remember when we lost two primo picks in the same year to sign vet relievers. If guys like Schwimer, DeFratus, and Lugo prevent this sort of travesty from ever again happening to the Phillies, then they are well worth their spots on the top 30.

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  40. OTHER: Maikel Franco
    3rd baseman, 17 years old, good patience, with a couple proffesional HRs already on his resume’. Probably the top 3B prospect in the system.
    I think he and Marlon Mitchell will take the biggest steps forward next season.

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    1. I have high hopes for Marlon Mitchell too.
      With Franco, it will be interesting to see where they place him and the rest of the 3rd basemen. They must have a high opinion of him, since they rushed him straight to the states. He has relatively the same numbers as Mattair in the GCL, and they skipped Mattair to Lakewood, I assume for ABs.
      The problem for Franco, is Carlos Alonso, Adam Buschini, and Travis Mattair. Alonso probably deserves the Lakewood job based on performance. Buschini, if he isn’t cut, will probably repeat. Mattair has to repeat Lakewood for the 3rd time. This log jam will probably be solved by cuts, but you never know.

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      1. Franco is a year younger at 17, so I would assume he will stay in one of the short season leagues, ideally Williamsport but even GCL if we draft another high round college 3B.

        Lakewood will be an interesting question. Probably Alonso splits the job with either Buschini or Mattair and one of them gets promoted. Buschini probably gets one more good chance because of his high draft slot. One of them probably gets a shot at Clearwater because we have no other answer there. Probably Mattair because he has at least shown something in flashes, especially defensively. Getting out of Lakewood’s huge park might help his power as well.

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        1. Buschini shouldn’t get promoted to Clearwater. He is a butcher in the field and he is barely a better hitter than Hewitt. If Hewitt is being left back, Buschini should be held back too. Shoenberger or Barnes can play 3b at Clearwater, as they both did some last year at Lakewood.

          I do agree that Franco likely goes to Williamsport.

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        2. I think its an age thing for Bushini though. He’s getting to the point where he either produces or he finds a new profession.

          Going into his Age 24 season, he cant stay in Lakewood.

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  41. Just to toss a name out that has not been mentioned.
    He is Likely somewhere in the 30-50 Range However.
    Albert Cartwright who we picked up from the Astros.

    If I had to guess, Harold Garcia may move to AAA and Cartwright takes over in AA so that both players get a chance in upper levels to show what they have.

    I think Cartwright at this point is definitely no more than the 3rd best 2B prospect for this Phils and not the most advanced which puts him in a really bad spot.

    Likely his name would be of interest for those who are hesitant to vote for the drafted rookies who have not played at all or more than 1-2 games.

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    1. At first I figured Orr/Barfield at AAA, Garcia at AA, and Barnes at A. Now with Cartwright in the mix what happens? Does Barnes play another spot like 3b and Cartwright play 2b at A? Or do you have Garcia at AAA, Cartwight at AA, and Barnes at A?

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      2. Barfield and Orr are there to get to the majors. If they do not make it out of camp I think one will leave the Phillies to try another org.

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  42. So much talk about everyone other than the top vote getter (so far). Hard to see what is not to love about a prospect that is highly intelligent, excellent k/9 ratio throughout career, no health issues, continuing to develop a complete quiver of pitches. Schwim will be THE AAA, RHP, bullpen go-to guy before the season is done. His non-roster invite demonstrates what the organization thinks of him. It’s gonna be fun to watch him continue to develop this year.

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    1. I see Schwimer as a Jon Rauch type. I don’t think he will be a closer in the bigs but more of an 8th inning guy.

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    2. Solid fastball, good slider and great peripherals.

      Scwhim should see a Phillies uniform at some point in 2011…hopefully he sticks when/if he gets the call.

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      1. He’ll see a Phillies uniform in March, actually. He’ll even get to wear one.

        Interestingly regarding Schwim, I wonder if he wouldn’t make a better starter than reliever. He has 4 pitches, two of which are plus, and the other two aren’t bad. Is he in relief because he loses velocity quickly?

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        1. Well yeah, he’s got an invite. I meant more as “on the 25 man”. I doubt he breaks camp with them but there’s a good shot with a couple injuries that he’ll be called up.

          As for 4 pitches, I though he pretty much throws fastball and two different sliders?

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  43. Cartwright- I have it as Orr or Barfield and/or one of Bocock/Rivero who does not start at SS for AAA. AA got Harold Garcia at 2B, Galvis at SS and backed by Hanzawa and Fidel Hernandez. No room at the Inn, Cartwright did not excell at AA, and no reason to keep him there as a back-up. High A is a problem, don’t see anybody with requisite experience level at 3B to consider putting at that position and that’s why I project Barnes at 3B. (Mattair has played LO-A but skipped out for a year and did not excel at LO-A anyway) Maybe Steven Batts , but since there is not really a 1B either I put him at 1B (Singleton to OF with J. James, Castro, backed my Michael Dabbs so not really a 1B candidate there). Buschini has enough of time at LO-A to move , so have as 3B candidate also or a reserve role at HI-A. Have Schoenberger at SS, and the 2B candidates at HI-A I have in order as Carlos Perdomo, Adam Buschini, Keoni Ruth, and Korby Mintken. I say Cartwright goes to HI-A.
    Franco- 3B candidates at LO-A I have as Travis Mattair, Carlos Alonso, and the underperforming so far Jake Smith. With the 2 other than Mattair I see as bench candidates (also perhaps the C Klocke can go some 3B). MI I have as Cesar Hernandez and Edgar Duran backed by Cale Owen and Matt McConnell (so there is really no need for the HI-A guys to drop down or for Hanzawa being kept in HI-A.)
    Franco I see ticketed for Extended Spring Training and then assigned to Williamsport after the draft. It worked all right for Cesar Hernandez.

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  44. Schwimer. Think he will make the majors but something like a Geary-type. I have no idea where to rank the draft picks and I think Galvis and Castro are bench players.

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  45. MLB.com came out with the top 10 prospect lists for each position. Domonic Brown is 3rd for Outfielders (only behind Mike Trout and Bryce Harper), Jonathan Singleton is 4th for 1st basemen, and Cesar Hernandez is 7th for 2nd basemen.

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    1. Austin Hyatt didn’t make the top 10 pitchers list. Odd, I kept hearing he was a better prospect than Cesar Hernandez.

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      1. Forget Hyatt. There were a number of other guys voted over Hernandez because of the lack of understanding of what is a “prospect”. Continuous debate, because guys can not understand that minor league relievers do not have nearly the prospect value of minor league starters. At least 30% think that Rizzotti is a better prospect than Hernandez, even though Rizzotti doesn’t have any major league comparable. The embarrassing Hyatt/Hernandez vote was just the cherry on top. It showed that the majority of voters don’t know how to judge prospects and these lists shouldn’t be taken seriously.

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        2. Maybe Hernandez would have ranked higher if he had played in AA and flashed a good glove. People probably would have given him the benefit of the doubt had he not hit well. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

          I didn’t realize that having a major league comparable was so important to being a prospect. I thought it more important to perform well against higher levels of competition. I suppose we should avoid uniquely profiled players.

          In sum, I agree with you a lot mike77, but I’m starting to be embarrassed by it.

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      1. Hmm. He could rate as high as 7th perhaps. Can’t see him in the top six. The rest of the OF list is speedy OF leadoff types. Pimentel is very raw, I’d take Singleton over him in an instant.

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  46. Having chosen the “most likelies” on the list, it seems now we are confronted with an official guessing game…more so than with the prior picks.

    There are plenty of guys that were drafted in ’10 who put in little work in pro ball allowing a delay in judgment. IMO, it takes 2-3 pro ball years to locate the real prospects with some exceptions for guys who spring forth right away, like Singleton.

    Among the guys not yet chosen for this list there are likely 3-4 out of the dozen or so who didn’t have much playing time…yet, but should show their cards in ’11`.

    All of which sets the table3 for minor lg player watching; predict that these few 3-4 guys emerge in ’11 and will progress to more favorable position at ’11s season end.

    All of that is what makes this site unique…i.e., watching the ML players plus their eventual successors.

    Looking forward to PP’s list for further discussion.

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  47. I took a look back in the 2007 Prospect Handbook yesterday. It was amazing to see the deepest position in our system was actually shortstop! 4 of the top 30 prospects resided there. Domonic Brown had just been drafted but did not make the top 30. Strange how much can happen in 3-4 years. One thing is for certain though, I think this prospect class is much deeper.

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  48. Marfis also said the Nationals, position by position, are much better than the Phillies….maybe Galvis can play for the Nats this season?

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  50. Zeid. Lights out performance in Sally championship game propels him to even greater heights in 2011. So it says here.

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  51. I have to stop voting now as I saw the first name on the list (Brian Pointer) that I cannot identify.

    Anyway . . . is it just me or does this already seem like the longest offseason ever?

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  52. The Eagles and Sixers are not making it go any faster either…I could use some daily Kyle Kendrick trade rumor updates to make the next few weeks go by a little faster…

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