2011 Reader Top 30, #22

2011 Reader Top 30

Harold Garcia easily takes the 21st spot, meaning we have 9 spots left to go. Going forward, I’m going to attempt to add more names who are mentioned as a write-in, just because we have limited spots left, and its better to put more choices on there than leave someone off until we get to #29, when they may have no chance to get voted in. I’ve limited it to 9 names per spot till we’ve gotten to this range, since it never seemed necessary to expand. But with spots running low, we’ll give it a try.

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP
6. Sebastian Valle, C
7. Vance Worley, RHP
8. Jesse Biddle, LHP
9. Tyson Gillies, OF
10. Justin De Fratus, RHP
11. Jiwan James, OF
12. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
13. Domingo Santana, OF
14. Aaron Altherr, OF
15. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
16. JC Ramirez, RHP
17. Matt Rizzotti, 1B
18. Jon Pettibone, RHP
19. Austin Hyatt, RHP
20. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
21. Harold Garcia, 2B
22.

71 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #22”

  1. I voted Dugan. He was the phillies top pick in 2009 and he has a lot of potential. I have him at #17 on my list.

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  2. Sticking with Leandro Castro. I think Dugan’s a good choice too though. I think Dugan probably profiles as a corner bat as best and his in-game instincts need work if my one look is any indication. But I think Dugan’s stick is legitimate.

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  4. Other: Pointer

    I know we dont know much about him, but he was a bonus baby from the last draft and apparently has some pretty good skills. Figured i would throw his name out there for the last few spots.

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  8. Great. A lot of names to choose from. The ‘Older reliever voting block’ may get split early, so maybe someone else may get a chance to win this spot. I have Castro, Dugan and Alvarez back-to-back-to-back on my board in this range, so either would be a good choice, IMO.

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  9. I have Shreve rated higher than Pettibone so it’s Shreve here. Leandro Castro will follow and I have Mathieson next. I might make an executive ruling to say Mathieson is no longer considered a prospect so Freddy Galvis will follow. I’m still undecided.

    Castro is a very talented prospect. He had 81 RBIs and 78 runs scored. This guy is a run producer. He also had a lot of assists from the LF spot. He’s also played some CF. He had 22 SB with 13 CS. He has some speed but maybe needs a little more coaching on getting jumps and when to steal. He’s a free swinger so his BBs aren’t abundant but he was only 21 and he has time to get better.

    Why am i talking up Castro and voting for Shreve? I don’t know. I guess I wanted to get a jump on my next choice.

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  10. dugan number 1 pick for a reason…still alot of decent possibly great names left (meaning young kids) so the top 30 should be real solid

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      1. He was not a 1st round pick, but was Philly’s 1st pick in his draft year, it depends on what your definition of #1 pick is.

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        1. I voted Dugan, but his being a high pick shouldn’t really be the reason to vote for him. If that were the criteria, Joe Savery would be on here.

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  11. Went with Schwimer here. think this is a good spot to begin mixing in some of the higher performing/advanced relievers who will most likely fill a role in the pen over the next couple of years. I don’t consider Mathieson a prospect anymore so Schwimer is next in line.

    Not sure yet what to do with the 2010 draft class since there’s almost nothing to go on with them other than a few random remarks from various internet sources.

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  12. At this point, I will likely be voting for our Well Paid 2010 Signings who have given us no guidance if they will succeed or completely flop with the 26-30 or maybe 27-30 slots since I’m having a hard time really liking most of the people left, but I will reserve my votes up to that point to folks who have actually played in our system.

    I don’t have strong feelings, but I will do a slight flop to Dugan from Castro, but honestly I don’t have strong feelings for must of the guys left.

    The person I keep wanting to vote for but can’t seem to be able to do is Galvis.
    I’m really hoping that actually sticking at a level will help him develop his bat to a modest level.

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  13. Went with Dugan – I think he really needs to show us something at Lakewood this year, but he seems like a good choice. I’m trying to figure out the how the remaining slots will shake out (in no particular order): Schwimer, Eldermire, Galvis, Zeid, Shreve, Castro and probably a couple of dark horses from the 2010 draft is my guess

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  14. Castro, but I’d be fine with any of Dugan, Shreve, Schwimer, Zeid, Alvarez, or Walter. The water is pretty muddy at this point now that the two infielders are off the board.

    If we’re adding names, how about Franklyn Zavala, Anderson Gonzolez, Pointer, Musser, M. Franco, Morgado, and Garner? I’d rather see these names than some already on the the poll.

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  16. Went Eldmire for no reason other than we know very little about him. Everyone else on the list seems to be a known quantity. Easily argued any of them could turn out to be decent Pros but would you say any of them have a shot at being impact Pros?

    Castro intrigues me a bit but in the end Eldmire’s tools and his limited time in the system allow me room to dream big on his potential.

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  18. I went Schreve. Going forward Zeid, Dugan, Schwimer.
    Don’t see the argument for Castro this high. He looked a lot better in 2009 than in 2010. He really doesn’t seem to have a strong skill and lacks a corner OF bat.

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  19. Honestly, I’d vote for Schwimer over many of the guys still up (excluding the 2010 signings and Zeid). I just don’t think any of the rest have all that impressive of a ceiling.

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  20. Keep on with Galvis. Looks like he may actually may get in within the next 6 rounds as he is polling well, though Dugan has a slight lead in last view, Zeid, Castro, Shreve, Schwimer also polling well . Looks real close so far. Hope pre-polls closing returns do not influence voting, just like NBC News does.
    Alumni news- John Urick bobs to surface to sign with Cubs, Ozzie Chavez to White Sox.

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  21. Jonathan Mayo and mlb.com rated Domonic Brown the third best outfield prospect in baseball. He managed to slip in a Darryl Strawberry comparison for good measure.

    Its hard to find a good comp for Brown honestly as there aren’t many tall power/speed prospects. A healthy Cliff Floyd seems reasonable.

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  22. Sigh, voted for Mathieson again–feel like he belongs around here. Wonder if I’m throwing my vote away at this point, but then again I saw he did merit a new profile on the site, which means he still meets someone’s definition of a prospect.

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    1. On Mathieson…it’s been posted numerous times that he no longer fits MLB’s definition of a rookie. He didn’t last year either, but was still voted in the top 15 I believe.

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        1. I’m also not sure that’s it’s the case, technically speaking, that he’s not eligible for rookie status. The argument is that service time accrued while on the DL counts against his eligibility. Just looking at the fine print at the bottom of those Jonathan Mayo “ProspectWatch” columns that people were linking to yesterday on MLB.com, I see this:

          “To be eligible for the list, a player must have rookie eligibility. To qualify for rookie status, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues, or accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the 25-player limit period, excluding time on the disabled list or in military service.”

          Seems like the DL doesn’t count. Anyway, like I said, not a huge deal, but I figured I’d correct what appears to be misinformation. Who knows, I may be wrong. But anyway, PP said we could vote with him if we like.

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      2. You are wrong, Mathieson still meets the Major League requirements for a rookie. He only has 21 days on the active major league roster, he is allowed up to 45 days to qualify as a rookie. In addition, he has pitched only 39 innings while he is allowed up to 50 innings to qualify as a rookie.

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      3. Whatever sites are posting it are WRONG. Look up the rules for a rookie and count up the days he was on the active roster. You will find that he is in fact rookie eligible. And If he made the Phillies roster for 2011 and if he had a great, great year he could win the rookie of the year award.

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        1. Hey, I think you misunderstood me. I’ve been arguing that he is eligible for rookie status. I was just restating the argument others have been making in order to contradict it. We are in agreement. No need for the ALL CAPS!

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      4. Why doesn’t he? He is still Rookie of the Year eligible. The folks in the system thought enough to make him the Paul Owens Award winner last year.

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  23. Went with Shreve here. I actually have him as #16 on my list ahead of a bunch of guys that have already been voted in. It’s more of a gut feeling than anything logical, I admit. But something about the guy has me thinking he’s poised for a good to great 2011 season. For his (and the Phillies) sake, I hope that I’m right.

    After Shreve, I have Dugan, Galvis, and Rupp to round out the Top 25.

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  24. It’s not a surprise to me that the votes are spreading out across a large number of prospects. When i started my top 30 process, I downloaded all the statistics form the minor league teams. I went through and pulled out the guys who i thought could be in a top 30. I ended up with 40 guys to start. 41 actually, somehow I lost track of Dugan. After that I tried to rank them. I’ve shuffled my #20 to #30 guys repeatedly. I realize that a lot of these guys are so far away from the Majors that they can barely be seen with the Hubble Telescope. Some guys are closer to the show but their chances of making the team hinge on carrying 12 pitchers or a number of significant injuries or another utility guy with a good glove or who can hit lefthanders etc. I’m hoping in a couple of years I look back at my top 30 and say how did I rank that guy #28 or #29 when he’s an all star?

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  25. Voted for Zeid. Starter at Lakewood last season. A little old, but excellent numbers. His future may be in relief, but time will tell.

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  26. Everything I’ve heard suggests Zeid’s future is absolutely in relief and that decision has been made.

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      1. The offseason reports I read said that Zeid would get double-jumped if he were made a reliever. I’m almost certain that’s the case.

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  28. Zeid. Comparing relief pitchers to high ceiling guys, it’s a no brainer when the high ceiling guys have clear star potential and at least some stark of performance that showed it. When the ceiling guys get a little iffier, I tend to simplify things and swing over more to the guys who have the best chance to be good in their role, whatever that is. It seems a few relievers fit that category. Zeid/Mathieson, Schwimer. Scottie has been discussed to no end and is an outlier–not sure how Phils see him, so I am bracketing him for the moment. Zeid has not had any down stretches so far. All good through SS, A-, AFL, which is a good indicator.

    As others have said, you can pick ’em a lot of different ways, and I like all the guys on the ballot, although Mitchell and Overbeck are probably not top 30.

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  32. I don’t get all the love for Galvis, Juan Bell made the majors with a good glove with more speed but he didn’t help his teams win games. I have seen other people mention that he could be a viable replacement for rollins b/c the rest of the team will carry the load offensively. I beg to differ b/c if the phils want to keep winning you can’ t have easy outs in the lineup no matter how good his defense is. boston, the yanks, rays, and rangers don’t trot out good offensive players 1-9.

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      1. Do you see some of the pitchers they Trot out?
        And some of their hitting is questionable.

        And they trot out some bad defensive player.

        There is a Limit to what a Team can spend and the Phils are closer to that limit than ever.

        If they can save $8mil at SS by playing Galvis who can field great, the $8mil could go into someone even better elsewhere.

        The result could be an equally good hitting lineup.

        Sure we want players who are great fielders and hitter at ever position, but that is rarely the case.

        The point for Galvis is not that he could ever be as good a player as Rollins or simply replacing Galvis with Rollins would be better. However, Galvis PLUS an $8Mil upgrade elsewhere on the team could balance out.

        Sure, it would be great to have a SS prospect with Rollins offensive and defensive skills to replace him in few years, but we are dealing with options and generally SS is a weak position for many teams so we are not losing much relative to most teams.

        Rollins would not be my first choice, but teams could do worse than a No-Hit Gold Glove Caliber SS.

        Furthermore, at 20 and at AA, he certainly could improve with his bat. Wishful thinking.

        No, I have not voted for Rollins yet because of his bat issues which do concern me but I will not ignore his glove.

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        2. I see your point but to me it seem like your forgetting that utley and howard are getting up in yrs and won’t nearly be as productive and with the exception of brown I don’t see any other offensive players coming down the pike in 2-3 yrs. (maybe singleton). So that leaves the free agent route, and honestly how often do teams let their best players hit the market, your gonna end up with carlos lee, jason bay, matt holiday’s of the world, good players but not on par with utley and howard, and very few like textiera or pujols. So the team end up with bad contracts and freddy galvis.

          Of the 30+ ss in the mlb’s right now glavis would be one of the bottom 3 even if he hits .240

          I know that SS is hard to fill but this is 2011 and the not hit all glove SS is a thing of the past.

          Tulowitzki for Galvis straight up.

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    2. Rangers had Elvis Andrus (.265/.342/.301) start all season. Julio Borbon (.276/.306/.340) also nearly had 500 PAs.

      Rays only had two regulars with over an .800 OPS. They also started two with an OPS under .700 and gave significant time to two more (Brignac and Aybar)

      The Yankees and Red Sox were another story but the point is that good teams, even high scoring ones, can and do get away with fielding players who are “easy outs”. Hell, the Phillies won a World Series with two of them (Feliz and Ruiz.)

      Of course Galvis needs to improve. No amount of defense is going to make up for a .233/.276/.311 hitter. If he can even put up a .650 OP in the majors with his defense he could provide good value.

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      1. “Easy out” Pedro Feliz, notches Major league OPS’ of .700. Freddie Galvis can’t get to .600 in the minor leagues. There can be no assumption that he can hit for .600 in the major leagues.
        Every weak hitting major leaguer I’ve seen compared to Galvis in the last couple days, hit more than 740 in AA in their first try. What major leaguer hit for a .585 OPS in AA. Please tell me.
        This assumption that Galvis will get promoted to the major leagues, then suddenly hit major league pitching better than he hit minor league pitching is beyond ludicrous.

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        1. I have no idea and have not researched it at all, but how many of those weak hitting major leaguers made it to AA at 19 years old?

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  33. “I realize that a lot of these guys are so far away from the Majors that they can barely be seen with the Hubble Telescope.”

    Definitely the quote of the day.

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  35. Really have tough time with the rest of the list.

    For some reason I have a bias toward Leandro Castro. I had him high on my initial list and have kept dropping him. Even, I only think he profiles as a 4th OF. Best case I see him as a Francisco type: some power, speed, can probably squeeze some CF innings. But he does not walk, K’s too much, hits for a low average, has not dominated at any level, and just really does not have any obvious major league skill. For me, I just think he will be an unsung hero type.

    I put in my one time vote for Mathieson just because if he was included I would have had him barely in the top20. Very reasonable to exclude him in my opinion though.

    The only guys I have confidence that will make the majors on the candidate list are Galvis and Schwimer, mostly due to their current level.

    Highest ceiling guys for me are Shreve and Walter. Shreve is old for his level but lost time with injury; so do I judge him based on post high school pitching seasons or on physical age? Did the injury hurt his raw stuff? Zeid pitched better at the same level and is less than a year older. I only have draft info to judge Walter so he probably is my #30 prospect flier.

    I also like Nick Hernandez since he is a lefty, was quite good in two seasons, and is age appropriate. But it sounds like he is more of a control lefty (like Way) which limits his ceiling and ability to switch to a relief role. Will he recover from injury?

    I voted Schwimer because I think he has a reasonable chance to hit his ceiling as a set-up reliever (a $3M+ salary), while I think Galvis is just a backup. Really do not have a problem with any of the young guys either just not enough information.

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  37. Two Words for Freddie Galvis lovers.

    Anderson Machado.

    “Anderson Machado, a highly-touted shortstop, played well defensively but once again struggled with the bat.”

    I hope that Galvis who has been pushed one level above the league average age,
    starts and stays at AA Reading all year. Still young the light bulb could turn on.
    He is not in the top 30.

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  38. And on cue, the evening vote manipulation. Funny how certain nominees have made up large deficits very quickly, at the end.

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  39. I voted Dugan.

    When do we put Joe Savery on the ballot?

    I think Savery will hit the daylights out of the ball now that his career depends on it. Hopefully he will use his pitching experience to refine his approach as a hitter. He has some pop. I look forward to following his story.

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  40. SirAlden, how many young, high upside guys have flamed out? Just because Machado did, does not mean Galvis will.

    I find it disappointing that people are giving credit to players who have not played at all in the minors, thinking they might be good, but not giving credit to Galvis who just played a full season at AA at the age of 20, thinking he will never hit.

    Finally, say that Galvis will never be more than a defensive replacement. He should at least be evaluated in line with the relievers on this list.

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  41. Except that a middle reliever is worth more than a defensive replacement infielder. Brian Bocock is a defensive replacement SS and people are complaining that he’s taking up a spot on the 40-man roster.

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    1. Darwin Barney, a slick-fielding SS for the Cubs, was a defensive replacement and sometimes starter for the Cubs at the end of 2010. He had 85 ABs and an OPS of .585. He had a WAR of 0.3 for the season.

      Chad Durbin had a WAR of 0.3 for the season.

      I don’t think defensive replacements and middle relievers are all that different in their value. Conceptually they are similar – they step in to help out for a bit for a regular player. Middle relievers have more responsibility for the inning they pitch than the fielder has for the inning he plays, but fielders can be used more frequently than middle relievers.

      Why, when we can be *sure* Galvis could be a defensive replacement, are we voting for *potential* middle relievers instead?

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      1. Chad Durbin’s War of .3 cost the Phillies $2.125m in 2010 while Darwin Barney made league minimum? So which player was more valuable?

        Note. FA Wilson Valdez had a war of 1.7 and made league minimum as well. Threw this in just incase I get the service time/FA argument.

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    2. You one of “those in the know”? I looked around and did not see any of this on http://www.philly.com milb.com beerleaguer, csnphilly.com or anyplace else. You a team insider letting out some advance information? Don’t see the reason to release that many players now anyway, because they do not have to pay them for a while and the number of players they have for the various teams for Spring Training seems about right. So , where does this spring from?

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  43. first good us history/movie knowledge on durant…from phone i can only comment at bottom unless maybe i switch to full…oh well…im meant dugan was our first pick i think most people understood where i was going…but i voted on his potential…savery has already proven he did not hit his potential thats why savery is not on list

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  44. I must say, I continue to be impressed by the depth of the pharm. No right answer at this point, but I voted Galvis because he has demonstrated the tools to play defense at SS in the bigs. No hitting, and odds are he won’t ever, but it’s also the case that not very many prospects ever develop his fielding skills (if he’s as good as reported). That’s good enough to make him #22 in my book. I also like Schwimer, Dugan, and maybe Perci Garner somewhere around here.

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