2011 Reader Top 30, #18

2011 Reader Top 30

Matt Rizzotti takes the 17th spot on the list, edging out Jon Pettibone. A few guys got a write in vote, so we’ll go with Josh Zeid.

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP
6. Sebastian Valle, C
7. Vance Worley, RHP
8. Jesse Biddle, LHP
9. Tyson Gillies, OF
10. Justin De Fratus, RHP
11. Jiwan James, OF
12. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
13. Domingo Santana, OF
14. Aaron Altherr, OF
15. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
16. JC Ramirez, RHP
17. Matt Rizzotti, 1B
18.

73 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #18”

  3. Went Pettibone here, he had a great end to last year and I think this year will be a breakout for him.

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  5. Garcia is a better prospect than Pettibone, but Cesar Hernandez is little better than Garcia… and DeFratus and Aumont and Rizzotti and Hyatt …

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  6. Pettibone. Peripherals schmeripherals. Look at them APR-JUN last year vs. JUL-SEP. His K rate isn’t big and maybe never will be, but there are successful MLB starting pitchers without high K rates. But BB/9 was way down second half, HR/9 was down, and his GO/AO is pretty good over the whole year. He’s the kind of guy whose frame could allow him to add velocity, and if he can further develop one his pitches and make it more of an out, he could start missing more bats. So he’s got potential to improve, and he showed over the course of a season that he’s capable of doing so.

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  7. Went Hyatt again here. This guy misses bats at every level. Of all the latest metrics used to valuate pitchers, there’s few that matter more than a guy who can punch out hitters at a high rate. Hyatt has done this at every level while carrying a more than acceptable walk rate along the way. He’ll turn 25 in May, but should also finish the year at LHV. Pettibone in sight for me, but not here.

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  8. I changed my mind again and voted for Zeid. It was a close call between him and Hyatt, but the write-ups on Zeid have been very good and he is highly regarded both by scouts and by those who write about prospects for a living. I also saw him pitch on TV and liked what I saw – I wasn’t blown away by any means, but I think he has ability. In terms of his size and his stuff, he actually reminds me a lot of Schwimer, although he probably throws a bit harder.

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  10. I feel like I’m going to be voting for Galvis for the rest of the poll. He plays the most difficult defensive position on the diamond at an elite level. The Phils think he’s so good that they pushed him to AA at a young age. Obviously he can’t hit worth a lick yet. Hopefully that can change. Perhaps Hernandez has a higher ceiling, but Galvis’s proximity outweighs that for me.

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  11. Holy Shizza batman RIZZ made the top 20? Congrats to him and his stock holders. I motion we give Pettibone the 18th spot and call the rest “The Field” mostly because I’m lazy and really not interested in splitting hairs beyond a top 20. Then redo the order June 1st after we have more data to work with.

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  12. Will any 2010 draft picks make it in this top 30 other than Biddle? Pointer/Musser/Garner/Walter?

    I went with Hernandez. I think Hyatt/Hernandez/Garcia/Galvis are all given for the top 30. I am not sold on Alvarez. He didn’t make my top 30. Also Schwimmer needs to get some props soon. I think the trend heads towards all but maybe Alvarez from the list above making it, meaning 4-5 more need to be added to the list.

    I like Nick Hernandez. A lefty who dealt with some arm issues he throws strikes and had a nice year in Lakewood before going down. he struggled when he returned but didn’t need surgery. I have him in my top 30.

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  14. I wrote in Scott Mathieson. I don’t care deeply about where Cesar Hernandez or Pettibone are ranked, and I think Mathieson belongs someplace in the top 20, seeing as he’s got a chance to break camp with the Phils this spring. The front office is interested enough in his future that they brought a Hall of Fame reliever in to tutor him last season, although of course you could argue that that is a sign of their frustration with his inability to develop good secondary pitches. Anyway, he has a higher percentage shot at being a major league player than anyone else on the ballot, and at least an outside shot, considering his velocity, of becoming a significant contributor if he can avoid a recurrence of injury–granted, a big “if.”

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  15. I like Pettibone, but I am always a little bit skeptical of end of the year surges in performance. A lot of the top prospects are called up to the next level and you are left with raw or lower level competition. Not saying that his numbers aren’t neccesarily going to go back down, just a little skeptical. I went Hernandez here for that reason.

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  18. I voted Hernandez. If I still counted Mathieson as a rookie-type I’d vote him here, actually I’d have voted him before here.

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  20. I ranked Pettibone higher than he is here.

    But every time I look at video of him, I want to rank him much lower.

    Hes going to be a tough guy to really evaluate going forward.

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  22. “Peripherals schmipherals… there are successful MLB pitchers without high K rates “.
    Yes there are MLB pitchers with low K rates. But almost all of those guys had high K rates in the minor leagues, especially in A ball.
    Of the NL starters, with 162 innings or more, only 11 had a K/9 less than 6. Seven of those 11 had K/9s over 8.2 in A ball. Only Dave Bush, Chris Volstadt and Kyle Kendrick had K/9s under 7.0 in A ball. Kendrick is the only regular starting pitcher in the National League that had a lower K/9 than Pettibone in A ball.
    I don’t see what is so hard to understand. If you are not good enough to strike out A ball hitters, you may not be good enough to start in the majors.

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  23. Mike,

    I agree with you on the strikeout rate for a pitcher in the minors being important. My hope for Pettibone is that his low total last year was a learning transition. He was over 9 the previous year in SS ball.

    Truth is that he’s not thrown enough innings yet to get a good read on whether or not the K-rate is a ongoing concern.

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  25. @Section 113.

    Yeah, other than Biddle, I don’t know that we had any standouts this year in the draft. I think that guys like Rupp, Eldermire (who due to injury was kinda forgotten about – I wouldn’t be surprise if he is the 2011 winner of The Michael Taylor Award), Musser, Walter, Claypool, Garner, etc all might get some consideration but none of them really stood out in the short season

    – Jeff

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  27. also, phils signed former first overall pick matt anderson to a minor league deal with an invitation to st and john mayberry changed his number from 40 to 15.

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  28. Matt Anderson, 1998 in the minors. 0.66 ERA, struck out more than a batter an inning. 21 split between A+/AA, then went to the majors and barely fell below the innings threshold, producing a 3.27 ERA there.

    Where would this pitcher have ranked in our top 30 if he existed today? Better numbers than DeFratus, younger, closer to the majors. Top 10 at least, right?

    Anderson over the rest of his career produced a 5.59 ERA. Consider this your relief pitcher/proximity cautionary tale of the day.

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  29. Then again MLBTR says he had a severe shoulder injury or something and velocity went from around 100 to around 90 or something, and he has not seriously pitched in a while , or something.
    Keep on with Galvis here.

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  30. As to the point about Mathieson being too old–his rookie eligibility hasn’t expired, obviously, and as far as I know we’ve set no hard and fast rules about age limit. It’s true that he’s going turn 27 in a month, but the years of injury obviously make this a bit of a special case. Obviously, they’re not comparable as players for a wide variety of reasons, but Josh Hamilton made his debut during his age 26 season, so there’s obviously no hard and fast rule about when you write someone off as a non-prospect. My feeling is that you should do so when you no longer have any hope that the player will succeed as a major league regular, and I’m not to that point with Mathieson yet. Again, I could be proved completely wrong, and Alan’s point about proximity is well taken, but my feeling is that once you get down into this part of the list you’re dealing with more questions than answers, and I think Mathieson should at least be on the ballot for consideration.

    That said, maybe there’s an age cutoff for consideration I don’t know about. If so, I’d appreciate a ruling from the chair.

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  31. I just reread my comment and realized that I used the word “obviously” like 4 times in four sentences. Obviously, I feel embarrassed about that.

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  32. Also about age, I think that Daisuke Matsuzaka was the #1 prospect in all of baseball at the age of 26. I am not 100% on this but it is just off of the top of my head.

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  33. Matt Anderson was the only player drafted in 1997 that the Phillies couldn’t draft. You might remember (or choose to forget) the Phils had the #2 overall pick and chose JD Drew. They could have had Troy Glaus, Jon Garland, Vernon Wells or some guy named Jason Werth (don’t we know him?). Or at least taken a guy with an interesting name like Rocky Biddle or Tootie Myers.

    Did you know that Drew’s real name is David Jonathon Drew? Shouldn’t he be DJ Drew? Sorry that I had to bring up that soured spilt milk.

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  34. OTHER: Michael Schwimer
    Seems he doesn’t receive the same level of PP fan relief pitcher worship, since his piece criticizing autograph hounds.

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  36. You might say that Hamilton and Mathieson are both guys whose entre to MLB was delayed by medical issues.

    But when considering people for this list, IMO we are looking at players who are “new” and hold a promise of a significant career; Matty represents a guy who most of us admire for his long fight to overcome his repetitive arm surgeries. I assume that we’d all be pleased should he make the team out of ST. We probably realize that ’11 is his near-final shot to make a MLB roster. Hopefully, the Phils.

    But I believe the org feels they owe him a real shot, or trade him with/w/o Blanton (?). It would be great to see him in Philly in ’11. But I don’t know where to place him on this list. Does he belong here?

    Yet: watching the team break in both he and DeF would be great to see on our 25 through the season.

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  37. Other: Mathieson

    Agree with most on Pettibone here. If I recall correctly, he made some adjustment/improvement and then pitched much better after that. That makes me think he can sustain that success. He still has projection and maybe the K rate my rise. If not, maybe that caps his ceiling but getting efficient outs would still be quite useful for a #5 starter.

    Mathieson still throws very hard and that still is a big deal at the major league level. Seems like the Phillies do not like him as much as I do based on their use of him last year. Due to his prior injuries he likely will have shorter career. Why waste those pitches in the minors?
    He should have some kind of value for cheap teams. Plus teams are always looking for relievers at the trade deadline so maybe he will have more value then, if the Phillies are not going to pitch him.

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  38. For next round, I am having trouble deciding where to rank the middle infield.
    Hernandez: young, if last year was his 3rd out of high school then to still be in short season ball seems a little behind for me. The fact that he will be eating up option years with no chance to make the majors means he better be a regular when he gets there in 2014. I think my current decision for him is whether he has elite speed. If he can steal 35+ bases (80%+ rate) in the majors then I would rank him ahead.
    Garcia: old, had excellent year hitting for average, low hype previously so last year could have been lucky, seems to have good overall ability but no outstanding qualities. I think he will be a backup infielder.
    Galvis: very young, already has an elite skill but it is probably the least valuable of all the tools, has not shown much hope of ever hitting, does not have much speed, has no power, so little chance of getting walked or legging out contact grounders. But he happens to play the second most valuable defensive position so he will at least get Sept callups just to be a fielding replacement.

    I also like Hyatt because it seems that he has three capable pitches. I could see him having a Stutes, Worley, or Happ type of career. Zeid was at a lower level but I think he could progress similarly.

    I like Castro but since I think his ceiling is Ben Francisco (decent 4th OF with speed, power, moderate avg, and few walks), I always have trouble ranking him ahead of higher projected guys.

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  39. PhxPhilly, Hernandez is from Venezuela so I don’t know how that whole HS thing shakes out. If he had a normal education I would assume he graduated/finished at the age of 18 (second year of VSL) so he’s on the same track as your normal high schooler.

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  40. ***Mike77, what do you expect? His bribery cheques keep arriving unsigned.***

    +1 for the proper spelling of cheque.

    On Pettibone…yeah, have to agree with PP and others that have concerns on his ceiling. He got a lot of help from a great Lakewood defense last year.

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  41. Here is an interview with Darin Ruf:
    http://blog.blueclaws.com/2011/darin-ruf-checks-in/

    Also, I think that Cesar Hernandez is a little bit behind compared to the high school graduates. Cesar Hernandez would’ve graduated high school in 2008 and he played at Williamsport last year. Jared Cosart, Jon Pettibone, and Julio Rodriguez all graduated high school in 2008 and played at Lakewood last year. Brody Colvin and Jonathan Singleton graduated high school in 2009 and played at Lakewood last year. But then again, Anthony Hewitt graduated high school in 2008 and played in Lakewood last year but he is over a year older than Cesar Hernandez. So maybe he isn’t that far behind.

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  43. Galvis is #1 infield prospect: SS, AA, just turned 21.
    Hernandez is #2: 2B, A-, 2o.5. H. His stats make him seem very fast: 0 GDP 2010, 1 in 2009. 32/38 SB/attempt in 2010, but a very weak hitter: just 15 extra base hits in 255 AB in 2010 (up from 2009) including only 2 triples. Since his speed surely turns some singles into doubles, his power seems even less. No HR in the USA yet. His BB and K rates are good, giving him potential as a lead off hitter.

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  44. Cesar Hernandez has a recent successful comparable player for his skill-set. Louis Castillo. Hernandez numbers are similar Castillo. Castillo was younger, so he was the better prospect, but it shows that there is a place in MLB for Hernandez’s skills. No power, but high OBP, low K, base stealing, plus defense, will play as a regular in a MLB line-up.
    Galvis isn’t a better prospect than Hernandez. Galvis does not have the skills to be a regular in any line-up. He can’t hit, he doesn’t take walks, he doesn’t steal bases. He will be Wilson Valdez.
    It’s laughable, to consider Galvis better than Hernandez.

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  45. Mike, I have Hernandez higher than Galvis but only because the Phils saw fit to put him on the 40 man roster. They can evaluate talent better than I can so putting a guy who’s highest level is A- on the 40 man makes me take notice.

    BUT Galvis and Hernandez are essentially the same age. If you reversed their levels, Galvis to A- and Hernandez to AA, how would you rank ’em? I’ll bet Galvis would come out on top. No way Hernandez hits .240. Galvis has always been very young for the levels he’s played at. He has a glove that no other prospect comes close to. He also has streaks where he puts up big numbers and then it’s back to his .240 average. If he ever figures out what he’s doing right when he’s hot and is able to extend that through his career, say hello to you’re new SS. Of course what do I know, I still think the TeaParty movement has to do with my wife’s China.

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  46. Good to see Tim Kennelly break out of his slump over in the ABL. In today’s doubleheader he went 5 for 10 with a three run homer and a grand slam off lefthanded pitching. He showed off all his tools by throwing out a baserunner from right and stealing a base in the twin bill. So far, for the tied for first place Perth Heat, TK has played games at third and his natural position right and caught a game. Guess Savery will be battling Ruf for the first base/DH job and TK will be a utility guy in Reading. Don’t rule these guys out.

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  47. Mike—–I think you were attempting to insult Galvis by the wilson Valdez comparison but no way do the Phils win the division last year without him. Came up big at three positions. Valdez has an almost unmatched arm.
    It would be interesting to see what would happen with Galvis if he were to just try instinctive hitting. He always seems to be trying new approaches that have not made him look comfortable hitting.

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  48. I agree that Hernandez probably couldn’t hit 240 in AA, this minute. Any player jumped 3 levels would struggle. I also do not believe Galvis would struggle to get a 390 OBP if he was pushed back. But this is not about who could perform better in AA this minute. It’s who is the better MLB prospect.
    If Galvis was improving (even with the terrible numbers) it would be reasonable to rate him higher than Hernandez. Galvis was better at age 18 in Lakewood, than he was at age 20 in Reading. He’s taking less walks, and striking out like a power hitter. Nothing suggests he will be a good hitter. Even if Galvis added 30 points to his average, he likely would still have an OPS of only .650. He might have to stay in AA 3.5 years to approach .700. Hernandez may be in AA before Galvis graduates or the more likely scenario Galvis is sitting on the MLB bench impersonating Thomas Perez or Wilson Valdez.
    That is not a top prospect.

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  49. Correct above: Galvis WOULD strugkhgle to get 390 OBP in Williamsport.

    Also, not attempting to insult him by comparing him to Valdez. That is the type of player I honestly believe he will become. That level of player is available every year. Those aren’t top prospects.

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  50. I don’t really think anyone is saying Galvis or Hernandez is a top prospect. We are at #18 and neither of them have been voted yet. I personally have Hernandez a little higher on my list but I still like Galvis.

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  51. Freddy Galvis HAS improved each of the past 3 seasons, by moving up a level per year, to A, to A+, to AA, and keeping his OPS amazingly consistent .588, .587, .586 in 2008, 2009, 2010, A, A+ AA. If he had not consistently improved, his OPS would have decreased as he increased in level. Wilson Valdez has a strong arm, but he is not a premier SS. Freddy Galvis is already a better SS than Wilson Valdez. Galvis has not shined at the plate, but he has always been 2-years too young for his level and his average has been between .233 and .244. He has not a been a Mark Belanger or Mario Mendoza, struggling to hit .200. Galvis may not obtain a .390 OBP, but he might have had surpassed Herndez’ .767 OPS last year if he were back playing in Williamsport with Hernandez in 2010 where Galvis actually last appeared in 2007. Hernandez is faster and has a better eye at the plate then Galvis, but Galvis has more power and is a better fielder. They are just 6 months apart in age, 3 levels apart in league (mostly because of Galvis’ superior defense and defensive position), and both are protected on the Phillies’ MLB roster. I rank them similarly as midrange prospects, (just a hair behind Austin Hyatt), but Galvis is ahead of Hernandez.

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  53. When will Hyatt get some love ? His numbers out distance most of the pitchers on this list . How can major projects like Santana and poor performers like Aumont even be in the top 30 ?

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  55. Whatever happened to Nick Hernandez? Is he still recovering from an injury? I kind of remembering him having a solid season post injury.

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    1. Which is probably why you’re not an MLB scout.

      The scouts sure seem to like Santana so maybe we should trust his judgment.

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    3. I didn’t realize this was a top 30 minor league players list.
      I thought it was a top 30 MLB prospects list.

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  57. Peripherals schmeripherals. Interesting discussion, though. I’ve been convinced by the K/9 argument that Pettibone belongs much lower than Colvin on our list, maybe as low as #18. Oh wait.

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    1. Let me be clear. I don’t hate Pettibone, but I don’t like the uninformed argument that “there are big league pitchers with low K rates”. That’s stupid. We’re not talking about Major Leaguers, we’re talking about starting pitcher prospects.
      Pettibone has some things in his favor. He graduated young, so he has been young for each level. He still has time to mature physically. He doesn’t give up HRs. He might have another gear.
      It’s no crime that Pettibone is being voted #18, it’s just that Cesar Hernandez should’ve been voted in before him, top 15 or so.

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  58. Maybe Travis Mattair, who’s coming back to the Phils after a stint in college basketball, improves now that he’s fully commited to baseball. His numbers were modest, but i read a scouting report that said his makeup was off the charts, he would do better with a wooden bat, and that he would come into power. They also said that his future ability to hit was a project, not a reality, and Mattair’s numbers so far have shown this. He’s a big guy and compares himself because of this to Scott Rolen. Hopefully this kid emerges with a renewed focus.

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  59. Dan –

    As a former member of the Travis Mattair Bandwagon, I’m really skeptical of his return. He struggled to put up modest numbers offensively, and while he seems to have great defensive tools, he’s really going to have to turn it on to regain prospect statuts. I’ll be rooting for him, I just don’t know that he has what it takes.

    As for Schwimer, I’m surprised he hasn’t been mentioned much yet – I think he should probably rank in the 20-25 range. Yes, he’s a reliever, which hurts his status somewhat, but he’s darn close to the majors, has put up ridiculous strikeout numbers wherever he has pitched, and really seems to have a great approach on the mound

    – Jeff

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  60. I’m going for Castro here….

    I really don’t see Galvis, Hernandez, or Garcia being more than utility players at the most in the Majors. Galvis will never hit enough, Garcia’s age indicates he is likely getting close to his potential which is likely not enough to be a ML regular, and Hernandez was 1-2 leagues behind where he should be for his age which makes his OK numbers less impressive.

    The remaining Phil’s starts on the board are all old for their leagues.

    Castro likely is one of the few players with enough potential and youth to have a chance to really move up the boards. Hewitt could be interesting if he ever learned pitch recognition, but I’m not holding out much hope for that.

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    2. Castro is a year older than Hernandez and only one level ahead. If you logic is correct then Castro would also be 1-2 years behind, which he is not. Neither Castro or Hernandez is behind. So how does Castro have “enough youth” and Hernandez doesn’t? Castro was the same age as Hernandez when he played at Williamsport.

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  61. Just sayin’—

    According to scouts/pundits, etc. Cesar Hernandez is considered to be an excellent fielder. So both he and Galvis make a fine DP combo, were they to be playing together.

    Hernandez had an excellent season in the field, on basepaths, and w a good oba. His lack of power shouldn’t be annoying when we consider that he is and to be a leadoff hitter. He should be playing at Lkwd to start ’11 and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him climb to Clwtr sometime in the season. If so, wouldn’t he be age-appropriate (at 20 or even 21) there?
    His talents seem exciting to the Phils; IMO they see him as the best candidate to play 2nd base in 3-4 yrs, when he’d be 24 or so.

    What we all would love to see is if he had enough arm to play SS. With that position wide open, that would be great. But I suppose his “underarmed” nature has prevented that from the get-go of his pro career. (Anybody have a bionic arm laying around?)

    Galvis has severe shortcomings at bat, we know. With the weight/muscle gain over the winter prescribed for him, a gain of strength MIGHT improve those “power” numbers; would that also gain a better ability to make contact? )Better power numbers would cause the outfielders to back up some in defense, which could improve the result of dropping lesser hit balls to fall in front of them. But how much, if contact doesn’t improve.

    With all the analysis here of Galvis, most are rightfully questioning his hitting/running skills. Yet, we might be made to watch him in OUR infield if J-Roll has another lousy season. Reason to “pray” for J-Roll’s turnaround.

    At the same time “pray” for a much happier joinder in compatibility with Galvis and his wood bat.

    AND, see if RAJ can make a good trade for a coming-on SS. Please.

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  64. Hernandez, based primarily on the Phils protecting a SS-A player for the first time in the last 30 years. They must know something.

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  65. if we are arguing about potential future wilson valdez’s…then maybe we should be discussing the 2010 draft picks here…ex if rupp has the potential right now to be a starting catcher wouldnt that make him a better prospect than a potential utility IF..i know this argues against proximity but we ranked Biddle high even though hes really far away

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    1. I agree. I think at least 2-3 more of the draft picks deserve consideration for the top 30, just based on their pre-draft rankings and scouting reports. Percival Garner, Cameron Rupp, Kevin Walter, and Brian Pointer deserve consideration. Also, the international bonus guys who skipped straight to the states and played as 17 year olds: Mikail Franco, Miguel Nunez and Lino Martinez deserve consideration.
      These types never get any consideration in the fan poll. 3 or 4 will be included in the BA top 30.

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