JC Ramirez pulled ahead of Matt Rizzotti to take the 16th spot, and we now move on to #17. Leandro Castro picked up quite a bit of write-in support, so we’ll add him.
1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP
6. Sebastian Valle, C
7. Vance Worley, RHP
8. Jesse Biddle, LHP
9. Tyson Gillies, OF
10. Justin De Fratus, RHP
11. Jiwan James, OF
12. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
13. Domingo Santana, OF
14. Aaron Altherr, OF
15. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
16. JC Ramirez, RHP
17.
Phuture Phillies 
Please look at Pettibone’s stats. the only thing separating him from our number 4 Brody Colvin is strikeouts. Pettibone was quite a bit better than Colvin in WHIP. Same age, too.
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See my last comment. Pettibone’s peripherals do not support his performance.
Cesar Hernandez is pretty clearly the best prospect left on the list. He’s the only one left who made a BA League Top 20 list.
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While everyone is looking up those stats also feel free to look up Rizzotti’s stats from last year…
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Actually changed my vote from Pettibone to Hyatt.
This will be a very important year for Hyatt to see if he can continue to dominate in the higher leagues since he age is advanced.
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I loved hyatt. even voted for him a couple rounds ago. But I saw, though research, he might not make it since he is 24yrs. I voted pettibone
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Cesar Hernandez, 2B Best INF Prospect in the entire system.
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1flyfan, What does your research say about the chances of a low A pitcher with an average fastball who does not strike out many hitters making it? On the other hand, what does your research say about a 4-year college pitcher with a season and a half of pro ball who was voted starting pitcher of the year in both his league and for the organization of making it? Everybody on the ballot “might not make it”, but I’ve been voting for Hyatt since Santana and will continue to do so, because I think he has good upside as a starter or reliever and a better chance of succeeding in the majors than anybody else.
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staying hyatt…love the results…still have him beating out jc for 5th rotation spot when oswalt retires…jc can be the long man…then in 2014 may colvin cosart can challenge worley and hyatt for last two rotation spots because i think halladay has an option that year then 2015 will look like hamels lee and 3 of other 5…then when lee goes biddle can step in 2016…any questions?
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At this point, Hernandez has to be the best prospect left. Hits for average, walks, doesn’t strike out much, can steal bases, and has a pretty decent glove at 2B. Power is the only tool that he is projected to lack, but he profiles well as a lead-off man and power from a lead-off hitter is a luxury.
Pettibone had a great ERA and WHIP, but, as Alan has said numerous times, he doesn’t have the peripherals to suggest that he can sustain such success. Good pitching prospects will generally have at least two of these three: high K/9, low BB/9, low HR/9 (it would be preferable to look at GB%, but that data is spotty in the minors). Here are Pettibone’s numbers (listed first) vs. Colvin’s numbers in those regards:
K/9 – 5.76 vs. 7.83
BB/9 – 2.81 vs. 2.74
HR/9 – 0.69 vs. 0.46
Both have slightly above-average BB/9 rates, but Colvin is clearly better in K/9 and HR/9. Yes, Pettibone throws hard, but that doesn’t guarantee that he will improve his K/9 in the future – Brad Penny is one of the hardest-throwing starters in the majors but his career K/9 is 6.27, which is well below-average.
I don’t want to get into a Rizzotti flame war again, but his numbers are partially the result of a ludicrous BABIP. He had a .400-.440 BABIP until he hit AAA. The guys with the highest BABIP are fast line-drive hitters like Jeter and Ichiro (career BABIP of .356 and .357, respectively), not big sluggers. If we assume Rizzotti’s norm is a .330 BABIP (about as high as it gets for sluggers), then we see a guy who may have some potential, but is pretty old for his level and has to play the position with the highest offensive bar.
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Been hearing Rizzotti is too old for his level every year. If he makes the Majors this year is he going to be to old for that level too??? Maybe, they should create a Minor League “Senior” AA or “Masters” AAA circuit. Come on people… how old was Howard when he first got to the majors??? Rizzotti went to college, and now he’s at the mercy of the Phillies brass. Got a complaint about how they develop players talk to your boys Amaro, LaMar, etc… Sick of hearing the age garbage!
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Is Tagg Bozied a prospect, then? Bozied had a year comparable to Rizzotti’s at AA and his performance is much more sustainable. A 24-year-old in high-A is not a prospect. The reason Rizzotti was in high-A at 24 wasn’t because Amaro or Lamar was scheming to keep him down – Rizzotti hadn’t performed all that well at the lower levels up until this year. Rizzotti had 1100+ PA prior to 2010 in which he could have mashed, but he didn’t.
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Almost everyone in the Top15 has demonstrated (if inconsistently) some significant upside. So it will interesting if the Top20 stays with younger projection players or older higher level players. The ‘old’ guys, Rizzotti, Hyatt, H.Garcia, just came off great years but have they max’d out?
Pettibone seemed to improve during the season (stats and scouting reports), so his lower K values may improve this season.
Hernandez is obviously valued by the Phillies (who also value Bocock at this point) and has time to develop. I have not heard much on his tools so if anyone can post some of that info it might help his ranking. Does he have elite speed? Is he is a good enough fielder for SS? Does he has any power projection?
As others mentioned, Galvis is only 6 months older than Hernandez. I have no idea how to project Galvis’ hitting at AA to short season ball. His defense alone will get him some 25th man consideration in the majors.
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“Been hearing Rizzotti is too old for his level every year. If he makes the Majors this year is he going to be to old for that level too??? Maybe, they should create a Minor League “Senior” AA or “Masters” AAA circuit. Come on people… how old was Howard when he first got to the majors??? Rizzotti went to college, and now he’s at the mercy of the Phillies brass. Got a complaint about how they develop players talk to your boys Amaro, LaMar, etc… Sick of hearing the age garbage!”
Well, there’s a little truth to what you say in that players can’t control where they are placed, but if you’re not interested in hearing about how age affects the value of a prospect you’ve probably come to the wrong blog. Frankly, it does and you will hear it over and over and over again here.
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fyi . . . I voted for Hyatt again because the extreme K rates suggest to me that this guy might really be a find. But we won’t know that for sure until this year, when he gets tested out in AA and, perhaps also AAA. But his AGE combined with only so-so scouting reports makes me understandably shy.
By the way, in another development, I love that the Phils are exploring a John Maine signing. I always thought that, when healthy, Maine was just a hair away from being a truly dominant pitcher. I’m not sure where this will go, but, I like the direction and thought process behind their interest.
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Still baffled that Hyatt & Josh Zeid aren’t on the list yet. Yes they’ve been a little old for their leagues but, they have results and both are polished and could play a role on the Phils team within a year or two. I have little doubt that Zeid could be a good big league reliever if given the chance. His velocity + mix of pitches makes him a good bet to succeed as a reliever.
And on Hyatt, he may not have the highest upside, but a guy who’s held a K/9 over 10 across 4 levels a BB/9 in the 2.50 range, and a FIP in the low 2’s should get consideration in the 12-15 range IMO. If he puts together another season like last years
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Cesar Hernandez is easily the best prospect left on this list, but I will hold on to my vote until I see how the voting shapes up. I’m not big on Pettibone or Rizzotti (both should be in the 20s), but I would favor Pettibone in that match up.
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Garcia gets my vote here. Hernandez is next on my board after that. Garcia is fresh off a Minor league record number of games with at least 1 hit. He had an on base streak, of something like, 55 straight games (including some at AA). He has some pop. He can leadoff but can also hit in the two hole. His downside is he’s 23 to Hernandez’s 20 and his proximity. I know what you’re thing here. Garcia is very close to the Major Leagues and is actually getting some media speak about a utility spot. His proximity problem is Utley. He’s not going to displace Utley. Hernandez has 4 or 5 years to replace Utley.
I’ve actually presented the case of Galvis over Hernandez. 6 months difference in age, Galvis 3 levels higher than Cesar and Galvis with the glove tool that can not be denied.
If Galvis had Garcia’s bat, we’d be talking about trading Rollins or at least handing the job to Galvis outright next year (2012).
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Cesar Hernan,dez and Garcia are similar prospects, but Hernandez gets the edge because he performed well enough to make it to Lakewood a year earlier than Garcia. Hernandez had a .390 OBP and 31 steals in 60 games. He should be the choice in this spot. Garcia next.
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Pettibone again because he has not “maxed-out” his potential to improve. I’d take Brad Penny any day. Doesn’t he wear a champion’s ring or was he in one of those salary dumps the Marlins are famous for? I saw him beat Hamels two years ago and despite that 6 strikeouts per nine (he had considerably more against the free swinging Phillies) he was dominant. I think the Phillies have been high on Pettibone for some time and have brought him along slowly. This year should tell. Stats do not mean evrything. Does Steve Bilko ring a bell? Also, we are getting to the end of the top 20, I think Pettibone belongs here.
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Brad Penny had a K/9 of over 10 in the minors, genius.
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Another point in Hernandez’s favor. He did not ground into a single double play in 2010. He was also fourth in the organization in stolen bases despite played at least 35 fewer games than the three players above him. 32 steals in 65 games works out to 80 over a full 162 game schedule. He stole at a high percentage, 32 out of 38. He hit for average and worked the count. I feel we’re looking at an IMPACT leadoff hitter here.
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No mention of Josh Zeid. I definately think he is better then some of the names we are voting on currently (currently nine on the list). He will be 24 this year. I think he has a good chance to skip to Reading. He is 16-9 with 8 svs and a 2.93 ERA in two years. He has 183 k’s in 186 2/3 innings. He has a strong WHIP as he has only allowed 47 walks in two years. Finally coming off a good AFL season.
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I was responding to an earlier post without the benefit of a stat book in front of me. Thanks for the correction. Erasing the Penny remark, I still like Pettibone for this spot.
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The RIZZ then Garcia
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The scouts and pundits love Zeid and many have him ranked higher than number 15, so I agree he should be on this list.
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I’m still with Galvis for the fact that he actually has MLB value and is young. That said, I think the argument for Hernandez is strong.
I’m fine with Rizzotti here, but Pettibone I have in the low 20s. That’s not an indictment of him, it’s more a complement to the system. I will say that Pettibone turned it on for the last five starts of the year including playoffs: ERA: 1.91; WHIP: 0.79; H/9: 5.5; BB/9: 1.6; K/9: 9.3. Let’s hope that’s an indicator of things to come, not an outlier sample against diluted competition at the end of a season.
I think Miguel Alvarez is the one I am most interested to here PP’s take on. He is #31 for me, but clearly PP thinks much more highly of him. I’m looking forward to hearing why!
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This is Rizzotti’s year. If he performs well, he can earn a spot on the Phillies. Or, he could get traded. His placement here is justified, but for this year only.
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OTHER–OVERBECK
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I chose Hernandez again.
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Went Garcia even though I only view his upside as a super utility type. He has to be the first guy they call on should an injury occur to Valdez or Utley. Rank him ahead of RIZZ because he can play defense. If Hernandez were a SS I would love him but 2B in the majors is a different position these days. You have to have some POP in your bat to be an everyday player.
Honestly having a hard time now being excited about anyone left on the board. I guess I’m pulling for Galvis to breakout with the bat and will pay close attention to what Zeid does this season.
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I went Hyatt again.
And I agree with RPhils2011 I’m also a little tired of the age thing.
Ryan Howard was 24 when he got a September call and ROY year at 25 was a split season. His first full season was at 26 when he won MVP
Chase Utley was also 24 when he got his September call and split the next season at age 25 and his first full season he was 26 as well.
Carlos Ruiz didn’t get a September call until 27 and then 28 was his first full season.
Raul Ibanez got his call up at 24 and split seasons and was a bench player until age 29 with Kasas City.
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Hernandez is #11 on my personal board so I’m going with him again for all of the reasons put forth above by Alan.
May I suggest that we add Kevin Walter to our list of choices? Be good to get another 2010 pick on our list and Walter was a higher dollar signing. I’ve read that his secondary offerings are pretty good, though his fastball is only 88-90 he has some projection left due to his size (6″5).
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Pettibone again. He finished very strong last year, through the second half of the year, really, not just the last few games and the playoffs. July through the end he was 1.9 BB/9, 0.49 HR/9, 5.7 K/9. So his walks were way down, and his Ks were about the same, and his HR were barely above Colvin’s. The K rate is concerning, but if you’re getting ground balls at the rate he is, a few missed Ks isn’t as bad, because he’s keeping the ball down. His GO/AO according to MILB was 1.5 for the season, which is a good indicator, if not 100% reliable as someone stated above (I’m not even trying to do the math on that stat for July thru the end of the year). Colvin’s for the year is listed at 1.25. So to drag down Pettibone for stats and not look to see that he legitimately improved over the year last year, to me, is undervaluing his progress. We’ll see how it pans out, and I can’t really argue that he’s a better prospect than any of the pitchers already voted. But I will argue that he’s a better prospect than Rizzotti or Hernandez. Hernandez might break out, and Rizzotti might continue to impress, but for now, I think Pettibone is a strong prospect and ahead of both of them.
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Question. What type of value does Riz have if he’s still performing at his current level midway through the season?
Same for Savory. If he can hit .360-.390 vs righties does he have value?
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Time for Freddy Galvis, Not significantly older than the headin’ into Low-A Cesar Hernandez, and a legitimate SS defensively. Believe the reflexes will enable him to develop into the level of a high enough batting average for regular duty, and the other 2 components of OPS , what do they really mean for a #8 hitter if the NL continues with the non-DH thing or the #9 in a DH league. I believe those who thump the tub over those issues do so because they have always thumped the tub over those stats and reflexively cite these issues because it has been a method to distinguish themselves from those who cite them less. Also the Stolen Base thing is over-rated, because when Bill James invented his theories for a new method of evaluation he was able to do so because he believed walks and stolen bases were under-rated in the old system. Problem- he over-compensated and now walks and stolen bases are over-rated. Galvis should be worked in here soon.
Above- When said that Cesar Hernandez can take 5 years to supplant Utley. Problem if he takes 5 years he will be 25 and too old for AAA, and in the opinion of many on here a wash-out.
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I don’t evaluate players based on who is in front of them in the majors.
As far as stolen bases, that they were underrated before Bill James is one of the funnier statements I’ve read in some time. Lou Brock was overrated for all of his stolen bases, not underrated. Sabermetrics if anything underrated stolen bases, but one of the things statheads and traditionalists rarely disagree upon is that stolen bases are valuable if you steal at a high percentage.
DMAR, I addressed the offensive level of second basemen previously. We’re spoiled by Chase Utley, but many teams are running second basemen out who hit home runs in single digits.
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Hyatt still with no love and looking unlikely to break the readers’ Top 20. I predict he’s Top 10 in mid-season polls.
Jan 13th, Pitchers and Catchers are right around the corner. Hard to believe
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Dudes, age matters. Probably more at the extremes, e.g. if a 28-year-old mashes in AA you take it with a grain of salt but if a 20-year-old mashes in AA you know you have something special. Is 24 too old for AA? No. But most guys who turn out to be studs are sniffing the majors by 24, if not already playing in the majors.
If you are 25 and in AAA, you are most likely a fringe MLBer and will get cups of coffee for the next couple of years. There are outliers as people have cited above (FYI it is a poor argument to compare current minor leaguers to MLBers who have had All-Star-level seasons; it’s like comparing every guy who throws in the upper 80s with good control to Greg Maddux.). But by and large my generalization is true. Let’s hope Rizz is an outlier!
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Thanks for the critiques of Pettibone. I was wondering why he was getting such little support.
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Somebody want to do a compare and contrast on Hernandez and Garcia for me so I can get a sense of their comparative value/prospect-status?
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The reason I’ve been voting for Rizz since #15 is that I don’t view most prospects in the top 30 as sure-fire studs or even contributors. My perspective when voting on the list is after #15, you’ve got guys with potential who are high-risk, high reward like Freddy Galvis, and older guys who probably can get to the majors and contribute, though it might be from the bench. Who is more valuable in the long run, a guy like Rizz who could be a “Dobbs like guy”, with some trade value or Kelly Dugan/Jon Pettibone for instance, who has more tools, potential, etc, but may never make the show. Dobbs won some huge games for the Phils in 08, so Rizz might not be a classic prospect, but at this point in the list, I can’t overlook his performance. I’m not quite ready to lump Tagg Bozied and Rizzotti together.
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I will be happy when Rizzotti makes the list so I don’t have to read the illogical reasoning to justify why he is a great MLB prospect.
Not to mention the ridiculous comparisons to Adam Dunn, Mark Grace and Nick Johnson.
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Anonymous was me
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I’ve been voting Cesar Hernandez…how about Nick?
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i totally agree with the too much Rizz talk…i honestly think he is about 10 spots too early here but i think too many people fell in love with him last year…also i agree the current major league roster should have no affect on how we rate prospects…if it did we could get rid of all pitching prospects…i hope kelly dugan steps up big time this year and doesnt take path of hewitt and savery…also id like to see more gcl and nypenn guys ssoon as there should be better prospects there…it just we havent seen enough of them yet…may have to rely on predraft scouting
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Msb,
to respond to your question to which player is more valuable, lets look at it by how much teams pay different types of players.
A player in Greg Dobb’s category generally get paid around $1m-1.75M per season. Useful bench player but not exactly a major chunk of the budget.
A middle reliever like Chad Durbin – $2m-$4m per season or around twice as much as a bench bat.
A back of the rotation caliber starter – $4m-$8m as a FA or twice a much as that middle reliever.
A solid regular starting position player – $6-$12m per season.
An All-star caliber player/pitcher – $15m-$20m per season.
So for an organization, which is better, having 10 high-risk/high-reward guys where 9 never pan out but one becomes a solid regular starting player/All-star or a system full of Rizzotti level players who can fill out the bench?
Money wise, the team (especially a big market team) is much better off gambling on the talent to develop 1 all-star caliber player who plays cheap for the first 2-3 years vs. 20 low-ceiling bench players who if they make it to the majors, will only save the team $500,000 or so.
So to answer your question as to who is more valuable, I’ll take the high risk/high-reward guy everytime.
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The problem I think people have in accepting comparisons is that not all comparisons are used as comparables. I have used the Dunn thing before as a defensive comparable only, and I think it’s viable. In contrast, Rizz is old, projects to have way less power, and on and on, (and on and on). He’s not a comparable player, nor prospect, and any comparison to Dunn should show people just how far a lousy defender has to go to be a big time MLB player, and hence, how much less value he should have than a prospect who is actually a comparable to Adam Dunn, who would likely be in a top 5 list on any team.
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I’m not in love with Rizzotti, but certain guys get labeled as “non-prospects” on sites and sometimes it’s warranted and sometimes not. A few years ago, there was quite a bit of criticism of JA Happ as a prospect due to speed, stuff, etc. But his performanace always exceeded those critiques, and I’d say getting Oswalt for him and Vilar was pretty ok.
Again, looking at the list, I could vote alot of these guys at #17, but I’ll take Rizz for the year he had. Do I think he’s more of a prospect than Dugan/Castro at this point? Yeah, but that could change. And I am still hoping Galvis learns to hit consistently, cuz I’m not sure how long JRoll has left.
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You could also balance the Risk Reward this way…
Let’s say the Phil’s offered a Lottery at every Game which was $1 for every ticket sold.
If your ticket is drawn, you win that amount.
Let’s say that 40,000 Tickets are sold so the there will be a $40,000 Prize with a 1 in 40,000 Chance of winning it.
One guy is Selling his Ticket for $10 Bucks and one is Buying Tickets for $10.
Do you Buy, Sell or Hold? I would sell. Some would Buy. Others may hold.
My 3yr old son Clearly has more potential than Matt Rizzotti and Zach Collier, but his odds are far greater than either.
Zach Collier has more potential than Matt Rizzotti, but his chance of reaching the majors are lower than Matt R.
Some People are only voting on Max Potential which would make my 3yr old the clear #1 Prospect if he was under contract with the Phils, but since he is not we need to deal with those signed :>
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“will enable him to develop into the level of a high enough batting average for regular duty, and the other 2 components of OPS , what do they really mean for a #8 hitter if the NL continues with the non-DH thing or the #9 in a DH league.”
What some people don’t realize about modern statistical analysis is that some issues are more settled than others. De fence? Still significant controversy about advanced metrics. Pitching? Still at least some controversy regarding whether you use ERA or defense independent pitching stats (well, I think it’s pretty clear that defense independent pitching stats have more predictive value, but there are still arguments around the edges; e.g., we’ve been only partially successful in figuring out what type of pitchers can successfully maintain lower ERAs than predicted by their defense independent stats). Even “clutch” has some remaining controversy (it’s possible that for a few players there is some small “clutch” ability, even if it is mostly just luck; also, some analysts, e.g. Bill James, would say that we should take clutch performance into account, even if there is no such thing as underlying clutch ability). And even for areas where the data is clear (age/level projection issues), you’ll find outliers.
But one thing we know for 100% certainty, proven 100 different ways, is that the above quoted statement is complete and utter nonsense. A team with (say) a shortstop hitting .280 in the 8 slot, but with few BB and no power, is throwing runs out the window.
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.280 is too strong for that statement. I’d say .250-.260 or so.
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We’ve chosen 16 and have nine on the ballot. I’m curious who other people have on their lists after these 25. I have Zeid, Shreve, Walter, Musser, Nick Hernandez, and Schwimer (yes, that would make 31). I could be talked into Stutes. I’m sure others have Overbeck, Collier, Rupp, Eldemire, other OFs picked in early rounds, etc. How are we going to fit all these guys? Perhaps a Top 40? (kidding, kidding).
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@Boston phantom.
C Hernandez, H Garcia, L Castro, K Dugan, M Alvarez, Pettibone, Shreve, M Franco, Hyatt, Schwimer, Naylor, Zeid, Galvis, Rizzotti.
HM: K Walter, M Nunez and Pointer.
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MWGrad, your point makes no sense. your 3-yr old son doesn’t have more potential than Rizzotti/Collier, he’s just younger.
As for the risk/reward point, who’s the idiot who would theoretically pay $400,000 ($10×40,000 tickets) to guarantee winning $40,000? Besides, we aren’t talking about the choice between winning no money or $40,000.
The Phillies just signed Cliff Lee for $20+M per season for the next 5. What would be better for the team financially, have 1 of Cosart, May, Colvin, Ramirez, Aumout, Pettibone, Rodriguez, etc. become a viable replacement for Lee or having Rizzotti become a viable replacement for Ross Gload? Which is the more valuable prospect?
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Josh Zeid should be added next… J DeF lite.
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“.280 is too strong for that statement. I’d say .250-.260 or so.”
Okay, to begin with it IS a somewhat artificial combination of stats (my bad). A player who doesn’t walk & has no power is not likely to maintain a .280 BA, unless he is very fast, which Galvis isn’t.
Now, that said, IF Galvis could somehow manage to hit .280, with few walks and no power – kind of a Juan Pierre 2008 year (a down year for him) without SB … and is a plus defender at SS … that’s a regular on a non-contender. That’s … a better fielding, but less power, Yuniesky Betancourt.
And that’s Galvis’ upside IMO. A good defending/less power Yuniesky Betancourt . No thanks.
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I went with Pettibone again. Why do people think Rizz has a chance to make the Phillies this year? There is absolutely zero chance of that happening. They won’t carry someone who can only pinch hit (and he’s never even been a PH before). He can’t play in the field and they’re in the NL. If he hits a ton, he could get called up for the interleague games at the AL park but that’s it. Btw, regarding Hernandez, his former and future manager Truby says that Cesar was the best fielding 2B in the league last year. He’s definitely a player although he has zero power. However, Garcia is one notch higher to me because of his great season, after a very good season, and being several levels higher. Its a shame that neither has the arm for SS.
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@BostonPhan: My other five with my personal rankings in parenthesis are Scott Mathieson (16), Colby Shreve (25), Miguel Nunez (26), Joshua Zeid (29) and Cameron Rupp (30). Mathieson I feel shouldn’t drop off the list because of 12 batters faced in the majors, and he’s still under the innings threshold. Miguel Nunez I had low 40s last year on projection alone. Not great results but he got some innings under his belt, and I feel he’s a good sleeper candidate for this year.
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This is a deep crop this year. Normally I stop caring by number 18 cause it’s all slop…
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LarryM, I definitely agree with your point. Yuniesky Betancourt is 5 tool bad. He can’t hit for average, little power, no discipline, the defense gurus think he’s sliding backwards and the intangibles? They’re bad.
As for Galvis. Maicer Izturis as a 20 year old in High A hit 240/300/320. He put it together and became a useful utility player for the Angels. If Galvis could hit 275/340/390 or so with his defense, that’s a useful player. Galvis is young and while his raw stat lines remain poor, that he maintains them while advancing means he is improving.
Galvis right now looks awful. But he’s extremely young for AA and I can’t rule out him putting it all together at some point. With his defense he has to at least rank in the top 30.
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Of course my 3yr old has more potential.
He has less developed Talent.
We have an idea of how good those players could be.
My son could possibly be much greater than their potential which is more clearly defined. It’s just the odds of him becoming that good are quite miniscule.
The whole point is that some people are focused on talent in the very low levels who have done little yet, simply because there is a chance that in the next few years their skills could blossum past those of older players whose growth as a player is closer to being complete.
Some Value an AA or AAA player who may be an adequate player over a NYP player who may never even maky AA or AAA but also may go further. Others value potenial.
And the answer to the “Lottery” Exmaple would be “Any American” who has ever bought a State Lottery Ticket or played Roulette or any other game of chance which mathematically has a negative return when extrapolated out.
The whole point is that at some point lower max potential if worth more due to higher certainty than higher max potential with reduced certainty.
Some posters grasp that concept but differ on the variables of Max Potential and Probability. Others seem to focus on max potential reward regardless of chance of return.
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Harold Garcia is a virtual lock to taste the bigs, and given his contact skills, speed and defensive versatility, a good bet to spend more than a few years actually contributing, if not starting. The other players offer lots of different skill sets, but one thing they have in common is the great likelihood none of them will ever get more than a cup of coffee and most will likely fizzle at or before AA.
Should have been garcia 3 spots ago.
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I don’t see Garcia as a lock. I’ve seen a ton of even good AAA second basemen fizzle out like Danny Richar and Josh Barfield (coming soon to YOUR Lehigh Valley Ironpigs)!
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Alan, agreed on all points. I was responding to someone who thinks Galvis can develop into a replacement for Rollins. Stranger things have happened, but I’d put the chances of Galvis being good enough to be a regular on a contender at under 3%.
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“the great likelihood none of them will ever get more than a cup of coffee and most will likely fizzle at or before AA.”
On the one hand, some posters could use a dose of this kind of realism. OTOH, I think you go too far. I think it is much more likely than not that at least one, and probably more than one, of the people left on the list will have some major league role.
I think you are too high on Garcia, though I like him, but even if he does have a slightly greater chance of a major league role than (say) Hernandez, his chance of stardom is nil, and his chance of being a regular quite slim. Hernandez might flame out … but he could also develop into a star.
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I’m pretty sure most posters here grasp the concept of risk/reward which is why no one’s making the argument that Anthony Hewitt should be ranked higher than Matt Rizzotti.
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I agree Rizzotti won’t be on the Phillies this year unless they’re are multiple injuries, he’s an AL player. But based on performance, I’ll vote for him now because I think he will be a decent player in the majors, and may be a nice trade chip.
Sure, I want the Phillies to have tons of high risk toolsy guys in the system, but as John Sickels says, history tells us most won’t ever see CBP or even AAA. So as we get to #15-30, I’ll vote guys based on performance OR tools/projection. I voted Jiwan James pretty high based on tools and projection. I just happen to think that Rizzotti may have a better career as a MLB player than some on the current list. I have high hopes for Pettibone, Hyatt, and Zeid. Think 2011 could put Hernandez in top 10, he’ll get my vote soon.
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Paralysis by Analysis:
Hyatt: A bit old; performance not so good in short stint at AA last season.
Rizzotti: Also a bit old, no real position, power comes and goes.
Pettibone: Too many walks, not enough strikeouts; lucky with BABIP.
Castro: Mediocre average, mediocre OBP, caught stealing too much
Alvarez: Decent season, old for league, little power
Hernandez: Good season little power, excellent OBP, not much data
Garcia: Not likely to be more than a utility player
Dugan: Need to see more; position questionable
Galvis: Great field, little hit
Am I allowed to vote for Scott Mathieson?
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If this is a deep crop, that’s really good because it seems that 2010 draft picks have not had time to settle down and make a name for themselves. I mean, Percival Garner, our second round pick, only had 2 starts ( with an E.R.A. of 18.00, cut him, right?). Eldemire is another guy I have heard praised and he did not play. Cameron Rupp just got his feet wet in pro ball. Maybe next year some of the talent in the 2010 draft makes the list even more crowded.
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“Of course my 3yr old has more potential.”
Is your son Ken Griffey III or are you or anyone in your family a former professional ballplayer or world class athlete? If not, I seriously doubt that your son has more potential than Matt Rizzotti. 3Up has the analysis down perfectly. Your little guy, as cute as he must be, is just younger, but that doesn’t mean he has more potential than a capable AAA baseball player. Sure, there are some very few random young people out there in the world who have more potential than Matt Rizzotti, but they are, what one in 300,000? What makes you think your son is that person? Again, no offense to the little guy – I’m sure he’s swell.
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OTHER – MWGRAD’s 3 YR old.
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The guy’s basic argument was that his son was a total lottery ticket who has the 1:30000000 chance to be the next Barry Bonds, Roy Halladay, Ken Griffey Jr. or whatever so his son’s potential is sky high. His whole point was that it was extremely extremely unlikely; albeit possible.
He goes onto further extrapolate that he devalues these lottery tickets as prospects in favor of more sure things.
Whether you agree with his larger point or not, it’s really not hard to understand what he’s getting at, so can we please cease the posts about the genes of said 3 year old before they get out of hand?
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I dunno xfactor. My sources say the Pirates are taking him first in the draft.
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Did you just say you had your hand is a 3 year old’s genes?
How many minor leaguers are there? Maybe 6-7k at any given time, including indy leagues, dominican and venezuelan. So the lottery odds aren’t right, nor are the 3-year-old odds. There’s way more than 7 thousand 3 year-olds.
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Sounds like the autism PSA spot to me.
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@mike77, thanks, I’ll have to check myself on Maikel.
@Alan, thanks, I heart Nunez, he freaking owns the GCL Tigers. If only he could pitch every game against them. He and Manzanillo are my sleepers this year.
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Ha. I didn’t mean deep crop as a negative. I meant that we have a lot of truely valid choices and we haven’t even got to Musser, Pointer, Garner, Eldemire, Walter, etc…That’s good. Any of those guys could qualify as sleepers this year and just skyrocket.
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We are taking quite the ride down the tangent highway aren’t we?
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I voted for Cesar Hernandez, because Alan is championing him, and he usually seems like the voice of reason.
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Again picked Garcia who I hope can become a Placido Polanco type player in the future….however it appears he won’t go off the board for another couple of picks.
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Garcia and Hernandez are in a bad position in this exercise. They are splitting the vote amongst the group that value their similar skills. This will hurt Castro and Alvarez later.
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cesar hernandez…..again
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OTHER: Miguel Nunez
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I voted Hernandez, but I think it’s time that Zeid gets put on the list.
Other: Zeid.
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