2011 Reader Top 30, #16

2011 Reader Top 30

The runoff vote for #14 and 15 was as close as the actual vote, but at some point the madness must end, and so Aaron Altherr takes spot #14, and Phillippe Aumont takes spot #15. That means we move on to #16. Freddy Galvis got multiple mentions, so I’ll add him, and also Miguel Alvarez.

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP
6. Sebastian Valle, C
7. Vance Worley, RHP
8. Jesse Biddle, LHP
9. Tyson Gillies, OF
10. Justin De Fratus, RHP
11. Jiwan James, OF
12. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
13. Domingo Santana, OF
14. Aaron Altherr, OF
15. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
16.

77 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #16”

  1. I like Pettibone for #16. I have read other entries that say that good fielding has saved him, but the one game I saw him pitch, the outs were balls that were not well hit. Seein’s believin’. I like Pettibone for this spot.

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  2. Pettibone for #16 as well.
    His stats really took off after a slow start.
    His Ks increased at the end as well.

    I think he really started to settle in down there.

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  5. im going hyatt…he did everything asked of him…i think he beats out jc ramirez for the 5th rotation spot in 2013 after oswalt retires

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  6. Dartboard time! Seems like the Rizz has the best of it in the early going, perhaps due to his props yesterday in the Inky, but I voted for JC Ramirez. The dropoff after the last round, I have to say, is tremendous.

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  10. JC Ramirez young for Reading, but still had a decent K/9, pitching through injuries. Pitcher with biggest upside left, other than the draft picks.

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  11. Went with Cesar Hernandez again. The only other player I can see an argument for is J.C. Ramirez.

    I don’t like to say much about players not on the ballot, but its really time that Leandro Castro appeared.

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  12. We are at #16 and we have ten canidates. No Colby shreve? Are there really ten other choices that are better than him? Shreve may not make the top 30! I don’t get the galvis thing. Steve jeltz was a good fielding no hit short stop. Bocock is a good fielding no hit short stop. Just saying he is young as a reason doesn’t make sense. He has a track record already. IMO he is what he is.

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  13. Crap, I voted C. Hernandez, but had I saw how much support Rizzotti was getting I would have gone with J.C. Ramirez who I have right behind him.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m a Rizzotti supporter, I think he’ll be a decent to good major league pinch hitter, but with the lack of possition that’s all he’ll be. I think Ramirez is at least a #5 starter. It’s too far away to say about Hernandez, but he profiles as a lead-off hitting second baseman. He walks, has very good speed, and contact skills. It’s doubtful he’ll hit for power, but hey, everybody has a role, and his will be to set the table and play good defense. I like that upside even though he’s a long way away.

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  15. Pettibone. Stats looked good and better as the year progressed. JC Ramirez’ injury puts him down my list a bit. We’ll see how he progresses, but to me, until he can put up an ERA below 4 at any level, it’s hard to take him as a serious prospect for the bigs. I would hesitate to value him above Hyatt, or even relief guys like Mathieson and Schwimer. If he comes back from the injury and does real well in AA, then it’s a different story, but everything about his stat lines screams that he’s at best a AAAA type guy along the lines of Carpenter.

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  17. J.C. Ramirez again, and looking good so far from the numbers I see now, though Rizzotti is hot on the trail. Don’t make it a virtual tie between those 2 with another run-off . Maybe Ramirez can follow behind Aumont, since many connect the 2 in their mind for some reason.
    Miguel Alvarez and Leandro Castro very similar, has anyone seen them on the same team at the same time.

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  20. I went with Hyatt, but could probably have been convinced to vote for one of several other players, including Ramirez or Hernandez. It’s funny how these prospects sorted themselves out. This year, more than prior years, the prospects have divided themselves into clear tiers (even Sickels commented on this). After Altherr and Aumont, we are clearly now in the next tier of prospects.

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  21. Hyatt again. I really think in a year or two we’re going to be laughing at ourselves for ranking him so low.

    also I agree that it’s about time to get Overbeck on the ballot.

    OTHER: Cody Overbeck

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  22. Pettibone on this vote for me. Would love to see a little more velocity. But he had a nice season overshadowed by the big three younger pitchers at Lakewood. Next would be Garcia, JC Ramirez, and Cesar Hernandez.

    Next OTHER to add for me would be Zach Collier. He was rushed to Lakewood at age 18 and then got hurt. If healthy he will be back there this year at age 20 with plenty of time to resurrect his prospect status. He probably is in the 20-25 range for me (unless we find out he is still hurt).

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  23. I went with Pettibone again. I’ve read the comments against him but I also saw him pitch, later in the season, and he looked very good and he only got better as the seaosn went on. I think he has the chance to be a very good pitcher. However, there are still plenty of guys that are reasonable choices here. Garcia, Hernandez, Hyatt, Shreve, Castro, Galvis, Ramirez, Zeid, Dugan, Nick Hernandez, Rizz, Overbeck, Garner and Eldemire round out my 30 (with 10 more that I’m not sure shouldn’t be higher) but I can easily see how someone could rank them differently.

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  24. I’ve seen Overbeck in person, I don’t think he’s a good enough fielder to stick at third. Without defensive value, I don’t see him as a top 30 prospect.

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  25. And Rizzotti takes the lead!!! He’s just too close to MLB and a truely amazing year last year… pretty hard for me to knock him. I admit he is going to be limited by his defense and his power numbers will also be key to his development…. Here’s hoping for 25 HR’s and a .300 average next year in LHV!!!

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  26. Another close one – one vote away as I type this.

    The interesting thing is that a run off under the same rules as the last one will slot Rizz no lower than 17, whereas I suspect that if he is edged out for 16, and was tossed back into the pool with everyone else, he might slide down a few more spots. He has some hard core supporters but a lot of skeptics.

    I’m one of the skeptics, I guess, but higher on him than some people, so I’m fine with him ending up 16 or 17, though I voted for Hernandez.

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  27. I am having a hard time projecting Austin Hyatt as a MLB starter. I can’t think of any RH pitcher with average stuff, average control, and who’s best pitch is a Change up, that was a successful starter. That works for some LH pitchers, but I have never seen a RH pitcher like that.
    As a RH pitcher Hyatt needs a plus breaking ball or plus command to be considered a starting pitcher prospect, IMO. He doesn’t have either, that is why I don’t rate him high.

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  28. I’ve been voting Garcia the past few rounds, but I’m liking Hernandez too – definitely more than Rizzotti, who I am a fan of but don’t think he’s more than a fringe MLB player and ranks mid-20s for me.

    – Jeff

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  29. I think Ramirez is the best choice here, with Hernandez and Pettibone soon to follow. If we are going to add an OTHER I think Zeid is a much better choice than Overbeck, who had a couple hot months, then cooled down and doesn’t seem to have much defensive skill. When your ceiling is RH Greg Dobbs, that does not get me too excited.

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  31. Oh, one other thing – the recent Rizzotti article actually decreased my enthusiasm for him, in that it sounds like his defense is maybe even more of a problem than we thought. And no, he isn’t going to be on the major league roster, even if he kills the ball in Spring training: assuming the Phillies go north with 12 pitchers (they will, though I think this year there is actually a decent case for going with 11), there is simply no room for a bench player who can only play 1B.

    The best case scenario is hitting AAA pitching like he hit AA pitching last year, and becoming an attractive trade piece. And I hope that happens, and that he goes on to have a real major league career.

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  32. OTHER: Leandro Castro
    Agree with jonesman that Zeid is much more deserving of being selected than Overbeck. The Overbeck nominations are as ridiculous as the Derrick Mitchell nominations a couple rounds ago.

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  34. I went with Ramirez, but it is really difficult to choose among the quality group here. I like Galvis next because he has an MLB tool and he’s young in AA. Rizzotti appears to have an MLB tool, but it is not 100% the case and he’s a couple of years older. That said, I like Rizzotti more than most.

    I could be talked into Garcia (future utility player, like Freddy, but no SS value), Pettibone (unclear what could happen, most likely an MLB reliever), or Hernandez (very unclear what could happen but looks promising) here. I like those guys and Castro more than Hyatt.

    Other – Castro

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  35. I dont think the Overbeck nominations are ridiculous. He only led all our minors in total bases and even Reuben said he is one of the best fast ball hitters in the organization. What does Reuben say about Jiwan James?

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  36. ” Here’s hoping for 25 HR’s and a .300 average next year in LHV!!!”

    So lets say Rizzotti hits that mark, and keep in mind Lehigh Valley has a short porch in RF. Chris Carter in 2008 hit 300/356/515 in 2008 for Pawtucket as a 25 year old. He still hasn’t produced in the majors. Justin Ruggiano in 2007 hit 309/388/502 with with 20 home runs AND 26 steals. Still hasn’t stuck in the majors. The reality is that a 25 year old AAA slugger really rarely projects as much of anything.

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  37. OTHER – Castro

    Saw him in Lakewood a few times last year and thought he was solid in LF. I know his average was low, but 81 RBIs in 124 games would be a 106 in full mlb season.

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  39. Before Rizzotti can be considered a great prospect in this system, he either needs to figure out how to play a position or convince the National League to adopt the DH. At this point neither seems likely and he become a trade piece to some AL team down the road.

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  43. I would put shreve above galvis and jc ramirez.
    galvis after 1444 ab’s has a line of .233/.281/.294. I think he is what he is. he’s played for four years already, a top 20 prospect? i think the phils system is too deep to have a defensive only guy this high up.

    jc ramirez also has had a long minor league career. 5 years already. 4.30 era over that period. 1.33 whip and 3.4 bb/9. he has a 7.7 k/9 which isn’t great but not terrible. he had an injury last year so i wonder how he will bounce back. i think ramirez should be on the list but I think shreve could have more potential. 5 yrs is 5yrs. he has a track record.

    shreve was drafted twice once by the braves in 2007 in the 8th and in 2008 by the phillies in the 6th. shreves stock dropped because of his health risk. teams knew he was injured. he didn’t sign with the braves because of the $. phils took a chance on him as a high risk /reward guy. he’s played one year after surgery and rehab. 3.95 era and 1.14 whip his k rate per 9 wasnt good at 6.3/k but his bb rate was at 2.5/bb. bb/9 was better than ramirez. i think there’s a lot more room for improvement in shreve than galvis or jc and i believe he should be ranked higher than them. the system is deep and you can discuss all day who’s better than who. there’s other guys on the list that i could pick and fight over but galvis and ramirez stick out like sore thumbs.

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  44. Actually Rizzotti would have be improve a bit more to be Andy Tracy who could also play 3b and the OF.

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  45. Why isn’t Schwimer on this list, btw?

    Granted, his upside is not that high – but IMO that goes for most of the remaining people on this list – and Schwimer probably has a better chance of SOME major league role than most or even all of the remaining players.

    While I haven’t put together my own list, I am pretty sure that he would make my top 20. Heck, I might even vote for him after Hernandez gets picked (though I think I may need to wait a few rounds until that happens).

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  46. Jonesman, Rizzotti is a left-handed hitter. I voted for Garcia again. OBP around .350, some speed, a smidgin of power. I think this is a make or break season for Garcia, especially with Hernandez coming up behind him.

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  48. Schwimer fell outside my top 30, not an indictment of his skills as much as that he was crowded out by some other qualified players.

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  49. Henandez. Phillies put him on the 40 even thoug he is three years away. That would say they seem to like him a lot and who am I to argue?

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  50. JC Ramirez: High A, age 21, #11/11 g/st, ERA 4.06, WHIP 1.24, HR/9 0.3, bb/9 2.4, K/9 7.7
    Colb Shreve: Low A, age 22, 23/18 g/st, ERA 3.95, WHIP 1.14, HR/9 0.9, bb/9 2.5, k/9 6.3

    IMHO, Ramirez’s line is better. He was age appropriate for High A, Shreve was old for low A, yet they had virtually the same numbers, with Ramirez having the higher k/9.

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  51. Mike77. Ramirez has four more years of expirence. Shreve had to get his feet wet somewhere right? Coming off an injury his season was pretty good and btw his first in pro ball. A guy who has a 4 era in AA after his fifth season in pro ball doesn’t mean much to me. Kyle Kendrick I believe had an era around 3.55 in reading. He is a marginal 5 th starter in MLB. We will just disagree I just can’t get excited over the guy. I think people over rate him cause of the you know who trade.

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  53. Not sure why it matters how many years Ramirez has played professionally since he is still younger. The exact opposite argument was used in support of Santana where the fact that he’s already played a couple of professional seasons before turning 18 was a selling point. Galvis supports use the fact that he’s 21 in AA-ball as a reason why he should be ranked higher.

    Well, Ramirez is also 21 and pitching at AA-ball and had significantly more success than Galvis did.

    But I do agree that the ‘you know who’ trade is an influencing factor for some.

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  54. For the Alvarez question, I did get him confused with Franco (GCL 3B), maybe because of the first names, Miguel and Maikel?

    Voted Rizzotti because he is close to majors, was a college guy so his clock started late, had some projection last year (SONAR), and really had just amazing numbers last year. It would not suprise me if he flops this season. In fact, I would think his chances of .300 25HR would be 20%. However, if his Reading power rings true and he retains his walk rate how much worse would he be than Adam Dunn?

    Hernandez is so many seasons away, already is eating a roster spot and shows no power. I have no idea if he is a good fielder but if he was really good he would be playing SS in the minors, not 2B.

    Pettibone and Hyatt I like soon. I agree with another poster who stated that when Ramirez has an ERA under 4 then he can be a top prospect. What I do really like about Ramirez is that he has pitched a lot of innings so he could move into a major leaguer starter role. If his injury held him back and his stuff is better than the stats, then I will have under-ranked him this season. I just do not see much to place him ahead of some others.

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  55. Rizz is like Mike Vick. Seems like people forgot what he did for most of the year. Rizz is top ten but somehow ignored. Anyway, I still like the fact that theres players worse following as we rate deep into the teens.

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  56. ” However, if his Reading power rings true and he retains his walk rate how much worse would he be than Adam Dunn?”

    A lot worse. When Dunn was 25 he had 118 career home runs in the bag. That’s a ridiculous comparison.

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  57. “Not sure why it matters how many years the Ramirez has played professionally, when he is still younger”.

    It matters when there is no logical argument to support their position …. or, to quote Larry M, “an unsophisticated interpretation of statistics”.

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  58. Re: Rizz, the reality is that there have been many guys with minor league years like Rizz had who have limted physical abilities and who never make the majors for more than a cup of coffee. We all hope he’s different but looking at the odds, he doesn’t have a great chance of becoming a major league starter. Btw, Dunn was a beast in the minors. Regarding Shreve, I think many of us believe that he will do much better in year 2 after his surgery. Simply grading him on his results of last year wouldn’t put him in our top 30. Regarding JC: he had post season hip surgery if I’m not mistaken. The unknown is how much did it effect him last year and will haveing it repaired allow him to throw better this coming year. Having offseason corrective surgery sure helped Overbeck get off to a fast start last year.

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  60. wow, we got an Adam Dunn comparison for the Rizz!!.

    Note that at the age of 21, Adam Dunn hit .329 with 20 HRs at AAA in just 210 at-bats before moving to the Majors and hitting another 19 in 244 at-bats there.

    Tempted to change my vote for Rizzotti simple to end the madness.

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  61. Your right, the Rizz is like Vick.

    Both has statistical seasons that went beyond their true abilities and like Vick, the Rizz is bound to return to normal as well..

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  62. Dunn did have some interesting minor league years and was much younger when there but his first three years while satisfactory as a hitter were not worthy of a beast reference as he was already a complete butcher in the field.
    He may well be the worst fielding first baseman I have ever seen and that includes Dick Stuart.
    Surprisingly Dunn was a highly recruited high school quarterback. Hard to picture him eluding a rush.
    Matt seems like a nice kid and I hope he beats the very long odds against him.

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  63. Well if it takes ramirez five years to get to AA, how long before he gets to MLB? 8 or 9 years? You see a lot of guys who are real prospects blow through the minors to mlb. heyward, n. feliz a great young players but you can look at worley who has blown by ramirez, even kk took five years to go through the system. when kk puts up almost a run lower era in the same league i just don’t have much faith in him. Something tells me it won’t take shreve 4 more years to get to double AA.

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  64. Unless anyone believes Rizz is a perennial 35-40 HR guy like Dunn, the direct comparisons of the two are a little absurd. How many guys in MLB do you expect to hit that many HR every year? 7 or 8, maybe? And Dunn is basically one of them every year. That’s a truly high bar.

    I used the phrase “poor man’s Adam Dunn” a few days ago to describe Rizz. The fielding issues and body type are similar; defensively, Dunn is quite terrible. That said, I never thought Howard could improve his defense, and clearly he has to some extent, (I’d say he’s 30% better than he was just 2 years ago, I’m sure there’s a stat to try to quantify that, I just don’t know it). Why Dunn never improved, we may never know. Maybe he couldn’t or didn’t want to or wasn’t pushed to.

    If Rizz can manage to get a good bit above “Dunn” level defense, he might get some leeway for a lower level of HR production and be attractive in a trade.

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  65. Slabs, no offense but that all strikes me as fairly stupid. How long did it take Ramirez to reach AA? About 22 years, less than most other players. Shreve is OLDER than Ramirez. If you’re only looking at minor league seasons, you’re giving Shreve credit essentially for being too injury prone to make it onto a big league diamond. Apples and oranges. Shreve went to high school in the U.S. and played ball there. He played some college ball but suffered frequent injuries. But he’s been pitching every bit as long as Ramirez has. Just because Shreve pitched amateur ball when he was 18-20 doesn’t make him a better prospect.

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  66. As a 21 year old rookie, Adam Dunn posted a .948 OPS in the Majors.

    As a 24 year old, Matthew Rizzotti posted a .985 OPS across three levels (A+, AA, AAA)

    By the end of his Age 24 season, Dunn had 118 HRs and a .893 OPS in 2,112 MLB PAs.

    They are not the same or even close. There is a HUGE gap between Dunn and Rizzotti.

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  67. Shreve lost two years to injury tj surgery. That surgery could happen to any player pitcher or fielder. If he didn’t lose those two years he would be in AA. People act like he’s old for the Sally do to merit not circumstance.

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  70. NEPP – I agree that they’re not the same kind of prospect. They could be close to the same kind of player in the field, so the comparison is helpful to determine ho much value to place on a guy like Rizz who doesn’t project to hit for as much power: what does Rizz need to do to make up for his lousy defense? Dunn is considered a very good player due to his huge power, and his defense was widely allowed to pass for most of his career. Rizz might be a viable everyday player if he can hit for a decent amount of power and be just as good as Dunn in the field. His age is certainly a drawback as a prospect, and so he’d be valued considerably less. That’s a good comparison tool, no?

    For those who think Rizz is going to be like Dunn, or would like to value Rizz now like he could be as valuable as Dunn, I agree with you that it’s no comparison.

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  71. It’s funny to see the same guy who derided Jiwan James for 3 straight threads, use Colby’s injury to justify his old age in Low A. Jiwan James lost 1 1/2 years to injury and is still age appropriate, but his average numbers aren’t good enough for you, while Colby Shreve’s average numbers are somehow good enough.
    If you’re not going to make any sense, at least be consistent.

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  72. B in DC,

    Well if that’s your argument, then you almost have to conclude Rizz won’t make it – because he doesn’t have nearly Dunn level power and never will.

    But really your premise is just wrong – they aren’t remotely similar players, even setting aside the fact that Dunn had been a major league regular for several years at Rizz’ age. Aside from the power difference, Rizz, while having decent BB skills, isn’t as good as Dunn in that regard. OTOH (and this is the reason Rizz does have a shot at a real major league career). Rizz has better contact skills, even if not at the level suggested by his AA BA last year.

    The only things they have in common is that they are big, defensively challeneged first basemen.

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  73. @ alan a hip injury in which ramirez played through is the same as tommy john surgery?

    @ mike77 Two years of mediocre stats from a low round pick who people want in the top ten in the phils prospect list is the same as wanting colby shreve on the ballot? James switched positions. James went from a pitcher to a hitter. I’m sorry I can’t see how these two totally different discussions or the example you put forth apply.

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  74. Please look at Pettibone’s stats. the only thing separating him from our number 4 Brody Colvin is strikeouts. Pettibone was quite a bit better than Colvin in WHIP.

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  75. I looked at Pettibone’s stats. He was 18th on the Blueclaws in HR/9, 12th in BB/9, dead last in K/9, and 16th in K/BB. The only thing sustaining his performance is a low BABIP.

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  76. Thanks for trying to refine my argument B in DC.
    I was trying to indicate that if a player can hit, he can play; even in the National League. But the hitting requirement is huge. As I mentioned I doubt Rizzotti will even get .300 25HR in AAA.
    Rizzotti is not the prospect that Dunn was. But power and walk rate can get him to the majors. His power at Reading was not as good as I thought, with only 1 HR every 20 PA’s.
    Anyway, agree that Dunn (who was worst defender I could think of in the NL) was a poor comparison.
    Since I think Rizzotti will get to the majors with the potential to be a fringe starter I am willing to rank him in the teens. This season should determine how much of a fluke last year was.

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  77. I’m with you PHX.

    larrym – sorry you don’t like my premise. I didn’t say they were similar players – just similar fielders. They both play the same 1 position, (though I think Dunn did spend some time in LF at some point), and they both are lousy at it. That’s the point of comparison. To me, it’s valid to see what kind of offense a team is willing to start at 1B every day with bad defense. Ultimately, the guys have to play the game at the highest level, and if Rizz winds up projecting to 10-12 HR per year, he’s going to have a hard time being a regular 1B wth defense as bad as Dunn, even if he does have a high average or BB%, or a low K%. His age, in this part of the evaluation, has absolutely nothing to do with anything. My argument is about whether he even has a shot at playing in MLB before considering all other factors. Beyond that, we can discuss his age and what value to assign him. I still haven’t voted for the guy, for the record, and I never intimated he’d be as good a player as Dunn.

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