2011 Reader Top 30, #14

2011 Reader Top 30

Domingo Santana dominated the competition (like he’ll hopefully dominate Lakewood in 2011) and took home the 13th spot. That means we move on to #14, which should be fairly wide open. JC Ramirez received the most write-in support, so he replaces Santana in the polling. Onward

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP
6. Sebastian Valle, C
7. Vance Worley, RHP
8. Jesse Biddle, LHP
9. Tyson Gillies, OF
10. Justin De Fratus, RHP
11. Jiwan James, OF
12. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
13. Domingo Santana, OF
14.

59 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #14”

  1. Altherr again for his ability, his projectability, his high ceiling, and his production. He belongs in the top 15.
    Other: Shreve. I am betting that his second year back will produce even better results.

    Like

  2. I also chose Altherr. I’ve been hearing good things about him. Lakewood should have some good young outfielders with him in left and Santana in right.

    Like

  3. Aumont … year two is when he will find his groove. He was a huge prospect when the Phils traded for him. Then they flipped his world over. 21 yr old went from west coast to east, from pen to rotation, mechanics switched and put in Reading to prove that the Lee deal was the right move. His bad year plus the fact that Lee is back have lowered the pressure and expectations. Altherr next!

    Like

  4. Went with Altherr. He has a good contact rate and scouts love him. I’m a bit concerned about the walk rate and the small sample size is basis for some skepticism, but his ceiling is as high as anyone else’s at this point. My next three are Aumont, Hernandez, and Ramirez in some order.

    Like

  5. Cesar Hernandez 2B

    Best Infield Prospect that we have.

    I am really happy we have this Embarrassment of Riches.

    Think back the year Pat Gillick arrived. 1-5 Prospects. Nothing like this.
    They will not all pan out. But I think there are 40 Prospects this year.
    Compared to 5, 5 years ago.

    Like

  7. Was not Ed’s Fault. Pat Gillick was able to change the Franchise’s Standard Operating Procedures with the Owners.

    Like

  8. Altherr. Aumont has to show me something before I put him back in the top prospects category. He’s got tools but I think he’ll end up in the bullpen. He should be hearing footsteps with Cosart, Colvin, May, Rodriguez, Shreve, Pettibone and Zeid. Biddle, Garner, and a couple of other guys from Williamsport won’t be letting up at all. Watch out…. there might not even be room in the bullpen.

    I have Shreve rated higher than Aumont and Pettibone. I have Harold Garcia rated higher than Cesar Hernandez. In fact Harold, will follow Altherr for my next choice.

    Like

  9. Went aumont here cause he wasn’t the Mariners top prospect for no reason, and this year will be a big year out of the pen. Does anyone else think he is a future closer?

    Like

  11. I know many would be disappointed if it worked out this way, but I have a feeling that Cosart may be the Phillies’ closer. The description of his pitches and demeanor lead me in that direction. Aumont has the pitches to close, but I’m not sure he will get there. Nothing about DeFratus says MLB closer to me, but maybe I am underestimating his(out pitch) stuff.

    Like

  12. Other: Miguel Alvarez.
    Not sure why Alvarez is not thought of as highly as Cesar Hernandez, but if a 20 year old college draft pick, put up the same numbers in Williamsport, he would no doubt be considered a top 10.

    Like

  13. Mike77, probably because Hernandez made the NY-Penn Top 20, and he was on the radar before last season. In the NY-Penn and below, I can’t highly tout a prospect unless I see good scouting information to back it up. Alvarez is about #25-26 for me, not quite in the discussion yet.

    If we are looking at statistics though, Alvarez struck out four times as many times as he walked. Hernandez had an almost 1:1 K/BB ratio, extremely good. K/BB ratio is crucial to me as I think it weeds out the truly effective hitters from the flukish ones. Darby Myers’ 2006 line stands out as a hitter who had a hot start but was later exposed. Santana in 2009 as well had a poor ratio, but I think he’ll improve.

    One additional note in favor of Cesar Hernandez. He led the Crosscutters in plate appearances this year. In spite of that, he did not ground into a single double play all season!

    Like

  14. Alan, good reasoning. I have issues with Alvarez’s Bb% also, but not as much with his K/BB. Alvarez has shown some power, whereas Hernandez has shown none. I would expect some K’s, with the higher slugging.
    Not to be argumentative, but if you feel that strongly that K/bb ratio is the difference between these two prospects, why didn’t you consider that when choosing between Santana and Altherr? Similar situation, IMO. Also, if I am correct, you rate Hernandez higher than Altherr, even though Altherr has a good K/bb, more power, and younger. Seems you would have rated Altherr higher than Hernandez.

    Like

  15. Rizzotti here, guy hit 360 last year and had double digit HR’s…I’m betting he repeats, hence my 14th ranking.

    Like

  18. Went with Altherr here. He had a nice season in NYP and projects well. Probably Pettibone is next for me. I think he’s going to be the hardest to justify, looking at his stat lines, (WHIP is good, not dominant, did give up a decent amount of HR). For a young guy coming off a short season in NYP where he was not awesome, coming into the SAL league against much better competition, and bring his ERA down 2 pts, his WHIP down by around .33, and he’s only 19/20…to me that makes a big statement about where he’s going. His K rate and groundball rate went down, which isn’t necessarily encouraging, but at 6-5, you have to think there’s room to bring up his velocity a bit, and he’s young enough to still improve on his other pitches. Hopefully he doesn’t get lost in the mix with the other top guys in A+.

    Like

  19. Mike77, no problem, that’s what good discussion is about. Altherr’s ratio was fair in Williamsport but it was a smaller sample and his plate discipline was actually poor in the Gulf Coast League (3 walks in 121 plate appearances there). I don’t think Altherr produced enough to rank them either way. I did see Altherr in person though and I did like what I saw.

    As for Altherr vs. Santana, if you look at K/BB ratio in total Santana’s is actually a slight better. I think Santana’s age, upside and plate discipline/power he’s already shown makes him a higher ranked prospect.

    Like

  20. OTHER: Cody Overbeck

    It’s late enough in the rankings where his name should at least be on the ballot.

    Like

  23. I went with Aumont. Lots of upside. He has shown flashes, though I realize in total he was not good in 2010. If he can figure out how to control his stuff, then he will be awesome. I’m pretty sure the Phils have already said he will start the year in the bullpen, which detracts from his value somewhat. Please let me know if I’m wrong.

    Despite voting for Aumont, I would not be disappointed with Altherr here.

    Sir Alden, it is Ed Wade’s fault that he could not (or did not want to) convince ownership that investing more in amateur talent was a no-brainer. The Phils have had a pretty solid process for identifying talent for a long time and it has been wasted to some extent.

    Like

  24. Other – Galvis. I will be voting for him very soon, so I’d like to see his name on the ballot.

    Like

  25. Went with Aumont. He still has good upside as a reliever and I think he’s poised for a bounce back season as a reliever.

    Like

  26. The Phillies have alrady said that Aumont will pitch in relief this season. I’m guessing he’ll start at Reading and possibly close. To me, that lowers his prospect status. I like Altherr but I have still have Pettibone ahead of these guys on my list so I went with him here, again.

    Like

  27. keep on with J.C. Ramirez.
    As to Altherr, looks good, at least he will place behind Santana which I think is right, they look similar, same listed height and weight, but think Santana has maybe 10 or extra #’s of muscle and looks to me like more spring and life through physique. It will be seen how they do, not alot of track record, especially for Altherr.
    Overbeck- looks to be, even from the fielding stats on Baseball Reference like a concensus bad fielder, sort of like Matt Gamel as a 3B type of season featuring a below average fielding percentage even.
    Like somebody said yesterday, Galvis is not significantly older than Cesar Hernandez and further up the food chain. One might think a well regarded fielder, which requires above average reflexes, might be able to plink in enough base hits to get up in the .280 range and achieve regularhood at some point. The coaxing a walk , and the hitting hard enough hits to relatively vacant areas to accumulate extra base hits through superior speed (which) also gives the stealing of bases can be worked on at a later date or attempted to be compensated for by the rest of the lineup somewhere. There is a value.

    Like

  28. Colby shreve is a guy I expect to really have a good year. I think he should be put on the list. I think he’s a better prospect than some who are on there now.

    Like

  29. Went Altherr here. Gave slight edge to Santana because of his age. You can call these two 13 and 13A. Aumont’s arm is definitely a tool but have him ranked lower than Ramirez at this time. He has a lot to prove this season.

    I like the RIZZ but you have to tell me what position is he going to play at the next level? Even if he does project to have the power tool he is to far away defensively.

    Like

  30. In all honesty both of our middle infielder prospects just flat out suck. Glavis and Hernandez aren’t worth a lick of salt. IMO, they don’t belong in the top 20, let alone top 15.

    3up3kkk – I’ll put a friendly bet on the following if you’re willing to take: Rizzotti Hits >15 Hr’s and hits over .300 in AAA this year (Minimum 400 PA)? Winner gets a pair of phillies tickets?

    Like

  31. Actually scratch the bet, don’t want to get PP in trouble. (Why gambling is still illegal i’ll never know…)

    Like

  33. I seldom agree with Alden, but do in this case. Sickels has Cesar at 11; but he keeps getting pushed down our list. That should be telling us all something.

    Like

  34. Went with Pettibone here. I had his as my #12 last year on the list and have him as my #12 again this year. He’s a big kid that doesn’t walk a lot of guys (at least not in the 2nd half of last year) and has decent strikeout numbers. Maybe something clicked in the 2nd half of last season, not sure. But whatever the case may be, his high ground ball ratio coupled with ability to limit walks makes him my next choice.

    Like

  35. I can’t say that I would want to place a bet that would put me in a position to root against any prospect. I do really hope that Rizzotti repeats his success from 2010 in 2011.

    That being said, it is highly unlikely that he comes close to matching the .360 average he posted at AA. Even hitting .300 at Lehigh Valley would put him closer to .260 than .360. Every year there is some marginal skilled guy who explodes with an outlier season that gets everyone excited and every following year, that guy’s numbers return to their previous norms.

    Rizzotti hitting .300 with 15-20 hrs. in AAA in 2011 would be a good season but no where close to enough to overcome all of his other shortcomings.

    Like

  36. went with aumont. saw him in spring training last year pitch three totally dominating innings at the aa level. if he can only harness his talent, he is one of the best pitching prospects in the system. a big if, i know, but the stuff is there. hoping 2011 is when he breaks through.

    Like

  37. Even assuming that Galvis can hit as well as Hernandez, he is still behind him offensively. Galvis doesn’t have speed. For a singles hitter to be a major league regular, he has to either take a ton of walks or steal bases. Galvis does neither. Galvis, even with a higher average, is nothing more than a utility player. Cesar Hernandez has not been determined.

    Like

  38. Hyatt. FSL Picher of the Year. Phillies minor league pitcher of the year. It’s the opposite problem I have ranking Galvis. Galvis was too bad (as a hitter) for the EL and too young, so it is hard to extrapolate how he would have done in A ball. Hyatt was too good for the FSL and he was too old, so it is hard to extrapolate how would he have done in AAA.

    For the second season in a row Hyatt was old for his level but put up great peripherals. First I downgraded him because he didn’t really dominate based on ERA, but then I realized that his FIP is a run lower. That reflects his high strike out, low walk and low home run rates. At 24 I do not think he is a “finished product” because he has only been a pro for 1.5 seasons and the Phillies can teach him things he did not learn in college ball. I’ve read that since college he has already improved or is working to improve all three of his pitches, adding a couple MPH to his fastball, and improving his control on his slider and change up. So like all the other names on the ballot, I say he has projectability, which I believe is the big issue and the reason people are not voting for him yet, despite his accomplishments that I led off with. Where he differs from the others is he that with him it is not just about projections. He has already starred and has had 1.5 excellent seasons and 0 bad ones in professional baseball.

    Like

  39. Voted Garcia as he has put up a couple of solid years and looks to be a steady performer. Potential is important, put there has to be some achievement to back it up.

    Like

  40. Sir Alden —
    I really don’t believe it is true that we have gone from only 5 prospects five years ago to many today. Just looking at guys who have made it to the majors, from five years ago, we have Hamels, Happ, Kendrick, Outman, Victorino, Ruiz, Bourn, Carrasco, Mathieson, Maloney, Marson, Jaramillo, and Gio Gonzales. That’s a lot more than just 5 prospects. Other prospects were rated higher than a lot of these guys, but fell by the wayside, just as many of the guys that we rate highly today will not reach the majors.

    Like

  41. Regarding Rizz: my guess is that he focuses on generating more power but his avg drops as a result. I expect 15 – 20 homers with a 260 avg.
    I’m hoping that some of the guys from last years draft (besides Biddle) are top 15 guys but we just don’t know it yet. Out of Garner, Eldemire, Musser, Walter and Pointer, I’m guessing we have some top talent. They’ll defintiely be guys to check our in ST. Anyone know when minor league ST starts?

    Like

  45. Zolecki: The Phillies have traded minor leaguer Sergio Escalona to the Houston Astros for second baseman Albert Cartwright.

    Any info on him?

    Like

  46. From CSN:

    Cartwright, 23, split the 2010 season between single-A Lancaster and double-A Corpus Christi. Selected in the 36th round of the 2007 draft by the Astros, Cartwright hit a combined .294 with 30 doubles, 14 triples and 10 home runs in 127 games last season. He has racked up 112 RBI and 71 stolen bases in 284 games.

    Interesting….

    Like

  47. OT- but not sure if you all saw this on JRod..

    he Phillies drafted Julio Rodriguez in the 8th round of the 2008 MLB amateur draft as a 17 year old, right handed pitcher out of Puerto Rico. Physically, he is tall (6’4’’) and very lean (around 200 pounds). With his frame, it is imperative for him to build muscle. I think the lack of strength affected his motion some. Now, I know it was late in the season; I just couldn’t ignore his lower half not consistently pushing off the rubber. It looked like below his waist took pitches off, which added unnecessary stress on his pitching arm. I think added leg strength would do wonders with correcting this flaw. I also think that the coaches may want to explore widening his stride a bit. This kid has long legs, a nice, high leg kick but a stride of a 6’ pitcher.
    Rodriguez featured a fastball that I clocked on the scoreboard between 90-93 MPH, sitting primarily at 91. He used his 4 seem fastball up in the zone, utilizing very good rising action. He was not afraid to challenge a weak hitting Delmarva lineup, constantly peppering his fastball for strikes. On more than one occasion, Rodriguez was able to use his fastball on the hands of right handed hitters, setting up his Curveball, diving out of the zone.
    In my brief game recap, I had commented that Rodriguez threw a slurvy curveball. I glanced at my scouting report on Shreve when I typed that recap. His 12 to 6 curveball is slow with sharp diving action out of the zone. The Stadium gun had him consistently throwing his curve between 75-77 Mph. He only threw it just over a half dozen times. When he did throw it, it usually resulted in a hitter flailing at the ball in the dirt. I did think he slowed down his motion a bit too much throwing the curve, which isn’t unusual for such a green pitcher. With that said, this is definitely an offering with promise. His third pitch, his changeup, was used on a couple of occasions. I recorded one reading of 83 MPH, noting good arm action. Not enough changeups were thrown for me to give an accurate scouting report.
    Julio Rodriguez was one of the two best pitchers I saw in the Sally this season. I wish I had seen him pitch more than 3 innings so I could compare him better to the other top pitching prospect I saw, Braves prospect Arodys Vizcaino. I am very surprised, even after his electric second half, an extremely positive write up by Kevin Goldstein, and a good winter ball start for Carolina in Puerto Rico, that Rodriguez isn’t viewed as a top prospect among Phillies fans. In most systems, this guy is a top 15 prospect, even cracking the top 10 in a few organizations. I don’t know the Phillies system like I know the Mets and Braves systems since I’m a Mets fan. Being transplanted in the south, I have the opportunity to catch several Braves minor league games every season on various levels.
    Why isn’t the Phillies bloggersphere isn’t jumping all over this kid yet? Rodriguez is young, projectable, and has a couple of pitches to work from already. In my mind, he’s top-15 in the Phillies system with definite room to grow.

    http://scoutingthesally.com/game-report-julio-rodriguez-p-philadelphia-phillies/

    Like

  48. I think we’ve established JROD right where he should be considering the round he came out of, his age, and what he has done so far. If he stays on this current path by this time next year he is most likely in the top 5.

    Not many pitchers step into a big league rotation before the age of 22.

    Like

  49. Randy —
    I just went back 5 years and looked at our top 30. You are certainly correct, however, that both Brown and Drabek were added during the last draft of Wade’s regime. It is not fair to count Monasterios, since Gillick obtained him as part of the Abreu deal.

    Like

  50. Dave – I posted a portion of that scouting report the other day in my arguement for voting him into our list… i think the only comment it generated was one by someone saying “it’s only one report, doesn’t tell you anything”… but no worries, ignore the detractors… slightly concerning on the injury risk but until it happens, i’m not worried about it. As for the rest of the report, sure sounds great doesn’t it! (by a mets fan no-less!!!)

    Like

  51. Aumont, Altherr, Hernandez, Shreve, Ramirez … but you could throw a blanket over these guys as far as I am concerned

    Like

  53. More and more difficulty for me to choose between Hyatt, Pettibone, Hernandez, Pettibone, and J C Ramirez all of whom seem close to one another in possibilities to be MLB players, and good ones.

    Each of them should draw praise for each’s accomplishments in the minors in ’10 despite some issues for each that needs adjustments on the way up.

    J C Ramirez is interesting beyond the fact that he resulted from the Lee trade, and managed to pitch through the season despite a significant hip problem. In ’11 we should be able to better evaluate him after this winter’s surgery to fix the hip. He also received praise from the FO for hanging in there w/o complaints and excuses which speaks more to his character than his numbers. From his prior evaluations and combined with better expectation in ’11, he just might leap several spots up to contend with those pitchers we’ve rated higher now. Another starting pitcher in the mix whose talents might be better realized in ’11.
    Hyatt is a college draftee whose pro career is only 1 1/2 yrs playing/pitching time. In that 1 1/2 yrs he has moved up to AA Reading after putting up unbelievable numbers in the High A Florida State lg. He was moved up to Reading late in the season which resulted in lesser numbers over a short time. As indicated above, his 3-4 pitches are being amended and strengthened so that each would have some more MPH and/or movement along with better strikes in the zone. That could/should result in another 2 mph on the fb and with improved break and command with his other 3 pitches, he COULD be the first starting pitcher prospect who’d be called up to the big club if help is needed; unlikely he’d be needed with Worley and KK ahead of him going for the 5th spot. The ’11 season could be his entre to candidacy for the pen in ’12 AND as a fill-in starter.
    Hernandez is a speedster who plays an excellent 2nd base and has a high oba with a bunch of successful stolen bases who the FO is very enthused about. His present lack of HR power would be offset by the 2bhs and 3bhs and steals which promise to set the table for following hitters’ rbis. A valuable tool at the top of the lineup and he should be ready in 3 yrs when Chase needs replacement. In those 3 years Hernandez could develop more power with weight training, but at such a position in the lineup, power would be an extra added attraction but not necessary for him. Gillies also has the top of the lineup as his likeliest lineup position; quite a pair to drive opposing pitcher nuts.
    Pettibone came on strong in the 2nd half of the season raising his profile as one to accompany the other mound guys in Lkwd. He mostly throws ground balls and increased his K-rate as the season progressed. We’ll see if that progress continues in ’11; if so, add another to the accumulating mound lights now making their way to the top.
    Altherr has been one of the few promising righty hitters in our system who hit well in ’10 and whose skills seem in the development stage, including his speed which seemed locked in 2nd/3rd gear but needs instruction in moving it to overdrive. The tools are there and with a twist here and tug there he could rise to the top 12 at ’11s end. A good start in pro ball; scouts love his projections. Power will come with that weight training and a couple years of maturity and pro experience.

    Still a tough choice.

    Altherr for his developing talents to fill a future need as a righty OFer since the main hitter prospects in the system seem to be many lefties.

    Like

  59. Voted Aumont due to his upside, even if it currently looks like he may never reach it. When we first got Aumont, I was a lot higher on him than many fans…and that potential is still there, and if he can ever even get CLOSE to reaching that ceiling, look out!

    He’s a risky prospect at this point to be sure, but he shows these flashes of brilliance that makes you hope he can put it all together.

    Considering how many people considered him to be a “junk” prospect before he even played a single game in the Phillies system, i’m sincerely hoping he’ll be able to silence some doubters this coming season.

    Like

Comments are closed.