2011 Reader Top 30, #13

2011 Reader Top 30

Julio Rodriguez eases ahead and takes the #12 spot, edging out Domingo Santana. Rizzotti got the most write-in support, so he’ll be added this time around.

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP
6. Sebastian Valle, C
7. Vance Worley, RHP
8. Jesse Biddle, LHP
9. Tyson Gillies, OF
10. Justin De Fratus, RHP
11. Jiwan James, OF
12. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
13.

128 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #13”

  1. I can’t complain about Rodriguez. The performance is there, the only possible concern is durability. But we’d have the same concern about Jarred Cosart.

    Ended up casting my vote for Santana, though I like Cesar Hernandez the most out of anyone in the group.

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  3. Going Santanna,
    He is 1.5yrs Younger than Altherr and playing at a higher level
    His numbers were not great last year, but he was playing against much much older competition.

    I suspect 2010 they both play at LWD and they can duke it out :>

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  4. Aumont.. still has a live arm.. as some pointed out during the season Aumont’s stats at Clearwater really were not that different than May’s.. granted Aumont is a year older and flopped at AA..
    Plus Aumont is still 21 for 18 minutes (birthday is 1/7 haha. happy bday phillippe

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  5. Funny that Rizz needs write in’s to get a mention when he’s on the 40 man roster. If he’s not a prospect… Gotta love that perpetual underdog Rizz!

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  7. Being on the 40-man doesn’t mean anything for prospect status. Drew Naylor, JC Ramirez and Freddy Galvis are on the 40-man and aren’t on the list either (and in Naylor’s case never will be.)

    Out of the 9 players on this poll I’d put Rizzoti somewhere in the 7-9 range with Dugan and Hyatt.

    I voted Santana here based purely on his power potential.

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  8. Alan, why did you vote for Santana when you like Hernandez better? It came down to the same 2 for me, and I went with Santana because I like home runs, and the name “Domingo”. I was leaning towards Cesar until some commented to me about his lack of power. I looked it up, just 21 extra base hits in 405 AB in two seasons in the USA, no homers, and just 3 triples. For somebody who is fast, 3 triples tells me really is just a singles hitter, so far. I also decided to go mainstream for my 4th pick (after Brown, Worley 6x and JRod 5x). Baseball America is has flip-flopped on those two also, picking Hernandez as the #9 prospect in the NYPL and Santana #12, but putting Santana #10 in the Phillies organization and leaving Hernandez out of the top 10. Could it be the winter league stats? Santana hasn’t played. Hernandez hasn’t played much, but has passed Harold Garcia in my eyes, playing about as well in the same league yet 3.5 years younger.
    http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=phi&y=2010

    Alan, I liked your comments on Pettibone and the Lakewood defense in the last few threads. I put Valle ahead of all of their starters, figuring he’s the most important defense player, and because as I already said, I like home runs. (I like walks too, so it wasn’t an easy choice.) Pettibone looks like he’ll fit in the bottom 5 of my top 30. I took Bastardo and Mathieson out of the competition because both have used up their Rookie of the Year eligibility.

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  9. I am shocked that it took Rizzotti this long to get on the ballot. I’ll make a not so bold prediction and say he takes #14. For a DH with little power, and no speed, he sure gets a lot of love here. Tried to find another MLB DH with those attributes and surprisingly couldn’t identify one. There are some 1B that fit that description, but they are all very good defenders.

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  10. Anonymous said, “(Santana) is 1.5 years younger than Altherr and playing at a higher level”.

    Altherr and Santana finished the season at the same level and Altherr was better across the board, while playing a premium defensive position.

    Altherr : NYPenn, CF, age 19, K% 12%, slash line 287/350/426, OPS 775
    Santana: NYPenn, RF, age 17, K% 36%, slash line 237/336/366, OPS 702

    Santana is younger, but Altherr is young for the level too, and his numbers are much better than Santana’s. I think his numbers (and position) make up for the age gap.

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  12. gone with Altherr. Santana is young, but its hard to vote for someone with those kind of numbers.

    I hope he shows some real improvement this year and is back in the top 10 next year

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  14. Santana and then Altherr.

    I like Cesar Hernandez but I have him at #16. Maybe that’s too high. Look at a comparison to Galvis. Freddy is only 6 months older. He’s been playing at a higher level forever. He has a monster tool (the glove). If he was playing at Cesar’s level, what would he be hitting? And don’t forget the glove.

    Cesar has played only as high as Williamsport. If he played at Reading or even Clearwater, what would his triple slash be? He has a ton of speed. I like that but Galvis and Hernandez are listed at the same size. Galvis has popped a HR or two even at a higher level. Hernandez is probably a legged out doubles man at best. Hernandez plays 2B. By the time he hits the big leagues, the Phils may need a 2B.

    Before you anoint Cesar the best middle infield prospect in the organization, look at the age/proximity/numbers. You might say that Galvis is fully formed and topped out. He will always have the great glove & arm but will never hit his weight (currently listed at 170). What’s Cesar’s upside? He’s the same size, 4 levels lower, nearly the same age, playing a lesser position and not known to have that glove tool.

    By the way, I have Galvis at #26. Either I’m valuing Cesar too highly or Galvis too lowly or maybe it’s somewhere in between. Comments welcome…

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  16. How does Rizzotti fly through A to AA to AAA in 1 season and not get any love!?! Granted he didn’t tear up the International League nor the Fall League but he is just short of making a trip to Philly with a Howard DL appearance. What am I missing or not seeing with this situation?

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  17. At this point I start looking for guys with a superior tool(s) that, if tapped, would result in a potential star player. Of the guys left, that means either Santana or Aumont. I went with Aumont mostly because he’s a bit further advanced.

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  18. Santana again, Alterr next, then Aumont.

    That Rizzotti is polling higher than Aumont is … not surprising, but a little disappointing.

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  19. At one time Aumont was a top 50 prospect in all of baseball. I know we all hate the Cliff Lee trade, but come on people, if he was a home grown prospect he’d be top 10 based on previous hype/results. He was sent way in over his head this year by being assigned to AA at his age – while being converting to a starter no less.

    That he has had some recent success on the international stage should generate some excitement….?

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  21. “because he’s a bit further advanced.”

    How do you value complete and utter failure at a higher level? Aumont has to have the lowest vote/polls in blog history. Let him show SOMETHING this year then vote for him. BTW I hope he does but it may take a change in scenery

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  22. As much as I think Santana has a great ceiling and is still incredibly young, I gotta go with a guy that is giving results at a higher level, so Harold Garcia is where I’m voting.

    – Jeff

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  23. i went with all the santana high ceiling potential talk…even though i went with jrod based on performance…thats what happens when you vote on the way to work…leaning towards altherr then aumont…altherr based on real nice year last year andd aumont based on potential and the fact that he went through major changes last year ( organization/ geograhical / pen to rotation plus mechanics) oh yyeah and phils rushed him to aa to prove trading lee was a goo move…ooops!

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  24. I went with Phillipe Aumont. He has shown flashes – struck out big leaguers, 5 inning no-hitter, etc. Last year was an awful year for him, and hopefully he was able to re-set this offseason. He has work to do, but the flashes he has shown are what we are hoping for in some others. With tall, young pitchers from northern climates (e.g. not as much experience), this inconsistency isn’t unheard of.

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  25. Santana again.

    @Mike77 – Your inference that Rizzotti has little power is a bit surprising. 16 HR in what’s around 2/3 of a season at Reading, for a guy who’s still developing his swing and figuring out how to handle pitchers, (even in what’s been described as a hitter’s park at Reading – I never have seen the place). Seems like some decent potential to me – HR potential in the 20s and an average around .300 will make up for less than wonderful defense on a lot of teams in this league, and we only need one of them to agree with us to make him valuable in a trade. That said, he’s probably 16-18 on my list, and I have a feeling he may go 14 ahead of Altherr on this poll.

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  27. I’m getting confused and going back on myself. I voted for Aumont. He has big tools, just like Santana and Altherr, and as someone else said he’s had flashes against good competition. Plus he’s still young. I think I’m getting swayed too much by a crappy year. That said, I could easily be talked into a number of players here. I think it’s time for me to make my own list and try to stick to it. Too many guys are too close for me right here.

    mike77, I’m not sure why you’d say Rizzotti has little power. He had a 635 SLG in the Eastern League in 266 ABs. That would have led the league (by a tad over Bozied!) if he had enough ABs. He had a 477 SLG in the FSL in 109 ABs, which would have placed him second in that league. He has plenty of power.

    By the way, does anyone know who had the fifth highest SLG in the FSL this year among full-season qualifiers? Wait for it…Derrick Mitchell!!! He was also 8th in OPS. It all becomes clear…

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  29. By the way, finishing nth among full season qualifiers isn’t always impressive in the low minors. Anyone who excels in such a league gets promoted before they hit the threshhold.

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  33. OTHER: J. C. Ramirez

    Still has good stuff. Seattle organization has one of the best Latin American operations and BA had Ramirez as their top rated Latin American prospect going into last season. Did not pitch THAT badly in the past season , and it now can be known that he pitched entire season with torn hip labrum (or something like that).
    Originally had Aumont here in initial list but switched , think this is where the Seattle duo should fit. Hope not to have to vote for the same 2 for a month.

    Note: J. C. Romero officially signed which will soon result in a net loss of 1 to the 40 man roster. If the result is a straight removal of a minor leaguer, who can it be now?
    Don’t think it will be one already placed on this list or one of the highly touted, but who knows? Is there a poll on this somewhere?

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  34. Sorry NoWheels, I know you are the grand Poobah of the “Cliff Lee trade prospect haters club” but Aumont has had success at higher levels in both 2008 and 2009. Yes, most of last year was a disaster for him but I expect much of that was related to being the face of the Cliff Lee deal. Besides, as I stated previously, I’m looking for outstanding tools at this point, not spectacular performance.

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  36. Santana

    Though I agree with adding Ramirez at this point. I’ll start voting for Rizzotti in about 3 or 4 rounds. He seems like a nice guy and had a really good season, but the Offensive bar for 1B/DH is really, really high, and for a very bad defensive 1B it’s even higher. Unless he goes Barry Bonds on the IL next year, he could well end up a 4A/MLB bench guy. Combine that with the fact that several teams have extra 1B prospects they could trade who are similar to Rizz and I just don’t seem him as a top 15 prospect.

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  37. Santana. I’m going with Altherr after that and then I feel like there’s a big dropoff in my enthusiasm. Still, it’s worth keeping in mind that the list had Vance Worley ranked down around this area last year and this year he’s probably going to be competing for the fifth spot in the rotation, provided they trade Blanton.

    I wasn’t going to vote him under “other,” but I think that if we’re considering him eligible we should put Scott Mathieson on the ballot at this point. He’s an intriguing case and I’m interested to see how others would rank him.

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  39. I voted Matt Rizzotti here, although it’s still a big questionmark what his future in the Phillies organization will be, unless he can play LF on at least a Pat Burrell level, or if he’s okay with a bench role. Otherwise he could potentially be a starting 1st Baseman for some team like the Pirates,Royals, Nationals etc. if he’s traded. Anyway, at least he looks like a guy who is practically a lock to have some sort of Major League career, which is more than could be said for a lot of other prospects.

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  40. I have Mathieson #16 on my ballot. One spot above Phillippe Aumont, I think since I view Aumont as a bullpen arm I can’t reasonably rate him higher.

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  42. @Marfis – Delwyn Young’s camp invite means they can drop Brian Bocock from the 40 man roster without losing organizational depth in the middle infield. Maybe that’s the play.

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  43. I’m Going Santana here, but I can see sooo many other choices.
    Most Big Vote Getters here have major red flags here as well as skills that could lead to great success.

    Santana – Young, Great 2009, Regressed in 2010 but even if he repeats LWD he will still be one of the youngest there.

    Altherr – Decent numbers in 2010 despite being young for the league, which at 1.5yrs older than Santana shows how fast Santana was being pushed along.

    Aumont – Was Top 15-25 Prospect Prior to Last Years Disaster in the Minors.
    Pitched Terrible in the Minors but did great this off-season for Team Canada against Cuba and other very good Teams. Has the Stuff, but need to figure out what went wrong.

    JC Ramirez – Pretty Decent Stuff and with fairly good numbers while pitching thru an injury requiring surgery. Not #1 Stuff but he may become a solid ML pitcher. Still I can see how he starts being ranked in the 14-20 Range.

    Rizzotti – Can’t Field, but he can hit. Has a Great Eye and has kept his average up thru progressions. Showed very Good Power in AA this year until he hurt his wrist. Then had terrible numbers in AAA. Winterball had very good powers excluding power. Big Kid. Good Eye. Makes Contact. Has Shown he has very good power potential. If his power returns next year, somebody will find someplace to play him in the Bigs. Likely the AL not the Phils. Excluding Brown, he is by far the most ML ready hitter.

    Garcia/Hernandez at 2B are intriguing players with different pluses and could start winning the spot soon.

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  45. At this point Santana presents the most upside IMO. I like the fact that he is younger than Altherr. I’ll consider Altherr and Hernandez next and I agree Ramirez should be on the ballot at this point.

    I’m not penalizing Aumont for projecting as a bullpen arm. I have a problem with his command and inconsistent performance. He had a chance to seize the moment and show why we traded Cliff Lee for him and he didn’t do it. Understandable yes but it really hurt his stock as a prospect.

    No big deal right he just has to bounce back this season and he’ll be right there when we do our mid season grades.

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  47. Altherr is the guy I voted for. Santana is younger but has to hit. AA has shown more at this point and should be ranked higher IMO.

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  48. OTHER: JC Ramirez
    Better prospect than everybody on the current list except Altherr and Santana. I think he has a chance to be this years’ Vance Worley (a guy coming off a down statistical year at a high level and young age).
    Props to NEPP, who kept touting Worley last year, for the same reasons.

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  50. Drew Naylor would instantly get picked up. He doesn’t give up HRs and he isn’t wild. He is as under rated on this board as Austin Hyatt is over rated. Naylor would be some teams’ better version (K/9) of Herndon, if released.

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  52. If Drew Naylor or any other is removed from the 40 man roster, they would either be designated for assignment (which requires waivers) or simply released which would grant free agency. There would not be simply assigning to the minors after restricting a players movement by protecting them for a few years, as this is not fair to the player, and I seldom use the phrase unfair to the player. I think they could work their way down a ways from Naylor for somebody to release, though, and I will again stump for my favorite when release lists come up- — Drew Carpenter. I don’t think they remove a LHP at this point, and though I count 14 Middle Infield possibilities for MLB Spring Training, most are not Minor League assignment types and I like Bocock as the starter at SS for AAA, along with the other SS possibility for that on the roster Carlos Rivero.
    Delwyn Young- yeah haven’t seen him play SS, but he is not as bad at 2B or 3B as some say, so he could go to SS in a late game emergency situation till they could get a replacement after the game. Was Pirate regular at 2B till they converted Niel Walker, if they don’t may be still there, though I think they’d have found another as not that great as a regular. Good reserve.
    For Bench of 6 as it stands (think it will) I hope for Schneider C, Gload 1B-OF, Valdez SS-IF, Mike Martinez IF-OF, Delwyn Young IF-OF, Francisco OF (to back up Brown) . Lots of versatility and utility there.

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  54. “this poll is really a travesty-look up the definition of travesty”

    I did as you suggested and looked up travesty but saw nothing in the definition indicating that everyone disagreeing with the dwarf’s picks constitutes a travesty.

    Maybe it’s a travesty that whoever wrote the dictionary didn’t include that as an alternate definition?

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  56. Santana…AGAIN.

    He’ll be in his 3rd full pro season while most American prospects are still seniors in HS. His ceiling is astronomical.

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  57. ****Props to NEPP, who kept touting Worley last year, for the same reasons.****

    Thanks. I’ve been pushing Worley since we drafted him. He’s a solid pitcher. Not great but solid.

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  58. How much power Rizzotti might actually have in the majors is subject to legitmate dispute. The Phillies themselves openly question whether he will continue to hit for power in AAA or the majors – it’s their biggest question about him. Not a silly point, particuarly since that is one of the only reasons to keep him around as a player.

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  59. Aumont. I like someone with closer potential over a role player (Rizzotti/Garcia), a guy who has not played in full season yet (Santana/Altherr/Hernandez), or a possible #5/middle reliever (Pettibone).

    I like all those guys, but I think most posters here and other places have thrown him under the bus too soon. I am patient with these guys, especially a tall Canadians still learning to control his body and get innings under his belt. Young flamethrowers have growing pains. He pitched well in Clearwater and post-season. I am willing to bet on his arm and ceiling.

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  61. I’ll go with Austin Hyatt. His K/9 stands out over the past two seasons and he isn’t walking too many people or giving up too many HR while doing it. This suggests an ability to miss bats rather than being effectively wild. Any comments on Hyatt’s stuff and control from those who have seen him up close would be helpful….thanks.

    I almost voted for Kelly Dugan but I have to admit to a “Bad News Bears” bias: is there a better baseball name than Kelly Dugan? Sounds like a character from one of his dad’s movies…

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  62. i hope rizzotti does well but i dont think he is a lock to have a major league career as someone suggested…also when the phillies openly questioned his power…was that a lamar comment?

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  63. Top 2 crazy things i have ever read about Rizz

    1.”he looks like a guy who is practically a lock to have some sort of Major League career,”
    He does? because he had 1 good minor league year? and can someone define “some sort” because mayberry is more of a lock to have a major league career and he is not a good player.

    2. ” Winterball had very good powers excluding power.”
    Wow, ok well if these are your pro Rizz arguments then have at it. Rizz no higher than 20 or so in my opinion

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  64. Naylor throwing 87-89 (as I believe is the report on his velocity) isn’t the same as Herndon throwing 93-94 with sink. Naylor’s ceiling at this point is probably a 6th or 7th inning reliever and I don’t think he would be that big of a loss.

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  65. Aumont here based on upside and level. He has potentially dominant closer stuff and has demonstrated flashes of it against better competition than Santana or Altherr.

    If Bastardo & Mathieson were votable I would be putting them in this range as well.

    I like Rizzotti because hitting is the single skill that will get one promoted to the majors. He had a hitting year nearly equal to Dom Brown. Unfortunately I believe he will not be able to maintain a .350AVG with 25HR next season and his status will drop but since I do not know I cannot demote him too far.

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  66. Yes, I believe Lee is the SS that some of us had talked about trying to get from the Cubs. Pavano is supposed to sign soon so, with the Garza deal now done, Blanton will shortly become the #1 pitcher on the market which should allow for a deal soon. As for the roster, there’s no way both Martinez and Young make it. I think you’ve got Brown vs Mayberry for one spot and Young, Martinez, Quinlan, Barfield, or Orr for another spot. If they only keep 11 pitchers, the last spot could go to Brandon Moss, who would be a 2nd lefty pinch hitter. I have a hunch that Baez will pitch himself off the team and allow Matheson to take his spot.

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  67. I dunno I just can’t get behind Santana, he may have all the upside in the world but he hasn’t put it together above a brief gcl appearance.

    I’d have him #15 at highest personally.

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  68. murray i agree i think martinez battles d young and barfield for last spot..i dont know who hits l r or sw…i think mayberry is given every shot at 4th of spot with brown starting in minors…but if mayberry stinks maybe 2 of 3 make it…forgot about moss…i like that amaro atleast is giving lv something to watch…also does anyone know how old barfield is he had a real good rookie season at ss for padres before be traded

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  69. @Murray has a good point on Baez. If he’s down very badly in ST, they may release him right away, and there’s no reason to give him more than a few weeks on the big club unless he immediately turns it on in April. If he’s got good stuff and not getting hit around, (which would not be unusual for a reliever to “regain” that kind of form), then he’s worth keeping, and if he’s great, (suuuuuuuuuuuuuuure…), then he’ll actually be worth the money we pay him this season. Good chance for Mathieson, which means good chance for Schwimer or DeFratus to be an inkury fill-in later in the year, which would be great to see, (except that it means someone else is injured, which is admittedly a bummer).

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  70. Handzus, Naylor is throwing 89-90 as starter. Herndon is throwing 93-94 as a reliever. It is reasonable to believe Naylor will gain velocity when he is eventually turned into a reliever. Go check Herndon’s scouting report when he was a starter in the Angels org. Naylor is a comparable pitcher, and he had better peripherals than Herndon at the same age/level.

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  71. 3up Why would I hate Aumont? If you think he will rebound vote for him next year. As you said”Besides, as I stated previously, I’m looking for outstanding tools at this point, not spectacular performance.”
    and good thing too. spectacularly bad is all you got last year. And that is fact not hate. Gillies too is credited with a rebound year he hasn’t had year. Just stop bending the truth. BTW spring is coming and we will find out. Where are those reaken Robins.

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  72. Did baseball America do top 30 prospects or just the top 10? If they did the top 30 and someone subscribes to BA could they post the list?

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  73. Bellman, thanks for your comments. You sold me on Galvis! I will consider him strongly next. Either him or Hyatt, I think. I had him #12 last year, but unfairly demoted him in my mind because of another season without much offense. I’d say he is 3 levels, not 4, ahead of Hernandez (Lakewood, Clearwater, Reading), but Galvis in 2011 will still be young for AA. I had thought of what Galvis might have hit in Williamsport, and guestimated .050 points OPS per level, still leaving him behind Hernandez. Don’t ask me where .050 came from. I just made it up. Two things are clear to me: Galvis is a little bit older and a little bit slower than Hernandez, but the the age difference is just 6 months. In Galvis’ favor are his 5 HR last season and 10 in his career (vs 0 for Hernandez), his glove at SS, and the fact he made it to AA at 19. Tell me why you have him just 26?

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  74. Galvis is another name that may need to be added and may be in the lower side of 15-20.

    He could repeat AA in 2011 and 2012, and even 2013 and still be age appropriate.
    He has lots of time to develop at the place and his glove is ready.
    He will likely never be a great hitting SS, but I he has plenty of time to develop to adequate.

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  75. I feel guilty about it, but I voted for Rizz. Here’s my summary for the guys on the list:

    Aumont–should not be in the top 20–was throwing 84-86 tops at Reading–what’s that about? I didn’t see any articles later in the year saying he regained velocity. At this point he’s a suspect, not a prospect. Make or break year.

    Garcia–makes contact, is a good fielder, has speed. Doesn’t have power or patience, though.

    Hernandez–biggest pro is that the organization really likes him. Better patience than Garcia, but less power and 2 1/2 levels down. I’m curious to see what the Phils’ scouts are seeing–maybe he’s about to break out.

    Santana–nothing new…young, power, patience, but strikes out way too much.

    Pettibone–analysis of him on this site is spot on. A competitor, but doesn’t miss enough bats to be a top-20 prospect IMHO.

    Altherr–good eye, good contact. Wish he were just a bit faster, or that his defense was just a bit better in CF. This year should tell a lot more. Probably next in line for me.

    Hyatt–this guy gets no respect anywhere. Reportedly throws a FB that tops at 94 and the best change in the Phils’ organization. Strikes out so many guys that people think it’s some sort of fluke. Love him, right after Altherr.

    Dugan–had the most exciting two-week flash of any player in the Phils’ system this year. If he were a year younger, he’d be a top-5 guy, I think, but he needs to put a solid year together at Lakewood this season.

    Finally, Rizz. He has two tools that will play in the big leagues–contact and patience. Somebody will give him a shot somewhere. If he could field, he could be better than John Olerud or Mark Grace. If he could run, he’d be a pretty productive LF. I wouldn’t bet against him finding a way to play LF, or hit with enough power to stick as a 1B/DH. Start of this year will be crucial–I hope he’s working out. I know my vote has as much hope as projection in it, but it is what it is…

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  76. Really hope to see Altherr win the next round. Would love to see the arguments regarding Rizzotti against Aumont for #15.

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  77. I think Altherr will runaway with the next pick.
    He will likely pick up most of the Santana supporters.

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  78. phillychuck
    You pretty much covered it all. Nice job. Nothing left for me to do but make popcorn.
    I revisited Eric Pettis very interesting. One point the guy really keeps the ball in the park.

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  79. “If he could field he would be better than John Olerud or Mark Grace.”
    LOL. One of the funniest things I’ve read here.
    If I could hit a curve ball and 90 MPH fastball I would be a major leaguer

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  80. That hoped-for shortstop, Lee of the Cubs, was just traded to the Rays in a multi-player trade.

    I’m sorry, too.

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  82. Okay. is Wilson Valdez still with the big club? I d not see him mentioned when you all were naming the bench. It is a serious question. Been real busy and out of loop.

    Voted Hyatt here. Why? not sure. A hunch. I think he will continue to miss bats in Reading this year. He may be moved to the pen which would possibly move him down in my rankings. Had Happ rated real high a few years ago and have a feeling on Hyatt

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  84. I really think there should be a number with An0nynous. Like
    anonymous I or 2. So we know which ANNOYMOUS (almost missed it chuck) is well anonymous.
    One serious thought: We have all seen the money thrown around this winter. I think it is even more important to grow your own because it’s
    getting crazy again.

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  85. On The Rizz:

    Only help to the Phils would be by including him in a trade to get (?). Can’t play 1st base, blocked there by both Howard and Singleton (who’d play there if Howard were traded).

    He belongs in the AL, which we do know…….as a DH. Making a left fielder out of him would be a fool’s errand; he can’t really play an adequate 1st base. He is slow, can’t field worth a damn, and is 25 yrs old. Who knows even if he has enough arm to throw well back to the proper infielder on plays.

    IMO, theRizz has only trade value, and that is not a very good recommendation to include him over real future prospects such as Altherr, Santana, Hernandez, Pettibone, etc. all of who could take a place on a future Phils team.

    Nevertheless, I hope he does well…and maybe he could have a decent career in the AL as that DH.

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  86. Going with Santana….I like the potential here…especially the right handed power bat…still just 18

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  90. 1) Beckham will grow out of shortstop.
    2) Aumont throws a lot harder than mid 80’s… more like mid 90’s and he should be next on the list.
    3) Unless catastrophic injuries occur to Howard AND Utley, Rizzotti will never see much time with the Phillies.
    4) Darwin Barney was the SS I liked from the Cubs. Look at his stas and his description, Wilson Valdez with a bat.
    5)I am beginning to think they will wait until Spring Training to move Blanton, if at all. They want to see if anyone gets hurt on our roster and on everyone elses. If a top 3 guy on the Yankees blows up, Blanton will be worth more in trade and they don’t start paying people until Feb anyway.

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  91. This one if over so I would like to get Stutes on the ballot at least. Outside of his double jump 8-8 year, he has only lost 3 games. Some guys win when others with better stuff lose. Why??? I don’t know but …..

    OTHER Stutes

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  93. Answer: No reason on earth. A POSSIBLE DH type and a guy who’s never played full season for an impact player? No offense, but I used to write trades like that on a piece of loose leaf as an 11-yr old, thinking that anyone with just a little to recommend them, packaged together with someone else, would get you something really good. That would be right after I fantasized about root beer flowing from our kitchen faucet.

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  94. Beckham’s minor league stats somewhat similar to Rollins in minors. Rollins had a little more power, walked less. Rollins OPS: .711, Beckham: .706. Is Beckham a good fielder. Just wondered how he has played out since being #1 overall. His performance does not see that great as a pro. Passable, and likely a major leaguer, but wondered if there were hidden talents waiting to flower and how good a fielder he was.

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  95. I would have gone with Aumont if he projected as a starter, but that’s still up in the air at this point. So Santana. But Aumont still has tremendous upside, it’s just becoming less likely that he hits that ceiling. If he turns out to be Madson I’d be thrilled.

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  96. Although Tim Beckham has been a disappointment as a 1st overall pick he still is a good prospect. Tampa would laugh at that kind of offer. He would be at least the 5th best prospect in the Phillies system, if not higher. Start with Trevor May+ for Beckham.

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  97. After I read what Chuck Lamar said about Altherr, that if there is a Minor League Fantasy Team to get him, I don’t think that the Phillies would consider that trade. When its all said and done he will be better then any of our prospects. He played the last few weeks of the season with a wrist injury similar to Colliers and still kept hitting.
    I can’t wait for the season to start.

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  98. I voted for Santana here based on his power and age. I like Hernandez, Altherr, and Aumont as well, but I like Santana’s projection the most. Santana still has a ton of time to figure out his contact problems, and he has already displayed plus power at a young age.

    I mentioned the idea of getting Hak-Ju Lee for Blanton. A number of scouts love Lee – plus glove, speed, and hitting for average, with average power projection. One scout made a Jose Reyes comp. I thought that the Phils would have had to overpay (e.g. Blanton plus one of our high minors relief prospects and $4 million for Lee and organizational filler) to get the deal done, but in light of the Garza deal, I wonder what the Phils would have needed to throw in to make a Blanton-Lee trade work. Last season, Blanton had higher K/9 and groundball rates (important in homer-friendly Wrigley) than Garza did and they had the same BB/9. Of course, Garza is younger and under control for more years, while Blanton came off an awful season in terms of traditional statistics.

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  99. Why would Tampa do the deal?
    1st. – Just traded for a SS Prospect
    2nd – Lost Pena at 1st and DH
    3rd – Lost Crawford.

    By no means am i saying that Atherr is a crawford replacement but Beckham won’t crack there top 15. He will most likely be moved to 3rd and is blocked by evan. He is blocked at SS on big league club and by Prospect. This is a trade to jump start Beckham. Atherr is a talent that may not get alot of love on this site but is well loved by phills and scouts. It was just a thought at trying to get some depth at 3rd.

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  100. Blanton is NOT a comp for Matt Garza. Garza struggles with command, but, his stuff is so good that, at any time, he could become a perennial Cy Young candidate. Not so with Blaton.

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  102. Sad news for the Phillies’ family by the way as the 9 year old girl shot in the Arizona tragedy was Dallas Green’s granddaughter.

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  103. Since when do team’s trade major league players as part of a package to get a prospect. Time to rehash that 5 MLB players for Matt Gamel thing. Hak Ju Lee , as determined by Kieth Law (and many believe whatever he says) was the Cubs top prospect. The whole purpose of trading Joe Blanton is to free up salary, not to rake in the best prospects of the minors.
    As to the whole let’s trade an MLB guy we don’t want plus a couple of outfield and pitching prospects for a top of the line SS prospect crowd. OF and P prospects are plentiful and SS (and 3B) prospects are scarce. Before proposing the (non-existent) prospect for prospect trades, you should have to issue a lengthy treatise on why someone would trade something that is scarce for something that is plentiful.
    Up above somebody mentioned Beckham, and later it said he was impact player. I thought the subject was Tim Beckham , not Gordon Beckham. But Gordon Beckham is not an impact player either, so you must be thinking of that guy from England who Married P.O.S.H. Spice.
    As to trading for Tim Beckham, OF and P prospects are plentiful, SS (and 3B) prospects are rare. Before posting a (non-existent) prospect for prospect trade you should issue a lengthy treatise on why someone would trade something that is rare for something that is plentiful.

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  104. Other issues aside, why would you make a big trade to take a lottery ticket for the future? Wait until you actually NEED a third baseman or shortstop, and then trade for a player who can help you NOW.

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  105. Dont understand the Santana vote. I know he is young, but young does not equate with talented enough to make the major leagues. Why dont we let him do somethng first, before we all jump on the bandwagon ?

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  106. Santana at 13 should be pretty easy to understand, considering BA has him at 9 and Sickels has him at 8. When scouts love a guy, it means he is more than just young. You also might want to take a look at his 2009 #s from the GCL, where he put up an .897 OPS as a 16/17 year old. They rushed him to Lakewood last year and it set him back a bit. If he uses that as a learning experience he could easily be top 5 next year. This isn’t a list of who played the best in 2010, it is a prospects list. Potential counts.

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  107. I think Rizz’s cieling is that of a Jack Cust-type player.

    Solid DH/1B who can contribute with the bat for an AL team.

    I would put him in the 15-20 range.

    Went with Santana here…. tons of upside.

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  108. Matt Rizzotti hasn’t demonstrated half the power that Jack Cust did in the minors. Rizzotti is close to his physical peak and has never hit more than 17 HRs in a season. Jack Cust had more minor league HRs by the age of 21 than Rizzotti has now, at the age of 25. Cust had an age 21 season at AA that was as good as Rizzotti’s 3 months at Reading. DH’s with no speed and marginal power are not in great demand.
    Rizzotti isn’t in Cust’s class and Cust himself is a fringe Major Leaguer.

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  110. PC: Where are you getting your info on Aumont throwing 84-86. He has been known to throw 93-97. That’s a huge, dramatic difference and would have been more publicized. Are you certain his velocity has decreased for real? Was that a single game you saw? A short strecth of games? A good part of the season? If he was throwing 84, then how could he have been somewhat more effective when sent down to Clearwater. I must have missed somehting, but I did not know a decrease in velocity was his problem. All articles I have seen focused on his control, issuing walks. Maybe he pitched a stretch where he was simply spotting the ball and not throwing with any conviction? Call me confused.

    -DD

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  111. PC: That was me above. My daugheter is sing my Mac laptop and I went on from my PC, forgot to enter a name.

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  113. Johnson was in the Majors by Age 22. Its up the for one of the most ridiculous comps ever made by someone here.

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  115. “2011 will be the year of the Rizz.”

    Now THAT would be surprising. But, let’s say you’re right (I doubt you are) and he does have a breakout year? Where the heck do you put him? How does he end up as anything but trade bait?

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  116. Uninformed columnist laugh of the day. Here’s a bit of brilliant revisionist history from the Phillies own website:

    “Trevor May, RHP
    After a strong showing with Class A Lakewood in 2009, May was expected to dominate the South Atlantic League this season. The former fourth-round Draft pick did just that out of the gate for Lakewood, striking out 92 batters in 65 innings. His strong early performance earned a promotion to Class A Advanced Clearwater, where the right-hander continued to put up good strikeout numbers, but struggled with his command — averaging 6.8 walks per nine innings. That could partially be attributed to fatigue as May, 20, nearly doubled his previous career high of 77 1/3 innings last season.”

    That would be very interesting if May had actually been promoted instead of demoted. They got his entire year backwards. Doesn’t anybody with the Phillies read this stuff?

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  117. Nick Johnson is a tremendous fielder also….which alone makes him a bad comp for Rizz. I think I know why everyone is struggling to come up with a good major league comp for the “Rizz”. Its because guys with his profile, talent, and production DO NOT make the majors!!!!! He’s a AAAA player. aceept it. Deal with it. Move on Rizz lovers.

    The AL DH predictions just make me laugh. Just because he can field doesnt mean he can DH in the AL!!! There are 14 DH spots in MLB people. And you think that a non-prospect with a bad body and no position that flashed for 3 months in AAA as a 24 year old is a contender for one of those spots??? How many guys make the majors as a DH? Arent most DHs more experienced players that can hit, but can no longer play the field?

    At most, he is an extreme longshot to ever hold down a regular position in the major leagues. If he can make it as a bench player then that is great. No shame in that. But lets relax with the DH talk please

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  118. To clarify my stance on dealing Blanton:

    Catch: I never said that Blanton was a comp for Garza. I was trying to show that the gap between Garza and Blanton is not as large as most perceive it to be. Garza obviously is more valuable – he has decent control and can still improve his K/9, while Blanton has likely peaked, is more expensive, and is under control for fewer years. However, the Cubs dealt two of their top-5 prospects (Archer and Lee), an interesting 11-20 prospect (Chirinos), a Tagg Bozied type, and a warm body for Garza and two warm bodies. Most people are saying that the Cubs got robbed, so I wonder what they would have given up to get Blanton.

    Marfis: The Cubs had pretty terrible starting pitching, and up until a few days ago, most indications were that the Rays were not trading Garza, so the SP market was pretty dry. Their bullpen was pretty awful as well, so the Cubbies would have been fixing two of their biggest problems last year. I didn’t say that it would necessarily be a fair trade – the Rays seem to have (at this time) won the trade handily – but seeing that the Cubs overpaid for Garza, I was wondering if they would have been willing to overpay for Blanton given the awful market for SP.

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  119. DD,

    I heard early from some Reading fans that Aumont was throwing in the mid-80’s. I then saw him pitch 3 times, all 3 times he failed to top 86 (which I couldn’t believe), while other R-Phils pitchers and the opponents were easily soaring into the 90s on the same gun.

    He looked like he was short-arming the ball. Don’t know if he was hurt, or trying to refine his mechanics, but he was flat out-awful.

    Didn’t read that he regained his velocity at CLW, and his stats sure don’t look like he was pitching much better. Didn’t like him when we traded for him, like him less now.

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  120. In 420 games at double a in 1999, Nick Johnson hit .345 with 14 homeruns. In 266 games at double a in 2010, Matt Rizzotti hit .361 with 16 homeruns. I realize that at 25 Matt Rizzotti hasn’t played in the majors yet and at 25 Johnson was already in his 4th MLB season but if Matt Rizzotti continues to play how he did last year, I think that he could be a Nick Johnson type major league player. Also, they are both lefties. Rizzotti is listed at 6’5 235 and Johnson is listed at 6’3 195 so Rizzotti is also a little bigger.

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  121. A thousand times no.

    1. Nick Johnson was FOUR years younger in AA than Rizzotti was. That’s a huge difference.
    2. Johnson walked 123 times. His OBP was an ungodly .525. That’s just incredible, and not in Rizzotti’s universe.
    3. Johnson had produced an OPS above 1.000 the year before in Tampa, as a teenager in a pitchers league.
    4. Johnson was well regarded for his fielding. Rizzotti is….not. Johnson was an agile player. Rizzotti is a wall.

    It’s ridiculous. It’s an utterly implausable comparison to anyone who actually watched both players.

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  122. Johnson looked like the next superstar when he came up. Injuries have always limited that great ability. Baseball can be a cruel sport. The Rizz is not in his class but really we don’t know which class he is in other than late bloomer.
    SAD NOTE: we were gifted with two new grandchildren six days apart.
    They have brought joy to our lives. My desktop pix will be that of Dallas Green’s granddaughter for some time to come. There have been many such political murders during my like but none that involved such innocents. The Tea Party can rot in hell.

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  124. The mother of the youngest casualty of Saturday’s mass shooting said Sunday that both her children — 9-year-old Christina-Taylor Green as well as her 11-year-old Dallas Green— were invited to the outdoor rally hosted by Giffords, but Dallas, may have been saved by the a conflicting karate practice.

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  125. Yea Nowheels, as a Pot-smoking, Athiest who believed that 9-11 was an inside job, the shooter certainly fits the profile of your typical tea-partier.

    Its pathetic that people of any political persuasion are trying to use this tragedy to score points.

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  126. PC: Thanks for the answer. I will keep it in mind when following Aumont this year. I googled Aumont and have received reports of him throwing in the 90s recently, not sure if that included 2010.

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  128. Seriously this isn’t a place for your political or religous agenda. To attack or blame any group for the insane actions of 1 clearly disturbed individual is ludicrous.

    Our hearts go out to Dallas Green and his family, let’s leave it at that.

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