2011 Reader Top 30, #12

2011 Reader Top 30

Jiwan James emerged victorious in the voting for #11, so we move on to #12. Cesar Hernandez received the most write-in support, outside of the bizarre Derek Mitchell nominations. Maybe someone can explain that one to me. Anyway, moving along…

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP
6. Sebastian Valle, C
7. Vance Worley, RHP
8. Jesse Biddle, LHP
9. Tyson Gillies, OF
10. Justin De Fratus, RHP
11. Jiwan James, OF
12.

edit –> I messed up when creating this, called it #11, obviously its #12. I fixed it, but it might take a while to update.

108 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #12”

  1. Domingo Santana, again, for ceiling-related reasons previously enumerated. To me, his drop down the prospect list here is actually shaping up to be the biggest surprise of the exercise. The guy was PP’s #4 prospect last year, and #6 in the readers poll. Suffice it to say its a surprise to see him lagging behind Jiwan James, who I like but who whose numbers are hardly knock-your-socks-off.

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  2. I would think you should at least have the courtesy to spell his name correctly. Explanation: You said type “OTHER: Name” to have someone added. I wanted Derrick to be added so I typed OTHER: Derrick Mitchell. Apparently a few other posters did as well.

    He is no less deserving to be on the list than James is to be #11. Even just stat checkers will back that up.

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  3. Other – Korby Mintken. I realize he’s old, has repeated leagues, and has virtually no ceiling, but I want his name on this list. If, out of common sense, you don’t put him as an option, I will moan and groan in the next comments section.

    (This was sarcasm)

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  4. Wow, I missed a chance to vote for JRod. I believe age performance is by far the best indicator of future performance. Once JRod goes in I’ll consider jumping on the Mintken bandwagon. (that’s Russian for Pettibone, I believe) Mitchell at 20 or so is not a huge stretch, though.

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  5. I voted Julio Rodriguez again and will vote Santana next, if I get the chance. I’m finally in the majority, although the order may end up reversed.

    Have people decided Bastardo and Mathieson are is not eligible despite have less than 50 innings? It makes sense, since both have been in the majors or on the major league DL long enough that I suspect both are ineligible for Rookie of the Year. Otherwise, I’m surprised neither is on the ballot yet. Unlike Gillies, both had good seasons and were in the Readers Top 11 last year. I am disappointed that Phuture Phillies has made it clear this year who is no longer eligible. I wouldn’t select either reliever yet but it would be time to start thinking about them after about a half dozen more rounds if they are indeed eligible for this poll. Here is what I will do. I won’t write in either, but if they appear on the poll then I will consider them. I’m not sold on Mathieson, but I like Bastardo. He reminds me of Romero of a few years ago, lots of walks, but hard to hit. I think he’s better than Romero now, and that Charlie will reverse their roles, assuming of course that Romero passes his physical and makes the team.

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  6. I like Aaron Altherr in this spot, but I may vote Julio Rodriguez, because I like him more than Santana.

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  7. Frank Reynolds –

    I think your selection is great, and you had me after your first sentence. There was no need to say more.

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  8. Santana is my guy because he is still so young and building into his frame, once he figures it out he could be a big time player.

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  10. I voted Santana. Huge upside and he’s young. He has some warts but I’m hoping that’s age related.

    Did you know? The leader in Total Bases in the Phillies minor leagues was Overbeck (240). Rizz was a close 2nd, followed by Bozied, Ruf, Tracy, Castro, Mayberry, James, Brown & Susdorf. Ruf and Susdorf were big surprises to me. They aren’t even in my honorable mention category for top 30. I left the AAAA guys on but if you wanted a true prospect top 10 in TB, Valle, Garcia and Singleton would be added and in that order.

    I left Bastardo off my top 30 because it seems he’s been on the ML roster for a long time. Scott M. is #23 on my list.

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  12. Mitchell was Rule 5 eligible and not selected. There’s n0 way a guy like that is good enough to rank in this system.

    I selected Cesar Hernandez for this spot, due to his speed and batting eye. I’m likely alone in that assessment, so my second choice after Hernandez would be Santana.

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  13. Went with JRod. Don’t mean to knock Santana, Altherr or anyone else, just felt that JRod put up some pretty impressive numbers and hopefully will continue to add a little velocity as he fills out. All 3 have big potential, JRod has put up better numbers to date.

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  15. Also went with Rodriguez in this spot. Was a toss-up between him and terrific looking Mitchell guy who will probably have a real break out season in his 3rd year at Clearwater. No doubt by June/July when he’s tearing it up you will all be ready to move him into the top-5 🙂

    Keep you fingers crossed

    As for the Bastardo/Mathieson question, I don’t consider Bastardo eligible since he spend basically a full season on the Major league roster. Mathieson I do consider still eligible but have quite a few guys in front of him at this point.

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  16. Rodriguez for me. Santana has huge upside, tons of potential, really young, etc etc, but Rodriguez has actually put up some numbers, and those numbers were ridiculously impressive. Throw in the fact that it looks like his velocity is sitting in the low 90s (from multiple scouting reports) and I think he’s a stud.

    – Jeff

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  17. Santana again. Is Mitchell really not being promoted to Reading? I thought for the sake of making room for younger guys to play regularly they would move him up, plus it can’t hurt to see how he handles himself. Another year at A+ isn’t going to make him suddenly figure it all out, right?

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  18. The Lakewood RF (Anthony Hewitt) failed to earn a promotion. So there’s no incumbant RF in Clearwater to take Mitchell’s job.

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  19. I can’t find a reasonable knock on Julio Rodriquez anywhere. The best I saw was that his velocity topped out at 90 early on. But I’ve seen numerous citations since then that state his velocity has hit 93. And the report on Scouting the Sally says if/when he improves his leg utilization/mechanics (to go along with ideal size), his velocity will likely increase a few mph.

    Anyway, his stats are flat-out filthy (e.g. K/IP). He is age appropriate or better. And he was dominant in the playoffs last year.

    He was #9 on my list. So I will continue to vote for him.

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  20. I just meant because he’s been two full years in the league, and techincally he did progress statistically, so give someone else a chance kind of thing. Not that there was someone in particular to push him out of the spot.

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  21. I am pulling for Overbeck, but he has all of the classic signs of a guy who will never be able to make it above AAA. He is a late bloomer, he does not have truly outstanding power, his plate discipline is only okay, he is (by all reports) a stiff and not very effective fielder, he does not have great speed, and has only once hit for a good average and, then, it was at a level where he was an older prospect. To be a good prospect, he is probably going to have to have a great season this year. There’s still a chance he could develop into a major leaguer – but it’s a very slim chance and it’s as a power hitting super-utility guy. Basically, another Jason Michaels.

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  25. I dont understand some on the nomination list.
    Hyatt? He is 24 and have below average stats in AA. Whats his upside? LOOGY?
    Pettibone? 84 K in 113 innings. dont see upside there either.

    Players I think who should be ahead of them:
    Josh Zeid (granted he will be 24 also but at least didnt have crap numbers.. AFL rising stars game.. 9.31 K/9 and 2.93 ERA… Big test will be how he does at AA)

    Some of the 2010 picks. Not sure about Garner.. Rupp? some of the late pitchers we signed?

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  26. actually hyatt will be 25 this year. granted he has a great k/9. but he is old.. and there is no place for him in the organization.. unless he goes to the pen.. becomes a AAAA Andrew Carpenter type.. or traded.. but his trade value cant be that high

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  27. I have Hyatt in the 20s. I’ve doubted him, but plenty of relievers have established themselves in their mid to late 20s (even some future HOFers). As part of the “Free Colter Bean” brigade in Scranton years ago, I can’t deny a player completely who produces.

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  28. One of the problems with a blog is that you end up having the same discussions/arguments over and over again, but with different people. On Hyatt – he has done extremely well in the system and dominated in high A ball last year with tons of strikeouts. His ERA in AA was a little high, but he continued the Ks and, by the way, it was 4 games! The concerns are legitimate, but so long as he continues to do well and strikeout out everyone in sight, he bears watching. By the way, the reports on his velocity vary. I’ve heard from 89-91, but last year and in 2009, heard he was occasionally in the mid-90s. Oddly enough, my experience, historically, is that the velocity reports from the minors actually tend to understate velocity, sometimes by quite a bit. Both Bastardo and Worley throw notably harder than the minor league reports reflects. So it would not surprise me if Hyatt is in the 91-94 range. If your ball moves, you have good command and you have good breaking pitches (Hyatt, apparently, has a killer change-up), you can be a very good pitcher with that velocity.

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  29. OTHER–GALVIS

    These picks make no sense–Jiwan James 11..please. I will be shocked if he ever sees Reading! Mitchell is just as deserving as James!

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  31. Julio Rodriguez again. Santana’s good athlete with alot of promise and should work his way on soon, but , come on, alot of the voting here seems to be some checking themselves and trying to conform themselves to the exalted Baseball America and their omniscience.
    You’re right, don’t see much upside for Hyatt as a LOOGY unless he starts throwing with the other arm. The stats in Reading are inconsequential or as some birds would say, small sample, small sample.
    Derrick Mitchell staying in Clearwater, way off. Reading OF complicated by Tyson Gillies inability to be placed in AAA, but past him I got D’Arby Myers , Derrick Mitchell, and Steve Susdorf. And maybe Kennelly who can slide to 3B, 1B, and C. That’s it. As for Clearwater you got Leandro Castro RF, Jiwan James CF, and Jon Singleton LF, prospects of sorts, all , plus also you have Michael Dabbs, Brian Gump, and Drew Rundle. If Mitchell would be evaluated that low , it is release. And who ever said a replacement must be ready to promote a player. I know that Hewitt is listed as having played RF mostly last season by Baseball Register, but I’d say Leandro Castro played RF mostly and that Hewitt was more of LF-DH.

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  32. J-Rod due to his age and numbers, but I wouldn’t be disappointed with Santana here. If J-Rod wins, I’ll vote for Santana next. I’m not surprised at Santana’s drop. His 2009 year looked awesome, especially for his age (.288/.388/.508 in 118 ABs). His 2010 year looked crappy (.211/.329/.333 in 351 ABs), but you give him a mulligan because of his age and tools. So I think it is logical to move him down the ratings list.

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  33. I went with Pettibone again based on his 2nd half,the fact that he was only 20, and that I liked what I saw when watching him pitch. The James vs Mitchell comparison is silly. James is a fast CF that if it all comes together for him, will be in the majors. If it doesn’t, he won’t. By the way, I know for a fact that the minor league pitchers love having James play behind them. When the pitchers prefer you as a CF, that’s a big deal. Mitchell is a classic possible 4A guy and won’t make a list like this. He will however be playing OF in Reading this coming season (with Gillies, Myers, and Kennelly plus career guys). Hewitt’s spot in the OF was taken by Singleton and Castro will slide over and play RF. Overbeck has a chance to be something more based on his half season at C Water plus the power he showed at Reading at the end. This will be a huge season for him in determining his future. Reality check: Most minor leaguers don’t make the majors! I found the comments about Gose interesting. I’ve only seen him in ST so I never saw that side to him. He’s far from being a guarantee to make the majors also.

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  34. why does everyone hate aumont? dude still throws pretty hard with nasty sink. he’s still fairly young, too.

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  35. Santana again. Pettibone is 12 on my list, but Santana is 9 so I’ll continue to vote for him until he is off the board. His power potential is too much to ignore.

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  36. This list is pretty much shaping up like mine. I have Santana at #13 so I voted him here. I really would like to see another year of J. Rodriguez. He wasn’t a highly touted prospect and I just tend to be cautious of those 1 year players. If he repeats his performance I could easily see him in the top 10.

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  37. I went with JRod over Santana, but will go with Santana next.

    Hyatt had 4(?) starts in AA last year, he deserves some votes, but he’s probably an early 20’s guy who ends up as an MLB reliever. Not bad

    Why is Derrick Mitchell getting any votes?!?!?!?

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  40. Hyatt backlash is surprising. He may not end up a starter but people were comparing Stutes to Chad Durbin and I have to believe that Hyatt is a better pitcher than Stutes. If Hyatt’s comp is similar than how is that bad?

    I understand he pitched in Clearwater last yr and how he was 24 but if he can become a future middle reliever that’s just another arm to have and not over pay the Baez’s and Romero’s of the world. Options are great to have. I believe that Hyatt will be an option for the Phills in the future.

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  42. I’ll speak for everyone, (why not)???? No one likes Aumont because he’s pitched terribly for the entrie time they’ve heard of him.

    Ok, there are probably other reasons. Starter v. Reliever, being large among them. I have him in the mix at 15-20 on my list.

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  43. Jamie makes a good point on Aumont. His tools are very high still and he’s young. I’m starting to rethink my placing of him.

    Marfis and others got me thinking about OF placements this year. It’s an absolute mess. Here’s a guess:

    AA: Gillies, Susdorf, Myers, Mitchell, Kennelly (utility)
    A+: Singleton, James, Castro, Eldemire
    A-: Alvarez, Altherr, Santana, Hewitt, Collier?
    SS: Mendez, Hudson, Dugan, Collier?
    GCL: Pointer, Unda, Beltre

    I know I excluded a lot of other guys in the system, but I just don’t see room for them. This is a headache and I would welcome comments on where I’m wrong or whom I forgot.

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  45. Went with Rodriguez.

    My take on Santana falling: He has fallen so far in many people’s eyes because a 46% K rate is about the single largest red flag of probably any player on the list of options right now. His tools and ceiling will get him placed in the next 2 picks (which seems about right to me). He’s very young, is playing against superior skills right now, so it’s not worth panicking and writing him off, but ignoring it (or bizarrely touting his mythical plate discipline?!?!) is just completely ignoring reality.

    Mathieson is no longer a prospect, as he is 26, so he shouldn’t really be on a list like this.

    Bastardo is 25, so he could be on here, but the value of a LOOGY is not significant.

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  46. Boston Phan, I think its awfully optimistic to have Eldemire in Clearwater when he’s never had a pro AB. I think Dugan has the bat to handle Lakewood. I think Santana will go to XST as he really didn’t master Williamsport and the Phils may not want to make the same mistake twice. The Williamsport and GCL rosters I never speculate on since those are determined a great deal by the draft.

    Cormican- If I had to put an age limit on a prospect I’d say 27. But I don’t believe that a player is necessarily too old as there are special cases here and there. Six pitchers this decade alone have debuted at 28 or older and given their teams at least one win above replacement.

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  47. Went with JRod again. He is young and knows how to pitch. Santana is younger, but it is not clear that he knows how to hit. He may learn, but for now he is closer to 20 than to 10 on my list.

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  48. I should give that list. Brad Ziegler, Bobby Madritsch, Aquilino Lopez, Brendan Donnelly, Mark Hendrickson, Rafael Betancourt. There are others but I excluded Cuban/Japanese imports.

    I see Mathieson as similar to Hong-Chih Kuo. Another pitcher who endured two TJ surgeries but came back and is now a highly capable MLB pitcher. Of course Mathieson throws with the other arm, but Kuo isn’t a LOOGY.

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    1. That’s not a scouting report. That’s a blog by some guy named Pete, who might know something about scouting baseball talent but probably doesn’t

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  50. Didn’t know there is an upper age limit cut-off on here, may be a good idea, but would have thought it was violated by now, maybe even last time. Expect to see some Mayberry, Mathieson votes soon.

    Minor League OF’s , I figure:
    AA- Derrick Mitchell LF, Tyson Gillies CF, Steve Susdorf RF, D’Arby Myers OF, Tim Kennelly C-IF-OF
    Clearwater- Jon Singleton LF, Jiwan James CF, Leandro Castro RF, Michael Dabbs OF, (Brian Gump OF, Drew Rundle OF)
    Lakewood- Miguel Alvarez LF, Aaron Altherr CF, Domingo Santana RF, Anthony Hewitt OF-DH, Jeffrey Cusick (1B-OF) (Fabio Murakami OF) (Kelly Dugan starts at 1B in this scenario)
    EST (WPT) Geancarlo Mendez LF, Kyrell Hudson CF, Gauntlett Eldemire RF, Zach Collier OF
    EST (GCL) Luis Unda LF, Brian Pointer CF, Luis Beltre RF, Alexis Salazar OF, Bill Rice OF
    That’s how I see it to start the next season.

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  51. ***Julio Rodriguez here because he has produced. I will place Santana higher when he produces.***

    Potential and Ceiling come into it just a little bit.

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  52. The very fact that Santana was playing at all in Lakewood at Age 17 should tell you something about his potential. The fact that he was a pro at Age 16 should tell you something too.

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  53. If Recliner GM is the authority- despite all that Santana still rates as #16 prospect in system and is rated ahead of Tyson Gillies (17) also they have Harold Garcia at 18, Phillipe Aumont at 19, and Michael Schwimer at 20. Also last season’s list can be noted Gillies from 4 to 17, Aumont from 2 to 19, Trevor May at 3, lots of stuff to question there.

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  54. I agree that Santana’s K rate is a concern, but whatever it is, it isn’t evidence of lack of plate discipline. Plate discipline is about not swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. His high BB rate is evidence that he has good plate discipline. His high K rates are evidence of lack of contact skills. That’s a real issue, but it has nothing to do with plate discipline.

    The good news – and why some of us are a little more optimistic than others about Santana – is that poor contact skills are much easier to correct than poor plate discipline.

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  56. Agreed…if Santana were striking out at a 46% clip and never walking, I would drop him way down on my list as well. I’m speculating, but I’d guess he has some sort of a hitch in his swing that can hopefully be cleaned up with continued coaching and practice. He’ll be the age of a high school senior this year, so age is certainly a factor.

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  58. OT: Not sure where to post this so pardon my breach of etiquette. The question is if you had to choose one minor league pay publication to purchase which one would you choose? Price isn’t an issue. TIA.

    Admin please feel free to move this to the appropriate forum sorry again just didn’t know where to post it.

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  59. Aumont. #2 prospect for Seattle last year. He has a load of talent and last year was an adjustment to a new organization. 2011 is his year. I think if they need an arm in September he could be called up that’s how well I think he will do this year.

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  60. I’m still really irritated that Jiwan James is anything lower then 15… 1 average year, playing a position he wasn’t drafted for. I get that he has tools, and that his midseason was good, but ranking him ahead of J-rod is a travisty. J-rod got promoted, put up better numbers, doesn’t walk a terrible amount and strikes out a ton. If the knock on him is his lack of velo I’m not sure that is a huge issue, if he can average 92 on the gun (topping out at 93/94) his stuff lends to him being able to maintain his performance in higher levels. What do we always say when it comes to hard throwers who move up, “you can’t get by on just your fast ball”, given his 12+ k/9 there is no reason to think he doesn’t have either 1 of 2 things, excellent movement on his fastball AND a plus secondary pitch (great shot at making the BP) OR excellent command and multiple plus secondary pitches. I think this kid has the potential to be electric and have been voting for him since 9…. Further, if he makes the move to high A continues to dominate at the ripe age of 20 he’ll be right up there with cosart/colvin/may come this time next year.

    Here is the most recent scouting report I read on him from december 2010:

    “Rodriguez featured a fastball that I clocked on the scoreboard between 90-93 MPH, sitting primarily at 91. He used his 4 seem fastball up in the zone, utilizing very good rising action. He was not afraid to challenge a weak hitting Delmarva lineup, constantly peppering his fastball for strikes. On more than one occasion, Rodriguez was able to use his fastball on the hands of right handed hitters, setting up his Curveball, diving out of the zone.

    In my brief game recap, I had commented that Rodriguez threw a slurvy curveball. I glanced at my scouting report on Shreve when I typed that recap. His 12 to 6 curveball is slow with sharp diving action out of the zone. The Stadium gun had him consistently throwing his curve between 75-77 Mph. He only threw it just over a half dozen times. When he did throw it, it usually resulted in a hitter flailing at the ball in the dirt. I did think he slowed down his motion a bit too much throwing the curve, which isn’t unusual for such a green pitcher. With that said, this is definitely an offering with promise. His third pitch, his changeup, was used on a couple of occasions. I recorded one reading of 83 MPH, noting good arm action. Not enough changeups were thrown for me to give an accurate scouting report.

    Julio Rodriguez was one of the two best pitchers I saw in the Sally this season. I wish I had seen him pitch more than 3 innings so I could compare him better to the other top pitching prospect I saw, Braves prospect Arodys Vizcaino. I am very surprised, even after his electric second half, an extremely positive write up by Kevin Goldstein, and a good winter ball start for Carolina in Puerto Rico, that Rodriguez isn’t viewed as a top prospect among Phillies fans.” – Chris Blessing (Who btw is a mets fan)

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  62. OT: Not sure where to post this so pardon my breach of etiquette. The question is if you had to choose one minor league pay publication to purchase which one would you choose? Price isn’t an issue. TIA.

    Admin please feel free to move this to the appropriate forum sorry again just didn’t know where to post it.

    Baseball America is the Bible. Online has a lot of features.

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  63. Covered this in a previous thread but a high BB rate does not automatically indicate good plate discipline, especially in the case of a guy who’s K rate in approaching 50%.

    Instead it might better be an indication of a passive approach or a lack of pitch recognition that results in his taking an extrordinary % of pitches. This would result in both elevated BB and K rates as his taking of pitches would regularly land him in deep counts. Until someone can show some numbers on the swing % from Santana I can’t just assume he has a good eye because he walks a lot.

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  64. Supra,

    I like Rodriguez as well but a scouting report from a contributer to the Scouting the Sally website based on 1 observance of 3 innings means little.

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  65. Is there an example of a batter who walks a lot but yet has poor plate discipline? Not talking contact skills here (like Adam Dunn). Fangraphs has percentage of pitches swung at outside the zone and other such stats but there seems to be a strong correlation between that and walks.

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  66. Easy explanation for the Mitchell nominations, PP………………………………legalized medical marijuana.

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  67. Having not seen Santana in person, nor looked up any swing trends, I agree with 3up. I have no idea whether he swings and misses at pitches that are hittable of if he’s swinging and missing at pitches 2 feet off the plate. The BB rate may be a good sign (I hope it is), but in combination with the ridiculous K rate I’m still worried about possible poor pitch recognition.

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  68. Rodriguez. Young, dominant, and with better scouting reports he seems like a great prospect.
    Not a big fan of James or Santana quite yet but both have some potentially great tools if they can actually learn to hit.
    I still like Bastardo (for 12-15 range) but it is very tough to evaluate him. Mathieson I have slightly lower but high velocity is a key tool to have. I like Aumont better and figure him in the Top15 since he has closer stuff and maybe the mentality to match.

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  69. I expect Eldemire will start at Lakewood with Altherr and Collier and Alvarez as the 4th OF and Hyatt as the DH. That’s crowded. I think they’ll hold Santana back and send him to W-port (with Hudson and Pointer) and I think Dugan will get moved to 1B/3B because he’s been passed in the OF. There’s a good chance that Collier will stay in FL for a few extra weeks before going to Lakewood. The guy who might get screwed is Alvarez who had a nice year last year but just doesn’t have the profile of the other guys and may struggled ABs. I’ll also be curious to see in ST if Savery takes any fly balls. He’d have more value if he also could play the OF although I assume he’ll start at 1B for Reading, with Ruf staying at C Water.

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  70. side note phils invited delwyn young to camp…i love this because i think he will battle mike martinez and josh barfield for last bench spot…also i think mayberry starts as 4th of leaving brown in aaa to get in a rythem again!!!

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  71. Matt Gelb said that Schwim and Stutes have been invited to Big League Camp!!!

    Also, Phillies invited Delwyn Young…. interesting.

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  72. Alan,

    Don’t know that there are any comparibles since someone with a that high a K % usually don’t advance very far. Only guy in the majors close is Mark Reynolds who’s career walk rate is around 13% with a K rate of 38%.

    His O-swing % (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) is 26% and his overall swing % is just under 48%, meaning that he takes more than half the pitches he sees but when he does swing, 1/4 of the time it is at a ball.

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  74. Should also add that Reynolds’ contact % is a little under 63% so he swings and misses a little less than 4 out of 1o times.

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  75. One final point in the Mark Reynolds comparison that should serve as a cautionary flag for Santana. Reynolds K rate increased as he moved through the system while his walk rate stayed flat.

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  77. BTW the reason I don’t have Bastardo yet is that I no longer consider him to be a minor leaguer, given the amount of time in majors. Not sure whether to list Mathieson or not. A big issue with him is Phillies failure to use him in majors last season. This year is his last shot, yet we seem to be filling the pen with vets. For some reason, Phils just don’t trust Mathieson. I know he’s learning a new pitch. He has been at high levels and up and down enough that it’s hard to think of him as still a prospective rookie and eligible for this list. It seemed easier to just not include him this year, given all the other prospects. I think same with Mayberry. If I counted these three, I think I’d have Bastardo about 12, Mathieson about 14, and Mayberry about 30. I’d rather just rank the younger guys who haven’t seen any more of the majors than a Worley who just popped his head up there once and on the normal schedule. There are a lot of career AAAA guys who could be considered somewhere on the list based on ‘proximity’ and production, but really no fun in that.

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  79. Bastardo is no longer a rookie per MLB rules so he’s excluded. I believe that Mathieson still is though. He’s approaching non-prospect status quite rapidly though. I’d maybe have him in the 20-30 range.

    Mayberry doesn’t qualify either so he’s excluded too.

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  80. After Rodriguez and Santana, it is really close between Altherr, Pettibone, Garcia, and Aumont. I have Altherr at #15, Aumont at #16, Pettibone at #20, and Garcia at #25.

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  83. As far as Mathieson approaching non-prospect status… the guy dominated AAA hitters last year and then got one measly (though admittedly disastrous) inning on the ML level. I’m not sure why we’re downgrading him based on what might well be misuse by the front office. It’s just his bad luck that Robert Herndon sat in the bullpen all season, gathering cobwebs, taking up a spot that might well have been his otherwise. I’m still holding out hope that he’s off the prospect lists next year because he made the big league bullpen out of Spring Training. And holding my breath that his elbow doesn’t explode.

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  84. OTHER: Jeremy Barnes

    I know he will be turning 24 in April and likely starting in Clearwater but he played in college at Notre Dame and was only drafted in ’09…again not his fault that the Phils like to start their college level draftees at the same level as high school draftees.

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  86. Intimidated by all the numbers and favorable scouting reports Re: J-Roll.

    If we consider all his stats for ’10, he had one of the best in the whole Phils farm system, if not THE best. A young guy (20?) with the height already going toward 6’5 and weight to follow, even the top 5 starters listed above didn’t statistically out-match J-Roll.

    Considering those kind of numbers and promises of potential, he could several years ago have been at the head of the class. And we shouldn’t forget Pettibone, too.

    J-Rod!

    P.S. Does Pettis belong on the short list?

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  87. OTHER: J. C. Ramirez
    Was going to vote Rodriguez over Santana, but changed mind. Ramirez is a better prospect than most everybody left on list except thos guys.

    FWIW, Rusty took some flack for nominating Mitchell, but I don’t see Rizzotti as a significantly better prospect.

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  88. …me and Julio down by the ballyard…

    J-Rod gets my vote here. He has a better chance of making the Show than I have of figuring out the lyrics of Paul Simon’s song.

    …Goodbye Rosie, the Queen of Corona…

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  89. Art D. – Comparing him to other relievers left “on the board” – I’d consider Pettis to be behind Mathieson and Schwimer due to their proximity and AAA stats, and behind Aumont due to Aumont’s “stuff”. I’d say he’s on a similar level but possibly below Zeid and Stutes. He put up real good numbers in WIL, for sure, but a college guy in that league ought to overmatch a lot of the hitters easily, so it doesn’t prove much, making him, in my opinion, very hard to compare. And Zeid, another college guy, started his whole season in WIL a year earlier, so that’s not real helpful either.

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  90. One the one hand, Santana is young and has received a lot of hype – with a hot start in 2009 and scouts enamored with his man-childness.

    On the other hand, this guy had similar numbers to Anthony Hewitt this year… And I wonder if Anthony Hewitt makes the top 30…

    I guess a light bulb could go on – but he has to improve this year… that said, I I just don’t understand how you can rank him this high with a lot more information on him that is primarily negative. He should be much lower.

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  91. Petis might start the year as the closer in Lakewood so we should see what he has. Right now, he’s quite a bit farther down the list just due to his age. Did I miss seeing Mitchell hit 350? How is he the same as Rizz? What is the love for Mitchell? I will say that his 2nd half performance last year kept him from getting released. He at least showed a glimmer of what he could be. Anyone know when the minor league ST starts?

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  92. why is jon Pettibone getting no love? His stats arent that far off from Colvin,Cosart,and May other than K’s I feel like he is being vastly underrated by people voting.

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  94. Hard to believe but in just a few more minor league games over the last three seasons D-Mitch has hit 19 more doubles than Domonic Brown. Many of his doubles and fly ball outs at Lakewood and Clearwater will be home runs in Reading this year.

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  95. Rickey- That’s great. Of course, Brown also has almost 100 more hits, 120 more total bases and TWICE as many walks. C’mon, we’re supposed to be smarter than this. Mitchell has good power and can run, but none of that stuff matters because he can’t get on base.

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  96. Good thing for Mitchell that there’s no gap in talent between A-/A+ ball and AA ball.

    Oh wait.

    And there’s the point that Mitchell finished the year 3 levels below Brown despite being a year older.

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  97. Alan – I just checked the last two threads but didn’t find anything. I am just curious to see what other posters have to say because like i said even though his K numbers arent as high as the other three his other numbers are very comparable and his velocity has been in the mid 90’s he seems like another good pitching prospect for the phils.

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  98. To summarize basically, his K/9 was the worst of any of the Lakewood pitchers, his K/BB and HR/9 are below average for the team. I feel he may have benefitted from exceptional defense rather than his own ability. When a team doesn’t have a single bad pitcher, a lot probably has to do with team defense.

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  100. It’s not like Mitchell had a Hewitt-like batting average this year. He hit .264/.323/.447 in a pitcher’s league. And if the Phillies are going to draft “toolsy” picks, some of them are going to be late bloomers.

    That said, the nominations of him were a little ridiculous. No way he deserves to be the #11 prospect. Maybe I can make the case for him at #29 or #30.

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  101. Alan – I see your points but i think he is just developing his secondary pitches , his fastball is basically all that he has been counting on. I am very encouraged by his low whip and high innings pitched though and i put him at 13 on my list just because of his upside and I think this year he should breakout and be mentioned along with May, Cosart, and Colvin as the top pitching prospects for the phils.

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  102. Count me in the group who are high on Pettibone (#15 on my list – I voted J-Rod here). Pettibone’s second half showed much improvement, if memory serves. So his totals for the year (like Colvin and most young players who improve), are being weighed down by his first half. We’ll see.

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  103. As a reminder OTHER Derrick Mitchell in the post is an effort to put him on the list. Not necessarily a vote for the position that is up. If I clicked the other block above and wrote in Derrick Mitchell than I would be voting for him in that position.

    I quote “Remember, if you want to write in someone, or you want someone else added to the poll, please type the word OTHER in all caps in the comments. When searching for names to add, I do a search for the word other, and then add the names listed. Its easy.”

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  104. Other–Rizzotti

    Again, I believe Mitchell is no longer Phils’ property–he’s a 6-year minor league free agent, and I have not heard that he signed with us.

    If he were a year younger, and still a Phil, I’d think about him in the mid-20s. Great athlete, great size, some chance he starts making a bit more contact…

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  106. phillychuck- Derrick has one automatic renewal remaining. The 6 year term seems to be a misnomer. It is actually 6 auto renewals before minor league free agency. He will be a free agent after this season unless he is put on the 40 man roster.

    The list of Phillies minor league free agents (from baseball america):

    RHP: Jason Anderson (AA), Alexander Concepcion (AAA), Brandon Duckworth (AAA), Brian Gordon (AAA), Juan Sandoval (Hi A), Jay Stephens+ (AA), Ty Taubenheim (AAA), Oscar Villarreal (AAA), Ehren Wassermann+ (AAA)
    LHP: Kyle Carr (Lo A), Brian Mazone (AAA)
    C: Joel Naughton (Hi A), Kevin Nelson (AA), John Suomi (AA)
    1B: Andy Tracy (AAA)
    2B: Keoni DeRenne (AA), Melvin Dorta (AAA)
    3B: Cody Ransom (AAA), Neil Sellers (AAA)
    SS: Ozzie Chavez (AAA), Gabe Suarez (AA)
    OF: Kevin Mahar (AA), Timo Perez (AA), Ryne White (SS), Mike Spidale (AA), Rich Thompson (AAA)

    Obviously some of these guys signed after this list was generated. Such as Joel Naughton.

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