2011 Reader Top 30, #11

2011 Reader Top 30

Now that we’ve finished up the Top 10, with Justin De Fratus taking the #10 spot, we’re going to speed things up. I’m going to try and get to one vote per week day unless the voting is super close, then I’ll let it run a bit and just take 2 guys for 2 spots and move on. So, vote early. All in all, the top 10 as selected by the masses will look pretty similar to my top 10, but I won’t give it away yet. Once the Reader Top 30 is complete, I will go through my top 30 in sequential order. With lots of detail. I’ve already written blurbs for all 30 prospects, which you’ll find in the 2011 Phillies Maple Street Press Annual, edited this year by friends of phuturephillies at The Good Phight. But I plan to expound on those blurbs here, as well as including a long introduction. My unedited piece there was 7,000 words, I think I can more than double that here. But I’m rambling now. On to #11. Kelly Dugan received multiple write-in votes, so he’ll replace De Fratus in the poll for #11

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP
6. Sebastian Valle, C
7. Vance Worley, RHP
8. Jesse Biddle, LHP
9. Tyson Gillies, OF
10. Justin De Fratus, RHP
11.

112 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #11”

  1. Santana again, surprised he has slipped out of the top 10. Other than that list looks like I thought it would

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  3. Julio. Very young pitcher with lots of projection and already building an outstanding performance track record in minors and P.R.

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  4. Went with Rodriguez. I considered Santana and James, but my gut is telling me neither one will make it to the majors. I hope I’m wrong and I’m rooting for these guys – just voting with my gut.

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  6. Santana. They guy could be a beast. No one else at this point has as high a ceiling, and no one else is that much more of a sure thing. Of the list above, none has played a full season above A+, and Santana is the youngest and played 1/2 the season at low A, the other half in short season A. Im not going to say that he is a sure thing or that he had a great season last year, but some adversity can be a good thing, and he still kept his BB numbers up even though his average was down. I think his potential makes him the best choice in the risk/reward debate of who is the best prospect on the board.

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  9. Julio (-Rod) .

    His numbers in a full season of pro ball plus in winter ball have been outstanding (plus seeing a fast ball MPH at/near 94 with room for more height and weight which likely would add a mph or two)). Not to be ignored, even for the benefit of Mr. James…whose potential is within his athleticism but has yet to show itself baseball-successfully yet…with hopeful further realization soon. Just not yet, IMO. Looking for a breakout ’11 season for James and Altherr both.

    Being able to consider both J-Rod and Pettibone and Hyatt, too, shows a strong pitching future like never before for this franchise.

    Now, let’s get the future infield likelies for 3rd, SS, 2nd…with Cesar Hernandez a good one for 2nd base and lead-off hitter. Thus, 3b and SS are empty…unless we reluctantly name Galvis.

    Hoping that putting Blanton with ?? (Mathieson?, etc.) to somebody will yield help there….a couple of prospects, at least…

    J-Rod!

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  11. Julio for the third time, based on his stats, age, and fastball. I was okay with the pick of De Fratus and I like Gillies, IF he is over his leg problems, but that is a very big “if” in my mind.

    I’m reading the comments as I haven’t made up my mind for who is next, but it will probably be one of our 2 good speedy switch hitting good fielding second basement, Garcia or Hernandez, more likely Garcia because of his proximity and Hernandez’s lack of power. The outfielders all have potential of course, but they worry me. I don’t know if I can see putting Altherr ahead of Collier. They’re the same age, but Collier has already played in A ball, although not well. I’m not worried about Collier’s hand injury lingering and he was a first round sandwich pick.

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  12. staying julio…cant ignore the results last year…ihope worley can grab that 5th rotation pot and hold it for 2011 & 12 … i think they willbe up picking up oswalts option…so who would be first prospect to grab 5th spot assuming worley slides up…hyatt in 2013 or one of the big guns cosart colvin or may…cant we just win the next two world series and fast forward to 2013

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  13. I think Hernandez is far better than Garcia. Garcia isn’t that much of a power hitter either, and his plate discipline has me wary going forward.

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  15. Once again Im going with James…..people need to remember that last year was his 1st full year as a position player….this upcoming season should give everyone a great opportunity to see if his potential is just that or if he has legit substance…..I just looked at the entire list & I think Worley is the only 1 I have a problem with in the Top 10….he MAY be better than Kendrick but that isnt saying much…..I will be more than happy to eat crow on Vance if he wins the #5 spot and has a solid season….plenty of talent ahead of him that he can learn a thing or two from.

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  21. I will pick James here, but if Rodriguez takes the spot over him I could easily understand. I’ll probably go Altherr next, followed by Rodriguez. I think Altherr’s numbers are comparable to Dom Brown at the same age and level. If he would have played the entire season at Williamsport instead of part in the GCL, would have placed ahead of James and within my personal top 10.

    I wouldn’t have placed Worley ahead of Biddle. I also would not have DeFratus in the top 10(#13 or 14), but otherwise list is OK.

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  22. Going by the premise of many here that a starting pitcher carries more weight, my vote is for Rodriguez.

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  24. I’m certain there’s a good reason for voting a 23 year old, 23rd rounder who repeated Clearwater and had a .323 OBP as the #11 Phillies prospect. I’d like to hear it.

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  25. Santana. Yes, he struggled at Lakewood last year, but he was the age of a high school junior at the time. He has also shown great flashes of power and, most importantly, he seems to have unusually good plate discipline. That combined with the scouting reports puts him next in my view, although, frankly, to me, there is very little separating Santana, James, Rodriguez and Altherr.

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  26. Santana again. Alan, James gets votes because someone compared him to Brown. Only problem – they were comparing his body, not his skills.

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  27. All over Julio here. Sitting ‘quietly’ just outside the top 10 is a great place for him in my opinion. A write-in for Rizz to try to get him on the next ballot as well. Hyatt still getting no love. He’s next for me provided JRod makes a comeback here over Jiwan.

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  28. B in DC – agreed. And that’s not to mean bad things as far as James is concerned. I like his framework and he’ll be safely planted in my Top 20 around 15 or so.

    : )

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  29. I vote for Julio Rodriguez again, C’mon.

    As to Derrick Mitchell, I did not place him on the initial list and don’t seem to have him on top 30, mainly to the old age related to level thing which I do not strictly subscribe to , but hey. Can see another putting him on though, depending on what is valued and the potential for future improvement. Starts off with a top defensive OF they say, with alot of OF assists, and capable of playing 2B,SS, 3B on a reserve basis as has played around a full season of each before since signing. Also a top base runner with good stolen base percentage. As for the numbers, checked FSL league leaders and that OBP would be 33rd in league so not the worst, and Mitchell comes in at 5th in Slug Percentage (and team leader) and 7th in HR’s (team leader). So if Mitchell can solidify his production and improve on the next 2 steps up, could see an MLB bench role, which might exceed what others remaining might do, depending on how it is percieved by who is making the projection.

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  30. B in DC, I was talking about Mitchell. Of course James and Brown aren’t similar prospects. One is a power/speed corner outfield prospect while James doesn’t profile as a middle order hitter.

    As for Mitchell, he repeated a league and posted a batting average about 30 points better than his established career mark. No improvement in power, not a tremendous jump in walk rate. (33rd in OBP isn’t a tremendous achievement when only 56 players qualify.) And I don’t think that he played infield two years ago is a plus any more than saying Jiwan James could pitch. I think Mitchell is just as likely to drop 20 points from his batting average and find himself out of the organization.

    I probably spend too much time on it. Mitchell just seems like such an off the wall pick to garner any type of support.

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  31. Must be fan club members. : )

    I think DM is out of the organization next year. He’s 24 and unlikely to be a full-timer. Hope I’m wrong.

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  32. Went Julio because I could no longer ignore his periphials. I actually believe he should be ahead of Worley. I would bump him out of the top 10 and move everyone else up 1 spot if I were czar. Will probably go Santana, James then Altherr next. Need to see a full season from Altherr before I can put him ahead.

    Would like to see Ramirez on the ballot soon. I think he is ahead of Aumont at this stage. Lots of noise for the RIZZ right now but as someone had stated earlier he’s a guy without a position so unless he can rake with power I can’t see him as a top 20 prospect.

    For me a guy who’s ceiling at best puts him on the bench of a big league roster is not worthy of top 20 status.

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  33. Sorry Alan – didn’t look up the stats. I didn’t make up the comparison between James and Brown…I’ve seen it a couple times now and to me it makes no sense either, but I think their batting stance is similar and to some, that’s enough to “remind them” of Brown.

    Can anyone who’s seen Rizzotti play first consistently tell us just how bad he is? Compared to say, the earliest work of Ryan Howard? And does no one believe he can ever improve? He’s not going to play SS, but people have been known to work on their games and improve. If he hits for power and doesn’t make a fool of himself in the field, his ceiling is probably a starting 1B for 5 years and a DH thereafter. Maybe a lesser Adam Dunn type. And remember I said lesser before you slam me for comparing him to a perennial HR machine.

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  34. That’s the thing about projectability though, it relies on imagination, not relevant statistics. I’d rather reward proximity provided the player is considered to be some level of impact at the MLB level. The same argument that can be made for Rizz has already been made for Worley and De Fratus. It’s a long way just to be able to make it from rookie ball to a MLB roster, nevermind being impactful.

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  35. There’s a difference between a 24 year old AAA and 24 year old AA player when talking about proximity to the majors. I can see making the proximity argument when you have a player like Scott Sizemore last season, a good AAA player with an obviously open job in front of him (and even then, he failed to seize it). A 24 year old AA slugger is no sure thing to ever succeed in the majors.

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  37. When will we see Cesar as a voting option? He certainly has shown more than, say, Aumont, and is, at least, a middle infielder. Really: speed, defense, OBP (a lot of which is actual BA). Get him on the vote list.

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  38. No doubt. And this is all assuming that Rizz stays hot at the onstart, after all, we’re not arguing that he should be Top 5 or even Top 15. He should be coming soon though in my opinion. He’ll play at age 25 all season at LHV, absolutely raked at two levels last season and went on to hit .333 inthe AFL. 81 walks to boot. He’s a solid season away from being a legitimate prospect perhaps destined for another team, but no doubt a prospect.

    Mooy agrument perhaps. This is a fun organization to watch right now. Nothing mind-blowing outside of Brown, but a deep bunch after. Should make for a fun season

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  39. I’ve seen RIZZ play a few games at 1B in Trenton he’s not horrendous. You mention Adam Dunn and I would say he’s not as bad as Dunn is at 1B. There’s an old adage in baseball which is if you can hit they’ll find a spot for you in the line-up.

    Now I haven’t seen RIZZ play the OF and not sure he can but he reminded me when he was healthly of Jason Kuble of the Twins. All indications are he can be an above average hitter. Figure out where he can play in the field and if he can hit with an above average OPS and you have a nice trade chip in your hands.

    He doesn’t run very well so he’ll have to demonstrate he can put the ball out of the park and in the gaps. I like the kid I’m just wondering how many of the 5 tools does he have.

    For me my top 10 is guys that can be impact players on a MLB roster and 11-20 guys that can play everyday on a MLB roster.

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  41. I agree with Catch that Santana, James, Rodriguez and Altherr are pretty interchangeable for me. I’m sorry to see so many people talk down James. He had a league average performance in his first full year as a hitter, and he has a lot of “best tools” rankings from BA. If you want to talk about projectability, he’s your man.

    I would have Worley a spot higher. He’s going to provide value at the MLB level. Meanwhile, I’d be pleasantly surprised if more than one of Cosart, Colvin, May, and Biddle provide value at the MLB level. They all definitely have higher ceilings than Worley and you could probably get more for them in a trade today than for Worley. However, the present value of Worley to the Phils is much greater.

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  42. Been voting for Santana. Think he easily has the highest ceiling, gets the benefit of the doubt due to his age, and his ability to draw walks puts him ahead of many other guys and goes a ways towards stifling his strikeout problem. Hopefully that’ll improve soon enough

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  43. Keep hearing about Santana’s ability to draw walks as a reason to rank him highly but with his massive strikeout rate it begs the question, Does he really have a good eye or is he just overly passive?

    I don’t know the answer to this question since I haven’t seen him play and haven’t seen any numbers showing his swing %, called strike %, etc. Any player who just takes a bunch of pitches in short season leagues will no doubt also draw a number of walks.

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  44. dont get Rizz.. he didnt do that much at AAA or winter ball.. has no power.. and is an average 1b at best.. he should be on the list. but in the 20s..

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  46. Also very disappointed to see people talk down on James, but can attribute that to people who only know the numbers and not the game. I pointed out in a previous post that James, essentially playing his first full season, tired down the stretch when the season took its toll on his body. Therefore his final .270 average is a bit misleading. Talk to the managers, coaches and scouts who watched him play everyday and they’ll tell you about his projectability. For two months in the middle of the season he stood out as a top 3 prospect in the league, hitting .336 with 12 doubles, 4 triples, and 22 RBI. His defense was the best among SAL outfielders. That’s not to say he is a can’t-miss guy, but his projectability as a prospect is pretty impressive.

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  47. @Dave – Rizz showed considerable HR power in AA last year. Many have cited wrist injuries as the reason for his slow start at AAA, and that may be all or part of the reason for it. AFL is harder to explain, unless he’s just trying to get his stroke back still from the injury, which is possible. Also, AFL is a fairly small sample, especially for a hitter. His stroke was there, we’ll have to see it the power he showed in an extended period at AA returns.

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  48. Voting for Santana again. I can’t believe he’s outside the top 10. After Santana, I have James, Pettibone, JRod, and Altherr.

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  49. To be clear – I like James also – and likely would have voted for him at 11 or 12, after deciding between him and Rodriguez, which I have yet to force myself to do, since I like Santana more than either. Just saying he’s not Brown which I think some people have decided he should be. He seems to be much more comparable to Gillies, who I happen to like a fair bit better.

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  50. And thanks DMar for some incite on Rizz in the field. A little better than Dunn in the field should start to make up for being not as good at the plate. We’ll see how much power comes back around as he progresses in AAA. Maybe enough to make him a serious trade chip.

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  51. Santana does not have a great eye—-at Williamsport it appeared that he would swing at crap. Sometimes they would just be ridiculous and expect him to swing at pitches a foot off the plate. He has a long,long way to go. Very long swing but when he connects he does mash it.

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  53. Just a note on “proximity” in the context of rating prospects high on the list. Agree with those who mention it here that it should be a part of the formula for rating prospects. But what the heck are we talking about when we use the term?

    Here’s my working definition:

    Proximity:

    1) Proven health over multiple seasons–durable enough to compete at a high level. We would not be talking about a prospect’s proximity if he had a career threatening injury or a more mundane injury requiring longer healing time. Those conditions put the player further away from any MLB role.

    2) Skill set. Players who reach the high minors who are projected to play a significant role in MLB must by category have superior skills. You don’t discuss AA/AAA players as prospects without exceptional skills, anywhere from 1 skill (awesome hitting) to 5 skills (all-around developed skills).

    3) Performance over multiple seasons. Players at AA/AAA discussed as high draft choices ought to be, again by category, guys who have performed at every level, even improved as they climbed the ladder. Improvement or sustained performance as players are promoted is one of the top indicators of MLB performance. Right after exceptional performance.

    4) Fast track. Most guys who reach AA/AAA with top talent and good performance have been advanced without delay, and many are advanced aggressively.

    5)Projection realized. Most guys considered as top prospects had some level of projection/potential. Reaching the high minors realizes much of that potential and removes much of the risk in guessing whether the player will reach the majors.

    6) Present value. To me this is the last and not necessarily the most important factor. MLB teams have a real current need for replacement, emergency fill-in, and role players (DH for example). Only those at AA/AAA typically get this opportunity.

    That sums it up. I have seen some comments that assume proximity stands only for present value. I think it means WAAAAY more than that.

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  55. Santana. I read BA’s writeup of him and I seem to remember a comparison was made to Vlad Guerrero. It was probably a kiss of death comp but I liked it.

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  56. Agree that proximity is merely a component of ranking prospects, at least for me. Age appropriateness is a component of proximity, or at least relevant proximity. It sometimes seems as though proximity is often overshadowed by high-projection type players who’ve accomplished little even at the lower levels. Then again, that’s what makes these discussions interesting

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  57. Only saw James play one game, but he strikes out a lot for a guy with little power and 33 stolen bases looks good until you see 20 caught stealing.

    In the same game I saw Julio Rodriguez and I was probably the first to report on this site that he hit 93 or 94 (he did not start that game); others have subsequently confirmed this. His overall record is excellent.

    Initially, I thought that it was between JRod and Hyatt, but I was put off by the large dropoff in Hyatt’s stats between Clearwater and Reading. Admittedly, a small sample at Reading (22 innings) but an ERA just under 5 does not impress. In the end I voted for JRod.

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  58. Not a new observation, I know, but still under appreciated: proximity matters much more for pitchers, because of the risk of injury. Singleton is 80% going to be a major leaguer, 60% a starter, and 40% a star. Our low A pitchers are more like 50/40/30, at best, because of the risk of injuries.

    Santana for 11. Though IMO, it’s here, not 7 or 8, as some others stated, where the real drop off begins. 1-10 are all guys who, absent injury, should have SOME role on a major league team. Not sure you can say that for sure about any of the remaining guys, except maybe Rodriguez – but I’m ranking Santana higher because of paragraph one.

    I also think it’s about time to start thinking of Aumont – a guy who is maybe more likely than anyone left to have SOME sort of major league career. I didn’t pick him because I think he is going to be a reliever.

    It’s also time to at least add Ramirez to the list.

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  59. The same proximity arguments that are being made against James and Altherr, are the same that were made in the fan poll 2 yeas ago against Dominic Brown. Remember the PP fans voted Lou Marson(#2) and Jason Donald(#3) as much better prospects than Brown(#7), but Baseball America had it right and voted Brown #1. Somehow the Baseball America list gets criticized for favoring tools, but in general is much more accurate than the PP fan poll.

    The fans aren’t scouts, so we just take a cursory glance at statistics to determine who is good. It is a very shortsighted way of ranking the players. Major Leaguers are the cream of the crop. The cream of the crop prospects tend to have cream of the crop tools.
    The infatuation on PP with guys who’s collective ceiling are “middle relievers, utility infielders and 2nd tier DHs” is very confusing to me.

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  60. mike77,

    I think you are conflating a couple of issues.

    On proximity, I’m inclined to agree with you regarding hitters but not pitchers, for reasons previously stated.

    On “middle relievers, utility infielders and 2nd tier DHs”, I also agree with you, except that I don’t think that it has anything to do with proximity – it’s more an unsophisticated understanding of statistics.

    And with regard to this poll, the only low ceiling guys in the top 10 are Worley and DeFratus. I would say that, to the extent that you are referring to those guys, their ceilings are a bit higher than you acknowledge (4-5 starter and maybe set up man or even closer). And in Worley’s case, the proximity issue has real weight.

    Finally, I’m not sure that Marson and Donald deserve to be lumped together. The Donald facination always was a bit odd, but I think people reasonably saw Marson as a guy who had a ceiling of a good defensive catcher who could hit .300 with some BB and maybe develop some mid range power as he got older. Obviously he hasn’t reached that peak and almost certainly won’t, but I don’t think it was clear a year or two ago that he wouldn’t, and if he HAD reached that peak, that’s a pretty valuable package. Wheareas Donald was always going to be a bench guy (or borderline regular), and the only people who didn’t see that were misinterpreting the evidence.

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  61. And as for James and Altherr, I wouldn’t say that the proximity issues are the main or best argument against them. They haven’t shown much more than tools at this point. When Brown was ranked as the #1 prospect for the Phillies, he had already had a breakout season. (Granted, not to the extent that he would in 2009-2010, but Brown 2008 was MUCH better than James/Altherr 2010).

    Also, in fairness one should note that that same (2009) BB America ranking had Marson/Donald at 3/4, comparable to the PP fan rankings.

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  62. Santana. I know that it’s an article of faith among many statheads that there is nothing to be gained from listening to the subjective opinion of scouts, but that said, it seems clear that baseball men who have actually seen the guy play (and I haven’t) think there is a lot more to him than last year’s .663 OPS. In retrospect, you have to wonder if the Phillies set him back a bit by jumping him up to Lakewood so young–it’s hard to imagine that there wasn’t a little hangover when he ended up back in Williamsport, facing pitchers that in some cases were still far above his age/development level.

    On the Derek Mitchell debate–I commend his fans for their boundless, if possibly groundless, optimism. That’s what’s fun about speculating about the “Phuture”.

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  63. Mitchell, really????

    I also don’t get the plate discipline of Santana myth. A 46% K rate, doesn’t suggest plate discipline to me. He’s been young for his level, but to me Plate Discipline is his hugest red flag, not some kind of positive. If he gets the K’s down around 20%, he’s a top 5 prospect. I have no question about that, but he has a whole lot of work to do to get to that point.

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  64. To me, present value is the sum of expected future WAR discounted by the likelihood of that player achieving it. The expected future WAR represents my estimation of their tools, track record, what regard their organization holds them in, etc. The likelihood of the player achieving it takes into account health, proximity to the majors, development, etc.

    For example, I think Cosart’s expected future WAR is something like 50 (pitchers with a 50 WAR or thereabouts since 1980 = Dave Steib, Kenny Rogers, Jimmy Key, Orel Hersheiser, Jamie Moyer, Mark Langston, Frank Viola, Jack Morris – almost all considered an ace at one time or another). However, the probability he achieves that is low since he’s just finished low-A and has had some injury issues. Let’s use LarryM’s probabilites (though I would use lower numbers). 50 * 0.3 = 15.

    I think Worley is a 15 WAR pitcher for a career (pitchers with a 15 WAR or thereabouts since 1980 = Cal Eldred, Mark Clark, Russ Ortiz, Kirk Rueter, Kris Benson, Rick Helling, Tim Leary, Bob Forsch, Brett Tomko). Given he has already pitched in the majors, he has a higher probability than Cosart. I’m going with a 70% probability. 15 * 0.7 = 10.5. So Cosart is more valuable than Worley using these assumptions.

    That’s how I think about it. You can argue over future expected WAR, you can argue over probabilities, but that is my general approach.

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  65. Santana for me again. Age and secondary skills are the main reasons I like him over James. James needs to walk more or add power to really be a prospect in my book even if he has the requisite tools. Santana is underrated because of his low batting average but looks like a guy who could mature into a player that is a borderline star with a .250 batting average. Really excited to see him in Lakewood this year.

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  66. I looked back at my top 30 from a few years ago. I’m not even sure which year but the list is interesting. My top 6 were Carrasco, Marson, Donald, Drabek, Taylor and Brown. No one of this list has really made it yet but wasn’t it wonderful what these guys brought the Phils: Lee, Halladay and let’s throw Francisco in there. #7 is the Phil’s prospect that has gone the furthest. JA Happ is that person. I remember fighting for him to be up this high. I was arguing proximity. At the time, he certainly didn’t look any better than Worley except being left-handed. But I really felt he was going to make some noise in the bigs. I would argue that he was the best full-year pitcher the Phils had two years ago. Lee came over to become the ace but Happ was steady-eddie. He also helped bring in Oswalt.

    In two or three years, it will be fun to review the list and see the failures, the successes and what they brought to the big-club in trade. You can look at that list I provided above and say no one on there is a bust yet. Taylor had a bad year last year but I wouldn’t count him out. Donald will become a useful utility guy (heck, he can break up a no hitter/perfect game with the best of them – just a joke guys). Marson will make a little splash eventually. Drabek could become an ace. Carrasco has the stuff and I think the light bulb will go off for him soon enough.

    On the other side of this discussion, you have guys in the 10 – 20 slots. How about Collier @ #10 back then? Mayberry #12, Sampson was #15, Mattair was in the low 20s. the infamous Damarii Saunderson was right behind him (what were we thinking?) and — drum role please– Savery was #9. Oh wait, Hewitt was #18. Gose, Shreve and Cosart were tacked on in the final slots.

    Sometimes we get it right and sometimes we can’t throw a beach ball into the Gulf from a deep water oil rig. But it’s all in good fun. If Amaro came to the site and said, whatever you guys say will be how I handle the prospects, he’d have been happy with our top 7 (back then) but he’d have covered us with honey and buried us in a fire ant hill for the rest.

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  67. I took Pettibone again for reasons I won’t bother repeating. As for Rizz playing first, think back to Jim Thome playing first. Rizz looks and plays just like him, except for the back leg hitting and power. He’s probably a 4 but not a 5 in Strat-O-Matic for those of you that follow… As for James, he’s not consistent yet but, he makes some plays and has some at bats that makes you think you’re looking at a future star. It will be very interesting to see if he continues to improve this year or levels off. If he levels off, he’ll only be a 4A guy. Does anyone know what happened to Inch last year? How about Cespedes? Coming back? An interesting question after we’re done with the top 30 is who could be the big jump up guys this year? Eldmire? Collier? Musser, Walter, or Pointer? Shreve? A final thought: I’ve ranked my top 60 and I only have one SS (Galvis) and no 3B (unless Dugan moves there). That’s really bad….

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  68. Why worry about power numbers on James. Isn’t his first full year as a position player and he will be only 21 in the spring. Let’s see if he puts on 20 lbs of muscle and matures. Two years from now we can do a power check. He will be a regular in the bigs long before Gillies.

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  69. Murray, our system must be incredibly deep if Cody Overbeck , a third baseman who hit 24 HRs last year at two levels with decent BA (.276 overall) and a .354 OBP doesn’t even make it into your top 60!

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  70. I voted James and then immediately wished I had voted Rodriguez instead. Not a major bloop, I think they are really close in value.

    Someone asked why James got a pass on the age/level mismatch. Basically because he started as a pitcher and converted. Someone seems to be holding his 23rd round pick against him. He is one of a number of Phillies HS draftees who have not been taken in primo rounds but have gotten decent bonuses. That more than the round indicates how the team valued them as draftees.

    All these guys at this point and later are kind of chancy. There is definitely talent and ceiling or good performance and proximity, but we are past the point of guys who combine good ceiling with good probability.

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  71. The question I have about James is simply this: how much do we take into account the position change? Without that, we have a guy who looks like nothing special given age/level/performance. With that … and I agree it should be given SOME weight … who knows? It makes slotting him difficult. I don’t see him dropping much lower … maybe 14-15, though I haven’t put together a full list yet. But looking JUST at age/performance/level, he would be more like 25 (roughly).

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  72. I give James a pass on the age/level thing as well. He does not deserve a complete pass on the power, however. His scouting reports indicate a slap hitting approach. But his walk rate with that approach is also mediocre. He is still a very good prospect, but he has now hit for 2 years (and probably more if you add in instructional league), so he can’t get a complete pass. On his side he is hitting in a very pitching-oriented environment, so some of that might have been suppressed. I like him more than Gillies at this stage FWIW.

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  73. Think people are getting confused over James/Mitchell comparison made earlier. Jiwan James played 2010 in low-a at the age of 21 which is certainly age appropriate, especially considering he spent the first 2 years of his professional career as a pitcher. IF he makes it to Clearwater at some point in 2012 he would be right on track.

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  74. Cespedes was released a few weeks ago, after being suspended all of last year- ashame since he seemed to be one of our best pitching prospects in the DSL.

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  75. 3up I think james will be starting A+ this April he was in lakewood last year not NY Penn. He has an outside chance of being in LHV late 2012

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  77. Thanks alan I thought GCL was SS. Still not sure how he would only be in CW sometime in 2012. If this is true than he probably is no longer a prospect.

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  78. And I have seen some refer to Williamsport as NYP, as in New York Penn League, as in “Hernandez hit .325 in NYP”.

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  79. my mistake, I meant he would be move to Clearwater in 2011 not 2012. If all goes well, he should hit Reading in 2012…

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  80. I have to say since we’ve been doing these our track record is ok. Of our 08 Top 10 five are on a big league roster or at least spent significant time last year on a MLB team.

    From the 08 Top 20 only 4 are still in our system notables Brown and Bastardo.

    Our 08 1 and 2 were Carrasco and Cardenas respectively

    Notables from the top 10 in that class #5 Outman #7 Marson #9 Drabek and #10 Happ. I think its also interesting that the 08 Top 10 aside from Happy never started a game for us (Real Season Big Club)

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  81. Domingo Santana. Still dont see it with James…he’s intriguing but not a top prospect over a guy like Domingo.

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  83. Can Cesar Hernandez be put on the potential “high” candidates?

    IMO he could be seriously considered soon.

    ?

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  84. I believe Marson started last game of 08. Catchers often develop a little bit later—-way too soon to write him off although Santana will get the lion’s share of playing time in Cleveland. I still like Cardenas although he has slipped down Oaklands’s prospect list. Carrasco was quite good in September.
    I still think Stutes has the arm to surprise us. I saw him hitting 96 a couple times in the Phillies last exhibition played at the Bank last year. He actually has some nasty stuff.

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  85. If we consider last year as JJ’s rookie year(sorta) and a lot of players make drastic leaps their second year. hmmmm…. very interesting

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  86. It would be great to know if James has done a workout more suited to a fielder this winter. And of course how that has affected him. Sounds like an interview is needed.

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  87. Thanks, I obviously overlooked Overbeck on my lost. I actually have him at #28. I also have Franco, who I think is a 3B, around #60 but at that point its even more guessing than normal. Thanks for the update on Cespedes, that’s a shame. I saw him at ST last year so I know he was there and I later heard he was suspended but never read anything about it. He’s a big guy who throws hard but, doesn’t speak a word of english naturally.

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  90. By the way, the LV Ironpigs announced today that they are again hosting an exhibition game between themselves and the Reading Phillies on April 5th. Tickets are $6, go to charity and it’s a great chance to see two Phils’ farm clubs in one shot.

    http://tinyurl.com/2ap4uxo

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  91. mwwbfan, what appears to be holding Stutes back is his control-he walks more than 1 batter every two innings. Of course, Romero walks even more hitters and still has a job, apparently, but he is left handed.

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  92. Romero defines the limits of effective control. He gets away with it because of his low HR totals, groundball tendencies and relatively good HR rate. Romero needs great IF defense to survive, which the Phillies provide. But most pitchers couldn’t get away with that.

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  93. M. Franco is a 17 year old 3rd baseman who has shown power and patience. Cody Overbeck should be rated much lower than Franco. Overbeck will be a career minor leaguer.

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  94. That said, Stutes is the kind of pitcher who could put it all together and become an MLB contributor in an instant. You see those kind of relievers all the time. I don’t have Stutes in my top 30 and that’s purely an indication of how crowded the back end of that list is.

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  95. Re: Derrick Mitchell. I’m actually a fan and I think he could have a good year (power spike due to Reading and another year of experience). I wouldn’t characterize the optimism as completely groundless: he showed power, speed on the bases and good defense to go along with an okay BA & OBP. Age may not be that big a factor, considering he’s the type of prospect that takes awhile to pull it all together. At the same time, he’s not in my top 20.

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  96. Agreed on all the good feelings for Stutes. He’s the overlooked man. He could easily, easily, become another Chad Durbin and might even be better than that.

    I love when people write in to the internet blogs or the paper and contend that the Phillies’ biggest problem is their bullpen. That’s nonsense. With all the young arms coming up, there are many other things that concern me more than the bullpen (like, for example, consistently scoring runs or having a legitimate presence in rightfield – the list goes on and on).

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  97. The amazing amount of “man love” shown for Derrick Mitchell is interesting. If you look at the numbers, there really is a little more there than meets the eye, although he’s not a youngster anymore. But I suppose the adoration stems from people having actually spent some time watching this guy in person perform in a very impressive manner. Personal observations really do mean something; and they often mean a lot. Normally, Mitchell might be out of my top 50, but given that he appears to be very impressive in person, I’ll now consider him (but not necessarily vote for him) in the latter portions of the top 30 vote.

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  98. Of all the posts for D Mitchell, only one handle is familiar. Looks like one guy posting votes for him under different names.

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  99. Derrick Mitchell is basically org filler…he’s not a real prospect.

    He’s 23 going on 24. He repeated A+ ball last year and posted mediocre offensive stats as a utility OF. I mean, yeah, he did better last year than in 09…he also repeated a level.

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  101. For the record I only voted for Derrick once and have never used another name.

    I have been to several games over the last few years and base my assessment on what I’ve seen.
    For example many people on this site were in love with Anthony Gose. If you had seen him play you would have noticed he put forth no effort whatsoever. The corner outfielders actually covered more ground than he did. I think that matters. I am curious about the number of posters on this site who actually attend the games or is most of the prospecting just looking at stats and where a player is in the organization compared to their age? or where they were drafted? I am not accusing just curious. I think scouts actually go to games.
    What I do know;
    People who have seen Derrick play generally think very highly about his talent.
    The organization seems to like him because they have at least partially protected him from the Rule 5 draft by putting him on the Lehigh roster the past 2 years.
    This web site has predicted he would be cut at least 4 times the last 2 years and that isn’t counting the commenters.

    So maybe I’m rooting for the underdog here and you may not agree with me but I’m OK with that.
    Only time will tell.

    I also do not like talking bad about guys so I’m sorry Anthony. You have a ton of raw talent and I hope you learn that it will only take you so far.

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  103. I’m sure he’s a great guy and hard worker. I just dont think he’s the #11 prospect. Its not personal.

    I’m actually kinda surprised that we haven’t really seen any calls for Schwimer at this point. He’s fairly close to being MLB ready, great K/9 numbers and very solid peripherals at every level. 2 solid pitches, etc. He’ll be one of the first guys in line for a callup if they need a RH reliever this year. He’ll start the year in Lehigh where he should build on his solid 2nd half last year at that level. He’s a Top 15 guy for me I would think.

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  106. PS–Derrick Mitchell is a minor league free agent this winter. Did he resign with us?

    He has fans because he has a great athlete’s body and looks tremendous on a baseball field. Sort of like Billy Beane as a player. He made significant positive steps last year, so maybe he could continue to progress, but, unless he signed voluntarily with us again, it will be elsewhere.

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  107. wow philly chuck took the DM man love to another level LOL. “great body”, “looks great”…., billy bean referance.

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  110. Rusty, I never make it to minor league games. I never see any of these guys play. So pretty much I rely on stats, third party evaluations, and how the organization seems to rate the player (e.g. Galvis in AA this past year shows how highly they think of him). On each of those measures, Mitchell rates pretty low. The third party evaluations are where he scores best for athelticism and raw ability. I’d love to see him put it all together, and at times he did this past season, but synthesizing all the information available to me I do not see any reason to rate him highly in the org.

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  111. First off none of you know what the he’ll your talking about, fizz was nothing a year ago and now he”s a star, Freddy can”t hit his weight but but he’s a star, I got news for all of you Ive seen Mitchell play and he’s better than all them and it’s only a matter of time. You guys sure don’t know much about BASEBALL…….

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