2011 Reader Top 30, #10

2011 Reader Top 30

Today we round out the top 10, with Tyson Gillies narrowly edging out Justin De Fratus for the #9 spot. I expect the voting after #10 to get really interesting. Remember, if you want to write in someone, or you want someone else added to the poll, please type the word OTHER in all caps in the comments. When searching for names to add, I do a search for the word other, and then add the names listed. Its easy. Anyway, lets get to it.

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP
6. Sebastian Valle, C
7. Vance Worley, RHP
8. Jesse Biddle, LHP
9. Tyson Gillies, OF
10.

122 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #10”

  1. Voted for Santana. He beats James and Rodriguez with his power projections and his age. If he has another non-stellar season he’ll probably fall off pretty quickly in my book. Has to start cutting down on his Ks or he’ll get eaten alive by higher level pitching, like it seems he did in Lakewood.

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  2. Gotta go with JRod again, I’m telling you, we will be shocked that he was this low by mid-season. Sickels agrees with me! The velo is up!

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  5. Santana. BA influence perhaps; but power displayed at such a young age is the reason for his high ranking. He will be my top non-pitching prospect to follow next year.

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  6. Jiwan James.
    He is the age of a college draftee. If a college OF played at Lakewood and performed the way James did from the middle of June until the end of the season, he would easily be considered top 10. (.346 OBP after All-star break). Also a superior defender. Considering he missed a year and a half development time due to injury, his season should be considered successful.

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  10. I was really having a tough time deciding who to go with here, but I somewhat reluctantly voted for Jiwan James, even though he still has a lot left that he needs to prove. He made some progress the past season, but I want to see what he’ll do this coming year to further cement his status as a high ceiling prospect.

    But as risky as picking Jiwan James as the #10 prospect, I could not bring myself to vote for De Fratus instead. He’s a relief pitcher already in the Minor Leagues, and until he gets more innings against better competition, it’s very tough to see where he’ll ultimately end up.

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  14. Hard to choose between James and Rodriguez, but couldn’t realy go wrong with either. I went with James due to his very high tools rankings by BA. We’ll see if he can become Dom Brown or Greg Golson this year.

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  15. Why so much love for Justin De Fratus at #10? Seems like three’s 3-4 better choices. Im not knocking anybody’s choice but rather asking out of curiosity.

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  16. Aaron Altherr seems like the total package. He is projected highly; hits around .300, has the potential to develop good power numbers; firlds well; is definitely on the Phillies radar. If I learned anything from the great discussion on relief pitchers, it was to pay attention to the projected ceiling, no matter what the level. Altherr’s ceiling is very high. He has shown the ability to hit the ball well; the rest can develop.

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  20. Consider: the next several choices are looking more and more difficult to distinguish one from the other in potential.

    Altherr: multi-talented OFer whose skills at the plate. field, and base-running need refinement but is labeled as a Brown clone in possibilities with power yet to be seen but visual from this distance, and a righty hitter which is an endangered species in our system;
    Santana:OF; if he puts it altogether, WOW!…a spectacular righty power hitter with some speed, a fine arm and a long distance to go before all that happens, if at all: he will be age 19 this coming season with two seasons of pro ball under his old cap. If things DO come together, LOOK OUT!;
    James: OF, supposedly the best athlete of all in our system; switch hitter who does well hitting as a lefty, poor slap-bat while hitting righty. Pitcher career ended w arm issues, converted to OFer, now 21. Without much power promised, looks like a great center fielder who can sit atop a lineup and steal many bases with outrageous speed. Perhaps power could come, but his righty hitting needs more ooomph—>weight training;
    Cesar Hernandez:2b; heir-apparent to Mr. Utley in 3 yrs. Excellent defense, great base-path speed, high oba. Leadoff guy.If only we had an equivalent SS! (Villar, gone, sorry)…;
    J-Rod: RHP; surprised watchers while accumulating excellent numbers numbers at Lkwd, lo and behold—>we have another guy to add to those top 4 pitchers above at Clwtr; we won’t be fooled anymore, we’ll be watching him;
    Galvis: SS; defensive whiz who might be called upon in ’12 if J-Roll is not re-signed. A weak hitter whose experiment with switch-hitting has not yielded many good results.A severe, monitored weight training program needed to make him less than an automatic out and moving the outfielders more than 50 feet behind the infielders;
    Hyatt:RHP: 23 year old guy at Clrwtr struck everybody out relying on his great changeup and allowed few BBs and hits in the bargain. FB at 89-91, not enough w/o good movement unless a good slider can be added, and suggesting a second kind of fast ball movement. Should that all happen in spring training and beyond, he will become a viable candidate as a rotation fill-in sometime soon; also, long relief is a possibility. ’11 will show us at Reading and LV.

    I’m sure others will have the same tough time making their choices. With this group, nobody is a slam dunk,

    Of course all this follows DeFratus being chosen this time.

    Having fun??!!

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  21. Went with JRod. Watched him pitch last year at Lakewood and he looked real solid. Isn’t this just about the time of year when a bunch of minor leaguers get released?

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  22. I went with Alther, I see his tools as superior to James and has a higher ceiling than any of the pitchers left.

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  23. I went with De Fratus, but there were 4 or 5 other legitimate candidates. I’m trying to guess which of James, Altherr or Santana is going to be the superstar – my gut says Altherr, although Santana’s plate discipline bodes well for him too. As for James, I keep seeing his age and thinking that, if he’s going to turn it on, it needs to be very soon. J-Rod is impressive as well.

    As for the “love” for De Fratus. Come on, I’ve got him ranked around 10 – Sickels had him at 12. It’s not that much of a reach – you’re now in the interchangeable prospect zone.

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  24. James… one more time… or maybe two.

    I have 4 OF’ers in my top 10: Brown, James, Santana and Altherr. I also have Gillies at #11. But there are a lot of good choices here. I like DeFratus because of proximity and the fact the Phils are looking at saving money in the bullpen but he’s only #14 on my list. James, Santana and Altherr have potential written all over them. JRod is one of my favorites but I have him at #15. A big year from him will launch him into the top 10 and possibly put him in the top 5.

    A guy who won’t be in anyone’s top 30 this year, who could make a big splash, is Rosenberg. Rosy was in the top 20 last year and actually was in the running for a bullpen spot in Philly. He injured his arm and when he came back had a lot of trouble with control. I think by mid-year he’ll be back to his old self and again contending for bullpen spot.

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  25. Bellman: I’m looking at Rosey to come back too. That would be a nice bonus. He has a plus FB and an effective slider when healthy.

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  27. Santana. The De Fratus lovefest is getting a bit ridiculous. He’s a reliever…he simply doesnt rate that high as a result.

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  29. The more I think about it, the more I read, the more Julio Rodriguez becomes a slam dunk at this stage of the voting. He is a very young starting pitcher who put up an ERA of under 2 with great peripherals at 3 levels this season and winter season. How often does that happen with a 19-year old with 135 IP (90 excluding winter ball)? Statistically, J-Rod compares favorably to his competition in the organization, May, Cosart, Colvin, and Biddle. I like De Fratus, who compares favorably to his competition Schwimer, Mathieson, Herndon, Stutes, Rosenberg, Hyatt, and Zeid, mostly due to age, but at 23 does he really stand out?

    I’m starting to think the next prospect I will vote for (after J-Rod finally gets elected), will be Cesar Hernandez. Thanks Art D for bringing him up. Baseball America ranked him 9th, the highest of all of the Phillies prospects in the New York-Penn League top 20, ahead of Domingo Santana 12th, and Aaron Altherr 15th. I’m not sure why that publication flip-flopped and took those two ahead of Hernandez in their organizational top 10 rankings. Hernandez is already an excellent fielder, fast, and is a good hitting prospect. If he were a shortstop he’d certainly be talked about a lot, but as a second basemen his batting bar is much higher. Cesar Hernandez is the only player on the Phillies major league roster born in the 90’s, which carries a lot of weight with me.

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  30. Went DeFratus again. The love fest is easily explained. He has plus stuff in a need area. If you watched our bullpen last year in the playoffs its not a stretch at all, its not sexy I’ll give you that but he is a lot closer to contributing than any of these toolsy outfielders. I believe his ceiling can be some where between a 7th inning to set-up spot.

    The only issue I have with the top 10 thus far is Worley. I don’t see him ever being better than a #5 or long relief guy.

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  31. I know prospect trades dont happen often (though they do sometimes Michael Taylor for Wallace, Gose forWallace)…

    but.. assuming our pitching prosepcts do well this year.. any chance someone gets dealt for a high 3b or of prosepct?

    Obviously we have a wealth of pitching prospects (colvin, cosart, may, jrod, biddle)… and have some problems in the organization at 3b (polanco getting older and no 3b prospects coming anytime soon)

    Or.. deal Worley +/- kendrick +/- other prospect for a 3b prospect (assuming we are stuck with blanton)

    I agree it is hard to pick now. but this is where rankigns get fun.. went with Santana

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  33. voted for defratus. saw him close several games for reading last year and he was very impressive in person. believe he will close in the bigs, which i think is worth a lot. remember that sinking feeling you used to have when some of the pre lidge closers would come into the game? remenber the same feeling when lidge was having one of his “problem”periods? now tell me a good closer isn’t worth his weight in gold.

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  34. Cesar Hernandez is interesting, and he had a nice hitting season in NYP, but his stats show an obvious deficiency in the power areas. Does anyone have projections that show him flashing more power than what we see in the stats? I can’t imagine he’s a superior fielder or he’d be playing SS, though he may be good enough to consider plus at 2B. Maybe his arm is no good??? To me, a 2B playing with zero power in this day and age is never going to be a big league star unless he hits something like .350 and steals 70 bases, while some of the other position players not yet selected can project to be at least in the neighborhood of the offensive standards for their positions, like James, Santana and Altherr. Even Harold Garcia seems like he’s got the potential to develop into a middle of the pack HR guy at 2B, with still quite good speed on the bases. I don’t see hints of that power with Hernandez’ stats. Not saying Garcia is a better prospect, as he seems destined to be a utility AAAA kind of guy in my mind, or a fill-in if Hernandez is the real deal and the let Utley walk after his contract ends. Please help me out if I’m missing some scouting reports on Hernandez other than Chuck Lamar and the team liking him so much they protected him on the 40-man roster. Didn’t they have to do that with Galvis a couple years back also? That has yet to pan out either, though if Galvis was hitting over .300 like Hernandez projects, he’d probably be higher on the list.

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  35. De Fratus again. The third time is the charm! Sure he is a reliever, but:

    1. In modern baseball the closer and arguably the setup man as well are just as important as position players and pitch in a lot more games than starters.

    2. With the starters the Phillies have, the need is for relievers.

    3. Based on stuff, record and potential, De Fratus is our top reliever prospect.

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  36. Can someone link the scouting report that shows DeFratus hitting 98-99 please, can’t find it. a reliever who touches 96 out of the pen with a good slider sounds like Madson, except subsitute slider with change. How valuable would Madson had been if he wasn’t starting in the minors? The DeFratus love is now completely unfounded and officially out of control on a top prospect list. I say 13-14th for DeFratus is reasonable so 10 is not too far of a stretch, but i guess i am just missing the good argument from actual scouting reports on DeFratus.

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  38. Julio Rodriguez again, starting potential- think above Seattle guys , Hyatt (have seen that he throws around 94, not the always 89-90 claim , and some others, hold off on those position players for now.
    Galvis – placed on 40 a couple of years back- No, that was just this season. Somebody must have a thing that causes them to project recent events back into the past mentally. Somebody should know the proper term for that.
    Trade for a top 3rd base prospect? Somebody should make a list of the top of the line 3rd base prospects- there are very few. And don’t give me players that will switch to 1st or elsewhere before they are relied upon to field regularly at 3B in MLB. Teams that have one of the few likely have a need at 3B and are loathe to trade them, and as long as they are still prospects why trade something that is scarce for something or things that are plentiful.
    Cesar Hernandez- yeah maybe he has power potential just by looking at him, his picture on the website in the military type uniform day, thought it was A-Rod. Facial resemblance and looks like a muscled physique, though much smaller. In the few times seen in game seen no evidence of power though, seems like hit the ball where it is pitched type to get base hit type, maybe a Polanco type, so maybe they should let his hitting develop in that style.

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  40. I’m going with De Fratus here. Players with nothing more than projectability will likley dominate my next tier, meanwhile I’d prefer to credit those who have had success at multiple levels, let alone none. JRod and Hyatt also heavt considerations here. JRod in particular belongs in the top 10 (in my personal opinion) but I like De Fratus here for multiple reasons, including keeping Jiwan James out of our Top 10. Happy New Year all

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  43. I changed my vote from J DeF for this slot but will go back to him next.

    Even with a mid 90’s fb, he supposedly has terrific command which could make him a shut down reliever. A shut down guy is very valuable. Think of it this way, Lidge costs over 10 mm$. If you can slide Madson into that hole (and up his salary by 4mm$), a guy like J DeF doing 8th inning work over the life of a 3 year contract would probably save around $20mm. That is a tremendous financial advantage to the Phillies and could be the difference between having Cole Hamels here and not having him here.

    Don’t low rate what this guy could potentially mean to the Phillies phuture. Don’t say, he is “just a relief pitcher.” He could be a life saver.

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  44. I agree that it is tough placing a relief pitcher in the Top10 of a strong minor league system. DeFratus has produced excellently at every level and was just this past season converted to a reliever with great results including the AFL. I would still start him in Reading but if he is can become a closer or top setup guy that has almost as much value as a 4th starter (which is the absolute best I could see out of Worley).

    Yes the projection for all the single A-ball guys is possibly higher but they all have a very long way to go. I am not a big fan of James (just seems like Roberson flameout with the bat to me, but the flashes are there), Santana just too little contact, Altherr just too little information.

    However, I have been convinced that Rodriguez is the real deal and his numbers are just unbelievable. The scouting report now seems to validate his dominance and though he may not project as an ace I think he could be an excellent starter.

    For my rankings I still have DeFratus ahead of Rodriguez due to his higher level but for the official Top10 I would like to see Rodriguez there instead of DeFratus.

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  45. Baseball America printed a note in their magazine that DeFratus was throwing 98 mph.

    B in DC- 32 second basemen collected 300+ plate appearances in the majors last year. Of those two slugged over .500. Eight slugged over .450 and 14 slugged over .400. Only twelve second basemen even hit double digits in home runs. We’re spoiled by having Chase Utley for many years. But there are many second basemen in the majors right now who don’t hit for power.

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  47. Those who say DeFratus is not supportable at #10, or #9 where I also voted for him, need to ask themselves why they rate relievers so low. The Phillies don’t. They spent about $20 million on their pen last season. Also cost us prospects to bring those penners on board. If you replace half of that $20 mill with high performing, home-grown youngsters, you’ve saved enough $ to afford a very solid position player or #3/4 starting pitcher. The Phillies should not keep overpaying to acquire bullpenners from outside the system.
    There seems to be this thought that since most bullpenners in the past were converted starters that this is the only or most efficient way to groom them. This approach was partly a relic of a time when teams didn’t draft players to become relievers and partly the necessity of giving enough IP to build arm strength and develop at least a solid second pitch and get adequate pitch location ability with all pitches. DeFratus has already achieved all these things, so it would appear best to let him learn to be a successful reliever by successfully relieving. I certainly wouldn’t count the evidence that he has relieved very successfully as a black mark against his ability to successfully relieve at the major league level.

    I don’t get the point at all that Madson’s value would be less if he hadn’t been a minor league starter. It might actually be higher if he had spent his time in the upper minors closing rather than starting. He likely wouldn’t have his present mental block against the ninth inning.

    The other reason for DeFratus so high is that because of his stuff and performance, he stands out among our relief prospects. Schwimer is clearly a step down. The other reason is that the toolsy OF are long shots and none of the IF has really stepped forward in a way that shouts even ‘average major league starter’. I agree that guys like James and Santana (who I certainly rate in top 15), Altherr (who I rate in or near top 15), Hudson, Duggan have high ceilings. You can add Gillies into that group, although I rate him top 10. They are also long shots, for one reason or another, and in some cases for more than one reason. If we get one significantly above average major league starter and one near average starter out of that group, we will have done very well. They are quite far from the bigs, haven’t put up stats that are all that impressive and in some cases distinctly unimpressive, and still have holes in their game. We are waiting for them to learn to control the strike zone, or develop their power, or get healthy. A lot of them jumped onto the list more because they’re athletic, run fast, have a strong arm, and play good OF defense, rather than because they have shown they can hit. Hitting is the hardest part. It may be true that you can’t coach speed, but it certainly is easy to draft it, if you are willing to go with a very raw prospect.

    By comparison, DeFratus will likely be in the bigs some time this season.

    There are different ways of ranking guys on a list like this, but putting DeFratus this high is not irrational. I saw him pitch at Reading last season and was quite impressed.

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  48. Let me clarify the starter/reliever thing as far as prospects. The theory as far as I see it is simply that most MLB relievers began their careers as starters. The reason is simply that clubs who see real talent in their prospects will use them as starters, mainly to give them more innings and also a steady workload. As pitchers climb the ladder, organizations will evaluate them and change their roles to prepare them for the majors.

    I don’t see how this has become a controversy for DeFratus, since he started as a starter and was converted to the bullpen as the Phillies felt his stuff would play up better there. This is a common method of reliever development

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  49. I have nothing against relievers, and in fact i’d LOVE to see some of the Phillies prospects turn into good relievers in the Majors, my main issue is i’m still not sure how DeFratus will do against Major League competition yet, and i’m not entirely sure how well developed his pitching arsenal is. As I said earlier, I have DeFratus in my top 15 prospects… but I can’t vote him as a top 10 guy at this point in time based on what I know and don’t know about him.

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  50. @Marfis – I said a couple of years ago because it was in 2009. Today is the third day of 2011. I’m too technical, I guess, or you’re too picky…or both. Either way, if he does turn into a Polanco type contact hitter, that’s fine, and it seems he’s got really good speed, which is a plus. I guess as a 2B if he can hit 50ish XBH of whatever variety, that’s not terrible when you add in a whole mess (techincal term) of steals. Do we assume Lakewood for him or jumping to CLR?

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  51. @Alan – realized your point about MLB 2B when I went searching for stats. Steals aren’t terribly common, and so that adds to value as well. If he’s as fast as it seems he is, and can be a gap hitter, he could go 30-35 2B, 8-10 3b, maybe a couple homers, (he’s still very young and it is a hitters park in Philly). So in all, his total bases could be easily middle of the pack and if he can hit around .300 that’s a plus for the position. We’ll see how the man plays in a full season this year against a higher level of talent, which will go along way towards projecting him.

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  52. WFC2100, you said: “… my main issue is i’m still not sure how DeFratus will do against Major League competition yet, and i’m not entirely sure how well developed his pitching arsenal is.”

    This argument, or its equivalent for hitters, will, of necessity apply to just about every prospect, including Domonic Brown, Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Brody Colvin, etc.

    Why should De Fratus be held to a higher standard?

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  53. I voted for Santana. A lot of people had him in their Top 5 last year based on upside alone, and that upside still exists, even if it got challenged in Lakewood. He’s still very young and probably has the best chance of developing into a major league star of the guys left on the list. I think that kind of potential belongs somewhere in the top 10.

    As for the De Fratus debate, I think it’s absurd to downgrade a guy just because he’s a reliever, but I also think there’s a wide gulf between having “closer stuff” and being a closer. I’d like to see some combination of De Fratus, Bastardo and Mathieson in the Phillies bullpen next year, but it seems like Manuel and the front office tend to value journeyman experience over youthful potential.

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  54. i think projectiblity and proximatey are very important and i see it all over however i think you, have to factor results right along with those two factors…again thats why i went with julio…also when we are done i sugest to PP that we do a top 30 poster list…lol…i personally wouldnt be ranked as i am in the equilavent of extened spring training of posters!

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  55. I have DeFratus at 10 (but not voting him here because Worley was my #13), because of the AFL stats he showed. That’s a league with a lot of future big league hitters, (some who have even had the cup of coffee already) and real prospects. He dominated. Reliever or not, he’s shown he can get out real hitters. Whether he can get out MLB stars is yet to be seen, but as close as he is and as good as he’s been, I can’t say I’d expect him to falter when he arrives in Philly. The starter vs. reliever thing is real, and if he was a reliever in rookie ball and throughout his career, and we knew nothing about him, I’d probably wonder why anyone would rank him that high. But we know the team wants him in the pen and it’s worked out really well so far.

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  56. I was away last week so I’m catching up on my reading today. I’m surprised that there aren’t any comments about my choice for 9, Jon Pettibone. His stats from the middle of the year on are pretty outrageous plus wathcing him pitch makes you think he has a chance to be a major league starter. I have Pettibone at 9, and DeFratus at 10 (on the asumption that he can be a closer in the majors – if not, I’d drop him down), although J Rod, Altherr, Santana and James are all in the mix. Its a solid 9-15 group.

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  57. Murray, I think I posted a response. Basically, Pettibone finished dead last on the Blueclaws in K/9, 16th on the team in K/BB ratio, 18th in HR/9. The team defense for Lakewood was obviously fantastic in 2010. Pettibone didn’t miss many bats, so I wonder how much of his success was due to the guys behind him.

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  58. I have to break down his production over the whole year to 1st and 2nd halves. I do that because he changed something in how he pitched. He was very different when he came back after a mid season injury. He’s only 20 and seemed to figure it out. I wonder how much credit Parent should get for the way the staff (and Valle) improved over the course of the season. Catchers can be very good at teaching pitchers how to pitch mentally. Bumping him up to Reading after only 1 season was a big deal. As for Blanton, I don’t expect to have to eat any money with how desperate teams are for pitching. I would love a minor league SS or 3B back. I remember another reader previously pointed out that the Cubs had a top SS prospect (they already promoted their top prospect there last year) and the Cubs would love Blanton so who knows. They’d probably have to add another minor leaguer, like Matheson, to sweeten the deal.

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  60. KG posted an article today about minor leaguers who need a big 2011 to “get back in the broader scheme of their organization’s plans.” Aumont is on the list. KG says the potential is still there but he went backwards in 2010 and his future role is in limbo. He puts JC Ramirez and Gillies in the same boat.

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  61. @Boston Phan: I think the pressure is totally off of those 3 now that we re-signed Lee. Not to mention who better to mentor both the pitchers than Halladay and Lee both of which were demoted before finding themselves where they are today.

    I expect both to be more relaxed coming into this season and who knows this time next year we might be talking about them in our top 10. Its certainly not a question of their stuff.

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  62. Most interesting comment: ‘DeFratus ranks higher because reliever is a position of need on this particular Major League team.’

    Never realized a minor leaguer’s talent level increased or decreased based on the roster of the parent Major League team.

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  63. JROD

    He dominated at LWD and he is up to about 25 straight scoreless innings in Winter Ball.

    I can’t believe this is the first vote I’m giving him.
    I agree with the other poster that he is likely to fly up the board this year.

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  64. Phillies top 10 is kinda stacked. Until you start to layout the top 15 you don’t really notice how good we have it.

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  65. I wonder if the Phillies would take the David Price/Neftali Feliz route and eventually work guys like Cosart, May and Colvin in as bullpen guys before putting them into the rotation.

    Considering that 3/4 Aces should be here for 3+ years, there are few openings, and guys like Lidge and Madson are going to be coming off the books.

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  66. Read through every comment, looked at the stats and I’ve picked Julio Rodriquez ahead of De Fratus.

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  67. Allentown,

    The Phils generally carried seven relievers, correct? So that’s an average of a little under $3M per pitcher. Meanwhile, they’re going to spend roughly the total salary of their entire bullpen to each of two starters for the next few years. I realize that Halladay and Lee are extreme examples, but I think it illustrates the point that relief prospects just aren’t as valuable as starter prospects (assuming equal quality otherwise), and it’s not particularly close.

    Yes, every team needs relievers, and yes, if the Phillies can develop their own in the minors they will save money that they can use elsewhere. But the same is true, only more so, for starting pitchers and position players.

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  69. I think first and foremost talent leads the discussion hence Cosart and Singleton being voted 2 and 3. Cream rises to the top so to speak but after that we all have our own reasons to decide between the next crop of players and where they rank.

    Let’s face it casual Phillies fans which I will argue are the majority of the ballpark on any given night probably have no idea we have a minor league system. If you think I’m kidding the next time you are down there strike up a conversation with the person next to you and ask them who they like on the Blue Claws and leave it at that.

    Anyway my point is DeFratus gets a little extra ink here because he could be instant gratification for those of us who are “told you so” types. If we’re being honest that is why we are here. We’re like WWF fans we like to find a guys we can get excited about and hype him all the way to the Bigs (whilst telling our buddies “I told you he was going to be a stud”)

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  70. I’m confused about this “don’t rank a reliever in the top ten” mentality?? BA had Antonio Bastardo ranked in the Phillies “Top Ten” for 2010, which I assume was for his potential as a reliever?? That didn’t necessarily work out for Bastardo, but it certainly opens up the opportunity to rate other relievers (with closer potential) in the top ten, Right?? BA also has DeFratus as the pitcher with the “best control” in the Phillies minor league system for the last two years (2010, 2011). Doesn’t that qualify as a “tool”, in a sense?? I’m not sure a reliever, by the name of Rivera, would be as good as he is, with one pitch (a cutter), if he wasn’t able to put it where he wants it. Every hitter knows whats coming, right? Also Jamie Moyer didn’t last into his mid 40’s because he overpowers people. Are there not other top relievers that have been consistent closers, because of their control, and it’s not like Justin can’t throw in the mid 90’s?? Personally I liked Justin as #9 and will continue to vote for him until he’s added to the list. No love, just my gut feeling!

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  71. @DMar – You’re right that there’s probably a lot of that “told you so” business going on – otherwise our #7 would be a lot lower, IMO. I’m totally going to forget he’s gone and write him in at #19, just after Austin Hyatt.

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  72. rookie54, I’m not necessarily saying you can’t have a reliever in the top 10, just that relievers aren’t as valuable, generally speaking, as starters. And since the Phillies system has a lot of talent at the moment a relief prospect had better be really damn good to warrant ranking in the top 10. Which De Fratus arguably is, but he wouldn’t make my personal top 10.

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  76. I don’t understand the love for Reggie Taylor from you guys. Oops I mean J. James. L. Castro has close to the same underwelming stats as James and is the same age. The looks good in the uniform and plays good defense only goes so far. Alther and Santana both should be ranked higher.

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  78. Slabs,

    If you’re going to use the stats argument against James I wouldn’t follow that up by choosing a guy who hit .211 and struck-out almost 1/3 of the time as a better option.

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  79. Lol. Reggie Taylor. Hilarious. Another old fool, with an easy stereotype. Sure they look alike too.

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  81. James performed at the Sally League average at the plate. He didn’t excel, but he wasn’t a failure there either. He’s hardly a Hewitt/Hudson type toolsy prospect. He has baseball skills.

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  82. Having not completely Flopped in his two years as a hitter is not the most resounding endourcement for Jiwan James.

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  83. 3 up, Santana is 4 yrs younger and shows more potential. Look at his season in 09 as a 16 yr old. James may become something but he shouldn’t be a top ten prospect. 20 ish is more logical.

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  84. I’m just curious about when Colby Shreve becomes part of the discussion. Is he in the top 20?

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  85. I would think Shreve is in the 20-30 range to be honest. He came back healthy apparently but the results and velocity aren’t there.

    2011 will be a huge year for him as his second full year back from TJ surgery. He’s an intriguing sleeper at this point.

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  89. Slabs,

    I agree that Santana has great potential. My issue is with your use of Jame’s so-so numbers against him while ignoring them for Santana. Generally speaking, I don’t put much stock into the statistical performance of guys below AA. I’m more interested the skills they have that can translate to the ML level and signs that they are taking advantage of those tools.

    I have James ahead of Santana mainly because James showed progress last year while Santana appeared to have regressed a bit in his approach and I disagree that Santana shows more overall potential.

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  90. To be honest I’m not in love with santanta or James. I think alther is better than both. I’d give santanta a little higher ranking but both jj and ds are IMO high teens low twentys prospects. Reggie Taylor had comp stats to James when taylor played in the Sally. Taylors #’s were slightly lower but was two years younger also.

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  94. It’s really difficult to find comparable players to Jiwan James. 6’4″ CF’ers whose primary skills are speed and defense? You just don’t see that. Took a look at B-R’s Play Index though to see what I could come up with.

    Downside: Another toolsy flop
    Fair comp #1 (downside): Brian Hunter
    Fair comp #2 (upside): Drew Stubbs
    Upside: Garry Maddox

    Maddox of course was a gold glove center fielder who could run and occasionally gave you some punch in the lineup in his best years. Listed at 6’3″ and 175 lbs, Maddox was about the same body type as well. I think that’s reasonable.

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  95. Reggie Taylor- since I don’t remember that era well, the Wikipedia article says he made the MLB, and though I don’t like statistics, historical trends, historical references or probabilities. it could be pointed out that many of the players considered for this list and even most already placed on this list may never make MLB.
    RE: Goldstein reference to Aumont , Ramirez, Gillies, Seattle troika as all in same boat. Seen similar story on Beerleaguer. “Three Men in a Boat” or is it “Three Men in a Tub” I think there’s stories on that. If more interested, would look up how those stories end.
    Galvis- not trying to start an endless circular argument on minuteiea (sp?) but must have missed the added in’09 part, because just a recent article past the end of the regular season said that 5 players were added (implying they weren’t on there before) to the 40 man roster which were: Rizzotti, H.Garcia, DeFratus, C. Hernandez, and Galvis.

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  96. @Marfis – If that’s the case then I’m just wrong on the date. Could easily be. I’m wrong on stuff fairly regularly.

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  97. Ummm, think its well past time to put Matt Rizzotti on the list of candidates for Top 30! Well past…

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  98. @Alan. Is it fair to compare a ss with those #’s to a of? J roll was a 2nd rounder. Coming into the organization rollins was more thought of as a prospect. James was a 22 rd guy who wasn’t a huge signing bonus guy like a cosart was( a low rd guy who was paid a huge bonus). This is a huge year for James. If he improves or has a break out I think he should be moved up to top ten. Right now he’s one of these toolsy guys that has shown much. The phils have had more guys like this to flame out then to make it. I just can’t get excited about him until he shows more. Jeff Jackson, r Taylor, golson, d’arby myers, d. Mitchell, you can go on and on. Remember Jason werth. He was a toolsy guy, he was with his fourth orginization before he became productive. I think there’s a chance with James but a top ten guy? Not yet IMO.

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  99. Since someone brought up the name Reggie Taylor, I’d just like to point out that whatever the guy’s failings, Brian Cashman came within a whisker of trading Andy Pettite for him (along with Adam Eaton!) at the 1999 trading deadline. I often wonder how all those near-miss seasons of the early 2000s would have played out if that trade had gone through. A lesson about the value of can’t miss prospects, I guess.

    http://riveraveblues.com/2008/01/when-the-yankees-almost-traded-andy-pettitte-1983/

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  101. Andy clev Alex, I remember that petite to the phils rumor. I always heard Randy wolf would of been in the deal. I wonder if pp could ever interview ed Wade and ask him about all the trades that almost happened. That would be very interesting.

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  102. G I forgot all about Reggie and I never knew that trade was a possibility. See you learn something new every day here at phuture phils.

    So what is the verdict who is our #10?

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  103. De Fratus looks like a lock here. Next five will be interesting. Any love for Hyatt after a strong year at Clearwater? How high does he jump in mid-year polls with a strong 1st half at Reading? How bout Rizzotti if he bats .300 with some power numbers? Two guys not even considered for the Top 10 can be there by mid-year. Interesting debates remain. Julio likely my next selection.

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  104. I definitely think Rizzotti should be included.
    I think he is being ignored because
    #1 – He is blocked.
    #2 – People are ignoring the fact he hurt his wrist at AAA which sapped his power at the end of the year.

    He should be a very important chip later this year if he picks up where he left off last year.

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  105. Rizz actually stopped hitting his last week or two at Reading and then never hot after the promotion. Its tough to hit with a bad wrist if that was the problem. With Rizz’s limited skillset, he has to hit and hit with power to make the majors. If he hits again this year and shows that last year wasn’t a fluke, people will take notice. If he doesn’t hit this year, he will quickly fall into 4A status.

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  106. Agree with Murray on Rizz. If he blows up in April and May, he’ll be a nice trade chip. If he comes in fielding and throwing on point, and limits his errors in that same time, even better. “Not terrible” in the field with a .900 OPS is good enough for me.

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  108. Not only was Reggie Taylor nearly traded for Andy Pettite, but Roy Halladay was very nearly drafted instead of Taylor. Sometimes I wonder how Roy would have turned out if it were the Phillies who drafted him instead of Toronto. Could you imagine if we had drafted him and turned into a bust because the Phillies wouldn’t have known how to handle his struggles in 2000? Scary thought

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  109. Unfortunately, Rizz must hit with power to get to the majors. He has zero speed and a poor glove. 1B is not a place for single hitters with no glove. If Rizz hits again like last year, he’ll show it was no fluke and he’ll have value.

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  110. I still wish Rizz was able to play LF at least on the Pat Burrell passable level, so that way the Phillies could have somebody fairly promising in line to take over for Raul in 2012, or if he comes down with injuries in 2011.

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  111. My view is that if the Phillies had been any better in the early 2000s, we’d still have dopey Ed Wade as our general manager and would still be wondering if we could, finally, win a division crown (the World Series? LOL!). The Phillies being not so great in the early to mid 200s really allowed things to evolve so we could get to this point. The chances that Ed Wade could have produced a WS championship border on zero. I’ll say it again – zero!

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  112. I don’t think a Championship under Ed Wade would have been impossible, but it’d probably require a lot of dumb luck and everything breaking just right.

    Brian Sabean with the Giants isn’t a very good GM either, but he kept throwing things against the wall to see what sticked, and this past season it worked.

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  115. It looks like De Fratus has this one wrapped up by a rather large margin, but a few of the runner-up’s were fairly close to eachother, so it’ll be interesting to see how #11 turns out.

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  116. I went with James and want to provide a little additional defense of his final numbers. This was essentially his first full season as a position player and coaches, scouts and many of those who follow the team closely believe he fatigued and withered down the stretch while playing virtually every inning. He hit .336 in June and July in 53 games, and emerged as one of the elite prospects on the team and in the South Atlantic League. His final numbers (.270, 26 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 33 SB) took a big hit with a .220 average over his last 29 games – sure sign the dog days has caught up with him. Through it all, James saved some of the high-ceiling pitchers runs with exception play in center field. A strong weight program and some additional size should help James adjust to the length of the season and the summer heat. He is a toolsy player who has shown he can put the offensive side of the game together. A former pitcher, he also has a strong throwing arm from the outfield. His base stealing will improve as he learns to read pitchers and get a better lead and jump. He has definite upside and is a guy whose .270 final average is kind of misleading.

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  117. Jonathan Pettibone caught my eye in his two series clinching wins in the SAL playoffs. In 12 innings he struck out 14 and walked only two. When his pitches were put into play 18 of the 22 outs were by ground balls. Nothing better than a ground ball , strike out pitcher for CBP some day.

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  118. Interesting to me. I really thought that acouple of the kids would get a chance to make this team as relief pitchers, But they resign Romaro and now in talks with Durbin, interesting.Maybe I am wrong in think De Frautus is a legit prospect,

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  119. Wait a minute, where did you hear the Phillies were in talks with Durbin again?

    I really think it’d be a waste of money and a roster spot to bring him back, especially when Worley could fill that roll just as well, and probably a bit better too.

    Since it looks like the Phillies are at least going to be keeping Blanton for the first half of the season, that should make Worley available out of the pen to be the long-man, and he’s cheaper with greater upside than Durbin.

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  120. ****His final numbers (.270, 26 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 33 SB) took a big hit with a .220 average over his last 29 games – sure sign the dog days has caught up with him. ****

    Or just the result of a proper sample size…he was hot and then cold and that .270 avg is about where he’s at.

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  121. DeFratus is a legitimate prospect. The ridiculous notion that he is close to being a major league closer is what is wrong.

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  122. No one is saying he is a closer now, only a 6 or 7th inning guy who could develop into the role. But on mlb they say durbin wants to come back and the phillies made a offer.

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