2011 Reader Top 30, #5

2011 Reader Top 30

Brody Colvin takes the 4th spot in a romp. #5 figures to be a battle between Trevor May and Sebastian Valle. Let me know when I need to start adding more choices to the poll.

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5.

63 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #5”

  1. I went with Valle over May because I think Sebastian has more relative value in our system given the presence of Colvin and Cosart. Also, until Trevor May gets past A+ hitting he has to be downgraded for failing to do so earlier this year.

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  2. Trevor May is my #5. He responded excellently to his demotion last year and came back well. With the control he has gained, he should be able to handle High A ball. His ball is hard to hit and he has a tremendous upside. In the previous year he was comfortable with his wildness and how it helped him keep the hitters at bay. Last year he discovered the error in his thought process, especially when it kept him from succeeding at Clearwater. I am betting that he will exhibit the control he needs to succeed at this level in Clearwater. Valle is still growing and his upside is great also, but I’ll give it to May right now because he knows what he needs to do in the secure role as a starter. I think he’ll be with the Phillies in 2013 or 14.

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  3. Please supply more possible choices. Neither Aumont nor Biddle is in my top ten — Aumont because he has not shown that he can rise to the occasion and Biddle because of his lack of data.

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  7. Valle has been on a tear in winter ball, hitting now .296. He was down near .242 at one point. I guess in winter ball he’s facing competetion stiffer than what he faced in Lakewood. This guy is definitely coming. Also, old friend Wilson Valdez is hitting around .272 in winter ball.

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  8. Ask me a week ago and I would say May easily here but Valle putting up some good numbers in Winter League. May gets the slight nod.

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  9. Went with Valle over May, but I did not vote for him based on his relative value, as someone posted earlier. I think Valle brings more value than May
    The presence of Cosart and Colvin is meaningless when debating whether May is better than Valle. Just because a guy plays a position that is shallow in the organization, doesn’t mean he should get extra points. By that logic, Galvis and M. Franco should be top 10 prospects.

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  12. This might be a great place to spend some of the excess prospects.
    RUMORS
    ” If GM Dayton Moore wants to continue purging his roster of veterans, could closer Joakim Soria be the next to go?

    The old axiom says that bad teams don’t need a good closer, and the Royals are expected to be among the league’s worst clubs in 2011 while Soria is once again one of the game’s top closers. Compared to the multiyear contracts handed out to non-elite relievers this offseason, Soria’s $4MM salary for 2011 with club options for 2012 ($6MM), 2013 ($8MM), and 2014 ($8.75MM) is a bargain. Trade interest would be plentiful, and the Royals could expect several young players in return.”

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  13. 1. With the options listed, there’s no way May loses this. Please put up actual minor league talent instead for the next poll. The only people I’d consider voting for are Biddle and Valle (and Worley I wouldn’t even consider a minor leaguer this season.)

    2. Why is Aumont on the list? Am I the only one who considers him the worst of the three players we got in the trade? (Not bad, but just not as good as the other two.)

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  14. May is my #4 so he’s definitely #5. I have Valle #6 with Worley, James, Santana and Altherr rounding out my top 10. I had a hard time putting Aumont in my top 20. I think he’s looking more and more like a reliever. I hope I’m wrong.

    Numbers 11 – 20 are really tough. Harold Garcia and Cesar Hernandez have to slide in there somewhere. Gillies, Biddle (I’ve mentioned my prejudice for HS, short-season guys before), Julio Rodriguez, Ramirez, Shreve, DeFratus, Schwim, Rizzotti, the list goes on and on. Galvis was such a hard choice. With the starting pitching staff in Philly, Galvis could be playing in Philly this year… if some injuries occur. His glove would be far more important than a bat.

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  17. #7 is going to be very interesting. We’ve got May at #5 and likely Valle at #6. After that posters are advancing all sorts of good prospects such as Vance Worley, Tyson Gillies, Jiwan James, J.C. Ramirez, Jesse Biddle, Domingo Santana and Aaron Altherr. It’s hard enough determining who to put as the five choices let alone who actually wins.

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  18. Bellman
    Why worry ? That is where the need is. Maybe Aumont could reach closer in a couple years. It doesn’t look like Madsen is ever going to get there. Or use him in a trade for Soria, Threw in Blanton ,money and another prospect and let them worry.

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  19. Sorry that of cource was me
    Look Soria’s numbers less than 200 inning the last three years (its KC)
    only 13 BSV in 4 years ,0.99 whip.
    Would you trade Aumont, Blanton,money AND a top ten prospect??
    BTW he is not much older than some prospects.

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  20. I, too, have May, Valle and Worley as my 5, 6 and 7 picks with Biddle at 8 (I may have previously listed Biddle as 7 – oh, well). After that, there’s a whole bunch of guys who I have grouped together.

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  21. Nowheels, first off if you’re quoting something like that you should give a nod to the source. As far as Soria, he’s excellent. But I don’t think the Royals are looking for a guy like Joe Blanton at all. Soria is under contract for four seasons. The Royals would look for premium prospects in return. The way this team is currently constructed, I don’t think giving up top talent for a closer is a good use of resources.

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  22. The Phils can’t afford to trade for Soria. Too rich in prospects to trade for a 4 inning a week guy… we already have too much money sunk in Lidge, and Madson would be fine in this role if resigned after Lidge is gone.
    Valle over May. Why? If the talent level is close pick the catcher over the pitcher. Pitchers are inherrently risky and every team needs catching. If Valle hits like he should then he can also put in time in the outfield and give Chooch a break a couple of times per week.

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  23. Though the other guys have pluses I voted in Worley here because the other 2 have to work out some kinks for a couple of levels and there are some ifs involved in that process.
    KC- MLBTR (source for what is above , I believe, or providing a link to it) has them rumored to look at Kevin Millwood (as they say). So Blanton might interest them dependent upon the money assumed. Don’t see that they have 5 solid starters to play out the season. Some say they have the best prospects in the game , but they might use a top-of-the-line 2B prospect near ready, some promising up the middle depth, maybe corner OF depth, alternating C type, promising RHP’s. But nobody really says they will trade Soria. Contract too good, and has MLBTR stated he could convert to starter, as he has four pitches he throws with regularity.

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  24. I went with James here. High-ceiling guy with tools who showed last year at Lakewood that he is putting it all together, contrary to some of the other toolsy types. He fatigued down the stretch and his numbers suffered in the end, but all in all he’s a position player worth getting excited about his future.

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  25. The Phils can’t afford to trade for Soria. Too rich in prospects to trade for a 4 inning a week guy.
    Four innings with the Royals more here. I have seen enough of Lidge. Trade Lidge and money(save 4 mil to pay Soria). Soria matches up the BEST closers in the AL with a minor league team(ESPN as was above). Then there is next year.

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  28. Went May. List is falling right into place. Valle will win the next slot. I don’t think Worley excites anyone. Based on what I saw he’s a nice #5 or long relief guy. His stuff is nothing to get excited about.

    For me this list is about young guys that we might one day see on a big league all star team.

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  29. May an easy choice for me. We have Brown as an A+ and our A to A- guys were Singleton, Colvin, Cosart, May with very little separation between them, when you factor in age and health. Number 6 will be a step down to our B-level prospects, of whom I think Valle is the best, but a noticeable step down from our top 5.

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  30. I put Gillies here.
    He impressed last spring and had an outstanding year at A+ the year prior.
    He was all the rave prior to a lost year due to injury.
    I see no reason why he will not excel at AA this year and compete for Raul’s job in 2012.

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  31. Went with May here as the “wild”card of the three aces. Would love to see continued progression this year.

    The next on my list that is not an option above is Gillies. Would like to see him added.

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  32. Nothing about following minor league prospects excites me more than a top catching prospect who can hit. Strong-armed pitchers come and go all the time.
    No d’Arnaud, no Marson, so I’m banking on Valle.
    His improvement to date justifies his selection at # 5.

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  34. Drop Aumont, he’s not gonna garner enough support for at least 10 more slots. I’d like to see Santana, Gillies, James, Ramirez, and J-Rodriguez added.

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  35. Agree with others that Santana, Gillies and Jiwan James should be added.

    I have major reservations with all of them. Santana showed no improvement. Gillies missed all last year but looked good in Spring Training. I just think James needs more game awareness but this was his first full season. JC Ramirez seems like he will at best be a mid-rotation starter and none of his stats jump off the page.

    I still think Aumont could be a stud closer and is not that far different than May. I know relievers get severely downgraded on prospect lists but DeFratus would be another name to consider in the Top10. (I like Bastardo also if he still counts.)

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  36. I have May, a guy with tremendous upside potential, here before Valle. May’s stuff might be the best, with the most movement. His problem is controlling the movement and learning how to pitch. The article on him after he went back down to Lakewood actually showed me a guy who realized what he had to do and was learning it. The sky is the limit for him. As for the list, I’d like to add Pettibone, another guy who improved incredibly much in the 2nd half of the season last year. He was practically unhittable down the stretch. You can’t have too much pitching…

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  37. I voted for Worley. He figures to compete for the 5th starters spot or end up in the Phils bullpen this season.

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  38. I think the most interesting theme so far, and something that’s going to be fascinating to watch as this exercise plays out, is the divide in this group’s opinion over Gillies and Aumont. Did we (and the Phillies FO) vastly overvalue them last year, or are we undervaluing them now? Or is the truth someplace in between? I feel like one could argue that Aumont and May had similarly uneven trajectories last season, each ending the season down a level from where he began (although granted, and it’s a big caveat, May was dominant back at Lakewood which is why I still like him better). Taking the drug arrest wild card out of the equation, Gillies had a season marred by injury, but it’s not the sort of debilitating long-term injury that should cause a fundamental reassessment of his worth. So, I guess we need to ask ourselves, are we downgrading these two guys more heavily than we should because of the trade and the expectations that came along with it? I think maybe so, which is why–to jump the gun a bit–I think I’m probably going to vote for Gillies over Valle next round. To me, Gillies just seems like the more likely candidate to become a major league player.

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  39. Does anyone know where to find the winter Mexican league box scores and stats? I’ve been trying to find out what Valle is doing as it sounds much like a repeat of last year. Hopefully, this year, he’ll show more power during the season.

    I keep marveling at how deep this list is this year. Far, far deeper than at any time I can recall. I saw a list yesterday with Mike Stutes’ name on it. How often do we talk about him these days? The answer, of course, is almost never. But when you take a close look at Stutes and his pedigree, he’s the most likely guy to become the next Chad Durbin. Now, Durbin is no Roy Halladay, but he’s a very valuable player in his niche yet a guy who can soon replace him is barely on our radar screen. It’s impressive.

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  42. From the looks of those stats, Michael Martinez, Sebastian Valle and Julio Rodriguez are the only prospects getting real playing time in winter leagues. From the looks of their AB/Games ratios, Freddy Galvis and Harold Garcia are being used as utility infielders.

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  44. Andrew,

    I overvalued Gillies and Aumont last year because of who they were traded for and a felling that the Phil’s scouting staff were better at defining talent than I was. It didn’t help that Aumont underwent 2 transistions simultaenously. He was traded and moved to a starter role. Gillies had injuries and then the wild “drug episode”. The drug episode should be put behind but the injuries wiped out most of the year sowe could get a better read on him.

    So… I think I overvalued them last year and I’m going to be in “show me” mode this year. I know they have talent but will it shine forth? I’ll be in a Missouri state of mind until I see it come together.

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  45. I go Valle here, but I understand why most will go with May. I mean the guy did almost strike out 200 batters in just 130 innings.

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  46. I voted for Worley because he is far more likely to have value at the MLB level than Valle or May. I think Valle and May have more upside, but Worley has a higher NPV. The Phils might get more in return today in a trade centered around Valle or May than they would for Worley, but that’s not obviously true (as it is for Cosart or Colvin).

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  47. As an aside, I’m not sure why some of these polling sites haven’t come up with a dynamic poll with a drop down box. Scroll to your choice and click. You could then put as many choices as you want and not have to limit it.

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  48. I’m sure you could put more choices in the poll, but you don’t want to have 15 choices and then have some schlub winning because he picked up a plurality of votes. That’s how Jeter keeps winning Gold Gloves.

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  51. I no longer have D’Arby in my Top 30. Kelly Dugan in the Top 8? He hasn’t shown anywhere near enough to warrant that. I have him at 25 but that’s just me. He’s going to struggle to make the Lakewood roster in my opinion unless he can become a full time 3B which is a possibility actually.

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  54. I heard reports that Dugan is no longer switch hitting. That, along with a move to1b, would drop his value a great deal in my mind. I still see him making the Lakewood roster pretty easily though. Altherr, Alvarez and Eldemire probably get the outfield spots.

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  57. All this talk about Worley in the top 7 is a little odd, just look at it this way if you were a gm which player would you rather have worley or the top 6 prospects listed above? (unless your ed wade of course). I think you could make the argument for gillies, james, biddle, altherr, santana as having more value than him. went with valle mainly b/c of position and put up impressive numbers as well.

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  58. I went with May. He’s not perfect but those strikeout totals are eye catching. Valle, for all the skills he has, has to do something about that OBP. Not good last season, not good in his winter league.

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  59. I’m not sure why the talk about Worley is so shocking…
    He has performed at the MLB level.
    Most of the other “Hot to Trot” guys have not even done it at the High A Level yet, much less AA.

    Many players flame out as they progress.
    Sure their potential ceiling is higher, but there is less certainty.

    I’m mixing the two and giving a Vote to Gillies here, though I see the Vote for May.

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  62. It’s awfully frustrating when an article misses the point of Baseball America’s lineup projections. It does NOT take contract status or payroll into account. It simply guesses who will be the best players in 2014 solely among players in a team’s system. It’s not supposed to be a prediction.

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