Reader Top 30, #4

Truckin’ along. Jarred Cosart takes the #3 spot comfortably, so we move on to #4.

Also, I’ve just renewed the domain name for another year, and we’re now coming up on 4 years for the site. It still kind of blows my mind what we’ve become. I try to say it a lot, but again, thank you for continuing to come back every day, thanks to those of you who have contributed with content for the site, comments, and donations (really, a huge thanks for this) over the last few years. Its been a blast, and I’m constantly trying to think of ways to make this place better. Anyway, on to the voting.

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP

94 thoughts on “Reader Top 30, #4

  1. Not so fast…. I voted for May here. Statistically the only advantage I give Colvin over May is age. Colvin’s a year younger. these two pitched the same # of innings but May pitched more than half of his in A+. May gave up 30 less hits over his innings. Even in Clearwater May gave up only 53 hits in 70 innings. He had trouble with BBs in A+ but got himself back on track @ Lakewood. May had 182Ks including 90 @ CLW. Colvin has 120. Another, not so obvious, statistic is the difference between runs allowed and Earned Runs. Colvin had 73 RA and 52 ER. May had 63 RA and 60 ER. There are probably many interpretations of this stat but the one I choose to believe is that after an error May is able to eliminate the miscue. He can strike guys out. Colvin has to rely on other means and it doesn’t always work out well.

    I won’t deny Colvin finished strong but so did May. May had 88Ks in his last 10 games (59 innings). My last argument for May is I think he’s going to have a great year @ CLW and he’ll end up in Reading by August. We’ll be goo’ing and gaa’ing over him. There will be guys on this site calling for him to take over the 5th spot in the Philly rotation by September. Not me though. Let’s get him moving along. Onward and upward.

    I don’t fault anyone for picking Colvin over May. They are two very good choices. Aumont, on the other hand, isn’t even in my top 10. He’s older than both of them although not by much on May but I have a strong feeling that Aumont’s upside is Closer or possibly 8th inning guy.

  2. I liked the way May finished as well I think some people are going to remember those control issues in the first half of the year.

  3. I’m voting Tyson Gillies.
    I actually expect him to see time on the big club in 2011 and likely replacing Raul in 2012.

    He was brilliant the previous two years in the minors and had a great ST prior to going down for the year with injury.

    If the pitchers were at a more advanced level, I would vote for them.

  4. I went with May, but just a hair over Colvin.

    Bellman pretty much voiced my sentiments on May. I don’t think you can go wrong picking either pitcher. From the reports and the statistics, it seems to me that Colvin’s upside is something like a Matt Cain, whereas May’s upside is something like the pre-injury version of Jake Peavy. Either way, if both guys achieve their potential, we’ll have plent to talk about.

    I love Worley too, but, as good as he might be, his upside is not as high as these other guys and that’s what makes the other players more highly rated, even if they have farther to go to achieve that potential.

    Changing gears a little, I am still wondering how we can parlay Joe Blanton into something potentially useful. We all poke a little fun at Joe, but, truthfully, given the problems most teams have with pitching, he would be an asset to a solid hitting team, just as he was for the Phils in 2008. I am hoping we can trade him to get someone with promise but a wart or two who could turn things around in a new atmosphere. The type of player I am thinking of is an Alex Gordon or a Michael Taylor – these are just examples so you know what I mean. Let’s take a gamble on a young, high upside hitter who needs to be moved. We don’t need Joe anyway and most positions on the team are filled – let’s roll the dice a little, just like we did with Werth several years ago.

  5. i agree with anonymous that gilles will have a monster year. he was the best position player i saw in spring training. his poor results last year were due to a bad hamstring. if you have ever had a strained hamstring, it’s difficult to heal because as soon as it starts to feel better, you push it and hurt it again. gilles has a very high motor and he’s just the kind of athlete that would have trouble giving that type of injury time to heal properly. charlie said he even made shagging flies exciting. i see him replacing victorino in 2012/2013.

  6. Colvin for his consistency once he started to get going last year. May could end up being the better player in the long run, but for now, Colvin is a year younger and more polished, so I’m going with him.

  7. Colvin, since he got better throughout his first full season.
    May could not cut it and had to be demoted. Then he dominated guys he had already proven he could beat. I do not believe he is max’d out at A+ ball. Obviously, IF he gets his walks down and is still unhittable he will meet his upside.

  8. I went with May because of the strong finish. Hope he starts off the way last season ended. I think Gillies eventually replaces Vic in CF. Blanton just might start the season as the Phils #5 starter. GMs are saying Phils will need to eat salary. Why eat $4 million when he can pitch the 1st half and then traded at the deadline when he may have more value.

  9. Voted for Colvin, out of inertia more than anything else–I voted for him at #2–but I think the argument for Gillies sounds strong. I’d be ready to pencil him in at #5, I think.

  10. The arguments for May are very cogent and persuasive, but I went Colvin. He may not have the strikeout totals, but from what I’ve read he is much more polished and likely to achieve his ceiling.

  11. May. Same reasons as Bellman and Catch. Power pitcher with a chance to be a #2 vs. a guy who looks like a nice #3. Also May pitched in a higher league and was still overpowering hitters. Stuff was not his problem, walks were.

  12. I think i’d rather keep Blanton as the #5 honestly. Worly/KK can work the BP for a while. He started off terribly last year inflating his ERA. I think we’d get a better return for him if he pitches well to start the season and he’d be insurance against any injury to the Big 4. He has a fair salary and if the Phils give him away I’ll be pissed.

  13. I went with Colvin. His numbers after May 1 were pretty remarkable. I have May next (obviously) but rate him after Colvin due to his troubles in Clearwater. I’m pretty confident that Colvin and May will go 4-5…

  14. As far as trading Blanton, I think we should look at the Nats for guidance here. They just dealt Willingham, who I guess was the odd man out with Werth in, for two young players. One of them, Henry Rodriguez, has the makings of a future stud, as he can hit 101 mph on the gun. With him and Drew Storen, they could have a very strong back-end of the bullpen for years to come. The other guy they got seems pretty good too. Find a team that is starved for pitching, Phils, and get them to cough up some really good players.

  15. I think patience on Blanton is wise here. He is not overpriced.

    When Pavano gets $10M+ and some of the other pieces fall, the Brewers of the world who paid Jeff Suppan and Randy Wolf Blanton money in years past will come a calling.

    If the Phillies decide to unload him, I don’t think they’ll need to eat any salary, and there may actually be multiple teams looking to get him.

  16. Please take Aumont off your list

    4.48 ERA in Clearwater with a Whip of 1.60 …..7.43 ERA with a whip of 1.87 in Reading

    We can do better than that ….Why not list Hyatt ? Compare his numbers to Aumont and its a no brainer

  17. Besides #1, this is probably the easiest decision in the whole list.

    …but yeah i had colvin over cosart. colvin had momentum all year until some national media guy called him a #2 or #3 in a live chat. I don’t buy it- his stuff is excellent, despite average strikeout totals.

  18. Colvin was my #3, so he will be my #4. He is a natural starter and should be a good one. May is close. We will see if the control issue is solved.

  19. I agree that the Phils shouldn’t have to eat any of Blanton’s salary with such a shallow pool of pitching available. I think they’ll wait until options are fewer and the price will go up. I think the Alex Gordon/Michael Taylor type of player is reasonable and even likely since the Phillies don’t want to add anyone with salary. Before its over, there could be at least six teams bidding on him (As, Rangers, Yankees, Brewers, Orioles, Astros, etc.). Bringing back Taylor would be perfect symmetry for me. Taylor and a good reliever would be interesting.

  20. I agree that other teams will want Blanton and he is not overpriced. Last year the Cubs wanted Carlos Silva who was nearly historically bad the year before. The team is probably just waiting to drum up interest in Blanton. It wouldn’t surprise me if Blanton goes to ST with the Phils, but I expect that, by the start of the season, he’ll be wearing another uniform. It would be fabulous to have MT back – if he can play, he fits perfectly with this team. In any event, right now the Phils are probably just stoking the trade market waiting for the right deal to come along but there will surely be some suitors.

  21. If the Phils could get one or two midlevel prospects for Blanton I’d be extatic. I’d even sweeten the pot to get a decent SS or 3B prospect.

  22. Valle seems like he’s really becoming a player. Does anyone know – is he in LF resting his knees from the long season behind the plate, or is he not good enough behind the plate to handle the pitching in his league?

  23. I take a bag of donuts for fat joe . JUST take his salary dont care what we get back. maybe a mid level pitching prospect who projects as a bullpen guy and that would be great. One thing that gets me is all the talk about blanton contract, for a five hundred career pitcher his salary isnt that much out of line.

  24. There was an article on fangraphs comparing Blanton to Pavano. They are basically the same pitcher except Blanton’s SO/9 is getting better.

  25. If Blanton takes Reyes out for cheesesteaks ,we may lose two pitchers.

    Catch probably has the right idea. If Worley keeps up his 0-0, 0-1, 0-2 dominance surely Blanton is toast. KK seems an afterthought.

  26. A slight discount to Blanton’s late season work, September was “Phillies play the dead mackerals month”.

  27. Nowheels, you praise Worley and then discount Blanton because Blanton performed well in September against weak competition. Didn’t Worley also pitch almost all of his innings in September as well?

  28. Anyone else, besides me, think Vance Worley would be a solid 5th starter on the Phillies rotation this year? He is the only guy I’d want in there, unless we are ready to promote someone.

  29. I like Worley but I’m also wary that it might’ve been a bit of a fluke season. Worley’s peripherals overall in the minors weren’t tremendously dominating. I’m of the opinion that it wouldn’t hurt for Worley to solidify his gains in AAA this season.

  30. I hope people don’t think I’m selling Worley as the second coming of Roy Halladay or even as one of our very high ceiling prospects (he’s not in the zip code of our top 5 or 6 prospects – he’s at the middle to top of the next tier of 10 guys or so). He’s not that kind of player. What he is, is a nice, projectable player who could be somewhere between a no. 3 and 5 starter in a decent rotation but, most importantly, he’s an extremely cost-effective option right now as a number 5 starter. I also think that Kendrick’s stuff plays up much better in the bullpen. When I saw Kendrick out of the pen in 2009, he was throwing significantly harder. Kendrick and Herndon can compete for the long relief role and, if, for some reason, Kendrick improves significantly (not likely, but certainly possible), he could again compete for the 5th starter role.

  31. I’d love to see Worley get a shot as the #5 starter.

    Did K. Wood really leave $8.5 million on the table to head back to Chicago?

  32. I definitely think Worley can be our fifth starter. I don’t know if he’ll become an ace, but he can beat out Kendrick, sure.

  33. Either last year was a fluke for Worley and he could return to the mean or he matured and hit his stride and will make a solid #5 with a slight bit of upside. We won’t know until around May or June.

  34. “Didn’t Worley also pitch almost all of his innings in September as well?”

    Correct and October and while only a few innings and Blanton’s stats are for the year. On the all important 0-0 pitch Worley gave up no hits, Blanton a Paul Spoljaric like .421. On 0-1 a batter’s pitch because he probably will not walk and can not strike out, again Worley allowed no hits,Blanton .385. 0-8 no hits for Worley, Blanton a good .152.

  35. Some of these prospects hope to get to a “Joe Blanton” status. He has pitched 6+ years of 175 innings and has a lifetime career of 72-60. There will be a lot of guys on this top 30 list who won’t make that next jump to the bigs.

  36. Nowheels, those are nice numbers for Worley but we’re talking samples of 4-6 at bats for those splits. That’s a ridiculously small sample to draw a performance from. Would we judge a hitting prospect on a single MLB game?

  37. You may not of noticed the word “if “. And yes very small sample but an incredible one. No one expects this to continue but the ability to make the batter miss the first pitch is the most important single factor in a pitchers set. Probably the ability to get more than one or two pitches over the plate may be key. Hopefully the lightbulb just turned on for this guy.

    Blanton has always had great run support.

  38. An incredible one. So either he’s superhuman or its a flukish sample. I don’t know about you, but I’m betting the latter. Worley is a good prospect. But that he’s slam dunk 100% better than Blanton or even Kendrick right now is very much up in the air. People are getting too excited over 60 innings of high level performance in AAA and the Majors.

  39. Alan do you not understand the word if. Or people are getting unexcited at the thought of watching so so pitchers get millions.

  40. @ B in SC

    I thought that was interesting about Valle in LF. There’s been some talk in the past about moving him to 3b too. I’m not sure why they are playing him in LF – if they wanted to same his knees couldn’t they just DH him?

    I do remember reading some scouting reports over the summer that said he was looking good behind the plate. Since the scouts hate the Phillies, they may have been saying that to get our hopes up, only to dash them against the rocks later. Damn those scouts!

    – Jeff

  41. Wow. Taylor or Gordon for Blanton…people here are dreaming. The Phils have no leverage. Sure, they might get someone to take Blanton but I wouldn’t hold out hope for a Taylor or Gordon-type.

  42. Valle – has caught for virtually an entire season, since he played the full Mexican Pacific season last season, then the full minor league season, and back again for Mexican Pacific this season, with limited time off between. What, is he supposed to catch 365 days a year for people on here to still list him as a catcher?
    Blanton is an established MLB starting pitcher and Gordon and Taylor are now older and falling toward marginal after a season or two of suboptimal results . Sounds fair. It is also off that it is said Blanton will cost an acquiring team $10 million. Unless you believe that Blanton was only paid his base salary of $1 million last season, he received a signing bonus of $7 million, which was likely all paid up front (likely at the time of signing- and that’s why they call it a signing bonus) which puts his salary at around $8million a season for the next two seasons. $ 8 million a season is in line with averages paid to similar pitchers (like Jake Westbrook) this offseason. Seems like some believe that any players not meeting some sort of statistical purity will have to have their entire or near entire salary paid in order to give them away , or to even find a taker, I don’t think so.

  43. Valle – tearing it up in Winter league. He had two, two homerun games this week and has seven this Winter. Should be our catcher of the future after Chooch’s deal is done. I agree they are putting him in the outfield so he is not worn down with a full season behind the plate in the minors. From everything I have heard he is an above average fielder.

  44. Nowheels, Joe Blanton is basically Worley’ s cieling. Your obsession with “underdog” prospects with mediocre scouting reports borders on delusional.
    How is Jason Donald nowadays? Still a future all-star third basement to eclipse David Wright?

  45. Marfis,

    Good points. Blanton compares to Lohse who is making $11.75 in 2011. If the Phils are going to eat salary they need some return.

  46. I think both Gordon and Taylor are marginal prospects now, and I would have no interest in either.

    Blanton is a valuable asset. I’d let the market for him develop over the next few months, and I think the Phils should target an area of need like 3B or C.

    The Tigers have two highly regarded 3B. I would target a guy like Francisco Martinez, who is 20 and will play at AA in 2011. I don’t have a feel for trade values any more, but maybe Blanton and Gillies or Santana for Martinez would work. I don’t know the Tigers’ specific needs, but they did lose Bonderman and maybe Blanton could replace him.

    The Yanks definitely need pitching, and they have three or four good catching prospects. I might target Austin Romine, who is the Yanks’ No. 3 catching prospect. Romine will play at AAA in 2011, so he is a couple of years ahead of Valle.

    These are just two examples. My primary points are 1) that the Phils maximize the return for Blanton, who is a solid No. 3 for most teams (or a No. 4 for a team with a good pitching staff) and 2) that they focus on areas of need rather than the OF, pitching or 1B.

  47. Gotta like Valle here. What impressed this week were not only his long balls but his situational plate appearances . He worked a walk by fouling off a 3-2 pitch which set up the tieing run and he scored the winning run by going first to third on a single to left in the 9th inning of a game. And got to like his two sac. flys in games with runners at third and less than two outs. Can see the day with Valle in left, D. Brown in right and Chooch catching.

  48. Since Valle is being touted as the next Phils catcher, and since there are no other catchers in the system who seem likely to qualify as the next in line to Ruiz, I suggest that there is zero chance he will be playing any other position in the next two seasons…and then be ready to move on the the big club, just when Ruiz’ contract expires. Rupp, who played in his first pro season in ’10 is likely to move up behind Valle, since Rupp is showing power ahead of batting average and is himself coming along well defensively. But Valle is the catching “prize” to be given plenty of TLC on his way to the bigs.

    Valle seemingly cannot run very quickly which surely is another factor in his not playing OF. It is not hard to see that his time in the Mexican Winter Lg is aimed at refining his hitting AND making a few more dineros for the kitchen table. In April, he’ll be starting again to catch the FAB FOUR pitchers moving up to Clrwtr…and looks like all of them will be moving up the rungs together toward Philly.

  49. Art D:

    Reports I’ve seen say Valle is athletic, likely at least an average runner. He may not be Jayson Wderth (who also started as a catcher), but he could be a better outfielder than Ibanez or Gload.

  50. Parent, himself a major league catcher, spoke very highly of Valle’s growth behind the plate. I’m sure that’s where he’ll stay. The Mexico teams are trying to win, they don’t care about the players’ development. They don’t listen to input from teams as to where to play or not play guys. As for KK, after arbitration, his salary will be too high to be a long man in my opinion. I think he’ll start the year as the #5 with Worley either as the long man or more likely, in LHV as their #1. There is also the chance that they’ll trade him but trading Blanton and KK would leave them with no depth. Another lefty is now needed so that could be something they look to acquire in a trade rather than FA.

  51. The Phillies should have never offered Kendrick arbitration. An arbitrator will look at his numbers and over value him. With Worley coming on, I would have preferred they non-tender Kendrick and sign a couple guys to minor league deals.

  52. mike77, I wouldn’t sweat the arbitration hearing considering the Phillies NEVER let a player actually enter the process.

  53. Holy crap…. This is a little off topic, but I just saw on MLBTR that the Rays could potentially have 11 picks in the first 64 picks

    “Tampa is going to have to continue to operate this way to contend at the big league level given their financial situation, and there is plenty of more help on the way from their strong farm system. The Rays will also have a tremendous opportunity to replenish the pipeline in the 2011 draft because they are loading up on compensation picks this offseason.

    In addition to their own first round pick (32nd overall), the Rays also received Boston’s first rounder (24th overall) when Crawford headed north, and they also pocketed three supplemental first round picks for Crawford, Joaquin Benoit, and Randy Choate. That’s not it though. They can still receive six more compensation picks if Rafael Soriano (Type-A), Grant Balfour (A), Brad Hawpe (B), and Chad Qualls (B) all sign elsewhere. That’s 11 potential first or supplemental first round draft picks, the last of which can be no worse than 64th overall. “

  54. Remember when the Marlins picked 5 pitchers. That didn’t work out.
    But the Rays are smarter.

    Why don’t we go after Grienke as the fifth starter. : )

  55. Just went on the boards for Brewers (ESPN). Not all the fans happy. I guess they gave up a lot of young talent. Rumored were Cain OF and Escobar ss and two pitchers. The Brewers also getting Bettancourt.

    Is Greinke a player who will only play for small market teams? Could he ever cut it here or NY or Boston?

  56. It’s a lot of good talent but if you look at your players and determine that they’re not going to hit their potential, its a worthwhile trade to make. The Brewers have one crack at a pennant this season before they have to blow up the team. Their farm system right now isn’t strong enough to build a championship core.

  57. Now maybe there’s a team desperate for pitching because they missed out on Greinke with whom we can make a deal for Blanton. Although I think Garza is still on the block.

  58. Jeffries is no longer in the deal. Can unknown 4th is in instead. Safe to say Milwakee won’t want Blamton now.

  59. ***Does Antonio Bastardo still qualify as a prospect ?***

    No, he no longer has rookie status…he spent most of the 2010 season on the 25 man roster.

  60. There was a deal in place to send Greinke to the Nats, but he turned it down because he wanted to win. JDub might not be feeling too good about his decision anymore.

  61. I think the Nats have better long-term chances than the Brewers. The Brewers just traded away their farm and Fielder is gone after this year.

    the Nats are building something in DC.

  62. For those who think Vance Worley is a stretch in the top 5, let me remind you of the Reading Eagle’s Mike Drago’ poll of Phillies minor league media members at the end of August 2010, had him behind only Singleton and Cosart. This was _before_ his final 12 innings including 2 starts in Sep/Oct for the Phillies. He has to at least appear on this poll. I know I have not been alone voting for him since the #2 position. Nobody new has been added to the poll since #2. Why not?

  63. Worley is in the 5-10 range for me. Still way ahead of Aumont though, not sure if people are just trolling or what. He’s a stretch at #10 even.

  64. b So many times people argue there point with all kinds of stats. Could someone show stats to back up why aumont is even in the top thirty he hasnt proven anything> except he was a high draft choice.

  65. 8.53 K/9 last season. 8.8 K/9 career. He turns 22 next month. He played in AA Reading where the average player is three years older than him. I don’t think Aumont is a top 10 prospect. But its ridiculous to say he doesn’t belong in the top 30.

    Compare Aumont and Trevor May. Aumont is nine months older than Trevor May. Aumont pitched two innings more than May in Clearwater, so in terms of age and IP they’re not far apart. Aumont had a 4.48 ERA, May’s was 5.01. Now May went to Lakewood and shined while Aumont struggled in AA. If you put May in AA last year his performance would’ve suffered while Aumont would have dominated Lakewood. Both pitchers strike out many batters but struggle with command. So why does May merit high praise while Aumont is tarred and feathered? Because Trevor May had easier batters to face in the second half?

  66. Good perspective there, Alan.

    It’s good to see balanced views from our stalwart posters. Makes up for all the guys who either say someone stinks without any long-term perspective or the schoolboy outlook where any player who hits a few homers in AA will be a solid major leaguer. The guys who hold back when everyone is overexcited or the guys who wait patiently on talented players when people bail out of the bandwagon during a bad stretch–they are the solid foundation of this board. And you’re one of the good ones. Much appreciated.

    Doesn’t mean I don’t enjoy some of the barmy guys who go off the handle. They can be colorful and good foils and also can serve to point out lock-step thinking at times. As long as they argue in a civil way.

  67. Good post Alan. Unfortunately, the information you provided won’t get through to the boneheads that it was intended to reach. Too stubborn to learn anything.

  68. He’s tarred and feathered because he was traded for Lee….

    Hopefully, people forget about it and he’s allowed to develop.

    I still think he can be a good late innings bullpen guy.

    I think he’ll have a bounce back year

  69. Too me a big difference is how many hits Aumont allows. He’s allowed 10 hits per/9 in AA, 9.2 hits per/9 in A+ last year, and 10.7 hits per/9 in AA the year before. For his career across all leagues he’s at 8.7. Not only is Aumont wild out of the zone with so many walks/hbp’s, but he’s wild in the zone since guys are able to get so many hits off him.

    May’s troubles are strictly on his ability to get the ball over the plate, he isn’t getting hit. Since rookie ball his hits per 9 are 6.8, 7.1, & 6.9. Plus his k/9 is 11.6!

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