Discussion topic: Opening assignments?

I was thinking about this today. There will likely be some interesting 2011 assignments, some of which will certainly be determined by spring training performance. Here are the guys I’m thinking about now, but feel free to mention any others that you find intriguing.

Josh Zeid – AA maybe?
Cameron Rupp – A? A+?
Phillippe Aumont – AA?
Trevor May – A+?
Justin De Fratus – AAA?
JC Ramirez – AA?
Domingo Santana – SS? A?

Lets hear it.

59 thoughts on “Discussion topic: Opening assignments?

  1. Definately think Zeid deserves to pitch at Reading…will help Parent is there. I would like to see Aumont and Ramirez with him at AA along Sanchez and Hyatt as a possible rotation. Let Rupp start at Lakewood and get some at bats before deciding to move him up. Santana is still young..Williamsport. DeFratus starts at LHV and then gets called up 2nd half of yr to Phils

  2. I think the surest things on that list are May to A+ and De Fratus to AAA, if he does not make the Phils outright. He earned it and a decent spring will clinch it.

    Josh Zeid would logically skip to AA with a decent spring. He needs to get age appropriate and prove he can pitch to more experienced and talented hitters.

    The rest will write their own tickets, IMO. I would think Santana has to go back to A and suffer his growing pains there. Keeping him in SS might mess with his confidence. Could be wrong there.

    Rupp needs to play a lot, so with Valle at CLW, does he stay in A? Not sure what all the progressions and candidates are there for playing time in the two A leagues.

  3. Aumont stays at A+ to find himself as a starter. DeFratus maybe to Phillies, but probably to LHV with a call-up sometime in 2011. May to A+, but could go to AA because of glut of starters in A+. He needs to establish in A+ what he did not last year. Ramirez at AA. Rupp at A. It will be interesting to see how his power plays in the big field. Santana will stay at Williamsport until he earns A ball. He is still very young. Zeid to AA. His age and ability dictate it.

  4. I definitely see Aumont staying at A+
    He was not able to excel there last year.
    He need to establish lots of confidence there before moving up

  5. Aumont had an awful time at Reading and, though better, did not fare well in Clearwater. He cannot be promoted to Reading without first settling in at Clearwater. I also think that Anthony Hewitt will remain at Lakewood because of his poor average. If this continues for one or two more years, then perhaps he should hang up the cleats. I am still not going to give up on him, however.

  6. I think Aumont stays in Clearwater. Phillies have a lot riding on the deal they made and I don’t think they want to see him struggle in Reading. The front office is desperate to see one of the “Cliff Lee three” make an impact. That being said, I think Ramirez has a good year.

  7. I really think DeFratus has great chance to end up in the pen. I think Durbin goes to a team that gives him a chance to start. That opens the door for either Mathieson or DeFratus or both.

  8. Josh Zeid – Think he starts at AA
    Cameron Rupp – Is the full-time starter in Lakewood to begin the season
    Phillippe Aumont – Begins the season as a starter in Clearwater with early move to AA if he does well.
    Trevor May – Think is should start at Clearwater but might spent a month or two in Lakewood to begin the year do to number of starters looking for available slots.
    Justin De Fratus – Most likely AAA with outside shot at ML roster based on ST
    JC Ramirez – Ramirez starts at AA.
    Domingo Santana – Really thik Santana gets another change at Low-A ball to being the season. Don’t think they want to wait until June/July to get him live game at-bats.

  9. I expect the Phils to leave the Durbin spot open to a rookie reliever (Mathieson, De Fratus, Schwimer). An interesting situation would be what happens with Baez. I know he’s got a contract through 2011 but I really can’t see the Phils keeping him on the roster if he posts another ERA in the 6s. I don’t think it’s unrealistic to see 2 rookie relievers in the pen this year.

    As for the other prospects:
    Josh Zeid – AA (Age and production warrant AA)
    Cameron Rupp – A (Valle will be at A)
    Phillippe Aumont – A+ (They will be more conservative this year)
    Trevor May – A+ (Too dominant at A last year)
    Justin De Fratus – AAA (To start the season but expect to be in MLB soon)
    JC Ramirez – AA (Performed decently in limited time, no need to move anywhere)
    Domingo Santana – SS (Didn’t show enough at Williamsport, also still really young)

    Question about Savery. I know he’s going to be at Reading but is he going to exclusively play at 1B or will be be put in the OF periodically?

  10. Are people moving the whole Lakewood rotation up (Cosart, May, Colvin, Shreve, Pettibone)? Who stays behind?

  11. Josh Zeid – AA definitely. He was way overage at Lakewood, and the numbers he put up there merit a double jump.
    Cameron Rupp – A. Lakewood feels right. He can get a bump to Clearwater if he rakes for a few months.
    Phillippe Aumont – AA. It would be ridiculous to put him back in Clearwater, no? If he can’t get AA guys out then he moves to the bullpen.
    Trevor May – A+ for sure. He’s done everything asked of him at Lakewood. Let’s see if he can translate the improved control from repeating A-ball to high A ball in a pitcher’s park.
    Justin De Fratus – AAA. Only if he doesn’t make the team out of ST. He’s done what he needed to do at Reading.
    JC Ramirez – AA absolutely. I’d like to see him really light it up at Reading this year. He shouldn’t advance to AAA as a starter unless that happens. If he can’t strike guys up he should go to the pen as well.
    Domingo Santana – XST into May, then Lakewood (like Singleton this year). Let him get another crack at A-ball once the weather turns.

  12. I think Aumont and May start in Florida where it is warm.

    Lastings Milledge let go by the Pirates… better option for Phillies than some, canplay centerfield.

  13. I generally agree with the governator except I think the team should make Aumont go back to A+ and stay there and focus on getting everything right and getting a lot of repetition. It would not surprise me nor disappoint me if Aumont spent the entire season in A+ if it meant he was learning his craft properly and getting to the point where everything he does is fine-tuned and repeatable. Once he gets to that point, and I am confident he will, his career could take off like a rocket. It would not surprise me at all if he finished 2011 in A+ (although I think AA is more likely) and finished 2012 in the big leagues. I think Phillippe Aumont will one day be an outstanding pitcher just as I think Gillies is still going to be a superb centerfielder.

  14. I see I’m not logged in, this is Allentown

    I see Aumont and May starting in the warm weather of Clearwater with a move to Reading in June
    Rupp and Santana start at Lakewood
    Zeid and Ramirez at Reading
    DeFratus at Allentown

  15. Josh Zeid – AA
    Cameron Rupp – A
    Phillippe Aumont – A?
    Trevor May – A+?
    Justin De Fratus – MLB?
    JC Ramirez – AA?
    Domingo Santana – SS

  16. Messed up the first cut and past

    Josh Zeid – AA
    Cameron Rupp – A
    Phillippe Aumont – A+
    Trevor May – A+
    Justin De Fratus – MLB
    JC Ramirez – AA
    Domingo Santana – SS

  17. The key to the pitching assignments is the Clearwater staff. There are just too many pitchers that need/deserve starting assignments at that level. I believe Phillies should place their most important arms first then work through the lesser quality prospects.

    Josh Zeid – AA: He just will not fit in Clearwater. Worley and Stutes made this jump before so it would not be extraordinary.

    Cameron Rupp – A: Valle will be at A+, Rupp needs full season time and should be bumped to AA yet so he will be at Lakewood.

    Phillippe Aumont – A+: Important arm and needs to gain confidence at A+, will be disappointing if he does not graduate to AA by midseason at the least.

    Trevor May – A+: Repeat of A+ is needed. Proven he can dominate A and can strikeout A+ so confidence building to keep his control is absolutely necessary.

    Justin De Fratus – AA: Really surprised everyone has him at AAA or the majors. I think he might get the promotion during the year but with Mathieson, Schwimer, and Zagurski at AAA, I would have DeFratus close at AA to start the year. I really think it would be a rush to have him on the opening day roster, regardless of how well hit pitches in preseason. Until this past season he has moved slowly one level per season. Why change that now?

    JC Ramirez – AA: No reason to put him anywhere else. He barely deserved the promotion last year, still was not dominant but is still young. His second year on 40-man and in AA puts him a bit behind.

    Domingo Santana – A: He already started there this past season so it would be a demotion of sorts for him not to start there again with the expectation that his sticks this time. However, I agree that his development is really the determining factor, no reason to continue rushing him.

    Possible Opening Clearwater Rotation: Colvin, May, Aumont, Pettibone, Schreve

  18. So, assuming he’s healthy, people would start Cosart at Low-A and then move him to High-A when one of Aumont/May is ready to be promoted to AA?

  19. Other intruiging guys:
    Savery (I think A+ makes the most sense at 1B/OF/DH)
    Galvis (Repeating AA yet again seems like a waste, especially with Rollins in his last year. But usually AAA is for majors replacements and I think Galvis should only be a Sept callup)
    Dugan (I would assume A, but Lakewood will be crowded with OF’s: Santana, Altherr, Alvarez, Collier, Hewitt, … )

    I still like Chris Duffy as a possibility to A+ but he and Murray likely just promote to Lakewood. Not much intrigue there.

  20. I like the idea of moving the entire Lakewood corps of Cosart, Colvin, May, Shreve and Pettibone up to Clearwater. I do not want Aumont to interfere with the development of these five guys. Move Aumont up to Reading. If he still can’t cut it, move him to the ‘pen.

  21. Note: I believe that Zagurski was released and signed elsewhere.

    One guy who has slipped from consideration is Hyatt. IMO he might be the first real prospect starting pitcher to come up from the minors sometime in ’11.

    Unless he tanks, DeFratus should also be up sometime in ’11 if not at the beginning.

    Agree with most of the opinions here: Ramirez Reading along with Zeid; the Lakewood rotation of ’10 to Clrwtr: Aumont Clwtr, too.;Rupp to Lkwd;Santana to Lkwd, early ABs win the toss. Savery: hope he is picked up in the Rule 5 draft, he was a large mistake for a 1st round pick.

  22. What are Hyatt’s pitches/fb speed? He continues to do well, but doesn’t seem to get rated high.

  23. I don’t think I’ve read Jesus Sanchez’s name menitoned anywhere here. he’s the one guy we have left from the Abreu deal and he pitched very well in Clearwater. He was converted from the catching position. He seems to have earned a promotion to Reading.

  24. PJ: Some baseball guy recently rated righty Hyatt as an under-appreciated pitcher in their system.

    He has a FB in the low 90s plus a supposedly terrific change-up but his breaking pitches need more refinement according to this professionally paid pundit.

    He was chosen as the Florida State League’s best pitcher…but curiously was not listed by Baseball America in their top 20 prospects. ???

  25. I believe all the Lakewood guys (Cosart, Colvin, May, Pettibone, and Shreve) go to CLW. I think if May starts off well he then gets promoted to Rea. Julio Rodriguez starts the season in Lakewood and then will get the call up to CLW. The interesting names will be Matt Way and Nick Hernandez. Two lefties who have potential but got hurt. Age wise they should be in Reading. Do they start somewhere in the pen? Are they a starter? As you saw by MiLB all stars the Phils did not have many lefties as Brian Mazone was the #1 lefty (stat wise).

  26. It will be interesting to see the outfield in Lakewood. I believe Altherr, Alvarez, and Dugan are options. But then I hear Hewitt will be left behind. Then Collier might be there. Then you also have Eldemire and Santana. Obviously not all the names will be there. That is why I believe Santana does not start there.

  27. Starters (in no particular order)

    AAA: Worley (or MLB), Carpenter, Bump, Cisco, Way, Mazone, Flande

    AA: Hyatt, Correa, Ramirez, Sanchez, Aumont, Zeid

    A+: Colvin, Pettibone, Shreve, Cosart, May (I wouldn’t mind if he gets bumped to AA)

    A: Rodriguez, Hernandez, Pettis, Hollands (and a couple from these guys: Fritsch, Buchanan, Claypool. Manzanillo, Biddle, Garner, Bonilla)

    Did I miss anyone? Maybe a AAAA guy or two. Early in the season, more starters are needed because guys will only go 3 or 4 innings so Aumont could start in A+, Flande or Way or Cisco could be at AA. Zeid might also be a floater or go straight to the bullpen. I like him as a starter but I think the Phils see him as a reliever.

    Santana will get another shot at Lakewood. Hewitt should start in the DSL but he’ll be in Lakewood. Valle will be in A+ and Rupp will start in A but they could have them both in A+ like they did with D’Arnaud and Valle at A a few years ago. Just to reduce the wear and tear on Valle at the start.

  28. I think the minor league rotations will look like this:

    AAA- Carpenter, Bump, Flande, Naylor, and an older guy that gets sent down after Spring Training
    AA- Ramirez, Sanchez, Cisco, Hyatt, Garcia
    A+- Colvin, Cosart, May, Pettibone, Shreve
    A- Rodriguez, Hernandez, Biddle, Sampson, one other guy from Williamsport

    I think guys like Aumont and Zeid will be in the bullpen.

  29. Allentown here, I’ll try the rotations. I agree pretty much with Brandon, but think both Claypool and Garner are in the Lakewood rotation
    AAA — Carpenter, Worley, Bump, Naylor, Flande
    AA — Ramirez, Zeid, Hyatt, Sanchez, May (Cisco, Garcia, Way in pen)
    A+ — Aumont, Colvin, Cosart, Shreve, Pettibone
    A- — Rodriguez, Claypool, Garner, Biddle, Hernandez

  30. The Phils need to inject some youth into the major league roster. De Fratus had a dominant year and was very good in winter ball. Isn’t it time to give him a shot in the majors?

  31. I agree that the Lakewood outfield composition could be the biggest story of ST. Altherr, Hewitt, Dugan, Alvarez, Santana, Collier and Eldemire are 7 guys with 4 or 5 spots. Collier will probably stay at XST since he’s missed so much time but the other 6 could all make a good case to be there and to be a legit prospect (except Hewitt, the 1st rd pick interestingly). Santana is the youngest still so and didn’t tear it up at SS so my guess is that they keep him at XST and make him earn a promotion. The interesting pitcher to me is Nick Hernandez. He threw the ball better than anyone last year before he got hurt but unfortunately I heard that he had no control when he came back later in the year. Obviously, I hope he’s healthy. They’ll probably go slow with him and keep him in XST for awhile plus the fact that there are no open spots. C Water will have our “Super 5” from Lakewood and Reading will have Hyatt, Sanchez, Zeid (yes he earned it), Ramirez, and Aumont. There’s probably a chance that Aumont goes to the pen and starts as the closer at Reading but I think they still need him to pitch more innings. DeFratus will start as the closer at LHV with Schwim as his set up guy. Rupp will start at L Wood obviously because Valle will be at C Water. L Wood will have a nice rotation also with Rodriquez, Biddle and Garner. Lots to choose from for the last two starts. As for Savery, he’ll be the starting B at Reading and if he shows any ability to play the OF, you can be sure he’ll move out there.

  32. I think the outfield is the Phillies’ next treasure trove of talent. I am very excited to see what Eldemire does. If you had to force me to pick one or two guys who nobody is focusing on very much right now who could develop into top tier prospects, I would pick Altherr and Eldemire.

    You know, I understand and appreciate that the Phillies’ approach is to take “tool shed” talent throughout the draft and work to turn these guys into great ballplayers. But it seems the guys that fall into this category are always pitchers or outfielders. I realize it’s probably a huge strech to think you could take a pure athlete and just make him, say, a catcher, but there’s something to be said for trying to do that with infielders. Is that a legitmate possibility or is that just a pipe dream? I just don’t know, but I do know that, even if it is a possibility, you would have to draft a different body type to make this happen. A Jimmy Rollins or Brian Westbrook body-type, not a Jiwan James/Domonic Brown body type.

  33. Catch, it seems to me that turning toolsy players into pitchers and outfielders is a real strength of the Phillies’ development team. You could try and change the focus of scouting and try to draft and develop infielders. But if you have something that your organization does better than any other team, why screw that up? Better to create a surplus of something you’re good at and use that depth to plug the holes on the major league roster, rather than just ending up with a bunch of mediocre infield prospects.

    Talent is talent, and until the league bans trading any source of talent is a plus for the Phillies.

  34. Alan, I’m not suggesting they move away from their model of drafting “toolsy” outfield and pitching prospects. I agree that they are good at that and should keep doing it. To the contrary, I was wondering whether that philosophy could be extended to middle infielders. But, perhaps, at a deeper level, you are on to something – if I use a draft pick to select a “toolsy” middle infielder, that’s a pick that could have been used on a “toolsy” outfielder or pitcher. Putting that aside, the real question, then, is whether, when selecting middle infielders, you go for the more clearly projectable players with known skills set or include a bunch of raw but physically talented athletes in that pool. It’s a rhetorical question about who you draft when you do draft middle infielders. I also agree that, for catchers, it’s just a whole different set of considerations, although it is very interesting to note that, when signing Ruiz as a catching prospect, the Phillies did so based almost entirely on projection of his athletic skills for that position, which he was not playing extensively at the time (there was a fabulous article this summer, I believe in the Inquirer, about the scouting and signing of Ruiz).

  35. I am wondering, where is all the talent the Phillies have supplied in the major leagues by drafting toolboxes and making them outfielders? I see five outfielders on the current roster besides Brown (and not counting Werth), who has proven nothing yet, and every one of them is from another organization. So, did the Phillies trade all those toolboxes and provide other teams with talent? I see Bourn, who is hardly a star. Golson stinks. Reggie Taylor isn’t destined for the hall of fame. Maybe Jeff Jackson?

    I have never seen results from this toolbox approach. Am I missing someone? Yeah, there’s some talent in the lower levels and there’s Dom Brown. Michael Taylor was disappointing in Oakland, albeit mainly due to injury. But the Phillies’ approach can hardly be termed a success until they actually create a top notch player at the major league level. And for all the talk of the Phillies developing pitchers, who have they drafted and developed besides Hamels? Happ? Who else? Kendrick is a mediocrity.

    The Phillies have a brief run of solid drafting of infielders a few years back. Utley, Rollins, Rolen and Howard. And they signed Chooch as a free agent second baseman. They developed a small handful of relief pitchers over the years.

    But how can we say the organization is great at developing pitching and outfielders when there is scant evidence of that?

  36. The jury is out on outfielders. But the Phillies have produced Cole Hamels, Gavin Floyd, Brett Myers, J.A. Happ in the last decade, and Gio Gonzalez is now successful in Oakland though he wasn’t a Phillies draftee.

  37. The outfield In Lakewood seems to be the most interesting part of this discussion. I think the pitching will work itself out during the spring, top to bottom. I would like to see Santana there only because I think he has highest potential.

  38. Lakewood for Hernandez. The Phillies might be tempted to aggressively promote him though because since he’s on the 40 man roster, he only has three option years to work with. I think Edgar Duran goes to extended Spring Training.

  39. I like Dom, but if Upton’s Labrum is ok I find a way to package him. You can’t keep trading youth, but getting a 23 year old proven RF starter under team control for 5 years at reasonable $$$ could be Werth it. Misspelling intended.

  40. it would take more than Brown to get Upton. I expect it would go something like Brown, Cosart/May/Singleton/Colvin, and a player like Valle or Jiwan James.

  41. bob I understand what you are saying but explain to me how boston get gonzalez for three over hyped prospect from boston, kelly hasn’t not proven anything yet , none of these guys in my opinion is near major league ready, so why cant we get a upton for this type of package, is upton so much better than gonzalez????

  42. In a word, yes. Gonzalez had one year left on his contract. If you trade for Upton, you’re getting him for five cost-controlled years.

  43. When evaluation trades there is more to it than just an evaluation of talent. You also have to look at player age and contract status. Gonzalez is the better offensive player but his age and contract make him less attractive to most teams than Upton would be.

    As for the discussion about turning toolsy players into IF/C I think that is a much tougher transition to make because of the specific skills needed as an infielder. It takes certain baseball instincts to understand how to turn a DB, play positioning, reading hops, etc.

    Taking an athlete and trying to teach those instincts is very difficult. That’s why a guy like Hewitt was quickly moved to the OF because he has enough to work on with his hitting to also work on all of the defensive pieces as well.

  44. Julio Rodriguez is an interesting player. He is currently performing very well in Puerto Rico as a starter. He is going 6 innings allowing less than two runs over his last two starts. He was a key to Lakewood’s winning their championship. He showed in the playoffs that he has the fire to succeed and lift his team. He has given the Phillies evidence that he should be promoted to Clearwater. I don’t think he should be in Lakewood again. Hernandez is another pitcher that dominated in Lakewood. He is older and should be advanced to Clearwater. Buchanan is another interesting starter. He was consistently good at Williamsport and should be in Lakewood with Biddle. Hollands is left-handed and showed good stuff at Williamsport. He should probably be in Lakewood. The Phillies have drafted well and have a glut of good pitchers. The vast majority are right-handed. Does this make Matt Way, who is a bit more advanced, a better option for Reading than Colby Shreve? I can’t wait to see how this shakes out.
    As far as fielders, I think your second base/shortstop combination at Lakewood is Hernandez and Duran. Alonso showed real gains and should handle third base. Murray should be your first baseman at Lakewood. Hernandez should advance swiftly as a switch hitter who bats .300.

  45. J-Rod is one of the few Phils prospects to helped himself in winter ball. He is pitching at a AA-AAA level in the PWL when compared to similar numbers put up by starter Erik Arnesen in the same league who pitched at AA-AAA levels in the Nats organization last year. The difference is that Arnesen will turn 27 in March and J-Rod will turn 21 in next Aug. J-Rod has had a great 2010 so far by going 12-4 combined in the NY-Penn, the SAL, with PR in the Pan Am Qualifying tourney and the PWL.

  46. Eldemire is a guy that intrigues me as well. In my ST trip this year, he’ll be one of the first guys I look for. As for “toolsy” guys, what that means to me is a very athletic guy who hasn’t played that much baseball and is behind in his development as a result. The team hopes that the great athletic tools will allow the player to improve. That description doesn’t fit a middle infielder where its all about repetition and skill. Hewitt was different, he was a 1st rd pick from Conn who hadn’t played that much compared to many others. Looking at him now, I don’t see a great athlete although I do see great athletic skills within him. Shortstops have to come from 1st rd picks or great latin signees or plain luck.

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