Today’s topic is this. Which Phillies prospect that currently has zero days of MLB service time will be the first to reach the major leagues in 2011? Vote for your choice, then explain why you think that below. If you vote “OTHER”, make sure you put your choice in the comments section.
56 thoughts on “Topic of the day: First to the majors in 2011”
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Phuture Phillies 
I’m going to say Matt Rizzotti although De Fratus is probably the ‘right’ answer.
I have a combination of thoughts that led to this response. First, with Mathieson, Bastardo, Kendrick, Worley, and Carpenter all clawing for roster spots, De Fratus may have a hard time getting onto the 40 man despite potentially being the best of the bunch. Further, it’s possible that he’s dealt over the offseason as his value has spiked and the Phillies can afford to chase their relievers via free agency.
So that’s why I think De Fratus might get pushed back/shipped off. Schwimer has a chance to get a call in 2010, but I don’t think the other guys have much of a shot barring bullpen Armageddon. Harold Garcia might have the next best chance if the organization tires of Valdez/Pete Orr. In comparison, Rizzotti just needs an injury to Howard (and to continue hitting/walking) to get the nod. At the worst, he’ll probably find his way onto the September roster which could tie him with the likes of Schwimer.
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I went with Justin D because I think the bullpen will be where the most turnover occurs and he will be most able to take advantage of it. I can see him in a 7th inning role if Lidge is traded and Madson closes.
If they keep Lidge he will be the first one up in the event of injury.
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Interesting topic. I picked Schwimer as I think the Phillies are more likely to call him up based on need whereas De Fratus will set his own timetable for the first half of 2011, IMO.
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Although now that I think of it, Tagg Bozied probably belongs in this discussion.
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i said schwimm. I think his command and control and pitching IQ will win out vs. the superior upside of De Fratus, at least in the short term.
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I voted Schwimmer because he’s a little farther along.
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Went with De Fratas because I think he is the most likely to impress in ST and plant the seed in the minds of the coaching staff once injuries happen.
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DeFratus. For the reasons mentioned by Rick Wise Guy. DeFratus is progressing the fastest among the relievers who have yet to reach the majors. The bullpen is where we will see the most movement between the farm and the big club.
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I went with DeFratus as the flavor of the week (and because I give him the best chance to impress at Spring Training)
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DeFratus should be the guy. It’s unlikely that anyone already on the 40 man roster, who fits the criteria, will be there ahead of Justin or Schwimer or maybe even Rizz. Ramirez, Naylor, Flande and Sanchez are all on the 40 man roster and haven’t pitched yet in the majors. Interesting that they are all pitchers. The Phils have no position players who are on the 40 man roster with zero time in the majors.
A good write-in might be “a rule 5 pick”.
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I voted Schwimm, but Harold Garcia is a darkhorse candidate to make the opening day roster as a utility guy.
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I voted De Fratus as well. With the Phillies roster as expensive as it is, and the need to fill a few bullpen positions already presenting itself, I’d imagine they will give an extra long look during spring training to a few of the relief pitchers in the minors, simply to control costs. Maybe those positions go to guys we’ve already seen, the Mathieson’s and Bastardo’s, but with what we’ve seen from De Fratus already, and with a good spring trianing, if he doesn’t break camp with the big league team I think he’s an injury away from seeing MLB action. I could be wrong, but I think it’s possible.
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I actually think it will be Stutes of the group above because the Phils like him as a long man out of the pen. DeFratus will get his shot later in the year and Schwim could as well.
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Brad Johnson … I believe DeFratus needs to be protected this year, so he will be on the 40 man roster. I did choose DeFratus based on his 2010 season and continuted performance in AFL. Think the Phils may look for a cheap option in the bullpen, and barring a rule 5 pick, I give DeFratus the edge over Mathieson, who needs more time to develop something off-speed.
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I’m almost certain DeFratus has at least a year before he needs to be protected. Remember they lengthened the eligibility period.
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DeFratus will likely have the best career of these players (although Schwim and Garcia could provide some surprises), but I actually think Stutes (if he were a hockey player, they would call him “Stutesie”) will get the call first and it won’t be anything glamorous, in fact, it could easily be a temporary recall. It’s possible Schwim could also get that call, but I think they will be more careful about grooming him.
Truth be told, Schwim or Stutes could easily be traded to a team or team that will carrry one or both of them on the opening day roster. A bunch of these AAA relief pitchers will end up getting traded, but I don’t think DeFratus is one of them.
I don’t expect to see Ramirez in the majors until 2012 at the earliest. Garcia might get a September call-up.
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I voted Harold Garcia since he needs to be added to the 40-man roster by Friday 11-19-10 in order to be protected from being drafted in the rule 5 draft and because I read that the Phillies have been working him out at SS and in CF. I believe that he has a good chance of making the opening day 25-man roster as the utility man who could play 2B, 3B, SS, LF, and CF. He is a switch hitter with excellent speed and some power.
I think the decision as to who will be the first to make the roster will come down to who will be added to the 40-man roster. The Phillies will be making a number of roster decisions in the next few days concerning the 40-man roster and who will be protected in the major league phase and the minor league phases of rule 5 draft. The major league 40-man protected list as well as the AAA 38-man and AA 37-man protected lists must be submitted by midnight Friday 11/19/2010.
Since the Phillies are short on 40-man spots I believe they will make the following moves:
The Phillies will add Justin DeFratus, Joe Savery, Matt Rizzotti, Harold Garcia, Freddy Galvis, Tyson Gillies to the 40-man roster since they could be taken in the major league portion of the rule 5 if not added to the 40-man roster.
The Phillies will ask waivers on Yohan Flande, Drew Naylor, Brian Bocock, and Carlos Rivero. If they clear waivers (which I think they will) they could be outrighted to Lehigh Valley since they all have an outright left and have less than 7 years professional service time and thus unable to become minor league free agents.
Other player who are eligible for the rule 5 draft who I believe will be added to the 38-man Lehigh Valley roster to at least protect them from the minor league portion of the rule 5 (they still could be taken in the major league portion of the rule 5) are Tyson Brumett, Chance Chapman, Heitor Correa, Jacob Diekman, Ed Garcia, Matt German, Chris Kissock, D’Abry Myers, Derrick Mitchell, and Luke Wertz.
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The plan underway with Garcia to be an all-around utility guy for all those positions is a good one. He should be spending most or all of ’11 at AAA LV to further develop those skills and to show that his hitting in ’10 was not a fluke. His fade at ’10s latter part of the season MAY be from the length of the season on top of his early injury.
If he does show a continuation of his ’10 hitting and can do a better than average position player, he should be up to the bigs in September. But not likely before then.
I vote DeFratus whose startling numbers call for the most consideration. My fervent wish is for him NOT to be traded. IMO, he represents a large part of the near future pen and likely a closing candidate for sometime in ’12.
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Take note: a list of the “best” top 54 ’11 draftee prospects has been posted!
Apparently the list has been compiled by BA’s people.
Check the Bleacher Report.
Among that first 54 there are nine (9) SSs/3Bs among them…which many perceive to be holes in our pharm system. Check it out.
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That’s cool about the draft picks, but I still say that you draft entirely based on value, not on need unless the players are almost dead even in draft rank.
Whenever I think about drafting based on need, I recall the story about how the Dallas Cowboys (yes, I hate them too, this is not a love story) had Joe Montana first on their draft board when it came time to pick a player, but skipped over him and drafted for need instead. The Philadelphia fans are eternally grateful that that mistake gave us a decade of Danny White and not a generation of Joe Montana in that blased star helmet, but it shows, in very real terms, how moving away from draft rankings can go so horribly wrong.
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Not only that, but you also have the problem that your needs can substantially change in a year or two.
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I think my second choice might be Bocock who is a nothing to lose semi-prospect. Of course he would needed someone getting a minor injury like a strained groin. Not big enough to have the phils go out and get a guy but enough to crack open the door.
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I picked De Fratus, although I would not be at all surprised to see a scenario in which a hot Double A starter–maybe Ramirez, Austin Hyatt, Jesus Sanchez or even (if he starts at Reading, as some speculate) Trevor May–is forced into a contributing role next year a la Kendrick in 2007. Both Halladay and Oswalt pitched a lot of innings in 2010, and are thus at some injury risk, and the payroll looks to be maxed out, and there does not figure to be a lot of rotation depth at Lehigh Valley. I’m not saying this is a desirable or likely possibility, but pitchers in their mid-30s are definitely a fragile commodity.
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NEPA- I didn’t think Galvis or Gillies needed to be added to the 40 man since they were signed as 17 yr olds??
I voted De Fratus like most others. My thinking was thus:
Offensively the Phills have Valdez and Rivero. Over the past several years they have gone out and picked up veterans to play at AAA and used them in case of injuries. I can’t see any position players making a dent on this roster. So the player will have to be a pitcher.
The Phills have some depth, though I would like more, at starting pitching. They have Worley/Kendrick as the 5th + 6th starter. They have Naylor and Carpenter as well. I could see 2 pitchers in the mold of Duckworth at AAA providing some depth. So starting pitchers are really out.
It comes down to the pen.
Mathieson and Herndon will be the lone righties that the Phills can fall back on. If one struggles and there is an injury DeFreatus shoots right up the depth charts. I take him over Schwimmer cause he’s also will be on the 40 man roster.
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I think the rizz may be the first one. He could stay hot and ride a good spring training into starting the year in Philly. He may only last the first two weeks or so until they need a fifth starter. Two of these guys may start the year with the big club. I don’t think that would be a stretch. Time will tell !!
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I voted for Michael Schwimer because I think he will be the first to get called up. I think that Schwimer, De Fratus, Garcia, Stutes, and Cisco will all begin the year in AAA and Ramirez will begin the year in AA. I think that the phillies will want Garcia and De Fratus to spend some time in AAA since they have only played in AA but they have a chance to get called up at one point during the season. I don’t think that Cisco or Ramirez are even close to major league ready. I also think that Stutes will be on the phillies at some point next year, just after Schwimer.
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Also, the phillies signed Dan Meyer.
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I think there is a very good chance the phils use a rule 5 pick this year to fill either a bullpen spot or a utility IF spot. They can likely afford it at those two spots, although the bullpen spot could block some young guys.
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After looking at the results thus far, I guess the real poll question should have been
” Who will be the 2nd prospect to be called up in 2011?”
I voted Justin De Fratus too. I still think he could be a nice prospect to trade away after what he’s done these past few weeks. I don’t think it will be Schwimer do to the fact that he’s not even on the 40 man yet (and doesn’t need to be until a year from now…right?). Why would the Phils use a spot on the 40 man for him when they could carry another stick instead?
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LA Phils Phan
Please say it isn’t so.
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I went with Schwimer because I figured he’s already in AAA, has great peripherals and they probably wouldn’t worry about starting his clock unlike DeFratus (who projects a bit higher and is thus a bit more valuable).
I DO think Schwim is a good reliever though and will have a good MLB career.
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Rule 5 should be considered like going to the casino. The money is gone on a gamble. And unless the player is outstanding let him go. No sense in reading something into a situation that isn’t there.
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If the Phillies draft a Rule 5 guy for the bullpen, he better be the next coming of Johan Santana. I don’t think David Herndon was a mistake last year (in fact, I applaud the team for their courage in taking and keeping him – it showed me they are still resourceful and innovative), but, this year, there’s no way I take Herndon over the guys they have at AAA. Now, if the Rule 5 guy is a hitter, that might be intriguing. I think Uggla was a Rule 5 pick.
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The need is for this year not two or three down the road. Do you think there is a hitter that will come in this year. I doubt it.
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cisco only b/c he was the least obvious.
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I’m not saying they should make a Rule 5 pick – I am saying that IF they make a Rule 5 pick who they decide to keep that player would have to either have elite pitching ability or bring the possibility of immediate help in the lineup. Is such an opportunity likely? No, not at all, but the Rule 5 draft is really like a cheap option contract. There’s no harm in taking a guy and returning him if he doesn’t appear worthy of staying on the big league roster.
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Yeah but most of the time management outsmarts themselves. The fact that Herndon will be at AAA shows that it was wasted time. Remember Vic was offered back. That worked out well. I have said it before. Don’t clog up the 25th sport but use it was a rotating door to look at prospects and fill temporary needs with organization player.
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Who says it’s a foregone conclusion that Herndon starts in AAA? I think he has a better shot to stick than any of the minor league guys we have.
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If Herndon goes to AAA and develops into a solid contributor moving forward it certainly wasn’t wasted time. Fact is that the Phillies made it to the playoffs with the best record in baseball even with Herdon “clogging up the roster”.
That they lost in the playoffs has nothing to do with the 25th roster spot and no one they brought up from the minors would have changed that.
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We will see how you rate Herndon against the rest at the end of the year.
For that matter top 30 also.
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I vote for DeFratus-because he has chance to open in MLB, as the 6th inning utility type of pitcher as the roster currently stands. Garcia also I give outside chance to go North, and the rest will be awhile later, if ever.
Bocock- does not qualify for this list as he not only played for Phillies last season in MLB, but also with San Francisco earlier.
I think the Phillies roster is only around 31 players right now, so there is no need for a massive removal of players from the 40 man roster. Maybe only a few in overstocked positions, and the players who will need protection is not that many.
DeFratus is indeed eligible because the 2007 draft class is due, except for the High School types who have a birth year of around 1989 such as Julian Sampson. DeFratus has a 1987 birth day so he goes in the pool as does first pick that draft , Joe Savery who has a 1985 birthday. Proof the 2007 draft is up is that from the 2006 draft last year they had to make a move with Quinton Berry a college draftee that year.
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NoWheels,
Herdon has a full ML season so he isn’t eligible to be rated in the top-30 list but it doesn’t really matter where he would rate. The point I made that you were unable to dispute is that keeping Herndon on the roster in 2010 didn’t cause the team any damage but it did result in an additional quality arm being added to the system for $50,000.
IF the Phillies had missed the playoffs because of Herndon’s poor performances then your incessant complaining about his taking up a roster spot might have a leg to stand on but they did make the playoffs, Herndon wasn’t the worst pitcher on the roster, and no potential playoff savior was prevented from joining the team.
If we were keeping score, that would be Amaro – 1, Nowheels – 0
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I think that Herndon will definitely be on the phillies roster next year. I think that the phillies obviously see something in him if they kept him on their team all year. I would be surprised if any of the minor league guys make the team over Herndon.
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Someone’s rating in the top 30 has absolutely NO bearing on whether he’s on the roster next year. Sorry, that was a ridicuous comment. Top 30s are about projection, not about which level you attain. Cosart and Colvin will be top 5, but are nowhere near as close to the Majors as DeFratus and Schwimmer. Guess based on nowheels, we should expect these relievers to be ranked ahead of them.
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Sometimes you get lucky with Rule 5 guys. Obviously Victorino turned out pretty good for us. I seriously doubt that Herndon gets on the roster unless he’s lights out in spring training. He needs to show improved command. But to say that Herndon is a waste is way premature. He could still help down the line.
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Your mom
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Went De Fratus, he’ll force their hand in ST, 6-7th inning guy to start.
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To me, Herndon was a very pleasant surprise. He throws a heavy sinking fastball that was routinely hit into the ground. I expect that he’ll start the season at LHV in the rotation to get innings. However, I also wouldn’t be shocked to see him win the long man role and make the big league squad with a strong ST. He’s certainly in the mix. Why does everyone think that DeFratus will jump to the majors after only a month or so of AA to be a middle reliever? I don’t see that happening. Its nice to have cheap arms to choose from but remember that this team wants to win and Charley doesn’t like kids. 2 rookies, including Bastardo, max. As for Trevor May making the majors next year, are you kidding me? He’s starting at High A and hoping to end at AA. He’s a guy that has had control problems and will be developed carefully. As for Hyatt or Sanchez, maybe since Sanchez is already on the 40 but they’re both behind Worley and Kendrick obviously.
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“Charley doesn’t like kids” I can see that you have to manage kids where as a guy like Baez is effortless.
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I wouldn’t count out any individual bullpen arms. Those guys more than any other player have a way of sometimes figuring everything out and absolutely skyrocketing into the majors before anyone knows who the hell they are.
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I think it might be interesting to look at the answers to the topic question over the last ten years.
2001: Eddie Oropesa, RP, 29 years old
2002: Carlos Silva, RP, 22
2003: Chase Utley, PH, 24
2004: Elizardo Ramirez, RP, 21
2005: Robinson Tejeda, RP, 23
2006: Carlos Ruiz, C, 27
2007: Joe Bisenius, RP, 24
2008: Brad Harman, IF, 22
2009: Sergio Escalona, RP, 24
2010: David Herndon, RP, 24
7/10 were relief pitchers. Harman I believe was an injury callup. Ruiz got called up when Lieberthal got hurt. Utley started the season with the Phils, got one at bat and went back down to the minors. Sometimes an injury gives a position player a shot, but most of the AAA players (Bocock, Thompson, Mayberry, Orr, Kratz) already had cups of coffee so that’s unlikely. (And if Howard gets hurt, I’d be surprised to see the Phils give time to Rizzotti over Ross Gload.)
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Yup, Harman was an injury call-up…and the major reason they picked him was because Jason Donald was injured too.
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I’m going with Jesus Sanches. He’s already on the 40 man.
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I’m going to say Tagg Bozied. The guy can flat-out rake. And while he might not still fit that prospect label, he could be a valuable guy off the bench, particularly if an outfield or corner infielder gets banged up and needs a short stay on the shelf.
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Long shot Drew Naylor (if he is still on the team). He will be on the 40-man and has no projection to worry about. I think he could be a longman relief callup.
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