July 28 Discussion

We have box scores!

GCL Phillies won 13-1.
Lakewood won 9-0.
Clearwater lost 4-3.
Reading won 9-4 (continuation of suspended game)
Reading lost 6-2.
Lehigh Valley lost 5-3.

Some notes

* Trevor May struck out 14 in 7 innings, but more importantly, 0 BB. We knew he could strike out A ball hitters, the control is the big question. Good start.
* Singleton 3/5 and now up to .319 and Leandro Castro is back off the DL.
* Gose drew his 32nd BB tonight. He had 35 all of last season.
* Rizzotti went 5/5 in the first game with 2 doubles (21), 1/2 with a BB in the second game. Up to .364/.443/.653 in 239 AB.
* JC Ramirez went 6 IP – 2 ER – 5 H – 1 BB – 5 K
* Worley with a solid AAA debut: 6 IP – 0 ER – 5 H – 1 BB – 7 K
* Mathieson got torched: 0.1 IP – 4 ER – 3 H – 0 BB – 1 K

70 thoughts on “July 28 Discussion

  1. The Riz now has nutty supporters like me as well as doubters wondering just how good he can be.
    Does Gose have to be protected? If so I would make hime a Sept callup just to expose him to Lopes.
    The AFL list will be interesting .

  2. I don’t believe Gose has to be protected this year, too young. Rizzotti is blowing up right before our eyes this year. Good to see a guy make such a positive move forward in his development. That offsets guys like Hewitt and Collier who have not.
    Good to see Worley doing so well this year. This has been a very impressive year on the farm in terms of developing. The system has really rebounded from all of the trades. Amazing progress in such a short period of time.
    Any word on Hinson or the pitcher they picked in the 5th round?

  3. James stole most of my thunder but there are some guys I’d like to mention. Michael Dabbs has hit .344 since his call up to LWD. Manzanillo in the GCL had another terrific start: 6 IP, 2 H, ER, 7 K, BB. Francisco Diaz, a 20 year old switch hitting catcher from VZ. He’s hit .321 in his last 10 games. He walks as much as he strikes out. Not much power though. Interesting split with him is, he bats .310 at home and .154 away. Sample size isn’t significant but I noticed he’s had that kind of split in previous year in the VSL.

    I’ve mentioned Gabirel Arias in the DSL too many times but I never get tired of his stats: 44 IP, 33 H, 2 ER, 41 Ks. Did I mention 2 ER in 44 IP? His ERA is less than the torque allowance of an exterior bolt on the space shuttle. Someone’s going to point out that there aren’t any bolts on the exterior of the space shuttle but just trying to paint a picture. He’s 21 and old for the league but it might be worth a trip to the GCL or Wmsprt to find out.

  4. Bellman
    Funny that outer space and the Riz are on the same page.
    Any chance of the Gose moving up ?
    What the hell is wrong with Gillies anyway.

  5. I think Rizzotti is the chip that will get us the pitching at the Major League Level that Ruben is looking for. Its a shame but lets face it the kid is blocked at 1st base. His swing has come a long way this year. He can flat out rake and from what I can see from the games I have watched him play he is not defensively either.

  6. Did not see the Leandro Castro thing, as it is not reflected on the MiLB roster yet. Dabbs looks to be hitting and gaining an OF position, so maybe Hewitt moves to be considered the DH on this team for now, if it is not Steven Batts. Lots of moves at Lakewood, as Julio Rodriguez is promoted, giving a rotation of Colvin, Shreve, Petitbone, May, and Julio Rodriguez. Chad Poe was released (CSNPhilly), David Doss (Catcher, also first listed as DH candidate here after sharing DH with Dabbs at Williamsport, and last season’s Draftee) retired, and Keoni DeRenne returns to where he started season as player coach after returning from LVIP when Melvin Dorta came off the Disabled List.

  7. The riz is tearing up AA. I’m sure he is in a lot of deals rube talks about. If this was about rizzotti’s delvelopment he’d be in LV. The phils are showcasing the eastern league batting leader. Does anyone think if he was to get promoted to the iron pigs and go 4 for his first 21 that would look better than killing AA pitching like he’s doing now?

  8. I think this is relevant since we’re talking about prospects, but do you think Brown gets the call if Victorino goes on the DL? Or do you think they “play it safe” by bringing up a guy like Mayberry?

    I could see them doing the latter because 1. They don’t want to start the clock on Brown, and 2. Victorino would presumably be back in 15-20 days, and then what do they do with Brown? It would be too late for them to trade Werth to free up a spot for him, and he’d have to go back down.

  9. May had a great game let’s hope this tiny step back was all he needed to move his career forward for good.
    Singleton’s bb/k ratio is very impressive. You don’t see that much from an 18 year old and a 17 pitch at bat ? Wow! That simple ratio tells me that the phils could have a very special player on their hands. This far into the season for him to be playing against so much older players and doing so well and displaying patience and a knowledge of the strike zone, look out!

  10. Bringing up Brown now or in September shouldnt make a difference to his ‘clock’

  11. Nik – I guess my theory is they wouldn’t bring him up in September either. I think for premium players, they want to delay the clock process as long as possible, until they’re ready to become full time players.

  12. Someone else mentioned this in a previous thread, but Overbeck seems to be settling in. He has an OPS of .859 in July. It’s nice to see him bounce back from his rough start. He’s still striking out a lot, but he’s getting enough walks to keep his OBP about 85 points above his AVG.

    I posted this in yesterday’s thread, but in case you didn’t see it you should read this article on Trevor May. It offers a lot of insight: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100727&content_id=12701378&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

  13. I was just excited that Overbeck’s average is now finally higher than Freddy Galvis. Baby steps…

  14. If the Phillies are not convinced that Brown will produce more than a Fransisco/Gload platoon, then they will bring up Mayberry. I believe they will bring up Mayberry. They will just stick him on the bench to replace Fransisco as the RH 4th OF.
    If Victorino’s injury is long term, and the Fransico/Gload platoon is killing them, then they might bring up Brown.

  15. I looked on a different site and seen the phillies names of the top 38 players we drafted were listed did we sign all of them ? They were listed under GCP on their roster.

  16. They need to try Bastardo as the closer at Lehigh. Mathieson has blown too many games, and has no future with the big team.

  17. Joe in Deptford, click on the 2010 draft picks link above to see who has signed (in green).

  18. Mathieson has 20 saves and 4 blown saves for a save percentage of .833. If he had this record in the majors, he would be tied for 12th among major league closers. This is certainly acceptable, if not ideal. In addition, Mathieson is sometimes used for two innings (as in his last blown save) which increases the chances of a blown save. Closers at the big league level are very rarely used this way, so his record is actually better than it looks in that respect. However, Mathieson’s record was compiled facing AAA hitters and we won’t know how he will fare in the majors until he pitches more than one or two innings there. The complaints about Mathieson usually focus on his fastball being too straight and his secondary pitches being below average. If both of these were really true, it is hard to see how he could be achieving success even at AAA, as he would have no real weapons to get hitters out with.

  19. Mathieson will get another shot probably in September. We’ll have abetter idea then how he fairs at the MLB level. The Phillies are probably interested in adding another experienced bullpen arm here at the trade deadline.

  20. It is indeed too soon to give up on Mathieson as a potential Major League reliever, but I’m having a really hard time seeing him as a potential closer at this point. Heck, Schwimer may be the best internal closer option at this point.

  21. I talked to Tyson Gillies out at the bar about a week ago, he said he started running and it took a few days but its starting to get going, he was optomistic that he would be back soon. He really misses playing and is bored he said. On this particular night though he didn’t seem bored, walking around the bar flirting with the girls, had two girls on his arms at times… lol.

  22. Bastardo needs to be on the majorleague squad. There’s officially no reason for Herndon to be on the team. He’s been active for over 90 days which means that he doesn’t have to be offered back to Anaheim if optioned to the minors. I couldn’t possibly imagine that the org. values Herndon over Bastardo or even Mathieson. Also, Herndon sucks and I wouldn’t care if we completely lost him anyways.

  23. Even if Mathieson comes up in September, if they are still in a pennant race, who knows if he will get to pitch?

  24. “Nik – I guess my theory is they wouldn’t bring him up in September either. I think for premium players, they want to delay the clock process as long as possible, until they’re ready to become full time players.”

    Sure blow the pennant but not start the clock.

  25. Hope this isn’t considered OT. Rgearding brown and service time, I’m having a hard time getting definitive information as to whether bringing him up now as opposed to the beginning of next year makes a difference. As to super two, I think the rule is clear and that it would NOT make a difference. As I interpret the rules, though, it WOULD make a difference as to normal arbitration and Free agency. (Though a Sept call up after rosters expand is different – clock starts running when the player hits the 25 man roster for the first time, not when he first plays in the Major Leagues.)

    If I’m correct, and if Victorino isn’t out long term, I don’t think a couple of weeks of Brown is worth burning a year of service time.

  26. Can never see this too much … gotta love when people talk about Lakewood being loaded!! From today’s BA Daily Dish

    We’ve written about how just how loaded the Phillies’ low Class A Lakewood club is, but one name that we hadn’t expected to see there anymore was righthander Trevor May. The 20-year-old was Lakewood’s best pitcher down the stretch last year as the BlueClaws won the South Atlantic League title, going 4-1, 2.56 in 77 innings after joining the club last June.

    Promoted to high Class A Clearwater to start this year, May’s stuff hadn’t gone anywhere—led by his 92-94 mph fastball—but his control had. May held opponents to a .212 average and struck out 90 in 70 innings for Clearwater. But he was his own worst enemy, walking 61 batters, beaning five more and throwing nine wild pitches in 16 outings. That wildness contributed to a 5.01 ERA and earned him a ticket back to Lakewood in early July.

    May hasn’t needed long to get comfortable in his old surroundings, however. He struck out nine hitters in two of his first three outings. Then came his start last night in Delmarva. May fanned seven hitters through the first three innings and went on to strike out 14 over seven shutout innings. He allowed just four hits—all singles, one of them a bunt single—and walked none, the first time all year he hasn’t issued a free pass. The 14 punchouts were easily a career high for May (his previous was 10, done twice with Clearwater) and tied Lakewood’s single-game franchise record. May improved to 3-1, 3.10 in 29 innings for Lakewood and 8-6, 4.45 in 99 innings for the year overall.

  27. When it comes to service time, the point is not to burn service time in overly meaningless games. If Brown is your best option in a pennant race, you absolutely bring him up. Every single win, every game makes a difference.

  28. As for Lakewood I mentioned the BA Podcast last week. The BA commentators believed that Jonathan Villar possesses perhaps the best defensive “tools” in all of the minors.

  29. Hey, I’m not saying that the Phillies shouldn’t bring up Brown, I’m just speculating on what they’ll actually do, that’s all.

  30. Alan,

    Is the difference between Brown and the other alternatives, over a two week period, worth losing a full year of his services down the road (if I’m right about the FA clock, and if Victorino is out only a couple weeks)? No.

    It’s not as if you don’t have a point about pennant races, but you shouldn’t take it to absurd extremes. Really the same logic that says that you don’t overpay for a veteran rental (such as Oswalt) leads to the conclusion that you burn service time on a potential star only if you are receiving a BIG benefit.

    If Victorino was out for the year, I think the calculus would be different.

    Finally, does anyone know the correct answer vis a vis the service time calculation? Is all of this a moot point (assuming he will start the season with the team next year regardless)?

  31. At this point, if he starts the season next year in Philly it’s all redundant. The line for service time is generally somewhere in early June.

  32. What Alan says is my knowledge aslo. To just reiterate, if the Phillies think Brown starts the year with them in 2011, there would be no harm (from an abritration perspective) in him playing at this point in 2010.

  33. Jonny 2 Times – I never heard that 90 active rule pertaining to Rule 5 guys. As far as I know, if the Phillies tried to send him down, he first has to be offered back to the Angels. The Phillies really like Herndon’s arm and makeup. They want to keep him around this year, and work with him at the minor league level next year. Right now, there is really not a spot for Mathieson.
    Bastardo has had some control issues before at the big-league level. His BB to strike-out ratio wasn’t good. He does throw hard. Not really sure where he fits this year, if at all. Probably a September call-up.

  34. snakeman,

    I actually misread the rule-5 rules. A player needs to stay on 25-man roster for the entire season. But, the player has to stay active for at least 90 days. So the phils could just put him on the DL for the rest of the season and we’d still be able to keep him.

  35. They don’t have to send Herndon down. He has been on the 25 man roster for 90 days. All they have to do is think up some silly injury and DL him. They can’t lose him now.

  36. I know its been stated before but it seems a bunch of people are still unaware of the the “arbitration clock.”

    The deadline is either late may or early june, not sure the exact date but obviously that time has passed so it is irrelevant. Unless the Phils want to wait till next June to bring him up, they will not lose or waist a year of control. So there if there is room on the roster, there is no point in keeping him in LHV this year. I assume they want him for the playoffs so I can’t see him staying down much longer.

  37. If the Phillies believe they’ll start Brown from day 1 next year the clock will be the same if the brought him up now, correct me if im wrong.

  38. Everything else aside, I wish someone would point to something definitive regarding the service time rules, rather than just off the cuff opinions. I am almost certain that the wording of the super two rule is different than the wording for service time for FA and normal arbitration, and one would think that there was some practical real world effect of such different wording (the above posts seem to assume that there is not).

  39. LarryM – super 2 ruling is based on service time. They are on the same timeline so this time of year should be fine. It didn’t effect Ryan Howard the same as it won’t effect Brown.

  40. larrym,
    sounds like a mailbag question for pp! i’d like to hear the facts to clear everything up too.

  41. steveMC,

    why the heck is hyatt still in clearwater? he’s got 7 Ks through 5 innings now, which means he officially leads all minorleaguers in Ks. or is at least tied with matt moore

  42. All a super two means is that they have 4 years of arbitration instead of three. The clock does start now on his six years of service time for FA now that he is called up an on the 25 man roster

  43. From the CBA: “… a Player with at least two but less than three years of
    Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if: (a)
    he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately
    preceding season; and (b) he ranks in the top seventeen percent
    (17%) (rounded to the nearest whole number) in total service in the
    class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of
    Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86
    days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.”

    So Brown can’t be a Super 2 in 2013 because he won’t have 86 days of service this year.

    Whether he’s called up today or some time during the first 86 days of next season, he becomes arb eligible in 2014.

  44. D’oh. It’s still 2010, isn’t it? I should have said he won’t be a Super 2 in 2012 because he won’t have 86 days of service this year & that whether he’s called up now or during the first 86 days of next season he’s likely to become arb-eligible in 2013.

  45. Not sure there is a date where there is a cutoff, but it comes down to being in the top 17% of all players with 2+ years of service time (and less than 3). It would be awful tough for a guy who gets called up at the end of July to fall into that category. Hamels and Howard were “Super Twos”, but I think both were May call-ups (plus Howard was a Sept call up the prior year). The only way this would impact his clock if the Phils didn’t plan on keeping him on the big league roster next year, and he was called up mid or late season.

  46. Understood, Jonny 2 Times. Yes, if you slid him on the DL, that time would count, and Herndon would still be Phillies property. I am not sure though the Phillies would want to create an injury to move him there. I don’t think it’s as easy to fake an injury to stash players on the DL, as it used to be. Plus I really think the Phillies would rather have Herndon pitching and learning, on the big-league roster.

  47. I don’t think I’ve ever been this excited about the Phillies farm system. They really have the makings of a good squad 5 years from now. I just hope Rube doesn’t break up that future core in exchange for another big-name pitcher. Most of the pieces are already in place for sustained long-term success. We already have a plus hitting C in Valle, an athletic, talented SS in Villar, a bevy of talented outfielders, an elite slugger at 1B, an entire bullpen and an excellent rotation. Not to mention, that projected squad would be so cheap(for the first few years) that the rest of the holes could be filled with FAs.

    Vic’s injury kills any potential Werth trade, which is fine because those comp picks will make the 2011 draft much more exciting. Three first day picks in a talented draft class will surely bring a record amount of visitors to this site. I admit I was intrigued by the rumor that Simon Castro could be involved in a Werth trade,(Cosart, Colvin, May, Castro, Biddle- an entire rotation of 96 mph fastballs?) but those comp picks will enable me to waste a solid few months studying the draft. We need Werth’s bat down the stretch, especially now that he’s heating up, and keeping him will make this upcoming draft the most eagerly anticipated in recent history.(for phils fans)

    Pettibone’s emergence is excellent news. He’s gained velocity on his sinker, which now sits in the low 90s, but what about his secondary pitches? Has he sharpened his breaking ball? Has the jump in velocity allowed him to change speeds more effectively?

  48. Anyone listen to Gillick on sportnite? question beside brown can anyone help us now position players. he said you have galvis who could play short right now but you have to go to a ball to find positon players. What happen to riz ? garcia?

  49. Cat Stoker – Assuming that Brown plays all of the 2011 and 2012 seasons, the issue you raise is whether he becomes arbitration-eligible after the 2012 season as a Super Two. “86 days of service the immediately preceding season” would be a reference to Brown’s 2012 season.

    Will Brown be in the top 17% of his class? I doubt it because of his late call-up.

    At the end of the 2010 season, you could make a preliminary forecast by determining exactly where Brown ranks among a preliminary class of players with less than one Year of Service (172 Days of Service) who are expected to stick with the big club in 2011 and 2012. Players brought up for the first time after April 15th, 2010 would be in this group. Stanton will be in this group, but Heyward will not since he has been on the Braves’ roster all season. Of course, the rankings will change over the next two years as players get sent down.

  50. LarryM – Under the CBA, a player must accumulate 6 Years of Service to become a free agent. A Year of Service is defined as 172 Days of Service on the major league roster during the regular season. Time on the DL or under suspension counts towards Days of Service. For this purpose, the regular season begins on the date when the first two teams play the first regular season game; and the regular season ends on the date when the last two teams play the last regular season game.

    Days of Service over two or more regular seasons can be accumulated to obtain a single Year of Service. In any single regular season, a player cannot accumulate more than 172 Days of Service.

    A player brought up for the first time on either April 15 or April 16, 2010 could not accumulate a Year of Service in 2010. Since Heyward has been on the Braves’ roster for all of 2010, he will become a free agent after the 2015 season. Had he been kept in the minors until April 15 or 16, he would not become a FA until after 2016.

    Assuming Brown sticks with the Phils, he will become a FA after the 2016 season. If he stays on the big league roster the rest of this season, Brown will accumulate 67 Days of Service in 2010. To delay his free agency until after the 2017 season, the Phils would have to keep Brown in the minors next year until some time after mid-June. You’d have to look at the 2011 regular season schedule to determine the exact date in June.

    The same definition of a Year of Service is used to determine arbitration eligibility. Three Years of Service or between two and three Years of Service for Super Twos.

  51. For those interested, the CBA uses the terminology “day of Major League service” and “year of Major League service”.

  52. I don’t know how many of you get the south philly review. Interesting article on Biddle who played for the senators a south philly team, put together by koplove father. Really good players, a lot of times people on here go by number. believe too much. For example to me its hard to judge Biddle numbers, when he admits, he isnt throwing his curve, only fastball and change ups, working on developing off speed stuff. so its hard to judge these kids strickly on numbers, villar has a lot of errors, yet scouts say he is going to be a good fielder, you see 41 errors and say he cant field. not true must take into accounts fields might be really bad, he is young could be homesick, there are a lot of factors beside numbers to evaluate a player. The late jake ODONNELL told me that when, he used to run the homerun derby in south philly for kids who played for the sabres syaa and dv. I played the field while the kids took there turns, after it was over he said to me dont call us we will call you, made me laugh, i was terrible that day.catching balls. he was always at neumann and southern.and we used to talk nice guy.

  53. Rizzoti has been walked 16 times the past 9 games.

    I’m going to say they’re pitching around him….

  54. Mario Hollands threw 5 hitless innings in Williamsport. In his last 16 innings hes given up 4 hits and 0 ER.

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