July 21 Discussion

Daily Discussion

I won’t even bother with the box scores. All anyone is going to discuss are the trade rumors surrounding Jayson Werth and Roy Oswalt and whoever else. So just have a go, no using fighting it.

106 thoughts on “July 21 Discussion”

  3. Lisalberto Bonilla had another great outing yesterday. All of his peripherals other than HR rate are absolutely fantastic, and HR rate could be due to a lot of factors, so I’m not too worried about it. I’d like to see him in Lakewood next season.

    What, was I supposed to talk about trades that we’ll have no influence on? They’ll happen when they happen, guys.

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  6. Rico, just curious. If all those guys stay, who goes? Gose has got to be one. I’d say Houston is going to want three players at least. I can’t think of the other two that would be attractive if I’m not picking from your group.

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  7. 2 of May, Valle, Gose, Gilles, JC Ramirez could be packaged with JA Happ. Or a prospect or 2 is fetched for Jayson Werth and then are sent with 1 or 2 of of the names given for Oswalt.

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  8. The Werth-Oswalt deal is not close according to sources. Happ is or was being heavily shopped for a trade. Speaking of Happ, acording to trainer Moyer’s injury looks like Happ’s he is going to the DL by the way. Fun times and big moves are coming.

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  9. Kyle Kendrick must be the luckiest man on earth. A #6 pitcher who is no better than Nelson Figueroa. Someone gets injured every time the dirt is about to be shoveled on him.

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  10. Phillies might not have to give up any prospects. It looks like it will be a 3-team deal with werth going to an unnamed team and that team would send prospects to houston, while houston would ship us Roy oswalt.

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  11. Or Sheilds from Tampa in that trade mix. The Phils want a starter they control more than this year. Sheilds, Haren, Oswalt.

    Can someone take Blanton, my patience is wearing thin and I’ve been a big supporter for him.

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  12. It would be fantastic if Ruben could make this a deal like the Lee-Halladay trades. We could trade Brown, Colvin, and Cosart to Houston for Roy Oswalt, and then trade Werth to another team for prospects that will never amount to anything 😐

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  14. If Jayson won’t sign long term with us, he should be traded. I’m sure they’ll get someone who is much more valuable than the 2 draft picks they’d get in compensation…IF they offer him arbitration. I’d prefer Dan Haren by far the most. You can’t win playoff series with just one ace.

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  15. I would like to trade Charlie Manuel and a player never to be named for 2 cases of beer. It doesn’t even have to be good beer.

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  17. I would definitely look into Fausto Carmona. He is 26, a sinkerballer and has enough options in his contract to keep him til 2014. I think a package of Trevor May, Jonathon Villar, Anthony Gose, and JC Ramirez could possibly get him.

    We could then trade Werth for a prospect at any position

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  18. I assume that any Werth trade would immediately be followed by a promotion of Brown. Without that, how does that trade make any sense?

    Once the Lee trade occurred, I became suspicious of Amaro. Now, I am on the verge of actively disliking him as a GM. Although the team is doing a nice job of developing young players, they are doing a pretty bad job of slowly, but surely, adding talent through the farm system. You can’t keep trading all of your young talent for veteran players if you don’t have nearly an endless stream of money to correct your mistakes (and, as we have seen, the Phils spend a lot, but their resources are not endless). Sooner or later, it comes back to haunt you. With the team beginning to age, we are seeing the effects of that strategy this year. Even worse is when you do not develop and clear succession plan and you do something like trade away a star pitcher who you have under contract for reasonable terms for a year (Lee), only to have to trade for another star pitcher mid-year who will probably cost you a lot more. It is hard for a team that lurches from move to move the way the Phillies have over the last year or so to be successful over a long period of time – not impossible, but very difficult. Even the Yankees didn’t do crazy things a few years ago when they missed the playoffs.

    The best teams often add premium experienced talent through FA or trades, but they build a base and keep costs under control by promoting young players. This is how you become a dynasty. This is how teams like the Cardinals and Red Sox contend ever year. Even though the Cardinals traded for Holiday last year, look at all of the hot talent that they’ve promoted in the last year or two – it’s amazing. Now compare them to the Phillies. The last really good player we promoted was Cole Hamels in 2006. 2006! That’s not good.

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  19. Have to say I’m buying into the Riz. This isn’t sample size any more. He’s definetely getting a shot in the bigs at some point. I’m not making any predictions as to how good he’ll be, but he’ll get a chance somewhere somehow. Hope he does well with it. It’s great to see a guy hold on that long and then have his break-out. Sets a good example for those coming in with high hopes that have struggled their first few seasons.

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  20. If it ends up being Werth to Tampa, Tampa prospects to Houston and Oswalt to Philly….I’d be okay with that. As long as its also not prospects from Philly to Houston too…that would suck. If we’re taking on $16 million in salary we should get teh same quality of prospects we got when we dumped Abreu/Lidle for salary relief.

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  21. ****Have to say I’m buying into the Riz. This isn’t sample size any more. ****

    He’s starting to feel real at this point…even with his age and level. He’s not succeeding in Reading, he’s dominating in Reading.

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  23. I hear the Happ trade talk and it makes no sense at all. To be traded he would have to be healthy. If he is healthy we need him. Its just that simple. For whatever reason he gets no respect form management. Blanton and his fat butt on the other hand gets a three year contract.
    They should of closed the offices after the WS gone on a vacation
    until August. Every day the team gets sicker and sicker.

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  24. Agree on Riz. I wanted to see this continue for a while, but I think this is now the reality. I love that he’s taking walks and still managing to produce. Shows that even though pitchers are trying to limit the stuff in the zone to him, he still waits for his pitch and hits it. That kind of patience and adjustment bodes well going forward. There’s still the position issue, but if the bat is real then they’ll find a place for him to play.

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  25. Similar feelings on Rizzotti. There are two things holding me back (which are related):

    1. His LD% is much higher this year than in the past (though he has improved every year):
    2007: 13.5%
    2008: 14.2%
    2009: 16.6%
    2010: 22.7%

    2. His BABIP is much higher this year than in the past:
    2007: .360
    2008: .356
    2009: .310
    2010: .408

    In addition, as has been noted elsewhere, his power is being helped by Reading’s stadium as his SLG is 724 at home (558 on the road). His rate of infield flies to total fly balls is also much lower this year, especially at home.

    I generally tend to believe that minor leaguers can get better, so I am definitely holding out hope that he is for real and this is the new Rizzotti. Indeed, minorleaguesplits.com says that if one neutralizes park and luck factors he would still have an OPS of 927. Still, such marked improvement after three years of fairly consistent results keeps one of my feet off the bandwagon.

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  26. I’m okay with the deal(s) assuming:
    (1) They get a starting pitcher for a reasonable price that they can control next year (at least). Oswalt’s contract is a little higher than I’d like, but he qualifies.
    (2) No loss of our top 4 prospects, unless we get an equivelent prospect in the Werth deal. And ideally no loss of prospects at all (i.e., a 3 team deal). I think this is possible given that there doesn’t seem to be any (or much) interest in Oswalt aside from the Phillies. Or, in the alternative, we give up no more than we get in terms of prospects.
    (3) Obviously, Brown comes up to replace Werth.

    People who bring the Lee trade up in this context are being silly. Even assuming that this trade would “prove” that the Lee trade was a mistake, that says nothing about the wisdom of this trade.

    And as for Catch22’s points, the Phillies so far, through luck or design, seem to have avoided trading away real difference makers in the Amaro years, though obviously the jury is still out on some of the players traded. And there’s nothing about the current possible deals that is problematic in that regard (well, there could be, but it depends upon who gets traded). Yeah, in Oswalt they would be taking on a fair amount of money for the next 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 years, but if they don’t have to give up too much in the way of prospects (on net), then so what? They really could use a top starting pitcher under control for the next couple of years to bridge the gap to the potential aces in “A” ball.

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  27. Unless Eddy is putting in some serious coin into the trade I don’t see Oswalt coming here. Right now next year without Werth being resigned, Moyer leaving etc the Phillies already have 135 mll committed. Add in 16 mill for Oswalt and you are now at 151 mill, more than the ownership group of this team would approve.

    My guess, is the Phillies get a guy like Ben Sheets in a three way deal where Werth goes to the Sox, Yanks or Rays. No prospects leave from the Phillies, so they don’t “hurt” there farm system.

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  29. Werth > Oswalt in my opinion.

    This doesn’t have to be a 3-way deal. The Phillies should get the best value they can for Werth, then promote Brown. After (or before), look into trading for strating pitching (Oswalt, Carmona). In my opinion, there is absolutely no reason the two trades need to be related. If Amaro plays his cards right I think we could end up with Brown replacing Werth, Oswalt, AND better prospects than we have today. We’ll see what happens.

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  30. Rizzoti:

    (1) I think it’s certainly fair to say that the longer he hits like this, the More “real” he becomes. But
    (2) It still doesn’t mean that his previous performance is thrown entirely out the window; afterall, the power still wasnt there even earlier this year.
    (3) His BA is just not sustainable over the long term. IMO he still doesn’t project to a .300 hitting in the majors. And
    (4) He is still a poorly fielding First baseman. Give the Phillies some credit – if he were capable of playing the outfield, he would be playing some there, and if he were a good defensive first baseman, he would be playing regularly there, not DHing much of the time.

    Now, all of THAT said, I’ve always been a tad more optimistic about him than PP, and another few weeks of stellar play just increases that optimism. I would still be shocked if he turned into a ML star – but even an average or slightly above average ML regular at 1B is a valuable commodity – especially for his pre-arb years. But he STILL isn’t likely to bring much in trade, and Howard is parked at 1B for the next 20 years. Okay, I exagerate, but you get the point. He IS the kindof guy that SOMEONE should (and eventually probably will) give a shot at a regular 1B job. And I now predict that, if/when given that shot, he’ll probably do well enough to keep the job for a couple/few years (maybe being switched to DH fairly early on, though).

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  31. Also, adding to my point, if this IS a 3-way deal in which Werth, Oswalt, and prospects are involved you HAVE to look at the deal as if we traded OUR prospects for Oswalt, becasue that is the value that we are giving up, and the prospects we could have if he just deal Werth. This idea that “this trade is different becasue we end up ‘even'” just isn’t correct.

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  32. “Werth > Oswalt in my opinion. ”

    Maybe. But is 1/2 a year of Werth worth more than 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 years of Oswalt? Lot’s of people are saying that Oswalt’s “expensive” contract is making it hard to deal him, so maybe the perception is that those extra years don’t increase Oswalt’s value. But, as sceptical as I am about paying starting pitchers mega bucks, Oswalt’s deal to me looks like a (slightly) below market deal.

    But I hope you are right.

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  33. Very good points on Riz, Boston Phan. I don’t pretend to be an expert, but his BABIP really seems unsustainably high.

    I bet you your well reasoned argument for guarded optimism will still be declared Rizzotti bashing.

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  34. Jared,

    Well, yes and no. Do the Phillies even make the Werth deal without making the Oswalt (or other SP) deal? I guess they could, but I don’t see them doing it. It would look too much like throwing in the towel on this year. Which frankly might be justified, but wouldn’t go over well. And while the Oswalt deal does have to make sense on it’s merits, at the same time I’ll feel much better about it if there is no NET loss of prospects.

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  36. What’s the deal with Fausto Carmona? Is Cleveland asking for too much? He’s a young, inexpensive, controllable No. 2 or 3..

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  37. We could end some speculation on THE RIZ if they would send him to Lehigh. You have to admit that would be interesting.
    I wonder if the brick that Bump laid wasn’t related to the fact that he knew he wasn’t called up. If so he screwed himself/

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  38. Prediction:

    Happ goes to Houston for Oswald (Houston is salary dumping and will still pay some of Oswald’s Salary.

    Gose to Oakland for Sheets.

    Werth to Tampa Bay for Minor Leaguers or Davis or Brignac.

    Brown and Mayberry up from Lehigh Valley.

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  39. Bump is now a Reading Phillie, and Michael Cisco to LVIP.

    Above trade seems like a bit too much money for Philly to Pay, and Why Mayberry, esp. with the add of Brignac.

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  40. Man the phillies must really be sure riz cant play the outfield. Its a shame this kid is making us all believe, with his numbers if he could play a decent left, brown in right, nice bats,

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  41. Werth with his .160ish BA with RISP looks like he is totally lost at the plate and in the field. I keep reading that it is unlikely the big club would be able to sign due to what his contract demands would be. So, time to send him to another club and get some return for next year.

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  42. On a side note, anyone have any updates on Scott Frazier signing? I feel like he’s this year’s Brody Colvin.

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  43. Werth to Tampa for either Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson. I’d rather have them for 5-6 years then 1.5 of Oswalt.

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  44. I think the season has taken too strong a turn for the bad to be buyers. If we get prospects for Werth, we should keep them.

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  45. Is there any possible way that the Phils could end up with Oswalt, Brignac and B.J. Upton in a 3 way deal here without giving up top end minor league guys. The Rays have expressed a desire to part ways with Upton and they have Desmond Jennings who I believe is ready to come up so suddenly you get a guy who can be a real threat from the right side in Upton to pair with Brown coming up and Brignac to play 2nd while Utley recovers and eventually take Rollins spot when he leaves.

    I think you could get all 3 guys for Werth, Gose, Rizzotti, and May (with maybe a Yohan Flande type throw in) and I don’t think you’d be significantly overpaying plus you’d have players locked in.

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  46. There is one overriding fact that, in my opinion, must be accepted with respect to Rizzotti. If he is ever to play for the Phillies, it must be in left field. At some point, when the Phillies finally accept the possibility that he may be for real, I’m sure they will explore this possibility. The problem so far has been that the organization appears to have been harder to convince of his potential than most of the readers of this blog used to be. I expect that when the season is over, the experiment will begin and if it is decided that if won’t work, he will be traded.

    Personally, as if have stated previously, I think that any major league player can play left field. But, maybe I’m wrong.

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  47. It has been proven many times that “any” ML player cannot play LF, which is why some guys with decent bats end up as DH’s in the AL, at 1b, or out of baseball all-together.

    In the end, 1b is the real position of last resort and based on his playing time, it doesn’t appear that the organization thinks his defense is even good enough to stay there. Now they may be wrong in that assessment but you can’t just assume he can play LF because anyone can play LF.

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  48. Hellickson looks like a really nice pitching prospect. who is ready for the majors. Granted I only saw him in the prospect game, but he look really good.

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  49. The Riz has a classically bad body & barely looks athletic enough to play first. I would not waste a lot of time imagining a future for him in the outfield. That said, he’s made all the plays at first when I’ve seen him this year & he is looking more and more like a big league hitter.

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  50. There’s no way the Phils could get Hellickson in a trade for Werth. They are more likely to get a guy like Wade Davis or maybe even Matt Garza. TB is probably going to fill the Davis spot with Hellickson.

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  51. With Tampa, if we would get Wade Davis or Hellickson from Tampa AND Brignac in exchange for Werth + throw in I would be very happy. Then bring up Brown, Happ, and Tampa pitcher. Put Brignac in for Utley until he returns. DFA Ransom.

    Unless Ed Wade eats part of all of Oswalt’s salary, I don’t think Astros trade is plausible. Unless they get Myers. LOL.

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  52. Drew you might be 100% right but, yesterday I was reading about tampa bay, this year is there shot, next season they must cut payroll, below 60 million, so they might do it for a shot at a title if they think werth gives them that?

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  53. Happ’s been taken off the LV roster. Not sure it he’s reporting to Philly, or a trade is about to happen.

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  54. Having been fleeced by the idiots in Seatttle, Ruben seems deadset on being fleeced by Ed Wade.

    Left field for the Phils has always been the depository of big men. Del Ennis, the Bull etc. Lets see we need a right handed bat, Oh the Riz is right handed. How bad can he be?

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  55. I am not sure why Readings ballpark is mentioned in the Rizz discussions. Wouldn’t CBP fit that same mold? So the point is, why even mention the difference in parks?

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  56. nowheels, what evidence, EXACTLY, is there that Amaro is going to give up too much for Oswalt? There aren’t even any RUMORS at this point of specific names being considered. The only evidence you have is … the Lee deal? Seems kind of weak, especially given his record on other deals.

    Also curious why you think that Rizz could possibly play LF, aside from wishful thinking. Adam Dunn seems a good comparison. Yeah, they tried him in the OF and it was a disaster. And for all we know (the Phillies obviously know more, and I have no reason not to trust their judgment) Rizz may be LESS well equipped to play the OF.

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  57. We will see Larry. BTW did you object to my opposition to the Lee trade in 500 words or more.

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  58. see, nowheels, that’s the one thing I don’t get. Yeah, my posts can be wordy. But making ARGUMENTS, as opposed to merely stating unsupported opinions, takes a lot of words. Not always, but usually. And my goodness, no offense to him, but PP is the king of the long post – and yet you keep coming back here to read his analysis.

    You’re right that “we’ll see” about the the potential OSwalt deal. It just bugs me that so many people here ASSUME that Amaro is going to screw up – despite an OVERALL record on trades that’s pretty good. OTOH, I kind of understand not giving him the benefit of the doubt on contract negotiations, where his record isn’t so hot.

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  60. Trading for Oswalt has a lot of future implications, not just 2010’s second half. Brown comes up and gets his feet wet and will have less growing pains in 2011. We also control Oswalt into 2011 with an option on 2012. Once Oswalt is gone our highly touted pitching prospects should be ready to join the rotation in 2012 or 2013.

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  61. If Oswalt’s deal is slightly below market for the rest of this year and all of next year, that says alot about how grossly below market value Cliff Lee’s deal was for this year.

    Larry – I was away from the site for a week so never got a chance to respond to your point about Victorino’s and Ruiz’s deals. I was mistaken and you are correct about the fact that they bought out one year of arbitration with Shane and have an option to do the same with Carlos. I like those deals, but as I said, those guys didn’t have a lot of leverage. But decent moves in my opinion by Amaro getting them locked up for a few years at reasonable salaries.

    I’m hoping to be proven wrong, but I fully expect Ruben to completely screw this up. I think his past track record of ML player evaluation makes it more likely than not. As Buster Olney wrote today, I think an Oswalt trade and the promotion of Brown are more about next year than anything else. It should be an exciting next few weeks (trade wise if not on the field).

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  62. If Happ was dropped from the AAA roster it would not surprise me if he’s going back on the DL. That aside I just can’t see them trading Werth in order to play Brown, there would just be too many lefties in that lineup.

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  63. LarryM – I agree that the Amaro trades are a mixed bag and one’s overall opinion is largely dependent on what you think of the Lee trade to Seattle.

    However, for me, the reason why I’m hesitant to trust Amaro is the sense I get from his overall thinking towards running a baseball team. You mention his contract negotiations and I think his poor track record there (Ibanez, Howard, Baez, Polonco (IMO one year too many), ect…) combined with his disparaging comments towards the new methods of player evaluation point to a GM that doesn’t assign correct values to the assets he has and the assets he is targeting.

    This doesn’t mean that he will definitely screw up a trade, but it does make me leery of trusting his future moves and prefer that he just puts a lid on the season.

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  68. there is no way the phils trade for Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson. that is not how they operate. they like veterans, not rookies/prospects. if they are buyers, they are going after a proven veteran. their first choice is to do a Lee type trade (i.e. Oswalt). second options are a blanton type trade (i.e. Jeremy Guthrie or Ben Sheets). but they will not go after Davis or Hellickson unless they turn into sellers. which i don’t think that they want to do with this payroll.

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  69. It’s interesting that none of the rumors regarding Oswalt and Werth mention any Phillies prospects being traded. We’ll see.

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  70. @PPFan – I think most were thinking that Davis or Hellickson would be used to finalize a trade with Houston for Oswalt because of the lack of pitching prospects at AA/AAA level in the Phils’ system.

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  72. Well I don’t think there is any way that the Rays would part with Hellickson, but Wade Davis is probably available because they want to open a spot for Hellickson and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Phils grab Davis in a potential deal such that they would be building for the short term by getting Oswalt and also long term with Davis (who would probably be our 4th best starter behind Oswalt in that scenario anyway) so if you can get him I don’t think the Phils would say no we don’t want him.

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  74. My feeling is that if the Phillies were to get Davis from the Rays, the Phils would have to include him in a deal to Houston for Oswalt — that is, unless you want to part with Cosart or Colvin. I do like the idea of trying to get BJ Upton in a deal though.

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  75. i was just going to comment on Figueroa. I wonder if they were not able to pull him back in time under the circumstances they certainly could have used him on the big club. Is this just a wink and nod move? Like he is unofficially part of a trade

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  76. Dan,

    I dunno about Hyatt but I too thought he was supposed pitch today. Anyways, Sanchez is really pitching well. 5 innings 2 hits 0 runs 0 BBs 5 Ks so far.

    I think it’s time to consider promoting Sanchez and Hyatt, not sure who is more deserving between the 2 as both are pitching really well.

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  77. BA has an article up with scout’s comments about our lakewood and clearwater guys. After reading that and hearing them gush on their most recent pod-cast, I’d be really upset to see these guys go.

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  78. cat: I did not see that article from the Post before. Thank you for posting. Rizzotti sounds like a good guy who has been working hard. Hopefully, he will have an opportunity at the ML level. Unfortunately, the Phils are not likely to have a spot for him as a fielder. It might be bench player for Phils or trade to another team as the only options.

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  80. @Pablo … it is subsribers only, I’m afraid. It has high praise for Colvin. The scout says in the game he watched Colvin was sitting 91-94 with his fastball but was able to amp it up to 95-96 when he got in trouble in the 7th inning. Says Villar has “ridiculous range and easy actions.” Also praise for Hyatt, who the scout says is developing nicely. Worth reading if you subscribe.

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  81. My guess is Werth to Tampa Bay and Happ to Houston with Oswalt and Wade Davis to us with two more big prospects from Tampa going to Houston. Also, with Houston eating some of Oswalt’s salary.
    Anyone notice that Dom played LF last night with mayberry in RF??? Who knows what that means. Maybe they’ll trade Werth and Mayberry and Gload will get first crack at RF saving Dom for a Sept call up.

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  82. mlb trade rumors said that if the phills move werth it will open up a spot for brown to play this year

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  83. I’d really like to hear what Tampa prospects are being discussed. There’s quite a few I’d rather keep than flip for Oswalt.

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  84. There will be no “rent-a-player” moves made by the Phillies unless it is Werth leaving.
    Next year’s pitching staff has at least 2 openings in the rotation and the bullpen needs to be addressed again. This should be Amaro’s focus now to at least keep the team competitive. The lineup tweaks will have to wait for next year with the outfield the offseason focus. If you trade Werth you can audition Brown or Mayberry until September when you can add them both as well as others from the farm.

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  85. Id say Oswalts 2012 option at 16 million is extremely attractive for the Phillies. In 2012 that could be almost 8 million below market value.

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  86. bob_m — I’m not sure if you are being sarcastic about the 2012 market value item you posted, if possible could you elaborate on why you think MV for a guy like Oswalt could be 24mm in 2012?

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  87. Time for a comic interlude … one of the funniest questions ever on a BA chat …

    Jason (Walnut Creek, CA): Considering the Lack of power hitting seen in the Majors this year, I am really surprised teams are not beating down the Phillies door to obtain John Mayberry. The former First Rounder and Stanford alum has always hit for decent Power stats, albeit with low batting averages. However, since he can also play First Base, do you see the Phillies trading him at the Deadline to get a 2nd Baseman or Starting pitcher?

    Jim Callis: He can’t hit. That’s why noboby is beating down the Phillies’ door. If he played every day in the majors, he’d strike out 200+ times. He’s a toss-in at best in a trade.

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  89. Indeed, although I think Carpenter actually wen to AAA.

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  91. Happ may be traded. also, the Phillies will need 2 arms. I think it’s a wait-and-see thing. Ironpigs rep said Happ was taken off the roster, but not to report to Philly as of yet.

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  93. Nowheels, by all accounts Rizzotti is a left-handed batter (and thrower), so he would not provide the right-handed power bat that the Phillies need, even if they could play him in left field.

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  95. Drew … Oswalt tells MLB.com that the Astros have not approached him about a deal yet, so it doesn’t seem like he’s making contractual demands at this point. Any idea what they mean by the 2011 option? He’s already signed through 2011 with a club option for 2012. The club can buy him out for $2 million after the 2011 season, or he can opt out after 2011 if he takes a reduced buyout figure.

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  96. Just saw the Jayson Stark rumor … he says trade talks are bogging down over Oswalt’s demand that the club pick up his 2012 option.

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  97. Stark:

    “According to one source who has spoken with both clubs, the rest of the deal likely would be built around prospects who are further from the majors. The current edition of Baseball America reports that “no team has more talent in A ball than the Phillies.” And it’s believed the Astros would get one or two players from that prospect pool.

    Teams that have spoken with the Phillies say they have rebuffed all attempts to include in any deal their top hitting prospects, Triple-A outfielder Domonic Brown or Class A first baseman Jonathan Singleton. And an elbow injury to their top pitching prospect, Jarred Cosart, apparently has removed him from any current trade talks as well.”

    Colvin should be included in that list…

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  99. Thanks for the Riz correction. I got overexcited.The Del Ennis thing got me confused.
    After all I am old and overheated.

    If Oswalt comes here and Happ leaves will that be 60 mil for starters next year?

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  102. By the way I had the chance to sit behind home plate at Petco park a couple of weeks back and watched Matt Latos and Oswalt go at each other, Latos is great, but Oswalt was also dominating.

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  104. Just some food for thought: Could the Cosart “elbow injury”, which we’ve heard described as nothing serious even by Dr. James Andrews (right?), be a way of keeping him out of trade talks?

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  105. BostonPhan, Skunky, PP: Please educate me on BABIP and LD%. I really don’t read deeply and extensively about these stats, only what I see here. Here is my current understanding:

    –BABIP can be a measure of luck, but does not necessarily reflect 100% luck.

    –LD% is straightforward, just a measure of how many of your batted balls are roughly on a line, compared to grounders and fly balls (balls judged to have significant arc and hang time). So it’s part of the measure of how often you are hitting the ball hard (many ground and fly balls are hit hard too).

    So my confusion is this:

    1. If my LD% goes up, that means I am hitting the ball way better, right? The recent article on Rizzotti, for example, reported his grueling workouts over the winter and desire to give this season everything he had, knowing he did not have a lot of window left as a prospect. His physical improvement and confidence seem to have made him a far better hitter. That’s just my intuitive understanding.

    2. When LD% goes up, BABIP should go up. Again, that’s intuitive, not rocket science. So when BABIP goes up a lot as a result of LD% going up, that would seem to cancel at least some of the luck factor. In fact, if LD% went up a lot, and BABIP went down, stayed the same, or went up only s little, would not that be a measure of bad luck?

    3. When LD% goes down, stays the same, or goes up just a tad, and BABIP goes way up, that’s a clear case of luck.

    Anyway, what’s wrong with my intuitive understanding? It doesn’t seem to jibe with comments I see here at times.

    Thanks in advance.

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  106. With all the belly-aching the front office does about keeping this team competitive 5 years out (hence the “reason” for the Lee trade), trading Happ as part of a deal for Oswalt makes absolutley no sense at all. The kid was the best starter not named Lee on the staff last year and he won’t make big bucks for a long long time. Not sure Ruben is the answer.

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