July 1 Discussion

Daily Discussion

Just a note, the international signing period opens up on July 2nd. I don’t expect the Phillies to be major players, but a few $250K-$500K guys are possible. If I find stuff on that, I’ll make a dedicated post. If you see any articles, feel free to send them to me via email. Now, last night’s boxes

GCL Phillies lost 3-1.
Williamsport won 4-1.
Lakewood won 3-2.
Clearwater won 4-0.
Reading lost 6-5.
Lehigh Valley won 6-4.

Quick note. Jarred Cosart is on the 7 day DL with a “minor elbow strain”. I wouldn’t get too upset about this yet, there’s a good chance its just a minor soreness thing. Better safe than sorry.

125 thoughts on “July 1 Discussion”

  1. Pick your best pitching performance:

    Hyatt 6IP, 4 H, 0 R, 9K (CLW)
    Pettis 7IP, 1 H, 0 R, 9K,, 9-3 GO-FO (Wmsprt)
    Knigge 4 2/3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 8K 2 BB, 4-0 GO-FO (GCL)

    Rupp must have read some of the comments from the last few days. He went 2-3, with 3 RBIs, 1R.
    Brown continues to make a case for call-up: 3-4, 2B, HR and 3 RBIs.

    Concerning stat: Hewitt has 96Ks to 97 total Bases. That’s alarming. Only Bocock, Mintken and Santana are worse (with significant ABs). Santana is 3 years younger and has a .341 OBP to .275 for Hewitt.

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  2. I for one always wait until a kid unpacks his bags, to knock him. Good work Rupp.

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  3. Dom Brown…incredible right now…he keeps this up Phils will have to trade Ibanez next yr to open up room…Phils getting some good starts by Hyatt, Shreve, and Pettis. Phillies have a lot of good young arms at Lakewood and below.

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  4. lets let the Phils worry about Werth before we start talking about Ibeanez being traded for Brown.

    It seems like every time he gets bumped a level his numbers just get better, although this could be getting ahead of myself since he has made less that 50 AAA plate appearances.

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  5. Nobody is going to trade for Ibanez, unless the Phillies eat a major part of his salary. If that’s the case, what’s the point? Anyways, Brown will be playing RF, Werth is going to walk into FA.

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  6. I know he’s repeating A+ and he’s old for the league but I’m happy with the season Naughton is putting together. I mean he just keeps getting on base.

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  7. 3 games in – Pettis looks like a nice find in the 35th round.

    2-0, 17 IP, 1 BB, 20Ks, .53 ERA, .58 WHIP

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  8. Yeah, Naughton- DH’ed yesterday as Kennelly caught, 1-1 with a Double and 3 Walks, No Strikeouts. Season BA at .341. Has done most all of the catching lately as Kennelly has played 3B. Must be sound defensively for getting this playing time. Maybe he raises his status and could be placed back on the 40 man roster this offseason. One would think he would be better now than when they first placed him on it 2 years back, right?

    Eric Pettis seems to be giving the best performance of any of the College Pitching Draftees, with an honorable mention to Tyler Knigge and Marshall Shuler. Who would bet on any of them having better Professional Careers than Percival Garner or Mario Hollands?

    Nobody was criticizing Rupp, but merely recounting his very early season performances or lack thereof. These guys should not be reading this stuff anyhow. Lenny Dykstra said he never read anything, not even a newspaper cause it might mess up his batting eye. There is a guy who made it to the top, whose example they could follow.

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  9. The Phils will have to eat a significant amount of Ibanez’s contract but there will be some AL teams needing of/dh. This will be like when the Phils wanted Howard to move up and traded Thome. I definately hope they lock up Werth by the end of the year.

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  10. Marfis,
    Not sure why I bother, however, r u really serious that you believe that Marshall Shuler will have a better professional career ten Percy Garner based on his TWO outings thus far.

    Wont even touch the Dykstra issue. I could have too much fun with that.

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  14. Read what I said again , I did not say that any of those pitchers would have a better career than the other. I asked who would bet on Pettis, Knigge , or Shuler having a better career than Garner or Hollands.

    Dykstra – I did not given an opinion on the status of Dykstra as a thinker or a businessman or a person, even, merely pointing out his correct assessment that a professional athlete should not clutter up their mind or stress their eyes with unnecessary reading or intellectualization and such, especially in forums such as this one, in which many of the contributors seem to be found short in the level of background information in order to make accurate assessments and/or mental acuity.

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  16. Let’s give Garner some leeway here. Perhaps he is one of these college guys who was overused and needs his arm to bounce back. Either way, we are looking at a microscopic sample here.

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  17. Garner was mostly a football player that throws in the mid 90s. Think of him as closer to a high school prospect that simply has not pitched much. I think the Phillies took him knowing that he might need 5 years in the minors to develop. Perhaps he was a little too risky to be drafted where he was – but that pick was all about stuff and not about immediate results.

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  18. and btw Marfis, Naughton throws out 12% of baserunners….ur own personal “intellectualzation” never ceases to amaze.

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  19. The difference between Thome then and Ibanez now is huge. Thome could still play an adequate 1st base, he was 35, he was a known HR hitter, and he was still productive. Ibanez is 3 years older, not a HR hitter, and not productive. From some of the announcers this year, they have commented that his bat looks slow. Any AL team could probably pick up a player off the scrap heap and his numbers would be comparable to Ibanez over the same amount of time i.e. Pat Burrell in SF.

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  20. Per the outfield situation for next year, I think the Phillies should just let Werth walk if he asks for the 5 year $17-18M per year deal and allocate resources elsewhere. Then let Domonic Brown play RF everyday, and have Ibanez and Francisco platoon. Sure, we’ll have Utley-Howard-Brown-Ibanez (4 lefties) hitting in the middle of the lineup, but who cares if the opposing pitcher is a righty?

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  23. I agree as well. We can’t afford to get boxed in on another highest market value contract on Werth. Offer arb, get the picks. If you don’t like Francisco as a platoon partner for Ibanez, there will surely be a cheap older righty OF who will be available.

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  24. Are you guys crazy? They can’t replace Werth’s bat in free agency or in minor leagues. That would be a a big loss. D. Brown will hopefully be a great player, but in the short run i doubt he will match Werth’s production.

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  25. If Brown can hit lefties like Utley it would help big time. I’m all for trying to get Dan Haren likes being talked about if they can’t sign Werth. Mine as well load up on pitching.

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  26. If the Haren talks are serious, I would think the packages have to include either Cosart or Singleton.

    Who would you rather lose?

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  27. For Haren in would honestly take both. I think it would take Cosart, Singleton, Gose and something else (Rizzotti?). Probably Happ too if he would healthy.

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  28. Glad to see Hyatt bounce back with a solid performance .
    Why not move Garcia up to Reading to get him ready with all the infield problems the big club is having . His has to be a better option than Bocock ?

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  33. I’m amazed there’s a site where guys know and care so much about the Phils minor leaguers! I tend to follow them more by rooting for the affiliates to win. But it’s a great source of info for we Phillie Phanatics. I live near Chicago so it’s Cubs/Sox land. But when the Phils come in-July 15-18- it’s great to see so many Phillie fans at Wrigley.

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  34. Don’t want Haren, he has a reputation as a bad guy. If we’re going to emty the farm again, might as well get Cliff Lee back.

    Hard to keep Brown down much longer; I would bet he’ll be up after the All Star break unless Ibanez catches fire.

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  35. I like Dan Haren, but I thought the Phillies couldn’t take on more salary. He’s not making chump change, at least $10M per year. And for sure he would cost us Cosart and other parts.

    Not sure if Dan Haren is going to put us over the top. I would rather not do this deal.

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  36. At this point, we cannot afford to trade for Haren. It is simply not worth it. We don’t need Haren, we just have to get healthy. It is not worth giving up a future ace in Cosart, a future stud hitter in Singleton, and perhaps a starting outfielder. We have 6 starters when healthy, and Madson is on his way back. Once our position players get healthy, we will be fine. We are a second half team anyway so we shouldn’t worry. Also, it is ridiculous how much Amaro depleted this system. He should have overpaid for Lee a little bit. We could have signed him for a 4 year, 90 million extension. That is a little more than Halladay, but it would’ve saved us Taylor, Drabek, and D’Arnaud. Taylor would come up with Brown next year and Werth and Ibanez would be easily replaced. Instead, we might have to pay Werth 15 million a year or more. By trying to save money with Halladay, you could possibly lose all of it and more by signing Werth. That is just being a bad GM with no foresight.

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  37. Dear Drew, The problem with your (4) lefties in a row is the late innings when we will get loogy’d to death. It will never work. You have to split the lineup better

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  38. What would it take to get a solid utility guy like Ty wigginton? Would rizzoti and berry do it?

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  40. ****So would you not make a play for Haren?****

    No, I wouldn’t. I’d, if I really felt we needed another pitcher, aim for a Blanton type trade at most and bank on Halladay/Hamels in a short series. There are too many other issues and payroll constraints to mortgage what’s left of the farm for a marginal improvement of our chances.

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  41. I can understand if you don’t want to make a trade for Haren because of pay/prospects….but because he’s a “Bad guy”? I’ve never heard that anywhere and he’s a top 10 pitcher over the last 4 years.

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  42. If we can get Haren and Wiggington/Kelly Jonhson, I’d feel much better about 2010 and beyond. Even if it means losing Werth, it will be the Dom show in 2011+.

    As things currently stand with Utley and Polanco out for a while, I’m almost ready to punt on 2010.

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  43. Utley will undergo surgery…so the need for a trade increases.

    Say goodbye to some prospects.

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  44. Since its going to be something like 2 months I hope we make a play for Uggla or Wigginton and not Jose Lopez.

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  46. Will the d- backs take blanton back and his 8.5 mill a yr deal in the trade? If so taking haren’s $ wouldn’t be a big deal. The phils would have to sweeten the pot with at the least a top prospect and a throw in guy.

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  47. Interesting thought on Blanton back…what’s the reasoning for the Dbacks to trade Haren? If they’re trying to cut salary, they’d save about $4 million a year doing that deal but take a big drop-off in ability between Haren (a #1) and Blanton (a #3 on a good day) for that savings. Not to mention, Blanton gets a raise to $10.5 million next year so its actually only a $2 million savings, not $4 like I thought. Sorry, just checked Cots to reconfirm it. Not much of a benefit for them unfortunately.

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  48. Haren signed a 4 year extension in 2008 and is signed through 2012 with a club option for 2013. $8.5 million in 2010, $12.75 million in 2011 and 2012, $15.5 million in 2013 or a $3.5 million buyout. He is 29 so you get him in his 29-32 years, and this all could drive up his asking price. http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_contract.aspx?sport=MLB&id=3711

    I got an email from a friend who is a huge Cards guy (and loves Haren and wants him there) this morning saying the Phils are opening up the farm except Brown and Singleton (“the kid raking in A ball”). Obviously a lot of stuff is rumors now, but it was what I was told. I would imagine the D-Backs would want someone profiling as a top of the rotation starter for him and more.

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  49. Cot has blanton at 8.5 for 2011 and 2012 and a mill this year. The d-backs would save about 12 mill. If the phils put cosart and a throw in guy ( Garcia or “the rizz”) that could get the deal done.

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  50. PP may want to start a trade deadline topic. This is going to be a hot topic for the next 15-30 days.

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  51. Attended yesterday’s 11 AM start at Lakewood. Here are some observations (from a huge fan but not an expert scout):

    1) Shreve was very solid. He gave up an unearned run (walk, 2 SB’s and an error) in the first and then settled in. Despite the run, he carried a no-hitter into the 7th where he gave up a solo HR. He only struck out 3 and wasn’t throwing overly hard. The gun seemed to be a little wacky (some pitches said 12 mph), but if it can be trusted, he sat mostly in the high 80’s. Can anyone tell me what his usual speed is?

    2) Singleton did not have a great game (not that you can read anything into one game). The Hagarstown starter was an undefeated (8-0) LHP named Clegg. He made Jonathan look bad the first two times up (strikeout on a one-handed half swing and a slow- hit DP grounder to 1st). Give Singleton credit though because his 3rd AB vs, Clegg he laced an RBI double in the right-center gap.

    3) I was impressed with Jiwan James. He had two clean base hits and roamed CF very gracefully. Before the game I asked him if he missed pitching, and he said, “Nah, not really.”

    4) I liked Villar a lot. He stole 2 bases easily and is very athletic in all facets.

    5) The Claws won in a strange bottom of the 9th. Schoenberger reached on a delayed wild pitch 3rd strike (he waited for the appeal to see if he swung, then bolted for 1st when it was deemed that he had). He went to 2nd on a balk, then 3rd on a single to right by Villar. Finally, he scored the winning run on a wild pitch!!!

    All in all a great game at the park. Will be seeing W-port 3 times soon and then a Reading/LV trip the week after. Gotta love summer.

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  52. I think we’ve all already explained Werth is more than signable. You back load a 5 year deal. Lidge and Ibanez’ contracts are up after 2011.

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  53. Not sure if this was mentioned anywhere but Cisco has apparently been moved up to Reading as he is projected starter tonight.

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  54. The only way That the phillies sign werth in my opinion is, they would have to unload ibanez and someone else like blanton to offset the money.

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  55. JoeDE, you are correct. I retract what I said about Haren being a bad guy; I think I had him confused with Erik Bedard. However, Haren is having a “bad” season for him, giving up 131 hits in 116 innings. If I’m going for it this year, I’ll take Lee. Longer term, Haren is signed for several more years for a lot less money than Lee is likely to get, but he is probably not going to be nearly as good.

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  56. The only untouchable on the farm is Dom Brown. Everyone else is trade bait. I would love to see them hang on to Cosart, Singleton, Colvin etc. but they will utilize these players to fill the many holes in the current big league lineup…………..hopefully with top shelf talent. No more middle of the road starters.

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  57. The should of moved up Garcia a month ago. While a long shot. He is better tha a no shot or someone who never could hit anywhere.

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  59. @DickAllen15, that’s when I’d PH for Ibanez with Francisco. Doing that would be comparable to what we have now in terms of LH vs RH. Right now: Utley-Howard-Werth-Ibanez If we do what I suggested, we’d have: Utley-Howard-Brown-Ibanez vs RHP and Utley-Howard-Francisco-Brown vs LHP (starting and relief). Again, we’d have the same number of LHB vs LHP that we have now. The only difference would be that Francisco would be in place of Werth (yes, a definite decrease), but also Brown for Ibanez (I think a solid increase considering how well Brown hits LHP).

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  60. Haren has regressed. He’s not the same pitcher he once was.
    It’s funny how the Phils are linked to Wigginton, who started out on fire and has done nothing since, and the Braves linked to Willingham, a much better player.
    This is what happens when you get clowns like Lamar and Amaro running the show. And Proefrock with his keen eye for Seattle talent. lol.

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  62. Why exactly do we need to add a new starter? By my count we have four and we have Happ ready to come off the DL. Pitching isn’t even close to our biggest problem, and trading for Dan Haren after trading away Cliff Lee is just ridiculous.

    I say if they make a trade they get a marginal infielder without giving up any of our top 4 prospects and hope the team stays afloat long enough for the return of Utley and their usual September dominance. With this lineup, by July 30th we might be sellers rather than buyers…

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  64. not to be a di-k but how does daily box scores thread relate to 200 posts of ibanez, werth and dan haren??how many times does the boss have to bring it up for it to sink in…there are plenty of major league sites to make those posts..

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  65. Skunky, the problem is that Happ isn’t ready and unless he improves both in velocity and especially command in his last rehab start, they will probably option him to the minors. I think they are getting kind of tired of Kendrick’s Jekyll-Hyde act. In addition, Hamels also looks shaky, a lot more like last year than the Hamels of ’07 and ’08 (compare his walks to innings ratios and his hits to innings ratios) Meanwhile, none of our starting pitching prospects are close to being ready for the majors. Of course, they also need to acquire an infielder that can hit a bit, with Utley out for a while, unless they decide that Ransom can do the job.

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  67. “none of our starting pitching prospects are close to being ready for the majors”.

    Carpenter is as ready for a shot has he ever will be. Most if you probably think that he is not a viable option and maybe you are right, but I’m not so sure. He is a reasonably successful pitcher in 3A and has never been given a real chance in the ML. His 3A record is as good as many of the pitchers that ultimately were successful in the ML. What do you think (remember, be nice).

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  68. Another hit and stolen base for Garcia. The minute this FSL hit streak is over, they have to send this guy to Reading. He is toying with the FSL.

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  69. Why bat Brown 6th? Don’t want to pressure him? I’d figure you’d want to get him as many AB’s as possible.

    IOW, I hate waiting for him to hit while I watch. 🙂

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  70. Lenny–
    I think Carpenter has continued to pitch like he deserves a shot in the majors, I just dont think this is the time as mid-season is here. A couple of starts in April is one thing, but throwing him in now, with the glut of offensive injuries, is a really tough situation.

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  71. Great at bat by Brown. Started off 0-2..fouled a bunch off and worked count to 2-2 before smacking a single up the middle off the mound.

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  75. Interesting to see Tim Kennelly in right field tonight for the first time this year in Clearwater. He has responded with a couple of hits including a homer. He is the starting right fielder for the Aussies in international play and it is his best position. With the injury to Schneider catching musicals chairs might take place again. Last year Tim was bumped up to Reading where he caught Brett Myers and Drabek. Interesting to see if he or Naughton go up to catch in Reading. Naughton has been bothered by injuries which might be affecting his defensive play but he is hitting well including a two run homer and 4 rbi’s tonight.

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  76. I realize it is too early to make a judgement about anything, but I have noticed that many of the signed 2010 draft picks have started poorly. You would figure there would at least be some kind of balance between the hot and the cold. It’s been almost all cold so far.

    Not saying it’s a big deal, just making the observation.

    Also, Kyrell Hudson has started off very slowly in Williamsport and Cody Overbeck still hasn’t been able to get it going in Reading.

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  78. With all do respect, I want no parts of Haren. He is a real good pitcher,don’t get me wrong. But we had the opportunity to have Lee for 9 mil. That opportunity is done and gone. We made the Lee trade to “re-stock the system” (obviously it was really about money). We made our bed. I am not looking to give up anymore talent for lesser pitchers than Lee. That whole mess honestly still really pisses me off.

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  79. I agree with JT. Unless a team wants to take Aumont, Gillies and Ramirez for an ace, just go for a mid-rotation guy.

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  80. JT – agreed. It’s difficult to think about the team’s predicament, particularly their predicatable annual effort to acquire a starting pitcher and not feel like you’re having an aneurysm. We all have to now be honest and admit that this was one of the biggest strategic and public relations blunders in recent team history. Sure, it’s over, it’s done, but it is a wound that always seems fresh. But they can sure make it worse by trying to fix the problem by trading away a future star for a stop gap player. I am really dreading the next month.

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  81. I have mixed feelings about a Haren deal, especially since I think that 8 weeks without Utley (combined with other injuries, but especially Utley) probably dooms them for this year. I certainly wouldn’t want them to give up Singleton or Cosart (and of course at this point I’m sure Brown is absolutley untouchable). But …

    He’s a heck of a pitcher, his ERA this year is a pruduct of bad luck rather than any diminished skills, and that contract is a bargain. Comparing Haren to Lee is silly – sure, they had Lee for one year at 9 million, but they would have Haren for 2 1/2 or 3 1/2 years (club option).

    And I hope, I really hope, that Catch 22 wasn’t referring to Haren as a “stop gap.”

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  82. Take a look at Haren’s second half splits. It really is every single year that he has an era in the 4’s in the second half. Plus if he pitches really bad in the second half that contract might turn into a negative.

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  83. At this point I am at the “let chips fall where they may” mindset. They screwed up lets not make it worse..Promote from within unless you can get a mostly money deal. Trading away what is left can continue the downward spiral.

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  84. I agree with Larry.

    I would actually give up more than we did to get Lee, considering your’re getting 3 years of Haren (the $15.5mil option is a no brainer, especially when you compare it to what AJ Burnett gets paid)

    I know this is a minor leage blog and all, but people need to remember that the big league team is priority #1. I think people get too attached to some of our prospects and over-value them… Take a look at some of the guys we traded in the past few years; most are struggling and/or injured. (Outman, Cardenas, Taylor, Marson, Knapp, etc.) Haren is a proven #1 major league starter. He’s what you hope someone like Cosart turns out to be.

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  85. No, I’m not referring to Haren as a stop gap. My point on Haren is that the cosideration they would have to pay, both in terms of salary and prospects is too much.

    This team is getting into a very dangerous pattern of trading away prospect after prospect and taking on larger and larger salaries. You can’t continue to sustain a baseball team like that unless you are the Yankees. But even the Yankees haven’t been as aggressive as the Phillies in trading away prospects over the last few years. Ultimately, if, every year, you are trading away prospects for more expensive players, it is like paying your mortgage with your credit card – it becomes harder and harder to sustain.

    I suspect that we will learn a lot about the Phillies’ long-term philosophy in the next month or so. Sure, I’d like to see if they could get some help, particularly in the infield, but, ultimately, I would rather they position themselves better for long-term success than mortgage away the future for this year. But that’s just me.

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  86. I appreciate the support from Dennis, though I wouldn’t go quite that far – the counter argument is that, while Haren IS a bargain, the REAL bargains are pre-arb stars – which is why, in principle, the reluctance to trade minor leaguers which is so prevalent here, makes sense.

    The reasons why this legitimate POV is sometimes massively exaggerated by some on this site, is (1) over-valuation of Phillies prospects, combined with (2) insufficient understanding of the different dynamic with a contending team, where “win now” strategies make more sense. The Phillies have a WS championship and two league titles as a result of that dynamic.

    Of course, this year, given injuries, maybe the “win now” strategy isn’t appropriate. But the reason to at least seriously consider Haren is that arguably the Phillies have a narrow window over the next couple of years to win with their current core – and Haren will help with that task, whereas by the time Cosart is ready (and figuring maybe a year or two in the majors before he hits his stride), the Phillies may have an aging core & not be in a position to reach the post season.

    Mind you, I’m not sure that argument is correct, and there are other considerations (e.g., while Haren is a bargain, his contract would further erode the Phillies payroll flexibility). But there IS a reasonable rationale for it.

    Unlike the Ibanez contract, which is the one Amaro move that is absolutely indefensible. (The Lee trade is at least defensible, in that arguably they are better off in the long run with Halladay, and Amaro was constrained from keeping both by ownership’s payroll inflexibility).

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  87. By the way, Haren has, at time pitched like a number 1 starter, but this year, the year of the pitcher, he’s been roughly comparable to Kyle Kendrick thus far. If that means they can get him for less than the package that was suggested, I’d consider it. I agree that this team is never going to keep both Gillies and Gose. If either of those guys goes (you pick the guy), it wouldn’t matter to me. Likewise, Rizzotti may now have some trade value. And they may need to part with Colvin, May, or Cosart, but I hope it’s not Cosart and I certainly hope it’s not two of those guys.

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  89. Catch 22, I share some concerns about the long term effects of the Phillies strategy. But they haven’t been seriously burned YET. Obviously you’re ALWAYS going to be able to look back on a team’s moves and find SOME that didn’t work out, but on the whole if the team hadn’t been aggressive with mid season deals I think it’s pretty clear that they would still be looking at a 25 plus year WS drought. I think that’s undeniable.

    I do, however, fully agree that they shouldn’t mortgage their future for THIS year. I’m not even sure we disagree THAT much about Haren. We disagree about the contract, which I think is a bargain, but I suspect that the kind of package it would take in terms of prospects would be too high. If they could somehow get him without giving up any of their current top 3 prospects – Brown, Singleton, Cosart – giving up, say, one of their 4-10, one 11-20, and 1-2 lesser prospects, I’d say go for it. But that package likely wouldn’t get it done.

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  90. I understood why they made the Lee trade, but I think everyone has to come to terms with the fact that the idea that Lee could not be afforded by this team is just an outright fabrication by management. The team easily could have positioned itself to keep Lee and make payroll and there is ample historical support for the idea that the team has been willling to exceed the projected payroll amount under special circumstances. If one year of Cliff Lee is not a special or extenuating circumstance, I don’t know what is.

    Really, what happened, is that the team did not want to be in a public relations situation where, next year, it had to let Cliff Lee go. So, they manufactured a situation where they made it look like an “either or” situation where Lee was an integral part of the Halladay transaction. But they underestimated the collective intelligence of the Philadelphia sports public. The public would have been fine with the Phillies if they said “look, we want another championship, so we kept Cliff, but we are really not sure how we are going to deal with next year . . . . we’ll deal with next year after the season.” People would have understood this and would have enjoyed this great season of having two aces on the same team. It also would have taken a lot of pressure off the shoulders of Cole Hamels.

    And, by the way, I am not killing them for the types prospects they got in return. I still think that we may get decent (although not equal) value in return.

    Okay, I am done with that issue as I know this is a bit off topic on this site.

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  91. Catch, we cross-posted but your latest confirms that we aren’t really disagreeing much on Haren.

    Regarding Haren this year, he’s been seriously unlucky. I realize this won’t convince some people here, but his xFIP is 3.43. He’s fine.

    nowheels,

    Bring him up as soon as he either gets the record or the streak ends. Just a couple more games, no reason to deprive him of the Chance for the record.

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  92. LarryM – I think we are actually on the same page – your trade proposal makes good sense, although it may have the indirect effect of preventing them from signing Jason Werth.

    I cannot kill them for making some of the trades over the last few years because, clearly, without the Blanton trade, I don’t think this team wins a championship.

    But you have to draw a fine line. You really do need to develop prospects not just as trade bait, but also to ensure the long-term success of the team and to provide salary relief.

    We’ll see.

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  94. Catch,

    My last word on Lee – firstly, I see no reason to speculate on motive. It’s one thing to argue, probably correctly, that ownership made a bad decision, It’s another to manufacture hidden motives. I think the face value explanation makes the most sense – the Phillies’s ownership, after already significantly increasing payroll, took an (arguably unwise) inflexible approach to payroll this winter.

    Secondly, while I certainly would have liked to see them keep both, as general rule I think it’s silly to waste too much energy on second guessing the payroll limits of a team that has one of the highest payrolls in baseball. And it’s especially silly to blame Amaro for what was clearly an ownership decision.

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  95. LarryM – points understood. We will never know what the organization was really thinking and I appreciate that their overall payroll level is quite high. It was just such an obvious and unnecessary blunder that it leaves one searching for a valid explanation (sorry, I can’t let Amaro off the hook – being the GM means that you must answer for moves like this and, in any event, as I noted above, team history suggests that he could have found a way to get authority for this “one off” exception).

    I hope they learned something from the experience.

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  96. The phillies did say when they traded lee that they would have some $ left for in season deals.

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  97. Totally agree it wasn’t Amaro but ownership who made the lee call. I believe the biggest factor was Lee wanted five years to sign, versus three for Halladay. But Amaro did back himself in a corner by offering arb to Blanton. but back to the minors, lee is old news, does anyone see Garcia going to Reading if he breaks the record, and moving some of the college kids in gcl up to low a by years end to see if they can produce. or do most go to fall league to show the phillies what they have.

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  98. Singleton, Brown, Cosart and Colvin shouldn’t go anywhere. We’re lucky to have them. I was just looking at the Red Sox top prospects list and I’m proud to report that I couldn’t find four prospects on their level. They certainly have elite prospects, but no position player in their entire organization(at least none drafted before 2010) looks as promising (to me) as Brown and Singleton. Even Casey Kelly isn’t putting up the numbers that Cosart and Colvin are, but he’s currently pitching in A+.

    That being said, I’m discussing the Red Sox prospect list for a reason…and yes it involves Jayson Werth. I love the guy to death, but he’s the only (possibly) expendable resource we have. If we’re not resigning Werth and are listening to trade offers, you know the Red Sox are interested. What other teams might be?

    I generally avoid discussing the MLB on this site, but this is about PROSPECTS. Who would you ask for in return? This is a move that could reshape the AL East and perhaps the postseason, so its not to be taken lightly. We hear RAJ is starting to listen to offers for Werth, so perhaps we should check out prospects we’d want in return. Werth is the most popular player among our loved ones and will net two comp picks, so we need to be compensated dearly.

    Because of those two comp picks, I’d focus on advanced players or high ceiling talents who recieved substantial bonuses. I’d ask for OF Kalish, IF Tejeda, C Exposito and 3B Middlebrooks. Sound about right? Kalish could eventually replace Ibanez, Exposito provides catching depth, Tejeda is a 19 year old infielder and Middlebrooks becomes our third base prospect. Too much? Not enough? If its too much, switch 3B Renfroe with Middlebrooks. I also like P Younginer, so he can replace Tejeda or Exposito(or both if we can’t get four player). If they get Werth, we need Kalish. Renfroe, Kalish and Younginer seems kinda light for Werth+2 comp picks, but they have enough prospects for us to figure something out.

    btw if this topic is not okay for this site, no problem.

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  99. I don’t see the team trading Werth if they are trying to make the playoffs. Can anyone here ever remember a team making a playoff run trading a middle-of-the-lineup player in a mid-year deal absent some bizarre set of circumstances? The only thing that I can recall is the Ramirez deal, but the Red Sox HAD to trade Ramirez because he stopped playing.

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  101. Baxter – I believe that what you are saying very well may be true. I don’t care that much if they trade him if they are throwing in the towel for this season, but if they are trying to kick-start the team for a playoff run, trading Jayson Werth, very clearly the most valuable hitter on the team this year, is a bizarre way of trying to achieve that goal. Yes, you can have Brown replace him in the outfield, but you’ll get the most productive by combining Brown and Werth. Very strange.

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  103. Garcia only needs 3 more games to break a 59 year old record. You can wait that long before calling him up to Reading.

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  104. mike77 That’s what I stated wonder if they will move him after he breaks the record if he does/

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  106. After the Utley injury, I’m pessimistic enough about the season that I would understand a Werth deal. What worries me (and there are some rumblings along these lines) is the possibility of trading Werth for a package including a true stop gap – i.e., a second baseman to take over for Utley until he returns.

    But I can’t imagine the Phillies really doing that – aside from the fact that I think more highly of Amaro than some people here do, I can’t see them finding a trading partner. The kind of teams that will want 3 months of Werth won’t want to trade a regular second baseman.

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  107. larrm If they are talking Werth trade, they will give the team a window to negoitate a new deal. especially if its boston. who could sign him easy.But I believe fans would go nuts if Werth is traded for prospect now, it would mean to some they have given up

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  108. mikemike, I think you’re correct as a matter of optics – and honestly I don’t see it happening unless (until?) they fall (say) 8 games out. But if you conclude that (1) injuries have made this a lost year, (2) the Phillies can’t sign him to a long term contract at a reasonable price, and (3) they are offered a package significantly more valuable than the 2 extra picks … don’t you think they would almost have to take the deal?

    And my point about the 3 month rental was that the kind of teams that would be willing to trade a (temporary) replacement for Utley won’t be in a position to sign him long term, or to benefit from having him for 3 months. Which is fine with me, I think trading him for a stop gap second or third base man would be the worst of all worlds.

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  109. Projecting the Phillies 3 years from now, Singleton in LF, Gose in CF, Brown in RF. Howard and Utley will still be around. So the trouble spots could be 3B, SS, C. I think Rollins will re-sign, but if he doesn’t, we have Villar and Garcia so it’s not too bad. That leaves 3B and C. The jury is still out on Overbeck and Valle.

    So if we trade Werth, we need to get back a premium prospect at 3B or C. Who has this? Twins, Angels, White Sox. Wilson Ramos of the Twins looks interesting.
    If Werth is dealt, deal him to the Twins.

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  110. The Twins aren’t giving up Wilson Ramos for no Jason Werth. Phillies fans seriously over value Werth. If anything, the Twins dangle Ramos for Cliff Lee.

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  112. According to MLBTraderumors, the Phillies signed a 16 year old SS today. Fransisco Silva, for 200k. That seems to be a significant bonus for the Phillies. I seldom see them go over that amount in the last few years. Must be talented. That is more than Franco got last year and more than Villar got a couple of years ago.

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  113. Werth is probably the best RF in the NL…he’d be the best in baseball if he figured out how to be a good defender again. His dropoff with the glove has been puzzling to say the least.

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  114. Will this be a time that Jesus Sanchez gets some talk? 7 shutout innings so far with 2 hits, 5 Ks and 1 walk. His ERA Is under 2.70

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  115. Send Sanchez up to Reading with Garcia and DeFratus. Sanchez has given up one run in last 22 innings. Then Lakewood can move up Way, Barnes, and Wertz to Clearwater.

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  117. If I were the Phils, I would not trade any of our top prospects (except for the three we received from the M’s in the Lee trade). I would be shopping for an infielder with some pop (Lopez, Tejada, Peralta). If Happ can’t come back soon, I’d re-sign Pedro. These moves might not be enough to get the team back to the playoffs, but so be it.

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  118. I think Amaro is smart enough not allow anyone to touch Brown (obviously), Singleton and Cosart. After that if theres a decent value, I could live without a couple of these guys. Ideally its just some minor deals to stop gap the infield and relief.

    I lived in Houston for the years they were dominant and they neglected their system. Look where theyre now.

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  119. Rumors in Seattle are indeed Dom Brown with any Lee deal. I heard this from a buddy who lives there. Honestly, my friend can’t spell baseball. So the local SEA papers(?), talk radio(?)…the rumors are floating. It’s funny to hear trade rumors (and names like D. Brown) from a guy(my buddy) who really wouldn’t know any better. For what it’s worth…Amaro would lose all credibility with me. That ship has sailed.

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  120. Though we all would like to have Lee it would be a huge mistake trading Brown. Lee is a rental for whoever he goes to. Brown is the top player in the minors. He shoul have a long stay in Philly. I think the Phillies trade for an infielder and use a 2nd tier minor leaguer(s);Carpenter, Naylor, Worley, Rizzotti, Schwimmer, Overbeck, DeFratus, etc.

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  121. So in effect you would have to give up Brown (+) for the three
    prospects(cough)and lose part of the season with Lee.
    At this point I don’t think Lee can save the teams. When you look at the last two games especially.
    Brown MIGHT help but losing more 2-0 games won’t. Forget it.

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  122. Yesterday on baseball america brown was the lead story. He is in my opinion untouchable. The phillies will not trade him ,remember he will replace a big contract next season, which will help them solve a area of weakness, either the bench or pitching, right now the offense is killing them, but the injuryies are killing them too, hard to lose three starter from your lineup and still win. but great teams overcome those types of problems.

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  123. Francisco Silva signing- 16 from Venezuela- $200,000 is supposedly what they paid for Carlos Valenzuela a couple years back, so, considering this is a later date, so if you want to rate them according to how much they got and when, maybe he is not as good as Valenzuela. Since Latin American sighning bonuses have greatly increased in recent years, comparing them to past years is off the mark, that’s what I say.

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  124. True, Silva’s bonus does not mean he is better than past signs. The amount seems to suggest that the Phillies feel he is a serious talent though. It also suggests he is talented enough that some other team may have bid more than the Phillies’ customary 100k offers to Latin players.

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  125. This team is 5 games back, not 50. Teams in the phils position don’t trade a guy like werth in the middle of the season. Still a lot of games left to be played

    Did someone really compare haren to kendrick? Wow

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