Time is short today, but I figured it would be good to move along the Top 30. Jon Singleton won in a landslide, taking 67% of the votes cast, which seems about right considering how close he was in the last round of voting. There were a few write in votes, but I only have space for one of them, so I’ll add Leandro Castro to the list for #14. Check below for more…
Monthly Archives: January 2010
The Return of Brandon Duckworth
The Phils have signed soon to be 34 year old Brandon Duckworth to a minor league deal, with Lehigh Valley sure to be his 2009 landing spot. Duckworth, a righty, came up through the Phils organization going 15-18 in his three seasons with the big club (2001-03). Since that time, he spent two years with the Astros, followed by the last four in the Royals organization. Last year was the first year since 2001 that Duckworth did not appear in a major league game, pitching solely for Omaha, the Royals AAA affiliate, going 3-6 with a 5.31 ERA in 20 games, 19 of those starts. He walked 37 and struck out 67 in his 105 innings and will provide some depth for the big club in the event of injury. He should land a job in the Lehigh Valley rotation which currently projects as: 1. Kyle Kendrick or Andrew Carpenter (the other with the big club) 2. Joe Savery 3. Ryan Vogelsong 4. Brandon Duckworth and 5. Mike Stutes. The most compelling aspect of the Duckworth signing should be whether or not the Duck Pond moves from its 2001-03 Philadelphia location, up the turnpike to Allentown.
SONAR Scores – 2B prospects
The position by position breakdown of prospects according to SONAR scores continues today with 2B. If you missed the first installment, check here. Before getting into the position, again just a few quick reminders. This statistic is based on 1 year of data. It does not factor in a player’s draft slot, his signing bonus, his raw tools, or any kind of projection for his future ability. It tells a story of what he did in 2009 based on his age, what level of the minors he was at, what league he played in, and how he was affected by his home park. There are other aspects that need to be considered when trying to evaluate prospect status, but those aspects are subjective, this score is not. This is meant to be taken as a data point for further confirmation/investigation, and to give a snapshot of the player’s true performance in 2009. After the 2010 season, a two year combination score will be used, as well as a 1 year score, but for now, the statistic only considers 2009. Check below for more…
Reader Top 30; #13
In another squeaker, Brody Colvin edges out Jon Singleton by 10 votes to take the #12 spot on the list. A number of people expressed an interest in Mike Stutes, so he’ll be added to the poll for #13. Also, check back later for SONAR’s take on 2B prospects, which I hope to have finished up soon. Time is short right now, so check below the fold for the new poll…
Aumont moving back to the starting rotation
Jim Salisbury has the latest. To me, this is a no-brainer. Aumont might not have the stuff/control to remain a starter long term, but he’s still developing, is still very young, and there’s no reason to rush him to the majors in the bullpen. The rumors about his degenerative hip, plus his mechanics made it seem like the bullpen was the only option, but I think giving him a season to start and see what they have makes a lot of sense. If his fastball can sit 93-94 with heavy sink and he can refine his curve and changeup enough to be average pitches, he can certainly be a middle of the rotation starter. And that has more value than a 7th/8th inning reliever. Aumont turned 21 a few days ago, he’ll likely spend 2010 at AA, where he will be young for the league. I have him ranked 8th in my top 30 based on the notion that he’d be a reliever. With them moving him back to the rotation, I’d bump him up to 6th, behind Brown, Gillies, May, Santana, and Gose.
Reader Top 30; #12
Antonio Bastardo took #11 in a landslide, grabbing 48% of the votes. I’m going to add Vance Worley, Rosenberg and Jon Pettibone to the ballot for #13, as both were written in for #11 in the comments. I’m currently working on the top 2B prospects in the minors according to SONAR piece, which will be up either today or tomorrow, so check back for that. Check below for the voting for #12
Reader Top 30; #11
Feel good story Scott Mathieson captures the final spot in the top 10, edging out lefty Antonio Bastardo. Mathieson is going to be very interesting to watch in 2010 and beyond. Guys coming off 3 major arm surgeries are obviously huge underdogs to ever be dominating in the big leagues, but it appears his raw stuff is in tact, so keeping him healthy will be priority #1. Its kind of silly to project anything for Mathieson in 2010, lets just hope he remains healthy and can contribute at the big league level in some form. Now that we’re past the top 10, voting becomes much more subjective and up in the air. Remember, if you vote “OTHER”, you have to post that you voted other and the player you wrote in so I can add him to the ballot for the next spot. In the voting for #10, someone wrote in Justin De Fratus, so he’ll be added. Check below for the next poll…
SONAR Scores – 1B prospects
So this will be the kickstart to my look at position player prospects across baseball based on the SONAR score statistic that I’ve come up with. If you’re unfamiliar with it, I’d suggest starting HERE. As I’ve mentioned a number of times, the score is not meant to replace scouting reports or looking at a player’s physical tools. The score is meant to give another perspective, to evaluate what the player has done statistically, and how his numbers stack up based on his age, what league he played in, and his home park. As with every evaluation system, there will be guys who score very high and very low that won’t end up going in that direction as a prospect. This could be for any number of reasons, whether it could be injury related, switching to a new position, or anything else that impacts season to season changes. As I’ve stressed a number of times, prospect status is very fluid and subject to change quite quickly. After next season, I’m going to release a second version of SONAR, maybe called SONAR2, which will be a weighted score that takes two years of data into account, instead of just 1 this year. But I don’t have the time to go back and retroactively score all of 2008, so I’m just using the 2009 data for year 1, and then next year there will be regular SONAR scores, as well as SONAR2 scores. And again, even though I’ve stressed it a number of times, this is not meant to replace anything, its simply another data point, and something we’ll have to wait and see on to determine its effectiveness or use.
Check below and we’ll get started.
SONAR Scores – Comparing the 30 teams
As I posted on the SONAR dedicated page of the site, I’ve completed the offensive sheets for all 30 MLB teams, and you can find the links organized by division. If there are any errors with the links, please post in the comments section on the SONAR page. Now that I’ve finished all 30 sheets, I can start to look at the big picture, how the teams compare, and then begin to break it down position by position. I’ll also do a similar setup for all 30 teams with regard to the pitching side of things, before doing a cumulative rank of the 30 teams. After that, I’ll produce my top 15 prospects for each organization, which will be a combination of the SONAR scores as well as my own personal opinion based on the info I’ve gathered and my study of the prospects involved. So check below for more…
Reader Top 30; #10
In the closest voting I’ve seen so far in the Reader Top 30, Jarred Cosart edges out Scott Mathieson by 2 votes, 128 to 126, with Antonio Bastardo coming in 3rd at 117 votes. It should be interesting to see how the last spot in the top 10 goes. It was recommended that Yohan Flande be added to the voting for 10, so it shall be done. Please remember, if you vote OTHER, you have to actually say who you voted for. Its easier for me if you type “Other – voted for so and so” when it comes to me finding the actual other votes. That’s how I’m going to determine who gets added to the new ballots. Check below for more
Phuture Phillies 