Reader Top 30; #18

2010 Reader Top 30

Freddy Galvis is the winner of the run-off for #16, so he takes that spot, with Brian Rosenberg taking #17 by default. We’ll move on to #18 today. Kyrell Hudson and Joe Savery both got write in support, so I’ll add both of them to the voting for #18. Sorry for the delay on the writeup for the next installment of SONAR position by position breakdowns, I’ve been short on time, but I hope to have it done in the next day or two. Check below for more…

01. Domonic Brown, OF
02. Trevor May, RHP
03. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
04. Tyson Gillies, OF
05. Anthony Gose, OF
06. Domingo Santana, OF
07. Sebastian Valle, C
08. JC Ramirez, RHP
09. Jarred Cosart, RHP
10. Scott Mathieson, RHP
11. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
12. Brody Colvin, RHP
13. Jon Singleton, 1B
14. Justin De Fratus, RHP
15. Jiwan James, OF
16. Freddy Galvis, SS
17. Brian Rosenberg, RHP
18.

91 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #18”

  3. The results of the recent trades are really evident in the list thus far; this is going to be by far the youngest Phillies top 20 ever! I can remember back not so long ago (1990’s) when even the top 10 would have consisted of at least several 25/26 year old AAAA types.

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  5. Castro.

    KG’s Top Red’s prospects are up and we have a familiar name on the list:

    12. Matt Maloney, LHP: A pure finesse lefty, Maloney is exceptionally good at his craft, but his ceiling is a fifth starter.

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  6. Turning Carrasco(headcase), Marson(overrated offensively, weak defensively), Donald (blocked by J-Roll) and Knapp(needs to rework his delivery) into 1/2 season of Cliff Lee, Ben Francisco, Tyson Gillies, Phillippe Aumont and JC Rodriguez isn’t looking so bad anymore.

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  7. Went Worley again, but can’t really argue with Castro or Pettibone. I’m wondering where the large but nearly silent Rosenberg contingent will throw its support for this round.

    Anyway, looking forward to the SONAR on third base prospects.

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  10. “Turning Carrasco(headcase), Marson(overrated offensively, weak defensively), Donald (blocked by J-Roll) and Knapp(needs to rework his delivery) into 1/2 season of Cliff Lee, Ben Francisco, Tyson Gillies, Phillippe Aumont and JC Rodriguez isn’t looking so bad anymore.”

    Good way to look at this – Baxter is on fire today.

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  11. To me, Aumont is a more advanced version of Knapp. If Aumont becomes either a closer or a #2-3 and if Gillies becomes Victorino’s successor, it will be a perfectly good trade. Heck, if Aumont becomes an ace and everything else falls through, that will still be a good trade.

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  12. I think Sanchez should be on the voting list soon. When you look back at it, it’s amazing what he did in a single year. He went from having no pitching experience to being borderline dominant during the second half of the season at Lakewood last year. That’s phenomenal and the reports are, I recall, that he has a very big arm.

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  14. Castro,
    But no argument from me, if Stutes, Worley or Pettibone are next.
    Where is the push for Hyatt or Schwimer? It would seem that the Rosenberg block would rally for those pitchers.

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  15. I really believe this upcoming draft is really important, we must get some infield prospects for this system, and find some hitters with power potential,

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  16. Looks like they’re rallying for Savery – which I really don’t get. His numbers in AA (excluding ERA) where about the same as Vance Worley, and Worley is 1.5 years younger.

    My vote is Worley. I’d be fine with Castro, Pettibone, or Stutes.

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  18. Pettibone for all of the reasons stated before. Stutes/Worley has potential to be mid- to back-end rotation starters or middle relievers. Pettibone has potential to be front-end rotation or late inning reliever. I know he is younger and at a lower level, but I’ll go with the potential.

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  19. This was my hardest pick so far. For me it was between Worley and Castro who disappointed in AA and A ball respectively, Sanchez and Schwimer who were excellent in A and A+ ball, and Hewitt and Carpenter who were about as expected in A- and AAA ball. John Sickles likes Castro, but Baseball America rated Hewitt ahead of him as a prospect in the NYPL. Stutes was easy for me to eliminate because he had a higher MLE FIP than Worley in the same league (barely, 5.61 to 5.60) but is 1-year older, but I will probably end up ranking Stutes better than some of the others I’ve mentioned who aren’t as easy to compare head-to-head. I like Sanchez, but he’s only had one pro season as a pitcher. I Schwimer better than Rosenberg, but can’t pick an older reliever prospect over a younger starter prospect.

    In the end, I went with the AA starter, Vance Worley, who like Ramirez many rounds ago, deserves a mulligan. Worley has 4 pitches and control. As a 22-year-old repeating AA this coming season, he’ll still be young for his league and I expect him to improve considerably.

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  20. Is it a case of being a ‘homer’ or did the Phillies get more for one year of Lee then they gave up for for one and a half years of Lee? That seems to be the idea everyone is dancing around.

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  21. Golson to the Yankees.

    Just in time to make the back end of many top 100 prospects lists. Just kidding!

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  22. Did’nt Golson hit a HR and make a highlight reel diving catch against the Yankees in Spring Training ’08?
    If so, maybe they still remeber.

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  23. Aumont is more than an advanced version of Knapp. He has similar velocity and more movement on his fastball. He throws a mid 90s sinker, high 90s 4 seamer, curve and splitter(which Seattle stopped letting him throw for health reasons. Knapp throws a straighter fastball and hardly has a 2nd pitch. Aumont’s stuff is among the best around; its just a matter of him staying on the field.

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  24. The more I hear about Aumont and look at his stat., the more I like him. I know he scuffled a little bit in AA and the winter leagues, but he was also striking out batters at an impressive rate, which is one of the first things I always look for. This year, the goal should be for him to stay healthy, fix his delivery, build stamina and get experience. If he comes up at any point in the 2011 season, that would be a plus.

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  25. I am high on Aumont also. Love the clips of him breaking David Wrights bat with his 2 seemer, freezing Youkilis with his slurve and getting Curtis Granderson to swing strike 3 at the slider (at the WBC).
    With all the crying about the return for Lee, you would think that Aumont and Gillies were nothing.

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  26. Mike77, he did indeed make a highlight reel catch against the Yankees in ST. I’m happy. I go to games in Scranton frequently, and I’d love to see him in action. Sometimes you have players that are not likely to succeed but you like to watch them anyway. Golson is one of them.

    I don’t get the excitement for Pettibone personally. It’s not like he throws high 90s here. He throws low 90s, has no real secondary pitch besides the fastball, and he doesn’t even have good command of that fastball. I’m not impressed in the slightest by him yet,

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  27. I’m going with Stutes. If he can figure out AA and get back to anywhere near his K/9 and HR rates of years past, he’s a top-10. If not… send him out to sea.

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  28. Castro is not getting enough love. If he were a 20 year old college draftee, that was sent to NyPenn league, he would be rated in the top 10. He put up an .863 OPS, stole bases and plays CF and RF. Guarantee he would be a star on the site, if he was drafted in ’09 from an american university.

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  29. If he were a college draftee, he wouldn’t be 20 years old. Castro’s a nice player, top 20 for me, but he also has a poor walk ratio. That K/BB ratio could catch up to him like it did D’Arby Myers, and that limits his rating at the moment.

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  33. I like Stutes, Worley and Pettibone here. I picked Pettibone but I’d be happy with either of the other two.

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  34. I dont think Leandro Castro can be compared to D’arby Myers. Myers really has no comp. Myers did not show power and played in the GCL.
    Castro showed both power and speed in a pitchers’ league(NYPL). In only his 2nd year in the country.

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  35. “Turning Carrasco(headcase), Marson(overrated offensively, weak defensively), Donald (blocked by J-Roll) and Knapp(needs to rework his delivery) into 1/2 season of Cliff Lee, Ben Francisco, Tyson Gillies, Phillippe Aumont and JC Rodriguez isn’t looking so bad anymore.”

    That is a good way to look at it, except it ignores the fact that Aumont has injury concerns as well as Knapp and that Carrasco, despite his shortcomings, is still better prospect than Ramirez. I also think you’re being a little harsh on Marson- when he was a Phils prospect, he had a good chance to be an above average catcher, now that he gets traded, he’s overrated. I dont buy it.

    I went with Flande for this round. I think he’s being overlooked because some think he’ll end up in the bullpen, but he’s had some success as a starter at a higher level than Rosenberg, is left handed, and has some decent stuff.

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  37. Why can’t a college jr be 20?? I was when I was in college. My birthday was in the summer. In fact so was my roommate whose birthday was in September. Enough of that. I went with Stutes this round. Who woke up the Savery fan club? I have him more 20-25.

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  38. I’m being realistic. The Phillies had 24 players this year who were 20 years old. As it turns out, one of them came from college. And how much are we talking up Nick Hernandez? I don’t think Castro is being underrated because he did not come from a college program.

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  39. I like Savery and think he might end up being more than some people are giving him credit for. However, the more I look at the younger pitchers we have, the lower he gets on the list. I would say 20-25 sounds about right.

    Voted Flande again, think he has fallen to far. Should be higher than Rosenberg and De Fratus.

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  40. Worley. High level at a young age. I think he will be more of a Ryan Madson type, converted to the bullpen adding 3 mph to his fastball and a killer sinker.
    Well that’s what I hope anyway…

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  42. Joe Savery ’09: Age: 24 HT: 6’3 ERA: 4.40 WHIP: 153 B/9: 4.6 K/BB: 1.25
    Ken Herndon ’09: Age: 24 HT: 6’5 ERA: 3.03 WHIP: 1.28 B/9: 1.9 K/BB: 2.5

    Conclusion: Kenneth Herndon is a better prospect than Joe Savery.

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  45. I can live with Worley being placed at this spot, but for the life of me I cannot understand people voting for Savery over some of the other players listed……if Savery was not a 1st round pick he would be listed next to Carpenter….so IMO if a player is only being selected for a list because of where he was drafted then he is not worthy of that placement……I voted for Castro and by the looks of it will have to keep voting for him several times, if he was a former 1st round draft pick he probably would have been listed as the board’s #12/13 overall prospect………Savery is a bust, hate to sound so harsh but he is what he is…..as with Hewett there were many on here who disliked/hated those selections & their claims are being shown to be correct….we need to hit a Drabek-lite HR with our 1st round selection in ’10 & then follow it up with a circa ’08 draft class…….

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  46. Went with Stutes but this was a tough pick. Like Worley, Hudson, Collier and Castro here also. Don’t understand Savery in the top 20 at all, his stuff just isn’t there.

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  47. Worley and Stutes have been splitting the vote for a couple of rounds now. Hopefully Worley breaks this up so the prospects can start falling in the proper order again.

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  48. I voted for Petitbone here. Fully realized his potential might outclass those of Stutes, Worley, and Flande , who should be falling in shortly. Petitbone has plenty of fastball by my viewing, Castro has some talent, but I say other position players left would be more favorable.
    Note: If David Herndon or Kenneth Herndon or whatever Alias he is using now, does not make the MLB roster he will likely be a Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim prospect.

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  51. Stutes, again. I’d be higher on Castro if he hadn’t struggled so badly at Lakewood bewfore he did well at W’sport.

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  53. I still like Stutes a bit over Worley, but either is fine here. I think they could have gone several spots earlier. I agree this is getting to about the right spot for Castro.

    I like the description of Aumont as a more advance Knapp. That is actually quite high praise. They both have injury questions, but I think Knapp’s questions may be a little larger. Knapp is a guy barely out of HS, known to have had an arm injury issue and a delivery issue, but with such great talent and projection that he was still able to be the centerpiece of a deal for Cliff Lee. That doesn’t happen a lot.

    With highly talented pitchers, avoiding injury is the key to making and succeeding in the bigs. Aumont has progressed farther than Knapp and that gives him a leg up. He seems to be as much a special talent as Knapp, or perhaps Drabek, for that matter. I suspect whichever of the 3 stays healthiest has the best career, and that it will be a very fine career.

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  54. Tom Boucher Says:
    January 27, 2010 at 8:57 AM
    “…if Savery was not a 1st round pick he would be listed next to Carpenter…”

    If Savery wasn’t a first round pick, I think he’d be below Carpenter. I’d certainly have him lower. Carpenter may not have good stuff, but he showed last season that he knows how to use it. I love the Blanton comparison for Drew. On the other hand, the only thing Savery has shown is good luck.

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  58. Was going with Pettibone most of the way, but decided for this vote to go with Stutes— should help to keep Savery out of the top 20 and squash this ill-informed Savery fan club in its tracks.

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  59. While that’s certainly too high for Mayberry, I’m actually planning on voting for him here as soon as Worley makes the ballot. Obviously there are plenty of guys with greater upside left in the pool, but Mayberry’s essentially a finished product as a decent looking 4th outfielder with some pop — and I’ll take that certainty over some of the more speculative guys that are left.

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  60. The problem with Mayberry is that I’m not entirely confident he’s good enough even to be the fourth outfielder right now.

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  61. Mayberry is no longer considered a ML rookie since he was on the roster for more than 45 days last season, so I didn’t even consider him for my list.

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  63. The rookie threshold for plate appearances is 150, Mayberry did not cross that. He did however spend more than 45 days on the roster. Baseball America ignores the roster days threshold when making their rookie lists, so I do the same.

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  65. Stutes is on the board because there is a silent minority that has inexplicably been voting for Brian Rosenberg and Joe Savery the last couple of rounds. No explanations or comments attached to the votes for the most part. I’m curious to get the reasoning but…

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  66. Mayberry on that list really kills it for me. I can understand an arguement for Mathieson and Bastardo in a top 10 (heck, we did it) but not him.

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  68. Yeah Mayberry being on there surprised me too… even if he were eligible I wouldn’t put him that high. Keith Law released his list of top 30 farm systems today, unfortunately I’m not a subscriber so I can’t read it.

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  71. The rookie threshold for plate appearances is 150, Mayberry did not cross that. He did however spend more than 45 days on the roster. Baseball America ignores the roster days threshold when making their rookie lists, so I do the same.

    Thanks for the clarification.

    James, how do you handle this on the site? Are you considering Mayberry for your list (and, by extensions, should we do that here)?

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  72. ****Yea, Law bashed our system. Had us ranked like #24****

    I, for one, am SHOCKED that he of all people would do that.

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  73. I love how people think Keith Law has some vendetta against the Phillies. His job is to evaluate prospects, why do you think he would let some personal feelings get in the way of that? Additionally, why on earth would he hate the Phillies?

    It’s no surprise that a non-fan would rank our system worse than we would. It’s just a manifestation of the endowment effect to me.

    If you look at our system, and how he sets the rankings, we should be low. Most of our talent is concentrated in toolsy guys in lower levels. We have no good prospects very close to the majors unless you want to count Dom Brown, but wouldn’t it be a surprise if he is up for more than a cup of coffee this year?

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  74. and in the last year we traded away Drabek, Taylor, D’Arnaud, Marson, Donald, Knapp, Carrasco… stare at that list for a while! Let’s not kid ourselves here…

    I think we had four prospects in his top 100 list last year – that was pretty good!

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  75. John, Drabek went from “a potential #3 with a 91-93 mph fastball” in late July to a “possible Ace with mid-90’s heat” immediately after the trade.

    What changed in that time? Drabek was shut down shortly after the first comment, he hasn’t played. The only thing that changed was his jersey.

    Law was down on both Drabek and Taylor until they were traded…afterwards, both were potential stars.

    It is and was odd to say the least.

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  76. John K, I don’t know if 4 of those guys were ranked in the top 100, but NONE of them were ranked in Baseball America’s top 50 to start the season last year.
    As far as Keith Law hating the Phillies, I can not get behind that idea because he has no reason to hate them. I do however, remember Keith Law implying that he was not that impressed with Kyle Drabek when he was with the Phillies. Saying that he was a #3, at best.

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  77. I went with pettibone. he has good stuff and is very verygood at striking people out. last year his FIP was 2.61. he walked a few to many, but he struck out a ton of people. He belongs in the top 20 easily. I know that his ERA was like 5.3, but he straned only 42% percent of runners that got on base against him, which is a really, really low number. he also had a .368 BABIP against him, which is about 60 points to high. I’m sure that next year in lakewood he will have a true breakout season. he’s gonna have a good yar next year, if he only gets average luck and defense. he also hasn’t gvien up a home run yet.
    I’m voting for him until he gets on the list.

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  78. every team thinks that K-Law hates their minor league system. literally, everybody. check out a cardinals minor league website, they hate him too.

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  82. Law gives more weight to MLB-close, high impact prospects and less weight to system depth. The Phillies system is all about depth, so of course it will rate low under that criteria.

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  83. Went with Pettibone here, great K numbers and it looks like he pitched into some very poor luck plus the organization obviously thought highly of him to give that bonus.

    I can’t think of a reason why Law would dislike the Phils but it is odd how he thought Drabek was nothing more than a #3/backend of the bullpen guy and now a potential ace and how he thinks higher of Taylor now.

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  84. I read Law all the time. I never heard him refer to Drabek as a #3/back-end of bullpen pitcher. #2 starter was heard most often.

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  86. I don’t think that Law has any particular dislike for the Phillies either but rather he weights his evaluations based on certain criteria.

    As Alan mentioned above, he appears to favor systems with prospects at higher levels. Based on some of the comments made during these rankings, he’s not alone.

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  87. As for Law’s take on Drabek, here is a quote from one of his chats last season:

    Shawn (Philly)
    It’s been reported that the Phillies consider Kyle Drabek untouchable. If that’s the case, is there any combination of prospects not including him that could entice the Jays to trade Halladay to the Phils?

    Keith Law (1:04 PM)
    Sticking with a theme – how stupid is that? Drabek isn’t even good enough to be “untouchable” (great stuff, already blew out his elbow, fair delivery at best, makeup questions dating back to HS), but more to the point, you’re talking about acquiring one of the top 5 starters in baseball – maybe the top starter in baseball – for a year and a half. You don’t designate a AA pitcher as “untouchable”; if you’re serious about acquiring Doc.

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  88. or this one a week later:

    Andrew (New York City)
    Would an offer of Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, Jason Donald and Lou Marson be sufficient for Roy Halladay (I am aware from your futures game article, you don’t love Drabek and your past articles that you don’t love Marson, but that is 2 top 25 prospects from BA’s most recent rankings and 2 other at least fairly well regarded guys).

    Keith Law (1:55 PM)
    I would not take that offer if I was Toronto, nor would I expect Ricciardi to take it. Marson and Drabek are both overrated, and as much as I like Brown, he’s probably two full years away and carries some risk.

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  89. Let me comment on the sidetrack from the sidetrack.

    Fangraphs top 10 list: I believe the list maker is not basing his evaluations on personal observation, because he still thinks Sebastien Valle bats Left. I believe the only place that still lists him as such is Baseball Reference, So it seems to me they took some stats off of Baseball Reference and extrapolated something out.

    They claim the return for Cliff Lee was less than that which was given up. If they believe what was originally traded FOR Lee (Carrasco, Marson, Donald, Knapp) was greater than the haul (Aumont, Ramirez, Gillies) then they must think like the character I read on mlb.com recently who thought because the Indians moved those guys to MLB roster, they were already better than any minor leaguer, Not Valid. If they claim what was sent to Toronto was better than the haul for Lee. Let’s see : Phillies traded for what they knew was going to be 4 or 5 years of Roy Halladay (plus 6 million in cash) for maybe 1 year of Cliff Lee. What Toronto got SHOULD be better. Though it is not clearly established what is better yet.

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  90. Law put up his Top 100 prospects. Domonic Brown at #14 is the only Phillies’ entrant. Taylor at #24, Drabek at #40, D’Arnaud at #99. Also this blurb on Drabek, I don’t believe I’m breaking subscriber rules because the purpose of this is to review his work.

    “With some cleanup and a third pitch, he has a chance to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. ”

    So that should put a stop to the talk that all the sudden Law thinks Drabek is a future ace.

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  91. “You seem to have Drabek a lot lower on your list than others (I know Jim Callis has him top 5 pitching prospects). Don’t think he has enough upside or?

    Klaw (1:07 PM)
    No, I don’t think he has that upside. He’s not an ace in the making, and I’ve talked to several scouts and front-office types who share that view.”

    Yes, please stop with the bias claims. Every team’s fans thinks that every media writer (and announcer) hates their team.

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