Reader Top 30; #14

2010 Reader Top 30

Time is short today, but I figured it would be good to move along the Top 30. Jon Singleton won in a landslide, taking 67% of the votes cast, which seems about right considering how close he was in the last round of voting. There were a few write in votes, but I only have space for one of them, so I’ll add Leandro Castro to the list for #14. Check below for more…

01. Domonic Brown, OF
02. Trevor May, RHP
03. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
04. Tyson Gillies, OF
05. Anthony Gose, OF
06. Domingo Santana, OF
07. Sebastian Valle, C
08. JC Ramirez, RHP
09. Jarred Cosart, RHP
10. Scott Mathieson, RHP
11. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
12. Brody Colvin, RHP
13. Jon Singleton, 1B
14.

78 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #14”

  1. Think this will be a little closer then the last vote. Went with Rosenberg. I know some question the age but I think he can contribute in 2010 or 2011 w/the Phillies. After him I thinking maybe Stutes, Castro, Worley, DeFratus, and Flande.

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  2. To me De Fratus has the best combo of command, stuff, track record, and ability to dominate hitters–not at the level of a Knapp or Drabek, but he seems to be pretty hard to hit most times out. Stutes had been great, but I can’t read whether his mediocre performance last year was finding his level or just a hiccup.

    To me De Fratus is a solid choice today, but Stutes has the potential to vault forward this year into the top 10 if he finds his legs against the better competition in upper minors.

    Need a better read on James. Flande could be simply a AAAA or fringe major leaguer. Rosenberg should be a solid reliever, if he is not Bisenius (doesn’t look like it).

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  4. Is Drew Carpenter not considered a prospect anymore? While the peripherals were obviously different, he had a better ERA in AAA than Drabek did in AA and was dominating for stretches. I don’t think he’s more than a 4-5 in the majors, but I think he deserves a chance at some point this season.

    Anyway, I wrote him in.

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  5. Not bad for 1 through 14, considering the depletion. Singleton at 14 speaks volumes, IMO. We can be one good draft and 2 or 3 of our high ceiling question marks performing well this year from bridging much of the gap.

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  6. I think Stutes is a sleeper #5 starter for the big club, but I voted De Fratus based on stats alone. Then again, Stutes put up similar numbers at that level…

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  7. Other: Hudson – I’m really hoping his signing pays off.

    My first time voting “other.” PP, this is where you want the comment, correct, not just in the box on the ballot?

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  8. Went with Vance Worley here.
    He was a stud at Reading early in the season in a highly competitive league. When he develops more stamina he’ll extend his effectiveness deeper into the season.
    I like his control and poise and I expect to see him in a major league rotation within 2 or 3 years.

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  10. Agreed, I like Worley. We were talking about him as if he was an absolute stud before the end of the year when he tailed off a bit. I’d expect him to come out firing again

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  11. The first 13 kinda easy. The next 17 you have many arguments. I see only 3 maybe 4 position players (Galvis, James, Hewitt, and Hudson) in the top 30. The Phils are deep in pitching where we might see 13 of the last 17 be pitchers.

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  12. Nathaniel “Jiwan” James.
    Bonus Baby. Big, fast, switch hitting, Centerfielder. Hit better than Michael Taylor in short season, at a younger age. Debated James against Castro, may change my mind before either gets voted in.
    Fully expect De Frautus to win this round.

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  13. Voted Pettibone. I like big, projectionable righties and he was fairly dominant for stretches last season. I think he’s a major sleeper.

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  16. You vote ‘Other’ but unless you post it in the comments it doesn’t count.

    Other – Ball Player

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  17. I went with Michael Stutes again. To me, the greater difficulty in pitching in Reading as a starter versus pitching in Lakewood as a reliever makes up for the difference in statistics. De Fratus’s ERA as a starter was 4.34 this season compared to 1.58 as a reliever. If Stutes were a low A reliever, could he match De Fratus’s performance?

    On an expanded note, I really can’t see placing relievers in my top 20 unless they have truly devastating stuff.

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  19. alan is correct, but we are kind of running out of guys we can say will probably make the big leagues.

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  20. I voted for Savery… His numbers were not great but he won games… and is learning the hard way to pitch out of trouble… a little improvement and he is not far away from the majors… hears hoping he puts it all together this year…

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  22. I voted for Mike Stutes – I think he’s going to turn some heads this year and take a very large leap forward, perhaps even ending up with the big club before the year is over. Worley, to me, just seemed like a guy who won’t miss bats and will get clubbed around. Maybe Worley can be effective in relief. God knows we’ll need some bodies to replace middle relievers like Chad Durbin and take some salary off the books; maybe Worley can be one of those guys.

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  23. wrote in freddy galvis, to me he is the last guy who still has a super plus tool left, combined with the fact that the organization has been so aggressive with him pushing such a young kid to double a, to me means they have hopes for him. If his bat comes along, which is possible with his young age, the kid is a legitimate starting SS at the MLB level.

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  24. I think from now on the voting will be less predictable and will always be close. By this reader ranking process, I think the separation between Singleton and the next prospect is the largest since the difference between Brown and #2. Those 2 times the winner of a round of voting had more than 10 times the votes of the runner-up. In an attempt to be able to quantify the relative separation between rounds, I tabulated the round-by-round results below, tracking the %votes for the winner and runner up. I ended a cluster of prospects any time the winner of the round more than doubled the vote total of the 2nd place finisher. You can also see from the table that the runner-up has won the next round except Gillies, who had to wait 3 rounds after a meaningless virtual tie for 2nd behind Brown, and Matheison who had was runner-up in consecutive rounds before winning. My prediction is that there will not be another cluster by this method, that is never again will the round winner double his closest competitor and everybody else will be in cluster 7, but we’ll see.

    # Prospect %1st 2nd %2nd 1st/2nd Cluster
    1 Brown 96 Gillies 1 96.0 1
    2 May 38 Aumont 21 1.8 2
    3 Aumont 35 Gillies 30 1.2 2
    4 Gillies 56 Gose 18 3.1 2
    5 Gose 46 Santana 22 2.1 3
    6 Santana 38 Valle 24 1.6 4
    7 Valle 41 Ramirez 21 2.0 4
    8 Ramirez 39 Mathieson 17 2.3 4
    9 Cosart 25 Mathieson 25 1.0 5
    10 Mathieson 36 Bastardo 30 1.2 5
    11 Bastardo 48 Colvin 21 2.3 5
    12 Colvin 38 Singleton 36 1.1 6
    13 Singleton 67 Rosenberg 6 11.0 6
    14 ??????? 7

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  25. Sorry my table is not aligned. I tried, but my spaces were deleted. Here are the column headings, expanded:

    Round# — Prospect name — %votes for 1st place — name of 2nd in the round — %votes for 2nd place — 1st/2nd — Cluster#.

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  27. Really close 5-way contest, surprised to see Worley isn’t doing better. I flipped a coin between he and Stutes.

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  28. Carpenter and Savery really ought to be in this pack as well, and I don’t see a huge difference between Rosenberg and Shwimmer.

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  29. With Singleton off the board, it’s a tough call here. I’ve been debating between De Fratus and James, with Worley sort of peripherally in the mix. Love De Fratus’ statistical profile — the ground balls, the strikeout-to-walk ratio — but it does worry me a tad that the organization has moved him so slowly (and relegated him to the bullpen).

    So I think I’ll go James here. He was above average offensively (Fangraphs had him at a 109 wRC+, sort of their version of OPS+) in the NYPL after a long layoff from hitting, and his peripherals were fairly solid: 8.3% BB, 18.2% K, 25.0% XBH, .107 ISO. Not much power, but he controlled the strike zone reasonably well given the inexperience, and the scouting reports on him are highly impressive. From BA (subscription required):

    Jiwan James just missed the Top 10. I had one source who said his tools are superior to those of Anthony Gose, which is significant… James’ power, like everything else, is in the raw stage right now. But he’s the best athlete in a system of athletes. That’s a loud statement. He is potentially an outstanding defender; just didn’t play the OF for parts of two years, so he has some catching up to do.

    Impressive tools in a switch-hitting outfield package, plus solid peripherals in a pitching-dominated league, equals something I think we can get excited about.

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  30. Sorry that I dont know…but what was James doing last 2 years? And what about Mayberry…does he not qualify for prospect status? Thanks guys I love reading the comments!

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  31. Scwimmer stats CLR FSL 2 1 2.85 48 0 0 0 20 60.0 44 21 19 2 19 82 1.16 .204
    REA EAS 2 1 7.71 5 0 0 0 0 4.2 7 4 4 0 2 7 0.75 .350
    Minors 4 2 3.20 53 0 0 0 20 64.2 51 25 23 2 21 89 1.13 .216

    Rosenburg stats LWD SAL 7 2 0.89 37 0 0 0 19 50.1 37 7 5 0 10 65 1.13 .200
    REA EAS 0 1 2.53 10 0 0 0 3 10.2 10 3 3 0 4 8 0.83 .263
    Minors 7 3 1.18 47 0 0 0 22 61.0 47 10 8 0 14 73 1.06 .211

    Allentown this is not even close, Rosenberg is Clearly the better pitcher, they are 1 year apart in age. So how do u figure?

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  32. I don’t see how it isn’t even close. Rosenberg is a little older and has most of his IP at Lakewood, while Schwimer has most of his a level higher at CLW. Also, Lakewood is a notorious pitcher’s park. Yet, Schwimmer has just about the same WHIP and oba as Rosenberg. Schwimer also has a marginally higher K rate. The only advantage to Rosenberg is that he did better during their stints at Reading, but that is a really small sample.

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  33. Could I write in Rosenimmer. Cisco for no reason at all but I think this is his year. As he nears maturity I think added strength will improve his game.

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  35. I think that Schwimer and Rosenberg are just about tied as prospects. I had Schwimer ahead until I heard that Rosenberg and not Schwimer is invited to Spring Training with the Phillies, so now I’m undecided. I don’t think 5 months difference in age is too meaningful, but since Rosenberg had more innings in college as a starter than Schwimer did as a reliever, I think that may put him ahead today and in April, but not necessarily as a prospect in the future. According to MinorLeagueSplits.com their MLE FIP (Major league equivalent (adjusted for league & park I think) fielding independent pitching (ERA given average luck and defense)) are 3.92 for Schwimer and 3.19 for Rosenberg in 2009. In 2008 MLEs are not available for the GCL but they both pitched in Williamsport where Schwimer’s FIP was 1.74 and Rosenberg’s was 2.85. I guess that’s why Schwimer was promoted to Clearwater while Rosenberg went to Lakewood to start last year. CAIRO projects Schwimer to have a 3.69 ERA if he pitches in Philadelphia this season and CHONE projects Rosenberg to have a 5.40, but CAIRO doesn’t include Rosenberg and CHONE does not include both Schwimer. For what its worth, CHONE projects Bastardo 4.66, Happ 4.28, Escalona 4.70 and Kendrick 4.71 while CAIRO projects them at 5.16, 5.50, 5.36, and 4.82, respectively, so CAIRO seems harsher if anything. Of the Phillies, only Haliday and Madson are projected to have better ERAs then Schwimer. Hamels is 4th at 3.82. All in All, I’m keeping Schwimer 1 slot ahead of Rosenberg at 20 and 21 on my list. But I have both behind De Fratus, Worley, Sanchez, and Stutes (in that order), among pitchers not yet chosen, mostly because I look at those 4 as starters and Schwimer and Rosenberg as relievers.

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  36. Schwimer kept his high SO/9 ratio when he went to Reading, Rosenberg didn’t. However, that reversed a bit in the AFL.

    Neither sample size is large enough to mean anything.

    Both seem like fairly polished college relievers that might help the big club in the next year or two.

    I also hope that Schwim contributes an occasional column to the site next year as well…as they were great insights into minor-league life and were much appreciated.

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  37. I went with Pettibone here due to age and some isolated pockets of strong performances, but I could have easily gone with Castro or Worley (forgot how good his first ten starts were), and I like what I’m hearing about James. I second PhillyFriar’s comments on DeFratus.

    And ken45, I liked your tiering of the prospects, I think that is a logical way to look at it and it made sense. The only mistake I think we as a group made was to put Cosart where we did – he seems to belong with Singleton and Colvin, as opposed to being with Mathieson and Bastardo.

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  38. CHONE projects Rosenberg to have a 5.40, but CAIRO doesn’t include Rosenberg and CHONE does not include both Schwimer. For what its worth, CHONE projects Bastardo 4.66, Happ 4.28, Escalona 4.70 and Kendrick 4.71 while CAIRO projects them at 5.16, 5.50, 5.36, and 4.82, respectively, so CAIRO seems harsher if anything.

    One can make a case that Happ was the best/most productive pitcher last year. So what do these stats mean.
    With a little better run support he could of been say 15-1.

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  39. Other- I vote Freddy Galvis.
    I say should be on this list ahead of mostly middle relief hopefuls and talented OF prospects who may not be starters.
    People underrate the importance of superior defense in the Middle Infield.
    Size concerns may not be factual because the listed height and weight may simply have been repeatedly copied from blurb annoucing his signing as 16 year old, and never updated. Seen him on Reading Phillies website and weight does not look disproportionate to height and build.
    Hitting may improve because he has hit well in spurts in past, and can simply extend these periods, smooth out and improve in the down periods in between, and get on more frequent good rolls. Then he can striing more or these together. Not every player needs to be a power hitter, but maybe he can up this somewhat as well.

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  40. Freddie Galvis is a future utility infielder. Unless he miraculously becomes a .300 hitter, no team will carry him in their everyday lineup.
    Lack of power is not his only problem. He strikes out too much, he does not take walks and he does not steal bases. If he drew BB’s, and stole bases he might stick, but he doesn’t, so he won’t.

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  41. Marfis
    Lets hope you are right. Depth is needed. My only problem with your statement is “middle infield”. You may remember
    Herzog called third base the most important infield post. At first that may seem overstated but the ability to stop doubles
    and the range to allow the SS to work more magic are important. Unfortunely we seem to have downgraded that position with no hope coming except maybe Galvis in a pinch.
    What I am trying to say he might be valved at two positions.

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  42. Galvis doesn’t have to turn into a 300 hitter to be an everyday player with his glove. Not only that but he is a 20 year old who has already spent half a season in Double A, give the kid a couple of seasons for his age to catch up to his level to see if the bat develops instead of just writing him off as a utility infielder.

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  43. What’s all the hype about Jiwan James ? Did anyone check his stats ? At Williamsport he hit .264 . Your other candidate Jon Pettibone also at Williamsport had a startling ERA of 5.35 with a WHIP of 1.50
    Where is Austin Hyatt ? 0.66 ERA with a 0.70 WHIP , yes also @ Williamsport
    He needs to be on your list before these 2 to make this somewhat crediable.

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  44. I’m wary on Hyatt until I see him produce at a higher level. His stats were incredible, but he was 23 years old, quite old for the NY-Penn League. This is a situation where I think it’s instructive to look at past results. Hyatt finished second in K/9 in the league. That’s great. Ten years ago, Justin Fry led the NY-Penn League in K/9. In 2000 it was Michael Steele. 2001 had Kevin Barry. 2002 it was Mike O’Connor who at least reached the majors. 2003, Jamie Vermilyea. You can look at the leaderboards yourself. There really does not seem to be much predictive value to dominating the NY-Penn League hitters.

    Second, the NY-Penn League is a borderline deadball era league. The league batting line this season was 245/320/351. Now Jiwan James. His batting numbers superficially are not impressive. But his BA, OBP and slugging percentage all exceeded the league average. And this is from a guy who had two years away from hitting at an organized level. And scouts rave about his athleticism. That’s a major sleeper prospect right there.

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  49. Just to support my vote for Pettibone, and to contrast him to Hyatt, he was four years younger than Hyatt at the same level. He had 8 starts, four of which were awful, three of which were outstanding, and one which is hard to interpret based on looking at the box score. He had a K/9 of 9.2 which indicates he has good stuff. He had a BB/9 of 4.1 which means he has trouble harnessing it.

    From a non-statistical standpoint, he received a signing bonus of $500k, which gives a sense for what the Phils thought of him. In addition, scouting reports I’ve seen have generally been positive, though one poster on this site did not think much of him when they saw him pitch.

    I think he has a pretty high ceiling with some performance to back it up. Admittedly the performance was mixed, but he was young for his level. That being said, I’m more and more unsure about voting for him compared to Castro or James…

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  50. Alan / Greg : Hyatt / Pettibone and James all played for the same club and level @ Williamsport .. “Their numbers are their numbers .”

    Also Hyatt was the closer when Lakewood won their championship last year. He pitched great .

    If this level is so inferior why wasn’t Pettibone ( 5.35 ERA ) and James’s ( .264 BA ) numbers off the charts ?

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  51. Dom, Hyatt was NOT the closer for Lakewood during the playoffs. Santos Hernandez was the closer. The only game Hyatt finished was the clincher when they had a four run lead. Hyatt pitched six innings for Lakewood during the playoffs. He pitched great but I am NOT going to evaluate a prospect based on six playoff innings.

    Second, I am not saying the level is inferior. I am saying there is not a strong connection between pitching prowess in that league and future success. Scouting reports at that level are far more reliable than statistics.

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  52. Also, Dom, age matters. Hyatt was older than most of the competition, Pettibone was younger than most of the competition.

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  53. DanDan,
    You are exactly right. I should not write Galvis off as a utility infielder. He could improve or have a breakout year.
    This exercise is not based on hopes and “ifs” though. It is based on what the prospect’s tools and performance has been so far. It is also about the indicators that show improvement may be coming. Galvis has one tool. Defense. This is not 1970, every position has to hit some. Even a catcher would need to hit better than .550 OPS to get a starting job. Galvis is John McDonald at best at this point, and that is a utility IF.
    All of the “ifs” that are given to Galvis about his hitting, could be given to Mattair and Anthony Hewitt also. But they are not being considered a top 15-20 prospect.

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  54. Check out Hyatt’s strikeouts to innings pitched including the playoffs last year. Hyatt struck out 98 in 65 innings. Saw him get two more strikeouts against two lefty Tiger hitters in a 9th inning outing in an Instructs game. He and lefty Corey Noles who won the clinching game as a starter in the Sally Championship playoffs are two guys to watch at the Complex this spring to see what plans they have for them.

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  55. surprised Julio Rodriguez is not getting any love at this point. Same age as Pettibone and a level behind but put up really strong numbers in GCL. And followed that up with a strong performance in the PWL.

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  56. Is there an age limit for the top 30 list ? . Are we now saying that Hyatt because he is 23 is not a top 15 prospect even though he has better numbers than the younger players such as Pettibone and Cosart. Why is it that everyone wants to evaluate him based on better competition but its OK to evaluate the young guys such as Domingo Santana Jon Singleton based on rookie ball competition and put them in the top 15 ? You can’t have it both ways .

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  57. “Is there an age limit for the top 30 list ?”

    No.

    “Are we now saying that Hyatt because he is 23 is not a top 15 prospect even though he has better numbers than the younger players such as Pettibone and Cosart.”

    Yeah. Pretty much.

    “Why is it that everyone wants to evaluate him based on better competition but its OK to evaluate the young guys such as Domingo Santana Jon Singleton based on rookie ball competition and put them in the top 15 ? You can’t have it both ways .”

    Because those higher rankings are based on scouting reports, reputable reviews from those in the business of prospect evaluation. All we know about Hyatt is that he had a great half-season in the NY-Penn League and 466 players got drafted ahead of him in June. You want to talk numbers? His career ERA in the SEC was 4.04. So either he became a magically better pitcher instantly upon being drafted, or there’s something a bit fluky at work here. In any case, I’m not going to change an evaluation based on 60 innings of minor league work.

    But since you’re arguing for Hyatt let me ask you. What does he throw? What’s his average velocity? What’s his arm slot? Do you know anything about him besides his stat line?

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  58. The reason Santana and Singleton are so high is because they did the exact OPPOSITE of Hyatt. They went to a higher level than they should have been at and performed really well. That positively effects their scores.

    That same mentality can be used to say that a guy who is older than his competition SHOULD BY DEFAULT do better. So his score is negatively impacted.

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  59. If/when Hyatt makes it to Clearwater or Reading, we’ll see if the first year stats mean anything. A+ and AA ball is where the rubber hits the road; below that and college pitchers with that much more strength and experience have such an extraordinary advantage that the statistics at least have to be viewed with skepticism.

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  60. Dom — because they are playing at an age-appropriate level and Hyatt is not. You can’t just look at the raw results, you have to age adjust. I imagine Bruntlett would excel if he got to play the whole season at Williamsport. That still wouldn’t make him a decent hitter. Hyatt is 4 years older than the other guys. That is putting a college senior in a high school game. Even a very mediocre college senior regular starter will look good.

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  61. nowheels- that is a very real possibility that Galvis could be forced to learn at the MLB level, thing is if Rollins did go down the organization would probably go to Galvis so that there was no drop off defensively and take the offensive hit

    mike77- i agree 100% that in today’s game every player has to find ways to contribute offensively. However Galvis’s defensive tool is so special and at a premium defensive position that if he can simply find a way to have an OBP around 330 and become a good situational hitter he is an everyday player.

    Take Valle for instance, we have him at 7 this year he just completed his age 18-19 season, his half year in Williamsport was great then at lakewood he only hit 223, Galvis in comparison spent his entire age 18 season in Lakewood and hit 238, nothing special by any stretch but then in 2009 (age 19 season), instead of being in one place to work on things he battled a little injury and still ended up in Reading after starting in Clearwater. He won’t be 21 until after the 2010 season ends so lets be patient with the bat and let him develop some offensive game, maybe spending an entire season in one place and with no injury will be a nice boost to his offensive game and he suddenly becomes a very viable prospect. Plus I’d be shocked if he didn’t start to put on some muscle at some point.

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  62. sorry for the double post i meant to add that before going to reading this year at Clearwater he was hitting 247, OBP at 280 and I’m pretty sure at 19 he was still young for that league. He just needs to make steady improvements, it doesn’t have to be a super drastic jump in production.

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  63. Is Brian Roseberg seriously getting this much support? The Phillies’ system is in serious trouble if Rosenberg is the #15 prospect. Stutes, Worley and even Pettibone should organize a protest.
    What is with all these votes for too old, minor league relievers?

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  65. Dandan, being familiar somewhat with the AAA veterans I can not see how the Phillies would take Galvis over Juan Castro, Wilson Valdez or Cody Ransom if the Phillies needed an emergency replacement. (Or even Ozzie Chavez) As good as Galvis’s glove is, his bat simply could not allow him to stick in any role in the majors right now.

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  66. Alan I really think that it would depend on when an injury occurred, the extent of the injury, if there were any available free agents and how the players were playing. If the injury happened early in the year you’d probably see one of the guys you mentioned, same if it was only an injury likely to keep JRoll out a week or two. But if the injury happened in say mid August, there wasn’t any concrete timetable for return, the team wasn’t able to acquire a good SS and Galvis had a respectable season I think they’d go with him since the defense is so superior to the players listed and I think they’d put more value on that if there was a possibility he’d be needed in the playoffs.

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  68. Jiwan James does need to be on this list. Where is anyone’s guess. Is it even possible to be more toolsy than Gose, Hewitt, Hudson? Switch hitter with speed is a good place to start, but can he hit?
    On an unrelated note, does anyone want to make Gose a pitcher now?

    For my vote though, I’ll go with De Fratus at this point. No idea on his scouting report but the stats are consistently good and he is still age appropriate.

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  69. i’m voting for zach collier and expect him to turn it around big time this year. Not a bad top group, but it gets really hard from here on out.

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  70. Anonymous,

    People are seeing Rosenberg and the success he has had so far in his short minor league career. He has shown more then Pettibone…so far. He is an older prospect but one who has produced so far. If he finishes 15-18 don’t worry. We aren’t really calling the shots. The Phils still know who their top 30 is.

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  71. Rosenberg…Rosenberg…Rosenberg! You also forget to mention that he helped bring home gold for Team USA. His numbers there were only ok, largely due to one bad outing. He also got some action in the Mexican league before shutting down for the year.

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  72. Jiwan James. Was a big deal when the Phillies signed him away from his scholarship. Still young even after missing an entire year. For a guy that never hit in GCL, he hit pretty well in the ny-penn league. Switch hitting, Centerfielder. Star potential at this point of the list is pretty good.

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  73. Rosenberg is another 23 yr old college guy who like Hyatt has great numbers but is not projected as high based on scouting reports as the young studs such as Santana / James / Pettibone . While scouting reports are useful, they are also very subjective… they don’t oftain measure the intangibles such as the size of a players heart .
    Did you ever read the scouting reports on Jeff Jackson High School phenom and former # 1 pick back in the day .?

    He was a can’t miss prospect who never made in to the big league.
    By the way the Phillies passed on Frank Thomas a college guy from Auburn with that pick.
    I’ll take performance over potential any day .

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  74. I personally don’t have Pettibone ranked highly either and I have Rosenberg in the mid-20s with the other relief prospects. Santana was a top performer in the GCL (his OPS is in the top ten), while I’ve gone over Jiwan James’ performance.

    I too value performance over potential. Right now, the highest I’ve rated a player based on potential is Zach Collier at #21 (and my list is highly volitale, it’s really difficult this year). What we’re disagreeing on is how to rate Austin Hyatt’s statistics. The Phillies have two other pitchers who are (were) 23 years old and right handed. BJ Rosenberg and Michael Schwimer. Schwimer succeeded at Clearwater, Rosenberg at Lakewood.

    Look, I’m not trying to downgrade Hyatt. I look at his numbers, and I see a guy who could reach the majors someday. He could also be RJ Swindle. I’ve never seen him pitch, I haven’t found a scouting report either so I’m somewhat in the dark. But there’s a ton of good prospects in this system, and I’ve rated the others higher.

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  75. If Rosenberg threw 88 mph and was getting by on control and experience, I would agree with some of the disparaging comments. But he can bring it up at 95 MPH and has a second pitch, IIRC. Anyone remember what it is?

    IMO, THAT is what makes him a credible prospect. Hyatt, I don’t know what he throws, but his line is so good, he becomes an intriguing guy. Old guys who dominate at lower levels should be docked some. But if they continue to perform and progress to upper level, they should than make up some of the difference again.

    If a guy can get big league hitters out and is performing well at AA/AAA, don’t care if he is 25-26. So long as he has honed his skills professionally and has not had major hiccups, the record is still predictive. Now a 25 yr old who struggles at AA/AAA is another story.

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  76. The best comp to Hyatt this year is Mike Cisco from last year. College pitcher, completely dominant at Williamsport, even got some great numbers at Lakewood. In ’09 at Clearwater, he came down to earth, have some good success, but also some problems. I agree with nowheels that this is a pivotal year for Cisco- he could rocket up and be this year’s Zagurski or he could have reached his level and become a non-prospect. I’ll be voting for both Hyatt and Cisco when we get to the twenties. Voted for Rosenberg, but want to see Galvis soon.

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  77. Even if you base your ranking on performance, how do you justify ranking Rosenberg over Stutes and Worley. Worley and Stutes dominated Lakewood as starters (not relievers) and were younger than Rosenberg. If you value what Rosenberg accomplished as a 23 year old facing 20 year olds, than you have to value what Worley and Stutes accomplished more. They did it at an earlier stage of developement.

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  78. When we get to this point on the list a high ceiling means a lot more to me. James has the highest ceiling of the remaining candidates IMHO, so I went with him.

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