Reader Top 30; #13

2010 Reader Top 30

In another squeaker, Brody Colvin edges out Jon Singleton by 10 votes to take the #12 spot on the list. A number of people expressed an interest in Mike Stutes, so he’ll be added to the poll for #13. Also, check back later for SONAR’s take on 2B prospects, which I hope to have finished up soon. Time is short right now, so check below the fold for the new poll…

01. Domonic Brown, OF
02. Trevor May, RHP
03. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
04. Tyson Gillies, OF
05. Anthony Gose, OF
06. Domingo Santana, OF
07. Sebastian Valle, C
08. JC Ramirez, RHP
09. Jarred Cosart, RHP
10. Scott Mathieson, RHP
11. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
12. Brody Colvin, RHP

69 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #13”

  1. Results skewed by Montgomery’s depressing admission that he can’t keep together our home grown core?

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  4. Voted for JDF (again)

    Want to see what Singleton can do at Short Season (or Lakewood) before I put him in my Top 15.

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  6. A recent article in The Hardball Times shows that Justin De Fratus is one of just 16 minor leaguers without mlb experience who were better than average for their league in each of the following 4 categories for each of the last 2 years:
    -strikeouts per 100 PA (K100)
    -non-intentional walks and hit batters per 100 PA (BH100)
    -Groundball rate (GB)
    -Home runs per fly ball + line drive (HRFL)
    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitching-prospects-who-might-be-keepers/

    PhuturePhillies SONAR score shows De Fratus to be the best Phillies pitching prospect by that measure in 2009. The above article shows that he’s just as good over the past 2 seasons. And he pitched well in his first pro, GCL, season as well. At 6-4, 215 with a 89-95 MPH fastball, a slider and change up, great control, no serious injury history, I don’t see the downside. The biggest negative I have read is that the Phillies have been taking there time with him, keeping him in extended spring training, and pitching him as a both a starter and a reliever rather than fast-tracking him as a starter only, but so what? He has succeeded at every level. Even if he continues to progress one level a year (as opposed, say, to pitching in both Clearwater and Reading this year), he is on track to reach the big leagues as a 25-year old rookie in 2013.

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  8. Jiwan James,
    High pedigree, switch hitting, Center Fielder who is faster than Anthony Gose. More than held his own in Williamsport. Breakout player of the year in ’10.

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  10. I’ll be voting for the guys on the list for a while, but the next name for me would be Leandro Castro.

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  11. Obviously it’s Singleton here, and for good reason. He’s a major breakout candidate in Lakewood next season, even given his tender age and the pitcher-friendly park.

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  13. I went with Pettibone. Singleton is certainly a valid choice, but at the end of the day, when you are talking about rookie level players, the people in the best position to evaluate are the ones who drafted and paid them. Pettibone got over half a million $ while singleton got much less. I would bet if the Phillies had to choose between them, given the little information gathered thus far, they’d go with the one they paid three times as much to bring into the organization. But as far as statistics can mean anything is such small sample sizes, I understand the love for Singleton.

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  14. I have Stutes and then Singleton. I don’t know if Stutes will be a starter in the big leagues but I think he can definitely be a set up guy.

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  16. I went with Justin De Fratus by a nose over Brian Rosenberg and Yohan Flande.

    I love pitchers with excellent control and De Fratus has shown he has it.

    Rosenberg’s numbers from Lakewood last season were eye-popping (great K/BB ratio) and he managed to hold his own in 10 innings at Reading after the call up.

    Flande got my attention when he was a big part of the 2008 championship GCL team.

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  18. I voted De Fratus and I enjoyed the article thanks.

    My one concern after reading the article is that it seems he needs to significantly improve either his K-rate or his ground ball rate or he could just give up line drives to death as he continues to pitch to tougher hitters.

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  20. Yeah, seems like De Fratus is a bit of a sleeper, since he constantly gets overshadowed by the Mays, Knapps, Colvins, Cosarts, etc. The stealth route to the majors can be a good thing, since it allows a pitcher to produce and grow without excessive spotlight time.

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  22. I’m no longer voting, since they’d just be guesses on my part. I don’t want to dilute the educated input. But I do like what I am reading about Defratus. And I second the props for Collier. I expect that he will be much improved this year, and possibly crack top 10 next year. And I still have some exectations for Hewitt…

    There will be several names in the top 10 next year that have yet to be ranked.

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  24. baxter Says:

    Results skewed by Montgomery’s depressing admission that he can’t keep together our home grown core?

    Here is what is stunning “why say it”. It is stupid and bad business.
    Good luck to Singleton. I find it a confusing from here out. You can make a case for many.

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  25. I think this will be a year to watch Leandro Castro. He had a good year last year. If he can duplicate the numbers at Lakewood I think he could be a top 10 in 2011. I think after Singelton you might have to look hard at our relievers;Rosenberg, DeFratus, Schwimmer, and Hyatt to fill out the top 20.

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  26. I voted for Singleton. Judging by the numbers when I just voted, I think he might take this one.

    I advocate for Freddy Galvis to be added to this list.

    DeFratus- not established as a starter or releiver, though his numbers may be good in spots, maybe a little later.

    Seen Petitbone– though he is obviously big, and an obviously big fastball, just did not stand out or have “it” factor to me.

    Yeah, Jiwan James is a good athlete. though BA rated him the fastest and bestest , who Knows? Maybe by match races , only way. When seen Williamsport I rate athletes as Hewitt, Villar, Castro, and James in that order, with Collier a notch below these. I’d say the top 4 very close.

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  28. Question to the group:

    We have a LOT of athletes in the system–great football team, it has been said, and to me, more than we have ever had, likely in the history of the Phils.

    Does the sheer number of raw athletes aid in the development of those with the potential to develop into major leaguers. IOW, with those numbers you expect (or at least hope for) a couple to surprise and make it. That’s the goal. Will the one or two statistically expected successes pull another one or two along by the coattails by virtue of modeling, good habits, work ethic, correct technique, organizational philosophy, etc. Does the sheer number breed developmental competence in the system and player adherence to a program of learning sound fundamentals?

    OR?

    Is that all wishful thinking?

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  29. Other – Colby Shreve; I like power arms & this year should prove whether the investment was worth the wait.

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  30. ***Kevin Goldstein has his top Blue Jay prospects list up. Guess whose #1?***

    More interesting are #2 (Brett Wallace) and #3 Travis d’Arnaud…we gave the Blue Jays their top 3 prospects in exchange for 1 year of Halladay…a guy with a FNTC who only wanted to pitch in Philly. You gotta wonder if we overpaid a tad.

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  31. “***Kevin Goldstein has his top Blue Jay prospects list up. Guess whose #1?***

    More interesting are #2 (Brett Wallace) and #3 Travis d’Arnaud…we gave the Blue Jays their top 3 prospects in exchange for 1 year of Halladay…a guy with a FNTC who only wanted to pitch in Philly. You gotta wonder if we overpaid a tad.”

    We’ve all been over this ad nauseum, but, yeah, that’s right. Ruben better have guessed right here on a lot of things. It was a much steeper price tag than the Mets paid for Santana but, then again, the Mets committed more years and money to Santana, so that comes into play too.

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  32. Uh,
    The Blue Jays paid the Phillies $6million to take their best player (and best pitcher in baseball) off their hands. In every other baseball town, they think the Phillies played the Jedi mind trick on the Jays to get that deal.

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  33. Carthurs: I’ve voted shreve a couple of times but hasn’t shown up on list yet, he belongs on.
    It seems to come down here to who thinks the two DP’s and a year of Lee to go along with Halladay is more valuable. To me replenishing could have been done without
    trading Lee. No blanton would not bring in the same as lee but assuming we got robbed( safe assumption) I believe we could have gotten the equivalent of Gillies and J.C for blanton if we shopped around. I’m going to say if you could take out horrible April he was probably 11-6 with an era around 3.5. That screams ok #2 or solid #3. He is also an innings eater which has value to a bullpen. Then we would get the picks when Le left and would potentially have a ring and a better package with the combination of prospects from trading Blanyon and draft picks.

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  34. Hopefully, the Michael Taylor for Wallace trade will go down as a terrible one for Toronto because I think Taylor can compete for ROL next year in a non pressure situation like Oakland. Does anyone think that BJ Rosenberg has a shot to make the big club in the long man role until Moyer comes back (assuming Kendrick takes Moyer’s starting spot for awhile)? Hopefully, they’ll sign one more arm but if they don’t, I think he has shot. He and Carpenter…

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  35. It’s funny. Almost two years after acquiring him, I’m not sure I know what to make out of Blanton. I can’t figure out if he’s soon going to be relegated into the dustbin of history or if he’s going to have a long and productive career like Rick Reuschel. It’s probably something in between and he probably is what the numbers tell us he is, which is a solid, innings-eating #4 starter. I’d prefer to have someone else as our 3, but Happ hasn’t gone that far yet and it still makes sense to use him as a 3, if only to keep the rotation in a righty-lefty-righty-lefty progression.

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  36. Shreve could very well be a top 5 guy next year. The talent is there – but we’ve got to see what he looks like coming back off the arm surgery. He basically missed two seasons.

    Guys like Castro, Rodriguez, and Villar have the talent to get into the top 10 next year. I’d put them on the list ahead of Shreve based on the fact that they played and had decent/good production this year. Just my two cents on who should be added to the list.

    I’ll actually be voting for DeFratus, Stutes, Worley, and maybe even Pettibone before any of the guys I listed above…

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  37. Where is Joe Savery in the voting? I mean he didn’t have a great year at AAA but he is still honing his skills

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  38. GTU, There is no way the Phillies or any other team would have received a package of prospects the level of Gillies and Ramirez for a league average pitcher, in the last year of arbitration, who is due $7 million.
    The Phillies could have moved him, but they would have received nothing. Your theory is not logical.

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  39. Savery is somewhere around #41 on my list. He is still honing his skills, but so are all the other minor league prospects.

    Murray, I think the Taylor/Wallace swap was need for need among the two clubs. I don’t think Toronto was down on Taylor, they just already have Adam Lind and Travis Snider manning corner outfield slots long term. Oakland meanwhile has Chris Carter at first base. Made sense for both sides.

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  40. Lind is a pure DH…at least Taylor can play a decent OF.

    The Wallace thing was a bit confusing in that light. I think Beane schooled them personally. Taylor has had better numbers than Wallace in the minors and he’s a pure athlete whereas Wallace is a 1B/DH type.

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  43. Isn’t it past time to declare Singleton by acclimation and move on to #14. He’s got about 70% of vote and nobody else has 10%, with over 300 votes tallied. The next positions should be tight. I’m thinking Worley next, although there are about a dozen roughly equivalent talents coming between here and #25.

    Shreve? Hard to vote for a guy in the the top 15, who has yet to throw a pitch.

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  44. Joe Savery may be out of the top 30, but I bet he gets some starts in Philadelphia this year.

    No not at 1B

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  46. nowheels, thats true about the As. but when the As get a player, they usually don’t suck at baseball like players the twins get.

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  47. remember Nathan, Santana, and many other were from outside. They got a bundle for that ill tempered catcher Pier-something. Who else do you know can steal a HOF pitcher from the Marlins in the rule 5 draft.

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  48. Think I’m going with Rosenberg next. I think he will be pitching in the Majors this year at some point (even if just a Sept call-up)

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  49. Suprised to see Brian Rosenberg get votes. A 23 year old, who pitched in Low A, most of the season. In the bullpen at that.
    If Worley and Stutes were in Lakewood last year, I wonder what their numbers would have been.

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  50. Fact of the matter is Rosenberg was downright filthy last year. He jumped to Reading and landed in the closer spot on the first night in town and showed great stuff. He sputtered a little but still finished the year with 73 strikeouts and 14 walks in 61 innings with 22 saves while holding hitters to a .211 average.

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  52. Mike Rosenberg is a college closer and he is nasty, has real chance to make this team this season. so does Swimmer.

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  53. The Phils are going to have to be prepared to develop that back end of the pen. That is why I’m hoping Mathieson, Rosenberg, and Schwimmer all have big years in AAA/AA. Lidge is scaring me and Madson has Boras as an agent so you don’t know how much he will be asking for in a contract.

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  54. The new leg thing with Lidge is troublesome. He seems to have a problem with honesty but why didn’t look it as a precaution. More innings eaten by the rotation would help
    the younger guys break in.

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  56. Judging by the names on voting list, seems no 1st round picks will make the top 20. How often does a team have their last three 1st rounders not make their top 20 prospects? Looks like no Savery, Hewitt, Collier or top pick, Dugan.

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  57. Other – Freddy Galvis

    Not that I’m voting for him here, but he should start to appear on the list around now, yes?

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  58. Mike77: if that’s true then we got shafted because we gave up a top infield prospect in cardenas, a pitcher who just had a very solid rookie season albeit in only 12 starts, (Outman) and a power hitting 1b man who just put up some big #’s @ AA. It may in fact be that your counter argument is not logical. I’m not saying Blanton is any where near the pitcher Lee is but 1) we may have been able to get more for Lee so that is not the standard and 2) we gave up a lot to get Blanton and 3) 7mil is not outrageous money for a solid #3 who you expect to get 12-16 wins and era of 3.5-4.25 with 200 ip. This type of guy has value!

    Anonymous I think all of those guys should start to filter in soon due to talent/upside. I especially still like collier from that group and expect a solid year and maybe top 10 on next years list.

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  59. Where does Escalona fall? He has been productive in each minor league stop and only allowed runs in 3 of the 14 games he pitched in the majors (7 in 3 1/3). His other 11 games 0 in 10 2/3.

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  60. Sorry OT again:
    GTU, that argument is not valid because you keep leaving out that the Phillies traded for Blanton while he still had 2 and half seasons of team control. That is huge, but you just disregard that.
    A league average pitcher, who just had a terrific 2007 season (#2 pitcher level), who was under team control for 2 1/2 seasons, at under market salary.
    vs.
    A league average pitcher, who just had an average 2009 season, who you lose control of, after the season.

    Why would a team trade 2 of its top 10 prospects for that? You would just sign Marquis or Pinero first.
    Why are you not getting that?

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  61. Cardenas is not as good a prospect as Gillies. Cardenas will hit, but it may be somewhat empty ( won’t produce runs). Gillies has two top drawer skills (fielding and running) and could end up with a top drawer OBP. Cardenas has no position right now.

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  62. Blanton was marketable if you paid half his salary. There are a few cash strapped teams out there with prospects who need help at the MLB level even if just to look respectable.

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  63. We are at prospect #13 and some are still woulda, shoulda, couldaing about the Lee trade?

    Guess it makes some sense to talk about Blanton since any prospects the Phillies got back by trading him would be falling somewhere around this spot.

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  64. Why not troll some other prospect websites and ask what they’d like to see their team trade for Joe Blanton? But really, why must this discussion come up seemingly in every damned thread?

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  65. Wow this one was over before it even got started! # 14 soon I hope.
    Mike77, good point i actually forgot that very important fact but a team could give a window to talk w/ him and sign him. He is a solid 3 and really saves wear and tear on a bullpen. even if he only netted us a comp. of either jc or gillies plus the 2 DP’s i think that would be well worth a legit shot at another ring. I like what RAJ has done it’s just that this one seems to say we don’t care enough to put the best product on the field.
    In a way this is relevant to the conversation of prospects but i’ll try to stick more to the minors, it’s just so hard because it directly effects the big club.

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  66. Lucky 13 is a done deal. 14 is going to be interesting. 4 guys all have 20 – 25 votes. New guys like Galvis are getting a little play. The next 5 or 6 votes will be guys who can go anywhere in the 15 to 20 range. I think things will be tight for these slots.

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  67. Leandro Castro in #13 on Minorleaguebaseball.com’s list of Phillies prospects. Shouldnt his name at least be on the list at this point?

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  68. Do you mean minorleagueball.com? That’s John Sickels’ personal rankings. I have Castro in the top 20. There are about four guys I’ll vote for before him, but Castro is better than some of the players in the poll currently.

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  69. Thank you for the correction. And yes, Castro is better than some of the 23 year old, relievers on this list.

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