Reader Top 30; #11

2010 Reader Top 30

Feel good story Scott Mathieson captures the final spot in the top 10, edging out lefty Antonio Bastardo. Mathieson is going to be very interesting to watch in 2010 and beyond. Guys coming off 3 major arm surgeries are obviously huge underdogs to ever be dominating in the big leagues, but it appears his raw stuff is in tact, so keeping him healthy will be priority #1. Its kind of silly to project anything for Mathieson in 2010, lets just hope he remains healthy and can contribute at the big league level in some form. Now that we’re past the top 10, voting becomes much more subjective and up in the air. Remember, if you vote “OTHER”, you have to post that you voted other and the player you wrote in so I can add him to the ballot for the next spot. In the voting for #10, someone wrote in Justin De Fratus, so he’ll be added. Check below for the next poll…

01. Domonic Brown, OF
02. Trevor May, RHP
03. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
04. Tyson Gillies, OF
05. Anthony Gose, OF
06. Domingo Santana, OF
07. Sebastian Valle, C
08. JC Ramirez, RHP
09. Jarred Cosart, RHP
10. Scott Mathieson, RHP
11.

79 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #11”

  1. Jon Singleton, Jiwan James will get my next vote when Singleton finally gets voted in.

    I keep passing on Bastardo, only because I do not view him as a prospect. He is a major league pitcher in my view. Would have taken him over Mathieson though.

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  3. Bastardo is rookie eligible in every definition. I don’t think it’s proper to pass him over just because he doesn’t fit into your own personal definition.

    I voted Bastardo over Mathieson because I believed Bastardo has an ability to pitch multiple innings if needed while Mathieson will need to be treated with kids gloves.

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  6. NEPP —
    “Colvins upside far outweigh’s Bastardo’s current ability”.
    Please, just look at what Bastardo did at Reading. I would love for Colvin to be that good when he reaches AA. Meanwhile, he’s pitched all of 2 innings. Fantasy always outstrips reality. At this point Colvin could turn into Sampson, whom we had equally high hopes for when drafted and has bombed thus far, or Shreve, who has yet to pitch, or if we get lucky, into Knapp. But there is many an opportunity for problems between 2 IP in GCL and AA, let alone majors, which is why I prefer to temper my enthusiasm at this point.

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  8. I think its unfair and disingenuous to compare Colvin to Sampson. Sampson was well thought of, but was coming from a cold weather region and was inexperienced. Colvin was considered one of the best prep arms available, and ranked in the top 40-50 in the entire country among all prospects. Far different prospects coming out of high school.

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  9. Like your option, how do the reds pay 25 million dollars for chapman, He is unproven and not all scout were sold on him. This why to me some teams will always be bad. Take that money and put it in the draft ,get some hard to sign great highschool kids. To me that is the better option, These teams never learn, pitchers are fragile, woods, pryor etc. I look at the phillies for about 2 million dollars more we could have had right now workman, gibson, saunders in our systems.

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  10. I voted for Brian Rosenberg a few times as a write In and he never was put on the list the nexted time? Is my vote not being counted?

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  13. Voted for Colvin— I like what I’ve read about him. I like Bastardo, but he’s an injury concern and after years of development his secondary stuff is still pretty fringy. A potential mid to top of the rotation righthanded starter in four years is much more valuable than a potential LOOGY tomorrow.

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  16. went with bastardo, for me i throw out the injury factor, that may be a bad philosophy. he had great numbers at AA like allentown said and has more of a pedigree at this time. looks like a 2 IP reliever at this point(which would be awesome for us) b/c of injury concerns but we can still hope he ends up becoming a SP instead. i go singleton next.

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  17. Mike how could they of not moved Blanton with the dirth of pitching in both leagues. They moved a 1 and kept a 5 because they wanted to.
    A while ago Ruben said a strange thing. That they had to keep the payroll under 140 ,no problem there. But then he remarked that the revenue stream might not always be there.
    Fear! Instead of growing they ……..
    I agree with your statement except Woods being Fragile. When they brought him back after a long rain delay (I think the 20k game) They started a very young pitcher down a slippery slope just as the Marlins did to Josh Johnson. Funny thing neither team was going anywhere.

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  19. I’m sticking with Bastardo for the 2nd time. I would have voted Mathieson this round.

    In my mind, Mathieson represents better raw talent and a higher potential value (solid set-up man), but Bastardo’s proven ability to strike out major-league lefties makes him more of a sure thing, albeit in a lesser role (LOOGY).

    For me this is where it gets really interesting. We had the top tier of prospects (first 3-ish guys), then second tier. Now we get into a lot of guys who are really intriguing, and possess a lot of potential, though they are a loong way from Philly.

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  20. colvin- should have been in the top 10. Think of all the teams that passed over him because they said he was unsignable. In my opinion, might have the best ceiling of all pitchers in the system.

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  23. I find it hard to put colvin high. He has really shown nothing to my knowledge, maybe I am wrong. Upside is good but there has to be better choice who have shown more than this kid. When he shows something then I could see it but its just my take on the poll.

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  25. Sorry pp just wanted to see how you felt about chapman and that money versus the draft, though you could get a lot of good top prospects for that kind of money?

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  26. Now that we have our consesnus Top 10, where do you think these players will start the season? Here are my projections:

    1. Brown – Reading
    2. May – Clearwater
    3. Aumont – Reading
    4. Gillies – Reading
    5. Gose – Clearwater
    6. Santana – Williamsport
    7. Valle – Lakewood
    8. Ramirez – Reading
    9. Cosart – Williamsport
    10. Mathieson – Philadelphia

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  27. I’ve voted Bastardo the last few slots, so no reason to change now. If some of the younger players had done a little more, I may have reconsidered, but Bastardo may start the year in the big leagues and he’s got a chance to be very good. It is not a difficult vote for me.

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  28. I voted for Bastardo. I like Colvin’s upside, but we haven’t seen him do anything yet. I’m comfortable that Bastardo can become a solid late inning reliever at least, if not more. At this point, I’ll take the near certainty that Bastardo offers over the upside from Colvin.

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  29. 1. Brown – Reading
    2. May – Clearwater
    3. Aumont – Reading
    4. Gillies – Reading
    5. Gose – Clearwater
    6. Santana – Williamsport
    7. Valle – Lakewood
    8. Ramirez – Reading
    9. Cosart – Williamsport
    10. Mathieson – Philadelphia

    That looks pretty close to being right, except I think Mathieson will start the year in LhV.

    You know, I keep looking at JC Ramirez’s statistics (yes, I know High Desert is a tough place to pitch – I get it) and, so far, I don’t see much to get excited about. I am not doubting the scouting reports – they may well be accurate. But, so far, his performance on the mound is not that impressive.

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  30. fyi – I did see Ramirez’s home/road split, but still, I’d liked to have seen more strikeouts.

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  31. Ramirez was a better than average pitcher in the Midwest League at the age of 19. The problem is that the Cal League is such an extreme environment that statistics are near impossible to evaluate. Even home/road splits are difficult because a pitcher becomes accustomed to making the most of his home park and then struggles on the road. (The Colorado Rockies are frequently the weakest road team in the Majors.) Ramirez is a guy who you almost have to give him the benefit of a doubt, IMO.

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  32. I went with Bastardo over Colvin. Bastardo, when healthy, has pitched very well. He will take over for JC Romero at some point, which means he is valuable (considering he makes peanuts compared to Romero). Colvin could rocket up this list next year though (hopefully so). He could be as high as 2, although so could many of the guys from 2-14.

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  33. Went with Colvin for same reason I voted for Cosart before. Value potential high ceiling starters over relievers.

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  34. Other – Vance Worley

    I know Bastardo was going to run away with this,and since this is the only way to add people to the list, I’m taking one for the team (besides, he’s not such a bad choice for #10 anyway)

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  35. So far a pattern has developed where the less known, more projectable guy jumps out to an early lead and then the more known name prospect runs away with it as more and more people start voting.

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  36. There are 2 ways a top prospect can fail to make it to the big leagues. He can get injured or he can fail to develop. Without any scientific evidence, I believe that for positional prospects the risk of injury is minimal and can be ignored, while for pitching prospects the risk of injury is great and may be the #1 reason their pitching careers are derailed. I think the biggest hurdle for youngsters like Trevor May, Jarred Cosart and Brody Colvin is building arm strength and staying away from arm injuries. Ranking prospects is a balancing act and the injury risk did not stop me from ranking May and Cosart in my personal top 8 and I do have Bastardo and Mathieson in my top 11, but it has stopped me from ranking Colvin, the youngest of the bunch ahead of DeFratus. One reason I liked Happ very highly last year and might now rank pitchers like Carpenter, Stutes, and Worley in my top 30 while others wouldn’t is that they have demonstrated an ability to “eat innings.”

    I like the progression DeFratus has shown increasing his innings by 37 and 27 respectively the last two seasons while posting 3 consistently excellent FIPs of 2.33, 2.55, 2.43. I expect him to log about 140 innings this season with a combined FIP of under 3.00 in Clearwater and Reading, so I will continue to pick DeFratus until he is off the board.

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  38. Looks like Bastardo finally makes it. It’s getting harder to choose. Will probably stop voting after top 15. Singleton, then young pitchers will round out my top 15.

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  39. Should have been Colvin here instead of Bastardo who will never be more than a lefty specialist. Ask yourself this, if the phillies were in trade talks who would you be more willing to part with Bastardo or Colvin, obviously Bastardo is much easier to part with than Colvin.

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  40. If half the guys we’re discussing get traded for 4th starter or someone of that ilk, I’m going to be very bummed out. I am happy, however, that it does look like our friends Bastardo and Mathieson are going to graduate to the Show with the Phillies (actually, they’ve already done so, but you know what I mean).

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  41. I do not agree with that DanDan.
    Bastardo is more valuable at this time. In order to replace Bastardo, a useful major league pitcher, you have to sign a F/A pitcher to a contract of 2million or waste years developing someone to replace him.
    To replace Brodie Colvin, you wait until the draft and pay a High School pitcher 800K to give up his scholarship.

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  42. Bastardo may be more valuable at this exact moment to the big club but that doesn’t make him a better prospect, I like Bastardo as a lefty specialist as soon as 2010 and for several years after but he will never be more than that, his ceiling is being J.C. Romero and I’m not sure he ever gets there whereas Colvin has the potential to be a top end starter or a closer. The fact that he has significantly more value in a trade is just an example that he is a more valuable prospect.

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  43. ****To replace Brodie Colvin, you wait until the draft and pay a High School pitcher 800K to give up his scholarship.****

    Assuming another pitcher of Colvin’s pedigree falls to us and is willing to forego college.

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  44. “the fact that he has significantly more value in a trade…”

    Where did you receive that “fact”.

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  45. Great analysis, Mike. I agree completely. When you put $ around these comparisions, I think it helps provide some perspective. I’m a big supporter of both Mathieson and Bastardo.

    On a related note, Chapman just signed for $30MM guaranteed. I’m curious how much people here would be willing to pay for Domanic Brown if he had to pay him fair market value or risk losing him to another team. $2MM? $5MM? $10MM?

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  46. fact wasn’t the right word, but I’m sure teams would have way more interest in him than Bastardo again nothing more than a lefty specialist

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  47. Other – Jonathon Pettibone

    I really like young pitchers with the ability to miss bats, so I’m hoping that Pettibone can get onto the voting.

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  48. Ken45: carpenter, stutes and worley should be in everybody’s top 30 and the latter 2 in many peoples top 20 imho.

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  49. More teams would pick Bastardo, I’m almost certain. I also disagree with the opinion that he is a lefty specialist. I think he’s a guy that can give you full innings without sweating matchups.

    I saw Jon Pettibone pitch in person in Williamsport this season. Strong fastball, but he has little command and no real secondary offering. I can’t justify rating him top 30 based on what I saw.

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  50. I chose Bastardo again. Some of these real young guys may have high upside but they have a long road to go yet and they too need to stay healthy. To not appreciate Bastardo’s ability and upside, you need to go look at his minor league stats the last few years plus take a look at his first two starts. This guy will definitely contribute to the major league team this year and it could easily be in a larger role than currently envisioned.

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  52. I have to disagree with you Alan, I like Bastardo as a lefty specialist but I don’t think he has stuff or the build to stay healthy and give you 75 effective innings in a season out of the pen. He has a nice fastball with a little movement but both the change and the slider are not overly reliable at this point. He looked like he slowed down his delivery with both pitches and failed to locate on a consistent basis. I hope he can be more but just watching him pitch I don’t see it.

    Teams aren’t on the lookout for lefty specialists but they do want guys with the potential to be top end starters.

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  53. As a fan Colvin has more value to me due to his upside, but I’m not sure Gm’s don’t take into account many other variables including finance.

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  54. Ken45

    I like the De Fratus thinking and logic. I must say he wasn’t anywhere on my radar. But after investigating him more, as a result of your prompting, I think he might be a sneaky good prospect. He seems to have three things crucial to success for Major League pitchers 1) durability 2) control 3) continuous improvement. The kind of guy that is easy to overlook but quite good and incredibly valuable.

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  56. Bastardo. Even if he “only” becomes JC Romero, has everyone forgotten how important JC was to our World Series? How did the bullpen do without him this past year? Set-up men are important, not as much as top end starters, but there’s just so much stacked against Colvin, as he really hasn’t done anything in pro ball. Bastardo will at least log some major league innings.

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  57. Finally looks like Bastardo will make it so I had to be part of that vote.

    A national columnist hinted he might have Johan Santanna upside. How much better of a comparison can you get for upside?!? What is Colvin’s upside potential? Justin Verlander?

    I do not agree that Bastardo will be as good as Santanna just that he is still projectable. Due to his injury situation and the status of the Major League team I think he is a reliever this year for the Phillies with potential to be a starter in 2011 if he pitches the entire year. He could have a JA Happ type of season and move to the rotation in case of injury.

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  58. DD, I do not see where you get this idea that the Phillies would get more in a trade for Brodie Colvin than Bastardo. Not that it has anything to do with who is the better prospect anyway. The Phillies could not get anything for Brodie Colvin, even if he was eligible for trade, imo. What imperical proof is there that 30 teams that passed on the opportunity to draft Colvin and bid for his services, would actually trade an asset for him?
    Bastardo would command more in return because he has shown improvement through the minors and is major league ready and cheap. I would bet he could bring more in trade than any prospect not in our top 8. Maybe even top 5. Colvin is worth no more than he was rated before the Phillies drafted. A supplementary 1st round pick.

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  60. Colvin slipped because of signability issues not because teams doubted his ability.

    #3 in Louisiana, and #43 in the entire country, now the report from perfect game USA this is non subscriber info so i’m under the impression i can post it:Brody Colvin is a 2009 RHP/OF with a 6’4”, 190 lb. frame from Lafayette, LA who attends St Thomas More. Brody has an easy arm action and his fastball sat in the low 90’s at the Metrodome. He has a fast arm and his fastball had very good life with late zip. His breaking ball had a sharp break and was a good second pitch. His arm and body project large. He showed athleticism by running a 6.92 sixty and also showed good hitting ability. He has strength in his swing with good power. He is a good student and has verbally committed to the LSU Tigers, but will also create serious strong draft interest. Sky is the limit!

    SKY IS THE LIMIT, listen there is nothing wrong with Bastardo but he isn’t even in the same league as Colvin

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  61. With all due respect to Colvin, I can’t justify rating a prep prospect that highly until he accumulates some minor league playing time. The The odds of a high school pitcher making the big leagues are pretty low. Baseball America, who knows as much of their scouting pedigrees as any publication, rated Bastardo higher. I can’t see rejecting that assessment. Colvin is an exciting arm but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

    And for the record, Bastardo’s minor league numbers are far better than Romero’s were.

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  62. I like to see exceptional achievements. MT’s .370 or Happ’s
    home runs allowed at Reading or Santana’s record at such a young age. So rating short season guys who haven’t shown
    a standout trait is hard.
    I don’t know where Bastardo will end up but to say only so far is a weeee bit premature.

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  63. Phx, care to share who that national columnist was that made such a lofty comparison? Seems far-fetched based on his stats to date. The Colvin-Verlander comparison seems a tad premature as well, but I’ll take it.

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  64. Bastardo v. Colvin is the classic floor v. upside debate. Either position is understandable.

    I’m going with Bastardo here. He’s an odds on bet to be a very solid lefty reliever for years to come, and with the flameout rate of young pitchers, I value that certainty pretty highly by comparison. Colvin has a chance to jump way up on this list next year, but personally, I want to see some pro numbers before I vault him into the Top 10.

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  65. I just hope they learned something from Knapp last year last year and limit innings for innings sake on non college guys in their first full season.

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  66. To Alan- I know that Bastardo’s minor league numbers are superior to those of Romero but at this point that doesn’t mean much to me since I see Bastardo as pretty close to being a finished product/he is what he is at this point. Bastardo really has no more room for growth and all he can hope to do is refine his secondary stuff, based on what I’ve seen from him and not based on any numbers I don’t think it ever gets significantly better. Thus I see him as a guy who can come in and get out lefties at a decent clip but no more while Colvin has huge upside and I would take that 100 days out of 100 against a guy that I see as only a specialist.

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  67. I like Bastardo a hair better than Colvin, but I do not think Bastardo is a sure shot to be in the Phillies bullpen this year. I think he may be better served spending at least another half season in AAA, which is what I expect to happen. I think it is right to consider which pitcher is worth more in a trade and wrong to consider what the Phillies current needs happen to be. Bastardo has put up sparkling rate numbers for 4 years in the minors with a 18-9 win loss record, an ERA of 2.58, and a 10:3.9 K:BB, BUT he has landed on the DL 3 consecutive years. If he had no arm issues and had the same rate stats he’d be the Phillies #1 or #2 prospect, so the question is, are the odds of him getting over his arm problems better than the odds of Colvin progressing in the minors as well as Bastardo did, except without significant arm problems?

    I must say these are interesting discussions and I find only the slimmest of margins between the prospects on the ballot plus Rosenberg (even Flande and James, whom I’m beginning to come around on) are worthy of consideration here. I also rate Singleton behind the 3 pitchers DeFratus and Bastardo, because he’s a a first baseman with just 2 career home runs, but as a 17-year old hitter I do think he is more projectable than a 18-year old pitcher, mostly because I think he has a much lower chance of getting injured (like Knapp, Matheison, Bastardo, to name 3 very recent examples) than Colvin or any young pitcher does.

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  68. If you all want to get a little depressed, just read today’s article from the Phils website quoting Dave Montgomery. He admits in the article that there will be a time when the team will not be as talented and when it won’t be as attractive to the fans. My head nearly exploded when I read that. What championship organization says that to its fans? Can you ever imagine the Yankees or the Lakers or the Patiots admitting that, in the future, they won’t be as good? I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, but I am.

    By the way, another hidden message you could take from the article is that, because the team believes it has a limited window of opportunity, there are likely to be more trades of prospects for established talent to capitalize on the window. You could read it another way too, but that’s what took out of it.

    Here’s the link: http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100111&content_id=7900552&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi

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  69. He’s honest. Let’s face it. Chase Utley is a historic player and no matter how good your farm system is, you’re unlikely to replace that kind of talent. What the Phillies are doing though is responding to that issue, making sure that they have some long term plans in place. I think many here have been upset at prospect trades but I think the strategy is pretty straightforward. Trade the close to the major players for whom there are no open spots, and stock with players several years out who will develop at a more convenient time frame.

    I did like this piece of the article…

    “”When you get that number into the mid [30,000s] you don’t want to turn off your other avenues of sale, because at some point we’re going to need them again, too,” he said. “You want to have tickets available for group customers. You don’t want to say you can’t come on a Sunday when they’ve always come on a Sunday. We’re not a business that would be ever totally sold out in the season, we don’t believe. Therefore, if you’re going to be dependent upon individual ticket purchases, six packs, walk up, group sales … you need to place some limits on season tickets sales.””

    Bingo. When the Yankees took over Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, they sold out the entire lower bowl for season ticket holders. Now those fans have dwindled and there is zero local/walk-up interest in the team.

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  70. I have taken a lot of abuse for saying something is “rotten
    in Denmark” but this article confirms what Ruben said over a year ago for some reason they are afraid they will lose their
    revenue stream. For me the lack of logic and business sense is
    incredible. Where do we go from here.
    I think we will be the top relief prospects this year but what after that??
    Good post Catch but if you are right why go backwards.
    SIGNED CONFUSED, DISTRESSED, and ……

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  71. Ugh.

    So anyway, it looks like Bastardo is taking #11. #12 is interesting, Jon Singleton and Brody Colvin. I had originally slotted Mike Stutes on my own list, but I don’t know if that will hold up to rigorous analysis. Stutes and Vance Worley are hard to evaluate. They were pushed up a level higher than usual. Had they both pitched a full season at Clearwater, their stats would look much, much better. As it is, I plan to stick by my instincts and the polish of Stutes.

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  72. I’m pretty sure it was Jason Stark who made the Sanatana comparison with Bastardo. However, outside of being short, Latin and left-handed I don’t see much else comprable about them.

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  73. I agree with the thinking on Stutes. His stats are somewhat unfairly hurt by the double jump to AA. He probably would have looked better with a slower progression through Clearwater. I have him a little ahead of Worley because his stuff is a little better (shown a little by the K rate and H/IP).

    I still would put Bastardo and Colvin ahead of him. Probably Singleton as well though I am wary of reading too much into a small sample of GCL stats. Remember how we all loved Collier a year ago? While Collier had a bad season I am not at all sold on Singleton being necessarily a better prospect than Collier. I also like Jiwan James in this area. Not because of the stats. It is his tools that suggest he is the closest thing to Dom Brown in our collection of low minors toolsy OF. James held his own last year offensively even though he had a long layoff and he had some injuries to work through. Stats are a big piece of evaluation, but tools and context do matter as well.

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  74. This debate of Floor vs. Upside occurred 2 slots too late. This debate should haave occurred at #9, with Cosart vs Bastardo. Cosart actually pitched a few innings. Colvin pitched 2 innings. That is not enough to judge his value.
    Brodie Colvin is the near equivalent of Trevor May at this time last year. Trevor May was ranked in the 20’s by BA last year. Colvin may have a K/9 of 12, in full season A ball, through June next season. He has not done it yet. He may have a k/9 of 6 and a BB/9 of 5 next year. He should not even be in the discussion yet.

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  76. The debate of Floor vs. Upside did occur 2 slots before and Upside won. Now it appear that Floor has taken the next 2 rounds.

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  77. “I’m pretty sure it was Jason Stark who made the Sanatana comparison with Bastardo. However, outside of being short, Latin and left-handed I don’t see much else comprable about them.”

    Actually, I can see the comparison. They have similar motions and release points and their fastballs are comparable. But Santana has amazing breaking pitches whereas Bastardo is still learning in that area. The dream scenario is that Bastardo gets a couple of out pitches and becomes like Santana. I’d be pretty happy if he turned into J.C. Romero circa 2008, but I do think his upside is higher than that. He’s an intriguing prospect – there’s more “up” than many people are willing to acknowledge.

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  78. I was surprised that Montgomery said they are losing money. I have trouble believing that. If they can’t make money in a year where they go to the World Series, following a year when they won the World Series, when are they going to make money? In a year when the team is bad? Just about every business goes through cycles. You need to make lots of money when times are good because you will lose money when times are bad.

    The other takeaway I had from that piece is that they really do value player development. Hopefully that will lead them to spend on the draft like they did in 2008 again.

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  79. Trust me, even if they are losing money on a cash flow basis (which is doubtful, to say they least), they are making up for it in a huge way in terms of the appreciation of the value of the franchise. The “losing money” argument with the Phillies borders on book cooking – it’s ludicrous and I certainly ignore it.

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