Reader Top 30; #1

2010 Reader Top 30

Ahhh, its that time of year again. The time where you, the loyal and faithful reader, begins to select the community version of our Top 30 prospects. Last season was a success, we had over 200+ votes per day, and it sparked lots of great conversation. As I mentioned a few days ago, we’ll take this moderately slow, since there isn’t a whole lot to discuss right now outside of the Rule 5 selections and the endless debate about who we should or shouldn’t trade for. Any comments of that sort will be deleted from these posts. If you’re new here, check out last year’s process by clicking the Reader Top 30 link. The basic premise is simple. Each day, 7 candidates get put into a poll, you the view votes, and the prospect with the most votes wins that day’s voting. He’s then eliminated from all subsequent votes. We move on until we get to 30. Its fun. Check below the fold for more…

As with last year, I’ll use the poll feature here and integrate it right into every post. Feel free to explain your vote in the comments section. I’m going to start today with the 5 names that seem somewhat reasonable in terms of voting, as well as an “OTHER” choice. If you vote other, you must comment and say who you named. This will be more important after we get past the top 15 or so and the names and voting becomes much more subjective. So, its round #1

77 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #1”

  1. I started with Drabek. I think he’ll see the big leagues at some time in 2010. I’m worried about the Verducci effect since Kyle had minimal innings the prior year because of surgery.

    Taylor and Brown are following closely. Taylor will also play in the Majors this year. It could be an injury call up or a trade but I think he’ll be there (not saying with which team). Brown’s a year or two away.

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  2. Also voted for Drabek since he seems to have the best combination of both up-side and proximity to the majors.

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  3. I vote Kyle Drabek, with a slight edge due to the higher than back of rotation starter projection, and the value of starting pitching, etc.

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  4. I voted Drabek too. Good hitting outfielders can be very valuable but can be acquired and replaced, but how often do you have a pitcher in the pipeline that has a chance to be a true ace? Even with a good team, I think it’s probably about twice a decade. As we saw in the last postseason (and in the year before, when Hamels ruled supreme), regardless of how many runs you score and games you win in the regular season, can really cannot place a price tag on the ability to throw a dominating starter at the opposition in the postseason. Drabek has a chance to be that kind of player and, for that reason, he goes to the top of my list.

    Now that the Halladay rumors are very hot again, we have to worry about what they are going to do with their prospects and young players, but I truly think that the organization views Drabek to be completely untouchable – a conversation ender, if you will – and, come what may, I think he’s not going anywhere.

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  5. I voted for Taylor. I think he will make an impact in the bigs this year.

    I am worried about Drabek…esp since last year we all thought Carlos Carrasco was going to be our 5th starter.

    Pitching prospects scare me.

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  6. I voted Drabek. My guess is he is not being discussed as a trade option. He will replace Jamie Moyer in the rotation after the All-Star break. Personally, I think he is the real deal and voted him 1st last year as well. Pitching wins.

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  7. I went with Taylor. The other two have great potential but haven’t realized it entirely yet. Taylor has. He has consistently destroyed the ball.

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  8. I cast my vote for Domonic Brown. His numbers superficially weren’t as impressive as Taylor’s but taken in the context of the FSL, I think Brown is the better prospect.

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  9. I voted for Domonic Brown. Right now, he appears to me to be the best bet for a future all-star. I’m not convinced yet that Drabek will get to that point.

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  10. Longtime reader, first poster – voted for Drabek. The drop-off from Drabek to the next best prospect in terms of readiness, positional need, and upside is much farther than the same dropoff for OF prospects. Makes him our highest valued prospect.

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  11. Brown – He is there because he has the tools to go far beyond his numbers (which are already good). Drabek would be next for me, though I still have doubts about him as a top starter.

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  12. Drabek. A potential staff ace trumps a potential All-Star outfielder (or two, in this case), but barely. The tougher decision will be with how to rank Brown and Taylor in slots 2 and 3.

    – Jeff

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  13. TJC: welcome to the blog. Or, more accurately, the blog commentariat!

    Have to say, though, that I disagree with the premise that “positional need” factors into the equation. If the Phils’ clear best prospect was a second baseman, I wouldn’t bump a middling third baseman above him simply because of the needs of the big club.

    I voted for Brown. Generally, when I see comparable prospects — one a position player, and one a pitcher — I’m more liable to lean toward the position player. TINSTAAPP and all that, but I also think that Brown has a higher upside than Drabek: an All-Star right fielder who hits for average, draws walks, steals bases, and plays above-average defense is more valuable than a #2 (maybe a borderline #1) starter. Just my two cents, anyway.

    I’ll go out on a limb and say that first three are pretty obvious, and #4 is probably locked in as well. Honestly, I don’t think we’ll see a lot of real debate until #5 at least.

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  14. I voted for Taylor. I can’t find any weaknesses in his game. Drabek has a major weakness; lefthanded hitters. They hit .322 of him last year in AA with 65 hits in 48 innings. There are few if any righty specialist pitchers in baseball. Get this man a changeup! I expect that Brown will be good, but he apparently still has some lapses.

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  15. I went Drabek, though it’s clear who the top 3 are in whatever order, it just depends on what you value more. It’s more expensive to acquire a top of the rotation starter as a free agent(not to mention more teams involved in the bidding for those players) and more costly in terms of prospects to trade for one as well. Since Drabek/Brown/Taylor are so close rankings wise I’ll go with the pitcher. The real question is who’s number 4? We’ll have to wait til next week on that one.

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  16. Drabek for me. Pitching always comes first in my book. The only way he wouldn’t be first is if we had a stud infielder comparable to Brown or Taylor. Like someone else said, pitching wins.

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  17. I wrote in for Damarii Saunderson.

    Seriously though, Drabek. A team needs three things to win a championship: pitching, pitching and pitching.

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  18. I voted Dom Brown because he is the most coveted player for our farm system in every trade along with Drabek. His upside is often speculated about as being of the highest tier and is going to start the season in AA, which means he is putting it together. Also he would probably be ranked as a higher prospect at his position (maybe 4th best outfielder in the minors). In all reality it doesn’t really matter who you rank first as the other will be second and the exact rankings are meaningless as both are likely among the top 25 prospects in baseball.

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  20. I went back and forth between Drabek, Brown, and Taylor, but in the end, the positional value of an ace or a #2 SP outweighed that of a corner OF for me.

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  21. SIFPA Says:
    I voted for Taylor. I can’t find any weaknesses in his game

    I not only second the thought but will add there is seemingly no weakness in his personality. No Milton Bradley here!

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  22. I know that we are all tired of this talk, but the most recent report about Taylor/Brown being traded for Halladay got me thinking about who I would rather keep. I kept on going back to Taylor because a lot of Brown’s game is still potential and upside. We have no idea what will happen to players once they make it to the show, but Taylor has gone out and done it time and time again even after all of the knocks on his game. I don’t know, there’s just something about him that screams solid, hardworking, Philadelphia athlete. If he could be our Chase of the outfield with his passion and work ethic he’ll be with us for a long while.

    He’ll be my #2.

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  23. I voted for Drabek. While Taylor is major league ready right now and projects as a very good major leaguer, pitching wins and cheap quality pitching is incredibly valuable. I think Drabek has a chance to be a 1 or a 2. All the concerns above are legit and he’s not ready now and needs the full year in AAA. However, he’s a real good athlete and a real competitor (Carrasco is neither by the way) and he’ll improve and could be very good. I’m expecting that he’ll be #1 on this list next year too when he goes to camp to win a job but I think that’s still a year away.

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  24. Dom Brown for me, though when I think about it, it seems like Drabek might be closer to the big league roster, which should be a consideration.

    I couldn’t participate in this vote last year b/c I didn’t know enough, but after following this blog for a little over a year and paying more attention to the minors I feel like I can contribute this year. Thanks 🙂

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  25. Taylor it is. easy for me, since i have been followin him since his exit from Stanford. 5 tool outfileder with tremedous power although his strength currently is gap to gap. Wonderful Kid who PLAYS THE GAME THE RIGHT WAY, Is intellectual beyond his years and would be an instatnt fan favorite..Would make phillies fans foget any one of their current outfileders immediatley

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  26. Close, but I took Drabek because he is closer to the bigs, and I think he could be a 2 or a 3. However, I think Brown has a little bit higher upside.

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  27. Went with D. Brown – Super Star Potential – and he’s putting up really good numbers.

    Drabek is great, but I see him as a #2, not a superstar.

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  28. Question: If Domonic Brown was to be on Daily News Live with Paul Domowitch, would they call each other Domo?

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  29. Voted Brown. I still have concerns about Drabek’s durability. Not too many 6 feet tall number right handed 1s or 2s.

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  30. One of the things I enjoy about this feature is that there’s no universal criteria for why people vote as they do. The arguments for Drabek and Taylor are strong–and I’ll echo that Taylor seems as impressive a person as he is a ballplayer–but to me it’s Brown. That he’s 22 and probably not close to a finished product makes the difference; he’s already demonstrated a capacity and hunger for improvement, which makes me a believer that he’ll be a special player when he does reach the bigs in two years or so.

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  31. Billy Mac…there are plenty of 6 foot tall #1’s who are right handed. Roy Oswalt, Pedro Martinez, and Greg Maddux pop right into my mind. I’m sure I could think of more if I put some actual thought into it. I wouldn’t really put too much weight into that stereo-type.

    I voted Drabek, as you may have guessed. I just think the value of a #1/2 starting pitcher in today’s game is so much higher than a talented corner outfielder.

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  32. I voted drabek, hes drawn so much attention with his ability, kids 21 years old and throws flames with a power curve. Billy Mac, to harp on what GregA was saying, what about Tim Lincecum he is like 5’9. I think drabek is going to see a little time during july, august, september months as an extra starter or an extra bullpen arm to see how he fares against ml batting.

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  33. Domonic Brown. Tools tools tools, coupled with actually being able to hit a baseball. It’s very close for me between Brown and Taylor, but the age difference and a little projectability make the call for me.

    About Drabek. I know we have a love affair with our best pitching prospect. But I’d trade him in a heartbeat. He is not a dominant minor league pitcher. That does not translate to a 1 or 2 starter. It’s nice that he’s been hyped so much because it increases his value in a trade. But I fear everyone will be wildly disappointed when he does take the mound in Philly. As someone noted earlier, he can’t get lefties out in the minors. That does not bode well for him or us.

    I actually think if he didn’t have the famous name and a head start, and if he wasn’t a first round pick, we’d be talking about at least three other lower level pitching prospects ahead of him, much like most of us project Brown ahead of Taylor.

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  34. First time posting here… gotta be Drabek. Sick curveball, hard fastball with life and the son of a Cy winner. If he can avoid injuries, he has a chance to be pretty special.

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  35. I have seen Brown, Drabek, and Taylor play on a few occasssions and having watched them up close feel that the praise offered each of them is warranted. All clearly stand above the rest on the field from a tool set and usually by their performance on the days I saw them play.

    I think Taylor is the best prospect and will prove a tremendous asset for a long time. He presents the opportunity for exciting play because of his physical skills, which he has now demonstrated at four stops over the past 2 years, while despite being older, was in a college program which curtailed his skill growth. It is my belief that we have only seen the begining of his real player development and that could mean similar dominance at the major league level in a couple of years.
    Taylor is involved in a transition which is also being governed by a sharp mind. Watch him play and you will see adjustments being made on the spot whether it be at the plate, on the bases, or in the field. His approach seems to be of one managing a game not just an athlete assigned a spot to participate. He plays with a calculation of best odds not just arbitary attempt. Viewed over a few games it is evident he has a plan for each outing. His mental approach should give him a great opportunity to maximize his potential.
    Listen to Taylor being interviewed, (I suggest pulling up the broadcast booth interview he did in Philly after recieving the Paul Owens Award, which is on the Phillies site from September) and you will find that he his very likable and informative. He handles himself with humor and intelligence.
    Taylor represents someone that could elevate the game through special performances on and off the field and in sports entertainment that is a best case scenario.

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  36. Taylor.

    Most consistent to this point, most ready to be a steady, even great contributor.

    Drabek & Brown may surpass him in MLB productivity, but also have more question marks.

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  38. aksmith: Agreed with you on Brown being #1, but I think you’re being a little harsh on Drabek.

    Drabek’s Double-A numbers weren’t the greatest, but you have to put them in perspective. He’d pitched a grand total of 109.2 pro innings heading into this year, and he was coming off TJ surgery. Scouts who saw him at the end of the year clearly though he was tiring, and for my money, a guy with very little pro experience who’s not at his best but still manages to post a 3.83 FIP in his first crack at Double-A is an impressive prospect.

    If he’d been throwing 150+ innings a year for the past three years and put up those numbers in Double-A, then I’d be worried. But given the TJ surgery and recovery, I think his numbers were just fine last year.

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  39. Friar – I hope you are correct about Drabek. And I could certainly be incorrect. But it’s also not like the cupboard is bare a little lower on the pitching depth chart on the farm. And the fan rankings from about 7-15 will very likely attest to that.

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  40. I vote Michael Taylor. Drabek may be a little over rated. He only has 2 pitches and gets bombed by Lefthanders. Taylor hits at every level and gets underated. Taylor being rated #6 by BA last year was a joke.

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  41. I picked Taylor.

    While I think Brown is the better prospect, I felt Taylor did everything right and had a better year than Brown. So I picked him for #1.

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  45. I voted for Taylor. Brown has the higher upside but Taylor is more MLB ready and a better player right now.

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  46. I voted for Domonic Brown. I think Brown, Taylor, Drabek are very close and the cream of the organization, but that a position player is a surer thing and ultimately more valuable than a pitcher.

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  47. Can someone answer a question… why does Neil Sellers get no love? The guy who was our ’09 AA MVP isn’t even a blip on the radar screen!! Not saying he’s our top prospect but in 6 minor league seasons, he has never hit below .271. He has comfortably settled into a 15-20 HR groove and he plays 3B… he hits the ball everywhere he goes, including the Mexican Winter league where he’s hitting .371. Is his fielding that terrible? Just curious…

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  48. two phillies prospects of similar pedigree, both college picks:
    age23 Clearwater FLOR A_adv PHI 130games 553PA 490AB 67R 149H 32DB 1TR 23HR 82RBI 0SB 50BB 151SO .304BA .374OBP .514SLG .889OPS 252TB
    age23 2 Teams 2 Lgs AA-AAA PHI 116games 491PA 428AB 74R 137H 28DB 5TR 20HR 84RBI 21SB 48BB 70SO .320BA .395OBP .549SLG .944OPS 235TB
    Player 1 is Ryan Howard, Player 2 is Michael Taylor. I am not saying they will follow similar career paths, but it is not a stretch…the age 22 season of ryan howard had him batting .280 with 19HR’s, 87 RBI’s and 145 SO’s in 493 AB’s at class A lakewood…Michael Taylor at age 22 batted a combined .346 with 19 HR’s, 89 RBI’s and 89 SO’s in 492 AB’s
    MICHAEL TAYLOR has put up better numbers at higher levels at the same age as Howard and is finding himself blocked by a declining major leaguer (Thome/Ibanez)…Taylor gets my vote because unlike Brown, he provides balance with a Right Handed Bat. If the Phillies could find a taker for Ibanez, it would free up money for Lee and Blanton while providing a more potent outfield and line-up. Forget about Halladay, I would prefer a 2011 outfield of Taylor, Werth, Brown…and a starting 5 with Lee, Hamels, Happ, Blanton, and Drabek.

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  51. Kyle Drabek gets my nod for #1 because he’s a starting pitcher with top-of-the-rotation potential. Pitching is the name of the game; fortunately our front office feels the same way. I’m not 100% sold that he’ll become an ace or even a #2 but at least he should develop into a solid starter. These days that’s nothing to sneeze at, especially since he’ll be cost-controlled in his first seasons.

    Meanwhile, I feel Michael Taylor is a special player poised to have a great career. Based on how well he handled the jump to AA, I expect to see him in the bigs at some point during the upcoming season. By now I have fewer doubts about Taylor than I do any other Phillies prospect. All signs seem to point to stardom. Sure, the road to stardom is littered with guys who looked like a sure thing but never made an impact but even so I can’t help but predict great things for him.

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  52. So in the past 30 years, you name 3 RH ace pitchers not over 6′. Kind of proves my point. Jury is still out on the durability of Lincecum – who is a freak. I still say Drabek is our future closer.

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  53. ****So in the past 30 years, you name 3 RH ace pitchers not over 6′. Kind of proves my point. Jury is still out on the durability of Lincecum – who is a freak. I still say Drabek is our future closer.****

    Drabek is actually 6’1″ now.

    And to answer your question:

    Roy Oswalt – 6’0″
    Pedro Martinez – 5’11”
    Doug Drabek – 6’1″

    I could easily go on. There is no proof that being 6’2″ or taller has any bearing on pitching health…and plenty of guys have shown that to be true.

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  54. Oh and personally, I voted for Drabek.

    1. Drabek
    2. Brown
    3. Taylor
    4. d’Arnaud
    5. May

    IMHO.

    I like Kyle’s upside as a potential #1 over Taylor and Brown at this point.

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  55. I don’t get why people are calling drabek a 2 pitch pitcher. he has three pitches, two are already rated as plus (fastball curveball) And the change up has been getting better by all reports. he has what, like 40 innings in double A where lefties hit him well. curves normally don’t show platoon splits, so its probably his fastball. 40 innings is like nothing.

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  56. “Can someone answer a question… why does Neil Sellers get no love? ”

    He’s 27, which means he has little to no development room left. His performance was nice in Reading, but those numbers simply don’t translate to MLB production. And he doesn’t figure to get much better.

    “So in the past 30 years, you name 3 RH ace pitchers not over 6′. Kind of proves my point. Jury is still out on the durability of Lincecum – who is a freak. I still say Drabek is our future closer.”

    Twelve pitchers 6′ or under have won 100+ games in the last 30 years, including Maddux, Martinez, Tim Hudson, Kevin Tapani, Tom Gordon, Kevin Appier, Oswalt, Mike Boddicker. Those are just the righties, there are twice as many lefties. I don’t see Drabek’s size being an issue at this point.

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  57. Charlie Manuel compared Kyle Drabek to Tom Seaver.
    Tom is 6’1″ and won 311 games in a 20 year career with an ERA under 3.00.
    I don’t expect the same career out of Kyle but I’d be happy with 200+ wins in a 15 year career. Because I think that is doable, and I value pitching more highly, I voted for Kyle Drabek as our #1 prospect.

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  60. completely off subject but read about this interview with amaro. he said there is no chance that drabek will start in the bullpen to begin. he said quote ” kyle drabek will not be part of the phillies bullpen plans there is no chance the team will break in drabek as a reliever he will probably start in AAA

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  61. The poll function is down for me. It better come back soon before I change my mind again. I keep trying to define for myself what a #1 prospect is – kind of like the MVP arguement. I’m going with “my estimation of who will have the best career” as opposed to “who will help the Phillies most.” I think that hurts Drabek because the latter definition includes his value to other teams and as a Phillies trading piece (which value Taylor has lost because of being blocked).

    But the career definition does help Drabek in my mind for one reason – it makes you evaluate a pitcher as a pitcher and not by what contribution he will make to the team. Because in that respect, I think every day players are more valuable.

    I’ve been saying Brown for a while now because I like the high ceiling thing. I didn’t care that Taylor was more of a known commodoty. But my impression of Taylor is that he will adjust when needed and be a more consistent player over the grind of a season and over the years.

    Now hopefully the poll function will come back and I can make my Taylor vote count. And then vote for 1A and 1B.

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  62. As usual, I think I’ll be heavily in the minority here, but I voted for Taylor. He’s shown more at a higher level that Brown, although he has been older at each level he’s played. I also think that Brown’s defensive limitations have come a bit more into focus this year, and reduced his superstar prospect status just a bit. He’s fast, he has a good arm, but he takes bad routes. Quite a few outfielders never figure out how to take a good route to a ball, and, until he does, he’s not #1 to me. Drabek is a year away from serious surgery, and too much of an injury risk for me to call him a #1 either. Taylor just doesn’t have any holes.

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  63. I can’t recall where, but I thought I read this season that Drabek had a growth spurt and added a few inches to his frame since being drafted. Can anyone recall it or confirm it?

    I voted for Drabek #1 and have a blanket over Taylor and Brown. I got to see Domonic in Reading this year and he roped a hit to RF in his first AB and didn’t reach base in his next 3 ABs. He’s lean, super athletic and fun to watch run the bases. I know he and Taylor are tall at 6-5 and 6-6 like Jayson Werth. I just hope their power increases as their bodies mature.

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  64. I wonder who the write in vote was for…

    I went with Drabek- value of a number 1 starter compared to an all-star OF, and all that. You guys have it covered i think.

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  65. Had to be Taylor for me. Of the ‘big 3’, he’s the only one that’s really backed up his talent with high-level production. Brown’s power is still potential, though his patience at the plate is solid for such a young player. Further, Taylor seems to be the better defensive player. He seems to throw out a lot of runners, and while Brown has similarly drawn praise for his arm, he’s also been noted for his poor routes and still developing glove work.

    As for Drabek, I’m not quite sure how he can be confused with a potential “ace”, other than to conclude that scouts must absolutely rave about his stuff, his mechanics, and his general approach to pitching. While he was outstanding in his brief time in high-A ball this past year, his numbers dipped across the board when he was promoted to Reading. His FIP was approaching 4.00 in Reading. Most concerning for me, was the dip in his strikeout rate following the promotion. I understand he’s coming off Tommy John surgery and I still have all the confidence in the world he’ll be “what Brett Myers should have been”, but an ace?

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  68. To me, the question with Brown is: “Is he Roberto Clemente lite or Lastings Milledge? Until some of the questions about him are answered in the next year or two, I have only some scouting oohs and ahhs to go by and we all know how scouts can be mesmerized by dramatic athleticism, with visions of sugar plums dancing in their heads. Brown’s patience and athleticism point to him being better than Milledge, but no guarantee he will be an all-star. I also favor Taylor over Brown at this point in time. I think Taylor is as certain as any prospect to be a solid-to-all-star corner outfielder. If scouts are correct and Brown is better, then we have an amazing tandem there, with Gose maybe providing the stellar middle defense. (Don’t mess with that for one year of Halladay!)

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  69. I voted for Taylor. I was at the game he hit for the cycle. He’s the only one of the group that has really shown his potential on the field and is closest to being MLB ready. Too bad he’s blocked for the time being and I hope he doesn’t get traded.

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  71. I constantly think to myself that Drabek will be another Brett Myers. He has the talent to be an ace, but is inconsistent and HR prone. I don’t really have the stats to prove my point, but I just don’t think Drabek will be all that he is cracked up to be. I hope I am wrong.

    Brown gets my vote because I think he has the highest ceiling of everyone, which IMO is what this poll is asking. Not who has the most trade value right now (I know we all are getting caught up with the ROY talks), and not who can help the club soonest, or where our holes are in the roster. I’m voting on who will be the best player in 5-10 years…and that would be Brown for me, with Taylor right behind, and Drabek 3.

    I’m also starting to become a big fan of May, and I really really hope that he isn’t included in any deal this offseason…which I think might happen if we decide to keep Drabek (kind of like Knapp).

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  72. Went with Taylor. To me, Taylor’s production this year is where Brown hopes to be next year, and Drabek’s Tommy John surgery scares me off.

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  73. i wouldn’t call him home run prone. I’d call him about average. he had some trouble in double A, but he didn’t give up one in A+

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  74. Breck Says:

    I constantly think to myself that Drabek will be another Brett Myers.

    Lets hope that if the young fellow strays, Ruben can reign him in. One has to wonder if Myers had had the arm problems Drabek had we would of been different.

    One aspect of retaining MT I would think he could take on the positive leadership the players have now when his time comes.

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  75. I voted for Brown. He’s got the most upside of the players in the poll. I am mildly concerned about Drabek’s drop in dominance when he moved up to Double-A but you might be able to attribute that to being a bit tired since he hadn’t racked up many innings in years prior and he was coming off arm injury. I think it’s Brown, Taylor, Drabek for the top three in this system.

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  77. Despite the joy Galvis brings to me watching him in the field, I will go with the “beast” aka Michael Taylor here.

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