Draft Report Card notes from BA

The full draft report card is subscriber only info, which you can see here if you’re a subscriber. Some of the highlights;

* Hyatt’s slider is excellent and he’ll be on the fast track if he’s kept in the bullpen
* Singleton has great all around offensive profile, Phillies liked him back in 2008 and have followed him for a while
* Altherr has big upside but is really raw and has very little baseball experience
* Dugan has average to plus power from both sides of the plate

There ya go.

68 thoughts on “Draft Report Card notes from BA

  1. I was happy with this year’s draft thanks to the Singleton and Colvin signings. In addition, enough late picks did well enough in their first half season to make it feel like another strong draft. Of course, we won’t really know for five years.

  2. has big upside but is really raw and has very little baseball experience

    It’s a mystery why the Phillies continue to draft guys who aren’t really ballplayers. But I digress.

    Interesting to see that write up of Dugan, since he didn’t really hit for much power in the GCL. It will be nice to see if some of his power shows up next year. I’m guessing he’ll be in Williamsport.

    And Singleton definitely was a guy I followed closely – solid all around offensive numbers from him.

    – Jeff

  3. That’s encouraging on Dugan. Given that he’s probably going to wind up in a corner, and that he doesn’t look like a contact-oriented hitter (at least based on his GCL numbers), it’s good to hear that his power from both sides projects to be 55 or above.

    Also glad to hear that Jeremy Barnes impressed with the glove. Even if his range is a little underwhelming for short, it would be helpful to leave him there for the time being, as I think he could wind up a solid utility player when all’s said and done.

    And I’m debating what to do with Hyatt at this point. If the fastball is up to 94, as reported, and the slider projects to be an effective third pitch, I’m inclined to give him a shot to start. James, what would you do with him?

  4. Bill: I’d be inclined to start Singleton at Lakewood. He can play 1B most days, and DH when he’s not in the field. I know he’ll only be 18, but he demonstrated fantastic control of the strike zone in the GCL, and I don’t think he’d be overwhelmed.

  5. Friar,

    I see no need to rush Singleton. I think we were saying the same things about Collier’s plate discipline this time last year, and he never got it going this year. Start him at WPT, and if he does well after say 100 ABs or so, I’d be willing to promote Singleton to Lakewood. Of course, I’m always wrong with these things, so take my opinion with a grain of salt

    – Jeff

  6. Dominic Brown and Werth are toolsheds. Not sure how raw they were, but guys like them are why the Phillies draft as they do.

  7. Oh boy, here goes that “toolshed” discussion again . . . .

    In any event, to beat the dead horse yet again, I’m fine with toolshed players, particularly those who are drafted in middle to lower rounds and those who are acquired because they seem to have great all-around ability but have everything together (see Jayson Werth and our newest major league toolshed player, Ben Francisco, who is a pretty darned good athlete). It’s the high draft pick toolshed players who have no demonstrated aptitude in baseball that have me puzzled, at least as relates to the Phillies. But, yeah, you generally want to draft players with a higher upside – it’s basically a sound philosophy – the trouble is in the execution.

  8. Looking at Jayson Werth’s minor league numbers, he had plate discipline from the day he stepped onto a baseball diamond. Always a percentage basestealer too.

  9. It said Way had the best change of the guys we drafted, followed by Hyatt and Hernandez. Interestingly, in listing most interesting background, the list Wine’s kid and crosschecker scout Kohlscheen’s kid, but miss Amaro’s nephew.

    BTW, our drafted spending listed as second lowest in MLB.

  10. “BTW, our drafted spending listed as second lowest in MLB.”

    Given that most teams spend a huge portion of their draft budget on their first round pick alone, is that any kind of surprise? Slot money for the 75th pick is a mere third of what the 20th guys on up are given.

  11. Speaking of draft reviews any chance on seeing a write up on the 2004 draft…..i always find it interesting to compare the players projections with what they did in minors.

  12. There’s nothing wrong with drafting physically gifted guys – it’s just that ‘toolshed’ has taken on a life of it’s own and has become codeword for ‘can’t hit’.

  13. “toolshed”, I think, is synonymous with “is physically gifted in many ways, but does not have advanced baseball skills.”

  14. The 2004 draft? Don’t know how much I can quote, since although very dated, it is still copyrighted.

    Golson had started well in the GCL, hitting .292 with a lot of steals, so the review was still very, very positive. Loved his speed, loved his athleticism, loved his defense. He was listed 2nd for best pro start among our draftees, and the comment “but he doesn’t have a weakness” kind of jumped out at me.

    Best pure hitter was Gamble, best raw power was Miaso, best fastball and breaking ball was Baldwin. Obviously none of that panned out. Closest to majors Jaramillo.

    Second best fastball was Bisenius and second best breaking pitch was Happ.

    No mention of Marson. The assessment lists Happ, Baldwin as interesting lefties.

    In fairness, the BA overall assessment didn’t exactly rave about the draft and their analysis of the farm as a whole was good for impact players and poor for depth. Also, they did rate Happ as our #16 prospect and Marson at #27. Jaramillo came in at #13, Miaso at #30, Baldwin at #17, Gamble at #21, and Golson (choking) at #4.

  15. On Valle – what he is doing right now is almost unfathomable. He’s out there competing with good AA and AAA caliber players and he’s still dominating. If this is a preview of coming attractions, he could easily end up next year in AA and, my guess, is that he is going to have to switch positions (or at least get more experience at another position) because Chooch isn’t going anywhere soon and D’Arnaud is said to be a better receiver than Valle. Any sense of whether this kid could handle another infield position, such as third or even first?

  16. I don’t think Chooch is blocking D’Arnaud or Valle. Realistically they are both three years away and even if it’s two years spending their first year as a back-up would probably be a good idea and mesh with the Phillies organizational philsophy of taking things slowly.

  17. Valle has more value as a hitting catcher in a trade than he does in Philly as a 3B. Not all these guys have to end up in a Phils uniform to bring the team value.

  18. Valle should be a 1 step at a time player. From all reports his defense is very raw. Also, remember this past couple of weeks is still a very small sample size where Valle is an unknown quantity to his opposition. The ball also is a little juiced in Mexico. What he is doing is phenomenal, but we should not overrate him because of that. He should start in Lakewood and earn his way to Clearwater both offensively and defensively. Both D’Arnaud and Valle should catch 75% of the games whereever they are this year. One of them should develop by the time Ruiz is starting to slip a bit or hitting free agency.

  19. I agree with the one step at a time approach – the Phillies are very smart about not rushing young players.

    As for what he is doing, it could very well be that they’re trying to sneak fastballs past the young guy (a typical pitcher’s ploy for an untested hitter). Once he has 100 ABs or so and sees some good breaking stuff, we should get a more realistic view of his progress. Still, the performance is so off the charts, that it’s difficult to ignore, even with only about 25 ABs. You don’t hit 6 homers in 25 at bats unless you’ve got a ton of ability. It’s staggering.

  20. From Jim Callis chat:

    Mike (Utica, NY)
    Any surprises in the Phillies top 10 and is there hope for Zach Collier?

    Jim Callis (2:36 PM)
    I won’t give away much, but I’ll tell you that Domingo Santana is No. 10. You’ll have to check our website and magazine for anything more. As for Collier, I loved that pick at the time it was made but he had a pretty dreadful first full year. He’s still very young, so there’s hope.

  21. Murray Says:
    October 28, 2009 at 12:43 PM

    Valle has more value as a hitting catcher in a trade than he does in Philly as a 3B. Not all these guys have to end up in a Phils uniform to bring the team value.

    even more valuable if he can ALSO play some third. Why is this
    so hard.

  22. nowheels, its mostly because playing catcher is so hard. do you want him to learn to be a good catcher? then he can’t really focus on anything else. And no one will care if he can play third base. Valle is a catcher, the most difficult defensive position. 3rd base is on the easy side of the middle of the difficulty spectrum. It doesn’t add value if he’s not more than mediocre at both. if he’s a good third baseman, well, there are lots of third baseman who hit. But if he’s a good catcher and can hit, he becomes extremely valuable.
    is utley more valuable because he can play first as well as secend? no because second is so much harder. its the same difference in difficulty from cathcer to third as second to first.
    its not so hard, just also not very smart.

  23. My view is 20 games or so can rest his legs etc. Herzog wouldn’t agree with your idea of third base defensively. He called it the most important infield position. But everyone has a view. I also believe that a catcher who has played another position is more respected by team mates. I like a catcher who commands the game.

  24. yeah, because catchers really lack in respect. They are like kickers, outsiders that nobody respects

    ???

  25. Every one has a veiw, and herzog’s is wrong. third base is the second least important position in the infield to first base. its really not much of an opinion- having a poor feilding third baseman hurts your team less than having a poor feilding shortstop or second baseman. a team with a bad third baseman is a better fielding team than a team with a bad shortstop or second baseman.

  26. If that was truly Herzog’s belief, then why didn’t he move his best defensive player, Ozzie Smith to 3b rather than keeping him at SS and having Ken Oberkfell play the position?

    Have to admit the concept of a catcher gaining additional respect or being able to better command the game by playing a few games at 3b is way over my head.

    My experience is that catchers get respect from their teammates by being willing to taking the daily pounding behind the plate and continuing to block pitches, take on base runners, and by calling a good game.

  27. “I also believe that a catcher who has played another position is more respected by team mates.”

    Does not compute.

  28. Tim Kennelly caught 36 games and played third in 13 games in 09. But he has only an .877 career fielding percent at third and committed 5 errors in 10 games at the hot corner with Clearwater last year. His career catching fielding percent is only .979. This shows how difficult it is to be both a good defensive catcher and third baseman. Though with his strong arm when I saw him play he has the makings of a better defensive catcher. His best position with his strong arm and reasonable speed is right field where he started for the Aussies in the 09 World Cup. But of course the Phils have little need in the system there. Unless he gets snapped up in Rule 5, I would project he will remain as a utility guy at AA or AAA in 10.

  29. as much as i like the guy i would love to see him picked up by a team that really needs someone at that position

  30. I’m sorry but I could care less if valle can play 3rd, I agree with the majority of the comments made here to keep him as a catcher strictly and let him develop. When was the last time you saw piazza, molina, posada, mauer, play 3rd….none that i recall. No team moves their starting catcher to another position in the prime of their careers unless its due to an injury. so i say let him develop and see what happens. what if d’arnaud flames out or gets injured, then what do you have. if they both are tearing up their respective leagues in the next few years then send them packing for pieces the big club needs…ala lee. (imo that trade is looking like one of the best trades ever made by the phillies…..or any team in the last 10 years). I understand that we need more infield depth in the minors but i am willing to let that work it self out we still have hewitt. From what i saw i think he got moved to the outfield. didn’t he? I say bring back travis chapman and welinson baez.

  31. If valle hits .290 w/15-20 hr’s in clearwater next year, does anyone think we could get an alvarez, wallace, Gamel or vitters for him? Gamel is an avg fielder @ best but would be a beast @ CBP. and the Brewers have T. Green right behind him.

  32. OH! these ar some of the top third prospects in case people don’t follow other teams prospects

  33. Greater chance of hell freezing over than any of those teams trading for Valle at that price. You are talking top prospects, very close to the big leagues for a then, I believe, 20 yr old catcher in A ball, who will probably still be very raw defensively. There is no ceratainty with Valle that he will have a true position, so any team would be reluctant to give up much for him and the Phillies would never give up on him that early.

  34. Keith Moreland played 11 games at 3B for though much more after he was traded to the Cubs. It is not a completely unnatural career progression.

  35. Lave Cross was the player. Keith Moreland did it because he couldn’t stick behind the plate.

  36. If I remember correctly the cubs had a young jody davis there that was gonna be a problem for moreland. Man was that late 70’s early 80’s phillies farm system stacked or what!!!!!

  37. bill Says:

    phillies guarentied jack taschner free agency and removed him from the 40 man

    That sounds like a nice story. Taschner has to be up there with the worse players brought in ever.

  38. Valle put another charge into the ball tonight. This time a hanging breaking pitch that broke right over the middle of the plate for a three run homer high over the left field fence in his home town of Los Moschis. Taylor on the other hand struck out on a check swing at an outside slider in the dirt for the opponent Obregon. He had singled to right and put down a sac. bunt earlier but still is not squaring up the ball the way I had seen him do this summer.

  39. Tom: I think gamel is a nice fit in that the brewers have a young 3d baseman they love in Mchehee .301-16 hrs and a nice prospect in green while needing a future catcher to replace the aging kendall and his .241-2-43. Also you mention Valle’s age as a negative to another ballclub but they would see a guy in his age 19 year(not 20 till late july i think) who was hitting well against much older more experienced players. Valle is also not a bad defensive catcher just raw w/ some skills. I would tink that he would probaly start in lakewood though with D’arnaud getting the naud in clearwater. So if Valle had that kind of year as BTU suggested than you’d better get out the salt because hell just might freeze over.

  40. Less than 400 plate appearances from Casey McGehee is NOT going to prompt the Brewers to trade their best hitting prospect. And even if McGehee were to stick at third, the Brewers are likely to move Gamel to first base when Prince Fielder becomes too expensive. Besides, the Brewers also have Jonathan Lucroy and Angel Salome in the high minors of their system, both catchers and both good prospects in their own right.

  41. Taylor was out of the lineup for some ten days so it probably takes a few outings to gather any steam. On his blog he speaks about having problems adjusting to the new dietary offerings in mexico and had not felt very good his first week or so down there. His time missed was due to a slight elbow strain and the Phillies who have a trainer down in Mexico decided to take it slow with his return.

    He did record a double in the 8th last night to drive in the winning run.

    Last year while Taylor participated in Hawaii he suggested (Baseball America) that he wanted to work on things to prepare for the upcoming spring and that statistically it might be reflected negatively, but it was more important to him to work on things he believed would make for a better player on his part. It seems as though his plan then worked well for him this year and it might be the case that he is doing the same thing this winter in Mexico.

  42. Gamle for Valle is laughable. No chance of trading a well-known, great-hitting prospect for a guy who is an unknown at his position and may never hit big league pitching. I’m not sure they would trade Gamel for D’Arnaud. It would have to be D’Arnaud and someone like Bastardo.

  43. Gamel’s problem is he can’t play 3B defensively. That is the main reason the Brewers kept him in the minors. He is less of an athlete than Braun, so a move to the OF is not as easy for him. He is more of an AL DH-type for me and not someone I would trade for aggressively. I am perfectly happy with another year from Feliz though would probably consider other 2-3 year mid-priced options in free agency.

  44. My view of Michael Taylor, at this point is, let’s get him the hell up to the major leagues. I realize that he won’t be up on Opening Day next year because the team does not want to give up an extra year of eligibility. However, I expect him to be promoted by around late May or June. But I think that once Charlie and Milt work with me, they will realize instantly the still somewhat undeveloped power lurking in his body and swing.

  45. IMO the Phillies have done pretty well in not rushing
    catchers through the system. They recognize–correctly
    IMO–that the players have to learn the position and how to handle a pitching staff before moving on. Hitting is a bonus.
    I agree with Goldstein (in this case) that Valle should
    continue to catch until he clearly shows that he can’t
    handle it…and that will take some time. Hence there is no
    need to rush him.

  46. Anonymous: It’s not laughable if a teenage catcher hits .290 with 15-20 homers in high A ball. If the brewers sighn fielder there will be nowhere to play the butcher, i mean guy. I would take below avg D at one position to get back .280 with 30 to 35 homers.

  47. The laughable part of the deal isn’t Gamel playing third. It’s the Brewers trading him for an 18 year old catcher. Valle’s going to Lakewood next year and it would take one HELL of a breakout year to put him at that level of prospect. I love our prospects, but let’s please stop wishcasting here.

  48. I have to agree with Catch 22 Taylor needs to be with the big club. I luv Raul but he has slowed down in the field. If Taylor shows what we think he can, a trade to a DH team for Raul might be something to think about.

  49. Yeah. If BJ Rosenberg pitches the next 10 innings scoreless in the Mexican Pacific League, let’s trade him for the top AFL prospect. Why didn’t we all think of that? Get some of our lower level prospects on a hot streak and trade them for top prospects. Duh!

  50. Taking Vic out and leaving Raul in took on Luzinski-Martin potential when that ball went off of Raul’s glove. Ben would of been all over that one but alls well that end well
    Pedro then …Happ??? Ya gotta

  51. Ah a season is not a hot streak derby. I agree w/ alan that it’s highly unlikely valle w/ start in A+ but if he put up those #’s @ A+ @ that age he would bring back a gamel type player(great bat, bad D)

  52. If Matt Gamel will only be useful as an outfielder and does not project to be a good outfielder, given our current outfield and glut of mult-talented, high upside, outfield prospects, why the heck do we need him? This doesn’t make any sense to me even if the Brewers wanted to trade him for someone as green as Valle, and I doubt that they do.

  53. Catch, i guess the only way it would make sense is if they don’t have room for him and if we are willing to overlook his defense @ third. I don’t want him in the OF or anywhere else but 3d.

  54. I know this isn’t the exact right spot for this post, but I’m hoping to get an answer and thought the INT’L or Draft Recap link would be pointless to post:

    When judging a draft or more poignantly the money the PHILLIES spend on “new talent,” shouldn’t the INT’L SIGNINGS also be included when doing a final money wrap??

    James did a great job breaking down the difference between 2007, 08 and 2009 but I was wondering if the team spent more, less or the same on the international market with the seemingly THIN 2009 draft class.

    Obviously that would bolster the money used for new talent

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