I’m going to write more about Drabek when I do my Top 30, but thats not for a while, and I was thinking about what should happen with Drabek next year, so I wanted to throw this out there. Everyone knows at this point that an elite starter is worth more than an elite reliever when you’re talking about value. And I think its pretty much a given that Drabek’s long term future is as a starting pitcher. But for 2010, I think it makes a world of sense to use Drabek in the ML pen from Day 1. Check below for my reasoning…
Earl Weaver (even though he was really kind of before my time) made a habit of breaking in young pitchers in relief, and then integrating them into the rotation when they were ready. It seems lots of teams shy away from that approach now, for whatever reason, but I think its an approach that might provide dividends for the Phillies. I have a few reasons for why I think this makes sense;
1. The Phillies currently have 5 starting pitchers under control next season; Hamels, Lee, Happ, Moyer and Blanton. Blanton will be a FA after the 2010 season, as will Moyer and Lee. While the Phillies could talk extension with Lee, there will be at least one opening, as its extremely unlikely Moyer will be here after 2010. But for 2009, the rotation appears congested as far as Drabek breaking in. He could start in AAA and if an injury occurs, be the first callup. But…
2. The Phillies more pressing need, at this point, is someone to help solidify the bullpen, and do so cheaply. The Phillies have a lot of money tied up in Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and JC Romero next season, and with an already extended budget set to be stretched even more with arbitration raises, its going to be important to add a few complimentary pieces for as little money as possible. Drabek will make the ML minimum.
3. As he displayed at the Futures Game, and in many games at two levels this year, Drabek has the stuff to get batters out right now. A 93-96 fastball with late life and a hammer curveball is all you really need at the Major League level to go through a lineup one time. He still needs to work on his changeup, but a few guys on the big league staff throw pretty damn good changeups, so you know he’d have plenty of guys to help him. It might also help that he could familiarize himself with Rich Dubee and have a year to work under him before expecting him to move to the rotation.
4. Making transitions mid-season is always tough, a guy is used to starting his whole career, then he becomes a reliever in June, and its a tough transition. But if you start preparing him now, tell him what is expected of him, and give him time to prepare, the transition will be much smoother. Also, after 2010, he’ll have an entire offseason to prepare for a move back into the rotation, and all of spring training to get stretched out.
5. He threw 158 innings this season, at age 21, after throwing 32 in 2008, 54 in 2007, and 23 in 2006. The huge increase, following a major arm surgery, is always a worry. By using him in relief, the Phillies can greatly monitor his workload and watch him up close every day in Philadelphia. In the role I see for him, he’d pitch 1 inning, sometimes 2 innings, coming in in the 6th inning of games when needed, or the 7th, and he’d end up throwing between 65-80 innings in relief.
6. After the Halladay madness, Drabek went from a guy that we (the people who pay close attention to prospects) were really curious to see, to a guy that just about every Phillies fan now knows about. The pressure on him to perform is going to be elevated, and he’s never thrown a big league pitch. Using him in the bullpen, in moderate leverage situations, gives him a chance to adapt to the big leagues, work on his changeup, and get acclimated to the major leagues before he’s being counted on to hold down a spot in the rotation.
7. Don’t waste your bullets. Every pitcher in baseball is a big injury risk. Some guys have a 14-15 year career and never spend a day on the DL, but they are massive outliers. Drabek already has one major arm surgery in the books. He’s cleaned up his mechanics, but he’s a hard thrower, and he’ll always be at risk of another injury, as most pitchers are. He’s not a raw, unproven kid, and while he could maybe benefit from a half season at AAA, if the Phillies don’t end up needing a replacement starting pitcher for a prolonged period of time, then he’ll have basically spent the entire year in AAA, while he could have been helping the big league club from Day 1.
Long term, Drabek is still a starter for me, and closer to the front of the rotation than the back. But for 2010, looking at everything with the current team and his progress, I think using him in relief at the big league level could provide great returns for the Phillies. Do you agree or disagree?
Phuture Phillies 
Completely agree. I think this is a very good idea. And I think he could still spot start for the Phillies when needed too. But mainly be a bullpen guy in 2010.
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I think you actually missed a pretty important one: getting him acclimated to big league hitting. The mental aspect is something that trips up many rookies who have the physical stuff to play in the bigs like Kyle. In relatively low stress situations coming out of the pen, he can develop the approach and confidence he needs to succeed as a starter.
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I guess that was kinda covered in 6
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Judging by recent history, he’ll probably go to AAA and stay there for a while to prove himself. Carrasco and others did not get the benefit of the doubt, they had to prove themselves at the next level. As for the majors, there would need to be a ton of injuries and/or Moyer retiring for him to get a legit shot in ’10. Also I just don’t see them keeping him as a reliever unless they intend for him to close. He is not the type that would sit well with being the 7th inning guy, let’s face it.
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just like happ this year you never know whats going to happen with the rotation. i would start him in the pen for the above reasons but tell him he would be an option if a couple of starters go down during the year
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PP – how do Joba Chamberlin’s recent struggles factor into your thought process? I can’t think of another highly touted pitcher who has done something similar recently, although the talk is Neftali Perez for the Rangers will be moving into the rotation next year, so I’d keep an eye on him.
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The struggles of Chamberlain and David Price do give me pause… but James makes a very compelling argument nonetheless.
What exactly are the names of cheap bullpen alternatives next year? Mathieson, Bastardo, Escalona….and who else?
Maybe Rosenberg or Schwimmer?
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I also wanted to put Joba out there. He has not done well as a starter. Even when he’s pitching half decently, he only goes 5 to 6 innings. I think relieving messed him up and there’s a lot of worry in NY about it. I’d hate to waste a great arm like Drabek’s because he can’t turn it back on when they need him to start. I guess I’d throw Madsen as another example.
The arguments you made are all good and valid. I just don’t want to delay his chance to be the 5th starter. I voted for him to be in AAA until a starter is needed. It could be earlier than we think. Moyer may not be able to go every 5th day and could become end up in a role like he’s currently in: spot starter, long relief.
It’s a great discussion item.
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You make good points, but I bet the Phillies look to journeymen or other rookies like Escalona for cheap bullpen help — they seem to have had good luck finding lukewarm bodies lately. Plus, moving him so quickly to the majors seems kind of…well…quick. In a perfect world if they could extend Lee and Blaton (big ifs, I know) Drabek’s rookie salary would be welcome for the same reason you gave in point #2.
If he pitches lights-out in spring training, however, all bets are off.
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As for Joba, I thought his weight and lack of composure were contributing factors. Conditioning doesn’t seem to be an issue for Drabek, and he seems to have mellowed out a bit.
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I don’t really think the Yankees handled Joba well. He even admitted a few weeks ago that until very recently, he had no idea what the plan was for him.
The main thing you’re trying to accomplish is twofold. You want to protect Drabek’s arm while he’s still in the elevated injury zone, which for most pitchers is the 18-22/24 range. You do that by structuring his role for an entire season and leaving him there. My plan to get him 65-80 IP is just that. He shouldn’t be starting in 2010. If they need a starter, they have some depth at AAA in Carpenter and Kendrick. Those guys are fine as fill-ins. I wouldn’t want Drabek to get yoyo’ed, and I think it would be important that the front office sits down with him and says “look, you’re gonna be a reliever this year, we want to manage your innings, don’t try and do too much, you’re not a rotation option this season, but you are going into the rotation next year”. This lets him know exactly where he is, what the plan is, and allows him to settle in.
I don’t really think the Rays handled Price all that well by demoting him this year. I think most people agree that it was a cost saving move more than a developmental move, no matter Tampa Bay says. Chamberlain pitched much differently as a reliever. He was ramping it up to 97-98 as a reliever, then dialing it back to 91-94 as a starter. I’m not suggesting Drabek should alter his approach and air it out hoping to hit 97-98 in short stints. I’m advocating using him in a relief role in 2010 to manage his workload and get him acclimated to the big leagues.
I think him providing the bullpen with 75 innings of plus performance will be of more value than him maybe making 5-7 starts next year as a 5th starter.
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I seem to be in the minority saying that he should be in the Phillies rotation from Day 1. But to me it seems pretty obvious. I guess I’ll post responses to yours point by point:
1. Moyer is not a major league starter anymore. And if he is, your team is probably not contender. It would be equivalent to the Marlins giving Emilio Bonifacio 500+ PAs (wait, they did? No wonder they’re not making the playoffs). Trade him to a team that needs “veteran leadership” or something. Maybe he’ll retire. Who knows? But letting him pitch another full season in the rotation is just a bad idea.
2. Bullpen arms are fungible. This group was the best in baseball last year, now they’re mediocre. There’s no reason to believe that next year will be different again, and there’s no reason to exile an amazing arm to the pen to pitch the 6th and 7th innings.
3. Other than the last sentence, this seems to support him being in the majors in any capacity. And a starter is more valuable than a reliever.
4-5. You’re concerned about him going from 32 to 158 innings in one year. However, if you make him a reliever, and he goes back down to that 65-80, the following year he’s going to have another big jump, and we’ll have the same worry. There’s no reason to delay that kind of jump when it will eventually need to happen. They’ll monitor him and have somebody ready to step in at the first sign of trouble.
6. There’s absolutely no reason to believe that with his make up, he won’t be able to handle the Philly pressure.
7. I agree here, but I think the best way not to waste bullets is to be firing them from a ML mound from the start.
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You make good arguements, but I think there’s a reason that clubs don’t do that anymore. Mostly, I think it’s the best way to learn to pitch is to pitch, and he’ll pitch more as a minor league starter than as a major league reliever. He will be more ready for the bigs in 2011 or 2012 if he starts in AAA.
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What about some sort of scenario where he pitches in the AAA rotation until July, then comes up to help out in the bullpen?
I think the club has plenty of other young options they can plug in for the bullpen. Bastardo, Mathieson, Schwimer or Rosenberg at some point, Chapman seems to be getting close, etc.
I agree with the poster that limiting his workload to only 60-80 innings would make it tough for him to get used to starting again the year after. This is why some kind of hybrid scenario might make sense, depending on his success in AAA.
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I’ve always been a fan of Earl Weaver and his use of young pitchers is one reason why. I almost always am in favor of using a young guy in the bullpen in his first year. Weaver was ahead of his time and some of his ideas have gone out of style but some of them need to be revived in my view.
I actually think starting Happ out in the bullpen was good for him this season for many reasons.
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I actually voted for the most conservative strategy: keep him in AA to start. He still needs to mature and learn to get lefties out. Obviously a promotion to AAA should happen after about 5 to 10 starts depending on the AAA rotation.
Because the Phillies are a playoff caliber team I think Drabek needs to get innings and success at AAA then a Sept (or earlier if a full time rotation spot opens) callup for a few starts.
I think Bastardo should actually have the role you are describing for Drabek. He is slightly more advanced and probably remains as a reliever but could be a spot starter. He should benefit from Moyer/Hamels/Lee.
I agree with the relief pitchers needing to be cheap:
Lidge, Madson, Romero are the only locks.
I think Condrey will be cheap in arbitration (<$1M). Eyre, Escalona or Bastardo could be the other lefty. Mathieson seems destined to have a spot, possibly in high leverage.
Depending on Bastardo's role I could see either Kendrick or Carpenter as the long relief bullpen guy (like Happ this year). Either that or have some ML vet on a minor league deal compete for that last spot.
So here's my 2010 Opening Day Bullpen:
Lidge(ugh), Madson, Romero, Mathieson, Condrey, Eyre, Bastardo.
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I did not vote, since my choice was not listed.
I thought the analysis was good and would be a sound plan if the premise were a given–that there would be no opportunity to start.
But the likelihood is that 2-3 starters will have health or performance problems over the course of first 4 months and and that a consistently performing replacement will have an opportunity to stick in the rotation.
I also think that limiting his innings will not be a priority for the Phils in 2010. On the contrary, they will want him to continue to put the TJ further behind him and continue to develop the stamina needed to be a good starter for a couple years and then, hopefully, an elite starter.
I also think the Phils are thinking this way and that this is precisely what will happen. But again, I think what you laid out is a resonable approach. I just think other factors predominate and he will be developed as a starter.
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I don’t think working out of the bullpen is necessarily easier on the arm even if he only works 70 or so innings because of the need to warm up more frequently and pitch on successive days. I remember John Smoltz saying it was just as stressful as starting.
I prefer the starting at AAA and moving to Philly as circumstances dictate scenario. It could be as a starter or reliever at that point depending on need. A 100 to 160 innings pitched season (with success) would be ideal in my opinion.
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I don’t want him to yoyo back and forth. I love the argument you detailed, but only if the Phils handle it right. I’ve always been a proponent of keeping players in the loop, but for whatever reason (hubris and all that), management tends to leave players in the dark about their plans. If they approach Kyle from day 1 and let him know he’ll be in the pen this year and a rotation spot will be his the following year, I’d be thrilled about it. I just don’t want him racking up frequent fliers between Philly and Allentown.
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I understand your perspective, but disagree. The major leave bullpen is no place to learn how to throw a change up. That should be done in the minors where winning is secondary to development. Fact is, if he is to be a starter, he needs more seasoning. Look at Ryan Madson. Had two good pitches in the minors prior to hitting the show. He never was able to develop his curve ball, thus relegating him to the bullpen. I want more from Drabek and to develop properly, he needs to throw innings in the minors.
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Using a prospect as a reliever makes sense when he has a long relief role and is allowed to throw 120-130 innings in that role. Limiting that pitcher to 60-80 innings leaves the pitcher untrained and unconditioned to pitch in the rotation, IMO.
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1. See how he does in spring training – this may change the outlook.
2. On the assumption that nothing unusual, one way or the other, shows up, and that there are no sudden holes in the Phillies rotation, start him in AAA as a starter, but limit his pitches somewhat.
3. Re-evaluate about June 15 – it’s silly to make concrete plans when we can be relatively sure that something is going to upset the applecart.
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my vote is that he starts out in AAA and moves to the majors by july.
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If I remember correctly, Ryan Madson was a successful minor league starter, came up as a reliever for the short-term, failed as a starter when he finally got the chance, and never made it back into the rotation.
I’m not opposed to PP’s idea of having Drabek in the bullpen in 2010, but I think doing so precludes him from starting at all next year. If he starts at AAA and does well, then he’ll get an opportunity to help the big league club at some point. So the plan for Drabek’s a big off-season choice for the organization.
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Phuture: very thought provoking post here, and well articulated. I agree with a number of your positions, but I also share the concern that other posters have mentioned: what about 2011 when the team might ask him to go from 60-70 innings to 180-200? That work load increase would be very concerning to me.
My other question for you is this: is this what you think the Phillies ought to do, or actually will do? Regardless of what they ought to do, I suspect they will not bring him into the bullpen fold next season. Aside from Happ, who I think is a very different case, I’m just not seeing a Phil’s precedent for this. The Phils, by all accounts, love Drabek and see him as a top flight starter; their goal seems to be to keep him well on track for an arrival mid-season next year (a cheaper option if they plan it correctly, btw) or at the start of 2011. The other thing I’d mention, from an organizational standpoint, is that if the Phils decide to go 100% win-now, an emerging top of the rotation starter in AAA is probably worth a bit more than a middle reliever in a trade.
Actually, one more point: I’m not sure the Phils are really short or in desperate need in the pen. They’ve got under contract or arb eligible: Lidge, Madson, Romero, Escalona, maybe Eyre, Bastardo, Walker, Durbin, Condrey, Mathieson, Carpenter (think Happ approach), and Kendrick. Oh, Trashner too. That’s 12 guys, good back-end options, righties, lefties, longmen, and swingmen, all with at least a modicum of pro level experience.
Sorry, one more thing: if the Phils do decide that Moyer is cooked in the rotation, they may go out and sign a high-risk high-reward, 1-year guy with the thought that Drabek will be ready mid season if the experiment fails. Think Myers, Pavano, Martinez, or Harden. Some of those guys may be long shots, but if they take this approach, that’s one more body in the pen (Moyer) blocking Drabek’s arrival.
My point: while I’d love to see Drabek with the big club cutting his teeth next season, I just don’t see the Phillies doing it.
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Regardless of Eyre’s decision to retire or not, he’s a free agent after the season.
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I know people who think Drabek is best suited to be a closer. They feel his size and effort(regardless of smoother mechanics) make him less liky to remain healthy and consistant with a starters workload.
I like the idea of a controlled workload in the ml pen. But I also think that Michael Taylor should be in Philly next year even if he is not the starter so my opinion is swayed in that direction for all players. I think first year players need to be broken slowly instead of being named starter or nothing. We look at Jamie Moyers value including the advice he passes along as being just as valuable as how he performs. I think Taylor can benefit just as much from being around Ibanez as he could from the extra at bats in AAA.
In the long run, with Drabeks reputation, if he can’t handle bullpen in his first year he won’t do well in any role given to him.
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I want him to be a starter in AAA next year. He needs the innings under his belt to build on his limited experience, refine his command and improve his change-up. If he relieves in the majors on a championship caliber team, he will avoid throwing his change-up. That does not help his future as a starter.
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i know the Joba and Price situations scare people off and perhaps rightfully so..but im all for this idea and think they should approach it similar to how the rangers approached nefi feliz…hes pitched to about a .6 whip i believe helping his teams BP while acclamtaing himself to the big league “rubber”…also how valuable has phil hughes been for the yanks staff id say outside of mo and cc hes almost been the most valuable to them after those 2…im interested to see how Feliz responds next year after basically doing what PP has outlined for KD
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Drabek should pitch in Triple-A for the entire season. He’s not going to learn to be an effective starter by relieving in the majors. He’ll want to and be coached to throw his best stuff at all times. It won’t be a learning experience. Drabek being less than “lights out” as a starter in Reading showed that he is not yet develped.
There is also a conditioning issue. We’re worried about his innings workload next season. The same will apply the season after, and the innings jump will be greater if he is reduced to a relief role. He should remain in a starter’s role and gradually increase his endurance there. In relief, his routine will be changed entirely. Do not overlook how often he pitches adding increase stress to his reconstructed elbow.
Drabek had a great season as a starter in ’09. He should build on that season in ’10. Continue his growth as a starter.
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They might want to get him out there now…
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I don’t see things that way. I think Drabek needs to pitch and improve his control. I would love to see Drabek start for AAA and throw about 100 innings and then move to the major league bullpen for the remainder of the season. I agree that there’s a great benefit from him getting big league experience next year but half a year would seem perfect to me.
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I like how the rangers handles Neftali. They started him in the AAA rotation, moved him up to the big league bullpen, and are going to start him in the ML rotation next year. That is pretty much what I want the phillies to do with drabek. let him imorove his change up in AAA.
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Drabek needs innings. The Phils don’t really need a deep bullpen in April. Besides, I can’t see the Phils giving Drabek a full year’s service time at age 22 when he hasn’t pitched in AAA yet and only has 1/2 year above the A-ball.
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from my small viewings of drabek and the media descriptions, he seems to parallel hughes. ( yankees). if hes that good we have a gem, but i dont quite see it. i,d still like to see him start as a reliever, and of course the pen is in shambles so he is needed.
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The major league bullpen is not is such a shape that we need to throw our best pitching prospect in there before he’s ready or else we fail. To make a 2010 bullpen decision based on injuries down the ’09 stretch would be silly. And, it would be far too risky to such a prospect like Drabek. He’s not ready for the big time. We couldn’t count on him to be the solution, even if we needed one.
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I think the reasoning is really sound, and if the organization committed to leaving Drabek in the pen the whole year, and not jerking him around a la Joba, then it could wind up being a good thing.
That being said, I voted for “Repeat AA.” My reasons are twofold. First, I agree with the posters above who say that if Drabek is ultimately going to be a starter, we need to worry about the number of innings he can pitch in 2011, and that’s dependent on the number of innings he pitches in 2010. Second, I’d prefer to have as many cost-controlled years of Drabek as a starter as possible; in that sense, using him for a full year out of the pen would be getting less bang for your buck from Drabek’s pre-arbitration years.
Additionally, I voted for him to head back to Reading instead of Lehigh Valley because I’d like to see him really dominate at Reading before promoting him. It might only be a matter of a month before he merits promotion, but I think it’s important for Drabek to take it a step at a time at this point, especially since he has very few pro innings under his belt.
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My option also wasn’t available in the poll, start him in AAA and move him up around mid-season if his performance warrants.
My issue with putting him in the ML bullpen are two-fold. First, Charlie’s history is that he doesn’t trust young pitchers, meaning Drabek will likely only get spotty action, maybe throwing a couple innings in a game and then sitting for 5-6. Tough for a young pitcher to develop under that scenerio.
Second, pitching out of the bullpen he will not be encouraged to develop that 3rd pitch. It doesn’t help him long-term to become a fastball/curve-ball guy only. A good parallel is Madson, who has a dominating fastball/change-up combination but never developed a decent breaking ball to be successful as a starter.
Let Drabek continue to develop in the minors. It is rare for any team to have all 5 starters make 30 starts in a season so it is likely that Drabek will get an opportunity to make his major league debut as a starter in 2010.
They have other cheap options for the pen in 2010, including Mathieson, Escalona, Zagurski, and Bastardo.
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IF we are concerned about his innings increasing and we put him in the MLB pen for ’10, doesn’t it raise the same question for ’11? He would most likely regress his innings in ’10if you put him in the pen. COunt me out, top of the rotation in AAA.
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I agree with what you are saying. The Phils will need the like of Drabek, Escalona, Zagurski, Mathieson, etc. to step in and take over in ’10.
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My only concern with Drabek in the pen next year is that he won’t get enough innings. If the Phillies see him as a starter in the future, throwing 70 innings next year isn’t going to build his endurance or his arm strength. At some point you have to stop babying his arm and turn him loose. Cap his innings at 160-175, but don’t back him down from last year.
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Lump –
How can you lump Drabek in that group? He’s an ace in the making. Escalona, Zagurski, and Mathieson are relief specialists. And, heck, they might each be more ready for major league innings than Drabek.
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What I think the Phillies will do: Full year in AAA. Outside shot that he starts in AA.
Long-Term I think Drabek is best suited to be a closer. He has the mentality for it, and certainly the stuff is there. I’m no expert, but I’ve heard others say that his frame is better suited to relieving than closing.
Yes, Kyle needs to work on his change-up. Some people have the make-up to add and refine pitches at the major league level, others do not. Drabek, being young, would probably be best served doing that in the minors this year.
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The problem is the Phillies have a poor record of handling pitchers. Happ had to fight to be a starter and he is clearly the best pitcher on the staff AT THIS MOMENT. What I dont understand is the relationship between Charlie and Dubee.
Where is Dubee when Charlie does those insane thing with pitching? I still like using the 25 spot to rotate young relievers as long as they are told it is a seasoning opp.
Where does Moyer fit in???
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I believe Ruben needs to take a strong role in setting the roster. Charlie is a one trick pony and will stick with players
on matter what.
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I’d prefer Drabek starting in AAA with a possible mid-season call-up for a few reasons.
1) It is hard to develop pitches in the pen. A starter needs 3 or 4 pitches to be effective while a guy in the pen only needs 2, sometimes just 1. Sometimes it takes a couple innings for a pitcher to get a good feel on a secondary pitch. Coming out of the pen, there is no such luxury.
2) The arbitration clock starts a year earlier, but more importantly, the clock toward free agency starts earlier. Do you want a season of Drabek as a reliever at age 22 or a season of Drabek as a starter in his prime in his late 20s? If you cut short his pre-FA years, that’s the choice.
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You make some good points for starting him in the ‘pen,
but my guess would be that the Phillies will start him in
the AAA rotation, as long as he is healthy and has a
decent spring.
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