Just a few odds and ends
* Anthony Hewitt is 8 for his last 15, with two triples and a HR. The BB/K numbers are still ugly, but I’ll take it for now.
* Domingo Santana has 7 XBH (4 2B, 3 HR) in 28 AB. That’s quite a way to kick off your US debut
* With all of the talk about Roy Halladay, I’ve started to kind of figure out what I think it will take to get a deal done. And I think about how its going to take a big chunk out of the Phillies farm system. But then I look at the first 20 or so guys on the prospect list, and realize that even if the team trades 4 or 5 guys, there are still going to be a bunch of guys that will merit watching. And that doesn’t count two power arms who still haven’t thrown a ball in Cosart and Shreve. I’ll continue this below…
Some of the trade proposals and comments I’ve seen have been kind of embarrassing, and remind me of something you’d see on a Mets message board, where they propose giving up a bunch of junk/fringe guys for one of the best pitchers in baseball. And that’s what the team would be getting in Halladay. In my mind, its going to take Drabek. The comments about him being “untouchable” are more than likely nothing more than posturing by the front office, which is the right thing to do. But he’s going to have to be at the front end of the deal. I think its also going to take one of Taylor or Brown, and then 3 more guys with prospect status/value. For these names, think Marson, Donald, Savery, Worley, and Carrasco. Toronto doesn’t have to deal him now, but contrary to what some are saying, if they do wait until this winter and Halladay doesn’t want to sign an extension right away, it limits the teams they can trade him to, and also limits what they will get in return. I doubt that a team would give up a Drabek type prospect for only 1 year of Halladay, they’d try to give up scrap like the Mets did for Johan Santana.
This of course means we fans here will have a tough pill to swallow. Do you lose 5 coveted prospects for the best pitcher in baseball, a guy who gives the team a legit shot at repeating as World Series champions? When I look at how deep the farm system is, its a definite yes. But I’m curious as to the sentiment, so here’s a poll. “This trade”, that the poll is asking about would be
Drabek + one of Taylor/Brown + Marson + Donald + Savery for Halladay
Phuture Phillies 
I think you have to make that trade. Halladay is too good to pass up. While Drabek will most likely be a solid ML starter, its probably 1 in 50 he will turn out as dominating as Halladay. The system is very deep right now, and the way Knapp is pitching in Lakewood makes you feel a little bit better if you do lose Drabek.
What is the story on Santana? Anybody know his background? Those are really impressive numbers for a kid who hasn’t turned 17 yet.
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PP the way I see it they will want two of the four most intriguing arms (Knapp, Drabek, Carrasco, Happ), plus other top guys
In my mind a realistic trade that I would do is Happ, Drabek, Taylor, Donald and possibly a high ceiling lowball guy (Collier/May/J Rodriguez/Pettibone)
That way they get the two close to ML ready (one is ML ready) pitchers, plus the bat, plus the SS to fill that org need
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that was the info on him when he signed.
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I would also grudgingly probably go as far as Drabek, Carrasco, Taylor/Brown, Donald, lowball guy
The one thing that would turn me off from the trade is the BJs asking for 3 of the quartet of arms (Knapp, Drabek, Happ, CC). That’s just a bit too much IMO
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It’s close, but I voted no.
You’re talking about five guys who will play in the majors, two of whom project as stars. Not only are at least 2-3 of the five likely to be contributors within the period when our core players remain under contract and in their primes; they’re all cheap. That’s hugely important, for obvious reasons: we aren’t the Yankees/Mets/Red Sox, and unless economic and demographic forces far beyond the control of baseball executives reverse themselves, we never will be.
Further, I think it was David Murphy’s blog post yesterday that included the point that after the 2010 season, a handful of top pitchers (including Halladay) will be free agents. So you might have two shots to get one of them between now and then: through trade–with the price going down as additional names become available–or for nothing more than money and draft picks after the 2010 season.
So, much as I want Halladay starting twice for the Phils in a seven-game playoff series, at that price, I blink. Slightly less (no Marson, Bastardo or Worley instead of Savery), and I probably take the plunge.
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That was tough, but a Yes. Thanks for putting your thoughts down and letting us continue to discuss this deal.
My only quibble is that a lot of the stuff I have read insinuates that the Jays want a cost-controlled major leaguer in the deal too.
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To me, in making that deal, you overpay for the guy’s history. At 32, there’s no guarantee that he will continue to pitch the way he has. Reminds me of how the Braves and Cardinals, overpaid for Hudson and Mulder based on what they have done in the past. I wouldn’t do it. I’d be ok with giving up a package of Happ + one of Taylor/Brown + Marson + Donald + Savery. Not Drabek, though. He’s our insurance policy in case something goes wrong next year with Halladay.
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NO, NO AND NO..a thousand times NO ON THAT TRADE..I enjoy watching kids grow with the org i.e. utley, rollins and Howard and I enjoy watching every day players more than a pitcher..I will grudingly give up Brown BUT NOT TAYLOR. He is a RIGHT HANDED BAT that is needed to surround all the Left handed bats in your lineup. I will not give up both Drabek and Happ. Surround the deal with those parameters and see what happens
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That trade would be too much for me. Pull Marson or Donald out & I’d feel better about it.
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I’m not saying this is a slam dunk.
But what if Drabek gets hurt again? What if Brown has lingering issues with his wrist that sap his power for the next 2 years?
The Phillies are going to have major problems signing free agent pitchers in the top bracket for 2 big reasons;
a.) In an open bidding situation, the Yankees will just outbid everyone. Even with their little league park that makes CBP look like Safeco, they can still just bludgeon guys with money.
b.) As previously mentioned, our park is a big red flag to most pitchers. But if you bring a guy in, let him pitch there and have him feel the support of the fans + the defense behind him, I think it makes it easier to sign them long term.
I love Drabek, I’ve been calling him our best prospect. But if absolutely everything works out, you hope Drabek is able to produce a few seasons comparable to what Halladay has done over the last 5 years. That’s if everything goes right. Taylor sure looks like a stud, as does Brown. But there is no spot for either guy right now. You’re not trading Jayson Werth to make room for Taylor, and I don’t think there’s any chance the Phillies trade Victorino because of the PR hit, even if hes inferior to Werth as an all around player.
So where does Taylor fit in here before 2011? At that point, will our window be shutting?
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FWIW (I guess, one non-connected but smart guy’s opinion), Keith Law is not sure the BJs would accept a Drabek, Carrasco, Brown, Donald deal
Despite his excellent progress this year, Drabek is not without some red flags, which possibly will always keep him from being a truly elite (top 5 minors) prospect
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Thank you for establishing a reasonable proposal…I’d probably do it. Giving up Taylor/Brown hurts a lot. Drabek is by no means a sure thing and Savery’s ceiling is probably a #5 or middle reliever. Marson and Donald will probably still be solid major leaguers, but it’s probably fair to say that we perhaps overvalued them a little coming into the season.
In return you’re getting a durable #1 starter who immediately makes you a legit WS contender for the next 2 years. And you’re getting it for below market value. After that, you’re getting either two good draft picks or more Halladay if the circumstances are right. We keep either Brown/Taylor and still have CC. Plus will still have a nice batch of younger talent to re-stock after 2010/2011.
We could literally go a generation before being in this position again. We have to take advantage now while we can.
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it’s nice to hear the owner of a future phillies site is comfortable with losing 5 prospects.
But I’m not sure I could deal. I voted no simply because I’ve been spoiled over the years watching a contending team. 3 years from now when the party ends I won’t know what to do with myself in the summer.
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Wrong or not, I vote no from an emotional viewpoint. I would be willing to give up Carrasco and Brown with the best of the rest, keeping Taylor and Drabek. May not get it done, but I would rather roll the dice or go for a Harang or something like that.
If Phils sell the farm and we win it all or go far in post-season, that’s a good result. But I will feel sick for 10-12 years watching Taylor, Brown and Drabek wipe the floor with us in regular season and All-Star games. Not ready for that.
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The whole idea of “mortgaging the future” vs planning for the long term….obviously guys like Brown and Drabek project to be building blocks at some point, but there is so much uncertaintly heading into 2012 anyway (all the kep lineup guys, Cole, Lidge and Madson all up by then), that is there really an assurance that this next “wave” we’d be parting with in a Halladay trade will be able to patch up pieces and make the team remain contenders?
I think that’s a big assumption/a ton of uncertainty really….I’d much rather deal with the very high probability that the current core, as assembled, looks like it is a Halladay away from being a very strong WS contender once again
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Beerleaguer suggested the Blue Jays really want Happ and, after thinking about it, I agree. Happ is the perfect pitcher for Toronto: They’d control his rights for years, plus he’s already in the MLB and a solid lefty. There’s no guarantee with Drabek, which is why I’m a little confused why Toronto would want him. Same goes for Taylor/Brown: Toronto is stuck with Wells, plus they have Lind and Rios. Why an OF prospect? Donald and Marson I understand, because they’ll need a SS and catcher next year and they are ready.
Happ+Donald+Marson+Bastardo+Kendrick for Halladay. Toronto would get two young, cheap starters and two young, cheap position players, and a power bullpen lefty. That would be excellent value for one player who makes only 35 appearances a year. I don’t see why either team would want to include the other big-name prospects.
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Flags fly forever.
And the Phillies are not a small market team. Its not like they’ll take payroll from $135M down to $60M in 2 years. The Phillies will always be able to attract free agent hitters because of the park. I think the days of 73 win Phillies teams is in the distant past, even if we trade 5 of our best prospects.
Anything can happen. But we lose a lot of money off the books after this season (Myers, Jenkins, Eaton, Thome’s money (finally), and then guys like Stairs. There will be arbitration raises. But they can afford to re-sign Halladay. And a rotation of Hamels + Halladay + whatever will always keep the team competitive.
I think the big thing is that the team drafts wisely over the next 2-3 years. In 5 years the core guys (Utley, Rollins, Howard, Werth, Ibanez and Victorino) will all be past their peak/retired/on other teams, and that’s when you need to have replacements ready. But the team has time there. In 3 years, Collier and Gose might be the equivalent of Taylor and Brown today.
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Paul, there’s no quality there. There isn’t a top 50 prospect in that entire bunch
Plus your logic is pretty faulty…..they are presumably looking to rid themselves of those bad contracts (and may be open to just buying out Wells), not preclude themselves from adding new talent because of the sunk costs
Maybe they want Happ, but they’d also want Drabek and Taylor and Donald etc etc etc…at least IMO
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I voted no b/c I enjoy this site too much….i was bummed last July when we gave up Outman and Cardenas….losing 5 of our top 8 guys might push me over the top.
Actually, the goal of the Phillies needs to be to win a WS…not just remain competitive. If you have a chance to win the WS I think you need to go for it at all costs.
The Phils need to pull the trigger on a deal for Halladay and I’ll just find a way to pick up the pieces and get back on my feet.
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No way.
First the GM there is on the way out if he doesnt correct the budget.
What do the Mets have to trade and if thye did get him he would catch,disease or get a hangnail something.I cursed the Mets with Italian voodoo.
Paul Bako is our starting catcher lately
If the Yankees and Sox aren’t bidding ,I would worry.
In any case you can not put Happ in the deal.
Despite the idea that a fly cant pitch in CBP,(an idea based on the error that a low ball pitcher will not make bad pitches that are easy to elevate)
Happ has proven he can pitch here like he did in Reading.
(2hrs)
Then there is the $$$$$$$$$$.
Get a bench then we can talk. Look for the Halladay price to
go down after the All Star Game.
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They won’t take that deal. Bastardo and kendrick is not going to get it done. My deal is donald, Brown or Taylor[that hurts love taylor] Drabek or carrasco, Worley and galvis or any other expect knapp lower prospect.
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That’s not gonna cut it, Paul.
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I still don’t understand how the Twins basically GAVE Santana to the Mets. Gomez is an okay outfielder, but Humber (6.16 AAA ERA this year) and Mulvey have done nothing. Guerra is doing alright this year but is still a long ways off.
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Meantime, I’m anxious to see if Santana is back in the starting lineup today.
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I hear you on all points, AB, and you’re probably right. It’s just that Toronto has immediate needs to address this off-season. I’m not sure Drabek will be ready until the middle of next season, and I’ll bet whoever he plays for next year won’t start him on the big league club out of spring training in order to keep his service clock from starting.
My (faulty?) logic is this: When you trade a true superstar player — in any sport — you’re almost always getting fewer cents back on the dollar in return. One way to maximize the return is to make sure the young, cheaper players you receive actually play in the majors.
Drabek/Taylor/Brown are big names that Toronto can wave in front of the fans and media, but none of them have even played in AAA, let alone the majors. The guys I mentioned can play next year, or are playing now, and are cheap. Toronto can take its remaining nucleus and insert these guys and compete again immediately.
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“Happ+Donald+Marson+Bastardo+Kendrick for Halladay.”
While I think we’d all pretty much explode with joy were this the trade, there’s zero chance Ricciardi accepts that package. You need to include at least one, probably two of the top five prospects (Drabek, Brown, Taylor, Knapp, Carrasco).
The least painful deal I can remotely imagine him taking–and he wouldn’t take it right now, but if it’s July 30th and nothing better is on the table, there’s some chance he’d jump–is Happ, Taylor, one of Donald/Marson, and one of Savery/Bastardo/Worley.
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what if drabek, brown, carrasco, donald become harden, dye, silva and c. counsel, all decent players but guys who can be more easily obtained than a carpenter. They could turn out to be be better, they could be worst. If he stays healthy, resigns and stays at this level we will be looking @ halladay the way we do carlton 25 yrs. from now
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Dajafi, I could live with Drabek, Brown, Donald and Savery/Worley.
I couldn’t accept the original deal proposed by PP. And I still think a rotation of Halladay/Hamels/Blanton/Moyer/Lopez-or-Martinez is iffy after Halladay and, gasp, Blanton. That’s why I’m reluctant to trade Happ right now and would reluctantly include Drabek.
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Toronto should NOT be making a trade with an eye on 2009, 2010 or even 2011.
That’s how GM’s get fired. That’s why the Pirates are working on their 17th consecutive losing season.
They should be targeting elite prospects, even if they are a year or two away. JA Happ is a nice 5th starter in the NL, but compare his ERA to his FIP.
When you play in a division with two teams that have near bottomless financial resources (Red Sox, Yankees), and two teams with good to great farm systems (Orioles, Rays), you damn well better be trying to collect as much young talent as you can. The Orioles have ridiculous arms coming through, plus a few franchise positions players to build around, and the Rays have an excellent collection of talent in the bigs, as well as a bunch of stud prospects in the minors.
If Toronto botches the Halladay deal and doesn’t deal Rios for a few quality guys, they’re going to become a doormat in the AL East, much like the Pirates have become in the NL Central.
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I said no to the deal. While it is tempting to get that top of the rotation starter for the playoff push, I just don’t see the long term benefit of pillaging a system that is just now coming into its own again with exciting talent. To those who think the Blue Jays would accept anything less than what PP has up top. Think again. That is pretty much what they will ask for. It’s too tough to swallow, especially since the Mets got Santana for 15 cents on the dollar. If the phillies are patient they can get a better deal some other time and place. I think there will be less expensive options on the market before and after the deadline.
Plus, there will be openings for Taylor, Brown, Drabek or whoever else plays themselves into the big leagues. The phillies are set up to win now and later.
What’s it been? Nearly 3 decades since we’ve seen this much concurrent talent in the system? With still more on the horizon? I’d rather keep building the system up and watch all levels of the minor leagues percolating with talent.
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There’s no way that I would include Drabek. If we hadn’t won last year, I might feel differently but at this point I just don’t think you can trade a possible 1 or 2 pitcher who costs next to nothing for someone you can only control for 1 1/2 years. There’s no way that the Phillies will pony up the money it will take for Halladay in free agency 6 years and 100 million comes to mind) so he’ll only be here this year and next. Having said that, I think Carrasco, Taylor or Brown, Marson, and Savery or Worley would be a very difficult package for Toronto to turn down and one that the Phils could afford because of their depth.
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Happ doesn’t seem to make sense for either side. As PP points out, he doesn’t have the upside Toronto would be looking for, and they have a bunch of young 4-5ish starters.
From the Phillies perspective it makes even less sense. Happ is the second best starter on the team right now. Replacing Lopez/Bastardo/whoever with Halladay makes the team almost a lock for the playoffs, close to a 5-6 win improvement. Replacing Happ with Halladay is maybe two wins, less if Happ keeps pitching like he is.
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Good points, PP. But I also think that GMs get fired for essentially telling fans and ownership that the team can’t hope to compete until 2012. I also think GMs get fired, or are at least forced to trade their expensive, best player, after making huge mistakes on BJ Ryan, Alex Rios and Vernon Wells.
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Could something like Taylor/Brown, Carrasco, Knapp, Donald & Savery/Worley/Carpenter get it done? It seems like the type of deal that could work for both sides.
Also, would Brett Myers have any value in these talks? I realize he’s a pending free agent but you figure the Jays (or another team) could offer him arbitration and then either get him for 1 yr or gets a pick if he leaves. Seems like there’s value in that.
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Interesting thoughts.
I know nobody wants to hear this again, but I do think there’s a way that Taylor gets into the outfield and that’s through a trade of Ryan Howard. I love the guy too, but the post-MVP Howard is a very good player, but he’s not Albert Pujols or even Chase Utley. This year, he’s not even Jayson Werth (although that can and probably will change if he gets hot for a month). When I think about the team’s future, this seems to be more and more of realistic possibility and I would target a team like Boston as a trade partner. They’ll need someone to replace Ortiz as soon as possible. The Phillies could seek Buchholz and perhaps other prospects. And don’t think for the minute that the Yankees won’t be interested. When they get their rear ends kicked by the Sox again, they’ll be looking for yet another high profile hitter. Howard will bring a ton of value in return and he will open the way for the prospect and other players to move through our system. If this move were to occur, the easy “fix” is to put Ibanez at first base. Honestly, if the OF was Taylor, Werth and Victorino and Ibanez was at first, we likely would not miss Howard’s bat very much, although we would very much miss the person.
All of this having been said, they will never suffer the PR blackeye associated with moving Howard and, in any event, Charlie would never allow the trade to happen.
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Selling the farm for an ace is tempting, but I’d be more comfortable with a deal like the one we made last year for Blanton–giving up a few prospects, but not our top guys. There’s a real advantage to having those guys for cheap for many years to come. So, someone like Meche or Washburn works fine for me. The only reason the Halladay trade should be considered at all is that we’d get him for 2010 too. I’d wait until the trade deadline approaches and see what the Blue Jays are really willing to accept, and if their demands really don’t go down (i.e. they’ll keep Halladay unless they get what they want), then we decide whether or not to pull the trigger on him or a lesser pitcher. I’m positive that if we trade for him today we’ll give up way more than if we wait 3 weeks.
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“If the Yankees and Sox aren’t bidding ,I would worry.”
Makes no sense.
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I wouldn’t put anything past Ricciardi(sp) For all we know they have Happ rated higher then Drabek. Ricciardi I believe is a big stats guy, so he probably loves J.A.
Here’s my theory(just something different at least even if it is strange),
The Blue Jay’s want Happ. They could be saying he is the only way we get Halladay. The Phillies feel that to replace that fifth spot they can have Pedro pitch some quality starts(if he was really throwing 88-91 and follows it up today, he very well could provide them some good starts). So your rotation would look like this,
Halladay
Hamels
Blanton
Moyer
Martinez
In the playoffs they would only use the first four of course and Pedro would go to the Pen. Even though Hamels hasn’t pitched to his ability this year, I feel that rotation is better then last year(Halladay>Myers)
I am a big Happ fan, and would like to keep him. However, he is still going to go throw some growing pains and we are going to have to pray that it doesn’t happen in the playoffs(if we get there).
Also I think the two teams have been talking for weeks(maybe even when they were in Toronto). Maybe Ricciardi wants to field some more offers and that is why they said they are listening to offers now.
My two cents on the subject.
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Bedrosian’s Beard Says:
July 10, 2009 at 12:21 pm
“If the Yankees and Sox aren’t bidding ,I would worry.”
Makes no sense.
Yes it does they bid on everything. Havent u noticed.
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If Happ is so important as to negate the trade why isnt he that important here.
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A few people have brought up comparisons to the Santana trade, but this isn’t really the same situation for 2 major reasons. Santana was looking for a 6 or 7 year monster extension for whatever team acquired him. It doesn’t appear that Halladay is asking for the extension. That alone makes it a much more competitive market. Also, Santana was traded in the offseason. We’d be getting the added value of this year’s 2nd half from him. FWIW, I think the general consensus even at the time was that the Twins didn’t get enough for Santana.
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Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Dontrelle Willis, Rich Harden…..what do they have in common??? they were all ineffective after they were overpaid or dealt for major prospects……yet Philly fans craved/drooled over them all…..what if Ed Wade would have dealt Howard for Kris Bensen or Utley for Victor Zambrano??? The best moves Ed Wade ever made were the ones he did not make.
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There is no guarantee that Halladay is still at his peak…and would the talking heads in the media stop calling him the best pitcher in baseball, there is a clear number 1 and he is pitching under the Golden Gate Bridge.
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Tom you seem to forget what league and division he plays for. He faces redsox, yanks, rays often plus dh instead of pitchers.
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In today’s game the most important players are the ones who the clubs control for 6 years(the rare exception of instant greatness like Howard & Hamels, yet they are/were great value contracts considering their production)….I know I feared that Ryan Howard was going to become the next George Bell or Ryne Sandberg, and he may have been if Thome did not hurt his elbow in 05…..there is NO reason to panic, wait the Jays out & the price comes down…..if we did not win last year, then I would be for the deal, we already have 1 World Series and the philosophy of building from within and filling in the gaps from the outside have made this ball club a good team for most of the 2000s…
They climbed the mountain once, I say sit back and let things transpire, and who knows, maybe the Jays do not move him until the winter where the price comes down. I know it will take a ton to land RH now, and I am 100% against doing it…as Paul Hagen has continually said, the 08 Phils were on the outside looking in as late as the middle of Sept, that is still 2 more months away, we will make the playoffs(the NL East is a joke this year) and once you have a ticket to the dance anything can happen…just because we have a possible Hamels/Halladay 1/2 punch GUANRANTEES ABSOLUTELY ZERO! It drives mu crazy when people act like such a deal gives us the WS again, it does not.
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MM
Roy Halladay is a bona fide, and what he has done over the past 5 years cannot be matched by anyone in MLB during that time…I am just very leery of dealing for someone who has recently come off the DL, is not nearly as dominate as he was before he was hurt, and has a lot of miles on that arm….I know RH is a stud, I just think the price is too much, there are no guarantees in life, I think too many people think a Hamels/Halladay 1/2 punch gives us the WS again, it does not.
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Lets take Galvis out since he’s currently rehabbing in the GCL, but keep Brown in even though he’s on the DL
Would you trade the Clearwater Threshers entire roster for Roy Halladay?
I think I would pretty much have to. Guys like Cloyd, Cisco, Schwimer, Kennelly are the best they have down there outside of Dom
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It certainly gives us a better chance of repeating with halladay. I’m glad that we finally have a fo w/ the win now approach who will put us in the best position to do so. I believe we could win our division the way we are now but i would like to at least make it back to the big show and i’m not as sure we can do it w/o halladay as i am that we could do it w/him.
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Pat
I think you have missed the point Santana is a great pitcher as is Halladay BUT the Mets are still the Mets and the expectation were out of line just like now. He has won a couple of games more than Moyer.
Most think Halladay makes us a sure thing. Just like the Mets thought Santana would them.
If they want to go out and him GOOD. but no Happ,no Taylor,
no Drabek, no Donald, no Marson. They are in the “money pit”
and like the movie the Gm has “two weeks” to save his job.
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As far as Halladay in the winter, we will more shinny new and maturing prospects to trade.
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Getting realistic about these circumstances, consider that Halliday comes to Philly shortly. After 1 1/2 seasons here (i.e., remainder of 2009 season plus 2010) before he hits the free agent market.
At that time, NOBODY will be able to outbid the Yankees fcor him. Thus, he and all of those suggested Phillie prospects will then also be gone.
Taylor, Brown, Marson themselves will be forming the heart of the team along with Vic, Howard, Utley, and J-Roll. All that is needed then is a decent third baseman to form what could be the all-time best 8 on the field that they’ve ever had. Together with a group of pitchers who are almost on the ready list—Carrasco (I’ve got some misgivings with him: he needs to acquire a more maturity), Savery, Carpenter, Drabek, etc., etc.
So IMO trading for short-term gain would subtract the likely superior competitiveness of this franchise for the next 3-4 years, and beyond.
Though Pedro Martinez might be ok, the rotation could use a boost. Carpenter deserves a call-up…soon!
Yes, I know that the creator of this site calls him a guy with “fringy” stuff. Yet, all he has been doing is winning…and not because his team provides lotsa runs. He is at AAA, the entre-way to the bigs. I’d take all the guys with “frngy” stuff if they keep winning games.
Not every successful ML pitcher has “electric” stuff. [Carrasco’s could sometimes be called “electric”but he doesn’t WIN games] There are and have been many ML pitchers whose stuff is not outstanding who are winners.Carpenter could well be one of them. With the pitching he has been doing at LV, he desrves a shot…and maybe could save those best prospects for continuing future good use.
An outfield of Taylor, Brown, and Vic is a gorgeous contemplation. Maybe one of the great all-time outfields doing hitting, fielding, running, throwing all of which are superior in each of them.
Marson is essential because the need for a (young) catcher is obvious. Drabek should arrive next season. The rest of the pitcher-prospect gang to arrive at the same time.
I’d much rather the team be atnear the top for the next several years into 2014.
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Not related but FYI – Werth replaces Beltran for the AS Game – what depth we have on this team…maybe we can afford to give up a bunch of prospects.
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I do believe that the Phils would do every they can to make sure Halladay would agree to an extension shortly after the deal/or season before they give up the farm for him…with that being said, in my heart of hearts I do NOT think Ruben pulls the trigger or the type of deal PP has laid out….could that be because I am against it….probably, but even though Ruben is a rookie GM, he has been playing 2nd fiddle to 2 guys who were not the types to go crazy, I think RA is much smarter than people give him credit for, and I believe about .03% of the reports of the so called “experts” when it comes to what the Phils front office is thinking.
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nowheels please Says:
July 10, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Bedrosian’s Beard Says:
July 10, 2009 at 12:21 pm
“If the Yankees and Sox aren’t bidding ,I would worry.”
________________________________________________
According to mlbtraderumors.com, the Sox have inquired.
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In considering the PP proposed trade, I am making certain assumptions.
1. We will win the Division with or without Halliday although he would help, since the competition is pretty weak.
2. Therefore, the main purpose of the trade is for the post-season. For example it is likely that we might be facing the Giants in the first round or second round of the playoffs and they will lead with Lincecum and Cain. Halliday and Hamels would be a good counter. Halliday does not guarantee a WS victory or even appearance but it makes it more likely.
3. Prospects are just that, prospects. Last year the Phillies lost out to the Brewers for the services of CC Sabathia because the Brewers had a prospect, Matt LaPorta who hit well with a lot of power in the minor leagues. This year, he has42 AB for the Indians with 1 HR, 4 RBI, a .190 BA and is back in the minors.
In conclusion, I would do the deal, but it is difficult to part with so many good prospects.
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The question is, is it for Halladay for one and a half years, or for Halladay signed to a two-year extension. If it’s the former, then no. If it’s the latter, then yes.
Drabek is the guy I would absolutely hate to lose. I could live with anyone else, just as long as it’s not Taylor AND Brown. Which I don’t think would happen.
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Art D: You don’t think maybe it’s a bit premature to call an outfield of Taylor, Brown, and Victorino one of the best of all-time? No? Really?
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Heyman on Halladay:
If the Jays do deal Halladay, they say they’re looking for two premium prospects who will be ready for the majors next year and two other prospects who are further away from making big league contributions.
—————–
*One executive says the Phillies, Giants and Angels have the best shots at acquiring Halladay.
*The Yankees and Mets have both spoken with the Blue Jays.
*It seems odd for teams to set some prospects off limits when the Jays are making Halladay available, but teams like the Rangers and Giants could conceivably deal for Doc and hold onto one or two of their top prospects.
*Heyman credits Pedro Martinez’s agent, Fern Cuza, for some impressive deals but doubts the report that suggested the Phillies will pay Pedro $4MM, unless it’s prorated.
and no way anyone takes Wells off their hands.
all from mlbtraderumors.com
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I’m not even going to guess what he means by that 2 and 2 statement. I can’t really wrap my head around “premium” and the “ready” statements. Haha, let Ruben figure that out.
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If that’s what the Jay’s would want then I say welcome to the Phillies Mr. Halladay…
Of course it would be a painful price to pay but in the end, Halladay makes the Phillies a favorite to win the WS in 2009 and 2010.
Maybe the players traded become stars, maybe not, but no-one can say that any of those 5 players make the Phillies favorites to win a WS title in 2010, 2011, 2012, etc. At best, they replace what the Phillies already have with cheaper versions.
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Good to see Dom Santanna back in the GCL lineup today. Now if we can only get Dom Brown back for Clearwater. What a start for Santana. Looks like he got an rbi single today. He is something like 5 for 9 with 12 rbi’s with RISP in the 10 games he has played. The only problem is he got hit by a pitch again today but stayed in the lineup.
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Nowheels – My point wasn’t about expectations. It was that you can’t compare the asking price (in terms of prospects) for Halladay to Santana because it’s different circumstances. Halladay will rightly command more in a trade because you’re getting an extra 1/2 season and you’re not locked into signing him to a 6 year extension after.
Does Halladay assure you of winning a WS? Of course not. But he’s an enormous upgrade and fills our biggest hole. It’s extremely unlikely that we win the series without him. People are citing last season’s pickup of Blanton as evidence that we can make a mid-level move and be fine. However, we lost Myers, Moyer is shaky at best, and we’re certainly not going to get the same near-miracle level of performance from our bullpen. Halladay is the only pitcher on the market IMO that is good enough to potentially compensate for the step back the rest of our staff has taken from ’08.
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Phuture- What about Happ? Are you willing to let him go or include him? Would you do a 6 man deal?
Happ + 1 top four Prospect + other you have mentioned?
Would you center it around Happ + Drabek? If so who else is fair. If Happ and Drabek go and we only have Halladay for 1.5 yrs, 2011 will be very interesting.
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On a separate note (though related to PP’s original post), Domingo Santana was back in the lineup today going 1 for 2 with an RBI for the GCL Phils. He missed yesterday’s game after getting HBP on Wednesday.
Santana is currently batting .333 with 3 HR, 12 RBI and 7 XBH in his first 10 games as a 16 yr old pro.
He also has 4:1 K:BB ratio thus far, but when he makes contact something positive happens.
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SIFPA Says:
3. Prospects are just that, prospects. Last year the Phillies lost out to the Brewers for the services of CC Sabathia because the Brewers had a prospect, Matt LaPorta who hit well with a lot of power in the minor leagues. This year, he has42 AB for the Indians with 1 HR, 4 RBI, a .190 BA and is back in the minors.
My friend your logic is flawed. You are saying we should make the deal when we didnt last year and beat the Brewer who beats out for CC.
Aristotle is turning in his grave.
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You do NOT HAVE to trade for Roy Halladay. If you get desperate and give up too much for a star then it WILL backfire on you. IT always does in sports. Almost always.
Drabek is not going to be traded
Taylor is not going to be traded
Brown might be traded
Knapp is only 18 or 19 so theres no reason to deem him untouchable.
The most I would offer would be Carrasco, Donald/Marson, Savery, Kendrick/Carpenter. If they twisted our arms and maybe threw in a R bench bat (Millar) then MAYBE they could squeeze Knapp out of us.
Brown is going to be our leadoff hitter in a few years
Drabek is going to challenge Hamels as our ace in a few years
taylor is going to replace Werth when he walks for big money at the end of next year.
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I do the deal for Hallday, but I also wonder why they don’t put a lesser deal out there for Danny Haren. Not officially on the trade market, but the DBacks need big time salary relief.
Three years younger, signed for 2 more years, cheaper, an absolute horse.
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I agree that Werth walks in 2 years because someone will sign him to an outrageous contract because of his massive skill set, we got him to produce on the cheap.
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Haren intesrests more than Halladay, just the name of Roy Halladay ups the ante, but the DBacks gave up a lot for Haren, and you would have to return roughly the same quality….I am very weary of giving up so many valuable blue chip prospects for a P with the mileage that RH has, Haren on the otherhand I would probably do it for.
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Nowheels, things worked out well for us last year, as Sabathia didn’t pitch that well in the playoffs, but without him the Brewers wouldn’t have made the playoffs. Obviously one player doesn’t outweigh a whole team and the Phillies were better than the Brewers last year. However, just because everything worked out well for the Phillies last year, doesn’t mean that it will be the same this year. Halladay gives us a better chance to win this year, especially in the deal proposed by PP, since no current major leaguers are involved, but I will admit that it is a tough call.
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RULZ
Bingo There is nothing not to like about Haren just as good
for Phillies purposes.
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Chris Coste designated for assignment….makes the need for a right handed bat off the bench more of a priority.
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SIFPA Your view is fine. You put it strangely but I knew what you meant
I like RulZ idea better
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When you consider the average age of the Phillies’ pitching staff and position players, together with the increasing depth of the minor league system, I think the team may just be inching toward an ideal position in which those leaving or moving into the downside of their careers in the next few years will be replaced almost seamlessly by guys coming up from the system. Therefore, instead of trying to keep the so-called window open for no more than another two or three years, the team has to look at a much longer horizon and try to keep the window open for many years. A deal for Halladay would simple negate the success achieved in the system in recent years and demand that the team rebuild its system once again. To remove five or more top quality minor leaguers from the Phillies equation would be to devastate the system and effectively close the window two or three years down the line. My recommendation would be to forget Halladay and look for an additional starter of the Blanton type, who may just be enough to get us over the hump in 09 without destroying the future. We are in first place, admittedly in a weak division but we do have as good a chance as anyone to go all the way again this year. It may be enough to simply tweak the staff as the team did in 07 and 08 and, at the same time, give some of the kids in the system a shot at starting (should another Blanton not be found). To trade guys like Drabek, Taylor and Brown and maybe even Knapp and Savery is to program collective suicide in the future.
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Agreed on Werth – I was actually surprised that they only signed him to a two year deal. I was hoping for 3 or 4, but if we keep the young guns, they can step in and roughly replace his production. We’ll also get good comp. picks as a result of his depature. It’s all part of the circle of life with a good baseball team not named the Yankees.
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Blanton got us over the edge because we had Myers coming back and performing for 6 weeks like a legit #2. We can acquire another Blanton for mid range prospects, but we have no #2 lurking.
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I voted no but you weren’t far off in your offer. I’d go Drabek, Brown ( definitely no Taylor) Donald, Worley and D’Arnaud. Coste was just DFA’d and immediately claimed by Astros. While that doesn’t necessarily preclude Marson being included, I’m leery of leaving Ruiz and Bako as our top 2 catchers. Savery has more value in the NL because of his hitting ability.
The long-term signability of Halladay is my other hang-up in doing this deal.
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Haren would be fine, but he appears to be having a career year, is younger than Halliday paid half the money and apparently is signed for longer. Who knows if a deal for him would require fewer prospects than Halliday? Aristotle says that logically it should be more prospects for Haren.
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Excellent, excellent well thought out Thread.
It also steers discussion in a clearer direction.
Thank you PP.
I think you were correct in “Setting the Bar” with the talent
listing in the pool. I voted, Yes.
I also think you are dead, on in that Halladay’s value will diminish over the Winter, and into next summer down to “Wait too long and Shoot yourself in the Foot Santana levels”.
San Francisco Giants, LA Angels, and the St. Louis Cardinals
are our main competition, all are hungry, all have Won in the past, all need too now, and have the pieces.
I think that, it will come down to this – What does the Philly
Front Office / Brain Trust want to give up for this Premier Talent?
What happens then is the List of Players you have correctly set out as the bar, becomes an OVER – UNDER, I think the Phillies will be Bidding Under, not by a lot, but Under, and the question then becomes, will SF, LAA, or StL pull the trigger and be able to outbid our lower bid?
Time will tell.
I am guessing UNDER and the Phillies get Halladay.
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The DBacks are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. That means less prospects
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no need to repeat points already made, so i will try add a few unique thoughts
1. i think that the team that gets it done is the team that takes Vernon Well’s albetross of a contract too and swaps out an mlb ready outfielder. maybe taylor is that guy, but it might be a jason werth type guy too. taking on that contract would significantly reduce the minor league talent you have to send back
2. no way he goes to the sox or yanks. PR nightmare for a GM who is already in trouble.
3. i could be wrong, but i think that PP’s package is outside of market comps. i can’t find one trade for a top pitcher that has that quality of players in return.
– for Santana – the OF Gomez was the one jewel in that trade.
– for CC – it was LaPorta and little else.
– Dan Harren might be the best comp though because he was not in the walk year. That being said, he was much, much younger than Halladay right now. And below is what Keith Law said about the prospects that Arizona gave up. That to me isn’t equal to “Drabek + one of Taylor/Brown + Marson + Donald + Savery”. I just don’t think that i am overvalueing our guys either as PP’s package has two top 25 propspects in all of basebeall going back to them plus Marson (to me donald and savery are throw ins). I think that CC + Taylor + Marson + Donald +Savery (if they really want him) gets it done. And we could probably take someone off that list if we swap Wells for Werth. See below before you comment.
——–
The two prizes in the deal for Oakland are outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and left-handed starter Brett Anderson. Gonzalez is a high-ceiling prospect whose tools are average or better across the board, but his game is undisciplined and he’s a high-risk proposition. He has a clean, simple swing and takes a short path to the ball, and he shows above-average power in batting practice that hasn’t fully translated into games yet. His approach, however, is poor; he doesn’t recognize offspeed pitches or adjust his approach by the situation, and while he’s young (he just turned 22 in October), he’s getting to the point where he should be making at least some of these adjustments. He has enough arm to play right field, but he returned to center for most of the last month of the 2007 season and has star potential if he can play there. His offensive upside would be something like .300/.340/.500, although the power output might be dampened by Oakland’s big park and the two other pitchers’ parks in the American League West.
Anderson, the son of Oklahoma State baseball coach Frank Anderson, is a pitchability lefty who already has an above-average curveball with good depth and an average fastball in the 87-89 mph range with very good sink. His best attributes, however, are his control and his feel for pitching, both of which are unusually good for a teenaged pitcher (he will turn 20 in February) in pro ball. There’s always some concern about young pitchers who’ve thrown a lot of breaking balls (Anderson also throws a slider, but it’s inconsistent), and Anderson does throw across his body a bit. He missed most of last August after being involved in a late-July car accident, although one report on minorleaguebaseball.com said he was out with a “tender arm.” He’s a very good prospect, but with some red flags typical of teenaged pitchers.
Oakland also picked up two candidates for its 2008 rotation in lefties Dana Eveland and Greg Smith. Eveland missed most of 2007 with a strained finger on his pitching hand, but also struggled to keep his weight in check and did not pitch well in two cups of coffee with Arizona. When healthy and relatively trim, Eveland has an average fastball and a plus slider, with a spiking curveball that fools minor-league hitters, something major-league hitters will probably lay off. Smith has a solid-average fastball and a 12-to-6 curve that is his out pitch; he has good control but tends to throw across his body when he needs to pitch to his glove side. His third pitch, his changeup, is below average and he’ll need to improve it (or pick up a splitter) to get right-handed hitters out in the majors.
Two minor-league bats rounded out the deal. Oakland got the same Chris Carter that Arizona acquired from the White Sox in a trade in early December; he’s a very young, defensively-challenged slugger with big raw power now and the potential to hit 30-plus homers in the majors if he can do enough other things to make it there. Aaron Cunningham projects as a very good fourth outfielder who can play all three outfield spots and who can be a pinch-runner off the bench, but he isn’t quite good enough in center to start there and doesn’t have the power to profile in a corner spot.
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I don’t know. I like Taylor a lot and would rather keep him than Dom, but I think the fact that he is *currently* blocked for the next 2 years and the fact that popular consensus has Brown as the higher ceiling guy, means that the Phillies would rather lose Taylor than Brown.
Some may think otherwise, but that’s how it seems the Phils are looking at it. Taylor is almost, and some may even think this year, ready for at least a bit part role on a major league roster.
Taylor and Carrasco could fit the bill when it comes to the two players ready for next year and the ones ready in two may be a bit easier to swallow if it isn’t Knapp or Brown.
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I saw some of Anderson’s game and his breaking pitch was
“dirty filthy”
The A’s seem to come out ahead.
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Right on PP Fan Ricarrdi is not the first GM who had to “listen” on a outstanding but high paid pitcher on a 4th place team who is worried about 2nd half attendance. I am sure that the Indians were just testing the waters with Sabathia, also. Halladay is a great pitcher but if the Phils were to give up as much as many are suggesting it would be without recent precedent. Way more than the Mets gave up for Santanna
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Is there still bad blood between Bedard and management????
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PP, I respectfully disagree. I think the Jays HAVE to trade Halladay whether they like it or not. They have had serious attendance issues and their revenue is down big time. Their ownership (Rogers Communications) hasn’t had the greatest year either. They very well might need to seriously cut payroll. Rios and Wells are pretty much untradeable so this might be their only option. His value only goes down from now to the off-season and next season.
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Who was the last elite level P traded around the deadline that led his team to a World Series victory that year? Schilling helped lead the DBacks to a title a year after he was dealt, but Randy Johnson was at the time about 5 times better than Hamels is right now. Other than that, I cannot think of anyone off the top of my head.
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When’s the last time a defending WS champion made such a trade? Its a unique situation.
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Yankees did so when they dealt Boomer Wells for Clemens, but I believe that was in the offseason if I’m not mistaken.
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Geez, I think we got the better of the 2 A’s pitchers dealt last year…Harden is brutal this year, not too mention Blanton is cheaper.
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brown yes taylor no not with marson or donald. drabek, brown savery ihave no problem with but i think marson and donald are being seriously undervalued. maybe donald but not marson. so thats drabek, brown, donald, savery. thats enough.
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The last time a WS team made drastic moves and it paid off was….’93 Blue Jays. How did that story end again?
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Granted getting halladay doesn’t win a world series but it sure as hell increases our chances. He is a known quantity and will probably will pitch well for at least 3-5 years drabek might turn out to be brad brink i just don’t get why everyone is afraid to deal these prospects, i want to win and this won’t empty our farm system. we will still have players to talk about on this site. there are bunch of ridiculous trade scenarios that some people throw out on this site its just embarrassing to read sometimes, but the majority of the posters on this site have great things to say and i appreciated their contributions.
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this would be to much to give up. Pitchers can go bad very quickly and then we’d be left with nothing. I would go as far as Carassco, Brown/Marson, Donald + Savery/Worley . NOT Drabek, NOT Taylor, NOT Knapp
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Something to consider, and I haven’t read every comment, so I don’t know if it was covered, is that the free agent market this winter, SP wise, is really poor. Halladay is more than a rental, even if he doesn’t sign a long term deal, which I think it would be foolish to even assume would be the case.
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The Phillies need to be patient here. They’re willing and able to outbid every other team for Halladay, so they shouldn’t set the market. The price is currently too high, but could drop as the deadline draws closer. Let another team make an offer, then top it. The packages we’re talking about are significantly more than the Mets gave for Santana, the Cubs gave for Harden, and the Brewers gave for Sabathia. I realize those were different situations, but I just think we need to be patient.
Perhaps I’m just higher on Drabek than others, but I wouldn’t part with him unless it meant removing Brown/Taylor+another player from the deal. I would not trade both Drabek AND Taylor/Brown or Happ. I think a deal can be reached without including Drabek.
For example:
Happ, Brown, Carrasco, Donald, Worley
Brown, Carrasco, Donald, Marson, Savery
Taylor, Mayberry, Donald, Savery, Happ
Those are extremely attractive packages that would be hard to reject.
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I think we are all missing a big point. At this point we are not negotiating against anyone. NO other team has epxressed interest. THe reason JP Ricciadi made this public is that the market is actuallly kind of luke warm.
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That Dude-
“no other team as expressed interest”…seriously? For Halladay? Not the Cards, Rangers, or Giants??
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drabek, brown, marson, donald, savery would maybe do it
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So wait Ricciardi out then…We’re currently winning games, in first place and surviving. We don’t NEED to make the trade this week. Let Ricciardi sweat a bit. We can outbid any other team. The other teams involved can’t afford his salary very easily anyway. Do the Giants really need another starter to begin with? They already have the best rotation in baseball afterall.
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payday, if that didn’t do it then we shouldn’t be making the trade. Our top 2 prospects and 2 almost MLB ready prospects as well as Savery is a Crapload for this type of trade.
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NEPP, Payday
Agreed with the names as well…and Happ stays out. Otherwise leave it alone and look to C. Lee or perhaps Haren.
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Did flande get hurt?
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Drabek, Brown,Marson,Donald and Savery I would do this deal. Reason is pretty simple, it still leaves you with Bastardo, Carassco,Taylor,Worley,Stutes,Escalona,Kendrick,Carpenter and Mayberry in AA and AAA. That is stil a decent amount of prospects. You still have some blue chippers in Carassco and Taylor and some other darn good ones in guys like Bastardo.
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That Dude-
“no other team as expressed interest”…seriously? For Halladay? Not the Cards, Rangers, or Giants??
Well show me…The Phillies are pretty much the only team realistically involved. I say wait it out, the price will come down and it is NO COINCIDENCE that JP went public with this. MOst teams won’t take on payroll and/or do not have prospects.
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btw, Michael Taylor is 3-4 with a RBI tonight
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That Dude-
I see your point, and I agree to wait out. However I can’t believe there isn’t at least some truth behind the rumors about other clubs showing interest in arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Aside from being an American League team, Texas has the prospects.
Would you give up Taylor or Brown?
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Mike–
My guess is that Flande was pulled to give him a chance to stay fresh for the Futures Game on Sunday.
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I could see Texas making a deal. They really need pitching and they have the prospects. I don’t see the Giants, Cards, Yanks, or BoSox as real players…or the Dodgers for that matter.
the Rangers, Angels and Phillies seem to be the real serious buyers in this one.
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texas is in financial trouble. ruiz is 30 and gets hurt. i wouldnt include marson. as a matter of fact he should be here now over bako. brown drabek numbers 17 and 24 in ba. taylor no way. dealing happ defeats the purpose of the deal. happ is not kendrick, far from it. savery yes if need be donald.
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You sign Pedro and Happ is expendable. Thus you include him and Carrasco in a deal instead of Drabek.
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I would try very hard to convince the Blue Jays to take Carrasco and Knapp instead of Drabek. From the Phillies perspective it allows them to keep a projected #1 or 2 starter who is closer to the show than Knapp and therefore fits what is perceived to be the 3-5 year window this current roster ( Rollins ,Utley, Howard especially) has to win another W.S.
He also is a better option if Halladay signs elsewhere after next year. ( I think he will sign here but you never know whenever money is involved).
A 2010/2011 rotation of Hamels, Halladay, Drabek, Blanton and Happ is a good combination of youth, talent and experience.
If the Jays see themselves as rebuilding for 2011 and beyond, taking a close to the big leagues, highly rated prospect in Carrasco appeases their fans while Knapp becomes the heir apparent to Halladay in 4 years.
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Did you ever see a team score twenty runs in a game without a homer? It happen today in a minor league game
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I offer them Carrasco, Brown/Taylor, Donald, & a middle prospect like Savery/Flande/Worley.
Quite frankly if someone else can top it, or they decide to hold onto Halladay be my guest. But I’m not trading away the teams entire farm system for one pitcher.
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This is my first time commenting and I have to say no I wouldn’t do that deal. I feel almost insane for saying no because the Phillies never have the opportunity to make such a blockbuster, but at the same they never had such a great system while being a great on the field team. I think this is our once chance to be a premier team in baseball for a while because of our farm system and it would be a shame to throw that all away. I know Halladay is amazing and he would immediately make us better, but at the end of the day he doesn’t guarantee us to win anything. We see teams make big splashes year after year, but most of them don’t end up taking home the ultimate prize. It’s not about going after the biggest name, it’s about making solid baseball moves that puts you in a position to succeed now and in the future.
I would have a hard time giving up prospects like Drabek, Taylor, Marson, and Donald all in the same deal because they are our best bet to become major leaguers at this point. Maybe I am overvaluing these guys, but it seems extremely unwise to give up that much potential major league talent in one deal. I know Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the game if not the best, but can anyone think of a deal where a team has given up that much potential major league talent that hasn’t gone on to regret it? I guess I’m just fearful something of it turning out something like when the Expos gave up Lee, Sizemore, and Philips for Colon. If these guys do turn out to be major league players then it would be a hard pill to swallow especially after seeing what the Mets gave up for Santana and what we received for Schilling and Rolen. Granted, these situations were all different, but it seems like most deals involving superstars end up with more quantity than quality. Then again, like I said, maybe I am completely overrating our guys and they’ll end up flaming out like most prospects, but if you think they have a good shot at becoming major leaguers then you just can’t give up that much of your future.
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You have to realize the prospects of winning now and creating a dynasty. Would you rather have a team that is competitive for the next several years or have one that has the good possibility of winning a second or third world series. The Eagles have done a great job of putting a good product on the field but manages to fall when they face the best teams. Personally I would rather win back to back champions ships and maybe a third with what we have now then speculating on future talent….Those posts with Donald and Carrasco being the centerpieces of a trade are ridiculous. To get the best pitcher in baseball over the past 5 years requires giving high end talent. I feel that we can afford to give up a Drabek and Taylor/Brown and still have a decent minor league system. Honestly were talking about guys years away from making any kind of contribution aka Jason Knapp. The key is to win now and build a franchise that is known for winning everything.
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Just got back from the Reading Phillies game tonight with only a couple of bug bits. To me, after watching Flande warm up and pitch the first two innngs of the game, there is no greater injustice than sending him to the Futures game played beneath the beautiful Gateway Arch in St. Louis on Sunday. Yet at the same time Michael Taylor gets stuck playing on an island field in the middle of a bug invested river in south central Pa. All I can say is that a shortage of international lefthanded pitching prospects must exist if Flande is one of the best and all the outfield prospects who beat out Taylor for Team USA must be already destined for Cooperstown. Tonight Taylor hit two frozen ropes up the middle for a single and double. He was on base four of his six at bats. But what impressed me the most was that Harrisburg’s manager refused to run on Taylor in right and it was good he didn’t as Taylor on one play threw a one hop laser to the plate to hold a runner at third when the outcome of the game was still in doubt. Whichever team Taylor breaks into the majors with, and I would be stunned if he ever plays for the Phils, will get an All Star lock in left or right for many years to come.
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Yeah because it’s one or the other obviously. It’s not like you can’t be good while and win world series’ over the time. Follow the Red Sox model of winning and you’ll get closer than following
BTW here’s the last 3 trades of top pitchers. CC obviously was only a half season. But Johan was 1 full year, and Haren was for a lot longer than that.
Dan Haren went for – Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, and Aaron Cunningham
Johan Santana went for – Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra
CC Sabbathia went for – Matt Laporta, and Michael Brantley
It’s not like there’s a track record of 2-3 top 25 prospects, plus another top 100 prospect or two.
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FG – Your outlook is perfect. The Phils won the WS last year without blowing up the entire system and it can be done again. If not this year, then in the near future. What is important is that the FO be consistently concerned with fielding a very good, albeit not overpowering team, every year, without falling into the temptation of trying to overwhelm everyone else over the short-term. Right now, the Phillies have a very good offensive and defensive team with some holes in the pitching staff. Nonetheless, we are in first place moving into the All Star break. There is no need for detonating the entire system for a Halladay. Imagine giving up 4 or 5 top of the line prospects for him and he hurts himself or the Phils simply do not win it all. The team will have pawned its future in the pursuit of frustrated short-term success and it would take a long time to fix the system again. Let’s go with what we’ve got, while the FO tweaks the lineup as needed as was so successfully done in 08 and 07.
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.303 How many even dreamed Marson would hit that by the end of the season yet alone now. Whatever caused the slow start is history.
To trade Marson now would be criminal. It seems management has finally seen the light. Coste was a nice man who got a couple years of reward for hard work but if the team is to win by scoring everyone has to contribute.
Anyway whatever happens Marson should be proud.
It will be interesting to see how the Futures game effects
Flande
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Just wanted to add a few points
No one seems to mention the bedard trade where the mariners gave up adam jones, george sherrill, and top pitching prospect chris tillman for Bedard. Their GM was on the hot seat but it still should be mentioned.
And also people keep sayings its important to go for the championship right now but lets be honest 3 years from now if we mortgaged our future and lost 2 to 3 centerpiece players would you regret it even with a Series win? Of course you would. We just won the world series last year and people are already trying to sell the farm for another.
Is signing halladay (and losing 4 or 5 prospects) better then waiting until this free agency and signing Lackey (and losing only draft picks)? Even if we trade for Halladay we’re no locks to win the series and we’re making the playoffs with or without him. Think about what the vegas odds would be? 3 to 1 at best and thats being generous. So were trading 4 or 5 good prospects to move up to a 33 percent chance at best at winning the series when our team is almost a lock to make the playoffs and it can be a crapshoot from there anyways?
I’m all about trading Halladay in the right deal. But It would have to be Carrasco and Brown/Taylor at best not 2 of the top 3 prospects with other useful pieces.
We dont want to be the team that trades Sizemore, Cliff lee, and Brandon phillips for Bartolo Colon. Think about it this way. If we don’t trade for halladay it is bareable and we would have other options. If we make a deal like that I don’t know if thats a pill any of us would be able to swallow even with a world series.
These guys have that kind of Ceiling.
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you cant compare happ and martinez. please dont even mention the eagles on this site, they pale in comparison to the phillies. the boston model? great as long as our next 5 drafts would be as productive as theirs. we can win it without halliday. what if , knock on wood , ruiz goes down august 2 whos your catcher bako? what if feliz goes down august 2 who,s your 3rd baseman, brunlett? i prefer marson and donald. drabek and brown yes thats the boston model. give yourself a CHANCE to win it the next ten years. what if you trade taylor, drabek carrasco and marson and halliday doesnt sign. you rented him for 2 seasons? not me. were in the drivers seat they take what we offer in a polite way or we say goodbye.
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I don’t know what to make of all this. The good thing is I was talking to a relocated Phils Phan who had no idea we had this much talent in the minors. So, we are in the mix for Halladay. I guess it depends on what anyone else is able to offer. Angels just lost two starters, so they will not be parting with Kendrick any time soon. I know the Rangers are loaded with prospects, but does this guy want to go there. Look at our situation:
1. World champions
2. Young core
3. Have $$
4. Have prospects to get it done.
5. Need that front line guy
Let’s get this done and we are the favorites to win the ring again.
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Interesting bit of news reguarding Halladay and it ties as far as prospects. On 950 yesterday afternoon Sal Pal had one of the toronto writers on and he made a point that the Phillies and Toronto know each others minor league systems as good as any two teams in baseball. They train close together in Florida they are in allot of the same leagues etc. He said the GM’s have a good working relationship, After that there was a fire alarm where he was and I didn’t hear anything else. But the point is good that they both know each others systems well. This could very well work to the Phillies advantage (or disadvantage if they don’t like our prospects) Just and interesting side bar on the Halladay thing
Also I don’t know the lower minors as well as AA and AAA (since those are the parks that are close to my home) Is there another Drabek type pitcher in the System. Is Knapp potentially as high a ceiling as Drabek? Considering Hamels, Halladay, Blanton would be sure things in the rotation next year with Moyer being 50/50 since he is signed. Is it concievabel that Knapp is in AA next year knocking on the door just like Drabek is.
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Knapp is still 18 and in low A, so maybe that’s a factor. He is in Baseball America’s top 50.
Since this is odds and ends, Baseball America reports Phillies have signed Harol Tolentino . The transaction says RHP, but the biography says LHP. He is around 21. He played in Class A, (Short Season) last season.
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Knapp would likely begin 2010 in Clearwater. Should he meet resounding success, it is conceivable that the Phillies could push him to Reading by midseason. Health is the key.
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The Rangers are NOT in the mix. MLB had to lend their owner 30M for operating costs. There is NO way they will take on salary.
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Does anyone believe Marson is up after the break??
Does Ruiz have options?
Who would of believed that Paul(ground ball to the second baseman) Bako would be the man? OMG
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I really do understand where most people are coming from who don’t want to give up our major prospects, but we have to realize that youth systems in all sports are there to make the team better. Anyway it can.
We’ve seen how quickly our system has turned around from just a couple years ago, heck from just last year. If the club continues to scout and do things the right way (getting lucky in the process) we could just continue to reload.
Having a pitcher of Doc’s caliber on the team along with Cole (if they stay healthy) is a great 1-2 punch at the top.
I’m fine with taking the chance that our club will continue to upgrade the talent in the system and getting the best pitcher in baseball who has played in and taken care of the AL East for years.
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blues
A couple of years from now you might be right maybe even a couple of months. Lets see what happens after the break. Clearly releasing Coste is a signal of what I dont know. lol
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If you do get Halladay and he leaves after 2010 with Jayson Werth you are looking at 4 compensation picks in the first 50 picks or so (unless Werth signs with a bad team). That’s enough to re-stock your farm system right there. Get it done.
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Yea, that was my point before hand about jdub. If he keeps on doing what he’s doing then he will be a type A. I don’t really see the benefit of trading him right now. We should offer him arbitration so any team that signs him will have to pony up.
4 players with 20+ HRs before the break. That’s beyond awesome. Figure where we’d be if we had decent starting pitching to start the year.
Halladay can only make this team better RIGHT NOW! The future is in the future and anything can happen, but for this season there are few others that fit what we want to do better. I’d figure we’d sign him long term too given that we were going to be needing a real top of rotation starter with Brett gone this winter.
Marson should be up by now.
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You are omitting one thing. You will have to offer both contracts when you are already topped out. Even if you do
three or four years to get them to the majors.
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That is way too much to give up for a guy that will be a FA after the 2010 season! No way would I give up Drabek or Brown. I think 4 prospect (2 are Major League ready or close) and Happ and Kendrick both have Major League experience.
Taylor + Marson + Donald + either Happ or Savery for Halladay and Kendrick.
If the Jays don’t want this, walk away! I am a firm believe that you should never trade away pitching. Look at Gavin Floyd, be no one would do this trade again.
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Next year a lot of money is going to be coming off the books. We won’t be topped out.
I’m not quite following your train of thought there in your third sentence. Mind putting it in a different way.
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that was @ nowheels.
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Okey dOkey
If you use compensation draft picks. They will take about that time to get to the majors, At least three years.
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With the Phillies ‘window’ supposedly 2009-2011 I would definitely trade Brown over Taylor. Brown probably has more value, is lefthanded (as are Ibanez,Howard,Utley), and is a little further away. Taylor would be the injury call-up/4thOF in 2010 and take over for Werth in 2011.
Happ has produced for the Phillies (MLB team at CBP!). That is very important. Drabek has great potential and could be a Phillie by mid-2010. Phillies are stuck with Moyer, then scrambling for a 5th SP. Myers should could be re-signed for next year. Carrasco, who knows? I’d tell BJ’s to pick between Happ(current) or Drabek(future).
Really want to keep Marson at this point. As expected Ruiz is proving to be a below average catcher but how great would it be to have him as a backup?! I love Donald as a Bruntlett replacement. Bako/Bruntlett becomes Marson/Donald! I’d like to tell BJ to pick only one but unfortunately, I think we’d have to include both.
Probably add another AA pitcher: Stutes/Worley/Savery.
I agree with PP on the trade but my best case is:
Happ, Brown, Marson, Donald, Stutes.
With this deal, Phillies would need to sign the best backup INF and C they can buy in the off-season and pray their catching depth moves quickly through the system. They still have Carrasco, Drabek, Taylor as quality players for 2010-11. Bastardo, Escalona in bullpen, and Kendrick, Carpenter, Worley as 5th starter callups.
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please stop with gavin floyd. he was a deer in the headlights here. and now he is very overated. i fail to see why a.l. teams dont load up on lefties against him. he,d be toast.
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Carrasco, Donald , Knapp and Brown. 2 guys ready now and 2 guys ready in 2-4 years with high ceilings. If Toronto doesn’t take that screw ’em. Sign Colvin and Stewart to replace Knapp and Brown. Keep the prospects flowing.
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As I have posted in other topics here, go watch Taylor play for a few weeks and you will not bring his name up in trade discussions. Not just his stats, but his whole personality, he is a good guy and “gets it”. Guys with his size that hit for power and average, have plus speed, and an absolute cannon arm (teams do not even attempt to run on him) and on top of that is a good person, you don’t give up. I realize no one is untouchable, it just depends on what you will be getting in return, but we don’t NEED Halliday now. The NL east is terrible and all you have to do is get to the playoffs and anything can happen. Marson is our future starting catcher, Happ a solid # 3, Taylor a future perrenial all-star, and Drabek a future #1/2, you are willing to give that up for Halliday who gives us a slightly better chance of winning the WS? I say we take our chances with Hamels, Blanton, Happ in the playoffs unless we can keep above mentioned players. Maybe go get another #2/3 starter and give up Donald and a tier 2 starter in our system.
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There has been a lot of talk about no need offense from a catcher. Let me introduce a term “linkage” sort of like turning the lineup over. A prime example is the recent 10 run inning.
Carlos Ruiz comes to bat. The Phils have scored 4 run but there are two outs. Ruiz walks (not much but more than he has been doing) Then the Phils score six more. Carlos
while not hitting at least link two parts of an inning.
Production is important from everyone.
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Matt LaPorta started the year as the #27 prospect according to Baseball America. As of the midseason report, our top 3 guys are above that ranking (granted it is before rookies are included). Halladay has another year on his contract, but we honestly can’t be talking about giving up 2 LaPortas. If that’s what it does take, you do not just overspend to get an asset, that’s bad business. Ask the cubs and astros how they feel about outspending the Phillies on Soriano and Lee…thankgod we lost those bidding wars.
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viking it sounds like you go to the reading games alot. i pretty much agree with your assessment except i think donald should be here instead of bruntlett. ais i trade drabek brown savery. can you give your reports more often. especially on pitching.
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I am sure that Halladay would pitch for the Phils 1.5 years. They will not pay him 20 Mil at age 34. At that point he will have thrown alot of innings. I think that they would give not more than 2 top prospects and maybe 2 lesser ones. Then you get the 2 #1 picks in 2011 draft and it makes sense from the Phils side. It does not matter what some other club is willing to do, you do what makes sense for your club.
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now please in my opinion and not to be mean, but that argument makes no sense. Even brunlett walks sometimes,
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The more I try to think about this from the Jays perspective, it seems like dealing Halladay for the best collection of prospects/young players they can get would be the smart move for them. I just don’t think that can pay Halladay what he’ll want in his next contract and pay Vernon Wells’ ridiculous contract. There’s a very short list of teams that can spend that kind of cash on 2 players and the Jays are not on it(not with today’s economy).
So their only real option is to take a final shot with Halladay next year and then let him walk for some draft picks, or deal him now.
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mikemike
My point was that that kind of thing doesn’t happen enough. I was trying to show every position in the lineup has value.
The idea that you can get along with no offensive production
from a catcher is wrong especially on a team with moderate
pitching.
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Let’s see if I can do better. Every hit or walk as the potential
to boast the value of the hit or walk before and after it.
A single etc by itself my mean nothing but if i follow it with another hit it gains value etc. etc.
So a deadspot is more than itself
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I’m sorry, I just think you don’t have to make the deal PP stated. We are one of the few teams that has the prospects and the money to support such a deal. This is a buyer’s market.
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Cole has given up two HRs already in the first innings. Trouble!
I wish they had left him in Florida in the beginning of the season. I dont know what they do now.
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what the hell is bako calling. give a fastball down the middle.
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Is it Bako or Dubee telling him how to call the game?
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Nowheels if you think there is trouble w/cole then don’t we almost need to pull off this trade? It will set us back a little but cole is not an ace this year so far and it’s tough to win with one let alone w/o one. I feel you, it would be very hard to lose so many top prospects but we need halladay. Pedro alone will not make us a better team.
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The way I see it is once your in the playoffs its a crapshoot. And the Phils have a very good chance of making the playoffs. You dont need to trade away the farm when your already winning the division. You do it when you havent made the playoffs in years and finally have a chance to make it and your missing one piece. Teams like Florida or The Giants need to make moves not us.
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I am so happy we won last year but I do not want to mortgage the future. I do not want to be back to those 80’s and 90’s teams (except the 93 team). The 2009 team has a chance – Hamels, Happ and Blanton might be abl to do it. But I know in 2 years Hamels, Drabek, Happ, Carrasco and a 5th will atleast keep us in every game including October.
I have said before. Taylor is taking Werths spot. Brown will be in rauuuuls spot. I must say that I am shocked by Marson’s production the last 6 weeks in AAA. He might be ready and better then I thought. No deal with for Halladay. Stay the course we have what it takes
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Ohhhh by the way I think I said happ was our best prospect in voting this past winter. Love tooting my horn
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I forgot that the ability to predict the future had manifested itself finally in humans. This is a banner day for us all…
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marky mark
Sure looked that way in the second inning when i turned the game off(silly me). As soon as you stop having faith in Hamels
be bounces back. But never the less the pressure is growing
for someone.
Also Durbin has been ordinary.
One fun note T Walker (W, 1-0) mop up one good.
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I am starting to believe the halladay trade will only be made, if a team is willing to give them five prospect and how many teams can afford five good prospect? And two major league ready and cheap. So it would have to be Taylor, Drabek, Happ, Worley, Donald or Marson, that is a lot to give for a year and a half pitcher, and pitchers get hurt too much to risk it to me.
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So, two key hits for Bako. Where’s the bustin’ off about Catcher , now? So much for the not callin’ a good game , as well. Bako is capable of an occasional hit, now and then, as is Ruiz. Ruiz could also hit at an above average level for an extended period, as he has done in the past. Like I always say, defense is what matters at catcher, and Ruiz and Bako are the best defensive options right now. Marson would be extremely hard-pressed to handle the defensive responsibilities at Catcher from this point in the season, going through the possible world series. And he went 1 for 4 with 3 strikeouts.last night. 3 strikeouts! Too bad he was never called “toolsy”, then I could read another 100 inches of whining about it.
Oh yeah, by the way. The idea of obtaining someone for a pennant run , is to add to what they have , not to trade off, regress or stay even. Nobody said they’d trade Happ. I would say he’s the 3rd pitcher, as of now, so why trade him? Ruben, himself, said the goal is to add, some time back.
I doubt they just let Werth walk, in hopes of a couple draft picks. Some of the trades on here, and such are way off.
On an organiztional note, I had not noticed before and maybe it has been before, but , on the Williamsport roster, if you click on the players there are pictures of most up now.
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nice try Marfis
My words were before the game and before Bako raised his average to .214. He is an average throwem out guy but a nice backup. Marson has now proved himself enough for a real try.
Remarkable game last night while I slept.
Werth has stopped doing some of the things that drove me nuts like reaching for ball like Utley. He is still not there against RHers but he will keep improved I CAN be converted
Note RRAAAUUUUUL is the man but lets remember he is 37 and give him a freaken day off once in a while and use
Mayberry on defense to rest him more. He is too valuable to lose again.
Hey Cisco you did it again
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I am of the opinion that Bako stinks, and Marson is ready to make his mark, he will be a on base type player no power but bako and ruiz have little power, What is so wrong with giving this kid a chance. how much more can he prove at Lehigh Valley? Oh he struck out three times what does that mean, one game
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Marson even hitting eight works into my statement about extending each inning can be very important more than at first thought.
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I realize he’s pitching against a bunch of guys who will be working at UPS in the off-season, but Scott Mathieson is doing really well so far for the GCL Phils…4 appearances, 6IP, 3H, 2BB, most importantly 8K
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Yeah , Mathieson Will Complete his Re-Hab assignment, and get assigned to a higher level. If he does well, maybe he gets a look to bolster forces in September.
Marson, as I said above, it would be a foolhardy move to expect him to handle the defensive responsibilities of going through the World Series , at this point. He is line to be called up as the 3rd Catcher, once the September call-up period commences.. Let him get as much playing time late as he can warrant , outside of pennant etc. significant games. Since he seems to have acclimated to the AAA level, (If he stays on track in September) Let him compete for a starting role , next Spring Training.
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philly jamaal
Health wise next year would be safe. However unless I am mistaken Mathieson must be protected this winter. That is a puzzlement and the Phils may want to see seriously more.
I dont know who they have to protect.
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i always hear this lets get somebody at bats, one of the biggest cliches in bb. marson needs at bats in the majors. this lets get somebody at bats is another way of saying keep him down. if marson catches 2 games a week with ph duties hell learn more in 3 months than 1 year at lhv. its like taylor you think he,s going to learn anything more at reading? no but if they move him to lhv. hell force a move to the majors. hes ready too. its like your 6 years old with straight a,s how many times can they force you to repeat 1st grade. 3 months of marson here is worth 1000 minor league at bats. a pennett race is the greatest learning experience there is, and if you dont think he can do it trade him. btw i got to the game late last night, best game of the season. a playoff atnosphere.
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I think i would now prefer haren if he is locked up for longer which i think he is. If we got him for 3 1/2 would anyone else prefer him? wheels, john, anyone? Does this change things for you and ease the pain of losing the same boat load of prospects but have a #1 locked up for longer?
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No Taylor,no Marson! Hopefully no Donald, no Drabek.I think we need the first three this year if nothing else insurance.
I guess I will live with others gone.
Haren I really like. Halladay is great but we can live with a notch below. Lets face it $$$$$$$$ are important when they are stacked that high.
BTW Post game show Mike m. “Happ is pitching fairly decently” Happ gets no “propers” OH YEAH NO HAPP
at least until he loses a game.
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Can we NOT complain about our backup catcher. It’s infuriating.
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C’mon Joe his game winning hit was an out if the infield isnt in.
BTW yes I can. I want the best team out there. The Menoza line is a line of shame to be looking up at it is infuriating.
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Went to see Taylor play over the weekend. Gotta give it to the Harrisburg manager. He appears to have order his pitchers to give Mike nothing to hit. Last night in his first at bat he was hit on the hands in his first at bat as the pitcher tried to move him off the plate . This afternoon he walked three times. Got nothing to hit. It was 3-0 counts before you knew it. Gotta move him to AAA. He has nothing to prove at AA and at least the National AA farmhands are giving him nothing to swing at.
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I noticed the three walks. I can”t believe he wasn’t in the futures game. Please Ruben don’t trade him.
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Hewitt with another bomb, average creeping up, imagine if he meets his potential?
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Nowheels- Don’t you have anything better to worry about than the 25th man on the Phillies roster? That’s a rhetorical question- Seriously, either way this isn’t the place to complain about our backup catcher. Its ridiculous- we all know how you feel about Bako and Bruntlett. You don’t need to remind us every single thread.
And complaining about Taylor not being in the futures game is a mute point- each team is only allowed two players- we had Drabek and Flande who were both very deserving at selection time.
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and please find me the closest bridge, if i have to hear they should have left hamels in florida one more time(which would make it 2,567,001 times)
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“Lets face it $$$$$$$$ are important when they are stacked that high.”
Yes – another reason for (not against) a Halladay trade, as he has a below market contract. I’m a little surprised how (relatively) little the Phillies have committed for contracts for next year (thanks for the contracts link in the other thread, btw, though I foget who posted it). They have a lot coming off the books next year & can certainly afford Halladay.
Which is not by itself conclusive – I still think the price (in prospects) may be too high. Of course, a lot (most?) of the proposed alternatives may in fact not be available.
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Please dont take the bridge no one will know who you are.
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Halladay makes less this year than Myers. That shit’s absurd. Also, do we get any of Myer’s contract back since he’s out for the year?
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Here’s what I would prefer from my backup catcher:
I would prefer a backup catcher that can’t hit a lick, but will call a good game and can play decent defense
to:
A catcher who will bat .260 but doesn’t know how to frame, call a game, and can’t block pitchers in the dirt well.
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Right Joe and I dont believe Myers ever got into perfect shape until they sent him back. He had trouble going 60 pitches.
Didnt Wade sign that contract?
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Tough game for Nic Hernandez of Williamsport. Lost a no hit, no run game in the top of the 7th with one out of a 7 inning game. Truby and Filer left him for 108 pitches. Now tied 1-1 in the bottom of the 7th.
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I didn’t like Filer at Reading. No reason to go 108 unless you are a good ole boy.
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Rickey Branch
This is an example of the “one more inning thing”. The coaches push for one more inning and in this case walk,strike out and the count builds. It isnt like they dont have other pitchers who need work. Many pitchers are hurt by coaches
REWARDING them for a good performance
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Not even to finish a no-hitter?
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i believe haren is the best righty in bb and lester is the best lefty. who says marson cannot block the plate or catch balls in the dirt or call a game? where does anyone hear these things. please dont tell me happ is an average pitcher. his pitch selection and locations are excellant. to compare him to kendrick is insane. he,s easily a number 3 maybe a number 2.
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how many pitches would he have needed to finish the game?
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I am officially a believer in happ and don’t want him or marson included if we don’t have to and i never wanted taylor included. I’d give quantity which usually doesn’t get it done but take it or leave it jays-Brown, carrasco, donald, bastardo, mayberry, carpenter, flande, savery.
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I’d like to see marson get a sept. callup, platoon with ruiz next year and start in 2011 like posada did his 1st year as a yankee. In his prime years he should hit 300-10-75.
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one thing that is a reality taylor who i want to keep, must be up next year. and theres no way i move werth, vic, or ibanez. 4 doesnt go into 3. it leads me to believe brown will stay and taylor will go. i hate to say that. but browmn will not be here until 2011 or 2012, thats probably why their keeping him at single a. and probably an entire year at aa in 2010.
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another thing thats driving me crazy is what i hear in the media. “there only only prospects” well at one time halliday utley howard, anyboby was only a prospect.
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Taylor could make it a nice outfield rotation next year. Raul will be 38, Werth look silly against some right handers and although Taylor is also right handed he could help there.
Werth is good for a couple in center. Charlie just has to get into it.
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the more i think about halliday the less i am inclined to give up. i dont want to wake up in 3 years and have the 97 phillies. and to avoid that we better hope the phils had an unbelievable draft this year. btw keep your eye on barnes, the ss from notre dame, i saw him alot this year, hes a good ballplayer.
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“how many pitches would he have needed to finish the game?”
As few as one, if he got a double play ball.
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” i dont want to wake up in 3 years and have the 97 phillies”
John – just a few weeks ago you were telling us how much you wanted to see the Phillies win another world series this year. I say this not to play “gotcha” or to mock you, but to make a point: it’s a trade off , always is, winning now means less chance of winning later. Given the current economics of the game, aside from one or two teams with virtually unlimited payrolls, you can no longer build contending teams teams that don’t have down years. This may sound obvious, but many people who comment here don’t seem to get it.
As I have said several times, I too am not sure the Phillies should pay the price for Halladay. But let’s not kid ourselves – while it’s possible that they could win without getting Halladay, they would need to either make a deal for another quality starter (still potentially costing them good prospects, and no certainty that the right starter will be available) or get very, very lucky, or both.
As for the ’97 Phillies in 3 years – meh, it’s unlikely that they will be nearly that bad, even if they give up several good prospects for Halladay. But yeah, trying to win now (and next year – a Halladay deal is as much about next year as it is about this year) will mean less chance of winning down the road. Unless you are the Yankees, that’s just how it works.
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One ancillary point – the Phillies actually do a darn good job of payroll management. Obviously fans would like them to spend more, but given the real world constraints they operate under, they are doing great in that regard. Sure they make mistakes, but they have done (overall) a very good job of avoiding really bad contracts. Sure in hindsight you wouldn’t do some of the deals that they have done, but they have avoided any truly horrible contracts (yes, the Eaton deal was pretty bad, but compare it to the train wreck of Toronto) while retaining most of their stars.
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Didn’t you hear larry? we’ve got our ace coming after the physical. I don’t know how pedro is better than lopez/bastardo/carpenter. Any one of those are fairly competent 5’s. I also wouldn’t have minded carrasco or drabek if the phils thought they were ready. Even kendrick could go 4 and 6 with a 5 spot era. I grew up a yankee/philly fan in jersey and the 2 teams i can’t stand are the sox and mets. pedro has that stigmatism all over him. If it was pedro 1999 i could get over it quicker but he is not and i doubt i will. expect an anouncement today or tomorrow.
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Oh the yanks are now a distant 2nd to the phils for me now in case anyone cares.
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Anyone know why Way was pulled so early???
Here is something to think about Happ has given up only six
runs in the last four games. Five of those runs scored on Homers. So he has given up only one run in four games otherwise. Hmmm That looks like four bad pitches in four games. I can live with that.
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Marky mark,
Eh, the Pedro/Mets thing I don’t get. It does IMO explain most of the opposition to signing him, but isn’t a legitimate reason not to.
Aside from that, Bastardo and Lopez are injured, Carrasco is not ready (and may never be given his make up issues), bringing Drabek up now and having him pitch 80-100 ML innings this year, even more if they make the post season, , on top of the minor league innings he has already pitched, would be just asking for injury. So even if he is otherwise “ready” (far from certain) that kind of risk to his career seems like a pretty dubious choice.
That leaves Carpenter. Given that they don’t have to give up anyone for Martinez, and that they know a lot more about both players than you or I, I’m going to trust their baseball judgment.
Now, it would be different if they were saying that signing Pedro obviates the need to get an ace, but they aren’t saying that. There are two different needs here – the need for a 5th starter and the need for a #1 or 2 starter. Sure getting Haladay (or someone like him) might fill both needs (by pushing Moyer into the #5 role), but since they are (correcltly, IMO) not rushing into a deal for Halladay or someone else, they need to fill the 5th starter role now. I’m not excited about Pedro, but they really don’t have much to lose.
nowheels,
I don’t really hear anyone here knocking Happ or demanding that he be included in a trade, so I’m not sure what your point is. He has been pitching very well, no one denies that. I don’t think it’s likely he will keep pitching at quite that same level – he doesn’t have the stuff for it – but there is a good chance he will be a solid #3 or maybe even a #2. That’s great. What does it have to do with the topic at hand?
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I found it interesting that he has that much control over the game. Don’t you.
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Larry, i just think that since pedro most likely won’t be an upgrade from what we already have i would like to see some guys get a shot like carpenter. Also i think lopez thinks he won’t miss a start and bastardo won’t be out long. Pedro had 5 start in 07, was worse than kendrick in08 and is rusty and won’t pitch for several weeks according to official website. I’m really hoping this isn’t a step towards trading happ but if it has to be to get halladay so be it. As far as what they have to lose how about the morale of the guys being overlooked at the upper levels?
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I read through most of the comments and people can get enamored with prospects a little too much.
I watched Drabek pitch yesterday and loved what I saw. Does that mean that for this year and next he pitches like Halladay? Probably not. You have a window to win RIGHT NOW. Utley, Howard, Rollins, Vic, Feliz, Worth, Ibanez, Hamels, Lidge, Madson, Romero ARE IN THEIR PRIME. You strike while the iron is hot. Do I hand over the entire system? NO. But I’d give up Drabek, Donald, Brown in a deal. I wouldn’t like it but you gotta do it. When you are talking about a #1 pitcher in baseball, you make the deal.
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I just read someone above you don’t rush into a Halladay deal…. that’s baloney. The Jays say they are willing to listen. You make them a good offer… and try to have this guy for the second half of July. Bury the Mets, Braves, and Fish. Give your major league guys breathing room for September. They’ve all played alot of HARD baseball for 3 seasons now… making huge pushes at the end of seasons will take a toll.
Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Moyer…. and I think Carrasco in September. WITH THIS OFFENSE is a pretty strong message to the rest of baseball.
And the best part of all of this is that I really think Amaro believes this too.
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“As far as what they have to lose how about the morale of the guys being overlooked at the upper levels?”
I just can’t see this being a factor. I think it’s unfair to our prospects to think that they will react that way. Moreover, if one of our prospects does indeed get upset (to the point of effecting his performance) because the Phillies sign Pedro … it’s probably a sign of the kind of immaturity that will keep him from succeeding in the majors anyway.
“Larry, i just think that since pedro most likely won’t be an upgrade from what we already have i would like to see some guys get a shot like carpenter.”
Why? From my perspective, if the Phillies (who, again, know a lot more about both players than you and I) think that Pedro is likely to be even a little bit better, then I want them to sign him. This really is one of the kinds of comments that really baffles me – the Phillies are in the business of putting the best major league team on the field, not in the business of given prospects a shot. Especially marginal ones like Carpenter. And that’s as it should be.
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vinlo,
Obviously none of us have inside information about negotiations – but doing a deal NOW is almost certainly going to cost more (in terms of prospects) than doing a deal a month from now. That’s how negotiations usually work. The Phillies are 4 games up – they need Halladay more for the playeoffs than the regular season. If they all of the sudden lose a bunch of games and fall out of first place, yes, there need to get Hallady immediately will increase. But as it stands now, they can afford to wait a bit.
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It should be handled the same way as the Brewers handled CC…. don’t let a bunch of teams get involved. If they want 4 prospects, give them 4.
I don’t see any other team giving up more than Drabek, Donald, and Brown/Taylor.
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Again, I preface this by saying that we aren’t talking about any pitcher. We are talking about a top 5 pitcher in baseball. And with prospects, you are rolling the dice. Look at Minnesota with Johan. What was that? They had better deals from Yanks and Sox but kept dilly dallying around and settled for probably the 4th best deal.
If the Phils are in a different situation, like being a mediocre team or having a healthy Brett Myers, than I say you hold your prospects.
The Phils are coming off a World Championship, have the best offense in baseball, have a struggling Hamels, have a no Brett Myers, and have a revolving door as your 5th starter. To me, this is a no-brainer…. since everything is geared to win now…. and the prospects are still there at the lower levels.
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myers has a good shot at coming back in september. but as far as any deal ais before with werth, vic, and ibanez. im not trading any of them. therefore taylor who is my favorite prospect, will be probably be dealt. simply because he is ready and brown is not. 4 into 3 doesnt go for 2010. sorry rickey i feel the same way.
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assuming everyone here wants halliday but wants to give up the minimum, i think the question is who can we give up without affecting the future. at least minimize the damage. taylor or brown, taylor is ready with no place to go. brown 2011. keep brown. happ youd have to be crazy. its defeating the whole purpose. carrasco or drabek. jays will want drabek but ell have halliday, but he must sign an extension. carrasco or carpenter or worley. with a rotation of halliday,hamels,happ,blanton, well need a 5th starter asuming moyer is gone. keep all 3. donald and marson. if ruiz or an infielder goes down they,ll need both since we have no else. knapp 2011 replaces blanton. conclusion. taylor,( my god i hate this),drabek, and donald or marson if need be. but taylor and drabek are more than they will get from anyone else. as i said 1 more if needed.
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Santana two walks today! Are the pitching around him. wink
Julio Rodriguez another nice outing . Does he go on the top prospect yet. rewink
Bs forgive the winks but someone will take it seriously
Hopefully some day Julio will win a game.
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i just heard the jays would want montero, hughes, and jackson from the yanks which is something they couldnt do with pasado their of and hughes the key to their pen.
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Guys – if they sign Pedro, the odds of their also doing a Halladay deal are extremely low unless the Jays’ demands go way down, which, I think, is unlikely. I think Pedro’s going to surprise everyone.
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catch do you remember pedro,s last 2 seasons? he got lit up. he couldnt get past the 5th. the phils lit him up. he,s now older, he didnt get better. i,d love to have halliday but not with any deal including happ. happ is 6-0 with a 2.90 era. he has remarkable control and pitch knowledge with an average 90 mph fastball and good,but getting bettr slider and change up. he could be rookie of the year. the idea of halliday should be a rotation of hamels,halliday,blanton,happ, and moyer. i cant believe what i,m hearing from the no nothing on t.v and radio. its like we had koufax and drysdale last year, and we cant win it without halliday. nonsense. if this pitches well but doesnt hit they will not win, but if they hit and get average pitching they,ll win. thats how powerful this lineup is. i pray charlie is telling these guys dont even worry about halliday. if they get him ok if not ok. if they let this nonsense get into their heads they,ll think like the people who forget who won last year.
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John, You don’t need to perpetually defend Happ. We all know he’s been pitching well.
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To evaluate if the Phillies should trade for Halladay comes down to “how much Halladay increases the Phillies chances to win the World Series this year and next”.
I have done a probability analysis as to his value in improving their chances over continuing with their current pitchers. This is essentially a (VOR) value over replacement player analysis.
I value Halladay’s pitching ability very highly and assumed with him over an entire regular season the Phillies will win at least 28 of the 32 games he starts. He would replace the current pitchers who’s record in the games they start at 18 wins and 14 loses. This means that Halladay would increase the number of games that the team would win over the entire season from 90 to 100. If the Phillies trade for him by July 31, he would account for 4 more win over the remaining 12 starts in 2009.
To evaluate the chances of winning the World Series, I assumed that the teams would continue to play at their current winning percentage. The Phillies are currently at a .558 percentage. I used their winning percentage to calculate the percentage of winning the first round of the playoff, the percentage of winning the National League Championship and the percentage of winning the World Series both with and without Halladay.
These results are without Halladay:
Winning the First Round of the Playoff 50.9%
Winning the National League Championship 22.7%
Winning the World Series 9.5%
These results are with Halladay:
Winning the First Round of the Playoff 53.4%
Winning the National League Championship 24.4%
Winning the World Series 10.4%
So with Halladay, he gives the Phillies less than a 1% increase in their chances of winning the World Series both this year and next. For this, the Phillies are willing to trade away talent that will give them the possibility that they will be good for 7 to 10 years and have a 8 to 9% chance in each of those years of winning a World Series. If the Phillies are smart they will not trade the boatload of talent to the Blue Jays for Halladay
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Anthony Gose and Tim Beckham are putting up very very similiar numbers in their first years in pro ball with Beckham with more power and Gose with more speed. Beckham’s position on the diamond is more valuable. Very good year for Gose to be putting up the same numbers as the #1 pick last year.
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Are you kidding? We don’t have to give up anyone from the major league roster for one of the best pitchers in baseball? I vote yes. Let’s have two more great years!
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I voted no, but now that I’m rethinking it, I think that’s a good deal for us. The only thing about it that makes me hesitate slightly is the inclusion of Marson, but I think I’d go ahead and do that.
I would imagine that the Jays would ask for slightly more. I’ve been thinking we’d have to give them Knapp/Drabek/Happ/Carrasco (pick two), Taylor or Brown, Marson and/or Donald, and Savery/Worley. Not much more really, but I would think they’d want at least one pitcher closer to major league ready than Drabek.
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