411 thoughts on “Sell the farm, stand pat, or something in between?”

1. stand pat.

   We won last year. No reason to bet a strengthening farm on not a sure thing. We could have a 2011 or 2012 rotation of:

   1-Hamels
   2-Drabek
   3-Happ
   4-Carrasco
   5-Knapp

   Our position players would be
   1B-Howard??
   2B-Utley
   SS-Donald
   3B-Travis Mattair
   LF-Michael Taylor
   CF-Shane Victorino
   RF-Dominic Brown
   C-Travis D’arnaud

   That’s the makings of a pretty good team as well as one that isn’t overly expensive except for hamels in 2012 as well as Utley and Howard.

   If you try to do too much buying then you’ll end up like the yankees or Mets with little or no prospects to develop and/or trade for.

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2. Did you really put Travis Mattair in the starting lineup for a Phillies team in 3-4 years?

   That’s a lot of wishcasting.

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3. Minor trades is what I voted for. The guy I would like is Gil Meche or someone like him, so it’s kind of in between.

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4. First Ruben has to ask how did I get here.
   1. The worse bench in History.
   2. What is wrong with Ruiz and do I stick with him?
   3. Is my pitching coach doing the job?
   4. Who is responsible for obvious incredibly bad decisions
   e.g Hamels in ST,Parks blackmail response, playing Raul
   for over a week when he was clearly hurting. etc
   5. Is there trouble between Rollins and the manager or is it
   physical? temp or not.
   6. Is youth the answer?

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5. I voted for minor trades as well. But i think it is a combination of either standing pat or making the small moves. One pitcher, even if it is Roy Halladay, isn’t going to completely change this team around. They still have a weak bench, a tired half a bullpen, a AAAA other half, and underperforming core (Jimmy) with injuries thrown in. A few small moves adding a bench guy, a better reliever, maybe even a bit bigger splash in Meche for one of our better prospects (not untouchables) and this team could get the shake up it needs without killing our future. We’re majorly under performing, and i think with a bit of cage rattling the second half could be much better. The whole NL is flawed and even without a major move we have a pretty good chance to make it back, so why make the big splash when its not enough to put us over the top anyway?

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6. Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci has researched the effect increases of 30 innings or more has on pitchers 25 or younger. There were 24 pitchers in that category the previous three seasons. Sixteen of those pitchers suffered injuries the following season. Seven had worse ERAs, an increase of more than a run.

   That is 23 of 24 pitchers who struggled or suffered injuries.

   This from the Phillies . Why Verducci? This should be common knowledge by now. Just like hitters in general dont mature until 25 (powerwise). And this backs up my view from the beginning that they screwed up with Hamel right out of ST.
   NOW WHAT?

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7. I am greedy.

   I want to see the Phillies in contention every year, not just this year and next. If they play their cards right, my feeling is that, overall, this will be the best crop of young players they have had since the group that came up in the early 70s. Perhaps, the hitters won’t be as good as the Utley/Howard group, but, on the whole, there will be a nice balance of hitting and pitching and there will be some truly outstanding guys (Taylor, Drabek, Knapp).

   While we are sitting panicing, think about a few things. First, I know the major league pitching looks horrible but, truly, I think, to a major extent, it’s going to come back around, both in the pen and the rotation. Second, when your impulse says buy, think of the Red Sox. Now, I know that’s going to prompt a huge e-mail exchange about how the Sox have traded prospects. They have traded some prospects to get players like Jason Bay, but they have not traded their very best prospects. And on some occasions they have traded young players for young players – we all know that’s not the type of trade we’re worried about – those are value-for-value trades, not value for need trades that keep us up all night worrying. They want the Dustin Pedroias, Jon Lesters and Jonathan Papelbons of the world pitching for their team, not for some other team so they can get a serviceable number 3 in the rotation. Finally, a word to the wise Phillies, the time to stockpile talent is the off-season. Every year, teams deplete their talent stockpiles by waiting until they are desperate to make trades – that is the way to hurt your team, not build it.

   Still, I know the Phils have to do something. I’m okay with them trading top 10 talent, but they have to stay away from the guys who could be long-term studs. They’ve got enough decent talent to build depth – that depth may take them farther than we think.

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8. i vote for a gil meche type deal. it would give us a rotation of hamels, blanton happ meche. heres where i disagree with the seemingly overwheling stats. hitting is our problem. specifically ibanez being out werth not in the leadoff position. and the never ending saga of rollins. i give jimmy til the break in the 8th spot. if no improvement he goes to lhv. and donald plays. i know everyone criticizes donald but i ask the critics one simple question what is your solution? with this plan we keep our minor leagers fix the hitting problem and have a staff that imo can win. we have to hit to win.

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9. In my world Cairo and Marson are here tomorrow. Mayberry stays.

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10. Unless it a halladay or haren type stay pat , keep this kids and develop them . what I am trying to say is maybe sacrifice this season to get some cap relief for next year , and hopefully we can sign howard with the saving by having some young talent. like taylor for werth 3milliom saved, donald for felix 5 million, drabek for myers 12 million, and so on.

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11. John think of what you are saying rollins is a allstar player, having a bad year, and you give him no respect , he deserves to have the chance to get out of the slump, plus he is a expectional fielder, donald would be under unbelievalbe pressure to replace him. Jimmy shouldn’t be leading off, but batting sixth or fifth,

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12. Cairo isn’t an upgrade for anyone. Make a move for Meche type, who isn’t exactly going to come cheap, but shouldn’t cost a Taylor/Brown/Drabek/Knapp.

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13. my dead grandmother is an upgrade on Bruntlett and you know it. He screwed up a double play ball in the only recent win beside swinging at air. Coste too is about useless and you know that too.

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14. mikemike
    God knows last year I knocked Feliz but this year he has stopped worring about the HR and in better health if he keeps it up I might resign him for a year.

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15. I voted for the last option, but I’d trade top prospects for a stud player. Otherwise, I’d make moderate trades and patch holes from within.

    It’s funny the difference a year (and a World Series win) makes – the Phillies are in first place in a weak division in July. Last year, the fans would be pretty pleased with that situation. Granted, this team has a lot of holes – the bullpen and bench are atrocious, and the starters have been lousy – although a post WS season hangover isn’t that unusual with a rotation, and I was predicting a letdown year from Hamels since they won. (I’ll take a letdown year in exchange for a WS any day)

    – Jeff

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16. Love watching the talent develop in the minors, but I’m with PP – Last October was a great feeling, as I was too young to enjoy the 1980 team and barely remember the sixers in 1983. Win again, prove the experts wrong – this could turn out to betheir best era ever.

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17. I voted for the last option…but honestly, I’d be willing to sell the farm for an Ace. And that’s the key, it needs to be an Ace. A 1a type guy, not a 1b, and I just don’t think that trades out there – so best case becomes patching some holes with mid level prospects.

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18. There is no need for cap relief , because there is no cap.

    Donald did not hit at the AAA level, which is more advanced than the AA level. Then he has spent the last couple of months , or so, injured and not playing. Yet , somehow , he will step in cold, and excel at the MLB level. And nobody ever said he had the range , and all that, to be an above average MLB ShortStop. He might be all right at 2B, But that position is filled. That kind of junk will only Wow Angelo Cataldi.

    The proper remedy is to bat Rollins 8th until he starts to hit.
    If he starts to hit, move him to 5th, 6th , or 7th. If he does not start to hit, then stand pat. If he does , then they can make an intermediate range trade, provided some of the starters and relievers also start to come around.

    As far as the constant tub-thumping to unload Bruntlett and Coste. All the past offseason , it was constantly trumpeted that the removal of these 2 was a foregone conclusion. I identified this as incorrect, and the professsionals agreed with me. IN case anyone was paying attention, Miguel Cairo has already been in MLB this season. He did not hit, as Bruntlett has not hit much, because players who get an at bat a week ,or so, will not hit, because they can not develop the proper timing and rythm to hit much. No Utility Infielders hit much. Coste hits as well as alot of back-up catchers, look around. I would be all right with moving him (maybe replacing him on roster with Cairo as another back-up infielder) because the now have Bako. Bako is good, because he provides good defense. Defense is what matters for a catcher, there is nothing wrong with Ruiz. There is no need for a raw rookie at catcher, at this time.
    Adequate defense is also what matters for reserve Infielders, all players make errors from time to time. Adequate defense is what matters for reserve Infielders and Catchers, Offensive prowess should be strived for , but not at the expense of adequate defense.

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19. The Phils got away with a lot last year,early Myers,Eaton,So,etc with the aid of Omar. I quess it was only natural to think the detail didnt matter this year. While I have little respect for Marlins management,they are not Omar and they have a farm system and unlike the Phils will use it without a crisis. Its not too late but the one thing that will not work is the status quo.

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20. If they trade top prospects, they need top talent in return. Phils’ history has shown they trade very good players for a .500 pitcher who may or may not help us or even be with us a year later. We don’t need another .500 pitcher. If that’s all they’re after, we should bring up the young kids and see what they can do. I’d bet they’d be at least .500 this year and much better next. Of course the Phils mgmt would have to get over the “we can’t play inexperienced players on our team unless we have to” mindset.

    In answer to the question at hand…if we can get Halliday, sell the farm. If not, I choose option 3.

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21. There is no need to re-sign Feliz, as all they have to do is exercise his option.

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22. Marfis You are one of the best here but neither Coste or Bruntlett’s defense is adequate. Do you want to say Marson is not a better catcher than Coste. At best a toss up. Bruntlett flat out stinks. Mayberry is a much better replacement in the outfield. Cairo only had 9 ab but another infielder is fine.
    What is so good about this bench that it has you defending it
    I dont know what to do about Rollins but the idea of he,Ruiz and the pitcher is very unexciting.

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23. This team is pretty loaded in the minors, especially the upper minors. I don’t necessary think they have to trade Drabek or Taylor in order to pull off getting another good starter. Cliff Lee to me is a good starter who has had an excellent past year and half. That does not warrant several A level prospects in a deal. An offer of Mayberry, Carassco, Bastardo, and a guy like Stutes should get it done for Lee. A MLB ready power hitting outfielder, two mid rotations guys and a bullpen guy in Stutes should be more than enough for Lee. The thing is even if we dealt those players we still have Taylor, Drabek, Savery, Flande etc in the wings.

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24. To finish my thought for some reason it posted before I did

    Since we would still have the Drabek’s, Taylors, Marson’s, Savery’s, Worley’s of the world I don’t see it as selling the farm. I see it as using resources of which we have alot of. (I could 9 pitching prospects in AA and AAA and another 4-6 position players) to fill the major league roster. If we keep everything we have by this time next year we are going to be holding back alot of top quality talent

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25. Bench –experience counts, breaking up a younger players progress for sporadic playing time in MLB can badkfire. Leave them in minors until their season is over. In about 60 days they can bring in some. If they were buried standings wise they could radically change things. Marson has not excelled at AAA as yet, and there is no proof he could be a long term handler of the pitching staff, in this situation. Regardless , the bench will not determine much vis-a-vis this outcome. The starting Line-up, The Starters, and key relievers are also in a spiral right now. But the standings say they have a chance to salvage this season. I don’t see them inserting alot of rookies and inexperienced players, at this juncture.

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26. James makes a persuasive argument, but I’m nonetheless unwilling to make that deal for Cliff Lee. A few posters have mentioned it above, and I agree: I’m only surrendering Drabek in a deal that nets me Halladay. Barring that, I focus on someone like Gil Meche* unless the price for Lee drops precipitously (which it won’t).

    *Incidentally, Meche would cost us Michael Taylor at least, but it would still be worth exploring. No one’s absolutely untouchable, though as I said above, I only make Drabek available for Roy Halladay.

    The reason I don’t overpay for Lee is that there are less expensive (in prospects) options available in the offseason. John Lackey, Rich Harden, and Erik Bedard are free agents, and Brandon Webb is a name that may be available via trade (along with Jake Peavy, assuming he isn’t dealt at the deadline this July). As much as it may suck to seemingly punt on this year, I’d rather: (A) gamble that we can win a weak division in 2009 and then really gear up for 2010, than (B) gut the farm for Cliff Lee and be up the creek without a paddle after 2010 (with, say, Drabek, Taylor, and Worley all gone, and Lee a free agent).

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27. I agree with most of you premises. I would trade our elite prospects for a controllable top guy (Lee, Oswalt, Halladay). This is a very much win now everyday 8, with most all of the core in through 2011. They need to be aggressive IMO to acquire a difference making pitcher that could fit into that time frame

    I would even be aggressive for Bedard, a pure rental, but think we could pull that off without any of the Carrasco/Knapp/Drabek/Brown/Taylor

    It would be a shame to see this excellent everday 8 squad have a great season wasted due to inferior SP, with many trade chips on hand to give them a boost

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28. Note: Cliff Lee has 2 years left on contract, however, if he is traded this season, he has the right to demand a trade in the offseason.

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29. And I don’t see how anyone could possibly say “adding a top pitcher won’t even make a difference.”

    I mean look at the NL. The Cubs are down. The Dodgers are very arguably less talented this year (upgraded with Hudson, but lost playoff ace Lowe and have had bullpen injuries) than last year’s incarnation that the Phils faced. Brewers are down. NL East competition is not much better

    Adding a talented SP like Lee, Bedard or even Meche would make a HUGE difference in an extremely wide open NL IMO

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30. Marfis I saw that throwaway line in a Stark piece, but I have never ever heard anything like that before in any contract. How does that mechanism work?

    Further, there is a difference between “having the right to demand a trade” (a la Sheldon Brown), and having the contractual right to force your employer to trade you in the offseason for the best offer (something I have never heard of)

    I would like to see more info about that supposed right

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31. Option 3, small changes is the only one that makes sense for me. I don’t want to win now and then have teams that don’t even contend for the next 10 years. I would rather be in contention every year and actually win every now and then.

    The thought of watching Taylor put up hall of fame numbers for some other team for 10 years while our possible victory this year fades from memory is something that I don’t look forward to (don’t forget Ryne Sandberg). Would you trade Utley to (supposedly) increase your chances of winning this year? Taylor has better minor league numbers than Utley ever had in the minors.

    Sit back, draft wisely, develop your players and enjoy being one of the contending teams. In the end, luck largely determines which of the contending teams ultimately wins the world series.

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32. Alright, I voted to sell the farm. But for me that means Meche, not Halladay/Lee. Say it costs us Carrasco & Marson or Donald. I can live with that, follow that up with getting some BP help by bringing up Kyle Drabek August 1st (this kids stuff in the BP are major league ready right now). Also, trade Mayberry for a decent BP pitcher, think 6/7th inning guy.

    Here is how it would pan out, and I’m estimating stats for the remainder of the season (not including first half)

    Starting 5

    Hamels – 3.5 era
    Meche – 3.9 era
    Blanton – 4.3 era
    Happ – 4.2 era
    Moyer – 4.5 era

    BP

    Lidge – 3.7 era (it’s hopeful)
    Madson – 2.4 era
    JC – 3.8 era
    Drabek – 4.2 era
    New Pickup – 4.2 era

    The other side of this, and I know people will disagree with me here… but bring up Taylor (20% of games) and platoon him with Werth (80% of games) and alternate who would be our big power R bat off the bench to replace mayberry.

    In terms of the batting order, another big change. Those of you who want to cut Rollins, you’re over reacting. That said, I move him down to the 7th spot, his defense will turn around and you have to hope so does his bat, it would make a huge difference to this teams asiprations should he do so. So here goes.

    1. Vic
    2. Taylor/Werth
    3. Utley
    4. Howard
    5. Ibanez
    6. Feliz
    7. Rollins
    8. Ruiz

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33. Cliff Lee contract- only seen that written somewhere as well. I seem to remember the concept of trades being forced in the past. I would think it could be done in MLB , moreso than in the NFL or other Pro Leagues, because the MLB Players Association has press-ganged alot of contractual possibiliies for their members over the years. If it exists , as stated, it would have to be a clause written into Cliff Lee’s contract, and agreed upon.

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34. The encouraging thing is that even if we did make a blockbuster deal for a contollable top pitcher like say Oswalt (I know he’s not available now, but for argument’s sake), it wouldn’t even be selling the farm…….have to painfully give up Taylor? Well they’d still have Brown and only one OF spot open in 2011. Have to give up 21 year old fireballer Drabek? Probably still have 22 year old Carrasco who has a mid 3s FIP in AAA with a K an inning

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35. I vote for going after the best starter you can get without giving up the Big 3. They are the foundation of the team until 2016-2017. If they can’t work something out without getting fleeced, bring up Carpenter and Carrasco and roll the dice.

    I would give up something like Brown, Carrasco, Marson, Savery for a #1, but that probably would not do it. Agree with PP they would want 2 of our Big 3.

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36. Win Now, Win Next Year and The Year After! Trade anyone but Drabek or Taylor. They are producing now and may even be capable of helping out this year. Trade anyone else and provide a staff that can win series victories. Winning is contagious and permeates through your entire organization creating a mindset amongst players at all levels that they are better which leads to improved play. Keep the winning going, it is like magic serum.
    On an aside: Taylors statistics are nothing short of Phenominal. He is in the top ten of every meaningful offensive category and leading many. Runs, Hits, RBIs, AVE, SLG, OBP, OPS, and Stolen Bases. Who, in any league is duplicating these type numbers? 1 error and 6 assists.

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37. I vote to not sell the farm and stand pat. Let’s put aside the fact the phillies have put together an exciting group of prospects down on the farm.

    The basis of last years phillies team was good pitching and a strong, rested bullpen. Even when things weren’t going well, they could still hang their hats on pitching. Check the numbers, they were at or near the top of several pitching categories throughout the year. Which is amazing considering the fact they started Eaton half the year and Myers was largely ineffective for 3 months. They only needed a piece or two (Blanton, Eyre, Madson’s resurgence) to push them over the top.

    Fast forward to this years team and it’s very clear that they are not at the same level pitching-wise as last years team. The bulk of their good arms are out of gas. Alot of the pitching injuries and general malaise is probably attributable to all the innings pitched last year (playoffs) and this year (starters can’t go 6). Sprinkle in the fact they’ve added over the hill and over matched arms (park, walker, taschner). Adding even a Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee won’t eliminate these problems. Then we’ll spend a decade lamenting the fact we gave up electic talent for what?

    I’d like to take a Red Sox mentality for once. Keep the Taylors, Browns, and Drabeks…it is through these guys the phillies can be good and STAY good for years to come.

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38. I voted minor changes but was really somewhere in between there and sell the farm. But I have a dif. oppinion of “sell the farm” then PP. Have to admit what he suggested for a #1 scared the heck out of me; drabek-taylor-2 other top 10. I thought we could get an ace like lee for carrasco, brown, donald, marson. This would hurt but i could live w/ it since I like taylor better than brown and drabek over carrasco. If it takes w/pp proposed than i want a meche/beddard type. Would carrasco, flande, savery, donald get it done or would we still need one of taylor/brown in there?

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39. It’s no secret the giants want power, we have it. If we can weight a few more weeks werth will have 20 hr’s and we’ll know if ibanez is 100%. If we traded werth, brown, carrasco, bastardo(if healthy) and either marson or donald or savery (one of these last 3) we might get cain. If you twisted my arm I’d probably include all 3. If not i would trade donald, marson and savery to the sox for buckholtz. if dicek is back and smoltz doing well they may consider this.

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40. It probably doesn’t belong in this thread, but some pretty harsh quotes from Roadcap in this article –

    http://readingeagle.com/article.aspx?id=146489

    I wonder if his style wears at all on the young guys, or keeps them on their toes? I guess it could go either way.

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41. Marfis I know there is no cap. but they have a limit to spend.That is the way I should have said it, so some minor league talent will give them the money to go after top pitcher next year, felix is really better than I thought but we should give donald a chance. and myers should go and use that money plus jenkins and eatons money for a top starter.

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42. I voted for minor trades. A few days ago I would have voted for some version of sell the farm, but I now think that that would not be enough – and there would be nothing worse than trading away several of our good prospects and not getting a good shot at another title in return.

    John is (surprise) actually somewhat right about one thing – offense HAS been a problem lately (though I really wish he would stop bringing up his demented fantasy of replacing a slumping all star in mid season with a slumping, injured, mediocre prospect). That should largely resolve itself, though, upon the return of Ibanez. But while a big trade might largely fix the starting rotation (with significant residual concern about Hamels), I’m inclined to think that the problem with the relievers isn’t fixable this year. And really that’s the biggest reason for the recent slide. With the Phillies’ offense, they can afford mediocre to poor starting pitching – but only if the releivers pick up the slack. That hasn’t been happening. Heck, if the stats you are quoting regarding added wins from releivers are at all valid, we are talking about 12 fewer wins over the course of the season. That’s huge – the difference between winning the division and finishing well out of the playoffs.

    What concerns me a bit going forward though is that by the time the current crop of promising startering pitchers is ready, the offense may be starting to decline due to age. Two years from now Howard will be 31, Utley will be 32, and Rollins 32. Not ancient, but generally hitters lose at least a little bit at that point of their careers. Moreover, Howard is the type of hitter/has the type off body that doesn’t age well, and, while I’m not ready to write off Rollins yet, obviously there is some concern there as well. Brown and Taylor are nice prospects, but not IMO necessarily destined to be the all stars some people here are projecting, and besides they will be replacing 2 good hitters in Inbanez and Werth.

    Which is a long winded way of saying that, if I thought the addition of, say, Lee, would be enough to push them over the top, I would say go fo it, as the window of opportunity may be closing. But I don’t think it would. So get one or two more reasonably priced players, hope for lightning in a bottle this year, and hope that our current core ages gracefully over the next couple of years as we add some prospects.

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43. Marfis says
    As far as the constant tub-thumping to unload Bruntlett and Coste. All the past offseason , it was constantly trumpeted that the removal of these 2 was a foregone conclusion. I identified this as incorrect, and the professsionals agreed with me.
    So what. Thes “Professionals” have failed to act that makes it right? The fact that you are plugged into their inaction is not a badge. I hate to argue with you. But Its not like Bruntlett didnt stink the last half of last year or Coste has gotten more mobile this year. Marson hit almost .300 in June . If you dont like young guys make trades for people who can play baseball. Would Shirrel help? Is he gettable. I thinks so. I will look over subs and get back to you with a list of guys who can REALLY field and are not looking up at the Mendoza line.

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44. Larry guys now a days don’t fade at 31 or 32, like years ago. look at howard he lost weight to get into better shape, years ago they didn’t have the fitness these guys have, that’s why you see moyer johnson, smoltz, still around in there fortys, and guy like franco who still was hitting after 40 so I don’t buy that argument. And can’t understand how you can say taylor isn’t a kid who could become a allstar?

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45. If Lee is the best we can get, I vote no on selling the farm and vote for tweaking things a bit, instead. He has a really good ERA, especially for the American League, but he is another lefthander, he has allowed more hits than innings pitched this year and gives up almost as many fly balls as ground balls. He has had better years, obviously, but at this point he doesn’t look like Sandy Koufax to me. It is interesting that the ace of our staff right now is a product of our farm system. I am not talking about Hamels, but about JA Happ, who is 5-0 with an ERA of 3.00. We definitely need to keep our best young pitching talent. I wouldn’t give up more than three good prospects for Lee and would not include Drabek in any deal.

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46. don’t sell out the pharm on a longshot. we’ve got a ton of great talent in the wings, and we can’t mortgage the future on maybe.

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47. OK. Lots to think about.
    Underperforming and untradeable players ( Hamels, Moyer,
    Rollins, Lidge and now Madson) are the source of team’s problems. Injuries cost us an inconsistent Myers but we had 2 ST competitors for the rotation ( Carrasco and Kendrick ) available but we haven’t seen them yet. Getting a healthy Ibanez back will be the key to the 2nd half.

    Having so much depth in minor league pitching (at 4 levels) gives Ruben flexibility to trade pitching for pitching. I can see Savery, Stutes or Worley (all at AA) or Carpenter, Carrasco (at AAA ) being packaged with someone (other than Knapp) at lower levels to get a solid major league starter. Blanton wasn’t considered anything better than a #3/4 starter but right now he’s probably our #2.

    As for the bench I think I’d live with what we got or make minor moves. In 1984 the Phillies traded Willie Hernandez and Dave Bergman for John Wockenfuss and Glenn Wilson.
    Although Wilson was the prime target ,Wockenfuss was coveted for his versatility off the bench. Wilson was average at best; Wockenfuss sucked and was released after 2 years. Hernandez won the AL Cy Young award as he led the Tigers to a World Championship.
    The point is: don’t go nuts in trying to get that 25th man.
    Bring up a talented non-prospect type like Mahar from Reading or Tracy fron Lehigh. You might get lucky.

    More thoughts later.

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48. SIFPA
    Right on I have been a Happ fan since he was in Reading (check his stats). He is the guy who will protect the Plate.

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49. I voted for a mid-level trade. I’d like to think that at this point, the team can really only get better. Rollins can’t hit any worse, Ibanez will be back soon, the bullpen couldn’t get any worse, and Hamels always gets better as the year progresses.

    Basically, this team will get better simply because it can’t get worse… and its not like any other team is exactly running away with the division.

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50. Rick
    You might be able to live with this bench but not with Rollins slumping and Ruiz reverting.

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51. I voted for “sell the farm” which for me starts and ends at Roy Halladay. If you can pry Haren or Oswalt, that works too. I don’t want Cliff Lee. He ranks 65th this decade in QS% and has had 1 good year and 1 great year. He’s not a #1a, he’s another LH. Those three are the only choices for me, with Roy way ahead of the other two.

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52. “Larry guys now a days don’t fade at 31 or 32, like years ago. look at howard he lost weight to get into better shape, years ago they didn’t have the fitness these guys have, that’s why you see moyer johnson, smoltz, still around in there fortys,”

    You’re not ENTIRELY wrong here. Modern conditioning does make a difference. But …

    (1) You list a bunch of players who continue to produce into their forties; I could produce a longer list of contemporary players who fade in their early thirties. Sure, there is a chance they won’t decline – and I’m not saying that their performance is likely to drop off a cliff (except maybe Howard) – but CHANCES ARE their will be a decline.
    (2) Notice that all 3 players on your list are pitchers? Their aging pattern is different than hitters – much different. Pitchers (often) mature later and have peaks in their 30s. Most hitters peak in their late 20s. Ibanez is not only an exception, but is an almost off-the-charts exception.
    (3) Regarding Howard in particular, his weight loss is encouraging, but look at his comps – several players who just fell off a cliff in their early 30s. And not just players from the days before modern conditioning – see, e.g., Mo Vaughn. It isn’t by any means CERTAIN that Howard will go the same route, but it is a risk. And because of that risk, I frankly hope that the Phillies don’t give him the kind of contract he is looking for to keep him past 2011.

    “And can’t understand how you can say taylor isn’t a kid who could become a allstar?”

    I’m not saying he can’t become an all star – only (a) he isn’t guarenteed to become one, (b) he is replacing a guy who, while not an all star, is pretty darn close to one.

    To elaborate a bit on (a) you still have a bunch of people here who seem to believe that Taylor’s numbers in AA represent what he is going to do in the majors. And … that’s possible. It just isn’t likely. Most players who hit like that in AA, while most do become quality major league regulars, don’t hit as well in the majors. Someone brought up Utley; he is an exception, has hit much better in the majors than people projected from his minor league stats. I could list dozens of players who didn’t. And hTaylor is 23, not ancient for AA by any means, but a little old for AA for a player projected to be an all star.

    Just eyeballing it – I would expect that in his best years Taylor will hit a little over .300, OBP around .360, and slug about .500, with 25-30 HR. Which is darn good, maybe even all-star caliber, but not a huge upgrade over what we have now. Could he do better than that? Yes. He could also do worse. Look at Marlon Byrd.

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53. I would make any combination of smaller deals to improve the team but you can’t mortgage the farm. However, please don’t overvalue our prospects and assume that Donald will seemlessly replace Feliz or that Taylor can easily replace Werth. The major leagues is filled with prospects that never performed well in the big leagues. The 1975 Red Sox are the only team I can think of that won with two rookies. Its very hard to win with inexperienced kids in any pro sport. While I selected small trades, I would consider a blockbuster if a legit 1 or 2 was included but I’m sorry, Cliff Lee is not on that list for me. Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, and Matt Cain are guys you would have to move on if you could. I still think the Phils will talk to Seattle when Bedard comes back and I have a hunch that a deal could get done on Bedard depending on what Seattle wants. He’s a bit of a flake but everyone knows it and that could hold the price down to something like Carenter, Kendrick and Donald which I’d do in a second.

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54. These decisions are very tough and I don’t envy Ruben at all. I think part of the problem is we all want to keep the prospects that we talk about and read about every day (they seem almost like family to me). Obviously, we can’t keep every prospect discussed here since there wouldn’t be room for all of them. With that being said, I am not in favor of selling the farm and certainly not for Cliff Lee. Look back at his #’s before last season and you will see what you might get. I would be willing to give up a lot (Brown, Carrasco, Bastardo, Donald, maybe even Drabek) only for Halladay, Haren or Cain. Otherwise, much lower tier package for Meche. Beyond that, we have a WS (thank god) so let’s not give up the next few years for this year when we have a team that looks dead in the water right now. Adding one good starter may not be enough anyway. I agree (as someone else posted) the NL is not too strong so maybe we stay with what we have and take our chances that we can turn it around. Minor deals–add a RP and some bench help– would be best. DO NOT GIVE UP TAYLOR (now hitting .350 with 15HR, 14 SB). I know I have probably contradicted myself throughout this post which just tells you how torn I am.

    PS Thanks to the creator of this site. I just discovered it about a month ago and am in heaven. I have been religiously following the system for a number of years, but this site takes it to a whole new level.

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55. Halliday, Haren, or Cain. Those three I would sell the farm for. Other than that, I chose Option 3.

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56. Interesting – currently the Phillies project to have 28 blown saves this season – versus 15 last year. That’s 13 wins – almost the same as what we get using WXRL.

    That’s the big difference this year IMO. That’s why this just isn’t the Phillies’ year, unless they can somehow find a way to fix that problem.

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57. Sell the farm. This year and next year is our window at the big league level. It’s all about making the playoffs. Also, our division is weak so adding one solid arm would make a huge difference. It would also help our bullpen because presumably the good starter we trade for would pitch deeper into games.

    Like others I would trade Drabek for a very limited group of starters, and not for Cliff Lee. While I love Taylor, I would much rather trade him and go deep into the playoffs than not trade him and fizzle.

    The Red Sox traded Hanley Ramirez, their best prospect, for Josh Beckett. The difference between us and them is that they have a much deeper system so they can trade a few high profile guys and still have a strong system, whereas ours would significantly weaken with a trade of Taylor/Drabek/Brown. If we keep having drafts like last year, however, we will soon get to the same place. So pony up and sign Colvin, Singleton, Susac, and Hudson!

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58. Right now at least, this team is too fundamentally flawed to justify moving *any* top 10 (Drabek, Brown, Taylor, Carrasco, Savery, Knapp, Marson, D’Arnaud, Donald, Worley) prospects.

    Unless Hamels, Lidge and Rollins perform much closer to their established norms, the 2009 Phillies aren’t going to win. There are four weeks left until the deadline; were I Amaro, I would wait at least for three weeks to see if those three guys start to come around. If they don’t, then we should stand pat. If they do, then see where the market is on July 25 or so.

    That isn’t to rule out smaller trades of lesser prospects to improve the bench or bullpen. But there’s no reason to think that the 2010 or 2011 teams won’t be at least as well positioned to go for a second trophy. A bad deal this year could hurt the organization for a long time.

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59. Boston
    Are not the Sox looking for a SS. You could of used a better example.

    As far as Ruben he dug this hole. No one else. Raul was great . Jaramillo begot Taschner was a mistake he still won’t admit and it is hurting. Koplove could be here or someone . He has in my eye ignored the little things and maybe left them up to other people.
    I dont think it is out of the question to replace the pitching coach.who isnt getting the job done. Unpopular I know but…

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60. Drabek is the one guy in the entire system that I absolutely would not trade under any circumstances, for any player.

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61. Okay, someone off topic, sorry, but related to my exchange with mike. Here are Howard’s best statistical comps through age 28:

    Cecil Fielder – somewhat benefitted from modern conditioning, performance fell off a cliff in early 30s.
    Norm Cash – no benefit from modern conditioning, played well into mid/late 30s.
    Tony Clark – benefitted from modern conditioning, only one good year past age 29.
    Mo Vaughn – somewhat benefitted from modern conditioning, fell off a cliff in early 30s.
    Carlos Delgado – benefitted from modern conditioning, playing well in mid 30s but some decline.
    McGriff – somewhat benefitted from modern conditioning, played well in his 30s but definite decline. Peaked in early/mid 20s.
    Ryan Klesko – benefitted from modern conditioning, fell off a cliff in early 30s.
    Richie Sexton – benefitted from modern conditioning, fell off a cliff in early 30s.
    Jason Bay – benefitted from modern conditioning, only 30 now. Still going strong, but apparently peaked in mid20s.

    The weight loss significantly increases the chance he goes the Cash/Delgado/McGriff route, but I wouldn’t give him a long term contract at the kind of salary he wants given the risk of a Fielder/Vaughn decline.

    And yes, he is better than some of those guys. It’s the pattern that concerns me.

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62. Marlon Byrd. Remember the numbers he put up in the Minors?

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63. I voted for minor changes. We’re going to hit enough to stay in the race and it may only take 85-88 wins to win the division. If you can improve the team even slightly without touching the top 10-15 prospects, it’s worth it. Let’s not forget we’ve been playing teams that are better than us for almost an entire month now. We’re about to get into the soft part of the schedule. Our rotation certainly isn’t good, but it’s serviceable against the NL.

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64. Trading Kyle Drabek is crazy, and so is trading Brown/Taylor.

    A realistic guy to go after would be Gil Meche. YOud probably only have to trade Carrasco, a Marson/Donald type, and a few other guys not in the top 10.

    Id take Dan Haren over Cliff Lee, but they said theyd have to get a deal like the one they gave up to get him. That said, if he could be gotten without giving up Drabek and keeping one of Brown/Taylor and maybe moving Shane Victorino I would do that in a heartbeat. Haren is a top 2 or 3 pitcher in the NL. Hamels has reallly disappodinted this year and he needs someone to take the pressure off his shoulders.

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65. nowheels, the point I was countering was that the Sox do not trade their best prospects. They will trade their best prospects, as they showed by trading Hanley.

    No, the Sox are not looking for a SS. Nick Green has the 4th highest OPS among starting AL shortstops. Jed Lowrie, when he’s healthy, is their SS of the future.

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66. New plan: trade Drabek, sign this guy: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4302422

    Anyone else see him pitch at the WBC? Sick stuff.

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67. I would trade Savery if someone thinks pitcher wins are valuable. Otherwise, I’m with dajafi.

    Boston Phan — What about trading Taylor and not making the playoffs (or fizzling)? You have to consider both possibilities, and with the current issues the team has, I don’t think that’s a risk I want to take.

    Larry M — For what it’s worth, BP’s peak translation (which projects a minor league player’s current stats into a major league equivalent in his prime) for Taylor has him at .323/.382/.624/1.006 with 21 HR and 63 in 279 ABs (roughly half a season – so 42(!) HR in a full season). Take that with as many grains of salt as you choose, but I for one would like to take the chance he could be great for us and not someone else.

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68. They should pick up a bullpen arm or two to bolster the staff there. Guys that it wouldnt take a big prospect for, but who can contribute to the cause respectably.

    They need a RH bench player who is used to that role. Mayberry needs to play more than a bench player does.

    Jamie Moyer honestly should be released. I mean, he stinks this season. They made a major mistake bringing him back on that deal. Hes a 5th starter that theyre paying and relying on to be a 2nd or 3rd starter. They should have traded for Jason Marquis when he was available to hold the staff over until the deadline. Now they need at least one good starter. Someone to replace Myers and someone to replace Moyer.

    Heres the thing: there arent many FA’s out there in terms of SP. They may have to resign Brett Myers. Its clear that Bastardo is a Reliever. He could (and should) replace JC Romero – who should be suspended again and traded for his actions. Especially since he has been useless since “coming back clean.”

    They had better get to it. I dont think they can wait much longer because they have 3 or 4 moves that they need to make. Theyll still get back to the postseason, but they need ammo to burn.

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69. nowheels,

    The percentage of the Phillies current problems that can be blamed on Amaro is probably (much) less than 10%, maybe a little (only a little) more if you want to blame him for Hamels. Amaro is not responsible for:

    Rollins’ poor performance, Madson’s blown saves, Myers’ injury, Moyer’s poor performance, Lidge’s poor performance.

    That’s why the Phillies are having problems. Hamels? I don’t buy that his current problems have anything to do with not staying in XST. They have everything to do with his number of IP last year.

    Taschner and the somewhat underperforming bench? You can give Amaro some blame for that, but if you think that that is a significant factor in the Phillies’ current problems, I have some swamp land … err, prime waterfront property – in Florida that you might be interested in.

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70. If the Phils do make a move, it will be Donald/Marson/kendrick type plus maybe one of the pitching prospects. I do not foresee them doing a major deal with Taylor at this point. I would consider moving Werth next year to give Taylor a slot too.

    Also why is it that every 2011 lineup prediction I see on here has Ibanez curiously absent? The Phils signed him to a 3 yr deal and they are not going to let him sit for that much money. They learned their lesson from Eaton and Jenkins.

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71. It is quite academic to say that there is a greater chance that someone fails to achieve consistant greatness in this game or transitions greatness from one level to the next, but the facts are facts and Taylor to this point in his AA experience is nothing short of great. He has produced at a rate across ALL Categories not one, two, or three, but all areas of offensive line items. There are no comparables in any league doing the same thing. Ave, hits, runs, SBs, Extra base hits, HRs, RBIs, OBP, OPS, Fielding, Assists.

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72. For the month of June:

    IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
    Pitcher A 30.0 32 16 5 7 20 4.80
    Pitcher B 36.1 43 25 8 14 18 6.19

    A is Jamie Moyer
    B is Johan Santana

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73. Some numbers to ponder: Manny Ramirez vs. Michael Taylor:

    In 1993 at age 21 ManRam put up these #’s at AA and AAA levels:
    AA- > 89 games- .340/.416/.581 OPS .998 32 doubles ,0 triples ,17 HR’s , 2 SB 67 runs scored, 68 strikeouts ,79 rbi
    AAA-> 40 games- .317/.424/.690 OPS 1.114 12 doubles, 0 triples ,14 HR’s , 1 SB ,53 runs scored ,35 strikeouts,36 rbi

    Michael Taylor after 74 games at age 23: (AA same league)
    .350/.414/.606 OPS 1.020 17 doubles ,4 triples, 15 HR’s ,
    14 SB, 53 runs scored ,58 rbi

    Defensively it’s no contest. Taylor wins that.

    Bottom line: Move him up to AAA after AS game (7/15)
    If he continues to hit there we’ve got a keeper.

    If he follows the ManRam path he will be playing in Philly next year.
    Tell me I’m crazy.

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74. You’re crazy.

    Manny was 2 years younger. Manny is one of the best pure hitters of all time.

    Do not compare current prospects to future Hall of Famers.

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75. RWG – You’re crazy.

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76. “Larry M — For what it’s worth, BP’s peak translation (which projects a minor league player’s current stats into a major league equivalent in his prime) for Taylor has him at .323/.382/.624/1.006 with 21 HR and 63 in 279 ABs (roughly half a season – so 42(!) HR in a full season). Take that with as many grains of salt as you choose, but I for one would like to take the chance he could be great for us and not someone else.”

    Maybe suscribers to BP (I’m not one) have access to upated projections, but the projections that I see on their site for Taylor are significantly lower than even my (frankly, probably optimistic) projections, let alone the numbers that you cite.

    It’s not that I disagree with your bottom line (given the Phillies’ other problems, I don’t think I’d even trade him for an ace, at least not for any of the realistic options). It’s just that I want to pour a little cold water on the dreasm of the people around here who think that he is going to, say, be a better hitter than Mike Schmidt. Yes, someone did indeed say that in another thread recently.

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77. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/pageEASpeak.php

    Don’t know if it’s subscribers only or not. Taylor is #2 on the leaders at the top of the page. Again, this is a peak projection, and BP admits that all peak translations are probably too high.

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78. Glen,

    Okay, I see now what you are looking at. The grain of salt that I would take that with is indeed quite large. Primarily, it doesn’t consider anything but his current year’s performance. Considering the sample size of this year’s performance, and prior good but less impressive performance, I think that’s more than a little optimistic.

    Ironically, the “regular” translation match’s my eye-ball estimates pretty closely, and gives more more confidence in my projections. Again, he could do better, or he could do worse. I hate to keep invoking the name of Marlon Byrd, but, well, there you go.

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79. I appreciate the opinions. I did ask for it didn’t I?

    Note the 2 big ifs at the bottom of that post though.

    I’ll be very happy to revisit the comparison at the end of the season IF he matches Manny.

    Is there really that much difference in 2 years?

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80. And again, I didn’t see this post before my most recent posts, but you have someone comparing Taylor to Manny Ramirez!!

    Not to beat a dead horse, but, even aside from the MASSIVE difference between doing that at 21 and 23, the fallacy there is that a (small) percentage of players who hit like that in AA go on to a career like Ramirez. Most don’t. You can’t compare a guy who is still in AA with a guy who represents the extreem right end of the bell curve.

    Maybe I shouldn’t waste my time, but I think there is some value in trying to explain to people here why Taylor’s performance, as good as it is, doesn’t make him the second coming of Mike Schmidt or Manny Ramirez.

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81. this board is high comedy…in this thread I’ve read the following outlandish comments

    1 – werth should leadoff (giving the phils no RH bats in the middle of the order…and totally dismissing the fact that he doesn’t have any attributes of a leadoff hitter)

    2 – an Utley trade should be explored (with a taylor comparison to top it off)

    3 – a manny ramirez/taylor comparison

    4 – the giants are willing to give up matt cain for a bunch of b-level prospects

    5 – Lee isn’t a number 1 starter, even though he dominated a superior league last year. I think he would excel in the less talented NL (and they may be able to get betancourt in that deal also…I think they should target him)

    6 – a moyer/santana comparison!!!!!!!!!!!! (this might take the cake)

    7 – rollins should hit 8th (even though it is the toughest spot in the lineup to hit becasue players see zero fastballs in that spot). Everyone ignored his flaws as a leadoff hitter for the past 5+ years…why is this a big deal now? He is in a slump…he deserves a shot at hitting his way out of it (especially since there is no better alternative in the leadoff spot).

    8 – etc, etc, etc

    For the record I voted for A. There is no guarantee that prospects pan out, no matter how good we, as fans, think they will turn out. Look at the top prospects from a year ago (marson, donald, carrasco)…all have struggled. If you can get a lee, halladay, oswalt, etc you do it and go after the WS again this year. The NL is there for the taking…the dodgers are hitting orlando hudson third and casey blake fourth for god sake (I know this changes when manny comes back, but that lineup doesn’t scare me).

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82. Put aside for the minute the fact that we have 17 years of evidence that Manny is one of the top 5 RH hitters of all-time, and that you’re comparing someone who has never had a major league at bat to said all-time great.

    At 23, Manny hit .308/.402/.558/.960 with 31 HRs for the Cleveland Indians.

    At 21, Taylor hit .227/.300/.365/.665 for the Williamsport Crosscutters.

    He’s not on Manny’s path. He’s on a much lower path.

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83. Right now I would trade Howard straight up for either Justin Masterson or Matt Cain. Taylor is ready for the big stage move Ibanez to First when he comes back. It won’t be long before D Brown is ready to move into RF replacing Werth. In 2010 and beyond my starting rotation is:
    Hamels
    Cain/Masterson
    Drabek
    Happ
    Carrasco

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84. The Moyer-Santana comparison was sarcasm, in response to the equally ludicrous calls to release Moyer.

    Santana is obviously hurt, btw.

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85. Not to mention that … ah … there might be some other explanation for at least a portion of Ramirez’ performance. One would hope that Taylor won’t go THAT route.

    “Is there really that much difference in 2 years?”

    Short answer: yes, there is. Still fairly short answer: at Taylor’s current age, Ramirez was an allstar and MVP candidate. Whereas at age 21, Taylor was opsing .665 in low A. I don’t have time for the long answer, sorry.

    And apologies if I was overly snarky in my response to you above. Unlike some people here (cough, John, cough, nowheels, cough) you don’t deserve that tone.

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86. A future hall of fame player for Justin masterson or cain wow. I can’t even answer that, because wow.

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87. PP Stop the insanity!I vote #3 If we can not win this !~#@!@$$#% division with what we have than ,maybe a few tweeks ,But than again what if the Muts win it !ok sell.omg i am insane too!

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88. mikemike your entitled to your opinion but Howard is no Pujols and his slugging and obp have dropped like a rock every since 2006. However he has managed to increase his total number of strikeouts.

    I’m sorry but with what I have in the system right now I’ll take a power arm over a power strikeout guy. Did you see Cain pitch last night? And have you ever seen Masterson pitch?

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89. Dmar how many wins do those two guys have between them, you are talking about a mvp homerun champs for two guys who might be good or not , I can’t believe you are serious. who trades a prospect like masterson for a know homerun champ, he has done nothing, as far as Cain he is on a roll but he is still unproven.

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90. Thats absurd.

    1 – comparing MOyer to Santana is absurd, total waste of time

    2 – Anyone wanting to trade Howard for Cain/Masterson is CRAZY – any GM that did that would be fired. The ONLY other player in our system with Howards power is Michael Taylor and he isnt ready yet. and when hes ready you move Victorino, slide Werth or Mayberry to CF and slot Taylor in RF and PAIR him with Howard in the order. YOu DONT trade power like that who is UNDER TEAM CONTROL.

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91. Btw M. Taylor was on Wip I caught most of it. He had two great things to say.
    1.About living up to other people’s projections(
    he will take his own cource)
    2. Very,very interesting about young players. He said people expected a lot because of his massive size. MT stated that he is now growing into his body. That he had a man’s body but not a man’s strength and is still growing.
    A well spoken man as one might expect even warm.
    One night think that the Phils had a hand in getting the interview and showcasing MT to the fans (no trade HOOray)

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92. mikemike: Cain get’s no run support in San Fran. Masterson if you just looked at his paper stats doesn’t appear to be special but ask any scout or GM about his stuff.

    Geoff: Absurd? I doubt it. Howard is nothing more than Adam Dunn only more like-able. At the end of the day you need only replace his run production and that’s easily done when you add more BA and less strikeouts.

    Jeese Ibanez was on pace to out slug him this year with a much better batting average.

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93. Don’t sell the farm…play for 2010. If they can make a couple small moves to shore up the pen, bench or even rotation fine…but don’t give up top prospects for a long-shot.

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94. Howard is a 2nd half player ,he will catch fire,and once again take us to the playoffs,we would not have been in playoffs with out his last 2 2nd halves

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95. Rollins is traditionally a 2nd half guy too.

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96. I think the big club is going to live or die by the performances of their stars. Rollins needs to play better, Ibanez needs to get healthy, and the pitching needs to come around. I’m extremely wary of selling prospects for relief pitching. Yes the Brad Lidge trade worked out, but most deadline deals are where the truly regrettable Ricardo Rincon for Brian Giles type deals come around.

    If you can get a deal that will help the club beyond 2009, pull the trigger. But it makes little sense to go all in when the playoffs are such a crapshoot anymore. Win the division, hope for the best. I think when this club gets hot, they can beat anyone in the National League.

    Quick note on Ryan Howard, he’s an awful lot like Frank Howard or Boog Powell. His type of style does not age well and that does not bode for a Hall of Fame career.

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97. a couple points things can always get worse. a responce to rollins efforts. there is no mystycal law that states he wont continue to plummett. there were a few answers about what to do but for the most part most seem to want to ride it out. for how long til he,s hitting .150. dont assume he,ll get better, hope yes, but dont assume it. pf what was the comment meche will cost us taylor. an actual report or an opinion. theres no way i would give up taylor for meche. forget haren, cain, halliday their not going anywhere. lee has had 2 good years not worth a top prospect. which leaves us with meche or someone similar who if the g.m. does his job wont cost that much. does anyone agree that werth belongs in top spot? and why the talk of trading ibanez, he was only leading the league in hr,s and rbi,s before he went down. one picher, werth leading off, ibanez back and rollins batting 8th , carpenter in the pen and this team wins.

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98. Cholly has to leave Jimmy alone now,give him july and august everyday ,hell his 2nd half #s gotta be better.and Werth is going to hit 30 hrs and score 110 runs,Raauuulll’s#s will dwarf pat the bats,
    The pen will not be the same ,but if and we say”if”the starters pick it up,and i can’t see their#s being any worse in the second half,we can once again beat the Muts

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99. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/where-are-ryan-howards-hrs-going

    Speaking of Howard…here’s an interesting blurb on his HRs this year from Fangraphs.

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100. p.s. why the comparison to marlon byrd for taylor? byrd wasnt nearly the player taylor,s been. .305 16 hr,s in his final year at swb. his reading stats arent even close.

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101. Some funny stuff here. Trade Howard for a young untested pitcher?? I hope I get to play fantasy baseball with you some time… The Phillies will of course win or lose on the backs of their stars, that’s always the way it should be. If Rollins doesn’t hit all year, they won’t win, its that simple. If Cole finishes with an era around 5, they won’t win. No team can win when its stars don’t perform close to expectations, its just the way things are. By the way, as for the Phillies messing up Hamels in ST, that couldn’t be farther from the truth. The reality is that Hamels is likely struggling this year because of his workload last year and we’ve talked about that for a long time. The Phillies did the right thing in letting him start late, kept his workload lighter than normal, and have not pushed him hard during the season. The reality is that they’re protecting him from arm overuse and possible surgery with their correct handling now. They now what the stats show and they know how mnay innings he pitched last year. At this point, they’re hoping that he can turn it around in the second half because he hasn’t thrown too many innings yet.

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102. Dude, Howard isnt going anywhere until his contract is up…get over it. When his contract is up he may very well only be able to DH and then you can let him walk.

     Ryan Howard is the best power hitter we have had in a generation and you want to get rid of him for JUSTIN MASTERSON! AHAHAHA – Idiot. Masterson COULD BE a good starter in CBP, but hes a mid-rotation guy AT BEST.

     Matt Cain is good, but SF wouldnt do that and niether would the Phils. 99% of the time you trade PROSPECTS and maybe a major leaguer who would get more PT on a diff team – NOT superstar for superstar.

     This lineup is good enough to win again. They can even afford to move Werth or VIctorino in a deal for a top of the rotation beast. Ryan Howard is the best stretch run guy in baseball. All of a sudden you look up in mid-August and hes on fire and his numbers are right up there with the top echelon of power hitters in all of baseball.

     Its NOT going to happen.. WHy do some of our Phans ALWAYS (in every Philly sports) want to trade one of our best players who actually produce in the clutch? – Howard caught fire in the WS for a few games which was all he needed to do to get a WS ring…

     McNabb, Lindros, Iverson are different than Howard. They dont have championship rings.

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103. Had Michael Taylor started his pro career right after high school (as someone else did) there’s a decent chance he would have put up these numbers at this level at age 21.
     This is only his second full professional season. I don’t know what to make of his Stanford experience. But I do know that a full time emphasis on baseball and strength training would have accelerated his development. Stanford academics, I’ve heard, are fairly demanding.
     I WOULDN’T TRADE HIM FOR ANYTHING LESS THAN AN ACE WITH LONG TERM SIGNABILITY.

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104. James-Thanks for breaking code and letting us discuss this. Great website, I am addicted officially now!

     I voted for small moves since I think the bullpen will be fine (once the guys get healthy and find their way) and they will upgrade the bench somehow. Selling the farm for an ace would be fine with me, but I don’t consider it essential after last year-WFC for those of you who were not following…

     Is there anyone who would NOT vote for all-in if the Phils did not win the big one last year?

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105. as much as i love this infield , unless utley can perform at his current level for another 6-7 years the only real hof,er is howard. think of that in 125 years the phils have 6 hof,ers. when i say 6 i dont include the pete rose,s etc. i mean klein, alexander, roberts, ashburn, bunning, schmidt and carlton. excuse me 7. 5 years at his current pace will put howard just about there. 6 definately. btw doent thome have a similar type of body.

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106. “p.s. why the comparison to marlon byrd for taylor? byrd wasnt nearly the player taylor,s been. .305 16 hr,s in his final year at swb. his reading stats arent even close.”

     Well, close than you think, which I’ll get to, but you’re missing the point. Or, more accurately, failing at reading comprehension. Do I think Taylor is going to have a career like Byrd? No. Could he? Heck yes. This is the point: many players, and Byrd is just one, never come close to their AA performance.

     So, the comparision, both at Reading at 23 years old:
     BA OBP Slg
     Byrd .316 .386 .555
     Taylor .350 .414 .606

     Now, of course Taylor is a bit better (so far; let’s see when the dust clears at the end of the season). But not, honestly, dramatically better. Byrd had as much power, and walked a little more. Also, the above stats don’t show it, but Byrd stole bases as a higher rate with a higher percentage. Byrd hit fewer singles, basically, that’s it. (.350 versus .316 over 270 ab, which is what Taylor has now, is just 9 hits.) That’s a darn impressive season by Byrd. He never came close to that again.

     And I’m not sure what the SWB stats are supposed to mean – that really supports my point if anything – he wasn’t as good at SWB as he was at Reading, and even worse in the majors. That could happen to Taylor. I don’t PREDICT that it will, scroll up to see my really pretty positive projections for him, but it’s at least as likely (more likely, really) than some of the wild predictions of superstardom that you read here.

     On another topic, Cain is awesome, and Howard isn’t going to be going to the Hall of Fame without buying a ticket. That said, I probably wouldn’t do the deal. It’s a moot point; SF certainly wouldn’t.

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107. Both Utley and Howard are handicapped (in terms of the HOF) by getting a fairly late start for players of that caliber. That said, Utley is far, far more likely than Howard to go to the HOF. He is overall at least as good an offensive player while playing a much tougher defensive position, and playing it at a near GG level.

     (1) He has, so far, been a better, more valuable player, overall and every year except 2006.

     (2) Given the type of player he is, or, more accurately, the type of player Howard is, Utley is far, far more likely to keep most of his value deep into his 30s. (See above posts; Howard’s comps are … not encouraging in terms of retaining his value into his mid to late 30s.)

     Countering that to some extent is the fact that Howard, with his HRs and RBIs, has somewhat more the profile that historically has impressed HOF voters. And Howard has the MVP, while Utley (so far) does not. But that’s not nearly enough to make Howard a better candidate.

     Overall, I’d say Utley has maybe a 40% chance of getting in. I don’t think John is far off in terms of what he needs to do – I’d say 4-5 more seasons at his current level rather than 6-7 – but I think he has a decent shot at doing that. Among other things, he is fairly likely to retire as the career HR leader among secondbasemen.

     As for Howard – less than 5% chance of making the HOF. First of all, 7.5 more years at his current pace won’t IMO put him on the level of Schmidt, etc., except maybe superficially (i.e., without adjusting for context). But yeah, if he keeps it up for 7 1/5 more years he’ll have over 500 HR and that might be enough.

     But the chances of him continuing at the same rate over the next 7 1/2 years are lowl.

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108. Thome, no. He was good enough to play in the majors when he was 20, and agile enough that he could passably play third base for the first few years of his career. And Thome was still a better player at his peak, due to his plate discipline.

     I’m not certain Howard has even had a HOF peak. Two years of top performance, but his OBP over his last 1000 plate appearances is .335. His OPS over the last two seasons is not even top ten among first basemen. The home runs and RBIs are sexy, but he simply makes too many outs.

     Not to entirely discredit Howard though. Remember two years into Citizens Bank Park when the crowds dropped heavily? Howard’s home run explosion changed the atmosphere of that ballpark to an extreme I never thought possible. They sell out 80% of the time. It’s incredible. That’s a reason they can not trade Howard either. There is no good way to spin it from a P.R. standpoint.

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109. I do agree Utley should be a HOF candidate. He is one of the best players in baseball right now thanks to his offense and defense. Utley should collect 100 RBIs for a fifth straight year, and that puts him in rarified air as far as second basemen are concerned. I hope someday the writers recognize that Utley, and not Howard, is the player most valuable to the ballclub.

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110. “btw doent thome have a similar type of body.”

     Fair is fair, when John makes a reasonable point I’ll acknowledge it. That said:

     (1) It’s not just a body type issue. If you look at players with similar statistical profiles to Howard (who also in many instances have similar body types) the picture for Howard is somewhat bleak.

     (2) Thome is one player. His profile suggests that it’s possible that Howard will continue to produce into his late 30s. No one denies that. But is it likely? For every Thome you have a half dozen (at least) Mo Vaughns.

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111. And I (slightly) regret the “reading comprehension” comment. John asks for most of the abuse I send his way, but didn’t deserve it this time. (Though I DO think that the point of my Byrd comment was pretty clear, that I wasn’t comparing them so much as saying that Byrd is a cautionary example of why superb AA performance doesn’t necessarily guarantee major league stardom).

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112. Did someone say that howard is nothing more than Adam Dunn? I’d call them pretty different players. Howard hits for more power and a slightly higher average, but his OBP is, well, bad. I mean, its like .330 Dunn can walk. He’s a way more complete hitter. a worse fielder, but i bet in our line up he gets 140 RBIs a year like howard does, and scores more runs.

     And Geoff, please don’t site championships as a reason for a player being good. You’ll start to sound like a yankees fan.

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113. Alan, coming to the defense of John for maybe the very first time ever, I don’t think he was saying that Howard is comparable to Thome overall (he isn’t, for the reasons you cite), but that he has a similar body type (to counter my claim that Howard was not likely to retain much value in his mid to late 30s). And he does, sorta, kinda have at least a germ of a point.

     Mind you, I still agree that Howard isn’t going into the HOF. But he could have a gradual decline phase (as opposed to a steep one) if he continues to watch his weight and work on his conditioning.

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114. It is very easy to take a position that someone in sports will not pan out considering that most don’t. It is even easier to challenge someone on their excitment with regards to a particular prospect because again the chances of the prospect panning out are slim. So, instead of taking the light path, why not pick a prospect and take a risk and suggest why he stands a chance.
     This PhuturePhillies site I would think is certainly a place for excitement, but if at every giddy word, the knowledgeable voice of reality is going to pounce, it could become borish.

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115. LarryM Says:
     July 2, 2009 at 4:37 pm

     And I (slightly) regret the “reading comprehension” comment.

     John asks for most of the abuse

     I send his way, but didn’t deserve it this time.

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116. I thank God I dont know you Larry but if I do I am glad I don’t
     knowit.

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117. nw its ok i like larry he,s funny. larry i know you want to be the official ombudsman here and you have my vote. i mean that comment that howard has a 5 % chance of making the hall, thats a real side splitter. but just remember my friend this is earth.

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118. Anon,

     Sure, but shouldn’t we temper that enthusiasm with some realism? I mean, look at my projection for him above, that’s pretty optomistic, and I’m on record several times saying he is a great prospect. But when people start comparing him to Ramirez, Schmidt, etc., and projecting 8-9 all star appearances, and so forth – I think it’s helpfult o inject a note of reality.

     Nowheels,

     I was tempted to make a snarky remark, but I’ll simply say that you guys dish it out plenty yourselves, I figure you can take a little of it.

     John,

     The thing about the ombudsman comment is that really it applies more to your attitude on this site than mine. But I’ll cop to a certain amount of arrogance, just not quite as much as you, and IMO with a little more to back it up. As for Howard, I’m amused that you’re amused. If anything, 5% may be a bit on the high side.

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119. Love the site PP. My vote was to sell the farm but only for halladay or haren, I want 3 guys in my starting rotation with a last name thats starts with H. But seriously, those guys are most likely not available, prospects are not guarantees if we trade drabek (coming off TJ injury) we still have CC, stutes,worley, savery, knapp, sampson, at all different levels of the system, not to mention the kid colvin we drafted, but must sign him. If we get rid of taylor we still have d brown, and a bunch of other low minors of’s like gose, and we still have werth,vic,and ibanez for a few more years. I went through too many years of crappy teams and championship heartbreaks, kind of got addicted to winning it last year. How does this rotation look
     Hamels
     Haren/Halladay
     Happ
     Blanton
     CC/Savery/Moyer
     You could have me going every 5 th day and the team would still be fine. I’m sure i could get my fastball to 78. Again great site.

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120. Is there any chance that a package starting with werth and CC might get the giants to listen on Cain…They have couple stud pitchers on the farm(lefties) and CC can be their righty prospect to help shed some of the pain of losing cain…Werth is still relatively young under control for an additional year and can easily move right into their 3 or 4 hole and be a do everything offensive guy, which they desperately need…I know its hard to trust Taylor but im willing to give him a look and if not dobbs/mayberry platoon wouldnt be devestating considering we’d be strengthening our rotation…just a thought

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121. Domingo Santana with another home run today.

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122. Taylor seems to get a ton of discussion here, and rightfully so. The Manny comparisons are a bit much for sure, but let’s give him a pass for the W-port season– what can you learn from 2.5 months of baseball when a guy first turns pro? I have seen Michael play live three straight years and even when he hasn’t played his best games, he is still impressive. I won’t project him to be the next anyone (Manny, Bay, etc.), but I do feel he will be a solid pro with LARGE upside. No guarantees. I saw Marlon Byrd many times and liked him but never saw him as having the potential of Taylor. Interesting to read that Taylor still feels he is growing into his body.

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123. One last word on the Manny vs. Michael post:

     I saw Manny play that year and he was obviously a player on the fast track. The comparison I made was a valid one comparing players at a similar age ( exactly the same years of pro experience). Just as obviously the comparison ends there. It wasn’t meant to suggest he will have the same career as Manny but his skill set is close and Taylor has plus skills in speed and defensive play that Manny doesn’t have.
     As I said in one of my follow up posts it is a comparison I will make again when more data is available to warrent it.
     Let’s hope it does.

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124. howard is nowhere near a HOF player. his numbers have decreased every year since 2006. And he is the fourth best 1B in his own league (let alone MLB — Fielder, Gonzalez, and Pujols are all better all around players…and the first two are younger).

     Utley is a shoe in for the HOF if he stays healthy for the next 5 years (ie, doesn’t miss significant time).

     please stop with the asanine trade proposals for matt cain….werth and CC??? really, why would the giants even entertain that offer.

     and whoever it is that keeps saying hit werth leadoff, please stop. you are embarrassing yourself.

     this is a good site, but most of these comments are just plain awful

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125. I think the Giants would entertain that offer. Werth and Carrasco would be a good starting point for such a deal as they desperately need a legit offensive threat and giving an OF who also has great range would help their defense as well. People forget that Werth was recently counted as the “most underrated player in the NL”. Throw in a near MLB ready SP who has pretty good stuff and that’s the makings of a deal. We’d probably have to toss in some money or another prospect (more of a B level type guy.)

     Personally, I don’t see it happening and I’m not even sure it would be a good trade. Cain is a very good pitcher though. He could be a legit #1 on a lot of teams.

     Howard is not a HOF at this point and he probably won’t end up there due to his steadily declining numbers and a late start to his career. Had he broken in a couple years earlier (when he was likely ready anyway) he’d likely be closer to 300 HRs instead of near 200 like he is now and we’d be saying he might be a borderline HOF instead. If, and likely when, he gets hot in the 2nd half and suddenly finishes with near 50 HRs, 140 RBI and around a .275 avg again, we’ll all look quite silly…again. Remember this time last year he was batting .219 and there was rampant talk of platooning him.

     Utley will have a statue outside CBP in 20 years.

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126. I think we should remember, as far as this Werth and CC for Cain proposal goes, that Jayson Werth is 30 years old right now. And by the time Carrasco and the Giants pitching prospects are ready to seriously have a team compete for a championship, Werth will probably be 34 or 35 and not be as effective a player as he is right now.

     The Giants know this, and so I doubt they would consider such an offer.

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127. why is the thought of werth leading off so strange, nameless one.

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128. Manny would be a very high target for MT but he would be a very solid citizen and very hard and intelligent worker and a serious student of the game. I was very very impressed with his interview on the radio thursday and his view of baseball/

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129. as far as werth see bobby bonds. almost exactly the same if you adjust werths stats for time. power, speed, bb,s defense. as far as howard i will bet anyone on here baring injury, he makes the hall. 2000 ab,s 200 hr,s 600 rbi,s age 29.

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130. the closest player i,ve ever seen to howard is stargell who i saw live many times. pops played til he was 42, with a body like howards. 8000 ab,s. just give howard 6000 ab,s which is ridiculously short at his current pace and his adjusted numbers are 600 hr,s 1800 rbi,i and thats retiring at 36!

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131. john do you remember when stargell and parker used to try to hit Carlton, Carlton would throw that slider and they couldn’t touch it.

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132. Bill Conlin article today!

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133. I would say Werth is the best lead-off candidate among the current starting lineup. Sees alot of pitches, fouls off alot of pitches, better at getting on base than many, certainly a better leadoff candidate than Victorino or Rollins. Downside is he would not be available to insert into lower spots in batting order , to break up some the left-handedness, especially with the expected return of Ibanez, and for the power and rbi’s which would do more lower in the line-up.

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134. Alright, I wasn’t going to jump into the Howard HOF debate again, but I can’t let so much wrong information go unanswered. The Stargell comparision is ludicrious; they are not even vaguely similar players. Stargell was not as big a guys as Howard, and was agile enough to play the outfield deep into this 30s. He was, in context, a good deal better than Howard – I thought people around here knew that you needed to adjust offensive totals of contemporary players to account for the offensive explosion, but I guess some people haven’t gotten that. He had a long career, but, as I argued above, the guys who really are a good statistical comp for Howard tended to have very short careers.

     As for Howard … looking at him in 2006 and even 2007, I can see how people saw him as a possible HOF candidate. If he strung together a half dozen seasons like those, he might indeed have been a viable HOF candidate. Even then, he would be handicapped by his somehate late start for an elite player, making it a little harder to amass excellent career stats, but 6 seasons like 2006-2007 (hopefully closer to 2006) plus a gradual decline phase (unlikely but possible), he would have had a good shot.

     But he didn’t continue to hit like that. The kind of player he was in 2008, and is so far this year, is not an even vaguely HOF player. There are … dozens of ways to show this. Start with the fact that the players with stats most comparable to him (through 28) are not in the HOF. None of them. See my post above and baseball reference.com. Then add the fact that, unless he recovers to his 2006 performance, he isn’t close to being the top first baseman in his leage (OPS is admittedly an imperfect measure, but this year, for example, he is 7th in ops among NL first basemen. Just behind him with an almost identical OPS is Adam LaRoche, no one’s idea of a HOFer. I could go on, but John accuses me of writing books, so I’ll stop for now.

     Except to add that 2000 ab at 29 is not even vaguely an impressive number. Stargell had over 3000. Jimmy Rollins had over 5000. 600 rbi is somewhat moreso, but not truely impressive by historical standards. 200 HR by that age is more impressive, but really that’s all he does at this point in his career. Mediocre BA, lousy OBP, low BB totals, plays an undemanding posiition and not particularly well, etc.

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135. As for who should leadoff, I think Werth is a reasonable choice, though his OBP is not quite what you would like to see. Utley would be a good choice, though admittedly a little unconventional. I honestly don’t think Victorino would be a bad choice – certainly a more traditional lead off hitter, though his OBP, like Werth’s. is a little low.

     The Werth to Bobby Bonds is … not a good one. Ironically, it would be at least an understandable comparision if you DIDN’T adjust for historical context. But making such adjustments makes the comparison ridiculous.

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136. Baseball America has listed Michael Taylor as a mid-season All-Star. Says he is a masher with speed and star potential.

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137. Can we trade Amaro?

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138. If Howard has 3 more years at his current pace, that would put him at 350 HRs. If he has 3 more 50 Hr seasons, that would buy him another 4-5 year contract to “decline” at 30 HR’s per season. That puts him at 500 HR’s at the age of 37.
     Putting Ryan Howard as a 5% chance at the Hall of fame is silly. And it’s always the guys who want to pit Chase Utley against Ryan Howard who make these silly suggestions.

     Ryan Howard career OPS: 142
     Chase Utley career OPS: 130

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139. Nero played a fiddle while Rome burned, right?

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140. mike77, you do understand that there are different offensive standards for 2B and 1B…thus why Utley is regarded so highly.

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141. Anonymous Says:
     July 2, 2009 at 11:01 pm

     please stop with the asanine trade proposals for matt cain….werth and CC??? really, why would the giants even entertain that offer.

     i see you make bold statements backed up by a anonymous name

     if someone said matt hoilday and a pitching prospect then would it have been a “asanine” (try learning how to spell the big words before u use them- asinine)

     holiday .275/ .373 /425 /798 8hr,40rbi,9sb

     werth .264 /365 /480 /845 15hr,43rbi, 11sb

     giants can make a legit run with a versatile bat…and i said START with those 2

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142. Anyone who believes that Howard RIGHT NOW is a better player than Utley doesn’t even deserve to be taken seriously. Even if the career OPS differential was an accurate representation of their offensive value, a good defensive second baseman with an OPS of 130 is far, far more valuable than a defensively mediocre first baseman with an OPS of 142. But that career OPS differential does not fairly represent their current offensive abilities – not even close. We’re a LONG way from 2006; since then, Ultley has a big and growing edge over Howard in OPS (tied in 2007, small edge to Utley in 2008, big edge to Utley in 2009.

     Now it’s true that OPS is an imperfect measure of offensive value. But imperfect in ways which make Utley look even better when one considers other factors which OPS doesn’t adequately measure. Utley a far better baserunner; his decent SB totals with a superb SB% are only the most visible part of that. Utley is much better at getting on base, and it’s well known that OPS slightly undervalues OBP relative to SLG. Howard grounds into more double plays.

     Now, none of these things make a huge difference – they don’t have to. The basic point is that if you look at the last 3 years, Utley is a better player offensively, and a great defensive second baseman versus a mediorce defensive first baseman. Utley is the best second baseman in the league, by far, year in and year out; Howard is at best the 3rd or 4th best firstbaseman in the league, and I’m being charitable.

     As for the projections on Howard’s HRs, he could indeed get 500 HR though (again) that assumes a pretty gradual decline phase and there are good reasons to beleive he won’t have that (see above) but even if he gets 500 HR, it is unlikely, given the HR explosion, that 500 HR will remain an automatic ticket to Cooperstown.

     The only way Howard gets into the HOF is if he gets back to where he was in 2006-2007 – at least back to where he was in 2007 – sustains that for 3 years, and then has a gradual decline phase. He could do that – but has, IMO roughly a 5% chance of doing so. It just hasn’t sunk in for some people that Howard’s performance over the last 1 1/2 years is nowhere near a HOF level performance for a player in his prime.

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143. It’s crazy how underrated Utley is. I don’t even understand how it’s possible. He is literally one of the 3-5 best players in all of baseball but he is always over shadowed by people on his own team. For example Dustin Pedroia won MVP in the AL last year. Do people realize that Utley had a better year than him?

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144. Yeah – and this year, when he is finally putting together a real MVP year (2007 would have been but for the broken hand) he’ll likely lose out to Pujols who has been ungodly.

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145. stargell played the of early in his career. he was one of the worst of,ers i ever saw, he wasnt exactly mister glove at 1st. as far as offensive era,s the so called steroid era ended in 2003, though residual events still occur. check power numbers from 1993-2003. then check 2004- present. stargell weighed every bit what howard does. btw howards ops is virtually the same as mays and musial and dont accuse me of comparing howard to either one of those guys. just his ops. and a note most bb historians consider rp or run production the ultimate stat. rbi,s plus runs scored minus hr,s. the only player ever to have a .300 rp was lou gehrig. the babe ,s highest .292 next cobb in 1911 .288 check todays rp,s and youll see how good those guys really were. btw utley is my favorite player i hope he can maintain it for another 5-6 years. 2000 hits 300 hrs. make that 7-8 years.

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146. I voted to go for an ace — teams should always be willing to deal for an ace, even if they have two or three already.

     To compete for a title you need a Big Three in your rotation and the front office should see that as a permanent top priority. Too often teams are satisfied with a 1-2 punch in the rotation but it is the 3rd starter who represents the tipping point against other top teams.

     And yet, given the Phillies current situation I would be slightly more hesitant to pull off a mega deal. First of all, there aren’t a lot of aces out there. Also, the farm is looking better than ever. Perhaps if Hamels were in top form and we had a true #2 starter I would be more eager to pull the trigger but as it is, even an ace would not give these Phillies a Big Three in the rotation. It might be better to hold on to our top prospects in anticipation of Drabek and/or Carrasco blossoming into Big Three contenders by late 2010.

     Either way, what the Phillies really need for 2009 is more hunger.

     Hunger is all about chemistry. Raul Ibanez showed up hungry and his play inspired the whole team. He desperately wants a taste of the glory everyone else gorged on last season. Consider also how J.A. Happ’s hunger has helped him succeed so far this year.

     On the other hand success has slightly spoiled most of the guys who got rings. A sense of accomplishment and satisfaction has somewhat sapped their will. They are still professionals and still compete at a high level but the fire isn’t burning quite as furiously as before. Charlie Manual has done as good a job keeping them focused as one could expect but its only natural to have a collective let down after winning it all.

     Perhaps the raging fire will return as they are passed in the standings, perhaps not. But if the Phillies can’t deal for a guy who’s hungry and can inspire his new teammates, there’s no need to empty out the farm. They might as well just bring up Carrasco, Marson, maybe even Michael Taylor and hope for the best. What these hungry kids lack in experience they might make up for in enthusiasm. And even if the rookies can’t sustain success into September, they might just give the team the lift it needs to snap them out of their funk in time for a run at a repeat.

     Strangely enough, as Chase Utley suggested, the Phillies’ recent struggles might be good for the team. Now more of the vets have something to prove. Rollins, Lidge, Hamels, Madson, Moyer, Romero and Park will all have chips on their shoulders to start the second half. If three of them return to top form things could turn around in a hurry, especially if the farm produces real contributions.

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147. “It just hasn’t sunk in for some people that Howard’s performance over the last 1 1/2 years is nowhere near a HOF level performance for a player in his prime.”

     Ryan Howard’s terrible last 1 1/2 years: 68 HR’s, 200 rbi’s and 120 OPS+. That is a pretty good performance.

     Mike Schmidt, Willie Stargell and Willie McCovey’s carreer OPS+: 147
     Ryan Howard’s OPS+: 142
     Dave Winfield’s OPS+: 130

     Yet Howard has only 5% chance at the Hall of fame. Interesting.

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148. NEPP says, “mike77, you do understand that there are different offensive standards for 2B and 1B…thus why Utley is regarded so highly.”

     I regard Chase Utley highly. It just gets under my skin that some have to denigrate Howard to prop up Utley. You can compliment Utley as your favorite without trying to denigrate the 2006 and 2007 MVP’s. When Utley deserves to get an MVP award he will get one.

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149. mike77, all you are doing is showing the limitations of using OPS+ as a tool to compare players. Winfield made the Hall based on the total package…he was a GG RF for something like 8 straight seasons on top of his offense.

     Howard is already trending downward in his numbers…thus the odds are against him. Its not that hard of a debate.

     Utley is a Top 5 player in all of MLB whereas Howard may be a Top 5 1B (debatable).

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150. “Its not that hard of a debate. Utley is a Top 5 player in all of MLB whereas Howard may be a Top 5 1B (debatable).”

     I’m not debating Utley and Howard. I’m debating Howards production as compared to HOFamers.
     This nonsense about not being one of the 5 best 1b in the game. So what? Keith Hernandez was considered the best for a number of years (including years when Stargell and McCovey played 1st) yet he is’nt in the Hall of fame and they are. Ryan Howard has HOF production and until he stops producing…

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151. oh nameless one-yes taylor vs. manny is probably not realistic but not as far as u purport. If taylor could avg. 300-30-100 w/his speed and far superior fielding, glove and intangibles he would be a step below manny’s .320-37-125. these #’s for taylor may very well be optimistic but not unrealistic. As far as trading werth and a bunch of b prospects for cain i assume you are referring to my proposal which was werth, brown, bastardo, carrasco and one of marson, donald savery. I think the phils would be more likely to not do this trade; the giants would probably jump on it. The worst prospects here are probably b+ prospects. I really like the starting point proposal of werth, carrasco someone else suggested. You must have missed the starting poiint comment.

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152. There is just SO much wrong in John’s post and Mike77’s posts that I can’t really do them justice in the time I have, not to mention that it would be the longest post in the history of this blog. Basically you have two TYPES of errors: errors of fact and errors of context. Plenty of both, here are just a few:

     (1) Stargell played the OF most of his career – he was still a regular outfielder at age 34. He wasn’t a great defensive OF, though better than John says. But the point is this: the fact that he could play the OF makes him more valuable than a first baseman with similar stats; moreover, he played the OF because he was reasonably fast and agile, no Rickey Henderson for sure, but much faster than Howard. The simple fact is that lumbering, slow, first basemen don’t tend to age well.

     (2) As amusing as John’s comment about the steroid error ending in 2003, that really misses the point. Levels of offense are still at historic highs, albeit down slightly from their peak. HRs are down a bit more, though still historically high, but that isn’t really the point – no one denies that Howard is a great HR hitter, but you don’t get into the HOF for that reason alone. His total offensive performance needs to be put in context, and if you do that, he isn’t a HOFer.

     Mike’s OPS comparisons suffer from several problems, but the biggest is the fallacy of comparing a player in mid career with a retired player. 99.9% of the time, player’s OPS’ declines as they age. I’ll be the first to admit that if Howard somehow maintains an OPS of 142 for his career (it’s already down to 140, btw, 142 was before the season started), and has a long career, he will likely go to the HOF, but it isn’t happening. Let’s be optimistic and assume, say, 6 more years at his current level. That will bring his career OPS under 130. Add a couple decline years in and it will be even lower.

     (Other problems include the fact that OPS does not capture a lot of important information about a player – I mean, Schmidt was a gold gloeve third baseman for goodness sakes – and all of those players had very long careers; we’ll see how Howard ends up comparing there. I wouldn’t hold my breath).

     (3) No one here is saying Howard hasn’t put in a “pretty good performance” over the past 2 years. Heck, that may be even damning with faint praise. But there is a world of difference between a “pretty good performance” and a HOF performance. An OPS of 120 in a player’s prime might be HOF worthy if we were talking about a middle infielder. But if we put every firstbaseman who played at that level in the HOF, the place would be overflowing with them. That’s roughly what Cecil Fielder did in his prime. Cecil Fielder was a very good player, but he is no one’s idea of a HOFer. Yes, Howard is a bit better. But he is a heck of a lot closer to Fielder than to McCovey.

     Sigh, got to run, more later. Hope this doesn’t run afoul of our host’s comemnt policy; I think it was a legitimate departure from the original topic.

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153. i dont get comparing 1st basemen to other positions. obviously most positions are more difficult than 1st, thats why 1st basemen must produce power numbers. compare howard to other 1st basemen. it doesnt matter that he,s playing in an era where there are other hof 1st basemen, all of them should make it. and i dont see any obvious downtrend. utley ,s my favorite player and i hope he makes it but why the position that howard will suddenly fall off the face of the earth. i can easily see him playing 7 more years with his current production, which makes him a shoo in.

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154. And I’m sorry, saying that Howard is not going to the HOF and isn’t as good as Utley (who my gut tells me IS going to the HOF, even if my head tells me he only has around a 40% chance) is not the same as “denigrating” him. I like Howard, I wouldn’t trade him, he is the best first baseman in Phillies history, and 2006 was an amazing year (as I said, 3-4 more of them and he WOULD be a serious HOF candidate).

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155. i lived in pittsburg from 67 – 77. i saw at least half of the pirates games. stargell split time between 1st and the of the 1st half of his career. he was moved permanently to the of around 74. he was one of the worst outfielders i ever saw and i loved pops. as far as levels of offensive production they are now in line with 1920 – 1940. 1993-2003 showed a 25 % increase over the 5 preceding decades. they have now fallen dramatically. 2003- present. obviously you missed my comment on comparing 1st basemen and other positions. ill repete it. thats why 1st base is a power position. comparing howard and schmidt,bench,morgan hornsby wagner is insane.

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156. btw someone said the phillies are selling 80 percent of their games? the phillies are one of 2 teams selling at over 100 %. red sox 101.4, phils 100.6. cubs 96. angels 93 mets 92. the resy of bb is below 85 % with half below 50%. since cbp opened in 94 the phils have averaged 93% attendence. 3rd only to boston and the cubs. mlb. attendence . com espn.

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157. Gone most of the day, topic is dieing out anyway. Briefly –

     The offensive explosion – John, did you even look at the numbers? Or did you just rely upon your memory? Offense peaked in 2000 at a little over 5 runs per team per game, fell a little in 2001, basically remained steady till 2007, then fell a little in 2008 – but was still at 4.66 runs/team/game, way over the historical averages. For comparision, 1983 was 4.29, 1973 was 4.22, and 1968 was 3.42.

     Stargell – I’m not going to belabor the point, since the whole comparision (started by John) is stupid, Howard and Stargell are not even vaguely similar players, but once basic factual correction: Stargell through his 34th year played 1296 games in the outfield and only 263 games at first base. He was a left fielder who played a little first base, and who was then shifted to first base late in his career.

     As for comparing Howard to first basemen, by all means. I’m not the guy comparing him to a left fielder. Way back up thread I listed his best statistical comps through age 28. All of those guys are first basemen, most of them were slow, lumbering, large. None of those guys is in the HOF, most of them had steep decline phases.

     Now, in fairness, Howard is better than most of those guys (not all of them. McGriff, at least, was better). In comparing him with the all time greats, he falls short. Now, obviously there is a problem comparing a guy in mid career with people who are retired. Much of our disgreement is projecting what Howard will do for the rest of his career. If you imagine that he will continue to have an OPS+ of 140 for the next 5-6 years, sure it’s easy to make a case for him in the HOF. I don’t think he is going to do that, even with a gradual decline phase, especially since he has (based upon 2 1/2 years of evidence) already declined from his 2006 peak. I’ve presented some evidence (in terms of his best comps) to back that up. John and other people disagreeing have presented … Willie Stargell. But I’m not going to beat that particular dead horse. If you want to believe that Howard will get back to the level of (say) 2007 even, and keep it up for 5-6 years, go ahead. I hope you are right (even though it will likely not be in a Phillies uniform past 2011). I wouldn’t bet on it.

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158. And John, just to drive the point home, I’m not the guy comparing him with players from other positions. On the contrary. (In some cases I responded to other people, youself included, making such comparisons). Schmidt,bench,morgan hornsby wagner? Are you confusing this with another thread? The only name there that anyone mentioned was Schmidt, and it was YOU who brought him into the conversation.

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159. http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/The_continuing_maturation_of_JA_Happ.html

     Oaky PP didn’t know where to put this. Nice article on Happ and y the way – tooting my own horn again – I said he had the makeup of Glavine on the mound. This kid is a winner.

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160. To add on to Larry’s second point in his long post. Comparing Howard’s OPS+ to Hall of Famers is indeed misleading because those players went through their decline phases while Howard has yet not. Baseball-Reference has a tool that allows a reader to easily sum a period of years. Here are OPS+’s for players in their best five consecutive seasons.

     Willie Stargell 170
     Willie McCovey 178
     Mike Schmidt 166
     Dave Winfield 147
     Ryan Howard 141

     THAT’S what a Hall of Fame peak for a first baseman looks like, the top three. The fact that Schmidt did it while winning Gold Gloves at first is why he is truly one of the All Time greats.

     And John, I said selling OUT 80% of their games. If you look at percentage of seats sold as a total, no doubt it would be around 95% or more.

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161. alan it is exactly 100.6% the interesting thing and the reason i brought it up is that only boston and phila. sell over 100%. in both cases every seat is sat in compared to the mets who sell 93% but only 80 – 85 % attend. i know i have season tickets and were packed like sardines in cbp. check mlb attendence .com espn if you want .

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162. At last the T-man is gone. At first I didnt understand why the didnt option Taschner. By leaving him with an option his contract might be picked up but i doubt it. So I quess money was the reason for keeping him on the roster. And no doubt
     he cost them at least 2 or 3 games not just by his lack of performance but by the fact another pitcher would of been on the roster.
     A sad tale made worse by bullheadness. Didnt someone call they are the professionals.

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163. They had nobody better. If they did they could have optioned him to the minors early in the season. The way it looked at the start of the season, he would have been slated to go to minors at the return of Romero. Various injuries and ineffectiveness forced him to remain. I recall no games he lost as he was mostly used in the mop-up role. If they, indeed , had not had Taschner and had another pitcher instead, mostly Madson and/or Lidge would have still been used in the key 8th inning/closer role, and other better pitchers in the 7th and to fill in the key roles. It was the ineffeciveness at times of the key relievers that has cost games.

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164. Indeed. Taschner pitched 21 games for the Phillies, he entered only four of them with the team tied or ahead.

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165. you have to be kidding

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166. ever heard of a trade. Really you are defending a black hole

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167. Alan
     you made my point they didnt trust him.period

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168. At what point was George Sherrill ungettable?? Please go back and read yourselves .

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169. Well it seems I spawned a pretty big debate with my Cain for Howard trade proposal. I don’t feel any need to defend it. It was just my opinion. Absent the repercussion of fan backlash I believe it’s a great deal for both sides.

     I like Howard I think he is great for the MLB and by all accounts he is an outstanding citizen but…

     If he is going to command Texeira type $ in 3 years I am not a player in that arena so I would make the move for Cain who I believe is a true Ace for many years to come.

     And I guess for those of you that scoff at Masterson I’ll just have to take that beating like a man for now. Rest assured I will be around in 2-3 years from now hoping to collect my winnings.

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170. Relevant to this thread, the Blue Jays are willing to listen on Halladay: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4311661

     I voted trade the farm and I would do it for a year and a half of Halladay. Go get him, Ruben!

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171. Everyone would of done the same for Peavy now on the DL.
     I would rather wait.

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172. Rosenthal says Halladay is as good as gone. I have to believe that Drabek, Taylor, Donald and a guy like a Correa would get it done. The only hold up would be the Phillies taking on the money he’s owed.

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173. That’s enough to refloat the Titanic.

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174. actually nowheels i was always against selling the farm for peavey and stated that he would be moving from the best pitchers park to one of the best hitters parks and his era would go up considerably. Halladay is in a dif. class and pitches against yanks, sox and dh’s instead of pitchers. I would do the titantic trade suggested by anonymous but would rather have brown in there instead of taylor

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175. Drabek, Taylor, Donald, *and* Correa?? Moreover…drabek AND taylor??? I hope that’s not what it takes. I’m not sure that’s worth it, especially considering the salary issues that will continue to arise.

     Regarding trading Brown over Taylor…unless the Jays refuse to deal without having Brown included, I highly doubt that will happen. The scouts and org. seem to think he’s something very special, and I doubt they’re going to admit they’re wrong (in rating Brown above Taylor) this early in the game.

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176. I think it would take Drabek, one of Carrasco/Brown/Taylor, one of Donald/Marson/Savery, and one of Kendrick/Carpenter to get it done.

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177. I hear you Marky mark
     Peavy or Halladay is not quite my point. It once you go down that path there is no way to go back and if Halladay gets hurt etc. you are barren. I would rather chance Drabek in the majors because it can be reversed. You would have no surplus infielder, and in my eyes lose the best propect the Phils have had in thirty years. To what beat some hotdogs in this division.
     Would I do it later? hmmm. Ask me at the trade deadline.

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178. Everone is talking that Halladay will be a bigtime winner here.
     Maybe but remember the great Santana has two more wins than Jamie Moyer in the last two years. Simplification sure but true.

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179. We don’t need Halladay to get in contention for a WS again. Last year everyone (including me!) was underwhelmed by the Blanton move, but it did the trick. Most importantly, none of the prospects surrendered were Grade A prospects – some B+ type of guys, but nobody who was the equivalent of Taylor, Drabek, Brown or Knapp – stay away from those guys and I’ll be okay with a deal for a second tier guy. I’d even be okay giving up Carrasco, who will probably be a good ML pitcher one day.

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180. Nowheels are you refering to drabek-“in my eyes lose the best propect the Phils have had in thirty years.” I think most think hammels was the better of the 2. I would hate to lose all this talent but i think it would make us the front runners to win it all this year and next. If someone said you would win it all one of the next 2 years with halladay would you trade drabek, carrasco, taylor, brown and knapp for this guarantee and mortgage the future?

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181. I did mean Taylor . Yeah if the Lord came down and said it ok.
     Mark you know as well as I do baseball is a strange game and
     things do not always work out. I have a problem with the finality of this move.

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182. last year Sabathia was acquired for 1 premium and I believe 2 or 3 non premium prospects. Sabathia(29?) was younger and signed only until the end of the year. While some might think that is a negative it isn’T financially plus the Brewers got 2 #1 draft choices The point I am making is I am not sure the Phillies should give up more talent than the Brewers did. It is hard to believe that Halladay could out pitch Sabathia’s (last year) down the stretch

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183. i mentioned on the other site that their are some teams who have the money and players to get it done for halliday. yankees,red sox,dodgers,cubs,angels,rangers and the phillies. the phillies would have to give up at least drabek,brown,carrasco and marson. the yankees can offer jaba,hughes,jackson and take back wells, contract. does anyone know what other teams have. PLEASE NO MARTINEZ.

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184. Brown and Carrasco and/or Savery is as far as I’m willing to see let go. Drabek and Taylor need to stay put in the organization.

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185. One of the big considerations here is that the Jays have 1.5 years left of Halladay. They are in a position where if they don’t find an appreciable offer, they can say no. I think it would take too much to acquire Halladay to make it a good move for the Phils long term.

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186. On the teams John mentioned, I’d be stunned if the Jays took the PR hit in trading Halladay to a division rival. I doubt the Cubs have the player depth needed to get the deal done. I can see the Angels or Rangers getting involved.

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187. Roy Halladay is unquestionably one of the top 5 aces in the game. You have to make a play for him but you can’t just indiscriminately empty out the farm. Drabek and Taylor should be untouchable. Beyond those two the Phillies should be willing to deal. A combination of Marson or Brown, Carrasco, Donald and one more might get it done. That’s a lot to give up but Halladay is worth it, assuming there’s no unusual injury risk.

     Because so many teams are in the bidding, the price for Halladay is sure to be sky high. Still, a rotation of Hamels, Halladay, Blanton, Happ and Moyer would be good enough for another title run.

     Best case: Phillies win another title. Worst case: Halladay sits on the shelf injured while the prospects blossom into stars for the Jays.

     Without Halladay, though, the odds of winning the WS are just so much lower.

     Go for it!

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188. I might only consider Halladay and Bautista for the bench for Taylor, Carassco, Donald, Savery, Kendrick, and Carpenter. No Brown, Drabek, or Knapp under any reasonable conditions.

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189. As far as I’m concerned, the only untouchable in the system is Drabek. Ideally, you keep him, deal only one of Brown or Taylor (preferably Taylor) and then add whoever else they want.

     The chance to get a pitcher of Halladay’s ability doesn’t come around very often. Phillies can afford to give up 5 legit prospects for him and still have a bunch of other prospects in the system.

     The farm system has never been stronger in the time I’ve followed the team. And I think with the way the current big league club is constructed, winning as many flags as possible over the next 3-4 years should be priority #1

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190. It would be unusal to see a player of that caliber traded within the division. If that is true how many teams have both the financial ability and the prospects to do the deal. I still hate to see the Phillies over pay.

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191. Count me in the camp of selling the farm for Halladay. Face it, we aren’t getting him without 1 of Drabek or Brown.

     But Halladay is about the only guy I’d give up Drabek or Brown for. Hopefully the Phils can make it happen.

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192. i,d give up brown,maybery,carrasco,marson and savery. that would leave us with taylor, drabek, and various others. i agree that trading to a division rival is unlikely. the other farm systems i,m not aware of. cubs,dodgers,angels, and rangers. anyone know if they can offer as much as the phils. i still have a feeling oswalt will be moved for alot less than halliday. taylor is my untouhable.

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193. I’d trade one but not two of the big three. The problem is that I would guess they would want either two of the big three, or one of them plus Happ. And Happ has really converted me – I don’t think he is going to continue to have an ERA around 3.00, but if he can be a solid #3 pitcher, a solid #3 who is cost controlled for several years is immensely valuable. I’d almost be more reluctant to give him up (than one of the top prospects) – especially since that would also come into tension with a “win now” plan, as you still have a hole in the rotation.

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194. I’m sorry, but those who think we’re getting Halladay without giving up any of Drabek/Taylor/Brown/Knapp are delusional.

     The ideal scenario is the Blue Jays are willing to accept a deal built around Taylor and Carrasco. In all honesty, though, Ricciardi is going to ask for Drabek… and if it takes Drabek/Taylor/Donald/Savery, I wince a little bit, pull the trigger, and feel pretty content at the end of the day.

     As the post above talks about, the core of this Phillies team is in its prime now. Pairing Halladay with Hamels at the top of the rotation would make the Phils the team to beat in the NL this year, and probably over the next two seasons. If you can do that, and still have a farm system that includes Brown, Carrasco, Marson, Knapp, et al in your farm system, I don’t see any reason why you don’t.

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195. Do you guys even realize HOW GOOD ROY HALLADAY IS??? First, he pitches in the AL EAST. That division is ridiculous and he has DOMINATED in it. What do you guys honestly think the Phillies record would be if they played in it? My guess is .500. Second, he pitches in the AL in general. Top to bottom the AL is much much superior to the NL. You get Doc and you can bet that every team craps their pants. No one in the NL or really AL for that matter could match up with Cole and Doc. You give up Happ, Drabek and Taylor for him and if they ask for Knapp you give him up too. The point is to win championships and with him they’d be the favorites to at least get there.

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196. Amen Friar.

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197. LarryM: I agree that the Phils can’t give up Happ, nor anyone important from their major league roster (this includes Werth and Victorino, but not Mayberry).

     Catch 22 f/k/a H Man: regarding the Blanton deal, I think you’re falling into the old correlation/causation trap. Blanton ended up being a good move because the organization correctly gambled that Myers would approximate a #2 starter when he returned. That’s not going to happen this year, so if an ace starter is out there, I think the organization has to seriously consider it.

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198. What sense would it make to give up Happ who hasn’t lost.

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199. If it was between Brown and Taylor , I’d keep Taylor mainly because the one thing I see as a need for this line-up is a right handed bat to go between Utley and Howard. He’s currently hitting .365 against right-handed pitching at Reading so he seems to fit the need very well. And as many others feel I’d keep Drabek as well, so a trade starting with Brown and Carassco as the centerpieces and Savery and a lower level prospect added might get it done. Another advantage we might have is that the other top contenders will probably be coming from their own division which I’m sure they would like to avoid.

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200. i wouldnt give up happ besides being the 1st one to champion him, along with nowheels, he,s proven he can do it in the majors. carrasco or drabek hasnt no matter how much drabek is hyped. pf i pretty agree with you except i would deal brown not taylor. pat b. it would be like the d-backs acquiering schilling, except the phils got you know what. anyone know, pp, what the other potential teams have to offer.

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201. It will be Happ Taylor and Donald

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202. You trade Happ if they ask and it’s a deal breaker.

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203. John, I moslty agree with you (surprise), except I think if they won’t do the deal with Brown and insist on Taylor, I think you have to do it.

     As for Happ, I agree with you there also as I said above, though if not including him was a deal breaker … man, that would be a tough call. Happ is not likely to maintain a 3.00 ERA the rest of the way. But I sure would try to find another way to get the deal done.

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204. i wonder if they could fit flande in the deal….he may be overvalued right now and perhaps we could “pass him off” as the number 2 or more likely 3 piece of this deal

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205. If by giving up Happ, you are keeping Carrasco and Drabek then you do it. Honestly, Carpenter, Carrasco, Lopez or even, it pains me to say it, Kendrick could step in and be a good number 5.

     This trade is a playoff rotation trade if Happ is included. You are setting up your post season rotation. Which would be:
     1. Halladay
     2. Hamels
     3. Blanton

     That is a serious rotation and will give teams fits when you start running a three man rotation in the playoffs.

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206. Give up Blanton then

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207. I would. I have a feeling that they would want a higher ceiling pitcher that is under control longer.

     I have a feeling this isn’t going to be US dictating what we will give them, but them TELLING US and us deciding Yes or No. If they want Happ for Various reasons you aren’t going to bait and switch them with Blanton.

     This is ROY HALLADAY.

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208. marson is guaranteed to go if a trade is done. premium position and a good hitter. plus the jays need a catcher badly as they currently start rod barajas. finally, Ricciardi is a moneyball gm and marson is the quintesential money ball catcher. unfortunately, i think that taylor is gone too. i love that guy and think that he will be a stud mlb’er. but he is a great prospect and could bring a lot of value in return. the rest of the trade will be filled with the stutes types.

     i would love to trade carasco or would be tickled if they would value savery enough to take him. but i don’t think so. i would also trade bastardo.

     i would not trade happ (because it kills our current mlb depth and so defeats a key part of the deal) or drabek or knapp. i am more sold on taylor than brown, but i seem to be in the monority on that one.

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209. Yeah exactly. They don’t HAVE to trade him, that’ll be next summer. I can see Ricciardi asking us for Drabek, Taylor, Brown, Marson and Knapp off the bat and then it getting whittled down from there to something like Drabek, Brown, Donald, Naylor and Bastardo (which I would do, the first trade would be tough)

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210. I haven’t read anyone yet who’s seeing this potential deal for Halladay from Toronto’s point of view. They have a couple of lefthanders in their rotation in Romero, Mills, Tallet and just started a rookie lefthander named Rzepcynski. Plus they also have Brett Cecil who’s young and a potential starter. They won’t want Happ, Savery or probably even Bastardo. Alex Rios is their Michael Taylor equivalent so if they want an outfielder – and they should-it would be someone who can challenge Vernon Wells in centerfield. Brown is better suited for that and he bats opposite of Wells so they could platoon him until he establishes himself.
     So, my trade offer would be Carrasco, Brown, Carpenter and Worley for Halladay. If they insist on Drabek instead of Carrasco I take Carpenter and Worley out of the deal and throw in somebody like Cloyd or Correa.
     Taylor fits better in Phils lineup and can replace Ibanez in 2 years.
     My rotation for the next 2 years would have Hamels, Halladay, Blanton, Happ and Moyer/Carrasco ( if they take Drabek- which I think they would).
     We still have tons of pitching in system. Hopefully Knapp continues to develop into a top of the rotation pitcher within the next 2/3 years.

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211. Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ and moyer until Brabek;s ready. We could give up Carrasco, bastardo and savry cause there’s no room for them. SO Id be willing to part with carrasco, bastardo, savery, marson, donald and mayberry with also trhowing in Kendrick, Maybe not all of them but if most of them can get a deal done Id do it in a second.

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212. For Halladay I’d be willing to give up Taylor, Carrasco, Knapp, and Bastardo….even as I’m typing it, it sounds like a lot but we’re talking about arguably the best pitcher in the world….

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213. call me crazy but if youre goin to give up this much id rather go harder at Cain, and possibly give up alittle less.

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214. just dont give up the top tier guys drabek, taylor, knapp, maybe 1 other guy….

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215. Friar:

     No, I don’t think I’m falling into a correlation/causation problem. I think if the team had another decent #3 guy (in my view, Myers has never been a true #2 – he’s so inconsistent that he’s more like a #3 guy) they can, in my view, make another championship run. One of the unknowns to me that might make a difference is how close they believe Drabek is to contributing this year. They say he won’t pitch in the majors this year, but I think they’re open to bringing him up at the end of August so he can take the league by storm. If you see them limiting his innings and pitch counts in late July and August, you should take note.

     Should they consider a trade for another starter? Absolutely. The question is: what is a fair price and who would suffice? Would Halladay give us a better chance to win than almost any other guy on the market? Sure he would. It just seems that the price others would want for him would be too high for my tastes. But championships are championships, so I respect that others may disagree with me on this point.

     A couple of points to keep in mind. First, I think the Boston model of generally keeping your best young players works – if they trade too many of their top young prospects for experience, this model will never work. Second, acquire expensive talent in the off-season. You may lose a first round draft pick, but you won’t have to trade away the entire farm.

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216. hey Catch 22 f/k/a H Man – boston traded hanley ramirez, one of the top 2-3 position players in the game for a top of the rotation start and what most people thought was a bad contract in lowell. what are you referring to with the “boston model”?

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217. The Blue Jays had a scout at CBP tonight, who do you think they were scouting-Happ. They want to start with him, considering he’s a (somewhat) proven ML pitcher and cheap and controllable. You package him with Taylor and Donald and or Savery and you get (arguably) the best pitcher in baseball, who has a 5-1 K/BB ration and gives up less than a hit an inning.

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218. I totally agree with you phillyfriar, You gotta give up something to get something. Drabek is the centerpiece of the deal, but you are gonna need to give up taylor as well. I don’t feel we have to throw in donald or marson, a lower tier prospect like carpenter or kendrick and another player are more than likely will be enough to do it. They will need atleast 1 of those guys to replace halladay and kendrick/carpenter have some mlb experience. There is no way CC is enough for them unless our boy ed wade is making the decisions. I wonder if pat gillick’s cell phone is exploding from all the calls rube is making to him, I really hope so. I think this guy is the best pitcher in baseball, gotta go after him hard. Good point by joe about the Hamels, Halladay, Blanton 3 man rotation, thats gonna be tough to beat in the playoffs. I don’t think any of the NL teams have enough offense to stop these 3 starters, now if only someone would smack lidge in the back of the head and wake his butt up, its gettin ridiculous.

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219. What if Toronto wants to package V. Wells along with Halliday to rid themselves of salary? Do the Phils do that?

     Would you give up Victorino, Drabek, Taylor, and Happ to get Halladay and Wells?

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220. You aren’t giving up Victorino, Happ and Drabek. That’s a tad much. You probably are going to give up LESS if you are getting Wells in the deal and they aren’t eating most of his Salary.

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221. you don’t have to give up that much if you’re taking on salary. Vic is atleast comparable to wells and probably 10 mil cheaper. That’s worth a lot! vic,happ, marson and essentially about 10 mil. would get it done. Not to mention they would shed 15.5 from halladay.

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222. EZE i’ve been mentioning cain for a while now but it appears he is a 2nd ace for the giants and we can no longer steal him I believe now he would cost as much in prospects as halladay because although not the stud halladay is, he is controllable for several more years and is even more affordable by far. This would be very attractive to many teams. I’d trade werth, happ, carrasco, donald and take on the salary for rowand to fill werths spot. this would give them a 3, a future 3, a ss, a power bat they desperately need and about 3 mil in the pocket. we would now have 2 aces and be the favorites to win it all!

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223. Halladay is the only pitcher I’d consider moving Drabek or Taylor for.

     If they included Happ in any deal, would we then be counting on Rodrigo Lopez and Jamie Moyer to be our 4/5 for the rest of the year? That’s a bit scary. I think if you move Happ you need to see about someone like Jason ‘Grand’ Marquis for the fifth starter’s spot.

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224. After long thought, I am ok with making a big move, but only the right move and only for Halladay.

     It seems to me that Victorino and Werth may be around for a while, so if they can make the right choice about whom to keep–Taylor or Brown–I am ok with making the other the centerpiece of a deal.

     Taylor/Brown + Carrasco + Donald/Marson is a package I’d part with. Not interested in moving J.A. Happ–he’s lefthanded, young, cheap and has proven he is an effective big league starter. Not interested in moving Drabek–potential #1s are too rare.

     I think the chance to get THE GUY is worth taking…but they better keep the right OF…

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225. Right now a closer who closes might be a more important
     target.

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226. I was thinking about it, and even though I love Drabek and the idea of keeping him here is amazing… What is he going to be? The next Schilling? The next great pitcher in Philadelphia that we couldn’t keep because we weren’t competitive? I really don’t see us being that competitive in 3-4 years. Whats the best upside for Drabek? Is he going to be as good as Halladay is now? Probably not. I think because of that Drabek isn’t untouchable. We’re talking about the greatest pitcher in the majors for [probably the next three years. I would happily sign Halladay for an extention keep him around till 12 and then collect our picks. I think thats why no one is untouchable.

     Think about this, we trade three to four unknowns for one known commodity.

     We later get two unknowns. Thats a great deal to me.

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227. btw rick wise guys post was right on. were going to have to keep an outfielder brown or taylor. to me it,s a strong taylor. we cannot trade happ thats partially defeating the deal. therefore toronto can have brown, drabek, carrasco and marson. 2 pitchers, a catcher, and an outfielder. if they wont take that tell them to go to hell. see how fast they say yes. pitchers are the easiest minor leagers to deal, you REALLY have less of an idea how good they will be. btw pat burrells post way up was true do we realize how good halliday is? i have a feeling that he will be a phillie. besides the package, and i want no wells or anyone else from them, we have surprise their former g.m. pat.i have a feeling he still wields alot of influence.

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228. pp do you have the current rankings of ba or bp phillies top 10 prospects?

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229. BA only does team lists at the end of the year. They don’t keep a running tab.

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230. do they give any hints as to who they think are top 10 in order? i mean can you guess by their comments? btw it,s great to see taylor made the mid-season all star team of all minors. one of the best 15 minor,all levels,leagers in all of bb. i would guess he,s replaced brown as number 1. my guess list. taylor,brown, drabek,carrasco,marson,knapp,donald,savery,worley cloyd,stutes,flande carpenter who i would put much higher.

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231. Who says the Jays will give up Halladay for anything less than 3 top prospects? Does anybody understand their real motivation here? Is it to free up salary?? Are they really counting themselves out at this point, or just seeing who will make a ridiculous offer? (playing devil’s advocate here…)

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232. Catch 22 f/k/a H Man:

     What you’re saying makes sense. I’m loathe to surrender prospects in general, but I see this as the perfect confluence of circumstances — the club needs a top-tier starter, they’re the bidder that makes the most sense for a Top 3 starter in the game, and they have enough talent in the system to get him without stripping the system bare. Sure, it would suck if Drabek and Taylor became stars, but they’re certainly not sure things: some scouts still see Drabek in the bullpen, and while I really do believe in Taylor, you only have to look at Marlon Byrd’s Age 23 season in Reading (.318/.386/.555, 32-for-37 in steals, 28 HRs, and a 52:93 K:BB) to realize that even Taylor is no sure thing.

     Oh, and for what it’s worth, I’m with you on Myers being a #3. The organization clearly saw him as a #2 though, and he actually rewarded their faith with an excellent second half. Not that I’m complaining!

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233. nothing to lose but money Pedro
     http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4312099

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234. For those that won’t include Happ in the deal, I ask why not? He isn’t going to pitch in the playoffs (4-man rotation of Hamels, Halladay, Blanton, Moyer) and you’re going to get to the playoffs without him. If Happ is what Toronto wants, then Happ is what Toronto shall have, especially if we can somehow keep Drabek out of the deal. Bastardo won’t be in the deal since he’s hurt and his value could not be any lower. So, if the Phillies were able to get Halladay for:

     Happ, one of Brown/Taylor, and two of Marson/Carrasco/Donald I would be elated. Just for giggles, that would make the Phils 2010 rotation look like this:

     Hamels
     Halladay
     Blanton
     Moyer
     Drabek

     At issue though is that I doubt Toronto would want Happ in the deal. As somebody stated above, they already have a plethora of near major-league ready lefties. From a Phillies perspective, it makes sense to deal him.

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235. On Martinez…the Phillies already have one very old pitcher who is lucky to make it through the sixth inning. They don’t need another one.

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236. I believe if they were able to move Vernon Wells they would not trade Halladay. And how much salary do you think they would take on? Another 30 million , or so , would put them around $160 million payroll. They might be getting close to luxury tax with that.

     The Jays will likely have Wells and Alex Rios in CFand RF, and pulling alot of money next season, and that is part of the thought of trading Halladay. They will want a top OF talent and cheap for awhile, to fill the 3rd OF spot. They will not wait 3 years for a CF to challenge Wells. I say Taylor, being in the awkward age group of what Phillies have and how long the MLB guys will continue and younger prospects coming behind him, will be one. Marson and Donald , also, for Blue Jays positional wishes. Then would likely require a RHP of potential starting calibre, and I would think given the quality of Halladay that would be Drabek. Another prospect should be added, and , again, given the quality of return, and the likely intense competition, I would say, Carrasco. Should Toronto decide to accept, that is the package they could likely pull. To even out the organizational numbers a bit, Toronto could include one of their middle relief RHP’s, I say Brandon League.

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237. One thing to remember. We have potentially 5 top 50 prospects in baseball in Drabek, Carrasco, Taylor, Brown, and Knapp. A lot of these deals for aces get done for a top 10-20 guy, and them a few guys in 75-150 range. Brown, Taylor and Drabek are 15-30 guys. Let them pick one of them, and then two of Carrasco, Marson, Donald, Bastardo, Worley, and then 1 or 2 of Savery, Carpenter, d’Arnaud, Flande.

     We shouldn’t have to give up more than that.

     From an Organizational depth perspective, we’re hoping they take one of the outfielders.

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238. Olney says Happ, Drabek and Donald gets it done.

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239. I think the best thing that we could do to help Toronto would be to take Vernon Wells and his terrible contract off their hands. I’d offer Knapp, Taylor, Marson and Victorino for Halladay & Wells.

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240. I’ll trade the entire farm with the exception of Taylor and Draybek…. anyone they want, 5 of our top 10? Fine. Done, just not those two and gimmie a Cain, or a Lee, or a Halladay.

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241. I think this is going to get done I just hope whatever they do doesn’t include both Drabek and Carrasco, or Drabek and Taylor.

     The Vernon Wells option is intriguing but if you look at the backend of that contract it’s insane and would handcuff the organization for years. I believe there are 7 years left on that deal for production that is not significantly better than Victorino’s.

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242. Here is my thought process on this whole thing a good system for any team should be to win a world series or two with every generation of young players(Howard, Hamels, Utley) mixed with players left over from the last generation(Burrell, Rollins, Myers). With this in mind, we have a good if not great opportunity to make this happen. With Drabek, Taylor, Brown and Knapp mixed with leftovers Utley, Hamels, Howard, and Rollins. This is how dynasties are constructed. Look at the mid-90’s yanks(Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Pettitte mixed with Tino, O’neill…etc.) We just won a WS with this team and added a great quality bat in Ibanez…yes we lost Myers, but just replace him with 2nd Tier starter….PLEASE DON’T SPEND THE FARM!!

     It’s the first time in years that we have this type of talent down there…possibly the first time in our 130 year history!!!

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243. Anyone other than Knapp, Drabeck, or Brown.
     Carrasco, Taylor, Savery and another prospect should be able to get it done.
     But i’d try like hell to not give up Taylor….

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244. Let’s not lose sight of the fact that Drabek has already had Tommy John surgery. Sure it looks like he’s come back from it, but only 120 or so innings into his rehab. If you look at all the guys in the majors that have had TJ surgery, how many have come back to be *great* pitchers?

     If I were Reuben, I’d throw Werth for Rios into the pot. You’re trading about equal parts. But Werth would give them a short contract that could land 2 draft picks, at the same time Halladay would have in FA, while shedding $50mil from 2011-2014.

     The Jays best two young OFs are left handed (Lind & Snider) so Taylor makes more sense than Brown.

     So my trade would be: Halladay & Rios for Werth, Taylor, Carrasco, Donald and Correa/Knapp. If you need to sub in Drabek for Carrasco, so be it.

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245. The farm is there for a reason and prospects are called prospects because they are just that, prospective. The could be what the talent should dictate, but it isn’t 100%.

     Roy Halladay is, by most accounts, the best pitcher in baseball. I don’t want to give up too much, but you give up what you NEEEEEEEEEEEED to give up to get a player like that if you want him.

     There is nothing written that our prospects will ever amount to anything. Whether or not they come up and pull a Gavin Floyd or a Cole Hamels.

     We have a major opportunity to repeat this year. We have to do whatever it takes because we are here to WIN. If Roy is willing to waive his no trade to come to our beloved city then we give up what is necessary.

     Obviously I say this believing that it wouldn’t take 2/3 untouchables to get him. There is a difference between doing what you can to put yourself over the top and completely raping yourself of the past 3 years of hard work.

     One of Taylor/Brown and Carrasco would be fine in my book. I’d rather give up Brown even though his ceiling is apparently higher. I believe Donald will be a part of any deal because of their IF need. I am only going off of what I read and I don’t think that we are going to have to rape our system for him.

     We would probably lose either Drabek or Carrasco and even though we all want Drabek here forever and ever, if he ever scratches what Halladay has then we would be happy.

     Drabek, Donald and other(s) for Halladay would be fine, if not a little bitter sweet in my book.

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246. Hewitt homered !!!!! Hewitt Homered !!!!!! I am in shock..he is up to .186..Is he turning the corner ????????????

     Just thought you guys would be interested

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247. If Olney is right I’d be surprised that Drabek, Happ and Donald is enough. Could we exchange Carrasco for Happ so we aren’t stealing from Peter to pay Paul?

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248. Let’s not forget that 4-5 years ago…Drabek, Taylor and Brown had the names…Utley, Howard and Hamels. I want halladay too, but I think Carrasco, Taylor, Savery, Donald and Flande should be enough. If they want Brown instead of Taylor, knock your socks off, you aren’t getting both and he has a no-trade clause does Halladay and reports have been that he will want a nice extension to be included in any deal, so teams like the Brewers, Rangers, and maybe even the Dodgers might not be playing ball in this.

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249. In their last four games Happ has pitched more innings and given up less runs than Halladay. What is the sense in trading Happ. Halladay would face the same problems Happ does.
     No closer and a manager more intent on making friends then managing. (Eyre or Romero should of faced Votto)(Bruntlett should of pinch ran and save Mayberry to PH)
     Maybe I am wrong for putting this here but watching Bruntlett end the game was too much and
     Now you want to trade Happ.

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250. from MLBtrade rumors Wed Halladay update:

     “One Phillies person told Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer the team’s serious about pursuing Halladay. ”

     “One scout told Salisbury Halladay’s the best pitcher in baseball, good enough to win 27 games in the NL. Another scout expects Doc to end up with the Red Sox or Angels.”

     “Scott Lauber of the News Journal believes Ruben Amaro Jr. needs to strike a deal for Halladay. ”

     “Joel Sherman of the New York Post believes the Jays missed their chance to deal Halladay last year, when money flowed more freely and before teams clung onto their prospects as tightly.”

     “A friend of Halladay’s told Jon Heyman of SI.com that Doc would likely approve trades to Boston, New York or Philadelphia.”

     “Pete Abraham of the Journal News says J.P. Ricciardi played it “exactly right” yesterday, building hype about Halladay by telling everyone he could be available.”

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251. Jon Heyman tweets that Halladay would approve a trade to Philly.

     I’m all for Halladay – only untouchable is Drabek. I’d offer a combo of Happ-Carrasco-Taylor-or-Brown-Donald-or-Marson.

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252. PP Fan – The Hanley Ramirez trade was a strategic value-for-value trade, not a value for need trade like most deadline deals are structured. The Marlins got a stud, young shortstop. The Red Sox got a young ace who will anchor their rotation for 10 years.

     It would be like the Phillies trading Michael Taylor for Justin Verlander. I’d do that deal in a heartbeat – that’s not the type of trade we’re talking about here.

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253. Nowheels, come on. Are you saying that we are better off with Happ than with Halladay? Please think about your statement.

     People have to realize that we wouldn’t be getting Halladay because we think we will miss the playoffs. The raeson to get a Halladay would be to get a close to lights out starter for the playoffs. We could go into it like last year and hope for the best from the Blantons and Moyers, but most teams that win the series usually have 1s and 2s getting most of the innings out of the way for them.

     I was a MAJOR Charlie doubter, but how you can still hate on the guy after he got us what we have longed for for so long is beyond me. I really do not understand where some people come from.

     Richie Says:
     July 8, 2009 at 9:53 am

     Let’s not forget that 4-5 years ago…Drabek, Taylor and Brown had the names…Utley, Howard and Hamels. I want halladay too, but I think Carrasco, Taylor, Savery, Donald and Flande should be enough.

     (Who is to say that Carrasco isn’t Hamels and Drabek will be a Floyd? We are making very broad assumptions here by comparing our 3 current stars with players that may not be able to pitch or hit consistently in the bigs. I like Drabek as much as the next guy and believe he has ACE stuff, but come on. Let’s not skew our arguments to fit our opinions)

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254. Happ, Savery, Carrasco and Donald – It would be a steep price, but I’d pay that to get Halladay.

     As I view it, baseball talent is a pyramid. there are only a few jewels at the top. You are way better off giving up multiple good prospects, even guys you know will be solid major leauge regulars, than you are giving up even one crown jewel. Our problem is that I believe that the Jays’ GM understands this. Ed Wade never figured this out and that’s why he traded Curt Schilling for a bag of bolts (oh, you tell me there were human players included in that deal? Wow, I stand corrected). A couple of decades earlier, the Mets made the same mistake with Tom Seaver – a bunch of good prospects (5 of them – Pat Zachary, Doug Flynn, Steve Henderson, Dan Norman and someone else I can’t remember – all household names, eh?) – many of whom became regulars, none of whom became a star, and none of whom the Reds ever missed.

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255. If we want any chance of keeping Drabek Happ has to be going the other way. Maybe a deal of Happ, Carrasco, Brown/Taylor, Donald, Knapp gets it done. To be honest, its just difficult to see a plausible deal getting done without Drabek. Riccardi doesn’t have to move him this year and I think he will be content to hear offers and bite only if he is blown away.

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256. Maybe we can get Halladay on a steal much like how the Mets gave up a lot less than the Yankees and Red Sox to acquire Santana. Twins didn’t want Santana in their league. How can the Blue Jays want Halladay in their own DIVISION? I think that takes BOS and NYY out.

     Angels are a longer shot for the same reason.

     Not saying that Halladay can’t go to an AL team, just saying that the Phillies wouldn’t have to offer as much for him. Then who else in the NL can offer as much prospects for him?

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257. You know, Happ, Savery, Carrasco and Donald would be a pretty damned good haul for the Blue Jays, particularly if they think they already have some young stars in the rotation. I could even live with substituting Brown for Donald. But, for me, Taylor, Drabek and Knapp are untouchable. Period.

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258. Pitching has become the coin of the realm, so the key is not to trade your most valuable pitching prospects. Having said that, it is not so simple to figure out the value of our best prospects. Will Happ continue his great pitching or will the hitters soon catch up to him and his 91 mph fastball? Is Drabek a future ace or another arm surgery waiting to happen? Will Carrasco every be able to utilize his talent consistently? Will Knapp be a top pitcher or just another guy who can throw over 95 mph? It is fun to speculate on trades, but hopefully, the Phillies front office knows the real potential value of our prospects. They will have to evaluate this value and compare it with the actual value of Roy Halladay who is probably the best fit for the Phillies staff in all of baseball.

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259. i know generally it doesn’t work this way but who wouldn’t be willing to trade 6 or 7 of our top prospects not named brown, drabek, taylor, and no happ in the deal. the package would look like this knapp-carrasco, donald, marson, worley, savery and if they insisted flande. I would prefer this to 2/3 of our untouchables and a couple of top 10’s or including any of happ, werth, or vict.

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260. I think Carrasco is a gigantic tease. He may end up being a good ML pitcher, but it will probably be 3 or 4 years from now and, even then, he’ll probalby never be an ace. So, I can live without him.

     Drabek and Knapp are probably the only guys in the system that are likely to be at the top of the rotation. Some guys might develop into that type of pitcher, but they don’t project as such now (I can’t guess on Shreve or Cosart, they are just too far removed and there’s no track record, even a short one).

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261. If we actually sit down and weigh the positive and negatives of a potential Halladay move it seems to me that the main positive is that we would be getting the best pitcher to pitch in a Phillies uniform in a very, VERY long time. He also isn’t like a Peavy who may have trouble with our park. Just look at his scouting report.

     “Over the past several seasons, Roy Halladay adjusted his approach to that of a ground ball pitcher with a good strikeout-to-walk ratio. This approach helped to keep his pitch count down (he regularly features among the league leaders in this category) so as to avoid fatigue later in the season. Nevertheless, he threw over 200 strikeouts in the 2008 season and ranked amongst AL leaders in that category, along with Ervin Santana and former teammate A.J. Burnett. Halladay’s arsenal includes a four-seam fastball which he can throw in the mid 90s, a two-seam (sinking) fastball which he throws at 92-94 MPH, a curveball which he throws around 77 MPH, a cutter which he throws at 90-92 MPH, and a changeup, which he added in 2006.[8] He generally can use any of these pitches in any count, which serves to make him even more effective and keeps hitters off pace.”

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262. From the various sites and blogs around I don’t see why trading for Rios or Wells AND Halladay would be a bad idea.

     By trading Halladay the Jays would be rebuilding. They have Romero. They could use more money freed up in Wells/Rios.

     Why wouldn’t a Taylor/Carrasco/Werth/Donald/1 of Marson/D’Arnaud/Knapp and 1 of Valle/Correa/Flande for Rios/Halladay work?

     That would be $3 million for Rios this yr and $7 for Halladay. That’s only $10 Million towards the cap this yr. Granted that’s alot, and I assume probably double what they want to spend. But it does seem very fair on each end. The Jays would be getting 1 huge contract off their payroll and nice righty bat. I have faith in Carrasco being a 3/4 pitcher in the AL East. Werth=Rios. Plus the Jays can start immediately rebuilding because we are takin gon a huge contract in Rios.

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263. Happ is, no pun intended, going to make some GM very happy for many years. He’s the type of secondary guy who wins 14-17 games a year. Very, very , very valuable, particularly because he is left-handed. We haven’t had a guy like Happ since Randy Wolf and the team spent a lot of time trying to get Wolf back because they know just how much a player like that is worth to a good-hitting team.

     This is not to say that Happ is an untouchable – just that he is valuable, useful and I expect that he is going to have a lot of staying power. They should feel good about develping him as a prospect – they brought him along very nicely, even if there was a bump this spring.

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264. I’m, as you can tell, doing a bit of research on Halladay. I found this on his wiki page.
     ——————————
     In an interview with Politico.com, then President George W. Bush also claimed that, if given the choice of one pitcher and one position player with which to build a team, he would pick Roy Halladay and Chase Utley: “Roy Halladay from the Toronto Blue Jays is a great pitcher. He’s a steady guy, he burns up innings.”

     -Now Bush isn’t my favorite person in the world, but that is pretty darn funny that he brought up Chase as one of the two players he would build his team around.

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265. If Santana could not save the Mets,why would you think
     Halladay will save us. I have seen this so many times in sports, the dream . Somehow it rarely works out.
     Happ stays

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266. I’m willing to top any offer for Halladay, and I think the Phillies can do that.

     YThey can pick from the following:
     Happ, Carrasco, Savery, Worley, Stutes (2 from this list)
     Taylor, Marson, Donald

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267. I think BOS and NYY are not likely destinations for Halladay – PR nightmare for TOR. This should bring his trade value down some. And the Toronto payroll (Wells deal is painful and enduring) adds some pressure on Ricciardi to get some relief. I think Halladay will be moved for the best offer from a non-BOS/NYY team. This all bodes well for the Phillies to make them an offer they’ll accept.

     TOR can pick from the following:
     1. Happ, Carrasco, Savery, Worley, Stutes, Flande (2 from this list)
     2. Taylor, Marson, Donald, Galvis (2 from this list)

     Also, I think Peavy and Bedard are worth more than Cliff Lee; but all 3 are worth considerbaly less than Halladay. And if Dan Haren becomes available, he is above Peavy on my list. I’d gladly fallback on any of these pitchers, and offer less.

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268. And we don’t need saving. You are one negative cat. Maybe because the Phillies have heart and the Mets don’t. Hamels and Doc > anything Mets put out there.

     Our dream already came true last year. We have our core all tied up for at least the next three years and Halladay would upgrade our starting rotation.

     I don’t think it’s that hard to comprehend. You are talking about keeping a rookie starter who may turn out to be a solid #3 instead of a guy whose career wins double his career losses and is a bullpen’s best friend.

     Because of Myers potential exit next year Halladay could become his long term replacement. I don’t think he would be a short term acquisition. Obviously we don’t know if he would sign a long term contract here, but we won’t do any better with our porpsects.

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269. I can’t see making Happ a deal breaker in the Halladay deal. If we replace Happ with Halladay, we have a better rotation, plain and simple. We have to remember that Halladay pitches in the American League, so his ERA of 2.79 would probably be close to 2.0 in the National League, quite a bit better even than Happ’s 3.04. I think that Halladay would have held that lead last night. Lopez will probably be an adequate fifth starter in that rotation and if not, there are still minor league options such as Carpenter, Carrasco, and Kendrick.

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270. I love Roy Halladay and could live with giving up either Taylor or Brown, along with guys like Carrasco, Donald, Marson, etc. I don’t want to give up Drabek and Knapp. I believe Knapp is your future closer and Drabek a top of the rotation guy. Giving up Happ would open a spot in the current rotation, while adding a guy. So, if he were included, you would be committing to bringing up either Drabek or Carrasco. One would think the Jays would take a little less from us than give Halladay to the Yanks or Red Sox and have to face him for the next 5 years!!!

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271. ill say it again no happ he,s been up a year and proven it in the bigs. drabek hasnt. if you cant get halliday for say brown,carrasco,drabek and if need be somebody else your being taken. no happ no taylor,especially with the possible recurring groin problems of ibanez. we need a mlb ready of,er, not mayberry in case ibanez goes down. no happ, no taylor. anybody else yes. no wells 24 million in 2 years no rios 15 million and going up for 5 years. we dont need them and were not santa claus. playoff rotation. halliday,hamels,blanton,happ. no moyer.

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272. Do people think Happ can be like a Andy Pettite type?

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273. Just in case people think i don’t value our prospects because my offer loads for halladay seem a little heavier than most, it is only because i value halladay so much! here is a diliniation of how i value potential trades.

     Meche-carrasco, marson, donald,
     peavy-carrasco, marson, donald, bastardo
     haren-carrsaco, marson, donald, bastardo, brown, savery
     halladay-carrasco, marson, donald, bastardo,brown, drabek

     it’s not that i think we would need to trade this much to get halladay, it’s just what i would be reluctantly willing to do for his services.

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274. i would offer Carpenter, Donald, mayberry, Kendrick, and escalona. i wouldnt mind maybe putting in Carrasco or Marson instead of two of those guys , its better to give 5 good prospects rather then a package centered around Drabek, Brown, or a guy like Taylor . I would make them untouchable

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275. max, you’re on drugs.

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276. SIFPA
     you say the rotation will be better taking out a guy who has not lost and is improving. Even then you still have the same hole and are out tons of cash and key prospects. Excuse me
     that is not logical even a little. If you are talking postseason who knows. First you have to win and starting pitching isnt the problem

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277. The curt schilling trade still makes me puke, but this is roy halladay, why do people think CC is enough? If i were the toronto GM there is no way i give away the best pitcher in baseball for a guy who may not even be a #2. Don’t get me wrong i would love to keep drabek but seriously riccardi isn’t stupid and i hope that rube can do this deal, it was nice knowing you drabek. Good point by gary no way he goes in their division unless they get half of bos or nyy’s team.

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278. marky mark
     Meche-carrasco, marson, donald,
     I caught Meche on the TV to say I was unimpressed would be an understatement. His breaking pitch went out three times faster then it came in. No way Jose!
     Peavy has health problems of cource

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279. This is nerve wracking and this board totally blew up, obviously a sensitive situation neh…. I wish the trade deadline was tomarrow so we could just know what happened!

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280. marky mark your packages seem very reasonable. and ive always said happ reminds me of pettite without the move. BTW HAS EVERYONE SEEN THAT TAYLOR MADE THE ALL MINOR LEAGUE ALL STAR TEAM. ONE OF 15 PLAYERS IN EVERY LEVEL OF THE MINORS COMBINED.

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281. A factor in this equation is the current economy and how it effects all team’s decisions (i.e. Mets owner was stung by Madoff fraud; Phillies are one of the few teams selling out).

     I keep hearing how there are only buyers out there (e.g. no sellers at this point), and I’m not buying it one bit. When it gets down to it, I think the Philliers are one of the few teams willing/permitted to take on salary. When you extract BOS and NYY from that pool, the pool gets even smaller. From this remaining pool, who has the talent to attract TOR (or another club with a desirable starter)?

     I expect that Gillick, Looper, Amaro, etc. are meeting daily and sizing the market up. I think you have a real chance to steal a player this year! Let’s hope that it’s Halladay. But if not him, someone out there will be gettable for the Phillies.

     My confidence is growing as I type that the Phillies will land a #1 or #2 pitcher and that it will cost less talent than is currently being floated by the expected sellers…

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282. You give up two blue chip prospects. The conversation should go like this by Rube, ” Hey J.P. you want a major league ready pitcher, Drabek OR Happ, pick one, and a Top fielding prospect, Brown or Taylor, pick one, you need infield help next year take Donald, and we’ll throw in Savery, Stutes, Worley, Or Flande for good measure. That is it. End of story.

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283. Does anybofy know the Phillies long range plans? I always liked what Theo Epstein said the Red Sox goal is: “Make the playoffs 7 or 8 times every 10 years and win 2 or 3 World Series. Retool constantly and, most important, try to get younger.”

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284. Ice-9
     YOU are one of the few who has a grip. Last year they vastly overpaid for Blanton and took Millions of dollars off the books for the A’s. Lets not get robbed again.
     And for god’s sake get a closer and a catcher.

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285. Rent Pedro for 3 months , and hope for the best,next year Drabek will be in our rotation not someone else’s

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286. Nowheels – how did they get robbed last yr?

     While I think Cardeanas was alot and will be good if
     anything the trade was fair.
     Outman may need TJ. Spencer is may not even be in the top 5 OF prospects we have. Cardeanas was the trade and straight up for Blanton even is totally fair.

     Blanton makes less than $6 million this yr and made less than $3 million ,after the trade that is.

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287. Nowheels, Happ for Halliday is a number 3 for a number 1. What is not logical is refusing to recognize that. In addition, you have to look at the numbers carefully. Happ has been very good, but let’s be reasonable. Since Happ began starting, his ERA has climbed from 2.49 to 3.04. His record is 3-0 in those games, but the team’s record is only 4-5. No doubt this has something to do with the bullpen problems, but that is one reason why we need a pitcher who can go deeper into games. Halladay is averaging over 7 innings per start, even including the game that he got hurt and only pitched 3 innings. He is 10-2 with a mediocre team. The team is 10-6 in his starts.The issue of cash is irrelevant as it is only 7 million or so this year and by next year a lot of people will come off the payroll. Prospects are unproven and this team is built to win this year and next. I am not going to worry about the fifth starter as this team with Halladay is a cinch to make the post-season, given the other teams in their Division and the fifth starter is irrelevant in post-season.
     Nowheels, until the last six games, starting pitching has been very much the problem. Hamels has not pitched like an ace (yes, I know that he did win the 22-1 game) this year and statistically the starting pitching has one of the worst in the league. Hamels is 5-5, Moyer 6-5, Blanton 5-4 and the team has a losing record in Happ’s starts. The rotation needs someone that can win at least two-thirds of his starts and Halladay can do that and has done that.

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288. nowheels…starting pitching is the problem on this team. They are 13/16 NL teams in runs allowed per game. They are 1/16 in the NL (and 3/30 in ML) in runs scored per game. It doesn’t matter how many you score if you can’t stop the other team from doing the same. Do you honestly believe that putting Halladay in this rotation and removing Happ is not an improvement? Happ may continue to improve, he may not. He may turn into Andy Pettite and be successful for many years, or he may turn into Kyle Kendrick and start to get blown up his second time around. We don’t know. Halladay has a pretty decent track record and has been pretty consistent for a long time.

     As I said before, Happ won’t even be in the post-season rotation if the Phillies land Halladay, so IF the Jays want him in a deal (and I say IF), then by all means include him!

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289. Look at Toronto’s catcher. They have to want Marson in any deal. With HAlladay Hamels Blanton Happ and Moyer set for this year and next wqe can give up Drabek and Carrasco. Donald can also be traded and we can afford to lose either Taylor or Brown. Sure we dont give all of them but most them works for both teams. We’d still have a good system with Halladay pitching with the big club and Toronto gets peices they need. If they want a young outfielder maybe they take MAyberry and we bring up Taylor to replace his bat

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290. I will say this one more time then I am out. Trade Happ for Holladay and you still have the same holes.
     1. 11 blown saves betweed Lidge and Madson
     2. and none of you will like this a catcher who calls a lousy game e.g. Edwin Encarnacion took a curve for a strike Ruiz never called a curve again even when the batter hit everything else. Bastardo is said to throw all fastballs. As a vet Ruiz should of helped him at least show a breaking ball.
     3.This is the worse bench in baseball excluding Dobbs. Who among you thought that Bruntlett would extend the game last night. Fess up no one.
     Halladay is great but use your resources and you are boxed in even if Halladay works out

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291. Very true, nowheels. This team blows.

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292. why not ask for a rp back from jays they have a few good ones and we are going 2 have to give a lot for holliday anyway so we maybe able to get a decent rp out of them and that helps the pen and roataion and if we have to give a little more to get a rp its worth it becuase we are giving a lot for halladay so y not go all out and get one of there rp to

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293. i mean halladay

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294. I want no part of Vernon Wells as a thrown in player. He is owed 20+ million in each of his last four years of the contract. Unless Toronto is willing to pay part or most of that. Stay away!

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295. There is a trickle down effect. If you have better starting pitching, you use your bullpen less and it is more effective. You might even be able to carry one less pitcher and one more bench player. I find it strange that suddenly Ruiz, of World Series fame, is lousy at calling a game and that the only decent bench player is Dobbs (I thought Stairs was doing a pretty good job). It is fine to complain about Bruntlett, but you have to have a backup middle infielder on your bench who can play shortstop, whether he hits or not. Also, if you get better pitching, his hitting is less important. If Happ doesn’t blow the lead, Bruntlett doesn’t bat.

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296. Just a quick question. The Blue Jays have Alex Rios signed until 2014 on a big time deal, along with a big time deal with Vernon Wells in Center. Because of this wouldn’t that excluse having both Brown and Taylor/Mayberry included and would only be one of them since those two contracts are currently immovable?

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297. And coming into this season, CC was rated #1 by basically everyone, except BA i believe? Why is everyone so easy to get rid of him in a trade situation? He still has an electric arm, and is 22 years old. I would try and hold onto him and not sell so low as a throw in. He has so serious talent that didn’t disappear in 6 months.

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298. SIFPA
     You made my point you need better bench players not guys looking up at Mendoza. I never bought into Ruiz since Happ’s first start. He should of had Happ knock down the second hitter after Reyes put on a big show. That’s what a catcher does leads his pitcher. Like he didn’t do to Bastardo now he is back hitting like a black hole.
     PLAINLY
     RUIZ STINKS
     BRUNTLETT STINKS
     COSTE CANT CATCH
     BAKO IS BAKO
     Lidge cant save himself
     neither can Madson
     That is your roster so forget Halladay and get players
     and dont make excuses for them
     This is the Major Leagues not Charlie’s Angels

     You are Blaming Happ for going seven innings are you kidding?????????????????????????

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299. Section 113 – not sure if you saw my post earlier, but you reitterated my point with the Werth for Rios. JP said in the interview that he’d want to be able to replace the 2 (good) draft picks plus get 3-4 other players/prospects. Werth would do that if they didn’t want to keep him.

     I love prospects as much as the next guy, but for all we know Drabek=Floyd, Taylor=Byrd, and Happ=Kendrick (thanks to whoever mentioned this above). Roy Halladay has been getting it done for 7 years in the majors and shows no signs of slowing down. SELL THE FARM!

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300. I think it’s silly to conclude that all prospects are roughly equivalent. I mean, three years ago, someone could have written in that Hamels was Kyle Abbott – that makes no sense.

     There is every reason to believe that Drabek is a much better prospect than Floyd, that Taylor is superior to Byrd and Happ is, already, a lot better than Kendrick. All prospects are not the same.

     Nowheels makes a damned good point about the bench and other holes. If the team signs Pedro M. and uses second tier prospects to shore up other holes, they may will be a lot of progress right there. Don’t laugh it off, this team now has a nice track record of getting good component parts (Lohse, Moyer, Eyre . . .) for second tier prospects. I am all for trading Mayberry for a good bench guy. Maybe by late July, Nomar won’t mind the idea of coming to Philly – they could sure as hell use him. I can’t stand watching Bruntlett hit in critical situations – it’s downright painful to watch.

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301. sorry for the “may will be a lot” – writing too quickly at work I meant to say “they may have made progress right there.” I actually can write a little bit – but my typing is another story.

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302. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/roy-halladays-trade-value

     I think Carrasco and Drabek plus Marson/Donald and Brown/Taylor is a reasonable deal and probably what it is going to take to get Halladay. Werth/Mayberry is a decent combo at one corner outfield position and, as long as they hang on to Brown or Taylor to replace Ibanez, they are good in the outfield for the next few years.

     The team right now is a decent bet to make the playoffs but certainly no sure thing. Bringing in Halladay is worth another couple extra wins and should help us lock up that #2 playoff spot. With Hamels and Halladay in the playoff rotation, it’s going to be real tough not to just pencil the Phillies into the NLCS against the Dodgers and probably even gives them the edge in that series.

     Once you get to World Series, anything can happen.

     The marginal value of bringing in Halladay is so huge for the Phillies (especially considering he has a way-below-market-value contract for next year too), I think as long as they hold on to either Brown or Taylor, they should pretty much sell the farm.

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303. Also remember that with Halladay as a type A, he will get you another Drabek-level talent or two when he leaves after 2010.

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304. posted this on another topic, but makes more sense here…

     “thought I would share this link…. with all the talk about Halladay potentially being available, ReclinerGM has a poll up about which prospect you would LEAST like to see included in a Halladay deal.”

     http://www.reclinergm.com/who-is-your-untouchable-prospect/

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305. The team is built to win right now. This is it folks. The window to win it all is now & to me that means everything. If the Drabeks, Browns & Taylors are the kinds of players the Jays want, there has to be a reasonable package we can put together. The farm might be as strong as ever. This is the best pitcher in baseball we’re talking about. He goes deep into games & always gives you a bonafide chance to win. His work ethic & commitment to the team & winning is said to be borderline insane.
     Get it done!

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306. Interesting answer I received in a Chat with a scout from Baseball America, Jim Callis, highly touted scout, I said to him pick one Michael Taylor or Dominic Brown and he said Taylor. This coming from the same place that before the year had Brown much higher.

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307. The Phillies will either get Halladay or he will not be traded

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308. Nowheels, this roster (excluding pitchers) is better than the one that won the world series and has the same record as last year’s team at this time, despite much worse pitching. If you think that Ruiz stinks behind the plate, then I have to question your knowledge, I suppose that you think he was lucky last year and that all the experts who said he was doing a good job were blowing smoke. I am in favor of replacing our backups with better players, but an upgrade of a starting pirtcher is probably ten times more important than an upgrade of a backup catcher or shortstop. The issue of Lidge as closer is irrelevant-he isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but every complete game Halladay would pitch (he has four, I think) would be one less game that Lidge has to save. I never blamed Happ for going seven innings, just for blowing the 3-0 lead by giving up two home runs to the same guy. I guess we can always blame it on Ruiz instead.

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309. Catch 22 – I’m not saying it as a fact that X=Y. The point is that we don’t know what Drabek, Taylor or Happ will become. Sure, Happ has been good, but so was Kendrick in his first year. Check the comps with Floyd and Byrd at Reading in same-age seasons. Byrd was .316/.386/.555 with 28 HRs with 35 SBs at age 23 in Reading. I think we all think there is more hope for Drabek/Taylor/Happ than the other three, but there’s a long way to go before they are Hamels/Utley/Myers.

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310. Joe Says:
     July 8, 2009 at 1:59 pm

     Also remember that with Halladay as a type A, he will get you another Drabek-level talent or two when he leaves after 2010.

     In the 2011 draft hmm Great progress we are looking at
     2014 at least.
     Your point is taken but quite remote

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311. i would give up worley, donald, mayberry, bastardo, and maybe carpenter. Marson could be thrown in instead of someone else but i think the phils are deep enough to do this deal without giving up Brown, Taylor, Drabek, Happ, Knapp, or Carrasco. IMO those guys are untouchable no matter what but Carrasco could be expendable for the right deal.

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312. Max Says:
     July 8, 2009 at 2:04 pm

     The team is built to win right now.
     c’mon
     The only reason this team is winning is a terrible division. This is a country club team aside of nine or so players. Name more than ten. Try it. Players with major league attitude, and ability.

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313. im not the same max as that guy. that was another max. he has a capitalized m and i dont. ill put maxspence for now on. btw i dont think this deal is worth it. i would rather hold on to our elite guys cause if werth leaves and ibanez is done, we have taylor and brown to slip in and carrasco will be put in if myers goes and when moyer is done the year after that drabek can be put in and the same with savery or worley once blanton leaves. donald for pedro feliz if his option isnt picked up and marson is coming up and taking coste’s spot next yr prob. all of these guys are an in integral part of the future and if we have left over guys like bastardo or carpenter, it is always good to have depth or trade bait

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314. There are some people on this thread who are borderline delusional. When even John gets it, failure to do so is troubling to say the least. Nowheels is pretty bad, but even he isn’t the worst by far.

     What I’m saying is this: it’s one thing to say that you won’t trade any of Brown, Happ, Taylor, Drabek Carrasco and Knapp. Wrong and even foolish IMO but defensible.

     But to say that you think you can make the deal without trading any of those guys?

     That’s not just wrong, that’s insane. Heck, while your at it maybe we should try to trade Coste for Pujols? That’s about as likely.

     Yeah, I’m talking about you max 3:38 p.m.

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315. LarryM.
     As usual many words to say nothing.

     Anyone know how bad Santana is hurt( hit by a pitch and left the game)??

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316. And nowheels, your biggest problem is failure to see the forrest for the trees. The bench problems are real but fairly meaningless in the greater scheme of things; the relief problems more serious, but (a) not as serious as the starting pitching problem, (b) not solvable through the trade market, and (c) can be mitigated by solving the starting pitching problem.

     Your overall evaluation of the team is also skewed, in that (these days more than ever, but in the past as well) it’s very, very rare to get teams that are strong top to bottom. You seem to forget that they won last year with similar personel. A team built around Utley, Howard, Ibanez, Werth, and Hamels, with several solid supporting players is a team that can win now and is built to win now (was last year just a fluke?) And this comment is just vile and disgusting: “Name more than ten. Try it. Players with major league attitude, and ability.” What’s WRONG with you? I’ve come to John’s defense before, despite our differences, but not you. I’d like to see you banned from commenting for crap like that.

     Finally, your comments about Ruiz’ catching alone disqualify you from ever being taken seriously on this board.

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317. OH Larry another banning. Do you do anything but claim you are right. Chatter like a small monkey trying to look large.
     Why do you think Ruiz is a good catcher because you were told?
     Finally you name the supporting players please.
     As long as you disagree with me I know I am right. Chatter on.

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318. For some reason, I have the feeling that Larry, NoWheels and John’s ages add up to over 80 years. Try to as a group act HALF that age. Jesus.

     Though I do agree with Larry’s baseball points.

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319. Hey guys, I have no authority on this site, but why don’t you all keep it civil? This is a site about baseball prospects – it’s a ton of fun and we all love to debate the pros and cons, but in the scheme of things, it’s not that important and it’s certainly not worth getting upset about. We can all agree to disagree without being mean about it.

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320. David Murphy’s blog “High Cheese” @ philly.com has comments from Amaro and Manuel strongly implying that Drabek is untouchable in any potential deal for Halladay.
     If nothing else it’s a good negotiating ploy.

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321. Phillies | Made offer for Hairston
     Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:38:22 -0700

     Ken Rosenthal, of FOXSports.com, reports the Philadelphia Phillies offered P Vance Worley and P Hector Correa to the San Diego Padres for Oakland Athletics OF Scott Hairston, according to a major league source.

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322. Why? This is his first good year. Ken must be hitting the sauce.
     I have a headache.

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323. Hamels, Halladay, Blanton, Happ, Moyer/Lopez

     Make it happen!

     The Jays will not trade Halladay to their own division so we shouldn’t be too eager to sweeten the pot, just enough to get it done. Still, I don’t see how they’ll do it without Drabek in the deal so on second thought I don’t think the Phillies can say he’s untouchable.

     Trading Happ would be a mistake, a deal can be arranged without him in it.

     I would rather see Drabek traded than Happ because there’s half a season left and it’s time to make a run. Drabek isn’t ready, Happ is. In this case ceiling is trumped by timing.

     If Drabek/Carrasco and Brown/Taylor are the centerpiece of the deal, then it will also take Donald and another prospect, probably a top 5, hopefully not Marson.

     If the Jays covet Marson, offer Carrasco instead of Drabek. Or maybe we keep our choice of Brown/Taylor. Make them concede something if they insist on Marson, they’ll probably blink knowing next year they’d get even less.

     The last name will be the trickiest but try to mix and match and get it done!

     Hamels, Halladay, Blanton, Happ and Moyer/Lopez

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324. Anyone who has watched Taylor a lot this year in Reading is probably in the group that thinks he is untouchable. Not just his rediculous numbers, the cannon arm, the plus speed, but just the way he carrires himself, interacts with the fans, signs after most other players after the games, you can tell he “gets it”. His rights handed power/BA bat is exactly what the lineup in Philly will need in 2 years. If it means having to give up on Halliday and getting a Cain for example, then trust me, it will be worth it if we keep Taylor.

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325. I have been reading this site for over a year, but have not commented before. I grew up on Philly, but now live in the SF Bay Area.

     Trust me, Cain is not an option now or for the foreseeable future!

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326. viking,
     Agree completely with your views on Taylor. He is exactly what MLB needs in the game.

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327. That Hairston deal would not be bad. The Phils need to turn the excess pitching depth into usable big leaguers, and Hairston is a righty hitter who is versatile and has serious power. He can cover center field as well, and the organization has little depth at that spot.

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328. The Hairston deal would be a great one – he can hit and will provide a real right-handed option off the bench – you only have to watch Bruntlett bat in key situations for a few games know that this is truly a glaring weakness for the team.

     A couple of B level prospects for a good major leaguer who fills a whole – that’s why you have a minor league system. I’m all for it.

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329. I have loudly been backing Carpenter and Marson. Tonights box score says volumes

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330. Not that I have a strong opinion as to whether they should do this – I see pros and cons – but could the Hairston deal, if it happens, be preperation for a deal for Halladay which would include Victorino?

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331. preperation?

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332. I don’t think so, I think the Hairston inquiry is just a response to their clear need for a right handed bench bat.

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333. asking price for Halladay is steeper then expected for Cardinals. asking price is just ridiculous and phils might be in over there heads if asking price could be like thishttp://twitter.com/JoeStrauss/status/2543260697

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334. Some people have made comments about Drabek’s body type and how his size is a little too small. Does anyone have any insight into this? Should he really be this much of an untouchable?

     Just wondering.

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335. Max, If everything is true out of Amaro’s mouth and not just a ploy then he wont go anywhere near what the asking price is. Im almsot 100% sure it will take 3 of our top 5-8 prospects plus another 1 or 2 top 20 guys that is a HUGE HUGE amount to give up. Also they are going to want a TOP FLIGHT Pitching prospect that is close to MLB ready and we only have 1 of those in Drabek… I WANT HALLADAY but only if its a package Headlined by CC (he is expandable his confidence is going to hold him back) Marson or D’Arnaud (1 will have to be traded eventually) Donald (given they love this kid), to finish im sure they will want another 2 SPs hopefully in the likes of Kendrick, Bastardo, Carpenter, Flande, Worley…

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336. Anonymous, (use a name pls) A few scouts have said his size may hurt his chances as a SP long term but are still in love with him, hes either a Top Rotation SP or a Shut down Closer and to be honest I have heard NOTHING less than WOW from anyone in the baseball world.

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337. Just one more thing for everyone to think about and or chat about….

     “Here’s what Strauss tweeted just a moment ago: Asked about the price tag for Halladay, a club source said: “Give Ricciardi all our minor-league rosters and let him circle any 5 names.”

     A deal with the Cardinals would start with Brett Wallace, and might also include shortstop Pete Kozma, catcher Bryan Anderson, outfielder Daryl Jones and/or right-hander Clay Mortensen. We’re just throwing the Birds’ top prospects out on the table, but that’s what it’s going to take. According to Erik Manning of FutureRedbirds.net, via the Post-Dispatch’s Bernie Miklasz, the Jays “showed a lot of pre-draft interest” in both Wallace and Kozma.”

     As of Jan 2009 that is 4 COUNT THEM 4 of their top 10 prospects if we were to put up a package similar to that all I can say is GULP

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338. i have been reading and posting here since greg golson was drafted (i was the first on here to recognize MTaylor look it up). I just read every comment from this post and i love this site and all of you guys (no homo)

     i dont have as strong convictions as some others do but i think:

     Carrasco or drabeck/Donald/Carpenter/Brown and maybe one of mayberry/flande should get a deal done. it they pick drabeck then you take out brown and put in marson.

     for the record i would rather get cliff lee and give up less prospects

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339. I don’t get that offer for Hairston from the Phillies standpoint. Did everybody see what Oakland gave up to get him just days ago?

     http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=457752

     http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=444436

     There is a player-to-be-named in the deal, but a so-so triple-A reliever and a crappy 22 year old starter in A ball? Not exactly stud prospects. Not that Worley and Correa are studs either, but they’re better than those guys.

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340. trading happ imo is not an option, he will win appox. 7 games the rest of the year. take him away add halliday and he wins say 12 games. adifference of 5 games. are 3 or 4 top prospects worth 5 wins. oh you say he will improve our situation in post season play. probably, he may make the difference though i think we can win without him. taylor is not an option. in the next year we will need a mlb. ready outfielder for right or left. do you want that to be mayberry. furthermore taylor is one of the 8 position players named to the minor league all-star team. THATS EVERY MINOR LEAGER IN AMERICA, HE’S IN THE TOP 8. so go to riccardi say you can have any 4 drabek, carrasco,brown,donald,marson,savery. if you can do better go ahead j.p. HE CANT DO BETTER AND HE KNOWS IT.

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341. Carpenter has made himself attractive but with Lopez’s shoulder problems,who knows what they will do. Marson
     might be off the table as the only decent catching option.
     He rapidly approaching his AA numbers after a slow start (post partum or not).
     BTW Congrats to Hewitt just keep it going.

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342. Since the Phils will probably be trading prospects they may be able to wait until the waiver period on their end since they may use the dreaded “player to be named”
     Interesting that they come back against fish after break. Interesting who and what order the starter will be.

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343. just heard seth everett and he said the jays want 2 roster players and 2 top prospects. they told the angels they wanted weaver and top pitching prospect and kendrick and another top prospect. he said the yankees and sox are out of it. for the phillies it would take happ drabek carrasco marson and donald. or happ drabek mayberry marson and donald. ( my interpretations). it looks like happ is important. he said the phillies have the most to offer. cubs, dont have enough.

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344. @nowheels please

     I know he’s not hitting right now, but you’re way off base on Ruiz. Almost anyone in baseball will tell you that he’s an outstanding defensive catcher who makes the Phillies pitching staff better. Look at how badly we were pitching when he was injured. He calls an outstanding game and I don’t understand how you think he mishandled Happ. @LarryM is absolutely right on this one. I’d love to have a rational discussion with you about how you could possibly think that Ruiz calls a bad game.

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345. If they want Happ then they can have him assuming it is an integral chip in trade. Amazing how this guy’s stock has risen so much that he’s considered untouchable for the best pitcher in the game. This move is for the postseason not regular season.

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346. If you didnt see Happ’s first game it is hard to explain except the Reyes faked being hit by a ball and went on and on.
     If you knock down the next hitter you DEMAND respect. Ruiz
     should of provided that leader ship. I know Molina would of.

     2. Bastardo needed to at least show a breaking ball. Again
     leadership.
     My view of things.

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347. When the Cards come to town watch Molina and how he takes charge.

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348. I would prefer something like Drabek, Happ, Mayberry and Donald, plus one of the younger catchers. Valle has been playing better, I think Marson should be playing for us now. He is superior to Coste and Bako and Ruiz is really struggling. I was one who was down a little on Happ and I will admit I was wrong, but Halladay becomes our best pitcher and is up there with Utley as our best player. I realize that everyone thinks we have to give up Taylor or Brown to get him, but does Toronto want to risk the Phillies not making the trade and getting less? Halladay getting hurt again? Going into the offseason does not make it easier as teams could sign a free agent (I know it is a weak crop) such as Lackey. Having Peavy get healthy and the Padres take a lesser proposal to be rid of his salary. Of the teams bidding on Halladay, we have 1. prospects, 2. money 3. need. You can rule a lot of teams out using those 3 criteria.

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349. Anyone know what is up with Bedard.

     What about D. Santana. Is he hurting??

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350. I’m OK with selling pieces of the farm, but some of these proposals are out of hand. Look at the Mets. They have no depth on the farm, and as injuries crop up they’re plugging holes with nothing.

     So we give up Marson, Donald, Carrasco, Drabek, Happ, and Savery/Carpenter, and then say Ruiz is injured and goes down for the year. Now you’re looking at Bako and Coste for the year. You don’t have Marson to bring up who is already better with a staff than Coste. Say J-Roll or Utley go down for the year. With no Donald you’re stuck with Bruntlet filling in.

     Our staff pitched a lot of innings last year. One or two of those guys will miss some time this year. What if one of the relievers is injured. Who are you bringing up? Carrasco, Happ, Savery/Carpenter, and Drabek are gone.

     Baseball is a team sport, and it’s good to have quality depth. I’m not saying we don’t want to trade for Doc, but let’s realize that having an Ace doesn’t solve all of your problems, and in fact, giving up depth can make your team worse.

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351. never mind Bedard threw 4 innings July seventh 2 runs.
     Lets look at him too,

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352. Possibly Dom Brown, Carrasco, Donald and Marson would get it done. It certainly seems better than the package the Mutts gave up for Santana. I would do this as it leaves the Phils with Taylor, Knapp and Drabek — as well as a host of B prospects. And Anthony Hewitt, who is on a tear!

     I can’t imagine the addition of one player to one team would make as much of a difference as Halladay to the Phils. A rotation of Halladay, Hamels, Happ, Blanton and Moyer becomes rock solid, as opposed to a shaky one of Hamels, Happ, Blanton, Moyer and a body.

     A tremendous upgrade. At a cost, yes, but one they should try to get done.

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353. Great point DPhrey. I’m not in favor of any deal that includes Happ and I’m not in favor of any deal that would would include 2 or more of: Taylor Drabek and Carrasco

     No one guy especially a guy that can only go out once every 5th day is worth depleting your farm system for.

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354. Anybody spot this doozy from the dinosaur Conlin in his column against trading Michael Taylor:

     “Or can be overwhelmed by a Red Sox package that includes perennial pitching prospect Taylor Buchholz. That Taylor they can have. This is, after all, an economic decision by a GM who has strapped the Blue Jays with future expenditures that will include $140 million owed to outfielders Jose Rios and Vernon Wells.”

     In his rush to use a Taylor to Taylor link, Conlin seems to forget that Clay Buchholz is the Boston wunderkind. Taylor of course, is the former Phils farmhand traded for Wagner I believe.

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355. @nowheels

     I absolutely respect your opinion, I just happen to disagree. I wanted to know why you thought that.

     Also, I think we all need to calm down on Happ a little bit. I know he’s pitching well right now, but not well enough to be the dealbreaker in a trade for Roy Halladay. Remember after that first start when everyone was convinced that Bastardo was the second coming? Maybe Happ is a sell high candidate right now.

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356. The difference is Happ pitched well last year and basically his entire ML career now, save his first ML start.

     You include Happ and you’re weakening one end of the rotation to strengthen the other end. Makes little sense.

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357. Conlin’s point is this: don’t trade Michael Taylor. I agree with that statement. I’d much rather they trade Brown than Taylor. I think Taylor has the potential to be a perennial all-star.

     Let me ask this, also. Would it be the end of the world if the team tried to get a mid-level starter for a few second tier prospects, but otherwise held tight? It might not make them as popular in Philly, but I think, beginning next year, the team you would put together would be phenomenal AND you’d have some additional control over salaries. Just a thought. That’s what I’d be inclined to do if I were the GM. In saying this, I am assuming that the cost for Halladay will be prohibitively high.

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358. jak440 and Jake
     I would like Halladay too but there is too many holes and no depth if trade. If the team faces reality they will see that.
     The problem is and has been the management makes plans and sticks to them no matter what happens.
     Baseball is a fluid thing not something written on a blackboard. One slip or fall or injury and you have to redeal.

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359. minor prospects will not get it done unless you want to pick up wells contract. it will take 4 or 5 major prospects. its true if we need marson or donald were screwed. but trading drabek,cc,brown knapp would leave us with marson donald and taylor. plus if we need a pitcher carpenter should do fine as a number 5. but i really believe marson will have to be part of it. lets hope d,arnaud is real.

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360. Jim Callis, who actually does this for his job, had this to say about a Halladay trade:

     Jim (Coatesville, PA)
     Happ, Donald and Drabek for Halladay – yea or nay?

     Jim Callis (2:02 PM)
     The Phillies would do that in a second but I don’t see the Jays biting on that one. For me, Donald and Happ have ceilings as solid regulars, and the Jays are going to want more than one guy with a lot of upside for Halladay.

     I’m surprised he thinks the Phils would so readily give up Drabek when all we’ve heard is the opposite.

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361. By the way, just another thought. If you look back at the history of baseball, you see some very clear warning signs about trading top level talent for a current star who is, in his mid to late career years.

     Does anyone remember when Montreal got Mark Langston – they had to give up a guy named Randy Johnson. Not a good trade.

     How about that Doyle Alexander trade the Detroit engineered with Atlanta. Alexander was incredible that year – won almost all of his games. The price? How about a guy named Smoltz. Not so good.

     Conlin rightly pointed to the Jenkins trade by the Phillies – not a good move.

     Another thought is this. Go back to those great old Yankees teams. Basically, the Yankees were great for 40 years – 40 YEARS!!! How many stories do you hear about the great young players they traded away to go experienced players? I’m not aware of any, although I am sure some young good players must have been traded, as it is such an extended period of time. However, throughout that period, guys like DiMaggio, Berra, Mantle, Rizzuto and Howard were not traded. They were retained and polished like jewels. The Yankees knew then what the Red Sox know now – the point is to develop great talent and keep it coming, not to trade it away.

     The Phillies finally have a nice assortment of talent. That talent seems to be burning a hole in everyone’s pocket. The prevailing thought is that you use much of that talent to win again this year. I have the opposite thought. You have so much talent that you can continue to use the talent to keep the team great over an extended period of time. That’s not to say that you never trade prospects, just that doing so should be the exception, not the rule.

     That’s my two cents. I know most people don’t agree with that, but, gosh, there’s so much talent here – why piss it away?

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362. one thing, the one fallacy about trading for halliday is that we cannot win without him. i believe we can. plus if they want too much i believe oswalt would be available and cheaper. one thing about negotiating dont get robbed. you have to be prepared to walk out of the room.

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363. OK, I posted too quickly before. More Callis comments on Halladay and the Phils.

     Logan (CA)
     Do you think this deal gets Halladay for the Phils: Taylor, Drabek, Marson, and PTBNL

     Jim Callis (2:05 PM)
     That one also might work.

     He also had an interesting comment later about taking on contracts:

     Paul H. (Chelmsford (MA))
     Jim, would taking on either Wells’s or Rios’s contracts reduce the price in prospects for Doc?

     Jim Callis (2:58 PM)
     Definitely.

     If that’s the case, I’d put Victorino or Werth in a package and take back one of Wells/Rios. Then again, it’s not my money.

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364. Real Serious question for everyone, and I know Happ isn’t really a prospect anymore, though clearly it’s his rookie year. When he first came up I think most people saw him as a 4/5 Starter with an 80% chance of reaching that level. What do we view him now? Especially considering he may be trade bait?

     I say:
     2 Starter 5%
     3 Starter 40%
     4 Starter 75%
     5 Starter 90%
     Spot/BP/Journeyman 98%

     Anyone want to throw out their ceiling and odds?

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365. “Name more than ten. Try it. Players with major league attitude, and ability.”

     To pick up the thread of this charming comment, on a more substantive level, try this:

     Let’s see:

     Stars: Utley, Howard, Ibanez, Werth, Hamels

     High level supporting cast: Victorino, Rollins (arguable on first half performance, but still good in the field, and hitting very well lately, not to mention that his history and age suggests that he will at least return to a level of play that makes him a strong supporting cast member, if not a star), Blanton, Happ, Madson (as a set up man), Dobbs (considering his role),

     Solid supporting cast – Feliz, Stairs, Eyre, Romero, Condrey, Durbin, Lidge (nowheels will disagree, I know, but he has looked pretty good since his return – 2 for 2 on saves, did take a loss but you can’t expect perfection), Park (as a reliever), Lopez (if he is healthy)

     More questionable, but certainly have “major league ability and attitude” – Moyer (certainly based on June July performance; in any event, you can’t question his attitude), Ruiz, Coste

     That’s 23, or 20 if you exclude Ruiz, Coste and Moyer. Certainly more than 10. The rest? No reason in the world to question their attitude; as for ability, it’s probably about what you expect for the final 2-5 roster spots on a ML team, maybe a little less than you would like on a contender, but PLENTY of teams have won WS with that level of talent on the back end of the roster.

     So nowheels, let me ask you – which of those 23 players lack major league ability or attitude? We can guess about a couple of them from your posts, but given your quoted statement, you believe that 13 of the people on that list don’t deserve to be on a major league roster. Which ones?

     To the other posters here, I’ll try not to sink to nowheels level. It’s hard, sometimes – not because of his level of baseball knowledge, but because of his persistent nastiness, not just directed at other posters, but at players & members of the organization. But I’ll try.

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366. I’m not really as well versed as some on the type A/B free agents, but wouldn’t Shane and, definitely, Werth be pretty darn close to type A’s?

     Jdub is on pace for over 35 dingers this year.

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367. I find that I’m split on this topic, and I keep going back and forth.

     The bottom line is while everyone admits Halladay is a great pitcher, he is only one player, and if we do decide to give up that much for him (Draybek and Taylor + 3 others) We are gambling a whole lot on 1 player who could have a career ending injury tomarrow.

     The real question Ruben needs to decide is, Chance at greatness for 3 years…. or…. Good for a while. I think the articles on Philly.com hit it on the head. He CANNOT acquire Halladay and have a very good phillies team for a decade.

     Can he win another WS in the foreseeable future without him?

     If so, you can’t make the trade, if not, then you pull the trigger.

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368. If you trade Shane , the team will lose lots of energy. We can win with this team adding just a few tweaks. Obviously Bruntlett, Bako and Coste are a weak end of bench.
     Taylor looks like a beast–we would regret losing him.

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369. “one thing, the one fallacy about trading for halliday is that we cannot win without him. i believe we can”

     John, as you know on this one you and I are largely in agreement, but as to the above quote, this seems to me to be somewhat at variance with your prior statements. Have you changed your mind, and, if so, based upon what? And are you saying that they can win by standing pat (extremely doubtful IMO) or that they will be able to make a different deal to get them over the top (IMO possible but not guarenteed).

     As for Oswalt (who IMO will not be available) or a similar player, I’d much rather have Halladay who is better, more of a sure things & has a contract that, high as it is, is significantly below market. Though obviously if the price for Halladay is prohibitive & if Oswalt could be had for much less you would have to consider that.

     Question for everybody: I’m embarrassed to say that I don’t know what Oswalt’s contract status is for next year. Anyone know? And is there a good site for such information on the web?

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370. Catch 22,

     Good examples, but to say it’s clear-cut that the team trading the prospects always loses is incorrect. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. Our Phillies traded Schilling for four prospects. Think Arizona enjoyed that deal?

     There are many, many other examples. The three pitchers we traded for Billy Wags never amounted to anything. We gambled and won that deal. Looks like the Mets are winning their Santana deal so far, with Phil Humber being released and Carlos Gomez no more than a backup outfielder. Deolitis Garcia and Kevin Mulvey are left.

     Sometimes the prospect giver wins and sometimes the prospect getter wins. In some cases, both teams win. Boston doesn’t regret trading Hanley Ramirez because they got Lowell and Beckett.

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371. @Catch 22 f/k/a/ H Man

     The thing is, we wouldn’t be pissing it away. I think every single person on this site — myself included — overrates our talent in the system a little bit. We’re all in to prospects, that’s why we’re here, but you can’t fall in love with “potential.” I’m not advocating blowing up the whole system, but here’s the thing, a lot of you are worried that we’ll “regret trading XXX later if he becomes a star.” That might happen, but that happens in baseball and you can’t be paralyzed worrying about “what if’s.”

     There’s another possibility that none of us want to think about but is probably more likely: none of these guys in our system turn into stars. Drabek could have arm trouble, Taylor or Brown could turn into Marlon Byrd. There’s just no way of knowing. Yes, we’d regret it if we traded them and they turned into stars, but think how badly we’d regret it five years from now if we were stuck with a mediocre core of players and hadn’t gone all out to win another trophy because we fell in love with guys who didn’t pan out.

     I don’t want us to get ripped off, but if you can go get Halladay, you have to do it. If you can go get a right handed bench bat, you go do it. The time is now.

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372. jak440’s point is a good one. It is very much like last year, when the Blanton trade was made. At the time, phuturephillies and many others on this site were down on the trade. I was at Game 4 of the World Series which Blanton pitched, was awesome and homered in. In the end, PP said, any trade that helps get you the World Series is a good trade. That is the reason he even allowed this topic as Halladay could be that guy for 2009.

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373. BA released the mid-season top 25: Brown #17, Taylor #23, Drabek #24

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374. the reason the yankees were so great is that they were one of the 1st teams to own their farm system thus much better scouting and player development and owning players. as for a righy bat off the bench mayberry. ais brunlett, coste, the new old catcher, do not belong on any contenders roster. so take that into consideration when trading marson, who,s come around, and donald who is beginning to show signs of life. so in reality the only deal that would not hurt us is drabek,carrasco,brown,knapp. if that is not enough for halliday so be it although it could be sweetened. trading vic or werth is not an option unless you want to destroy team chemistry.

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375. Go watch Taylor play for a couple of weeks and then let me know if you want to include him in a deal for Halladay. You won’t.

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376. jak440 – I think you’ve identified one of the main sources of the problem and that is that nobody really does know how good the players we have in the farm are going to be.

     I think we do often overvalue our own players – it’s normal. But sometimes, the players turn out to be even better than we imagined. Think back a couple of years when the Phillies appeared to be close to contending. It would have been so easy to trade a Chase Utley for a Bartolo Colon or a Ryan Howard for a Russ Ortiz. The team, however, held off and we are all grateful for this. Truly, doing nothing at the right time was one of the only positive things that Ed Wade ever did.

     The question is, who can we afford to lose and who can we not afford to lose. My view is that we really should not lose anyone that we think has a decent chance of becoming a true star. I think Michael Taylor fits into that category and Drabek is close – I’d hate to lose either of those guys. Brown and Knapp are a little farther down the ladder and, therefore, I could live with losing them in the right trade, but only if we get a star in return.

     Another productive way to look at this situation is to think of what you would need and/or insist upon if you were the Jays’ GM. The Jays need almost everything. They need young outfielders, they need infielders, they need catchers and they need more pitching. By doing that, perhaps you can play into their needs and make the GM an offer that he can’t refuse. Not the one he proposed to you, mind you, but one that he couldn’t afford to leave on the table. Using this guide, if I’m the Phillies, I offer the following: Marson (or any other minor league catcher he may want), Donald (unless he’d rather have Galvis – his choice), Brown (they have to get a stud outfielder and I don’t want to give up Taylor, period), Carrasco (a little frustrating, but a lot of potential), and choice of Carpenter or Savery (if he pushed, the hell with it, I’d give him both). In return, the Phillies would get Halladay and Rios, thereby giving the Jays more salary room.

     Think about this trade for a little while and it makes a lot of sense for both clubs. The Phils give up A LOT of talent and even some frontline guys, but only one guy (Brown) who might make us regret the trade even if Halladay does what he’s supposed to do.

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377. the only problem i see with your scenario is ruiz or an infielder going down and not having marson or donald. as i said i would trade brown,drabek,carrasco knapp. with halliday we certainly wouldnt be short of pitching.

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378. Wow, between Jody Mac, this site, several other blogs, and my friends my head is exploding!

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379. My concept of selling the farm is a bit different.

     Here is the only deal I would except.

     Donald. Rollins signed till 2012 and Galvis behind Donald.

     Kendrick. He won’t pitch in philly anymore so why keep him.

     D’Arnaud/Valle/Naughton. Pick one. We need Marson next year

     Mayberry. I like the kid but between werth, vic, Ibanez, Taylor, Brown, etc. he doesn’t fit here.

     Carrasco/Savery/Naylor/Carpenter. Pick one

     if they take D’arnaud they can’t have Carrasco.

     So at worst it would either be Donald, Kendrick, Mayberry, D’Arnaud, Savary. or Donald, Kendrick, Mayberry, Carrasco, Valle.

     That’s one OF, IF, C, and two pitchers for Halladay. If it’s not enough, I’m happy with how the organization looks currently.

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380. Phil – it’s a nice idea, but that package will not get you Roy Halladay.

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381. “the Phillies would get Halladay and Rios”

     If they were willing to take on Rios, and if Toronto was willing to structure the deal that way, some of the low-ball offers we have seen here might do it. It would (in theory) be a way to get halladay without giving up one of our big 3.

     Two problems, though (1) no way the Phillies are going to take on that much salary, and (2) I think that Toronto would rather get some really good prospects than shed Rios’ salary.

     I could be wrong about #2. I’m not wrong about #1.

     I’ll stick with what I said originally – I’d give up one (their choice) of Drabek, Taylor and Brown, plus a tier 2 prospect, and 2 tier 3 prospects. Unfortunately that probably won’t get it done, but as much as I want him I think anything more would be too much.

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382. Phills had insurrance on Myers so maybe there is enough money to net Rios. He is only owed about $3 million more this yr. And if we can keep Happ iwould trade Blanton next yr to save money.

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383. How much it must suck to be Rios and see people (I’m not the first by any means) to imply (or state straight out) that he has negative trade value? But it’s true, clearly it would be much cheaper to get Halladay plus Rios rather than Hallady alone.

     But he has a few reasons not to care I guess. Several million of them, actually.

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384. @phil That trade doesn’t get you a half season of Eric Bedard let alone a season and a half or Roy Halladay.

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385. 113,

     After 2009 Rios has 5 more years and 57.7 million left on his contract. Trading Blanton would not begin to compensate for that (and would be a bad idea for other reasons).

     Not happening. And, frankly, shouldn’t happen, for any team under any sort of salary constraints at all.

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386. LarryM- Good points. Bbut If you swap Werth for Rios you only owe abot $5 million extra next yr so moving Blanton would help. Then in 2011 it gets dicey but you could always not pick up the option on Romero or try and move Ibanez.

     I just think it’s more doable than most people think but not saying they definately can fit the money just saying they have a tad more wiggle room then we think.

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387. If you get Halladay, there’s going to be pain of some sort – financial burden and loss of talent. The more young talent you keep, the more you can offset burdensome contracts. There’s some give and take here. Also, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world to have a nice 4th outfielder like Rios – sure, he’s overpaid, but he could end up being very useful. He might even turn things around.

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388. Well like I said. I’m very happy with how the organization is set up currently. If that trade ain’t enough to get Halladay, then I don’t really want him.

     Personally, I think Halladay has become a little too injury prone to command the type of deal Toronto wants.

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389. LarryM, bookmark Cot’s for contract info.

     http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/

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390. read on foxsports that jays are insisting that which ever team trades for Halladay has to take Wells also. That would make it tough for any team

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391. read on foxsports that jays are insisting that which ever team trades for Halladay has to take Wells also. That would make it tough for any team

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392. do you guys make this trade for Halladay?

     http://www.reclinergm.com/would-you-make-this-trade-for-roy-halladay/

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393. Ten Reasons to get Roy Halladay:

     1. Pitching is the secret to long life.
     2. Pitching, pitching, pitching.
     3. Playoffs = Seven Games, Aces high.
     4. Starting pitching is our one glaring weakness.
     5. It isn’t just a one year rental, we’d have two shots.
     6. Roy and Jrew were born to co-advertise.
     7. Halladay beats the AL east and almost everybody else.
     8. We should have bid on Santana.
     9. Don’t let St. Louis join Halladay with Pujols and Carpenter.
     10. Hamels, Halladay, Blanton, Happ, Moyer

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394. A few things to consider in evaluating Happ. First, CBP makes him look less good than he is, his road stats are better. Second, he had to stretch out from relief to starting. Third, although the team lost 3 of his last 4 starts, in those losses he gave up 2 runs in 6 IP, 2 runs in 7 IP, and 3 runs in 7 IP.

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395. Taking Rios or Wells would basically be buying Halladay and should require just a modest package including Vic or Werth.

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396. John Heyman is reporting that [a Dominican newspaper reported that] the Phils are close to signing Pedro for $4 million.

     If true, this tells me that either:

     1. The Phils are out of the Halladay sweepstakes, or
     2. Happ will be dealt in a deal for Halladay

     Thoughts?

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397. I have to think an old Pedro is still a good signing.

     Re: Halladay-
     The price has to be high…I get that. Drabek (done), Brown/Taylor(done), marson/donald(done), one other prospect(done)…but Happ too? He’s been the best pitcher on the team this year. I think giving both Drabek and Happ(along with the others) is too much.

     Just my opinion.

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398. One last thing…taking on that bloated Wells contract is out of the question. He still has something like $20 mil plus for at least three years after this one. Who signed that deal Billy King?

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399. They will not get Pedro and Halladay – I just don’t see that happening.

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400. Them going hard after Pedro tells me something…Just a week ago they were talking about how Pedro wasn’t enough of an upgrade and they weren’t interested. Then, all this Halladay/Happ talk started and all of a sudden he’s coming in for a physical and we are going to most likely sign him? That sure sounds like they Phils have committed to sending Happ along for Halladay and they need someone to fill his spot. We’ll see…

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401. the more i think about the halliday deal the more questions i have. this gets a little complicated so bear with me. can we win without the deal , i say yes. right now marson and donald should be with the big club. if they are dealt we are without a future catcher and future infielder. we will absolutely have to sign howard utley and rollins. taylor will be ready next year. what outfielder goes, ibanez or werth. brown 2011 gives us more time, but the fact is we are going to need both taylor and brown to stay young. we will HAVE TO RESIGN HALLIDAY because drabek carrasco will be gone. that means next year when moyer goes carpenter is his only replacement. if we dont resign halliday were totally screwed. were getting old were short quality pitching, and the so called 3rd tier guys are too far away to know anything really. one of the reasons we love this team so much is it,s home grown. if we make this deal our future is really in jeoprady. i,d really think about it. UNLESS we take well,s contract and give them far less.

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402. That Dominican newspaper can be as reliable as what you find scrawled on the walls of the nearest underpass. The article says Pedro would be paid 4 million for the rest of the season. That would mean he would be paid around 8 million for the whole season. Maybe that was dictated by Pedro’s agent. People would be absolutely crazy to pay that much at this date.

     Since a team seeking to win it all , will add to the team to do so, they will not give up players from MLB roster. Giving up another rotation member or a starter at a position is not wise.

     Like I said above, Phillies will not add 30 million to the payroll. So the Wells , Rios thing —I say forget it.

     The stuff about the dire consequences of losing a few prospects is way off. They don’t operate the team in order to facilitate the quickest opportunities for high rated prospects. If an MLB player is doing well, they are not going to move them just to accomodate others. Also the theories about who needs to be replaced and when, does not correlate to the likely or desired movements.

     I would never be concerned with whether a player is extended or not, 2 years of a top player,is worth some prospects. The extension would be doable after that. if warranted, and other possibilies would arise to fill roster needs , by then.

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403. That was my stuff above. That Snap stuff busted in , somehow.

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404. Now that I have added above comment. The long post I had made which appeared under the “search the world on snap(dot)com, has dissappeared. Somehow they had taken over and usurped my screen name .

     Since I won’ t be inclined to re-enter what I put before, let’s just summarize by saying I de-bunked most of what went on before.

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405. Now , the Snap thing has returned.

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406. Heard the Pedro rumors last night.

     First I didn’t think it would be a bad idea. This morning I’m thinking they may be using Pedro to force the Blue Jays into accepting a lesser value from the phillies.

     Being that the other two leading teams to trade for Halladay also play in the blue jays division, they may be leaning toward the phillies. The phillies may be balking at the price and saying to toronto that they could go with Pedro forcing toronto to trade with Boston or Yanks… or accept a deal of lessr prospects that is still better than anything teams other than boston or NY could provide.

     Just a thought.

     I don’t think Pedro’s personality fits in the Phillies locker room and he has Met stink all over him.

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407. marfis or snap there are dide consequences moving too many pieces when the average age of your team is 30 and most of the contracts are up in 2 years. ruiz is 30 who if not marson replaces him, feliz iz is 34 who ? rollins contact is up in 2 years who replaces him if not donald. werth is 30 ibanez 37 both contracts will be up, who replaces them if not taylor and brown. moyer will be gone next year,blanton probably the year after. who replaces them if you do not resign halliday and add a pitcher. who. what your looking at is signing guys to contracts that will give us an overaged overpaid team. if the current a and draftees dont pan out who replaces them. thats been bostons success and i dont see any stars waiting to shine. so were forced into a situation of signing guys past their prime or going berserk in the fa market. marson should be here right now coste and bako gone. donald should be up brunlett gone. btw i just heard john heyman call anthony hewitt one of our top prospects for the second day in a row. i hope you get that spirit in your computer fixed.

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408. what im saying is do to age lack of other prospects at their positions marson, donald, onr of taylor/brown,one of carrasco/drabek,cant be dealt. im fine with drabek brown knapp d,arnaud,savery

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409. That package might ge it done john and i think i could live w/ it but i think the phils like ruiz and how he handles the staff, he is only 30 and is still cheap. D’arnaud may not be attractive with his recent performance and I just have a feeling he will be better than marson because of the power. I’m pretty sure feliz will be here next year which will make donald either a backup next year or a 25 yr old Minor leaguer. The point is that many of thes core will be resigned or extended. The money saved will be in slowly replacing 1 or 2 guys that are declining at a time or whose perceived value isn’t what the phils think it is like myers 12mil. we don’t need to know every replacement for the phils for the next 5 years and we can’t assume that they will all be succesful in replacing the current starters, some will fail. I do agree that our bench stinks ad would like the trade of worley, correa for hairston.

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410. i wonder if the pirates would be willing to trade zach duke. he bwould be a decent 2/3 and we wouldn’t have to give up as much. maybe carrasco mayberry would get it done.

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411. I don’t really see bringing Pedro in as a detriment to the Halladay deal. If anything it seems as thought it would be a detriment in keeping Happ.

     Even before Myers went down there were very strong rumors about us going after a front of the rotation starter. From Peavy, to Bedard to whoever may have been on the trading block. After Myers went down that became an even more apparent need and popular consensus was the club now needed to look for two.

     Since the emergence of Happ and Bastardo the search for two was dialed down and the search for intensified even more. Let’s not dillude ourselves into thinking something that is just not in the cards.

     The club wants a guy for the front of the rotation to take pressure off Hamels and make this team better. Just because we may not like the prospect of losing prospects doesn’t mean we should ignore what is happening right in front of our eyes.

     Amaro is going to do his best not to give up the system. He wants to throw it out there that there are players that they don’t want to give up, but we have depth in the system for the first time in a long time and it is there for a reason. It is there to make us better. Whether short term or long term.

     Philly fans really frustrate me because they always want it a 100 different ways. For the past 20+ years its been that this team doesn’t do enough, that team doesn’t do enough to go out there and not only challenge, but WIN. Now when a team wants to do whatever it can to win, they are told not to and if they do will lose all credibility, or some nonsense I have heard in this thread.

     How many trades did the Phillies forgo to make the team better because of the untouchable Gavin Floyd? What happened after we brought him up and he forgot how to pitch? We ended up getting rid of him for peanuts.

     Everything is a gamble, but where would the club be now if they hadn’t given up what they did for an innings eater almost everyone wanted to crucify Gillick for?

     Yes the future is important, but usually when everyone is asked would you rather win now, or win in the future they pick the former rather than the latter.

     Halladay and Pedro (who hopefully comes back fresh and reenergized if we do get him) for Happ and (hopefully) one untouchable and a couple 2nd or 3rd tier guys is fine by me.

     Let’s not forget that we’ve been linked with a righty bat and the like. He isn’t just sitting on his laurels.

     If whatever they do now helps us win a title this or next year, then I will be more than happy to give up whatever we do.

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