I’ve decided that I am actually going to do a mock draft this year, even though the Phillies don’t pick until the back part of the second round. I just love the draft and all that comes with it too much, so I’m gonna spend some time working on that, and I’ll post it sometime next week. But watching Rick Porcello today, I wanted to make a quick note on this, a topic we’ve discussed before, mainly because the Phillies are going to have to be creative with this draft because they don’t have a first round pick or sandwich round pick. My stance on the draft is well known, I’m very much in the “spend more, invest more, and you’ll get more out of it camp”, while others have argued that you’re best served by not breaking slot and keeping costs down. The bottom line with the draft is, there are no sure things. But in sports, there are no sure things. The best teams don’t always win the World Series, the ace is often times defeated by the 4A pitcher, and we know anything can happen. But at the end of the day, its the job of the GM and everyone associated with the decision making of a team to best use its resources and make every effort possible to invest as much talent as possible.
The best current example of a risk paying off is Rick Porcello, RHP for the Tigers. Porcello, prior to the draft, was being called the best high school pitching prospect since Josh Beckett. He chose Boras as his adviser, he floated big bonus demands, and come draft day, he slid outside of the top 5, then the top 10, and then the top 20 before Detroit took him at #27. The Phillies passed at #19, taking Joe Savery, who signed for slot money, $1.37M. The Tigers gave Porcello a $3.6M signing bonus, as well as a major league contract which paid him $380K in 2007, $1.1M in 2008, $1.2M in 2009, $1.025M in 2010, and then two options for 2011 and 2012 worth a combined $2.88M, which will surely be picked up as long as he doesn’t do something dumb. So add that up. They invested $3.6M up front in him, a signing bonus equal to that of the #1 or #2 pick in the draft, and they paid him about $1.5M for his only full season in the minor leagues in 2008. In 2009, at age 20, he’s in the big leagues and more than holding his own. He’s costing Detroit $1.2M this year, and the total value of his salaries from 2007-2012, assuming exercised options, is $6.59M. Add his $3.6M signing bonus, and his total cost to Detroit is about $10.2M. For that, Detroit is going to get 4 years of big league service, after which he will be arbitration eligible twice before free agency. If Porcello is just a league average pitcher over the next 4 years, he’s a considerable bargain. If he fulfills even a small chunk of his potential (he’s a young Roy Halladay), then he’s a huge bargain for Detroit. He could suffer a bad injury tomorrow, develop a drug habit, leave baseball and join a traveling carnival, or get Yoko Ono’ed. Or he could continue to pitch really well.
Detroit took a risk, and they were rewarded. Not all risks pan out, but the draft is an easy way to accumulate talent, 50 players every year. The more money you spend, the better your chances are of finding the next major leaguer to help your team. You’re going to swing and miss sometimes, but sometimes you’ll hit a home runs. If you hit enough home runs no one remembers the strikeouts.
Check back next week for my mock draft.
Phuture Phillies 
good post with good, sound argument. i agree with you on some of it but disagree with you on Porcello.
first, i agree that you have to pay over slot and that you can get good talent later in the draft if you bust slot. there is no point in playing the game by the rules if your competitors don’t also. it is clear that you are more likely than not to find a top mlb talent if you bust slot and pay for top prospects. that is really in-disputable.
that being said, i think that you need to take a venture capital approach to the risk, which is spread the risk over a bunch of high capability talents instead of one mega talent, like Porcello. they invested a guaranteed $7.5 mil into him. at this point, it looks good. BUT it is still very early on Porcello. Because of the contract (i.e. size and being an MLB contract they have limited options on him), they rushed him to the bigs. that puts a lot of physical and mental strain on the kid. remember how good Rick Ankiel was in his age 20 season – 30 starts, 3.50 ERA, 1.3 whip and 10ks/9. and then he pitched in the post season and blew up. game over. Rick Ankiel a bad analogy? how about Todd Van Poppel? Can’t miss..big contract. couldn’t get the mental aspect down. Jeff Samardzija ($7.5 mil investment doesn’t looks so good right now) the list can go on and on of top high school pitchers that never blossom. This is no unique point and I know this comes as no surpise to any.
So the point really is, the opportunity cost that is a result of going for the big bang approach. we already know that the phillies manage to a fixed budget very tightly. as such, going for a mega prospect and killing 50% of the budget hurts us in signing others above slot. let us not forget that dom brown was a $200k overslot signing. and we went overslot a bunch in the 2008 draft.
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The players that PP Fan refers to failed for various reasons, and I don’t know if you can really lump them in together… but I think his overarching point — that clubs are best served by spreading the risk among several above-slot signings — is a sound one.
That being said, I don’t think that necessarily detracts from James’ point: that if you don’t risk something, you won’t get anything in return. I hope the Phils do make a splash at 75, be it Heathcott or whoever; and I hope they follow that up by grabbing real talent and paying those players above-slot as necessary. They demonstrated the right approach in the 2008 Draft; let’s hope that portends good things.
Meanwhile, I’m certainly looking forward to your take on this year’s draft, James. Very little in the way of polished college hitters, a ton of arms to be had, and other than a few consensus picks (i.e. Wheeler to Atlanta at #7), the board is a veritable mess after #2. Should be interesting to see you read the tea leaves.
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Any chance the phillies take a shot at weber again? do they go higher then 12th round to try and sign him?
http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/Articles/DisplayArticle.aspx?article=570
4. Ryan Weber, RHP, St. Petersburg (Fresh.)
Weber is the best pitcher on this list, period. He’s the one you give the ball to today because he’s the most advanced and he has plus command of an average major league curveball. Weber’s change-up is almost as good and his fastball has lively two-seam action. Though he only threw 85-87 MPH this weekend, Weber carved up Southern Nevada’s lineup. His high-effort delivery and lack of brute size (small-framed 6-0, 165) raise concerns about his durability for a pro career. Weber turned down a commitment to Florida to attend St. Pete and was also drafted in the 12th round by the Philadelphia Phillies out of high school last year.
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Along the lines of what PP fan is saying, take a look at another big name major league deal the Tigers game to Andrew Miller. Sometimes it works, some times it doesn’t – I guess they’re lucky they pawned him off before he lost all of his value (and fastball velocity).
As much as we like to think they have enough money to spare the Phils work within a budget. Here’s a question for everyone . . ..
Would you prefer them to spend a huge some to go way way way over slot player like Porcello, Casey Kelly, Josh Vitters (I know the Porcelo deal is a ML deal vs. minor league deals for the other two). Or have a draft like last year where we overslotted in multiple rounds and amassed more talent.
To some it up, excluding factors like where we are picking would you prefer the quantity (last years haul) or the quality (ala Kelly, Vitters, Porcello, etc.)
I don’t think there’s any right or wrong answer, but I’d prob go with the quantity.
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At draft time I wanted Porcello based on what I read. He is already in big league, like you know and on a pitch count, miller brought them carbera, but as I read on these drafts, pitchers are so fragile, and to me throwing 7million at unproven talent is nuts, I think what the phillies did last draft is better , but only if they are high ceiling kids, not reaches,Weber to me is a pass, small right handed pitcher, who is not overpower with okay curve, sounds like blanton, myers type, Hope the phillies keep the same draft stragery as last draft, I have been going over past drafts from draft central and it amazing to me how many of these high profile, big bonus kids, never make it ,past double a.
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I am by no stretch of the imagination a draft guru, but I like the approach of taking risks (with regards to signability – potential is a different thing altogether) in later rounds. The early rounds should be more of a sure thing. That being said, I have no problem going over slot in any round. I did think that the Porcello signing was a bit much, and I’m sure that Strasburg will get more, but as long as baseball only has “guidelines” rather than a strict salary structure, then bust slot whenever you see fit. Hell, the Phils drafting of Dom Brown now looks like a genius move, and hopefully the Phils will be getting praised for signings like Shreve and Cosart in a year or so.
– Jeff
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Supposedly David Renfroe has a pre draft deal worked out with the Yanks. I’m not sure how reliable a source it is though.
The same person said that Donavan Tate will more then likely fall, but wants (I think) 4 mil. His talent is undeniable so he would only fall because of demands.
Purke also will probably fall, keep an eye on him. If he last to the Phils I would love for them to take him. He needs a little work, but I think he could really benefit in a system like the Phillies.
Now if you are looking for a Porcello, I think Jacob Turner would be similar. He’s looking for a Beckett/Porcello deal, probably a little less.
Also, If it is a allowed, I can post scouting reports from BA of anyone in the top 100(200 comes out later today).
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Before reading what everyone else has said, I want to chime in real quick on what PP Fan said regarding the spread of risk.
I agree with your sentiments, but Porcello is the wrong example. Why? Well, if you’re the Tigers and have arguably the BEST player in the entire draft drop to you at that choice, you have no choice but to make that play, especially, IIRC, after such a successful season prior where they had the new ballpark, World Series berth, etc. etc. There are times where the “spreading the risk” just doesn’t make too much sense when a player of his caliber drops to you at that slot.
But I agree with both sides of the debate. Go big or go home? Yes, to a degree. Calm and conservative? Also good. You need a little bit of both, but if you ask me which I’d lean towards, it’d be invest invest invest in high ceiling players who may have high variabilities.
But I like what the Phillies have been doing. They’re taking quality arms and bats late and look to do their best to sign 1 or 2 of them overslot and buy out their college experiences.
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Good points, PP Fan. I thought about the desire to rush Porcello because of his MLB contract. But, from the perspective of sunk cost, Detroit actually has less of a need to rush Porcello. After all, the $7.5M is gone no matter when/if he makes the bigs, right?
Anyway, it’s just a thought. Porcello sure looks better than Savery right now!
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When start talent is available, you have to go after it- thats how good major league rosters are built. But it doesn’t necessarily mean selecting who baseball america says is a star either- you have to trust scouts, and let them get their guys. Knapp could end up being a guy like that. Drafting for depth though only gets you (hopefully) trading chips.
I’ve been keeping track of Porcello’s video- man, his breaking ball looks pretty amateurish- but that sinker, geez Louise, looks just like Derick Lowe.
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I have gone over previous draft, One comment that gets me is the one on pettibone, it says scout say he has a soft fastball? does that mean velocity or what. And if the phillies do back to 2007 draft stragery then what. What team do we get this draft the 2008 or 2006-7, where they took some low signable suys like mach?
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Draft another Michael Taylor. 2-2 so far today, now batting 333.
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Paul,
the reason to rush Porcello is because he has a major league deal and his arbitration clock is already started. If he wasn’t brought up until 2010, the Tigers lose a cheap year of ML service time…
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Correction. Meant to say that his option clock had already started, not his arbitration clock.
He had to be put on the 25-man roster within 3 years or would be available through waivers.
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on the 40 man roster or 25 if it’s the 25 that’s crazy.
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I loved Porcello and was disappointed when we went with Savery instead. Not many high school pitchers can place a mid 90s heater with movement. We drafted one guy like that in Kyle Drabek, and he looks like a keeper. This organization hasn’t paid enough attention to “stuff”. Sure, its expensive, but it often pays enormous dividends.
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I am not a big fan of major league contracts to high school players – it does force action sometimes a little bit too quickly. Imagine what might have happened with Gavin Floyd if he had been under similar time restrictions. The Phillies might have been forced to keep him on the major league roster before he was ready – or expose him to waivers and lose him.
I think teams can get a 4th option year in this situation – but the Phillies would not have been able to send Floyd down in 2006 when he was pitching poorly.
Major league contracts aside – I do believe the Phillies need to go over slot on at least 2-3 players here. They have a couple of extra million dollars theoretically to spend beyond slot that might have gone to a high pick. Also, they normally go beyond slot by 200K-400K on several players each draft anyway (Sampson, Shreve, etc.). There is no excuse for the Phillies to spend less than $3-$4 million on the draft total and find players worth going over slot on to fit that overall budget.
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I heard Klaw has Tate dropping out of the 1st round because of his demands.
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Thanks for the post, James.
Generally I’m in favor of signing a number of B or B+ prospects away from their college commitment for $200k-500k as opposed to popping one biggie and slotting the rest. But this year, since we don’t have a first-round pick, I would like to see the Phils pop a Porcello or Alex Meyer-type pick. Yes, they do not always work out. But that will be the only way we inject high-level, Drabek-type talent right away. I will shed a tear of sorrow if we draft another Mike Costanzo. (Yes, I realize he was a useful trading chip).
Donovan Tate, come to papa! Or at least my boy Slade.
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There’s no question that Porcello looks like a good investment but there have been so many bad ones by various teams that I’m not sure that I agree with the theory. JD Drew comes to mind quickly as a can’t miss first pick that never came close to paying off their investment. Assuming a team has a fixed sum to spend, the argument is quality vs quantity. While I’m sure we all agree that quality should prevail, it must be realized that quality is often in the eyes of the beholder and even then, you can’t be sure. Quantity however is very real and its easy to say let’s maximixe the number of kids we can sign and hope that one overperforms for where they took him. This is the unique part of the baseball draft because so many high draft picks don’t make it while many lower picks do in fact make it.
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Please don’t post any full scouting reports. Its not worth the hassle it causes me
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Not about the draft but interesting:
Mike Taylor got a hit in his only at-bat and is hitting .329. While the speculation is that he may get called up to Lehigh Valley to help out a thin IronPigs squad, Steve Noworyta, Philadelphia’s director of minor league operations, calmed those waters.
“He has to show a little bit more,” Noworyta said. “It’s more about sustaining what he’s doing than just what he’s doing. He’s made tremendous strides in the last year and he has to continue doing what he’s doing this year – nothing more than that.
“I know Reading and Lehigh are close. But if he’s going to go, we want him to go to stay. We moved a player like that last year up to Clearwater and he hit the heck out of the ball and all of a sudden when he went back down he went into a slump. So a guy like Taylor, if he’s going to go, we want him to stay.”
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From Keith Law’s chat, he mentions high ceiling guys in the draft. You know the Phils love guys with high ceilings. One is Slade Heathcott, who James profiled in one of his previous posts. We’re more likely to get one of those hitters he mentions than one of the pitchers:
Logan (CA): Which three players have the largest “upside” in this years draft, regardless if you believe they can reach that ceiling?
Keith Law: (2:09 PM ET ) Tate, Kyrell Hudson, Slade Heathcott, Brian Goodwin – those are the high-upside bats that come to mind. For pitchers, it’s the usual suspects, the Matzek, Miller, Purke class.
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There are several factors involved in the Phils’ drafting efforts this year:
First, let’s face the facts of the present “recession” (depression?). PERHAPS ALL of the MLB teams will adopt a conservative approach in light of that factor.
Then there is the fact of the Phils’ own payroll which is one of the highest in MLB— $130 million plus/minus.
And there is the fact that we don’t pick until late in the 2nd round.
Also, the Phils’ draft of ’08 may be one of their best efforts ever. That one showed a willingness to pay big bucks to several who were “gamble” picks because only high bonuses could bring them into the fold (Cosart, of course) which meant that the team had designated plenty of $$ for that draft which included several add’l early picks.
So the team realized that with such co$tly early signees, they’d have to pony up the extra $$ to get them signed…otherwise the early picks would evaporate.
The scenario this draft is vastly different.
No real early picks to consume big bucks even before the 5th or 6th round pick. So, the scouting people face a different methodology now: finding “hidden” gems that won’t necessarily cost big bucks but would cull good return on the investments.
So the biggest burden is on the scouting dept to locate the almost hidden.
That would leave more $$ for later “gamble” picks…and the resources available to take the add’l $$ risks associated with players who are “certainly” heading to college but $$s could veer them to pro ball. From past experience, there can be expected plenty of them…and it is THERE that our draft can be fruitful. Those kind are not likely to be early picks, but around 10th and thereafter there could be a mother lode of late but good signees FOR A HIGHER PRICE but could work IF the $$ is available…which it should be since it won’t need to be spent on a first round or sandwich pick.
Finally, there needs to be a re-assessment of the Latinm country scouting. There measure of effectiveness THERE comes up short since the assistance to ther big club from that quarter is nil…so far. There should be a serious review of their non-success and a reorganized “foreign” scouting group.
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Where did you see that taylor got any hits today.
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taylor was actually 1-6 today as they resumed the game from yesterday in which he started out 1-1 and collected a hit in his first ab this morning. Finished 2-4 and then went 0-3 in game 2.
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thanks didn’t see that.
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I too agree that it is generally foolhardy to give huge contracts to high school pitchers. Rick Porcello looks great, yes. But then you have the Yankees making a similar play for Andrew Brackman and his last start looked spectacular in its ineptitude.
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Brackman played both Basketball and Baseball at N.C. State University, he did not come out of high school.
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I think maybe my point didn’t come across clearly.
There isn’t a Rick Porcello in every draft. He was a once every 5 or 6 years talent who fell because of signability. A case like that I think you’re doing yourself a disservice by passing on him. There are no guarantees with any prospect, even a guy like Strasburg, its the nature of sport, especially a sport that puts a lot of stress on the body. But that comes back to the whole concept of acquiring the best talent when you can.
In general, I think its better to invest in a number of guys instead of one, unless that one is really special. There is no player, outside of Strasburg, who I’d give an 8M package to. I’d love us to be able to grab Donovan Tate or Purke if they fall because of big bonus demands, but in those cases, Tate is probably like a 5M bonus, Purke like a 3.5M bonus. Neither of those deals would be in the neighborhood of Porcello’s package.
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“mikemike Says:
May 28, 2009 at 10:00 am
I have gone over previous draft, One comment that gets me is the one on pettibone, it says scout say he has a soft fastball? does that mean velocity or what. ”
Yes, pettibone was drafted more for projectability- perhaps a phillies scout saw him start to pick up some velocity late in the season, but nobody had him in consideration as a 3rd round pick going into the draft.
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