What will the 2009 draft approach be?

2009 Draft

The draft is less than a month away, and I suppose its time to start considering what the Phillies will do. As we all know, the Phillies do not have a first round pick, and this year the sandwich round contains 17 picks, meaning the Phillies first pick will not come until the 2nd round, #75 overall, with their second pick coming at #106. This takes some of the fun out of the draft buildup for me, since its tough to project the first 30 picks, let alone the first 80 picks. Its going to be impossible to peg one guy, or even a handful of guys. There are a number of teams (Yankees, Red Sox) who will take a guy with a large price tag that falls, so that is one potential road block. This year’s draft is very pitching heavy, there are very few impact bats available, even those that could fall to us in the 2nd round. Check below the fold for more…

The Phillies strategy under Gillick was to take raw athletes with great tool sets, but with Gillick gone, there’s no indication that anything will change, as the draft team is still here, sans Arbuckle. Arbuckle always seemed to prefer projectable right handed pitchers, so that’s one thing to monitor. The one name on the board right now that is of interest is Matt Purke. Jim Callis mentioned in his first mock draft writeup yesterday that some teams are getting skittish about Purke’s signability/asking price. Purke, a prep lefty out of Texas, was ranked the 12th best prospect by Keith Law in his recent Top 100 rankings list. A few years ago Matt Harvey was considered one of the top prep pitchers in the draft but fell all the way to the Angels in the 3rd round, and ultimately went unsigned. The best case scenario for the Phillies is having Purke slide out of the top 15 because of signability concerns, and then end up in our laps at 75. Its a long shot, but its the best case scenario.

Looking purely at Keith’s Top 100 rankings, here are the 5 players he has ranked right around our #75 pick slot

#73 Deven Marrero, SS (American Heritage HS, Florida)
#74 Jeff Inman, RHP (Stanford)
#75 Chris Dwyer, LHP (Clemson)
#76 Slade Heathcott, LHP/OF (Texas HS, Texas)
#77 Bryan Morgado, RHP (Tennessee)

Those are just 5 names. Without a first round pick, the Phillies hands are kind of tied. The best case scenario is that they invest heavily in this draft by signing high school guys who slide based on signability concerns. Last year, the Phillies went over slot on a number of occasions in the first 10 rounds and spent a lot of money. Part of this was the extra picks we had, which required them to spend more money, and part of it was taking a chance on guys that required more than slot to keep them away from college. The Phillies don’t have a first round pick this year, which probably would have carried a slot recommendation of around $2M. If they choose to re-invest that $2M in the draft, they’ll be able to add 3-4 premium guys in rounds 2-10 instead of college seniors. If they choose to simply keep the money and play it down the middle, this is going to be a modest draft haul at best. Of course they could invest the money that would have been spent in the draft in Latin America, but considering our track record there, I’m not sure that would be wise. My preferred plan is to take the absolute best talent available with our 2nd pick, and continue to do so for a few rounds, even if it requires spending a bit more money. The 2008 draft class looks like one of the best in recent memory, and we got that by spending the money required. Let’s not close up shop after one good draft, lets build on it.

79 thoughts on “What will the 2009 draft approach be?”

  1. thanks PP, it’s a long shot indeed that purke falls to us but really we are so strong in pitching. I’d lovr to see the phils get the best college 3B available in 1st round someone ready by 2011 for cup of joe than start in 2012. anyone that fits that profile?

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  2. I think they can still have a successful draft even without a high pick. Who have their second rounders been the past few years? Knapp last year, Mattair the year before. I’m too lazy to look at the previous years (I know Donald went in the third round).

    As long as they retain last year’s philosophy and go over slot, they should be okay.

    I’ll repeat Markymark’s question though? Are there any decent 3B prospects that might be available when they are picking? The hot corner is pretty easily this team’s weakest position.

    – Jeff

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  3. What little I have read is that this is a weak draft for position players. Am I wrong? If so it’s hard to get the infield prospect we need

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  4. Yeah, trying to fill a specific need at 3B would be foolish. I can’t imagine anyone who projects better than a Joe Crede type, and you’re more likely to end up with another Mike Costanzo.

    I think the Phillies’ best strategy this season is to invest in the international market.

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  5. just my opinion but i would always take the college player over the h.s. player. ive been watching college ball every weekend ill see if any sleepers are available.

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  6. John from philly. ne, That is a great question for us to answer over time, what is the better percentage who make a major league roster, college or high school picks?

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  7. It will be interesting to see how the Phillies draft and also tap into Latin America. To their credit, they already made a big splash with the 330k given to Domingo Santana. Maybe they are already spending that cash that they won’t have to give to a 1st-round pick.

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  8. i think the best route to take with this draft is to draft the best available talent at your pick regardless of the position.

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  9. i think we definitely need infielders. Outfielders we’re good in, pitching we’re good in, infielders. Rollins isn’t getting any younger and we need an answer at 3rd and utley takes a beating out there day in and day out.

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  10. I think it might be good to consider D. Santana their 1st round pick when looking at this year’s class of new players.

    I think you always need to draft pitching ahead of anything else. From an organizational standpoint it’s easier to lure hitters to the big club’s park and more expensive to sign ML FA pitchers. Draft pitching and you can always trade it for hitters later (if you have a surplus and really need a hitter).

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  11. I consider Utley an overachiever especially defensively. My hat if off to him in many ways. The problem in the long run is overachievers drop off the table quickly. So Mike I have to agree with you.(what the hell is wrong with Rollins)

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  12. The only 3rd sackers I’ve seen pop up on Baseball America are high schoolers. LSU has a middle infielder whose range may move him to 3rd but he also may be more of a light hitter and maybe no more of an improvement over Jason Donald. Alan’s comment was right on.

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  14. now wheels overachiever? I have read many of your post and agree with a lot .but come on utley is the alltime college homerun hitting second basemen. He had a label placed on him about his defense, but from day one he has been a really good second basemen. Sometimes a scout hangs a label and it sticks. but he is a great player.

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  15. Thanks James, this is the post I’ve been waiting for! On general strategy, I certainly hope you are right that they take the best player available at every pick. I also hope they get aggressive on tough signs and put the $2m to work. I agree with others that drafting for a certain position is generally a bad idea, *unless* there is some systemic reason to do so. Hence I agree that pitching will in general be favored by the Phils in drafts as long as CBP plays the way it does.

    One question is how the Phils define best player available: the highest ceiling or the best combination of ceiling and present baseball skill? I think they err on the side of highest ceiling, which is a riskier strategy in my mind, especially if employed across the whole draft.

    I would also like to see them continue last year’s trend of drafting “tough sign” B-level prospects in the late rounds (instead of tough sign A-level prospects like Alex Meyer) and signing those guys up. You never know how an 18-year-old will develop over the next three years.

    Finally, a cross-post from soxprospects.com, thanks to TheGoldenGreek33. This is a local kid: http://www.philly.com/inquirer/sports/high_school/44515202.html. TheGoldenGreek33 posted a video that does not show on my computer but noted that Walker beat Bryce Harper in a home run derby.

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  16. I would love a ligit third base prospect from this draft. or even a real first baseman. we don’t really have any great corner infielders in the minors.

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  17. Good stuff. I isn’t followin the draft this year much cause we donts have a #1 pick ya hear. Happened in 2003 too. Takes a lil xcitement away. But my brother Billy Bob follows it a lil. Here’s hoping we hit on the other picks ya hear.

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  18. mikemike
    That wasnt a slam . When Utley was drafted he was called
    an average defender which in polite draft talk means less than average. He worked so hard that by the time he got to the Phils we was good and got better. Look at him hit . He hits his way not classically. Another tribute to him. But some times things unravel quickly and he does beat himself up playing the game(another tribute) e.g. Mickey Morandini not in Utley’s
    class but one year he was good the next nada. Hey maybe I am wrong I sure hope so . Utley is my favorite. sorry if I upset you.

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  19. @mikemike

    This is OT, but I would have to say Utley is pretty much a classic hitter. His form is impeccable. His head is completely quiet, his stride is short and to the mound, and his hands have an incredibly short path to the ball with a slightly elevated follow through.

    If I was teaching my son to hit I would want him to look like Chase Utley.

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  21. In addition, always always take the best available talent…don’t target a specific opinion. Most of the guys drafted are gonna be a good 3-6 years away from contributing at the MLB level if they even pan out. Its quite foolish to target a 3B because we might need one in a year or two. Its not the NFL Draft.

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  22. Nepp
    Like one guy said a ready to go soon college 3rd baseman would be great. Too bad it isnt like football we could spare
    multiple picks to get the right guy.
    Does one exit? Like Troy Glaus you know the guy Ed should of picked instead of Drew. His first pro ball was in the winter leagues.

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  23. governator1 What you said is mostly true except Utley will
    many times invent new ways to get to the ball especially
    low. At least that is the way I see it (again not a slam but a tribute)

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  24. NEPP, curious on your opinion as to what best available talent means. An “All-Star” ceiling with lower probability of making the bigs (e.g. Hewitt, Gose) or an “everyday player” ceiling with higher probability (e.g. Worley). Or something else, perhaps.

    I’d personally like to see a mix, but it seems some teams, like the Red Sox more recently, have moved more and more towards taking potential all-stars with lower probability of making the bigs.

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  25. Hard to get excited without a first pick….but look what we did last year. We went and had a great draft, even excluding the first pick (yeah, that’s a not to subtle dig at Hewitt). Of course, we also had a suplemental, and two seconds last year – all before the 75th pick.

    So for the heck of it let’s throw out the first four picks of last year (24, 34, 51, 71) since they were all drafted before our first slot this year (75). We still managed to land Worley, Pettibone, May, Shreve, Stutes, Rosenberg, Schwimer, Saunderson, Cisco, and Cosart with the picks after that. That’s still a decent haul. Worley and Stutes have been very good in AA, and Schwimer and Rosenberg are still on track. The other guys are all on top 30 Phillies prospect lists as lottery tickets. If we’re just as agressive in the draft this year, we should get an OK haul. If we spend some additional money in Latin American (maybe on some middle infielders) then hey, we could have a middle of the pack talent infusion for the minors.

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  26. I am reading Keith Law and if I read it right he is saying this draft is top heavy in the first round, and then it falls off a lot. There was suppose to be some catchers but they have got hurt, and either the pitching is that good or the hitters are that bad, not much hitting in the prospects who are coming into the draft. If true what do you do if you are the phillies?

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  27. I’d like to see the Phils get some good corner infield talent into the system…some guys that we could project to 1st or especially 3rd would be nice. In general, I’d like to see a bunch of moderately over-slot signs in rounds 2-10 and 1 or 2 big slot busts after that. a few college guys with some projection wouldn’t hurt either (like worley).

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  28. something of interest in drafting or evaluating your system. most gm,s optimately want to have players in their minors that could form a mlb team. i.e. with the phillies marson c mayberry 1st donald 2nd ss – 3rd – rf brown cf taylor lf – pitching carrasco, kendrick, worley, bastardo, drabek, stutes, knapp, cloyd. – -. here were a ss 3rd baseman lf rd. and 2 pitchers from a complete team. so when looking at the draft look at ss 3rd of and pitching. of course this depends on any deals made. narrowing it further i would look at a college ss college 3rd and any level pitching with a shift to power pitchers.

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  29. when i said that i wanted the team to take some legit corner infielders, i meant by going over slot in later rounds, because really besides just the issue at third howard probably won’t be around after this contract exires and we’ll need a replacement at some point. not looking for a fix next year really, but a guy who could make it here in 4 or 5 years and contribute would be nice.

    ps.
    can any of our minor league first baseman hit homeruns? i’m really not sure, because no one in the system seems to be putting up any power from first base.

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  30. i swear you’d think, from reading here, that hewitt has played 4 years with a.000 average…the kid hasnt even played an official game this year…just cuz hes not in lakewood with gose and collier doesnt officially make him a bust….they were clearly more polished than hewitt…we knew hes raw, a tad old, and played HS ball in northeast, but can we at least give him SOME time before declaring him a foregone conclusive bust?i for 1, am not writing him off

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  31. In my oppinion there is nothing wrong with targeting a certain position like 3B. Allan how do we know who projects where? How could we ever, with any degree of certainty predict that the best projection is a “crede type player” Even the experts are wrong more often than right and superstars like pujols and piazza have come from the later rounds. Nepp i’m not talking about a philosophy for the whole draft of choosing specific position players. after the first half of the 1st round sometimes the difference between players is so subtle and you go w/ your gut as a gm. If it (talent level)was significant at our pick, of course you pick the significantly better player, but is it likely this will be the case where we are picking? I’m not so sure. I would never suggest that we should squeeze a 3d or 4th round talent into a 2nd round slot but if he’s projected somewhere where we are picking then lets grab him. If this type of player doesn’t exist then we should take the best available talent. Sorry nepp but you don’t always take the best available talent because you are suggesting that there is always a recognizable difference between every single individual player as far as talent. I wish it was that easy! Somebody could just rank every player by talent and when your pick comes up you take that player. I do agree that we do need to bust slot to make up for loss of 1st round pick.

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  32. What draft and follow? There’s no draft and follow. All this bemoaning no first round pick. Following the plan of most on here at the end of last season, they would still have that first round pick and likely be paying Jamie Moyer and Pat Burrell each $16 million a year. How would that plan be looking now?

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  33. This draft seems to be weak, I don’t know if overslot is the answer, after listenting to people who follow the draft ,there is a real lack of position players, who project to be able to hit at the next level. But from my little time on this blog and following what happens, It seems to me you just don’t know, The picking of players is so hard to judge, to take 50 players and sign about 33-35 pay them , and then maybe one or two gets a cup of coffee in the bigs is crazy, I never realize how hard it is to evalute talent.. So if I am the phillies, and we need infielders, I would be very careful in my spending, maybe use some of the money in the international market and put isome or all toward a fa third basemen next year. or target a young minor league thirdbasemen and try to put together a trade of one or two of our pitching prospects to get him.

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  34. Mikemike
    I heard some guys are injured maybe that is a chance to get someone. Wait and sign them when you are reasonably sure they are ok . Other than that go HS again if the draft is really that weak

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  35. just a note for those of you who get cn 8 every saturday at 1 pm there is a college doubleheader, i think its on sunday too. thats comcast 8 on my system.

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  36. Don’t forget, Phils did not have a first round pick last year–in a sense. Given that Hewitt is a long-long shot, we have judged our 08 draft as very good mainly on the guys after him. The key point in 09 is the thinness, not so much the lack of a first rounder. Sure you want a Pat Burrell or Hamels or Utley, but I think we can do OK and improve our system if we break slot on a couple guys, sign an unexpected international and draft smartly after the first round.

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  38. Even if you ignore Hewitt, we had a sandwich pick, an extra second round pick, and an extra 3rd round pick, and our own 2nd round pick was a little earlier than this year. So, we had 4 picks last year before our first this year.

    Might have to get it done internationally, rather than through draft. I like the idea of drafting and signing a lot of 2nd and 3rd round talent that falls for signability issues. A true top half of 1st round talent and likely even a bottom of 1st round talent that slides for signability reasons is likely snagged by Boston or Yankees before falling to us.

    3B likely is solved via trade or FA. Frankly, since signing Rolen who fell to us because most teams thought he was unsignable, the Phillies have misfired on an awful lot of 3B picks. We have had so many failed 3B of futures, with Mattair merely the latest. Howard is really the only good 1B we have ever drafted, unless you look at Burrell as a 1B. We haven’t spent a lot of primo picks on 1B, anyway.

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  39. most mlb 3rd basemen are locked up tight . A minor league horse has to be a trade answer

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  40. That is what I been saying if we can find a team with a good 3 basemen prospect, maybe we can make a deal with our excess of pitching prospect. also if Brown and Taylor keep advancing the phillies will have to make a decision on werth or victorino. a good problem to have, Maybe that’s how we get a third basemen by putting brown in center and using vic as trade bait.

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  41. mikemike imo vic is far too valuable to trade. you know what you have brown and taylor you dont. if you guys remember rolen screwed us by not telling us he wanted out so we didnt draft texeria when we were going to. btw brown and taylor may wind up being better than vic but i cant see it vic does so much more than what you see on paper. totally underated.

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  42. as much as i love victorino he is not a “fundamentally smart” baseball player. evidenced by his overthrowing of the cutoff man a few games back and leading to a run in a tight game. and his tendency to try and do too much at the plate with constant popups and uppercutting his swing. Now he is a very valuable part of the team his arm is a cannon but his judgement is sometimes questionable, but he is in no way too valuable to trade if necessary…I agree with shopping for a top minor league 3B eventually even if we have to swap a couple pitchers or a an outfield prospect..

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  43. “john from philly.ne Says:
    May 16, 2009 at 7:35 pm
    mikemike imo vic is far too valuable to trade. you know what you have brown and taylor you dont. if you guys remember rolen screwed us by not telling us he wanted out so we didnt draft texeria when we were going to.”

    Thats not exactly the reason they didn’t draft Texeria- they liked Floyd, and didn’t want to get screwed by Boras and his price tag.

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  44. “frozenrope Says:
    May 16, 2009 at 8:02 pm
    agree with shopping for a top minor league 3B eventually even if we have to swap a couple pitchers or a an outfield prospect..”

    Any third base prospect with a seemingly definite future isn’t available. Unless maybe someone thought highly of Alex Gordon- but the Royals have shown they are pretty good at being patient. Otherwise, the phillies are not a struggling team looking to unload for prospects- or even to trust trading for a prospect to fill in a hole. Its not their way.

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  45. reading all of the posts on hewitt cracks me up. gotta love philly fans. it is always all or nothing. my guess is the people bashing hewitt are the same jokers who suggested amaro was an idiot for swaping ibanez for burrell and our first. if i have learned anything from reading James’s blog it is that you can always find top talent if you bust slot in later rounds.

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  46. So it’s felix for a least two more years. Hewitt hasn’t been even given a full season who bashing him. Saying you would not take him isn’t bashing him. is it? If hewitt is a flop or failure that draft so far is looking real good. And one thing is a month isn’t a season or sorry 6 weeks, Ibanez is right now a great pickup. But the season isn’t 6 weeks, last I checked. At this time last year what were Pat the bats numbers? and how did he wind up. I can’t believe we are now talking about vic cause I mention that we will have two oufielder ready if they continue to play the way they are now and its a good problem, and said maybe we could trade vic for a third basemen. victorino isn’t getting traded and listing his faults is crazy. maybe its brown or taylor or werth who is moved.

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  47. Well, it depends upon a lot of factors including who you can get in return and contract status, but all else being equal I’d much rather have Werth than Victorino.

    One interesting point – as much as I’ve argued that Donald won’t hit well enough to be a starting third baseman for a contender, and as bad as he has been so far this year, the dearth of other options makes giving him a shot at the job a little more attractive. Though as I said before, I’d take Felix over Donald for the next couple years. (Especially if he can keep his OPS near .800 as it is now, though honestly I have my doubts as to whether he can.)

    It’s a moot point; it’s clear from useage patterns that the Phillies see Donald as a bench player, and they appear to be happy with Felix. So I think we can expect at least one more year (after this year) of Felix at third.

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  50. Whether or not Donald is seen as a bench player shouldn’t matter to us or him. He needs to make it to the show and stay there. Most don’t doubt that happening. It’s all up to him what his limit and ceiling are. If you just look at 2/3 of our starting outfield you can see how much it doesn’t matter what a club initially wants from you.

    If Donald can play, play well and make himself a key contributor by being a contact hitter and playing good defense his lack of power wouldn’t matter as much at 3rd. The Phillies currently have a fair amount of power in the lineup. Where it wouldn’t hurt to have someone in there who doesn’t look to pull and jack it at each at bat.

    Hey, we won a World Series with Feliz and Ruiz as our 7 and 8 hitters during respective off years.

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  51. I think the wildcard here is Amaro. I think LaMar, Wolever and Gillick (he’s not completely gone – he’s an advisor) would be of the mindset to follow the same strategy in 2009 that they did in 2008. Amaro could go either way (1) he could sign on to show that anything Arbuckle can do, his adminstration can do; or (2) he could act like Arbuckle was foolish and go in a different direction (hello college and preferably Stanford players). I think the former is (75-25) more likely. If you gave me a preference, I’d still prefer the Phillies to invest 750K in a drafted American HS player than a Latin American free agent.

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  52. It wouldn’t hurt to reload w/ a few more arms in the system. My gut feeling is that we are gonna lose a couple pitchers (in the top 30) before the trade deadline.

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  53. Agree with halophan above. We need starting pitching help on the big club, and none of our minor league guys are really close enough to come in and contribute sub 5 ERA starting pitching….so we’ll trade JV pitching for major league experience. Just hope we don’t over pay because it’s not like we’re going to add a lot of depth back in with this draft being A. thin on talent and B. thin on top picks for the Phils.

    Yes, we’re probably selling Hewitt way to soon…but lets be honest, he’s a 9F. Sky high potential, almost no probability of success.

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  56. Don’t see any change in the Phillies drafting philosophy moving forward. If Amaro had come from outside the organization then maybe there would be some change but he’s been involved in the process for many years and is apparently in agreement with the approach.

    I expect to see the same interest in toolsy position players and tall, stong pitchers.

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  58. DPhrey Isnt it bad enough we are stuck with Blanton why bring in some heavy weight anchor(pun intended). For now Happ and one more round . With Romero back and Durbin in long releif I would at least try Bastardo and or Worley before I brought in a long time replacement. If I could get a rental cheap on a Salary dump ok but dont want to hurt my corp
    young players until I know who is who.
    And Charlie needs to be a manager not a buddy for this year anyway

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  59. As far as the draft the Phils have avoided the college abused
    pitchers for the most part. why change
    No less than three 3rd base prospects, hurt,barely signable,
    money grubbers as long as they hit and field

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  60. ***Yes, we’re probably selling Hewitt way to soon…but lets be honest…he’s [got] almost no probability of success.***

    statements like this drive me up a wall. armchair scouts who know nothing about a player, =have never seen him play and know nothing about what it takes to make it to the mlb think that they know more than pat gillick about a prospect’s ability to make it to the big leagues. i mean, does anyone else also see how ridiculous that statement is? “it is too early to tell, but…he has no probability of success.” if it is too early to tell, then don’t make a definitive statement. let the kid play. he is 19 with serious tools. give him a chance.

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  61. I am trying to remember, was Amaro’s father a scout in latin america or involved in scouting can’t remember. Hewitt has not play more than half a season in the GCL. he hasn’t proved anything for any one to make that statement just as if he hit 330 in that league to annointed him a superstar both would be ilogical statements. Boy I wish that I could spell.

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  62. PP why would the phillies sign a 36 year old catcher, do you think it is that they don’t have as much faith in marson or feel he isn’t ready, very confuseing to me. Blacko I believe is how you spell it was just signed.

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  63. It’s just a matter of math. The Phillies currently have around 24 pitchers in Extended Spring Training (though a handful might be hurt) and only 3 catchers (Francisco Diaz, Jorge Guerra, and Jean Carlos Rodriguez). Right now I suspect they are just looking for someone who can catch the ball for purposes of drills, etc.

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  64. 1- I like what PP Fan and RodeoJones are saying.

    2- For the love of God stop with these 3B prospects. This isn’t football. Drafting a 3B will do nothing for this current team. Plus many good 3B players started out as something else. So by drafting a SS, we could potentially have our answer to 3B.

    3- I think we should pick up a mix of cheap polished college players and big money youngsters who might have fallen due to price early on. Then go after the Cosarts of the world late. Pitching, Pitching, Pitching. I wouldn’t care if we drafted 40 pitchers. Go after the arms. We plucked Werth and Vic up off other teams. We signed Ibanez and Feliz off the FA market. We traded for Stairs/Bruntlett. We can find hitters. We need to grow arms like crazy.

    4- We have few lefties in our system. We need a good lefty pitcher. We also need to stick to the prototypical righty pitcher body. Tall guys who can fill out alot.

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  65. I agree with DPhrey on Hewitt (it wasn’t a definitive statement, though I know what you mean PP Fan). He’s 20. Lots of potential. Seems unlikely to achieve it, though. I can’t wait for him to prove me wrong.

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  67. 113- 40 pitchers would be ok w/ you? so we should have a good mix of hs and college players but not a good mix of pitchers and position players? i guess we should ignore a 3B prospect who falls to us because we need to add to our strength, pitching. we have about 15 legit prospects that are pitchers maybe 5 will be succesful and 2 of those 5 will probably be in the pen. where are we going to put them. maybe you want another logjam like the outfield. Yes we can trade them but you never get much for pitching prospects unless they are elite prospects, otherwise you have to package them and still not come away with an elite star. I say if a 3B man or ss with 3B potential comes to us lets go get him instead of going out of our way to avoid him as 113 seems to be suggesting. besides the draft isn’t about what it can do for the “current team” it’s about what it can do for our future team.

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  68. 113- 40 pitchers would be ok w/ you? so we should have a good mix of hs and college players but not a good mix of pitchers and position players? i guess we should ignore a 3B prospect who falls to us because we need to add to our strength, pitching. maybe you want to create another logjam like the outfield. Yes we can trade them but you never get much for pitching prospects unless they are elite prospects, otherwise you have to package them and still not come away with an elite star. I say if a 3B man or ss with 3B potential comes to us lets go get him instead of going out of our way to avoid him as 113 seems to be suggesting. besides the draft isn’t about what it can do for the “current team” it’s about what it can do for our future team.

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  70. PP Fan, I think the scouts, including the Phils, will say the same thing that I just did. He’s got All-Star potential written all over him (9), but the probability of reaching that level is about 10% (F). That’s not writting him off, it’s just calling it like it is. A lottery ticket.

    No Wheels- Ok, you won me over. See if we can plug the holes with what we got. Happ to rotation. Bastardo to his spot in the pen.

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  71. I have a question. I have been going over the recent drafts to see what the guys who didn’t sign are doing. In the post it tells of them going to certain college. But when I look can’t find them. Do some not make the squad as freshman. in other words like high school, do they have freshman teams. guys like blain o’brien and cedric johnson can’t find.

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  72. Maybe that makes two of us Dphrey.
    This is my first year here so know little about the draft. I like the ole Buddy Ryan theory
    If you need something draft three and see who raises to the top. And corner infielders do it for me. Subject of course to common sense. I wonder where this Feliz thing is going . I am not a fan but i am not blind either. Maybe he has bought us a extra year or two to try to develop somenone

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  73. I agree about feliz nowheels. If he ends up somewhere around .270-20-80 with his amazing glove, i’m in for option year being picked up but we still need to draft some position players, particularly infielders. If there are pitchers with huge upside at our pick we have to consider them, then use some of our subsequent picks for infielders if they are deserving of being chosen at that spot, if not the best available pick whatever that means. it seems to apply more to basketball and even to some extent football. In basketball there is a huge difference between a #5 pick and a #25 pick, in football not as much and in baseball it seems to make even less difference. A higher risk # 25 may have as much talent as a #5 but a little bit raw and wind up being a stud. Look at our top guys from last years draft, the # 1 may wind up being the cream but right now there are probably at least 5 guys from that draft i would rank higher than him. So lets stop pretending that loading up on arms at the expense of targetting position players that might slip to some of our respective slots is the way to draft. We need a good mix and if a player who was projected much higher for various reasons such as a past injury or signability issues lets take a chance on them wether they are a position player or pitcher.

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  74. Marky Mark-

    I was exagerating a tad with 40 pitchers, but with pitchin gso thinned as it is and the ability to get a bat as easy, …at least easier than finding an arm, as it is then I say pitching should always be a premium. Always. Plus drafting a 3B prospect can mean little if he doesn’t stick at 3B. Burrell was a 3B. How did he do there?

    Yes while we need position players and could not possibly draft all those pitchers, we should 8/9 out of 10 times take a pitcher over a hitter. The game is 27 outs not 27 runs, and this franchise needs more of the former not the latter.

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  75. I’m starting to really like Deven Marrero. He kind of looks like Adrian Cardenas, though not that good of a hitter as him when he was drafted. He has a nice line drive swing with excellent bat speed that should generate some power.

    Here is some more info and tape on him.

    (page down to number 40)
    http://www.baseballfactory.com/top100/?page=2

    He should be able to play 3B(I’m not sure if he has the hitting ability). He’s regarded as one of the best defensive SS in the draft and throws 93.

    His first cousin is Chris Marrero and is said to consider Rey Ordonez a member of his extended family.

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  76. sec 113: 8/9 out of 10 seems a little high. As far as 3d baseman i guess i mean guys that are good fielding 3b men that can project to hit or 2B/ss’s who can hit very well with power but don’t project to stay there due to range or glove. of course they would need to have nice arms as well. I don’t know this for sure but i’m guessing scouts kn ew burrell wouldn’t be a legitamate 3b man. I would draft mostly infielders of my position players unless an OF really stood out, this way we may have several potential 3b man for the future.

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  77. Marky Mark-

    Yeah I would definately draft tad too many pitchers but every team every year always needs pitching. Plus you can always trade a few pitchers for a hitter. I just think we need to build a rotation and a few home grown positional players and buy positional players and a few arms.

    Put it this way, 2/5 our rotation is homegrown…well now 3/5 with Happ in there, I would like it to be no worse than 3/5, prefer 4/5 homegrown. That way if you have a bad pitcher and he’s homegrown he is probably not making much and easier to get rid of.

    As for positional players I would like us to just grab a ton of athletic players. Guys who have tools.

    Just because we don’t have a pick till 75 doesn’t mean this draft is a bust. Look at Brown/Howard/Madson/Taylor. The draft is really long and as long as our scouts do their homewrok there is never an excuse as to why we can’t have at least a middle of the road draft.

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  78. checked out the link from ryan howard and 2 guys stood out. 3bman of course. check out #48 and 59 these are the kind of guys i’d love to get if they fell to us. #59 even pitches in the mid 90’s. that sounds like the phils kind of player(2way). Lots of intriguing arms as well! I’m still excited even w/out a #1.

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  79. This may all be a moot point if the phils pick up a young 3bman like wood from the angels then i would not waste a pick on a 3bman. It would cost us a lot though in prospects. on a side note i know it’s way too early even to speculate but has anyone else had just a fleeting thought that harmon has “figured it out” and has the glove and power to be a 3d baseman? I’m not sure if his arm projects there, does anyone know about his arm strength? I think he’s batting .412 in his last 10 games.

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