Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. We break from your regularly scheduled programming to introduce a new feature that will run from time to time on Phuture Phillies: “A Closer Look,” wherein we’ll break down some numbers, hopefully drum up a little discussion, and possibly even jump to a few conclusions on some players who may normally fall through the cracks of regular discussion.
I thought Freddy Galvis might be an interesting name to kick off this series with — especially given his Opening Night home run on Thursday. Granted, he’s not your classic “under-the-radar” player, but he’s well outside the organizational Top 10, so let’s dive in and see what we can come up with.
The Phillies signed Galvis out of Venezuela in 2006 for an undisclosed bonus. The book on him then — as it is now — was that he was a potential Gold Glove shortstop, but had a lot of work to do with the bat. Undaunted by his age and physical stature (he’s listed at 5’10”, 154 lbs.), the Phillies assigned Galvis to the NYPL his first full season, and then to the SAL in his second campaign. The results looked like this:
2007 (A-, Age 17): .203/.255/.252 — 6.5% K — 14.0% BB — 0 HR — .049 ISO — .154 SecA (156 PA)
2008 (A, Age 18): .238/.300/.288 — 7.8% K — 12.7% BB — 3 HR — .050 ISO — .151 SecA (523 PA)
Not exactly an awe-inspiring set of numbers, to be sure. Still, Galvis was playing against much older prospects, and he continued to get rave reviews on his glovework. And digging a bit deeper into the numbers, there is some cause for optimism. Both the walk and strikeout rate were good, indicating that he has something of a discerning eye as well as good contact ability. The problem came in his batted ball data.
Career: 56.5% GB — 11.3% LD — 31.7% FB (11.2% IF/F)
The above has left Galvis with a career BABIP of just .265. Given that line drives fall in for hits somewhere around 70% of the time, the low line drive ratio is dragging down Galvis’ BABIP, and in turn, his BA, OBP, SLG, etc. Such a large ground ball ratio, in combination with a fairly substantial percentage of infield flies, suggests to me that Galvis is being overpowered by pitchers. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, given his tender age and aforementioned stature.
So what’s the solution? Galvis is never going to be much of a power threat, but given his contact skills, there is hope that as his frame fills out, he’ll be able to more consistenly make hard contact that will produce a greater number of line drives (and a lesser number of grounders and infield flies). His spray charts — vs. LHP here, and vs. RHP here — indicate that he’s certainly not a dead pull hitter; he has the ability to, well, spray the ball from both sides of the plate (recall that he’s a switch hitter). Given those contact skills, which would allow him to protect in two-strike counts, I wonder if he would be better served by being a bit more selective early in counts, and looking for pitches to really drive.
So be sure to keep an eye on Freddy Galvis this year in Clearwater. A .270/.330/.360 type of year is certainly not out of the question — especially if he’s been able to add some muscle to his frame and make some minor adjustments — and would represent a major step forward for this young shortstop.
Phuture Phillies 
Speaking of shortstops . . . I find it very interesting that the Phillies have not yet played Jason Donald at third base – the box scores indicate that he’s played short each game.
Normally, this would be a no brainer, a decent hitting shortstop beats a decent hitting third baseman any day of the week. But short’s taken at the major league level. I’m surprised we haven’t seen him play third. Perhaps he’s still working on that in practice and will play third in games fairly soon.
Still, I find it to be a little surprising.
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He’s got more value as a SS than 3B externally.
Give him some starts at 3B, but keep him at SS where other teams will value him higher, therefore allowing you to potentially parlay a strength (Middle INF depth) into depth at another area (i.e. SP prospect).
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After seeing Galvis the past two springs I noticed not only was he a little more solid in the body but he was also hitting the ball with much more authority. So I agree this just might be the year Freddy “breaks” out with nice(not great) offensive season for Clearwater, similar to the numbers you suggested.
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As for Galvis, he’s my #1 guy to keep an eye on that no one is keeping an eye on. The lead-off HR to start his 2009 campaign grabbed my attention like no other. IF this man can develop some power, grow into his body a bit, we’re talking a serious jump up the prospect list here. He becomes exponentially more valuable with every improvement at the plate.
And I think he can do it. He’s got good BB/K rates and indicators that he can do better; i.e. he had a very good 2nd half last year to atone for a very miserable/suspect 1st half. I think this is his year to shine and start to garner some serious praise internally and externally.
What’s his speed on the basepaths like? Can he steal basis at a 70%+ clip?
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Watched a lot of Galvis and Donald in ST. To me Freddy is the the SS of the future at the major league level. His fielding is major league quality now and his bat will follow. In BP seemed to have more power from the right side but his opening night homer in the FSL was from the left at Brighthouse. On the other hand Donald had adequate range and arm at SS but not quick enough at 3B. He would seem to me to be more of a natural at 2B following the career path defensively of a Sandberg. But he can hit at the ML level right now.
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If he can hit .270 at Clearwater while working that glove he will become a serious prospect. Either way I’d have to think he’s almost a sure thing to make the majors in some fashion. I could see him hitting .240 and batting ninth for a 2nd tier AL team AT THE VERY WORST.
I love the jump to conclusions mat.
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i find it funny that the first post started…”Speaking of shortstops . . . [let’s talk about] Jason Donald”.
Why does this generation have such ADD? We weren’t speaking of shortstops. we were speaking about Galvis. let’s try to stick on the topic for this post please. it is fine to reference other players, but just do so as a comparison, not shifting topics.
regarding galvis, it is exciting to see his development and i agree with being encouraged by his walk and k rates. a run saved on defense is just as good as a run created, so if this guy is truly a wizard (pun intended), then i do think that he has a good shot. as a basis of comparison (and not to shift topics), ozzie smith averaged .235 BA in his first 6 seasons. so it is not unprecedented.
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Galvis is one of my favorite Phillies prospects (D’Arnaud being another). I love throw back players. Though I wonder if his upside is more John McDonald than Omar Vizquel (as others have mentioned in the past).
I expect to be pleasantly surprised by him this season.
On the site overall (how’s that for ADD): I must say I like the direction the site has taken so far this season. First the game reports and now discussions on specific players in-depth. Overall, a very good growth pattern to take and I love checking it out every morning.
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To me Galvis is our version of Omar Vizquel…..
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I’m not as high on Galvis as others on this site simply because I’m worried about his bat ever becoming good enough for a ML regular.
I know everyone likes to use Ozzie/Visquel comparisons but we live in a different era. In today’s game, the Visquels/Ozzie’s of the world don’t become everyday players because they don’t hit enough!!
For example, look at all the complaints we hear regularly on this site about Carlos Ruiz’s .220 average even though he is routinely praised for his defensive abilities while playing a defensive position.
Right now, Galvis compares more to a Thomas Perez type of role player.
Now that I’m “trashed” him, I’ll end by adding that he is still very young and does have the chance to grow into a decent enough hitter to get by in a good line-up.
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Well, I’ve been accused of a lot of things before, but never of having ADD (although I suppose it’s possible). Agreed that the post was specifically about Galvis, but since the entire point of a minor league system is to either directly (promotion) or indirectly (trade) fuel the big league team, it’s hard to have a complete discussion about the future of the team without discussing others who play the position in the system.
This is all supposed to be fun and having a free-flowing discussion is (for me at least), part of that enjoyment.
That having been said, I generally agee with the comments on Galvis. He’s clearly a stud in the field, so any advances in his hitting will make an enormous difference. At the very least, he’ll probably be somebody’s utility man. At the very best, he’s probably another Omar Vizquel, which isn’t too bad.
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****I’m not as high on Galvis as others on this site simply because I’m worried about his bat ever becoming good enough for a ML regular.****
That’s why I go with John McDonald as a more likely upside personally. I don’t care for comparing any prospect to a HoFer or even a potential HoFer like Vizquel. We get that all too much with the following (Taylor reminds me of Dave Winfield, Galvis could be the next Vizquel, D. Brown is similar to Darryl Strawberry..straw was on a HoF path till the whole coke issues FWIW.., etc etc). Though it is fun to dream. The kid has a phenomenal glove at SS though. I was stunned at the plays he made when I saw him.
ADD again: Hanzawa is quietly overlooked but is also a decent SS prospect.
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I think Cesar Izturis is a reasonable downside for Galvis. Upside is hard to say, because as previously noted you don’t see his type often in the majors anymore. Vizquel’s banded about only because he’s the only recent glove-first shortstop to have a long career as a regular.
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Nice pice Friar, I like having this as a forum we can talk about a certain player rather than in just daily discussions, then by the end of the season we can go back and see how things turned out.
That said, Galvis’s glove is certainly intriguing as well as his age, but I agree with the Izturis comp, but somebody I’d love to see him model his game after is Ryan Theriot (5’11, 175). The word for Theriot is scrappy, and like Galvis, he fights off a lot of pitches, and gets on base because the ball finds holes on the ground and he hustles. If Freddy can add 15-20 pounds, I think that could be reasonable comp, seeing as Theriot’s only had a combined 4 home runs the past 2+ seasons with a .287 average. I’ll take it.
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I think it’s way too early to judge Freddy. But he won’t be the shortstop in Philly if Jimmy re-signs when the time comes. Don’t forget, Jimmy was the same age as Freddy at the same level back in the late-1990s.
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can anyone say Larry Bowa deja vu all over again, same words same thoughts, Same results lets hope
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One thing to keep an eye on. The FSL is a very pitcher friendly league in general, the parks are large, the air is heavy, and offense is generally down compared to, say, the SAL or the Eastern League.
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PP Fan – I wasn’t even going to post a comment but when I saw JD got more talk then the subject, I had to chime something into the forum.
I think in general, it’s rude to the guys who write here for the love of the game to derail their topics.
Perhaps daily discussions need to be brought back?
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NEPP: Hanzawa is 23 and playing at Low-A. Considering Galvis deserves the time at Clearwater this year, Hanzawa would have to be jumped to Double-A by this summer to be considered any sort of prospect.
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I don’t understand doesn’t have range for third, but adquete shortstop. Galvis has been seen by some, how is his speed on the bases, But can’t figure out say, if he is ready in two years. jimmy is still top three what happens to him. Hanzawa seems like a interesting prospect too. Hopefully out of those picks plus donald this team can get a third basemen it would really round out the top club. What I hope happens is carrasco takes meyers place and drabek is in place for moyer with galvis or donald or hanzawa the next third basemen in 2010 or 2011 ,
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I think it was very telling that the Phillies moved Overbeck over Mattair to Clearwater but moved Galvis and not Hanzawa to Clearwater. Hanzawa was the one actually playing with the higher group for most of spring training but was then bumped back on the final rosters. It is also very interesting that the Phils have left Galvis in the 2 hole for now. These moves should tell all of us what they think of Galvis. By the way, I’m sure Donald is practicing at third and will play some 3B in the future but what’s the rush. Its only been a week. Give the kid a chance to get used to the league playing his natural position (although I agree he’ll most likely be a 2B for most of his career, not in Philly).
My two break out players this year are Naughton and Rizzotti. They both looked to me like they can really hit.
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Savior, I wasn’t sure if you got your answer on the SB%. Last year, Freddy stole 67% of the bases he attempted (14 for 21).
I like Freddy but I’m not putting him in my top 10 yet. He’s young so I’ve got time to move him up. My son is nearly 17 and his height and weight compare to Freddy. My son isn’t going to knock the ball over anyone’s head either. A little work in the weight room and add some pounds and he could have a little pop.
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Let’s play the comparison game with Galvis and other recent SS prospects with similar body types and age for level of play
Galvis-18-5’10-154-SAL-.238/.300/.288
Clearwater website has him listed at 168 lb’s now.
The Good:
Player A-18-6’0-160-SAL-.307/.337/.472
Player A-19-FSL-.288/.343/.444
Player B-18-6’0-185-CARL/CALL-.257/.338/.343
Player B-19-TL-.295/.350/.367
No comparison and no one is comparing him to Jose Reyes(A) or Andrus(B).
The Average
Player C-18-5’9-175-SAL-.262/.297/.305
Player C-19-FSL-.308/.337/.422
Not far off in terms of age 18 SAL production, but the FSL numbers are more than any of us are expecting from Freddy. Not a bad comparison though, it’s Cesar Izturis.
The Flameout
Player D-18-5’11-160-SAL-.233/.324/.367—Only 69 PA’s
Player D-19-FSL-.245/.330/.331
Anderson Machado.
If a .330/.360 line is considered hopeful this year for Freddy, I would argue his potential is somewhere between Machado and Izturis. The difference between the two being K rate.
I included Reyes and Andrus, two guys we can all agree were in the highest prospect category during their minor league stint, to argue that slugging percentage might be the better indicator of future performance at this point. The idea being that Freddy’s lack of power isn’t because of his body type, we can see he’s not the smallest or largest of this group, but that either naturally or in an effort to generate contact he’s probably swinging a slower bat. If it’s a natural characteristic, then you can hold onto the idea that it might “click”, but I’m not sure the growth is going to make that much of a difference. The fear is that it’s a conscious effort and that he’ll alter his approach resulting in lower contact and BB rate.
My guess is that unless we see a real uptick in his BB% (which would indicate a discerning eye vs. what may just well be lower level pitchers that struggle with their control), we can consider him a mid-range prospect at best.
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I think I was the one who made the John McDonald comp for Galvis during the ranking discussion. But that’s still a useful player, and he’s got plenty of time to add enough stick for a regular job.
I like this feature idea, btw. Nicely done.
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We got a nice little discussion going here, which was my goal. Thanks to all who joined in the conversation, and if anyone has any future requests or suggestions, feel free to pass them along. To jump into the fray for a bit…
kruker: Thanks for that interesting set of comparisons. Unless Freddy adds some pop to his swing, his ceiling as an offensive player is certainly limited, as you pointed out. I think most of us would take a Cesar Izturis type offensive player at this point, provided Freddy continues his stellar work with the leather.
The Savior and Bellman: it doesn’t look like Freddy’s going to be much of a stolen base threat, as 75% is generally the cutoff for base stealing efficiency. Still, he could always become a smart baserunner, one capable of swiping 10 bags or so a year by reading situations and taking advantage of slow-move pitchers.
Oh, and the John McDonald comp is a good one. McDonald, of course, occupies a soft spot in my heart, as the lone remaining player in MLB to come from my alma mater’s now defunct baseball program.
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Galvis is 1-3 with another double so far tonight…FWIW.
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Thanks for the comps Kruker.
I like this ‘closer look’ idea. Some off the radar guys might be Justin De Fratus, Tyson Brummett, Rob Roth.
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Is it possible that a glove first short stop will become more common place now that roids are mostly out of the game?
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Phenix Says:
Is it possible that a glove first short stop will become more common place now that roids are mostly out of the game?
Have you noticed any major league SS falling off the charts
to suggest halted drug use . I dont
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PF: Thanks for your look-see at the prospects, with interesting commentary.
On Galvis: it seems the FO is moving him along without delay. It would be–to me– a crime not to re-sign J-Roll who I view as the best SS in MLB.
No other SS carries the same great group of baseball abilities: best fielding, one of the best arms, not-mental-mistake prone, 40 plus base stealer, potential to repeat his 30 HR season, team leader/spokeperson, the glue that holds the defense together, a wonderfully outspoken guy with full support of his teammates, etc., etc.
And, he’ll still be in his youth of near 30 in time for re-upping.
So, I view Galvis as a tradeable commodity worth a lot should he follow his fantasy fielding with some solid offense. Shortstops like that draw plenty of salivating interest…on the tradeable market when the get to AAA ball..
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Link to Freddy Galvis an EVEN CLOSER look.
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