Today we’ll continue the review of the Phillies affiliates in 2008 with a stop in Williamsport. As with the GCL review, I want to hit on 5 key performances both on the offensive side and the pitching side and then maybe a few quick hits. Someone had mentioned in the GCL review a question about DICE and what it was. To get the full info, just read this. Its not accurate to assume that you can compare all ERA’s on one team and say that they are adjusted for defense because all the pitchers played in front of the same defense. DICE just eliminates this blip because its defense-independent. It makes it easier to compare players on different teams as well, which is really one of the biggest benefits of prospect evaluation and using a system like I’ve developed. So anyway, onto the review.
Monthly Archives: October 2008
Fall League Update
Phillie prospects continue in the Arizona Fall League with Mesa, the Phillies affiliate at 3-3 after the first week. Looking at how Phillies prospects performed, OF Quintin Berry received his first at bats on Saturday and went 1-4 with a double, rbi and stolen base. Jeremy Slayden played in games both Friday (0-4, K), and Saturday (1-3,r,hr,3rbi) and his average stands at .273 after Week One. Jason Donald played SS both Friday (2-3,2r,13b,1rbi,cs) and Monday (2-4,rs,rbi,3b,2K) and is hitting a lofty .357 without an error thus far.
ANdrew Carpenter started the game Saturday and went 2 innings giving up a run on 2 hits, walking one. 24 of his 37 pitches were thrown for strikes. Also pitching Saturday were Tyson Brummett, who went a scoreless inning, walking one and striking out 2, and Sergio Escalona, who also pitched a scoreless inning, walking one and striking out one. Pat Overholt made his second scoreless appearance on Friday, going 2 innings without giving up a ruin or a hit. He walked one and struck out two.
Affiliate Review: GCL Phillies
Today I’m going to start my reviews of the 6 Phillies minor league affiliates. I was originally planning to do something more in depth, but I haven’t quite finished my new system yet. Its to the point where I can use it to discuss the players in fairly good detail, but I still have more work to do before I churn out Top 30’s and get into the final analysis of our prospects heading into 2009. So what I’m going to do is talk about the 5 best performances for hitters and the 5 best performances for pitchers at the level, and then cover any high profile players who didn’t fall in that range. It should be easy to follow, so lets get started.
Overvalued prospects in 2008
The last two days we looked at guys who may have performed better than their surface numbers would indicate, so today we’ll look at a few guys who maybe are overvalued based on their surface numbers. Don’t take offense if someone you love ends up here, as I’m sure we have different methods to evaluate prospects. Affiliate wrapups start Monday.
Arizona Fall League Update
While I am not going to get into the won-loss record of the Mesa Solar Sox, lets take a look at the performance of the Phillies prospects who are playing in the AFL, a league that clearly has good talent and competition. Mesa has now played three games and Jason Donald has appeared in all three with a start at SS and a start at 3B. Thus far he is hitting .143(1-7), with 2 strikeouts in his 7 at-bats. He has also been caught stealing once. So far, so good in the field, with limited chances thus far. Outfielder Jeremy Slayden has received one start, going 2-4, with a double and an RBI.
Three pitching prospects has thrown thus far. Tyson Brummett worked in relief, a role he is not used to and went 1.1 innings giving up a run on 2 hits, while striking out one, taking the loss in yesterdays’ game. Sergio Escalona also threw 1.1 innings in relief giving up a run on one hit and struck out 2. Pat Overholt, likely to be in Lehigh Valley next year, threw a shutout inning, allowing one hit and a walk in the game yesterday.
Look for another update Monday or Tuesday.
Undervalued pitchers in 2008
As promised, today we’ll dig into the pitching aspect and try to find out who might have performed a bit better that what we see on the surface, ie, just looking at ERA and WHIP and wins. The main statistic I’ll use today is DICE, which I’ve discussed before. DICE is basically a form of component ERA which tries to determine what a pitcher’s ERA should have been based on the hits, walks, strikeouts and home runs he allowed. It’s a good indicator of luck, which pitchers were fortunate and which got a bit unlucky. For a more detailed explanation, go here. And again, just a reminder, this is mainly to try and find guys who are undervalued. A guy like Carlos Carrasco was expected to pitch well, so he’s not really undervalued.
Undervalued positional players in 2008
Kind of a lame title for today’s article, but essentially I wanted to point out 3 players who kind of had under the radar seasons. Guys we didn’t focus on, or that we maybe focused on in a not so positive light. I’ll explain all of the choices using some of the new statistics I’ve been focusing on as well as using the more basic numbers. I decided to narrow it down to 3, so lets get started…
Scheduling note
Here is what I have in mind for the rest of the week:
Wednesday – Undervalued positional performances in 2008
Thursday – Undervalued pitching performances in 2008
Friday – GCL review/introduction of my new prospect evaluation system
I’ve been spending a lot of time working on my new system, and I’ll start to explain it/unveil it on Friday. My goal is to do a review of each affiliate, and my Top 30 this year will be heavily influenced by how the player fares in my new system. Eventually I’ll do a Top 30 prospects for every team, but obviously won’t go into the same detail as I will for the Phillies list. My plan is to start the Reader Top 30 for 2009 sometime after the AFL ends, in between the holidays when we have some down time.
Arizona Fall League
The Arizona Fall League gets under way tomorrow with the Phillies affiliate the Mesa Solar Sox, taking on Pheonix. The Solar Sox have eight Phils prospects on their roster, a roster which they share with the Braves, Cubs, Marlins, and Tigers. Phils pitching prospects with the Solar Sox will be Tyson Brummett, Andrew Carpenter, Sergio Escalona, and Pat Overholt. Lou Marson will see time behind the plate, and look for Jason Donald to see some time at 2B, SS, and 3B. Both Jeremy Slayden and Quintin Berry have been asked to particpate and will see time in the Outfield. Look for updates at least once a week, and hopefully more during the AFL season.
Hawaii Winter Baseball update
Quick update on the progress of our 3 guys in Hawaii
Michael Taylor: 15 AB — .133/.350/.333 — 5 BB — 2 K — 1 HR — 1 SB
Dominic Brown: Has not played (at least I don’t see his name on the stat sheet)
Chris Kissock: 5.0 IP — 1.80 ERA — 0 H — 2 BB — 4 K
Phuture Phillies 