Top 30 Prospects Updated

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With 3 prospects from my Top 30 traded, it was time for an update. The next update will come after the trading deadline, as I suspect more moves are in the works. Again, a quick thanks to everyone who stopped in for the first time, and for those who continue to check in regularly. The Blanton discussion obviously got heated, but I think its important to remember that we’re all Phillies fans at the end of the day, and we’re all rooting for Big Joe to pitch well. Also, best wishes to Adrian, Josh and Matt in Oakland, and we’ll continue to check in on them and see how they are doing as the season progresses. Have a nice weekend.

55 thoughts on “Top 30 Prospects Updated”

  1. I realize Brad Harman has not hit well enough so far this year to merit top prospect status but i believe he is still in the Phillies plans as a middle infielder / utility guy. He seems to have some trouble adjusting to a jump in level but he may surprise once again in the second half. Now that Cardenas is gone I hope he emerges so that he has value either for the Phillies or some other team.

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  2. I definitely think Harman’s presence made parting with AC a little less difficult for Amarbuckle.

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  3. Everyone weighed in on the trade but I was traveling. I’m definitely not a fan of Blanton but who else was there to go after? Bedard and hope he’s healthy (and not too much of a jerk)? No; Burnett and his contract? No; Wolf, who looks shot? No; Who then? Everyone agrees that Eaton stinks and we need to improve the rotation. I think taking a shot with Blanton who won about 35 games the last three years without a good offense is a good gamble. I love this site as mucvh as anyone but I don’t think the three prospects we gave up are as good as we think they are. Cardenas should be a solid major leaguer but will he be a star? He’ll never hit with power and he’ll never be a great glove. I’m not sure any longer that he’ll be better long term than Donald, who is a level higher and still hitting and is a better fielder. Outman was already determined to not be good enough to be a starter and Spencer has serious holes in his swing at this point. I think you have to say that its a reasonable gamble. A year ago everyone said Lohse was a pig. How does everyone feel about him know? You never know with pitchers.

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  4. I don’t think it’s fair or accurate to say that the conclusion was reached that Outman would not be good as a starter. He was probably better as a starter than as a reliever and I think he’ll end up starting again for Oakland. He was moved to relief out of desperation – the Phillies felt that they needed, and did not have, another lefthander to compliment Romero in the pen.

    I know the current projections are the Cardenas will not hit for power and will never be good at second. I recall the same things being said about Chase Utley. Cardenas is too young for us to know exactly how he will develop as a player, but his ceiling as an offensive player is pretty high. I view him as a B+/A- prospect and Outman is a B/B+ prospect. I am less troubled about trading them than I am about what we got in return. Perhaps the Phils see something in Blanton that makes them think he can succeed. But, honestly, it is kind of arrogant to think that the Phillies can bring something out in him that eluded Billy Beane’s staff. I think, truthfully, they hope that Blanton can return to last year’s form and become a reliable 3/4 guy for the next two and a half years. That would be great, but we still don’t have our number 2 man.

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  5. fyi – I expect we haven’t heard the last of Brad Harman. The Phillies really disrupted his rhythm this season by promoting him just when he needed time to adjust to a higher level of competition. I expect Harman, along with Michael Taylor, to show the greatest level of improvement in the second half of the year and I think he has a decent shot of becoming a good player. He is still pretty young and appears to be a good athlete.

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  7. So on some of our prospects that I just had a chance to watch in person:

    1. C Travis d’Arnaud: He was pretty impressive behind the plate and he has a very quick pickoff move to both 1st and 3rd which he demonstrated several times…it reminded me of Pudge when he loved to catch runners napping after a pitch. At the plate he had a good swing and good strike/ball recognition.

    2. 3B Cody Overbeck: Very stiff at 3B defensively, below average range and stiff hands. He had linedrive go off his glove and muffed another very easy ground ball. There were a couple of others that he simply didn’t even come close to getting to. On the plays he did make, he still looked overwhelmed at times. Good bat though. He absolutely crushed a ball well over the LF wall and went 3 for 4 on the night.

    3. 1B Jeremy Hamilton: Smooth in the field, he committed one error on a smoked shot well to the left of the bag that he had no business even getting a glove on (I blame a bad official scorer). He presented a good target for the fielders and saved a couple of bad throws from being errors. Very athletic for a 1B. Didn’t look too great at the plate and his swing was too much of an uppercut for high average.

    4. OF Steve Susdorf: He didn’t start but came in as a PH in the 9th. He smoked the first pitch into LF for a single.

    5. SS Troy Hanzawa: He had several very impressive plays in the field and hit a nice HR going 1 for 4. I was surprised that a guy his size could hit the ball as far with his swing.

    I was in the 1st row on top of the home dugout for the game and had a great view of most of it.

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  8. NEPhils –

    Thanks for the report on the Crosscutters. I remember reading that Overbeck doesn’t really project as a 3B. I wonder which position he’ll be better suited at, since his offense seems good (granted, he’s old for his league, but he is adjusting to a wooden bat)

    That’s interesting to hear that Hamilton is uppercutting the ball. I figured he would have a nice, line drive stroke. Still, it’s good to hear that he looked good defensively. Plus, he’s drawing a ton of walks, so if he gets his swing figured out, he could work his way up to the majors right around the time the position opens up for the parent club.

    As for D’Arnaud, I think he’s a prospect that we’re all going to be getting really excited about in a year or two. Out of Curiosity, doesn anyone know how his name is pronounced?

    Did you have any thoughts on the Crosscutter pitchers?

    – Jeff

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  11. Dar-no was how the game announcer was pronouncing it.

    On the pitching…Vermont doesn’t have a radar gun but the starter (Robert Roth) was very solid til the 6th where he looked smoked. He had good control in the game but gave up a bunch of flyballs…(From the boxscore 3 GB/13 FB). Most were harmless but 2 would have easily been out of most parks. His RF Morales made a spectacular catch into the wall at one point. He appeared to injury his shoulder on the play but he stayed in the game going 0-4. The trainers checked him out but he seemed okay afterward.

    On Roth, he didn’t appear to be throwing very hard for a RHP but its tough to gauge without a radar gun.

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  12. you may think that i am crazy, but i am more impressed with knapp’s line than roth’s line
    – knapp:
    IP – 4
    H – 5
    ER – 3
    BB – 2
    SO – 7
    – Roth:
    IP – 6
    H – 4
    ER – 1
    BB – 1
    SO – 2

    top pitchers get high strike outs in the minors. knapp has a big time arm. he needs to learn some more control and improve his secondary pitches, but he has something that you can’t teach.

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  13. also nice to see hewitt go 2-4 last night with a double.

    and happ was amazing last night. very impressive.

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  14. It is pronounced “Dar-No”..

    He’s going to be a legitimate prospect for years to come.

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  15. one guy that could rocket up this list is taylor. that guy shows a legit 3+ tools. i think that he will figure out clearwater very soon. he has a hose in the outfield and hits for power big time. he is also kinda quick for a big guy (although he won’t have the speed tool). i like that guy a lot.

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  16. I wasn’t that impressed with Roth in person…he generated a ton of balls in play and didn’t miss many bats. His pickoff move (one thing I DO remember) was very awkward to 1st…not quick at all. He did shutdown the opposing offense through 5.1 innings though. He appeared to hit the wall midway through the 6th though. His 6-0 record and miniscule ERA are impressive though.

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  17. Carassco out after 4 innings tonight, Anyone know what’s going on with that, just working him back slow or time to worry?

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  19. Carlos threw 72 pitches. His curve ball was described as “nasty” by Steve Degler. He struck out twice catcher Matt Wieters who was hitting .357. The home run he gave up was on a 94 mph fastball.

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  20. Taylor hit a homerun earlier and went 2-3. He just had another single in game 2 of the double header.

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  22. Okay MLB trade rumors said a deal that fell apart was Vic/Happ/Carrasco/Marson for Fuentes/Holliday!!!

    That would be a win now move. I don’t like Fuentes and while Holliday is a beast that would devistate our farm.

    But wow what a blockbuster that would have been.

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  24. crazy if the Rocks wouldn’t do that. Crazy. I do my best to not oversell the phillies prospects, but that would have been a win/ win I think. wadda they think they’re gonna get for those two?

    On another note, Sampson pitched 7 more low A innings tonight and managed to strike out one batter. 21 outs, 1 by k. Something does not add up there. For those of you who ever played baseball you know. If someone has as good of stuff as they say he does, you strike people out by accident. Hitters strike themselves out if nothing else. He does not do that. yeah he only gave up one run. fine. but he’s hittable, and hittable only gets worse as it goes up the ladder. even kendrick had a decent k rate in the low minors.

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  26. Interesting you have Golson so low. I agree with you. I think the guy is overrated. But, apparently the Phillies and some other teams have a higher opinion.

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  27. Daily new live commented yesterday that the Phillie’s lack of elite prospect could be that arbuckle is no longer in charge. They mention the players like utley,howard,rollins,hamel. Maybe the new regime is lacking in judgement of the talent it’s drafting.

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  28. I saw DNL yesterday and it was Mike Sielski who touched on the subject. He could have chatted more and explained deeper what he was trying to say, but the rest of the panel would have been baffled. As much as they think they know, write, and comment on the Phillies, the Philly writers know little, if nothing , on how drafting and the minors work and go hand in hand. Sielski knows, but rarely writes on it. He did go on to say what Rocky mentioned above.
    In my opinion, the difference between Arbuckle and Wolever is Arbuckle hit on some nice first-round picks through the years, though they were much higher draft positions than where Wolever is drafting at. Arbuckle, in his whole tenure as scouting director, didn’t hit on enough players AFTER the first round, especially pitching. He didn’t hit on complementary players to surround the premium players. That caused a vacuum at the major league level and forced the Phils to sign free agents with corresponding draft pick losses. It didn’t help matters that Ed Wade also goofed up trades with Schilling and Rolen to replenish what he lost. It was like Arbuckle and Wade were on two different planets when consulting each other. That, or Wade was just plain stubborn or stupid.
    Wolever, on the other hand, seems to have missed often on his first-round picks, except for hamels falling into his lap, and drafts much better after the first round. The solution: let Arbuckle pick the first-rounder; Wolever the rest.
    One thing I will mention is it also seems since Gillick arrived, different types of players are being drafted. They walk more, strike out less, and hit for higher average. Pre-Gillick, it seemed all the hitters had 1/2 BB/K ratios with a 8-10% walk rate. But that has changed. I’ve even seem some pitchers with obscene IP/K rates in Williamsport. I can’t remember seeing that type of stuff before. If Gillick has made any difference, you’ll see in the next couple of years if they go back to the same tired old ways and ignore what the phans see and like these days transpiring in the lower minors.

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  29. I thought it was only me but you are right about only hitting on first round choices. Where are the rest of the drafts under arbuckle. Its hard for me to believe that out of fifty picks you can’t find at least good bench players or relief pitchers. What happens when Gillick leaves. If its amaro that scares me.

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  30. KBN (great name, btw)– the problem with Wade was that he always insisted on “major league-ready” players. So you got, for instance, Bud Smith rather than someone further down in the Cardinals chain (Dan Haren, say) who might have made that Rolen deal pay off down the line.

    Wade never added “inventory” back into the minors, and he squandered draft picks with his free agent signings. Three years after he was canned, we’re still digging out from his misguided approach.

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  31. The latest ESPN rumors have the phils sending Happ, Marson, Carrasco, along with victorino to the Rockies for Fuentes and Matt Holliday…. pretty steep price!

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  32. James–
    What are your thoughts on Quintin Berry? His average has been going up and he has great speed…A little old for A ball.

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  33. I don’t think it is fair to say Arby didn’t hit after first round in draft. First, Eddie cost him a lot of picks. Second, he got Rollins in 2nd and Howard in 5th. Madson a 4th or 5th. Kendrick I think was a 10th. That seems like good productivity. Two MVPs, a starting pitcher, and a setup guy. Did any other team in baseball get two MVPs after the first round during that period. Also, Rolen was a second round pick.

    I think it is way too soon to say Wolever missed on his first rounders. Savery has really come around in his latest starts. Drabek may well come back strong next season. Golson is looking a lot better this year. Costanzo was not a first rounder and was the key to getting Lidge — that was another year we lost our first rounder. Cardenas was an excellent supplemental first rounder and undoubtedly the key to getting Blanton — not that I am thrilled with that trade. Wolever doesn’t have any first rounders in the majors, but it is too early to expect that, especially since he took mainly HS talent.

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  34. Steep price for an MVP and quality closer? The only thing I would change is Victorino. We need his speed in the lineup. We have enough sluggers in our lineup.

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  35. Wolever took over right after Arbuckle made the Gavin Floyd selection. Anything after that was on Wolever, including Howard. And Kendrick. One can talk all they want about how good or not the draft delections were on either Arbuckle or Wolever’s watch. The fact is a playoff game has yet to be won. I’ll have to agree with you a bit on the time frame on Wolever’s #1’s because it’s still early. It would be fantastic if Drabek and Savery would be firing away next year.

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  36. why BLANDON???
    He may stink and get as many starts as MEYER.
    The PHILLIES need somekind of stat man “of the top of
    their head” isnt working. JARMILLO instead of CARDENAS
    is the highest i would of went
    WHY DOES EVERYONE WANT OUR PROSPECTS BUT US

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  37. Are you 10 years old?

    “July 19, 2008 at 12:28 pm

    why BLANDON???
    He may stink and get as many starts as MEYER.
    The PHILLIES need somekind of stat man “of the top of
    their head” isnt working. JARMILLO instead of CARDENAS
    is the highest i would of went
    WHY DOES EVERYONE WANT OUR PROSPECTS BUT US”

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  39. Always laugh when you get those posts wondering why the Phillies didn’t trade the C-level prospects the poster doesn’t like for an ace starter?

    Why Blanton? Because he was the best available starter aside from Bedard, who is injured, and Burnett who has a dangerous contract situation and a no-trade clause.

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  41. Travis Mattair: 3-5 today with a homer and a double. He’s hitting .328 in July with an .872 OPS.

    – Jeff

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  42. after struggling early with control Savery pitched another solid game and got some solid DP’s to stay out of trouble.

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  43. Pat the Bat’s Top Ten:
    1.Marson
    2.Carassco
    3.Donald
    4.Savery
    5.Brown
    6.D’Arnaud
    7.Drabek
    8.Happ
    9.Taylor
    10.Collier

    So by my count that’s two potential All-Star caliber catchers, a starting shortstop, a potential RHP ace (Drabek), a potential above average #3 RHP, a potential #2 LHP, a potential five tool right fielder, a massive power hitting LF with a cannon, and a solid #4 LHP. Not bad, maybe looking at a top 20 system in the 19,20 range.

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  44. susdorff’s got some serious pop. 7 extra bh in 10 hits. i think that he will be a top 10 phillies prospect by the end of next year. seriously, i think that he will shoot through the system. i don’t know where he tops out at, but i think that he will be an mlb player sooner rather than later.

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  45. PP Fan,
    I’m a little confused here, you were just on another thread saying it is to early to pass judgement on Hewitt after 13 AB’s, but yet now your saying Susdorff is going to be fly throw the system and be a big leaguer based off of 24 Ab’s in a League he is too old for. Come on I am thrill also with his start, but lets not anoint yet, Like you said about Hewitt its too early to judge

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  46. Cromp – fair point, it is very early on susdorff, but i think that hewitt and susdorff are very different prospects. susdorff is a very polished college player. he also was a senior (i think). these are the type of guys who move quickly. further, although susdorff has only 24 ABs, he is clearly showing some real pop and has adjusted to the wooden bat quickly. i also think that there is something special about susdorff. he seems to have that “it”. i might be looking for it, but he seems to rise to the occasion both in college and in his limited pro career. i don’t know why, i just have a gut feeling about him…but it might be the mcdonald’s breakfast sandwich that is causing that feeling in my gut too…let’s see how it plays out.

    hewitt was a high school player from the north east. he is tools vs. susdorff’s polish. he is 3 years of development (both mentally and physically) behind a college player. he is also DH’ing during a game and learning a new position in between games. a lot to digest.

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  47. Evaluating college seniors at short season ball is really tough. They are playing against younger competition, and often times can get off to quick starts only to fade down the stretch. Mach is the quick reminder of that phenomenon.

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  48. another fair point. i might be reaching with susdorff. time will tell…i just hope he doesn’t retire at the end of this season 🙂

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  49. even though this looks dead, what do you think of the proposed deal:
    Carasco, Victorino, Happ, Marson for holliday and fuentes.

    it is a damn lot to give up. really destroys the entire farm system. sets the system 2-3 years back. at the same time, the main club’s line-up would be insane and holliday is signed for another year. basically the startegy would be, our starters suck, but we will out hit you and out bullpen you to death. we would shorten the games by 2-3 innings and bet that a line-up of rollins-holliday-utley-howard-burrell-werth would score enough to win. it might work and you gotta applaud the cahonees (sp?) it would take to pull it off.

    on the flip side, it would also mean 4 extra first round picks the following year when fuentes and burrell walk.

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  50. I would give Pat Gillick a man-card for it.. but I’m not sure I would want to drain the farm that hard. Especially after the Blanton trade.

    Besides… where would Holliday play? Does he even have the arm for right? Because we know we can’t move old-man Burrell out of left.

    This team is still honed to win for two more years anyway.

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  51. PP fan,

    i’ve had that same thought about Susdorf and watched him throughout the CWS where he had big hit after big hit. He seemed like the one player that the other teams always tried to avoid on a team of big hitters. I for one question how he fell to what the 19th round? I also would like to see him duplicate or come close to these numbers at Lakewood or Clearwater before i anoint him.

    As far as the FUentes/HOlliday trade I’m 100% against it. Fuentes is a failed closer who the Rockies seem to think is as good as Rivera/Lidge or K-Rod. Also please remember that Holliday is a BORAS client. Needst i remind us all of one JD Drew?? Oh and 4 draft picks are nice, but no guarantee. They all could be Reggie Taylors!

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  54. Let’s say the phillies can make this deal. After the deal they turn around and bring in russo.broxton.weber, and ginther.They commit the money to make system better after the deal .would do it

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  55. I don’t mean to make this fly too far off track, but there’s no way you can do that deal if you’re the Phils. The four potential draft picks would be nice, but you’re giving up 21 cost-controlled years (3 from Victorino and 6 each from the prospects) for 0.5 years of Fuentes and 1.5 years of Holliday. Plus, it absolutely guts the farm system and makes the big league club horrible just two years down the line (after Holliday walks).

    I give Gillick credit for being creative, but that deal would have been terrible for the team’s long-term future.

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