Phillies acquire Joe Blanton for 3 prospects

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No names released yet, as far as I’ve seen. I’ll update this spot when the names are known. Hold your breath.

Update—> Cardenas, Spencer and Outman.

Wow.

For A’s fans who find the blog, you can find info on these guys here.

Cardenas
Outman
Spencer

277 thoughts on “Phillies acquire Joe Blanton for 3 prospects”

  2. I read Cardenas, and he is NOT playing for Clearwater tonight in 1st game of Dh which just started….if it is Cardenas, the other 2 prospects better be lower level.

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  3. Looks like Adrian IS in the deal. Dangit! For a 5-12 pitcher with an ERA over 5?

    Was really looking forward to seeing Cardenas’ bat in the lineup someday…even if it WAS corner outfield.

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  4. Any guesses?

    The really scary thing is that we know Beane wouldn’t have anything to do with Golson. So someone decent has to be the centerpiece… and I’m thinking Jason Donald.

    Yup, definitely holding my breath right now.

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  5. Either Oakland didn’t want Donald or Phils offered AC rather than Donald….I hope the Phils held back JD rather than Oakland wanting AC instead….and it better not be anything near what the Cubs gave up for Harden, which wasn’t much.

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  6. Gillick should be shot. You cannot give up a 20 year old kid who just rakes for a fat average pitches.

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  8. Its gotta be Cardenas(he isn’t playing) and right now Golson, Slayden, Harmon, Donald, and Marson all in Reading line-up……E Garcia has already given up 5 ER including a 3-R HR through 2 IP.

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  13. Spencer and Outman are fine, but Cardenas??? I’m not happy about that one. But, seriously, notwithstanding what the “experts” tell me, I’d rather it be Cardenas than Donald or Happ. But, yes, I wish it had been Golson rather than Cardenas.

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  17. You should give up ANYONE but Cardenas. The kid can flat out hit. It doesn’t matter that we have Utley , Cardenas could have been moved to LF or 3B.

    And you give up Outman ?? Please kill yourself Gillick.

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  19. Duplicate post from Beerleaguer, sorry:

    Cardenas and Outman are way too much. I’m not completely sold on Outman, but coupled with Cardenas is frustrating.

    The only reason they want Blanton is b/c he’s controlled and cheap(ish), which is the same as our Mgmt.

    Earlier I said I’d be happy to trade J. Donald in the right deal, but he’s a guy that’ could turn out to be a pretty good MLB player. On the flip side, I FEAR trading Cardenas b/c the guy flat out hits and is only 20.

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  20. You can tell Gillick’s on his way out the door. Cardenas and Outman for Blanton??????

    Wow now we have two Adam Eaton’s…..and lost our best hitting prospect.

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  22. People, people, people… You have to give something to get something. Repeat it again: You have to give something to get something.

    Cardenas was blocked at the major league level and the other two guys are not prime prospects. Very good deal for a durable, innings-eater who has averaged 32.5 starts and 14 wins over the past three full seasons.

    Blanton is 27 years old, will be a No. 3/4 starter and is under control for the next two full seasons.

    Regardless of what he is doing so far in this fluke season, Blanton is a upper-tier ML starter that the Phillies picked up while giving up very little.

    Terrific deal.

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  23. Cardenas being blocked right now has nothing to do with his trade value. He’s 20 and in A ball. You have plenty of time to figure out where he plays.

    If you want your moment of zen, head to baseball-reference and check out Big Joe’s H/R splits over the last 3 or 4 seasons. He’s terrible outside of that spacious cavern the A’s call home. And he’s going from the best ranked defense in baseball to the 12th ranked defense. I’m sure that will improve his numbers. He’ll gain a touch from the AL to NL switch, but really, does that overshadow the 5+ ERA on the road over the last 4 seasons?

    I don’t like this. At all.

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  25. I don’t mind this deal… You knew they were making a move, and to get an upgrade for the staff for a player who was blocked for the next 2+ years anyway, this is acceptable. It could have been Carrasco, maybe Golson and more for Burnett, which would have been terrible. If Hewitt can make strides in the next 2 years, it makes it a moot point…

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  28. So how well does Blanton need to pitch for this to be a successful trade? I’m not jumping out of my seat in excitement for this trade but let’s give him a little more credit than comparing him to Eaton. I definitely think that all A’s pitchers have inflated value just because of the miles of foul territory and secretly hoped that Gillick wouldn’t trade with Bean but it’s happened, so i’m just curious what kind of year/years he would have to put up to make everyone satisfied?

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  29. “Cardenas being blocked right now has nothing to do with his trade value. He’s 20 and in A ball. You have plenty of time to figure out where he plays.”

    From the Phils’ standpoint, it absolutely does. Scouts feel he cannot play anywhere but second base and we have second base covered for the next six years and probably longer.

    “If you want your moment of zen, head to baseball-reference and check out Big Joe’s H/R splits over the last 3 or 4 seasons. He’s terrible outside of that spacious cavern the A’s call home.

    And he’s also moving to the NL, where he’ll be facing pitchers instead of the Paul Konerkos and the Vlade Guererros.

    “And he’s going from the best ranked defense in baseball to the 12th ranked defense. I’m sure that will improve his numbers. He’ll gain a touch from the AL to NL switch, but really, does that overshadow the 5+ ERA on the road over the last 4 seasons?”

    The Phillies do not have a bad defense. Quite the opposite.

    And he doesn’t have a 5+ ERA on the road. No need to exaggerate or make stuff up to make your point. Pitchers moving from the AL to the NL gain more than “a touch.” Look at Lohse. At Chris Young. Edison Volquez. At Jaime Moyer. Heck, Dan Haren’s ERA this year is a full run lower than his career ERA, all in the AL.

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  31. Why o why does your management rate Golson over Cardenas. A’s would of taken Golson, but the Phillies offered Cardenas instead.

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  32. I like the deal. Sure it sucks to give up Cardenas but ultimately I’m a big fan of Blanton. He helps us this year
    and for the next several years. Outman and Spencer are
    not big losses.

    Ultimately this was a pretty cheap way to get a solid ML pitcher. I think we are better for it.

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  34. 3-year Average OAK 208.7 33 14 11 0 121 55 220 4.10 1.32

    I don’t like losing Cardenas but I think Blanton will keep the Phillies in games. He will help.

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  35. The Phils are going to gain this year, from a small gain to a potential big gain, and have a projectable 14-game winner with a 4.00 ERA for the next two seasons… and they didn’t have to part with Carrasco, Marson or even Donald.

    It’s a good day.

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  36. I’ve made up nothing.

    Blanton’s road ERA’s, by season

    2008: 5.73
    2007: 5.11
    2006: 5.12
    2005: 3.73

    Team Defensive Efficiency Rating

    A’s: .724 (1st in MLB)
    P’s: .705 (t11th in MLB)

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  37. I had a dream (nightmare, really) the other night that Gillick traded Carrasco and Cardenas to Seattle for Bedard. As has been mentioned elsewhere, I figured that since Gillick’s going back there after this season, he’d try to boost Seattle’s system while he could. This doesn’t help Seattle, but is just about as bad for the Phillies. While I don’t think Cardenas can play 3rd, he could definitely step in at 2nd with Utley at 1st since Ruben will be trading Howard for 50 cents on the dollar sometime in the next couple years to avoid signing him or paying his arbitration. AND on top of that, Outman gets included! Maybe we can give Blanton a No Trade Clause while we’re at it to keep him happy. Just a terrible, terrible deal.

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  38. I won’t say anything else on this after this post, but the people who seem to think Blanton makes us better really do need to investigate his numbers a bit. He has one thing going for him; he doesn’t walk a lot of batters. He doesn’t throw groundballs, he’s got modest strikeout numbers, and his numbers away from home, a very pitcher friendly home park, are really bad. He’s really not all that much of an upgrade over Adam Eaton. I appreciate positive thinking and enthusiasm, but I don’t really see how this trade makes us that much better. Even if you concede that Cardenas had to be moved now (he didn’t), why give up Outman too? Just doesn’t make sense to me. At all. But as I said, its just my opinion, you’re welcome to disagree, and I’ll be rooting for Blanton every time he takes the hill.

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  39. We can argue all over the place good deal vs bad deal. as of now, I find it hard to believe we gave up our highest most ready to play LH pitcher and our best position player prospect for a Corey Lidle (RIP) pitcher.

    I do believe that we do have to trade prospects (when we actually have them) to make our big league club better.

    without question this is a trade for now. I mean damn, didnt we hear rumors for Blanton last year too??

    I also think that this might have something to do w a rating of both Donald and Cardenas, and maybe another prospect slightly below AC.

    And I do think that “blocking” on the big club has to be taken into consideration.

    As is very commonly said by GM’s etc– “prospects will get ya fired.” And I very much agree with that. You do have to trade some prospects to win now. But is Cardenas that lowly rated a prospect by other teams that all we can get for him is a 3rd-4th starter?? (where would he rate on an Atlanta or Angels prospect list)

    but we better have something coming with Blanton for me to be anywhere near content on this trade.

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  41. Good point on Cardenas being blocked for 2+ years. We should have traded Ryan Howard for a below average starter when he was blocked by Jim Thome. We never would’ve regretted that.

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  42. highest most ready to play LH pitcher= JA Happ, but that guy should probably be traded too, since he’s been marginalized for the past season or so.

    It’s all about Cardenas to me. Outman’s more of a mystery in my book. could turn out to be great, or “just” a nice lefty reliever. I think he’s a product of looking good in a bad farm system. I especially hope that’s true not that he’s gone. Someone somewhere reported that the A’s wanted Golson, but we insisted on Cardenas?

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  45. “I won’t say anything else on this after this post, but the people who seem to think Blanton makes us better really do need to investigate his numbers a bit.”

    No need to run off. The know-it-all attitude is so refreshing. Dude, I know baseball and know the numbers.

    And his career road ERA is 4.78 — not 5+.

    “He has one thing going for him; he doesn’t walk a lot of batters. He doesn’t throw groundballs, he’s got modest strikeout numbers, and his numbers away from home, a very pitcher friendly home park, are really bad.”

    Actually, 14 wins, a ton of innings, 33 starts and — even his worst projectable ERA is in the 4.40 range in the NL.

    Those are all good numbers. If Kyle Kendrick has shown anything, it’s that a pitcher who keeps the Phillies in the game can win a lot of ballgames. Kendrick’s 4.20 ERA has been worth a 27-12 record for the Phils in his 39 starts.

    “He’s really not all that much of an upgrade over Adam Eaton.”

    If you really believe this, I would advise you to investigate Eaton’s AL numbers a bit. A little study is in order here. They are completely different pitchers and have had very different levels of success — that is, Eaton has had none and Blanton is a proven 14-15 game winner.

    “I appreciate positive thinking and enthusiasm, but I don’t really see how this trade makes us that much better.”

    Have you seen Adam Eaton pitch? Ever?

    “Even if you concede that Cardenas had to be moved now (he didn’t), why give up Outman too? Just doesn’t make sense to me.”

    Because teams just don’t hand over 15-game winners under control for two seasons for nothing. It would be nice if they did, but it doesn’t work that way.

    I love fans. Every fan always wants to trade their teams three worst players for a great player — and they legitimately think it’s a fair deal.

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  47. Yea, Jake, that doesn’t make any sense. His career road ERA is only 4.78 because he had a good year 4 years ago. Wins has absolutely nothing to do with performance. His two worst starts are against NL teams. Blanton has less QS than Eaton, so he really hasn’t shown an ability to keep his team in the game.

    While I’m not calling this trade a bust yet, it certainly doesn’t look great right now.

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  49. Why did we have to do this now? Why couldn’t we have waited until the trading deadline to give Happ a couple more shots to see if he could be just as good or better than Blanton?

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  51. Fair enough Jake. You’re not going to be swayed, so we’ll leave it at that. I’m not “running off”, but I think people will have their minds made up either way, so there’s no point in harping on it. I posted his road ERA’s over the last 4 seasons. Since 2005, his ERA on the road is well over 5.

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  52. Jake,

    Why are you so “all in” on saying this is a good deal? He may turn out ok, but the evidence is alarming.

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  54. Very disappointing. I have spent the last 3 years getting more and more excited about our farm system, and now all that excitement can be flushed down the toilet.

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  56. As with all trades we need to see out this thing works out first before we blast too much. Cardenas is a very good prospect BUT he is a guy that would have never played for the Phillies. His doesn’t project anywhere else but second base. My guess is with the drafting of Hewitt and Collier Spencer had moved pretty far down the prospect list in the outfield for the Phillies. I don’t like giving up Outman but we do have other lefthanders who are now ahead of him in the system in Happ and Bastardo.

    As far as Blanton goes he is still young at 27, controllable for several more years and generally a decent pitcher. I don’t think comparing him to Eaton is a good. His numbers are pretty bad this year but if you look at his game by game he had two games where he lasted just 3 and 4 innings and gave up 15 runs in those games. I think what we have here is a guy who is going to pitch into the 7 inning most times out, going to keep you in games. He is not a number 2 probably more of a 3/4 type pitcher. Which is OK. He is an upgrade over Eaton who is an abortion on the mound.

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  57. Realistically, they were certainly going to make a move for a starter. You could narrow down the options to about 5-10 pitchers (burnett, blanton, bedard, washburn, byrd, etc). In order to get any one of them, you knew someone would have to go (marson, carrasco, cardenas, golson, donald) Looking at that, is this really that terrible? It could have very well been worse, a lot worse. I love Cardenas, but they are in a position to gamble a little with offensive minded, infield prospects. I don’t think a lefty reliever prospect (Outman) was going to hold up any deal for a major league starter.

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  59. Add one more voice that thinks this is a terrible trade. Not that I am entirely against Blanton. He does eat innings and he could be league average in the national league. It is just the price. I was figuring it would take a top 10 prospect, just not 2 of our top 5. Outman and Spencer alone might have been a fair price.

    I think this shows how short-sighted the Phillies can be with regards to their minor leaguers. I think they really believe that having Utley diminished Cardenas’ value. They feel they are giving little up in the deal because of that. They are probably down on Outman because he has only been so-so as a reliever. Beane again is smart and is getting undervalued prospects here.

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  61. I have a hunch they view Donald and Cardenas as very similar players and just decided to keep the closest to major league ready

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  62. I don’t think Outman was a top 5 prospect in our system by any stretch anymore. James had him 10th, and I don’t think there was anybody ahead of him who was worse than him, yet I think there were a few guys behind him who could be argued to be a better prospect.

    Also, count me as a voice that will not judge this trade until at least the end of this year.

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  63. My opinion for what little it may be worth is that the Phils could have and would have gotten the same thing if not more out of Happ.

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  65. What’s that “Phillies Way” again when making trades written by Pope Owens? Keep the cream that’s risen to the top of your system. Trade the milk to fill your needs, especially in acquiring pitching. Use the skim milk for sweeteners.
    I’d have to say Cardenas is still milk, not yet turned into cream. Outman is milk, and Spencer is skim milk.

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  66. Gregg the best thing is WE STILL HAVE HAPP and I don’t know if we could have got the same thing out of Happ. He had pitched three times in the majors, got shelled in two and pitched well in the third. I like Happ and I am happy we didn’t deal him in this deal. But to say we could have got the same thing out of him is kind of short sighted

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  67. Has Happ ever pitched in relief…As we have seen with Outman, its not all that simple of a transition, especially in the middle of a pennant race. As far as Eaton goes, he makes Don Carmen (obligatory Don Carmen reference) look like Cy Young.

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  68. Happ was hurt last year and got shelled. In two starts this year he gave up 4 runs in over 10 innings… that’s shelled?

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  69. I think with the 2 NL central teams making moves, and the Mets back to just about even, you know they were certainly going to make a move. I think Happ is a major league pitcher, but to convince the Philly fans and media, that their answer to a mid season move is JA Happ, that would have went over like a fart in church. To get pitching help, one of their top 5 prospects was on the move. The arguement should be, why Cardenas instead of Donald, or Golson (if he even is a top 5 prospect!) or Carrasco or Marson. When you look at that way, this is not a terrible trade in those terms. If Blanton is failure, then it is. But I guess we’ll find that out in the next 2 months…

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  70. Please with the Beane for god votes…Many WITHIN baseball truly believe hes single minded in his ways and never waiver from it…He wants clones/robots..I understand hes done well with a limited payroll and his system has produced decent players(zito and mulder were shortlived as it turned out)…But as usual hes dealing for the “future” and not the present since they will not make the playoffs and we have a great chance…so no need to jump off buildings yet

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  71. once again this organization screws the fans….blanton is garbage…enjoy watching cardenas flourish in oakland just like another prospect that we got rid of who is getting the call now (gio gonzalez)…i hate this organization….they make me sick! i am done with them!

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  72. In case anyone was curious…Happ has faced 8 batters thus far this evening and struck out 6. Just sayin.

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  73. Stealing some points from a comment over at The Good Phight (apologies in advance):

    First off, we gave up too much. Yes, Blanton is controllable through 2010, but does anyone else get the sense that the Phils could have had Burnett (who, granted, was a rental) for a lesser haul of prospects? And I’d certainly have preferred a package built around Carrasco/Golson for Bedard to this deal — you’d be giving up more, yes, but you’d be getting a heckuva lot more back.

    Secondly, prospects aside… why do we need Blanton anyway? This club needed a top of the rotation starter to pair with Hamels, so that when the Phils went against Zambrano/Harden, Webb/Haren, or Sabathia/Sheets in the postseason, they wouldn’t be overmatched. J.A. Happ’s an innings eater and he’s wasting away in Triple-A… why not promote him instead of trading the farm for Blanton? Jake, your point about innings eaters keeping the Phils in games is all well and good, but that just doesn’t work in the playoffs. Dominant pitching wins in October, and playoff-caliber lineups feast on guys like Blanton.

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  74. Everybody needs to calm the f down. The sky is not falling. We’re not all going to die. Baseball trades are nearly impossible to judge until long after they are made. So don’t try.

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  75. Beane is single-minded in acquiring value. Cardenas is undervalued because the Phillies feel they have Utley. Outman is undervalued because the relief conversion went slower than expected. These are minor blips. We tend to over and undervalue prospects on short term circumstances. Beane looks at the long term.

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  76. Speculation on various websites has Outman becoming a starter again in Oakland and getting called up in September.

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  77. Though I’m torn over whether Blanton is the kind of pitcher who will help win playoff games, I have little doubt that he will help get us there. One stat he has over Eaton is the 230 quality innings he threw last year in the american league. He’s off this year, no doubt, but pitchers’ performance is generally more predictable than hitters, and short of an injury (knock on wood) I think we can count on him racking up a lot of league average or slightly better innings over the next year and a half.

    Spencer is minor league filler, and really a bad draft pick from the start. Outman’s star has faded significantly as he still doesn’t have consistent enough command to be a starter or late inning reliever, and he’s getting too old to necessarily think it’ll come (you could insert Happ here as well). Cardenas, what can you say, he’s going to be a solid little ballplayer. He’s NOT going to be a superstar, as some have suggested but he looks like he’ll have some value.

    Anyways, it’s easy and natural to overvalue your own prospects – what did Hannibal Lector say… you covet what you see everyday… anyways, chances are none of those guys will make us regret this move. The player with the power to do that is blanton.

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  78. Awful Awful Awful.

    On the good side this means the end of Eaton. Every team needs a 4th Starter – Innings Eater.

    I would not have included Cardenas ever. If this is it for the trades, it is very upsetting. If it is part of a larger plan, then
    maybe just maybe it can be ok.

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  79. When you take a deep breath, the trade still isn’t good. I have no issue trading prospects, but when you do it, you better be trading it for quality. If PETCO Park was our home field, or Safeco, Blanton would be a good fit. But he puts lots of balls in play, and because of that, he relies on his defense, and the expansive foul ground at his home park. Those are now gone. The DH is now gone too, so that helps a bit.

    No one wants Joe to succeed more than me, or more than any of us. We’re all Phillies fans. But I think its kind of out of line for people to come here and say how clueless we are, and how great this is. Clearly the regular posters here care about our prospects, and even if this trade works out well, we’re still allowed to be kind of sad seeing one of our very best prospects get traded.

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  80. I’m not happy with this trade. I hope carrasco is not dealt for the bat the Phils need yet.

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  81. I don’t care about Spencer. Outman bothered me a little bit, but Cardenas was just too much. In two years, Howard could be gone, Utley would move to first, and Cardenas could have take onver 2B. I hope he doesn’t turn out to another Ryne Sandberg.

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  82. I don’t mind the trade. Everyone knows you have to overspend to get what you want before the trade deadling, especially when everybody knows you are desperate…so you know you had to give up someone good. Unfortunately, that means we lose Cardenas who I think is going to be a good player. I have little faith in Outman and Spencer is a throw in. I know we would rather see Golston go, but I don’t think that even the Phils are convinced that he’s going to be their outfielder of the future.
    Don’t forget, we still kept our 2 best prospects in Carrasco and Marson who could fetch us even more if we were willing to part with them. Otherwise, they can come to Philly without any player standing in their way.

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  83. I am a big fan of using your prospects for chips. I’d rather an established major leaguer anytime. I want a “HE IS” rather than a “COULD BE.”

    But Blanton’s peripherals are mediocre to average at best. He’s not Eaton. If you look at his stats he looks more like Kendrick (especially GB/FO but with a little more strikeout ability.

    Would you trade Cardenas and Outman for Kendrick? Neither would I.

    I WANTED to trade Cardenas. He had to be used as trade bait. But not to obtain an ORDINARY inning eater. Blanton IS an upgrade over Eaton, but that was easy to accomplish.

    This season totally depends on Myers becoming that NUMBER two we needed.

    Next season? I’m ticked. This is a completely uninspired trade. Cardenas SHOULD have been packaged for more. An ordinary pitcher who will be with us for 2 1/2 seasons was not what I expected for a good hitting secondbaseman who might play with the A’s for 5 years or more.

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  84. Happ update from this evening: Came in for Mazone in the 3rd inning….Has pitched 6 innings, zero hits, zero runs, one walk, 10 strikeouts, including the side in the 8th inning.

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  85. So what do we have:
    1. Hamels
    2. Myers
    3. Moyer
    4. Kendrick
    5. Blanton/Haap
    I don’t know….this rotation makes me pretty nervous for the second half. Any other suggestions what we might see for a rotation set-up?

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  86. Interesting, Gregg. Which begs the question: why trade two of your Top 10 prospects for an innings eater when you have a potential innings eater in Triple-A just waiting to be called up (again)?

    I do hope Blanton does well, but a flyball pitcher who sports a career 5.1 K/9 in the majors? I have my doubts.

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  87. i am not angry at all. am looking at this objectively and i think that phuturephillies is correct.

    the only issue is what does blanton do for us and it is hard to see how he significantly upgrades our staff. eaton is horrible, but blanton has not been much better and i don’t see how anyone can make a contrary case without pie in the sky projection.

    it just goes to show you how hard it is to acquire pitching. but this strikes me as a panic move.

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  88. “Can’t wait to see what the future holds for one Adam Eaton”

    My guess, designated for assignment and the Phils will eat that contract.

    He’s not salvageable.

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  90. Big day no matter how you slice it.

    The guys on the team sweating it out every day have to be grateful for the help. When you have a shot as the Phillies do, you have to go for it — this deal represents a go-for-it-now mentality. Some love it, some hate it, but that’s what it is. In a few years it might look more foolish than bold, but for now, it will help more than it hurts.

    How good is Blanton? Calling him a #3 is generous but he is a solid inning-eating #4 who will help ease the burden on the bullpen in a way Happ would not. Still, the A’s know pitching and many hurlers who leave Oakland are never as good as they were with them. Scary. But is he better than Adam Eaton? You bet.

    How good is Cardenas? I love his bat. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a superstar, but it isn’t out of the question. He’s not a huge long ball threat, but then again his power will probably develop with time. He’s a natural hitter with a smooth, controlled stroke and could become a .300 hitter with Oakland.

    How good is Outman? Who knows. He’s on again, off again, but a great pitching coach might work wonders for him. Seems like a guy who could turn the corner and never look back. He wasn’t going to help the Phillies this season and they desperately wanted him to. That disappointment clearly shows. If he reaches the bigs and pitches above league average, this will be a deal the Phillies regret — unless they somehow win it all this year.

    How good is Spencer? I give him less than even odds on making the majors at all.

    Building a rotation should be done from the top down, not the bottom up. When you don’t obsess about acquiring a true Big Three in your rotation with every breath you take, you wind up making deals like these. It may improve you in the short term but long term it tends to hurt. And you still don’t have the 3 horses you need to match up with the best of the best.

    Bottom line: The odds of a 2008 pennant just went up so I don’t feel this deal is a hopeless failure, but they certainly did give up a lot of talent for Blanton.

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  91. Blanton is not a flyball pitcher; he’s neutral. His FIP ERA of 4.11 would indicate that he hasn’t benefited from the A’s defense.

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  92. but i think a lot of us sit at home, and watch the games where the phils score 5-6 runs and still lose because myers/eaton just can’t keep the game under wraps. we don’t ask them for complete game shut outs but just to keep the game close and competitive and allow our offense to do what they do best. I believe Blanton represents the guy that mgmt and us expect to at least keep the game close. Will that be enough? Was it worth trading Cardenas for an “innings eater” a term which i absolutely cannot stand. a pitcher is either a winner or a loser, you don’t get points in the win column for pitching a lot of innings. I think he’s an improvement over myers/eaton at this point but don’t think he will be putting any rings on anyone’s finger

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  93. Seriously, if it means they DFA or bullpeen Eaton, then this is a winner.

    Also, cardenas was our best hitting prospect going into the season, but I would have to say that the phillies displayed a lot of discipline in keeping Marson and Carassco. Marson could be here next year and Carrasco could be dominant…

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  94. Why on God’s green earth are we trading two of our finest prospects (and another bat to boot!) for a borderline pitcher who also costs a lot when JA Happ is in AAA strining up zeros and Ks. Dumb, dumb, dumb. If you are going to use your prospects as playing chips get a Rich Harden or someone like that. Harden is a stud. For crying out load, AJ Burnett is a stud compared to Blanton because he, at least, has the ability to turn it on and become a dominant pitcher in the post season. This is such a phenomenally wasteful, stupid and ill-considered move that I am left stunned. Why do we keep doing these stupid things as a team. I cannot overstate how frustrated I am at this. What was the point? That upgrade at this cost? IT MAKES NO SENSE. IT’S STUIPD.

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  95. I AM SO MAD THAT I’VE LOST THE ABILITY TO SPELL, BUT I THINK MY INTENT WAS CLEAR.

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  97. “Building a rotation should be done from the top down, not the bottom up.”

    Well said, xfactor. I appreciate what Blanton brings to the table, but he’s only going to get more expensive in his arbitration years. Beane is letting him go at precisely the point when his price tag (probably $6 or $7 million next year) will begin to outweigh his value (a solid #4 starter). You should let your young guys handle the #4 and #5 spots — you can pay them less than $400 grand, after all, and save the money to acquire real quality for the top of your rotation.

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  99. I’ve never been so disgusted in my life. This trade is pure rubbish. We’ve all known that this was going to be Gillick’s last year, but its not fair to Phillies fan to have this idiot who doesn’t care about our future dealing our future away or making decisions about our future. I hate to see us make a bad trade, but I’m certainly not going to wish that Cardenas doesn’t succeed. I hope he becomes the next Utley, Sandberg, or Hornsby. I can’t believe that we are so stupid to move Outman to a relief pitcher and then deal him with such a low value. Spencer is a sleeper prospect that definitely has the chance to surprise. I think Beane got amazing value. Outman and Spencer alone would have been about right…Cardenas added to this is nuts. It just disgusts me that our front office is so backwards in its thinking that we actually devalue our own prospects in negotiating a trade. I’m in shock. I’m with James on this “Blocked Player” philosophy. Cardenas was in High A…probably 2 years away from a major league look, his value was not lower because he was supposedly blocked by Utley, that is stupid. Moving Happ to a relief pitcher just caps this disgusting event with another stupid move.

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  100. After taking a deep breath and looking at this trade closely, it’s a decent deal for the Phils. Blanton is an upgrade over Eaton, doesn’t walk many (which is a major bonus in our park) and won’t cost us much in salary. And even though people don’t want to admit it, salaries matter to the Phillies. We are not the Yankees or the Red Sox. Considering Eaton is making $8M+, getting Blanton for half that is a godsend. Cardenas is good, but he’s still an A ball prospect and years away. A lot could happen. At least we still have Carrasco, Marson, Donald, Golson and Happ.

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  101. All the Blanton trade does now is block Carrasco for the next two years. Unless Myers gets moved in the off season?

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  103. i think that many on this blog will disagree with me when i say i don’t think that we lost very much. my issue is that we didn’t get much back.

    i like cardenas, but he doesn’t hit for power, have speed nor play very good defense. i think that he will hit for average at a position that is tough to find hitters, but that makes him a 1 tool player. don’t get me wrong, i like him as a prospect and i do think that he will make a good major leaguer. i just don’t think that we gave away ryan sandberg or chase utley. further, i honestly don’t think that either outman nor spencer will do much of significance in the majors.

    more than anything, i am upset that we wasted some salary space on blanton. i just don’t see how he does anything of significance here. the only hope, is that the NL players aren’t used to him and he steals some games for us and that gets us a pennant.

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  104. On a somewhat different note, is there any doubt Myers either goes to another team or goes to the pen now? This rotation could have a major upgrade if they go Hamels-Moyer-Kendrick-Blanton-Happ (or whatever order they choose to use). And Moyer’s probably gone after this year, so Carrasco really isn’t blocked.

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  105. Great, we have an ace three 4/5 pitchers and a rockstar in our starting rotation… Myers better be improved otherwise this trade is ugly.

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  106. And FWIW, the general opinion of those outside this and other Phillies boards is that this helps the Phillies now and while Cardenas will probably be a good player, nothing that makes us cry over losing him, while Blanton can help get us a pennant this year. Just saying.

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  107. The phillies will regret this deal; I expected more from Gillick. It’s a conflict of interest to allow him to make this trade now when, in 4 months, he’ll have no vested interest in the future of the phillies. You can’t trade away our number 2 prospect (and outman) for a below average pitcher. In my opinion, they would have been better served demoting eaton(addition by subtration); calling up Happ to start and calling up outman to pitch relief. If they aren’t gonna bust slot to get top talent in the system they don’t have the pieces to piss away on a whim.

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  108. My lord, can we ease up on the “this sets us back further..Last i checked we are in first place with a great nucleus and steadily improving farm…we didnt give up jay bruce nor did we receive back sabathia…We got a guy who helps us and we gave up a decent prospect…We wanted them to be more aggressive in the draft and we DID, whether u like hewitt or not it was still an aggressive draft…on another note PP told the blanton backers to not say negative things to the naysayers when its obvious about 15:1 in reverse but that appears to be ok..Im not thrilled about the trade but it clearly is an upgrade and im willing to atleast give it a shot..go phils

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  109. And FWIW, the general opinion of those outside this and other Phillies boards is that this helps the Phillies now and while Cardenas will probably be a good player, nothing that makes us cry over losing him, while Blanton can help get us a pennant this year. Just saying

    And this isn’t directed at you, but most “outsiders” also still look at the back of a baseball card to determine if a player is good or not, and most of them probably have less than zero idea who Cardenas, Outman and Spencer are.

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  111. This is a better package then the cubs gave up for Harden. I don’t mind trading prospects for players but this was above market. Remember Loshe’s number when he came over last year are very similar and he did a very good job for us, but he only cost us a mildly useful lefthander. Honestly i think that the phils will trade myers this offseason and wanted a pitcher under control. Next years rotation most likely looks like
    Hamel
    Kendrik
    moyer
    blanton
    Happ
    Not very inspiring.

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  112. PhuturePhillies, your not kidding, you should see the Philadelphia Phillies forum on MLB.com, this quote just flabbergasted me.

    “Have any of these names been mentioned as one of the few quality minor leguers we have? MAYBE Outman but even that is questionable.”

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  114. I don’t think we gave up too much and I think Blanton will help signigicantly. As much as Sabathia? No. But to get someone like that…well…we couldn’t…but it would have included Marson, Cardenas, Outman, Carrasco + Golson or Donald.

    We still have the top prospects who will actually be able to contribute at the ML level in the next year or so.

    I didn’t like seeing Cardenas’ name listed…but it sure was a lot better than seeing Carrasco or Marson.

    Just my opinion, which we are all entitled to. Go Phils!

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  115. This was an excert from Milb.com on the trade:

    Blanton, who had been mentioned in trade rumors for the past 16 months, went 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA in 20 first-half starts for the A’s, who last week traded right-handers Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin to the Cubs for four players of considerably less acclaim.

    I have no problem with the addition of blanton It’s that we gave up WAY to much value. Ironically Gio Gonzalez will be replacing blanton in the A’s rotation.

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  116. People, it’s not the end of the world.

    phuturephillies, you have a lot of knowledge about these prospects, and I’m a daily reader on this site, but your making it alot worse than it seems. Every time a deal that happens we will all be sad because its our prospects. What would we have gotten instead of Blanton? Bedard on the DL? Burnett with his inconsistency and crazy contract option? Blanton chews up innings. How many pitchers do that consistently? Only the top notch pitchers. It’s all uphill for Joe Blanton and the Phils.

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  117. On another note, Worley had another great start tonight. 7ip 2h 0r 0er 0bb 5k lowers his era to 1.00

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  118. i’m just disgusted. We didn’t need another 4th starter. We needed a number 2 and when Sabbathia, Sheets Burnett, etc are available this winter, we’ll be spending our money on Blanton and Eaton. I’m going to be sick. This ML team is close and it just put us further back. Given another year in the minors we could have gotten some real value for Cardenas, similar to what the brewers did with LaPorta. Now we’ve just got someone that will keep fannies in the seats and the ownership will be happy with mediocrity. I’m just disgusted.

    On a good note, Happ seems like tonight he pitched like a man posessed.

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  119. I’m not a huge fan of the deal because I would rather see them role the dice with Happ, but I’m happy to still have Marson, Donald, and especially Carrasco. Cardenas might be able to play, but he’s years away and there is no guarantee that he is going to be even a “good” player. Even if nobody likes to admit it there is certainly value in a slightly above league average pitcher who is under team control for 2 1/2 years and throws a lot of innings. The going rate for these types of guys, like Carlos Silva last year, is about 4-5 years and 40-55 million dollars. I think it will help the Phils for the next few years, and you hope that Cardenas doesn’t turn into a stud. Sometimes everyone forgets that Gillick knows more about baseball than us; he has two World Series rings more than anybody that is posting on this board. Just saying.

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  120. For this year and next the rotation needed

    1) a top of the rotation starter and

    2) a bottom of the rotation innings eater

    to replace Eaton. If this is part of a 1-2 punch then
    it makes sense.

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  121. ***JA Happ rain shortened 7 inning NO HIT GAME ****

    Happ took over a suspended game from 7/3 and here’s what happened:

    Happ’s line tonight:

    7 innings
    0 hits
    0 runs
    (I believe 1 walk but I was not keeping score)

    He made a major statement tonight. He looked great, his control was pinpoint. He only gave up two solidly hit balls and both were caught near the warning track on nice plays. It was really encouraging to see this effort tonight. The crowd seemed to not even know what had just occurred.

    And in game two, Blackley got scratched for Knotts, who got hit around in the 1st inning. And Jaramillo had a passed ball and failed to block the plate on a wide throw. I don’t know what it is, but every time I go to a game he looks iffy behind the plate.

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  122. I won’t mind this trade if we add another top starter, Blanton is solid at #5 (yes five.) But I would also like to give Happ a shot, honestly, if Happ proves himself in the majors then I wouldn’t be sad to see Kendrick go.

    This trade complicates so many things…

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  123. John Says:
    July 17, 2008 at 10:04 pm
    On another note, Worley had another great start tonight. 7ip 2h 0r 0er 0bb 5k lowers his era to 1.00

    as did Roth and Naylor..and please dont compare laporta to cardenas, in terms of prospect status, lets not get crazy

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  124. “And this isn’t directed at you, but most “outsiders” also still look at the back of a baseball card to determine if a player is good or not, and most of them probably have less than zero idea who Cardenas, Outman and Spencer are.”

    While most people I asked didn’t, two people I did who follow the minors intensely and were familiar with the guys involved. Both agreed that the Phillies would lose in the long run, but it makes them better for at least the next 2.5 years, and both (one of them being a Cardenas lover) felt that he was overrated because he’s really a one tool guy (average) who may have a few other average tools. Most prospect for MLB trades include one team getting a long term benefit while the other gets a short term benefit.

    On a completely unrelated note, I looked up Billy Beane’s trade history, found at:
    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/06/gm-trade-histor.html

    Out of the last 25 trades he’s made (not including the Harden and Blanton deals), 2 have been player for cash, 3 are still too early to tell (Haren, Swisher, Kotsay), 17 have seemingly yielded absolutely nothing of value, and 3 have yielded a player who has made an above average contribution at the major league level. Let’s go over the notable (above-average or better) players he’s moved and who he’s gotten, not including the too early to tell trades:

    Given: Hudson, Mulder, Bradford, Byrnes, Ethier, Bradley
    Received: Haren, Calero, Gaudin, Bradley (who they traded a year and a half after getting him for Ethier)

    So, uh, forgive me if I don’t bow down to the “great Billy Beane”, maker of awesome trades and superduper evaluator of talent. He made one good trade (Mulder for Haren, Calero, and Barton) and a bunch of mediocre ones.

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  125. Blanton is the same age as Myers, here’s what they look like side by side.

    B. Myers 160 GS 62 – 56 4.49 (2008 3 – 9 5.84)
    J. Blanton 118 GS 47 – 46 4.25 (2008 5 – 12 4.96)

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  126. TY Duck, thats what ive been tryiong to point out…Beane is the most overrated person in this trade

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  127. Oh, and I forgot:

    7 innings- 12 K’s

    Too bad it was 24 hrs too late!

    I think this deal was questionable. Giving up either Outman OR Cardenas is OK but BOTH is a poor deal.

    We will be booing this guy same as Eaton, you watch.

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  128. ez-e,

    sorry wasn’t comparing the two (cardenas and laporta) just that given more time and when he moved up to reading next year that he would get more publicity than he has now and in turn more value. obviously two totally different types of hitters. I just despire firing our biggest bullets for a max 3rd starter/innings eater.

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  129. i agree mike, but we didnt have the bullets(unless we gave up marson and carrasco) for CC and harden has done0 in 2 years, so hes questionable(health wise) at best..bedard on DL burnett on and off with contract issues…we didnt give up the farm and we drafted alot of upside, im not that upset at what they have done

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  130. Blanton is better than Eaton, that I can concede, and trust me, I dislike Adam Eaton as much as any Phillies fan, but can never ever remember the Phillies releasing a player who was signed to a contract the following season. So unless Eaton fakes an injury (sucking isn’t an injury, unfortunately), I don;t know where he;s going.

    My problem is, when you look closely at Blanton’s numbers, you see the huge splits between his home and road performances over the last 2.5 seasons. That’s what bothers me. Sure, he’s going to give you innings, and there is value in that, but what kind of innings? The move from AL to NL will help him. But he doesn’t strike out tons of guys, and while he has a 1.34 GB:FB ratio this year, you have to take into context the fact that he puts a lot more balls in play, so he still does give up a lot of fly balls in the scheme of things (because he doesn’t stirke out a lot of guys), and those fly balls can turn into home runs in our home park, balls that would die in the gap in the A’s home yard.

    At the end of the day, I’m sad to see Cardenas go. Our system has hit a high point since I’ve been a fan, and now it almost feels like the house of cards is about to collapse. I certainly don’t have a problem trading prospects to help the big club, I just want to add quality in return, not just a warm body better than Adam Eaton. Because realistically, JA Happ is probably better than Adam Eaton at this point. But after the disappointment of the deal and losing Cardenas and Outman, of course I hope Blanton pitches his ass off and helps us reach the World Series. While I think Cardenas ends up the most valuable player in this deal, a World Series title will take all of the sting out of that fact.

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  131. eze

    guess it bugs me too that we’ve had what 20-30 sellouts this year and ownership is going the cheap route (controllable pitchers) instead of going for it and spending big $ on a big time pitcher to pair with Cole. This team isn’t that far away, but we didn’t really improve that much with this. The ONLY positive of this is that Eaton is now done.

    Hopefully Happ will pitch like a pissed off pitcher like he should be and destroy the IL and come up in September or sooner and do well.

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  132. Release Eaton, Put Myers in the pen, Bring Happ up.

    This is exactly correct. Myers to setup role. Eaton to East Jabip or somewhere past it. And Happ to the roatation, unless a move is made for a real top of the rotation guy. Seems sensible. So it won’t happen.

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  133. All three prospects were in some ways disappointments this season. I thought Cardenas would hit for more power once he got out of the pitchers park in Lakewood but that did not happen. Spencer had a great post All Star run in the NY-Penn last year and again I thought we would see some pop from him at Clearwater once he got away from Bowman Field but I guess the FSL was a tougher adjustment for both of them than I thought. Outman could throw hard but had no command or control in the games I saw him start last year and relieve this year. Maybe they all will develope more quickly in the A’s organization. Blanton might surprise us if he keeps the ball down. Overall this season he has a 1.39 GO/AO and 1.65 at home with the A’s. If he can do that at CBP we might have something. Right now the reason Moyer has been more effective this year is his GO/AO is the second highest in his career where records are available at 1.40. Kendrick’s GO/AO is 1.34 down slightly from last years 1.42. That being said it is still about the No. 2 starter role. Because right now the Phils still do not have one and based on Myers minor league efforts where they had to turn off the stadium speed guns in Allentown and Reading when he pitched there they still do not have a No. 2. Gillick’s inability to acquire a No. 2 will be this teams down fall so what Blanton does really does not matter all that much. “He is what he is” a cheap up grade over Adam Eaton but J.A. Happ would have been an even better and cheaper up grade any way and we would still have three prospects in the organization.

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  134. The Phillies scouted Blanton and said his splitter was still nasty.

    He has a 3.95 ERA against lefties and one well over 6 against righties.

    I wrote a little about this tonight and it screams pitch selection problem to me. I think a move to the NL, combined with Ruiz catching him will make a huge difference in bringing down his numbers against righties.

    Honestly, this guy should have a low 4 ERA for the next two years. That makes him a 15 game winner caliber pitcher for 2009 and 2010.

    How can you NOT like that when you’re giving up an A-baller who’s blocked at the one position he can barely play defensively (second base).

    One of the Baseball America guys was on XM tonight saying Cardenas has no natural fielding position at the MLB level, and MAY, at best, be a well below average second baseman in the field (He did rate him as a potential poor man’s Utley, hitting for good average, but not having the power Utley did).

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  135. Ducky: I don’t want to get off track here, but to devalue what Billy Beane has done is positively ludicrous. He’s the reason why the A’s can consistently contend while maintaining one of the lowest payrolls in the game. If Beane didn’t constantly have to trade his veterans away before they hit free agency, who knows how good he could make the A’s?

    Oh, and Joe Blanton himself was a product of the now-famous 2003 Draft.

    My computer’s on the fritz and I can’t download the spreadsheet now, but to say he’s made “one good trade and a bunch of mediocre ones” is completely unfair — and you know that. He’s plain and simply the best GM in baseball, and yes, I’m damned scared of dealing with him.

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  136. Uh, that’s simply not true. The fact that they consistently compete is a testament to his draft evaluations and shrewd FA signings. His trade history, at least recently, hasn’t been very good at all.

    Also, I’ll trust the guy with 2 rings as a GM compared to the guy with 1 playoff series victory.

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  138. Ah, James taking a shot at me. I never see that.

    To be fair, none of us tonight have been fair. Fair enough?

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  139. One thing about this I find a bit intriguing is that Donald stays while Cardenas goes. Six months ago, I doubt many people would have rated Donald the better prospect; now you can make a pretty strong case that he is, given that he’s put up better numbers at a higher level and is playing a tougher defensive position. If the idea is to put one of them at third base in a year or two, Donald looks like the superior choice. (Lauber had something tonight about Arbuckle commenting that Cardenas didn’t have the arm for 3b.)

    That said, I still don’t like the deal. Granting that if Blanton rediscovers his ’07 form, it probably will help them get to the playoffs, this year and I guess next; once there, I have no more faith in Blanton than I would in Moyer or Kendrick. Bedard and Burnett might have more risk of flaming out or getting hurt, but you can also envision either of those guys stymieing the Cubs or Arizona in October.

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  140. In defense of Beane, in at least the championships argument, he plays moneyball. It works in the regular season and not the crap shoot that is the playoffs.

    As for the trade I hope Blanton can pitch like a number three but I just don’t think that will happen. Instinctively I’m also thinking Cardenas will become a star. Maybe I’ll be wrong on both accounts and we’ll see something in the middle, who knows.

    I think the key to this is being willing to bust slot in the draft to recoup talent. This also probably won’t happen. And for those saying “at least we’ve still got golson” please, give me a break. He’s not going to be anything.

    The bottom line is we’re closer to the World Series right now. How much closer? Probably not much. I want to like this deal but I just can’t, and it’ll take seeing baseball in 3 and half months from now to do it (or at that point in ’09 or ’10).

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  141. im undecided on this trade…i think we all need to calm down and see how blanton’s game plays at the bank first. spencer is obviously filler, outman’s future is unclear, and cardenas can rake. obviously its never easy to watch a 400 obp get in a plane to oakland, but save golson who beane wouldnt touch with a 6 foot polle, cardenas was the most logical good prospect to go. i dont see the phils making another trade before the deadline because there is no real need for it as long as werth produces consistently in RF. well we’d like to get rid of strikeout king and sub 300 obp feliz but he aint goin anywhere.

    i think happ will get the call if myers isnt straightened out after 4 starts or so, or they convert him to relief…which might work, but it kills his value.

    given the circumstances, im pleased the Lounatic is still in r-phils stripes, and that dom brown or edgar garcia didnt wind up in this deal. im also thankful we dont have to see adam eaton for a while

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  142. My most optimistic thought: Blanton will rely on opposing players umfamiliarity with his stuff for a half season and help the Phillies win the NL East as he turns over a new leaf.

    My most pessimistic thought: Blanton will quickly learn the directions from CBP to Pat’s steaks and will eat himself out of baseball.

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  144. Ah, James taking a shot at me. I never see that.

    To be fair, none of us tonight have been fair. Fair enough?

    It wasn’t a shot at you. It was a comment regarding the normal attacks of Beane’s record. Come to think of it, I can’t ever remember taking a shot at you, ever. You’re one of the regular readers here, you contribute a lot to the conversation. I wouldn’t attempt to alienate anyone who contributes value here.

    Its been a long day. The site got over 10,000 hits in a matter of about 8 hours. My bed calls..

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  145. Meh, I misinterpreted the comment then. It happens, especially on message boards and blogs like this. Congrats on the 10k hits in 8 hours.

    And FWIW, while I don’t think Beane sucks, I don’t think he deserves nearly the “legend” status some people give him. Low payroll or not, he’s in a 4 team division that’s been generally plagued by mismanagement and bad luck. He’s doing a great job there with what he can. But Florida has a smaller payroll and 2 championships in the time Beane’s been in Oakland. And it may just be the Philly fan in me talking, but I’ll take 2 WS and a whole bunch of really shitty seasons over consistent losses in the DS any day.

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  146. You may have forgotten. One of those World Series victories was with a huge payroll, which was quickly dismantled. Only one of them was with rookies and younger players.

    Huizenga helped lead to the downfall of baseball when he owned the Marlins. He bought a championship and every other team has been paying for it ever since. Except the Yankees and Boston, who always overpaid anyway.

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  147. i believe i mentioned this trade some months ago and certain individuals berated me, lets see, i forget their names. its a great trade we gave up nothing for a number 2/3 pitcher. lets hope happ does not get screwed by myers. next up pp,s man marson. now!

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  148. 1. It is ludicrious to either “give up on the Phills”, “stop watching this team” or any of those extremes over a prospect. Sorry but he’s a prospect.

    2. I think this trade WAS way too much to give up but in noooooo way will stop me from loving the phills, their farm, or this site.

    3. This trade was really the loss of just Cardenas. Spencer is nothing, From the 1st day I got here I heard Outman comparrisons to Fuentes, If he ends up like him we haven’t lost much.

    4. AJ Burnett would have been a worse mistake and his $24 million would have held this org back for 2 more yrs. We think Eaton’s contract is a burden, Burnett would have never opted out and would have been a strain on us. Plus any day he can pitch worse than Blanton, sure he can pitch better but he’s too inconsistent and not worth the financial commitment. WHy would AJ opt out if currently NO ONE wants him?

    5. I’d be ok if this was Bedard, and I truly dislike Bedard, but I could have understood it at least.

    6. In terms of value this raises DOnalds in my opinion, or at least in my opinion of how the Phills view him. Cardenas was offered up for Sabathia too it was rumored.

    7. The question I have for all of you is can Donald equal the production of Cardenas and if so isn’t he more valuable since he’s at a more demanding position?

    8. I don’t like this trade but if if we make a deep playoff run because of it I will never knock it.

    9. A new season starts Friday night, and as we all saw Thursday even the best picther in baseball can struggle at times, we still are in first place now let’s win this!!!!

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  149. When I saw the trade ticker tape by on the bottom of my screen last night, I nearly passed out. The Mutts are now tie with the Phillies. Florida is so close that you couldn’t put a wedge between us. The Phils offense is less than good. And they come up with this trade? The offense usually come alive in the 2nd half. The Mutts usually play worse. FLA. in an unknown. Atlanta awaits the leaders beating each other senseless. And the Phils come up with this trade?

    Cardenas was going somewhere he was a major bargaining chip. I wanted Outman reinstalled as a starter and to see him in Philly in 2 years. I liked Matt Spencer but he was expendible. Blanton’s 2-6 in his last 10 starts. His ERA has ballooned more than a run a game over that time. He beat the Phils for one of his wins too. Can you you say “dead arm”?

    If Blanton’s worth this, maybe Eaton’s worth Jay Bruce and a bottle of wine?

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  150. Pretty positive feedback on this deal, for obvious reasons. From Scott Lauber’s blog:

    “Personally, I think this was a gamble worth taking for the Phillies. Adrian Cardenas may turn out to be a .300 hitter in the majors, but it was hard to see that happening with the Phillies. Any time that I asked a team official about Cardenas, I was told that his best position was second base, which Chase Utley has pretty well-occupied. Assistant GM Mike Arbuckle told me Cardenas didn’t have the arm to play third, and his offensive numbers, projected to be above-average for a second baseman, would’ve been ordinary for an outfielder (there also is no telling if he could handle the defense in, say, left field). Josh Outman had struggled as a reliever, and after being shifted to the bullpen by the Phillies, a fresh start with a new organization may be what he needs.”

    The great thing I love is the Phils got a clear upgrade right now as they drive for a pennant, long-term help in the form of a No. 3/4 starter for the long two years and didn’t give up Carrasco or Marson — my fears.

    Nice job, Pat.

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  151. whatever you may think of blanton he certainly does not have a dead arm. he hasnt lost velocity, still regularlly hits 90 – 92, and his breaking ball looks like myers did 2 years ago before charlie pitched him every day. i wish no ill on brett but happ should definately be in this rotation. remember only last week when they sent him down charlie on dnl. laughing and saying dont worry about happ hell be back with a hearty laugh. the staff hamels, blanton, moyer, kendrick and happ. the pen lidge, myers, romero, durbin, ( nepp,s boy) swindell, 1 batter, madson,. i think eaton just got tendenitis. donald moved to 3rd, marson up now and carrasco waiting in the wings hopefully developing his duece.

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  152. Cardenas was blocked in Philly. I think he’s a Major Leaguer by the end of ’09. Outman will float from organization to organization. I think the A’s will make Spencer a pitcher. I was in Phoenix 3 wks. in ’07 and saw some Ariz. State games. He threw gas! 6′ 4″ lefty who hits 94, A’s probably want to play with his arm.

    Phillies lose on this deal. A fly ball pitcher like Blanton throwing in a tiny ballpark is not a good formula.

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  154. waking up this morning, i am left with one over arching conclusion…you are worth what the market says you are worth. everyone overvalues their prospects. but i am very confident that the phillies FO shopped these prospects to all mlb teams and blanton was the best offer. so as excited as we all get to have a 20 year old prospect hitting above .300 in A ball, none of the other GMs are very impressed or they would have made a move for him. i am sure gillick didn’t take the first offer. sorry to pour cold water on our system, but it is what it is.

    that being said, i don’t think that we gave up our top 3 prospects (marson, carrasco and donald) or any high cieling guy like brown or drabek. and you have to ask yourself, on an average farm system, how many of the top 10 prospects really make an impact in mlb? and do we really have an average farm or is it below average? and if so, how many of our top 10 will really make na impact in mlb?

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  155. Last night I was pissed when I heard about this trade…but the more I think about it and read other people’s thoughts (Keith Law) I’m not so sure that we just don’t tremendously overvalue our prospects. With that said, I still wish Cardenas was in the Phils system.

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  156. “Why are you so “all in” on saying this is a good deal? He may turn out ok, but the evidence is alarming.”

    Well, I shouldn’t be “all in” when the truth is nobody knows. But I do understand baseball and how trades work. Most fans do not understand the very simple concept that you must trade something to get something. Philly fans in particular, would not be happy unless we traded Bruntlett and Eaton for Sabathia. Even then, somebody would hate it.

    It’s even harder to get typical fans to understand trading prospects. Prospects represent the unknown – the romantic unknown. Just like backup NFL quarterbacks. Folks on this board seem to think Cardenas is going to be a major league star. That is a huge leap. A huge leap. You people need to realize that the majority, a big majority of prospects turn out to be fringe ML players, or average starters, or don’t make the majors at all.

    To say Cardenas would continue to advance three more rungs up the ladder to the majors and continue to be an above-average starter is a great leap of faith. Now to say he would do so while switching to another position is a longshot at best. That’s not to say he won’t be a serviceable ML starter. But anybody here who believes with any certainty that Cardenas is going to switch to LF and hit .300 with 20-homer power at the major league level is full of crapola. That is pure fantasy.

    For perspective, if anyone wants a dose of reality on how these things turn out – for every Scott Kazmir (a far better prospect than Cardenas) who is traded away, there are a dozen prospects-for-big leaguer deals that end up like the Billy Wagner trade. The Phils traded three pitching prospects – Brandon Duckworth, Ezequiel Astacio and Taylor Bucholtz. Only Bucholtz amounted to anything, and did so after being traded again and moving to the pen. I recall Phils fans being outraged (pitching prospects no less!) by that deal. Fans love to romance about the future.

    I concede the away pitching numbers on Blanton dilute his performance, but again – 14 wins, 33 starts and a 4.20 ERA over three seasons.

    I was very worried the Phils were going to part with Carrasco or Marson for 15 starts from Sabathia, or worse, Burnett. I was opposed to that, even though I understand sometimes you have to mortgage your future and go for a WS ring.

    I would much rather have this deal. The Phils clearly improved themselves for this pennant run (as Keith Law states, Blanton is clearly superior to Eaton), improved themselves in the long term by filling a rotation spot for 2009-10 with an above-average ML starter and did not give up Carrasco or Marson.

    That is why I am “all in” on this deal.

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  157. What I find particularly irksome is all this sabermetrics crap. Some people are just consumed by fly ball rations and Ks per nine now. People who are so consumed by these new-age stats wouldn’t give a pitcher like Kyle Kendrick the time of day. His K’s per nine are too low! He allows too many baserunners! His BABIP is too high! Or too low! (whatever one is the bad one).

    Well, the Phils are simply 27-12 in Kendrick’s 39 starts, a record that I’m betting is best on the staff.

    The Phils have done a good job building a team to fit their ballpark. Now we can debate whether Blanton is a good fit, but flyball pitchers have had success here. The Phils don’t need a staff of five Cole Hamels. They need some guys who can average 7 innings, or close to it, and give up 3-4 runs a start. Blanton thrives at that.

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  158. Let’s remember that the Phils’ major league team is a “win now” roster. There is a short window for success and they had to go for it, whether or not Gillick will be around next year.

    I think most aspects of the trade have been covered here, but I’d like to reiterate the point that Donald has more value right now than Cardenas. Cardenas might have a higher ceiling, but Donald put up a .300/.386/.491 line at Clearwater last year vs. Cardenas this year at .309/.374/.444. Since Donald is the better fielder of the two, I’m actually happy we held on to Donald.

    I admit that there are mitigating factors, since Cardenas is putting up that line at 20 vs. Donald having put it up at 22. In addition, Donald is blocked by the reigning MVP just like Cardenas is “blocked” by Utley.

    The second observation I have is that the Phils converted Outman because they wanted him to contribute this year. I would not be surprised to see the A’s let him start again and see what he can do. That might end up being the biggest disappointment down the road.

    The last observation is to pick up on a point someone else made – we ended up keeping Donald, Marson and Carrasco, who all have either good current value or good upside (or both). That means there is potential for another deal to be made, since the trade deadline is not imminent. I would be excited to see the big club bring in a guy with ace-quality stuff, like Burnett or Bedard. With a rotation of Hamels, Burnett/Bedard, Moyer, Blanton, Kendrick, I would take this team over any other in the NL…ok maybe not the Cubs, but it would be close.

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  159. Blanton is an OK pitcher. Is he an upgrade over Happ? We’ve only seen two major league games, but he (Happ) seems capable of keeping us in games, which is what we’re expecting of Blanton right? Why not just bring Happ up full-time instead of making this trade?

    Seems like a waste of a good young prospect in Cardenas. And possibly a servicable lefty ML reliever in Outman. Doesn’t our ML team need another lefty reliever…?

    It looks bad to me. Time will tell.

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  160. Oh yeah, I’m a little surprised we haven’t seen a straight up Golson for Oswalt deal yet.

    Kidding, but Wade really is a terrible GM. If I were Gillick I’d be calling him every day.

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  161. as i thought more about this last night and this morning the ONLY way I’m good with this cost conservative move is if the rotation changes from this year to next year as follows:

    2008:
    1)Hamels 900k
    2)Myers–9 Million
    3)Moyer– 6.5 million
    4)Kendrick–450k
    5)Eaton–8.5 million

    Pitching coach-Rich Dubee, priceless (sarcastic)
    Total of approx 25.5

    2009
    1)Hamels 4 million
    2)Sheets (15 million) (part of 5 year 100 million deal) (ya i know i’m dreaming
    3)Blanton–4 million
    4)Kendrick– 900k
    5)Happ–400k

    Total of approx 24 million

    Pitching Coach–Jamie Moyer

    Eaton can be the bat boy

    I realize its a pipe dream, but its my pipe dream!

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  162. Alot is being made of Blanton’s home / road splits which are not pretty at first glance. His home era is 3.79 compared to a road era of 4.78. That would however to see very extreme the most favorable pitchers park you would not expect it to make a 0.99 difference in ERA. If you take his road era as a true reflection of his ability to allow runs, and his home era as a reflection of how he is assisted by his home ballpark then that would seem to suggest that the McAfee Collisium has suppressed the amount of runs Blanton has allowed over his career by 21% which is a ridicilously high figure.

    Over the past four seasons Oakland’s McAfee Collisium has produced Park Factors of 89, 89, 98 and 104, which crudely average out to 95 over Blanton’s career, meaning that all things being equal, pitching his home games in Oakland should suppress his runs allowed by 5%. Therefore, again, if you take his road ERA to be a true reflection of his ability then you would expect his home ERA to be around the 4.50 mark not the 3.79 that it actually is.

    Looking closer at Blanton’s peripherals in his home/road splits you see even more supporting evidence that his road ERA is not a true reflection of his ability:

    HOME – 408.1 IP ] 0.75/9 HR/IP ] 2.27/9 BB/9 ] 2.22/1 K/BB
    ROAD – 352.1 IP ] 0.89/9 HR/IP ] 2.53/9 BB/9 ] 2.04/1 K/BB

    The ratios there are eerily similar with the only major difference being in hits allowed per nine – 8.93 against 10.34. However part of this can attributed to his splits in BABIP – .282 to .314 indicating that Blanton has been a bit unlucky away from home over his career.

    Blanton true ability as a SP would seem to be a innings eater (there is a huge stigma against being called an innings eater – a SP who can provide 200+ better than league average innings is a tremendous asset for any team) who would provide an ERA around 4.00 and there is a huge amount of value in that, especially considering that the Phillies now control him for another 2 1/2 years before he hits free agency.

    Cardenas is the centerpiece and is the one that probably hurts the most at the moment but you have to give up quality to get quality. He looks like he should be a solid offensive 2B, but there are question marks over his power and defense, and he is still only in A ball so he is far from a sure thing – all this talk of the new Sandberg, Utley or even Hornsby is pretty ridicilous. I don’t know too much about the other two but it would seem that Outman, while he has a nice arm, struggles with his control and command and at 23 is not that young for AA. He is a nice arm to have but not one to lose sleep over. Reports I’ve read on Spencer say that his pitch selection ability is poor and unless he learns to improve that he will not make it as a major league hitter. He has nice power potential but is a long shot to develop into anything useful. Again a good player to take a flyer on, but hardly worth losing sleep over.

    If Blanton was a rental then I could understand the outcry on this deal. Blanton is having a poor year this season but when you consider what Beane’s reported demands were in the off season the Phillies are buying low on Blanton and this could turn out to be a good trade for them.

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  163. Blanton is a fringe average starter. He isn’t an upgrade. If we wanted an average starter we could have just pulled up Carrasco or left Happ in the rotation. Both would probably give a comparable performance to what we are going to see from Blanton.

    The Phils may not need a staff of five Cole Hamels, but they need a staff with two if they want to be competetive. We didn’t need another starter to come in and thrive at mediocrity.

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  164. To be honest, some of the things said in this string of comments I find mildly disappointing. But I realize that lots of people who found this site because of the trade will probably never be back, so I think its best if I just sit back and let everyone have their say, and I don’t say anything else about the deal. This will pass and normal service will be resumed on Monday.

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  165. I don’t mind this trade.

    This was a trade to protect the bullpen arms.
    Blanton has shown he can give you plenty of innings.

    Cardenas had to be the big prospect to go because:

    1. Blocked at second by Utley.

    2. Move to third not likely.
    a. How did third base go for Utley during his time there?
    b. Donald is just as likely to handle a switch to third as Cardenas.
    c. Travis Mattair is going to be the Phillies third baseman of the future. Why switch anyone to third when the brass believes in the guy they’re developing?

    3. The phillies don’t need offense in 3 years, they need arms on the big club right now.

    4. I LOVE the phillies prospects.

    Outfield: Taylor, Golson, Myers, Brown.
    Infield: Donald, Galvis, Mattair, Harmon.
    catchers: Jaramillo, Marson
    Pitchers: Carrasco, Happ, Drabek, Sampson, Naylor, Carpenter.

    Who has done a better job of developing organizational players to the big club than the Phillies? We got our draftees all over the Major league club. Let Mike Arbuckle continue with his farm system and prey he will be our next GM over Amaro cause Arbukle is the guy that was in charge of drafting and the farm which got us Burrell, Rollins, Utley, Howard, Myers, Kendrick, Ruiz, Hamels, Madsen, and many other traded MLB’ers like Bourn, Floyd, Byrd, Padilla, Silva, and so on.

    The phillies Farm system is consistantly underrated by the pros but keeps producing major leaguers.

    Mike Arbuckle for GM!!!!!!!

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  166. YAY!!!!!!!!!! This trade is awesome. I can’t believe we pulled this one off. I am absolutely estactic over this trade, wow we really robbed them. OOOOOO wait, crap I’m not an A’s fan. deal sucks Hey the way Gillick is going maybe we should call Arizona and offer them Marson For R. Johnson hey that might help our rotation…..

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  168. tom,

    no we haven’t. I expect (and pray) that Myers’ start tonight in Single A Clearwater will be a good one and that he’ll be back for Tuesday or Wednesday against the mets. We’d all expect that blanton takes Eaton’s spot, not Myers.

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  169. “To be honest, some of the things said in this string of comments I find mildly disappointing. But I realize that lots of people who found this site because of the trade will probably never be back, so I think its best if I just sit back and let everyone have their say, and I don’t say anything else about the deal. This will pass and normal service will be resumed on Monday.”

    Probably directed at me. I visit and post quite often. I have seen Blanton coming to the Phils for over a year now. In the offseason I am the one who proposed a Burrell-for-Blanton move. So I am quite happy that it didn’t take an established ML player to get him.

    Dude, if you’re going to be condescending to other posters, at least attempt to debate issues and points. This is your second post indicating that you are holier than thou above the fray and won’t comment.

    yeah, I get that. So don’t comment.

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  170. TO ALL:
    It’s amazing how we all loved Cardenas and people (too many for my liking) are now saying he is far from a proven thing. No crap he’s far from a proven thing, welcome to the world of prospects, but as far as prospects go he was our most projectable bat.

    This comment will probably get lost in this massive thread, but isn’t this exactly the aim to what you (James) started out to do. I remember when the Phillies got Moyer and I heard the 2 prospects they gave up and I scratched my head and said who?

    Then this site appeared and now we all understand the importance of prospects and the impact of the draft/trades/rule 5. So with that I think this site has given us an indepth look at to what we lost, not just who. And that’s priceless. So while this might be frustrating to you at least take solace in that.

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  171. The word on the street is that the Blanton trade is a precursor to: (a) a Myers trade (this is why Myers will be back in Philly ASAP in order to showcase his abilities); (b) removal of Eaton from rotation; and (c) promotion of Happ once those other steps have been accomplished. I feel much better about the Blanton trade if the minor league system is re-stocked through a trade of Myers. Under this scenario, the Blanton trade would make sense assuming that Blanton truly has more ability than Myers (I’m not so sure about this, but I guess time will tell). In any event, they need to have a short-term goal of getting Happ back to the big leagues – he is wasting precious outings dominating AAA hitters at this point.

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  172. Dude, if you’re going to be condescending to other posters, at least attempt to debate issues and points. This is your second post indicating that you are holier than thou above the fray and won’t comment.

    Condescending? No, this is a condescending remark

    What I find particularly irksome is all this sabermetrics crap. Some people are just consumed by fly ball rations and Ks per nine now. People who are so consumed by these new-age stats wouldn’t give a pitcher like Kyle Kendrick the time of day. His K’s per nine are too low! He allows too many baserunners! His BABIP is too high! Or too low! (whatever one is the bad one).

    This site is built on more than looking at runs and RBI totals. If you want that kind of analysis, you can find it any number of sites. These things people are looking at, including K rate, BABIP and the other things you’ve mocked have all proven to be very strong indicators of future success. The fact that you visit regularly and don’t realize the weight placed on these numbers is what I find surprising.

    This isn’t about a high horse, a holier than thou attitude, or anything else. Everyone is free to their own opinion and take. If they weren’t, I’d just start purging comments from this string and leave all of the ones that say they don’t like the deal. I just don’t appreciate people bashing the model with which this site is built upon and not really providing anything to back up their opinion. As I’ve said many times in the past; disagree with me all day every day, but provide analysis and support for your belief. “Dan” who posted below you, used actual numbers to say why he thinks this deal will work, numbers that have substance. That’s all I’m asking for.

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  173. jake,

    do you need to be SO confrontational? There’s 180 comments on this page? any reason you assume he’s talking to you? I’ve only been on this site about a month but me for one appreciates all the work and time phuturephillies puts in on this and its certainly helped me learn a lot more and appreciate a lot more our minor league system so i’ll just end this point by saying thanks to him.

    catch22,

    check my post above relating to next years pitching staff and in that scenario i’d like to forsee a myers trade for a bat (to replace Pat who likely won’t be back in LF (maybe a Xavier nady type?)

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  174. Don’t expect alot of “restocking” if somehow Gillick is able to find a taker for Myers with his 89 MPH fastball and 12 million remaining $ or so.

    How about we stop arguing about Cardenas and figure out who is going to be promoted now? I’m guessing German might be the new lefty reliever for Reading. Not sure Brown is ready to take over outfield in Clearwater just yet. Does Lakewood have any second basemen worth mentioning?

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  175. “This site is built on more than looking at runs and RBI totals. If you want that kind of analysis, you can find it any number of sites. These things people are looking at, including K rate, BABIP and the other things you’ve mocked have all proven to be very strong indicators of future success. The fact that you visit regularly and don’t realize the weight placed on these numbers is what I find surprising.”

    I realize it and mocked it. What part of that didn’t you get? You do a great job providing info about our minor leaguers. That I enjoy, but I’m old school. I just happen to place a greater emphasis on wins, losses and runs scored over BHIBP or whatever that is.

    “This isn’t about a high horse, a holier than thou attitude, or anything else. Everyone is free to their own opinion and take. If they weren’t, I’d just start purging comments from this string and leave all of the ones that say they don’t like the deal. I just don’t appreciate people bashing the model with which this site is built upon and not really providing anything to back up their opinion. As I’ve said many times in the past; disagree with me all day every day, but provide analysis and support for your belief. “Dan” who posted below you, used actual numbers to say why he thinks this deal will work, numbers that have substance. That’s all I’m asking for.”

    Like I said, you stat geeks would rank Kyle Kendrick a notch below Nuke LaLoosh. Yet the Phils are 27-12 in games he has started. How did that happen? He gives up way too many hits and his Ks per nine is awful. I’ve been reading about how Kendrick can’t possibly succeed for a year now and the kid just keeps winning.

    The new-age stats are fine. I grew up a Bill James reader, but the inflexible pronouncements of gloom and doom are wrong. Just use sabermetrics as another tool — not the end all be all. Things like wins, losses and runs scored still count for something.

    As for Blanton I’ve practically wrote a book here full of detailed, supporting evidence on why I support the deal.

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  176. ARGUE ARGUE ARUGE ARGUE ARGUE ARGUE!

    I’M SMART.

    ARGUE ARGUE ARGUE ARGUE ARGUE ARGUE!

    That’s not directed at any one person, but I guess this is becoming a quite divisive issues. I like the trade, as stated, but I’m suspending my judgement until the end of the year.

    I’m just going to say this: taking a guy and putting him in the middle of a race when all he’s seen recently is his best friends and best teammates get sold off piece meal will do a lot for his motivation and determination. I think a lot of his decline recently is driven by that. He’s made no secret of it and from what I’ve seen on A’s boards is that he hasn’t been happy lately. I think he’ll be happy here (IF he performs).

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  178. first i want to say I really appreciate the sight. i’m a long time reader/lurker, first time poster. i must say i am feeling positive about the trade but not that positive. blanton is definitely an upgrade over eaton and adds value to the rotation. the fact we get him for two more arb years is nice. i also get the feeling mostly because of the quality of this website, in that we now know our prospects, that we might be over valuing our guys. that also has something to do with lack of positional prospects in the organization. i know cardenas is young but i don’t know what he projects to be. if he just continues as he is know we are looking at a 2nd basemen with an OPS around 820. which is damn solid but not irreplaceable. i’m in the camp of happy we gave up cardenas instead of donald who seems like he will SLG more. i am disappointed that outman was included in the deal but i think the phils have screwed up his development anyways with the move to the bullpen. i would be more postive on the deal if i didn’t think happ could come in and do pretty much what blanton will. he might still do that since i don’t see myers turning it around. overall i see the phils as having needed two SPs especially a #2. we got a 3/4 with blanton and kept a 4 with happ in case myers still sucks. we gave up a future low 800s OPS 2nd basemen and a wildcard in outman. i’m not ecstatic but i’m okay with it. sorry i’m rambling. We all seem to overvalue what we have in our system, hell it’s what humans do and kahneman won the nobel prize in economics for proving it. once again thanks for the site and remember we only have 3 more years of the Utley/Rollins/howard prime so the phils have to make some moves. They did one without giving up carrasco, marson, donald, happ. If only we could’ve drugged beane in to taking golson instead and not taking outman.

    Two questions: what do you project cardenas mlb offensive output as? And it seems like we could’ve got a lot more for him next year if he put up similar numbers in reading, how much more?

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  179. wolf said it best, positive but not that positive. We needed a 1/2 and got a 3(hopefully). We were getting somebody, would we all rather bedard and burnett by giving up a marson or a carrasco? Plus Blanton is not a headcase/injury prone pitcher like those alternatives. The deal has not crippled the Phillies or our farm system. This is going to be a wait and see move. It is in no way as bad as Garcia for Floyd/Gio.

    Now we need to stop the bickering. I need to get through my workday just like the rest of you and arguing does not make the seconds go by any faster.

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  180. Does Lakewood have any second basemen worth mentioning?

    No, unfortunately not. Derrick Mitchell has a bit of pop in his bat, but he’s still undisciplined at the plate and his OBP isn’t great. Though, he’d be the most likely to get the call, I’d imagine. The Lakewood infield, besides Freddy Galvis, isn’t really one to write home about

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  181. “You misspelled “argue” once there.”

    That was funny.

    So my guess to the roster move is that the Phills just send Bisenius down and do nothing about the real problem, Eaton.

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  182. Another probably overlooked element of this trade is that it isn’t strictly, or even primarily, a “win now” deal. Were Blanton a free agent after this year, no way would the package going back have been as strong as it was. Remember that the deals for Lidle, Moyer and Lohse all came in their walk years; the Phils re-signed the first two in the off-season, and, well, we know about Lohse.

    Given that Gillick is leaving, then, I wonder if this was Amarbuckle’s doing.

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  183. “Amarbuckle.” Ha, I like that.

    That’s definitely the silver lining, dajafi. Only Hamels and Kendrick are sure bets going forward into next year (though personally, I’d probably add Happ), so Blanton will certainly help in that regard.

    I wish Joe the best… it’s just not the deal I would have struck in the Phils’ position.

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  184. I have been locked into this site for two years and love the content. I now travel around to see the farm clubs more often. I will admit to beeing overly fond of our prospects going back to Costen Shockley and Joe Verbanic as a kid. I do have a good eye for talent now and am very sad that we gave up Cardenas and Outman. I was hopeful that bringing up Outman would give him exposure to Moyer and Hamels. He has the stuff—just needs some strong coaching. Cardenas can flat out hit and will force his way into the majors in a couple years.
    Phuture is right about ignoring the blocking–project his value in 2 years in a trade and it would make him a chip for a real improvement like Cain from the Giants instead of a hope and a prayer.
    We have a long history of being hosed in trades and I hope this is not another example.

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  185. For those who care what public personalities think:

    Arbuckle was on Jody Mac sr950.com today. maybe you can
    find the entire interview if you wish..

    so here’s the short of what Arbuckle said:

    1) Cardenas was vita to this deal being done

    2) Oakland seems to move Outman to the rotation and they feel he can be a 4th or 5th starter in a year +

    3) With Happ and a few others Outman was expendable (if that’s the correct word)

    4) Arbuckle stated that the PHILLIES feel that Cardenas does not project to any other position on the field other than 2b, & w Utley at 2B, and “other infield prospects” they felt AC could be dealt. He explicitly mentioned that Cardenas’ bat and offensive production/projections are “not those that you prefer from a LF.
    ===============
    im just reporting what I heard (and did expand on a few comments based on what the questoin was and the extended answer.

    agree or disagree- this is what Arby said.

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  186. Been lurking for years; love the site and it has really helped increase my knowledge of and love for the phils.

    Jake, it’s okay to be “old school,” but being old school may cause you to look at the wrong things when making your argument.

    For example, as you point out, the Phillies are 27-12 in Kyle Kendrick’s 39 starts. Kendrick has these stats (all of which are “old school”):

    IP CG SHO H ER HR BB SO W-L ERA
    225.2 0 0 250 104 28 57 96 18-7 4.15

    Under your team wins-losses metric, Kyle Kendrick is slightly better than Cole Hamels — the Phils are 26-13 in Hamels last 39 starts. You probably don’t need this to know that Hamels is better, but:

    IP CG SHO H ER HR BB SO W-L ERA
    263 3 2 217 96 35 60 233 18-10 3.29

    Note also that Kendrick’s W-L record is better than Hamels’. What this means is that pitcher wins and losses, or team wins and losses when a pitcher starts, are no more meaningful a measure of the value of a pitcher than HR allowed (a metric under which KK is a full 20% better than Cole).

    For the team as a whole, wins and losses count. For comparing 2 pitchers, they have very little value. It’s not that “the kid just keeps winning,” it’s that the Phils just keep winning when KK pitches, probably because they are averaging 6.33 runs/game in his starts (compared to 5.03 runs/game for Hamels’ last 39 starts). The Blanton trade may turn out to be good or bad, but the fact that Blanton doesn’t have great peripherals means he will need significant help from the offense/bullpen.

    I’m undecided on the trade, but note that Blanton only has 6 road starts in 2008 and therefore his ERA may be a reflection of small sample size (though I recognize his career home/road splits are consistent with this year’s results).

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  187. I am late to the party but I do not like the deal. My feelings are based more on my dislike for Blanton and the Phils FO (who created this situation) than my appreciation for Cardenas. Considering his atrocious numbers away from Oakland, I think its fair to say that Blanton potentially provides the Phillies with another 3rd or 4th starter, a role that is already filled by Kendrick, Moyer and most likely Myers upon his return. Obviously taking Eaton out of the rotation is a huge benefit, but couldn’t that have been accomplished with JA Happ, Corrasco, an 07/08 offseason acquisition or even another cheaper deadline acquisition a la Lohse or Moyer.

    Plus, don’t you have to loook at the fact that we could have acquired a pitcher to fill Eaton’s role in the offseason, thus preventing us from having to give up one of our top three prospects for a 3/4 starter at the deadline. Lohse was available and eventually signed for 4.25 million in the offseason. Forget Lohse’s performance this year becaues not even Lohse’s mother expected it, but even assuming a performance similar to what he gave us last year, isn’t he just below Blanton on the value scale. The point is, the FO put themselves in this situation and than had to dig themselves out of it. We should never have been in a position where we desperately needed a 3/4 starter at the deadline to even stay in the division race.

    In reality, the Phillies needed an impact pitcher to pair with Hamels at the top of the rotation if they wanted any hope of a WS. We are no closer to that today then we were yesterday, we are just lighter in the farm system by one top prospect/trading chip… how that can be seen as a good move on paper is beyond me. That is not saying Blanton can’t change that with his performance, but at first glance it does nothing for the Phils WS chances that couldn’t have been accomplished in a far cheaper manner.

    Jake –

    I’m not questioning your baseball knowledge, but if you prefer to judge your pitchers by wins and losses, doesn’t the fact that he is a career .500 pitcher concern you. Doesn’t his 5-12 record this year atleast raise a red flag.

    Your appreciation for Kendrick is obvious (and shared by me) but, ignoring everything else, Blanton doesn’t win like Kendrick. Over the past two years, Blanton is 19-22 while Kendrick is 18-7. Would you say that, based on those win numbers, Kendrick is better than Blanton? Or that you would give up Cardenas for Kendrick in a deal? My point is, you have to atleast look at the stats behind the wins to determine a players value and Blanton’s stats away from Oakland are atleast a major concern and should effect his value. Same way they would effect Halliday’s if he was traded.

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  188. The home/road splits on Blanton are a legitimate issue. However, as I have said, a flyball pitcher can have success at the Bank. This is something the media doesn’t talk much about.

    However, I certainly consider Myers a flyball pitcher. Hamels as well. I’m sure some stat exists to either confirm or deny this. But Myers has certainly been terrible this year, particularly with the HR ball.

    Their ERA home/road splits the past three years:

    2008:

    Myers: 3.81 (H); 8.18 (R) (if you have him on your fantasy team, don’t start Brett on the road)

    Hamels: 2.79 (H); 3.72 (R)

    2007:

    Myers: 3.76 (H); 5.04 (R)

    Hamels: 3.25 (H); 3.51 (R)

    2006:

    Myers: 3.73 (H); 4.06 (R)

    Hamels: 3.97 (H); 4.17 (R)

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  189. When I think of Cardenas at the MLB level, I think Orlando Hudson. Cardenas might have a little more power or a little more speed, but an .800 OPSer with 10 HR pop and 10 SB speed, although reports seem to indicate that Cardenas is an average fielder at best. Taking team needs out of account, on pure talent, I think that would be a fairly even trade. This seems like a fairly even trade. But as I’ve said before, there’s no reason to judge baseball trades until a few months or even years have passed.

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  190. Glen — Thanks for the response.

    No, I am certainly not suggesting Kendrick is better than Hamels. As I said, the new-age stat folks have been dismissing Kendrick as a fairly worthless ML starter for a year now. He clearly is a solid ML — at least for this team.

    “Note also that Kendrick’s W-L record is better than Hamels’. What this means is that pitcher wins and losses, or team wins and losses when a pitcher starts, are no more meaningful a measure of the value of a pitcher than HR allowed (a metric under which KK is a full 20% better than Cole).

    For the team as a whole, wins and losses count. For comparing 2 pitchers, they have very little value.”

    I think that is fairly preposterous. The starting pitcher is the lead player in a game. Bad pitchers take you out of games and good pitchers keep you in games. Win games for you even.

    My point is KK is a great fit for this team not because he gives up 5.4 hits per game, or strikes out 10 a game — both of which would endear him to the sabermetrics crowd. But because he just pitches consistently (and unspectacularly) and doesn’t get rocked — keeping the Phils in their games.

    Blanton is a very similar pitcher — but better in that he doesn’t tire after six innings, which KK is prone to do.

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  191. Sorry for the double post, but:

    Andy Barb and Andrew Baldwin for Jamie Moyer.

    I can’t find anywhere with just his Seattle splits from 2006, but he had a 3.84 home ERA for the year and a 4.88 away ERA. I’m going to call that a good trade for the Phillies, and look, we had him for 2.5 years of solid pitching. I know Barb and Baldwin weren’t even Outman’s level (at least I don’t think they were?), but we just got a solid 3/4 who will eat innings and throw very few stinkers. And we didn’t have to give up Carrasco, who could be our #2 if he pans out.

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  192. jake – your long winded posts aren’t adding value.

    the world evolves and sports evolve and to ignore sabermetrics is ignorant. the Redsox and As are built on it and have done much better than the old schoolers the past 5 years. it is a known fact that looking at win-loss record is completely useless as an indicator of value. wins-losses are based more on run support and the players around you than other controllable metrics.

    Here is another way of looking at the trade. if we substituted blanton’s Earned Runs for Eaton’s in each of Eaton’s games, the results would have been:

    Changed Result:
    loss from win: 2
    no change: 11
    tie from loss: 2
    tie from win: 2
    Win from loss: 2

    so i know that blanton was in the AL (which has the DH) so it is not completely a fair comparison. Blanton had 11 quality starts to eaton’s 10. but has pitched 20% more innings (normalizing for same number of games).

    all in, looking at these numbers, it is hard to see how this deal dramatically improves the phillies as people like Stark and Law suggest. i just can’t find a metric that suggests that it does. my only hope is that the NL teams don’t recognize blanton’s stuff the first time through and that steals us some extra games. the NL east might come down to a game or two like last year, so even a minor upgrade might add value.

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  193. 1. “I’m not questioning your baseball knowledge, but if you prefer to judge your pitchers by wins and losses, doesn’t the fact that he is a career .500 pitcher concern you. Doesn’t his 5-12 record this year atleast raise a red flag.”
    2. I really consider this year kind of a fluke. Blanton has been a solid, above average No. 3 ML starter for a few years now.
    “Your appreciation for Kendrick is obvious (and shared by me) but, ignoring everything else, Blanton doesn’t win like Kendrick. Over the past two years, Blanton is 19-22 while Kendrick is 18-7. Would you say that, based on those win numbers, Kendrick is better than Blanton? Or that you would give up Cardenas for Kendrick in a deal? My point is, you have to atleast look at the stats behind the wins to determine a players value and Blanton’s stats away from Oakland are atleast a major concern and should effect his value. Same way they would effect Halliday’s if he was traded.”
    Good points and I agree. The point is to look at all of the stats. Blanton had the 7th lowest run support in the NL. He isn’t going to be pitching behind Oakland’s offense anymore. He’ll be pitching behind Philly’s offense. As I have said, the home/road splits are a cause for concern. But the above H/R splits for Myers and Hamels indicate that a starting pitcher can have success at the Bank.

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  194. I’m on record as liking the Phillies’ acquisition of Joe Blanton. Let’s round up other reactions to the trade today.

    Bill Conlin isn’t a fan of Blanton.

    The Transaction Guy sees nearly a 1.5 win gain for the Phillies this year, and isn’t too impressed by Oakland’s return.

    Keith Law thinks the Phillies’ gain could approach two wins this year, even while considering the smaller park and inferior defense for Blanton. He considers the prospect package reasonable.

    Joel Sherman considers Blanton the pitcher Adam Eaton was meant to be.

    Tom Goyne says Blanton is the B-level acquisition we expected the Phillies to make. He doesn’t think the Phillies will miss the prospects they gave up.

    Dave Cameron believes Phillies fans will ultimately be frustrated with Blanton, as his low home run per flyball rates are not sustainable.

    Ken Davidoff is surprised Pat Gillick and Billy Beane matched up for a trade, and gives the edge to the Phillies. This does appear to be the first Gillick-Beane matchup, but I wonder how much of the work A’s assistant GM David Forst did.

    SI.com’s Jon Heyman thinks the A’s waiting too long to trade Blanton, noting their spring demand for Johnny Cueto and then some.

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  195. That trade was absolutely stupid,I’ve met Adrian before and he’s a good pal of mine!

    Him going to the A’s was not cool.,Espicially not for somebody sucky like Blanton!,Outman was just gonna be called to the majors!,Now it’s not gonna happen.,And it’s too bad cause he was good in Reading!

    And Spencer,Who had a good spring and was really starting to get pretty amazing to see as a thresher just went down the toilet!

    The White Sox traded their Top 3 best prospects for nick swisher before the season started,At least Nick was better in Oakland than Joe will ever be!

    But now the threshers season is doomed more than before considering they are not doing so good as a team anyways,At least for this year!

    I’m not trying to be cruel even though it sounds like i am!

    I’m just saying this year is different compared to 2007!

    They’re doing their best and trying hard to win!

    But Adrian and Matt leaving just means they need win more,With or without Adrian and Matt!

    The Threshers are a great team and i’m not trying to tell them they are bad,I Think they are good players!

    My point is without Adrian and Matt!,Who’s gonna help save the season now?

    A Lakewood infielder or a retred from 2003 or a free agent?

    Who are we gonna call besides Autoway to help us?

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  196. The expected analysis favoring the Phillies. Hard not to like this trade with the key being two more years of control.

    Blanton is going to give the Phillies 33 starts at a below-market rate and that’s really what you are asking for from your farm system if you expect to stay competitive these days without spending $200 million.

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  197. Who says Happ and Carrasco are blocked?

    I’m not ready to give Myers the entire 2nd half, are any of you? If he goes back to his old ways should we keep him in the rotation yet again?

    How old is Jamie Moyer? Love watching him, but can he break down? Will he even pitch next year?

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  200. I think Donald Trump should fire his rear-end!,NOBODY TRADES A GOOD PROSPECT AND GETS AWAY WITH IT!!!!

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  201. If Pat Gillick’s gonna retire,He will soon realize he made a real big mistake and doomed the threshers 2008 season!

    That is if Mitchell,Bolt,Or Mattair won’t volunteer to help!

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  202. Does everybody not remember what happened with Mike Eylward?,I’m afraid of a retred coming in clearwater!

    I pray we call up a d**n good blueclaw infielder and a d**n good blueclaw outfielder!

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  203. I agree that the Phillies offense will clearly help Blanton’s win/loss numbers, but obviously it doesn’t have a direct affect on his pitching outside an ancillary psych boost. Plus, offense is a constant in the Phils equation and would improve any pitchers win/loss numbers as opposed to just Blanton. Are you happy with the trade if Blanton puts up a 4.5 – 5.0 ERA but wins 14 games? Couldn’t we have acquired someone else for less value to give us the same ERA and get the same boost from the offense?

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  204. Haha, it’s funny. The comment section on here is longer than the actual post…

    I haven’t read more than 20 of the comments on here, so I don’t know if anyone else has said this, but I like Blanton. I think he is a decent pitcher (though not the frontline guy I was hoping they’d go after). I also think we may have given up a little too much for him.

    Sort of related, anybody ever heard of the “Gillick Curse”, or whatever people call it? Every single franchise he’s over seen has made the playoffs in his last year under contract, and then SUCKED the year after he left. I think this is a foreshadowing of that. Look out below!

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  205. Although I admit to …ALWAYS… being overly excited by our prospects and preferring youth potential vs. known average performance at the major league level, it has still taken me all these hours to be able to write a comment.

    Last year, I had Cardenas & Outman rated as my 1 & 2 (favorite) prospects playing at the top 3 minor league levels. Although I now believe that Marson is #1 (based on his performance over the past 12 months; in conjunction with, Ruiz’s & Jaramillo’s lack thereof) I still feel that this was a “BAD” trade. I also believe that it was partially motivated by money and the need for management to say: “We did something!”.

    Myers will be back as a starter (at least until he proves one way or another that he can or can not succeed) and Happ should have been given a chance, BEFORE pulling the trigger on a trade for a questionable upgrade, especially at this cost.

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  206. In the grand scheme of things this question is near the bottom in terms of importance, but …

    Any word yet on what moves will new be made in the minor league system as far as players moving to replace the players lost in the trade?

    The Threshers now have NO reserve infielders OR outfielders on their roster.

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  208. I could see them being aggressive and promoting Brown to Clearwater and Susdorf to Lakewood, but I think they’re going to have to sign the reserve IF, Lakewood doesn’t have any IF guys who look like they could handle A+ at all.

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  210. James,

    Please comment on Myers/Hamels road-home numbers. You wanted statistical evidence to discuss.

    Let’s discuss!

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  211. Lakewood would definitely need an OF if Brown got promoted, but Myers can’t even get his average up to .250 in SS, so I don’t think they’ll promote him, and if they do, I think it’ll be a mistake.

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  212. Personally, I have always been somewhat peeved by the snarky comments about the Bank and the suggestion it is the reason the Phils have such a prodigious offense. Many, if not most, of their offensive numbers seem to be the same home and road last year and this.

    Rollins won the MVP and actually hit better on the road. I looked at it last year at one point and again this year and the Phils home and road scoring was the same.

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  215. What I keep coming back to is that the Phillies thought Cardenas had less value because they already had Utley at 2B. This is the type of one dimensional thinking that always kills the Phillies. They back themselves into corners and styles of thinking where they diminish their own options.

    Trading Cardenas and valuing Cardenas should be two independent decisions. I actually think the decision to trade Cardenas is very good. He is having a good year at a young age, so his prospect value is high. He has also been good enough at 2B to suggest he should stay there. Given Utley at 2B (and no, I do not want to move him to 1B until he gets old and can’t handle 2B), the decision to trade Cardenas is sound. Frankly we could also trade a catcher like D’Arnaud if we feel good about Marson.

    That does not change Cardenas’ value to another team, however. I think the Phillies went into this with the mindset that it was OK to trade Cardenas because they had Utley. The proper mindset should have been to get the best pitcher they could for him.

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  216. Cardenas’ value to other teams and his value to the Phils are two separate things.

    The Phils had the best of both worlds here with a player highly valued by other teams and one that was a luxury to the Phils as a trade chip.

    I have known as expected for a year now that Cardenas would be traded. He simply does not project to another position. He hits .285 with 15 HRs as a second basemen and you love him. Move him to LF or 1B and that production isn’t league average.

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  217. I hear you, andyb. Remember when the Phillies traded Ryne Sandberg because they already had a stud second base prospect named Juan Samuel?

    Trading Cardenas isn’t a bad move per se–it’s just making sure that you get the best value for him.

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  218. For those saying Cardenas is a “one tool player”, don’t 20 year old guys generally develop a lot more power? And isn’t he 16 for 16 in SB attempts? And like others have said, it’s not trading him that bothers me, it’s trading him for someone who doesn’t represent a clear upgrade. If Blanton were already on the Phillies, the talk would be about sending him down to AAA to get him straightened out. Instead, since he’s not, we traded one of our top prospects for him.

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  219. Could he develop power? Yes. Will he? 4 HR as a 20 year old in a HR park isn’t lighting it up, but he seems to have very good gap power. Utley always showed 20 HR power in college and the minors, and when he hit 25, he went from a 20 HR guy to a 30 HR guy. Cardenas hasn’t shown any real HR power at all. Could he eventually be a 20/20 guy? Possibly.

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  220. Clearwater is a pretty neutral home run park. In 2007 it had a factor of 1.10 and in 2006 it was 0.95. While it does not have the largest dimensions, the ball does not carry as well with the humidity. Overall the league is a pitcher’s league as well. His 4 HR does bother me at all given the small sample size, his doubles and triples power, and raw tools. Most scouts feel he projects to mid-range power (15-20 HR) which would be above average for a 2B (below average for an OF).

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  221. No disrespect intended but Chase did not demonstrate much power his first 3 years in the minors but like Cardenas he was working hard all the time on improvement in all areas. Cardenas has good tools and is always working on improvement. He is a baseball player and I will take a poor man’s Chase Utley on my team any day.

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  222. Utley spent only two full years in the minors and hit 16 and 17 HRs. Cardenas has 15 HR total in his minor league career.

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  223. I’m mad on several fronts…
    1. We paid waaay to much for Blanton.
    2. You wont have a future unless you prepare for one. Gillick gave away a good chunk of the future for something that won’t help today. I’d rather see them start Outman or carrasco than Blanton.
    3. Give up AC???? Ok, he’s not the next coming of Ryne Sandberg. But, maybe now that he’s in an organization that actually DEVELOPS players… Maybe he will be another Sandberg.
    4. You can’t develop minor league talent on a team that sucks. (See #3) With Matt and Sandberg gone… That sucking sound coming from Florida is not another sinkhole. (BTW, that’s a great atmosphere they’ve created in Reading by pulling Outman from a team depleted by Team USA.) How’s that help the development of guys like Naylor and Savery if they don’t have a team behind them when they pitch. Guys like Gus Milner will get pitched around. Where’s his quality AB’s coming from. The Phillies just shut down the player development at the class A level for the remainder of the year. That’s a high price to pay for a 5-12 pitcher with an ERA around 5.00.
    BTW… How good is Blanton with the best defensive tem in baseball behind him. And a contending team as well. But, he’s 5-12 AND an ERA of 5.00????

    Way to go Pat!

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  225. In fairness Chase and Cardenas both played about 40 games their first year in the minors with both producing 2 homers. Obviously Cardenas has played only one full season but you need to watch him a few times to see that he can play. He would have just completed his sophmore year in college had he gone that route.
    I don’t expect he will become Chase but I am making the point that we have very little to show for most of our trades and unless we feel our coaching will straighten Blanton out we have way overpaid.
    I doubt that most pundits in the media have watched Outman or Cardenas. I have and I live ,eat and breathe the Phillies.

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  226. It’s important to not that Cardenas in much younger than Chase was at this level of the minors. That’s the key point when evaluating power potential.

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  227. Here’s some interesting thoughts to consider:

    2004: We trade for Corey Lidle, who has a 7-10 record. Phils fans boo while Lidle goes 5-2 the rest of that season.

    2006: We trade for Jaime Moyer, who has a 6-12 record. Phils fans boo while Moyer goes 5-2 the rest of that season.

    2007: We trade for Kyle Lohse, who has a 6-12 record. Phils fans boo while Lohse goes 3-0 the rest of that season.

    2008: We trade for Joe Blanton, who has a 5-12 record. Phils fans boo while Blanton goes…

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  228. 3. Give up AC???? Ok, he’s not the next coming of Ryne Sandberg. But, maybe now that he’s in an organization that actually DEVELOPS players… Maybe he will be another Sandberg.

    yeah i guess developing home grown back to back mvps(with the possibility of a 3rd in a row) isnt very good..my bad for thinking it was somewhat decent..oh yeah and a clear future cy young candidate as well

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  229. In his age 20 season, which was his first year playing at UCLA, Utley hit 16 HR with a metal bat, and at 21, 22 HR with a metal bat. I don’t think 4 HR in 255 ABs becomes 16 HR in 271 ABs, even with a metal bat.

    That being said, I do think Cardenas has more speed than Utley.

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  230. i am certainly no expert, but I wonder if it is fair to compare KK’s W/L record to that of Blanton or Hamels simply because it assumes that on any given day KK starts, the Phils offense faces a pitcher of the same caliber that they do when Blanton, Myers or Hamels starts.

    Blanton was the opening day starter, and I assume was a top 1 or 2 guy throughout the year (duscherer must have replaced at some point), so when he pitched his team faced beckett, bedard/hernandez, ervin santana, padilla (kidding), and other top of the rotation guys. KK draws the opposing team’s #4 starter right? sometimes even #5…and the phils offense is much more likely to tee off on a guy like jo jo reyes than tim redding right? i could be wrong, but i would like one of the regulars to break that down for me.

    also, what of the comments made by espn, they like blanton as a groundball pitcher (fantasy writer, so maybe this means nothing):

    On the other hand, Blanton will face weaker lineups and no DH in the NL. Overall, I give Blanton a small fantasy bump, because the scariest part of pitching at Citizens Bank tends to be the home run potential — it was the homer-friendliest park in ’07 — and Blanton is a groundball pitcher. He had a groundball-to-flyball ratio of 1.44 last season, 19th-best among starters. Even during his rough 2008, he stands at 1.38, in the top 40. Finally, Blanton has pitched well in two career starts against the Mets: zero runs allowed, 10 strikeouts, one walk and a .157 BAA.

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  231. EZ E…

    Utley, Rollins and Howard aren’t the product of a system that develops their players. They were drafted and as with other Phillies players… given an opportunity to sink or swim. Some organizations work with their players and help them develop their skills. Others organizations draft, then let the cream rise to the top. That’s the Phillies way.

    It’s just like two types of bloggers. One type actually has thoughts and tries to make a point. The other just opens their mouth and sounds off without a thought or making a point. BTW EZ E… What point were you trying to make?

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  232. ohhh so you give the Phis 0 credit in the development of their stars…thats right utley and howard were #1 overall choices i forgot…my point is nobody gives any credit for what they have done successfully but hammer the hell out of them for the negative results…For a sight dedicated to “fans” of the Phils it seems that a vast majority look for reasons to bash their so called beloved team and never give credit where its due…get the point?

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  233. i just find it convenient for you to discount the Phils part in developing their stars and basically saying they got “lucky” with rollins, utley and howard to help validate ur point..and im sorry are you at all of the Phils spring training sites to actually see that they dont work to develop players or teach baseball, if you are then i apologize but my guess is you are not…So not really sure how u can say concretely , that they dont “work to develop their players”

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  234. In case some of you missed this from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports:

    “The Blanton trade had barely been announced when teams started calling the A’s on Adrian Cardenas, the second baseman they acquired from the Phillies. Cardenas, 20, is a Carlos Baerga-type offensive player whose long-term position is in question. The A’s could move him to third if they re-sign Mark Ellis or project Weeks as their long-term second baseman . . . ”

    It appears that Cardenas was on many teams wish list!

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  235. It is hard for me to believe the story on fox sports. I am one of the biggest fan of cardenas.But if teams were so interested in him why didn’t they make offers. You can’t tell me there wasn’t better starters out there than blanton.

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  238. I want to start by saying stumbling across this site is in the internet version of “best thing since sliced bread”..PP is my hero for his dedication and knowledge and i read religiously…However, id be very interested for the blanton naysayers to show me some alternatives to this trade…What could we have gotten and given up?holiday and fuentes or CC and given up EVERY big name prospect that we drool over in the box scores daily…Bedard/harden one on DL one who spends more time there than not?Everyone keeps saying trade our prospects for aces, where and who were they???i didnt see anymore available…I understand saying well we could have waited and gotten more for cardenas, agrred, but when?next year?I for one am glad the days of us being constant SELLERS at the deadline are over and are in a position to be buyers are here..Im not a big fan of blanton, but im on board with it since i didnt see much hope for much better(without giving up every prospect in the farm for CC)…Lastly, i dont know the peripherals like many here, but was cardenas truly tearing up A ball???304 4hrs 23 rbi?like i said im not being sarcastic, i truly dont know the hidden numbers like most do here

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  239. read the statement carefully guys before you jump to conclusions…i am sure GMs are calling the As, but the key is what they are offering. i am sure that all teams would want Cardenas, but the key is what they would give in return. GMs are savvy enough to realize the concept of buy low, so i don’t buy the idea that they didn’t inquire because they didn’t think that the phillies would move him. that doesn’t make sense at all. The phils have had many conversations with GM’s across baseball. it was very well known they wanted a starter. they talked about all of their minor leaguers. cardenas was in the futures game last year for crying out loud. he is also listed as the top phils prospect in BA. it wasn’t exactly like he was under the radar. if GMs really wanted cardenas for anything of value they would have made the offer. i like the guy too, but i think that you guys are over valuing him. gillick is a very savvy GM. he has won everywhere he has been.

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  240. I have mixed feelings on the deal.
    The Pros–
    The Phils needed a starter now, and Blanton’s a better pitcher than Eaton. That much is tough to argue with. How much better he is remains to be seen. Blanton’s issues with inconsistency are much more important than the H/R splits. He’s shown he can be a good pitcher on the road against good teams, but he’s got to do it more consistently. Hopefully, a playoff race will help him focus each time he gets the nod. Having seen him throw two or three times, he does seem like a gamer. I think his personality will play well in this town.

    Also, if you check out the good, independent baseball blogs out there, a lot more people like this trade for the Phils than don’t.

    The Cons:
    That other stuff being said, I would have rather made a riskier move for a starter. I know it’s not the Phillies way, but we really need a no. 2 starter, and Blanton clearly isn’t it. Looking at how little it took to pry Harden away, I wish they’d been a little more proactive there. Burnett’s another guy who’s really struggled with consistency, but he’s got top-of-the-rotation stuff, and could dominate for 3 months for a contending team.

    Cardenas is far from a sure thing, but I’m sure the Red Sox were thinking the same thing about Hanley Ramirez, when he was blocked when the Sox signed Renteria as a free agent. A lot changes fast in baseball, and the term “blocked” doesn’t mean a thing until a guy is absolutely ready for the show. Given the dearth of middle-infield prospects, the Phils should have been able to leverage Cardenas a little better–even if it meant making the trade a 1 for 1 deal or getting some kind of younger prospect in return.

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  241. Craig. Ramirez was five tool prospect .You can’t compare those two players. This was my point the other day florida trade a stud pitcher,but got a all star in return.

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  242. To me, its done and dusted. I think the Phillies gave up too much by including Outman in this deal. That’s my take on it. Blanton could come in, pitch really well, and then the deal works for both clubs. Or he pitches well, Cardenas and Outman bomb, and the deal is a massive win for us. Or Blanton could suck, Cardenas could become Ryne Sandberg, and its the worst deal ever.

    As I said, I hope Blanton lights the world on fire, and I wish our prospects the best. You can really only judge deals like this with your initial thoughts. No one knows how the players values will change, there is plenty of luck and variance in the game of baseball. I suggest we all just move on, focus on what Blanton brings to the table, and wish our 3 former prospects best of luck in Oakland.

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  245. yeah seems interesting..not much to be found on him cept he was 3rd team all america as a soph..i do give the phils credit for seemingly scouting some obscure (schools or lack of school) talent

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  246. Phils were close, are close?, to a Victorino/Happ/Carrasco/Marson for Holliday-Fuentes deal?

    This place will blow up if that happens.

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  248. rocky,

    latest is that its been scaled down to just being about Fuentes, but just about every ML team is in on him. Sad considering he’d be about our 4th -5th best reliever right now behind Lidge, Durbin, Romero, Madson.

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  249. That trade is dead. But if made, I actually really wouldn’t have a problem with it. Sure, I’d have to shut this site down, but at least we’d be adding a superstar type player.

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  256. why no outcry that happ is getting screwed. do people think that myers soaked his arm at lourdes. once again charlie shows his true colors by laughingly telling that after the all star break happ will be right back. just like he did by pitching myers everday last year until his arm fell off. happ is miles ahead of carrasco and he will be back when myers is moved back to the pen or traded.

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  257. Happ is not being screwed. This, like all teams, needs six starters. Due to his service time and ‘options’ he is number six. I’m not jinxing anyone by saying that he will be back up at some point this year to make another start, it’s just the odds. He’ll be taking Moyer’s rotation spot next year.

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  259. I know I’m way late to the game, but I want to counter a few things said about Cardenas that are just laughable.

    He is not a one-tool player. I don’t know about arm strength, but he has been a solid defender, is 16-for-16 in SB, and has 21 EBH in a half season at age 20!

    He is just a solid to excellent player at every phase of the game, and, again, is 20.

    When our Lord and Saviour Marson was 20, he posted a 694 OPS in Lakewood. Golson a 651 OPS at two A-Ball stops. Hell, at 20 Utley was still in college, and two years away from posting a 734 OPS in Clearwater.

    The hysteria-level reaction is just, IMO. Cardenas projects as a good everyday 2B at worst, and a 5-7 time all-star at best. That is certainly not worth the very modest (if any) upgrade from Happ to Blanton.

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  260. padriac – one of the most common mistakes is to over value a prospect and give him a “tool” when he really doesn’t project to have that tool at the MLB level.
    – Cardenas does NOT have the speed tool, even though he is 16 for 16 in SBs in the majors. a guy that has the speed tool is quintin berry or michael bourne. that guy projects as an mlb speedster. cardenas is a big step below those guys and thus doesn’t have that as a tool.
    – cardenas does NOT project to have the power tool either. a guy like rick ankiel or ryan howard has that tool. hitting some doubles doesn’t mean you have the power tool.
    – and he certainly doesn’t have the arm or defense tool. everyone agrees that he doesn’t have a real position and can’t switch to 3b because of his arm.

    look – i like the guy and think that he has a real shot to be a solid mlb player. just that he isn’t more than a 1 tool guy.

    this is actually an intersting post on the 5-tools

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five-tool_player

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  261. Pete Rose at age 20 had no tools as defined here. Adrian is a baseball player and Blanton better be solid or like many here I will be ticked.
    As a life long fan I like to watch players develop and play here. Looking at our team I would say most of our solid everyday players have played all their major league career here.
    Sometimes a key acquisition puts you over the top but I don’t think this is it.

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  262. His 16-16 is misleading. He’s been clocked at 7.1 to first, which is actually a tick below average. He’s getting SBs with instincts and bad catchers, not speed. He might be a 10 SB a year guy in the majors, but that’s about his max, and he’s only likely to get slower as he fills out a bit more. And I don’t buy into the whole “he’s only 20 so he still can develop 20 HR power” argument. Can he? Certainly. But nothing he’s done to date as made me think he’s suddenly going to turn into one, even with age. He really is a 1 tool guy (contact).

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  263. Ducky, I think you’re being argumentative for the sake of it. Why would you assume “filling out” would hurt his speed but not help his power?

    And as far as the “speed” tool, for me the tool is “speed + baserunning.” I doubt Scott Rolen or David Wright clock in real well, but they are assets on the basepaths. I don’t care whether Cardenas is 16-16 because he has well developed calf muscles or because he is an intelligent player: either way he gets the job done.

    I think PP fan sets the standard for “tool” a bit high too, where you have to have either the speed of Bourn or the power of Ryan Howard. Hell, Howard is basically a one-tool player and that hasn’t kept him from being a way above average mlb player. The point is about overall contributions to a team, not numbers from a workout session.

    In actual baseball games, as opposed to controlled workout sessions in shorts, it’s absurd to say Cardenas only has one tool.

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  264. There are two ways to evaluate tools; tools overall and tools relative to position. The power tool is one of those. If a guy has 20 HR power, his raw power tool is probably a 55 or 60. If he’s a 2B, 20 HR power makes him more like a 65 or even close to a 70 because of the typical power level of most 2B. Conversely, a corner OF with 15 HR power might be a 40-45 raw power guy, because the threshold is much higher.

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  265. “Ducky, I think you’re being argumentative for the sake of it.”

    Oh the irony of this statement.

    Anyway, I think he may pick up an extra 5-7 HRs as he fills out. That still puts him in the 10-15 HR range. And I don’t think you get 30 SB in a season without being at least a good runner.

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  267. “And I don’t think you get 30 SB in a season without being at least a good runner.”

    Oh, the irony of this statement.

    Couldn’t have said it better myself: you evaluate the tool from the production, not vice versa.

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  268. That’s not what I said at all -_-

    Well, actually it kinda is, but I was unclear. I don’t think you can evaluate a player or tool in a vacuum. Wright is a good runner who’s consistently stolen around 20 bases a year and managed to steal 34 last year (man, I didn’t realize how much of an outlier that was for him until I just looked up his career stats). Cardenas has 16 SB but is by all accounts a below average runner who just has good instincts. Instincts will only get you so far in the majors.

    And if you want to just look at the production, Cardenas’ HR numbers say he’s a 10 HR hitter max. I think he’ll end up in the 10-12 range, maybe with a career high in the 15-17 range if/when he gets to the majors.

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  269. I think I may lock the comments on this post in a day or two, as its just going to continue to go in a circle.

    Tools are not graded based on production. Scouts give 2 tool ratings; current and projected, and they are very different. Cardenas’ power tool might be a 40 now, projected at a 55 with the expectation that he’ll fill out. Those tools are graded based on a player’s age, his current body type, family history, and things of that nature. People don’t look at high school numbers and give a guy a 70 power grade because he hit 12 HR in 100 high school ABs.

    Blanton starts tonight, I’m sure people will have things to say about the start, even though its kind of meaningless, since its one start, but we’re moving on tomorrow.

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  270. Sorry PP if I’m just rehashing stuff from earlier in the comments, but I didn’t see the 1-tool thing challenged much. I also had been away from the internets for a week without being able to vent.

    I agree it’s pretty much all the angles have been covered, and we’ll just see what Blanton and Cardenas do with their respective tools.

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  271. I think the other think lost with Cardenas is that he probably grades out in the 50 range on his bad tools. His average power is pretty good for 2B. He can probably be an average 2B defensively. And his average speed is helped by him being a pretty good baserunner. If a player has across the board average tools coupled with one ++ tool (hitting for average) the result is a pretty good major leaguer.

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  273. I have a comparison to ask about Cardenas. How about Howie Hendrick? Kendrick is also a high average guy with about 10+ HR power and 10+ SB ability. I’m not sure how their defense compares and he plays 2B, so the arm is probably not that great either. Is Cardenas’ ceiling around what Kendrick could be doing? That’s pretty good, I’d say.

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  274. I would be amazed if Cardenas didn’t develop more than 10 HR power. I see him 20 – 25 HR as he gets to age 25-26.

    Blanton pitched about as badly as his road stats suggested. I still think Happ in the rotation is better than Blanton. Still not happy with the trade. But then, I like Outman better than many folks do and think he could have been in our 2009 rotation. Probably doing better than Blanton.

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  275. Jake on July 18th puts way too much value on W-L records. This is practically a meaningless stat in evaluating pitchers. How about WHIP, oba, K/9 or even that old standby ERA, preferably with an adjustment for defense and park factor. You seem to want to say that Phillies fans whine about trades for pitchers, but I don’t recall the negative reaction that you do to Lohse or Moyer. And the Blanton deal involves giving up way more than any of the 3 trades you reference.

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  277. I didn’t think Blanton pitched all that bad. Delgado should have been wrung up on the check swing before the home run. The pitch to Castro was awful but otherwise a solid debut after not pitching for 2 weeks and throwing to a new catcher.

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