Monday notes

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Just a few notes today to give you something to think about.

* Josh Outman, after a rough transition to the bullpen, seems to be getting things on track. Over his last 10 games he’s put up this line;

17.0 IP — 1.59 ERA — 12 H — 5 BB — 9 K

I still disagree with the decision to move him to the pen, but at this point, it has to soon be time to bring him up and get his feet wet. If the goal was to have him available for the stretch drive, its better that he gets into games now instead of being thrown into the fire in September.

* The news hasn’t been so good for the recently promoted guys from Lakewood to Clearwater;

Taylor: .186/.230/.271 — 14 K — 3 BB — 3 2B — 1 HR
Naylor: 21.1 IP — 7.59 ERA — 22 H — 18 BB — 16 K

Some adjustments will obviously have to be made. The Florida State League is one of the best pitcher’s leagues in the minors, which helps to explain Taylor’s struggles, but Naylor has really hit the wall. The most concerning aspect of his line is obviously the walks. He’ll need to make adjustments, and there’s plenty of time, but not the best start.

* Rob Roth deserves a mention here. Roth missed all of 2007 with an arm injury, but he’s healthy again, and despite his peripherals lagging, he’s getting results;

34.1 IP — 1.05 ERA — 17 H — 8 BB — 15 K

He’s not getting many groundballs and not missing many bats, but he’s keeping the ball off the middle of the bat. While the ERA is nice, its better to see he’s healthy, as he does have potential and is a very real prospect. I suspect the ERA will rise, but I think the peripherals will improve as well.

* Supplemental pick Zach Collier is off to a flying start in the GCL, posting a line of .364/.439/.485 in 33 AB. On my Top 30 sheet, I remarked that D’Arby Myers was a cautionary tale here, as Myers came out of the gates strong in the GCL, but has taken steps back the last two years. But the more I watch Collier’s numbers come in, the more convinced I am that it might not be a similar situation. Myers drew a total of 7 walks in 128 AB in the GCL in his debut season at age 17. Collier already has 6 BB in 33 AB, which is showing in his OB%. Myers had 10 XBH in his 40 total hits in his debut, while Collier has 4 XBH (all 2B) out of his 12 total hits so far. So Collier’s rates are ahead of Myers at this point. The big key will continue to be the walks and plate discipline. Myers was considered very raw coming out of high school, and while Collier was also raw to a degree, he also had a bit more polish than most 17 year olds. It will be interesting to see where his line ends up at the end of the year, but so far so good.

42 thoughts on “Monday notes”

  1. I am becoming a fan of Collier as well. The plate discipline combined with the raw power is a good sign. I wish we had a high ceiling pitcher to go with Collier among our top 2 picks, but at least Collier has had a nice start. Gose has only had an OK start, but at least we know there might be a fallback plan with him and pitching.

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  2. Well, to be fair, Knapp is the high ceiling arm. I think everyone was skeptical enough on Hewitt that its going to be tough to really be disappointed if he doesn’t pan out. So far, the Phillies have signed a number of their high school guys and are taking chances to ensure that even if Hewitt flops they can save value from this draft.

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  3. Roth’s BABIP is .163 right now, so while he’s due for a regression, but it’s certainly good to see him healthy and pitching well. Justin de Fratus, on the other hand, has very good peripherals (24:4 K:BB in 23.2 IP and a current BABIP of .306) and should be able to sustain his success. Overall, a pretty good 1-2 punch in Williamsport right now.

    Re: Collier, each day I check the GCL box score hoping he’s drawn a walk or two. And the weird thing with Gose is that while I’m not necessarily wishing he fails as an outfielder, I’m not at all disappointed if he eventually finds out he’s not cut out for the position. I mean, which would you rather have: an outfielder with the upside of Juan Pierre, or a pitcher with the upside of Billy Wagner?

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  5. Hey Jeff: any word in the Clearwater area about the Phils negotiating with Ryan Weber, the 12th round pick?

    (Sorry, I’ll stop my flurry of posts now).

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  6. going to some blueclaws games later this month so hopefully we can see Roth if he gets a call up. If not maybe Sampson although he has struggled a bit lately and his WHIP is an Eaton-esque 1.64

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  7. I find the Crosscutters closers interesting: Schwimer: IP 14.2; 30 K’s and Rosenberg: IP 11; 20 K’s. Schwimer has the second most strike outs in the NY-Penn even as a closer and one off the league lead.

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  8. Has anyone noticed TJ Warren at Lakewood? Since D. Myers was sent out, he’s been hitting. I was concerned that having both Myers and Warren split time in the OF was holding both of them back. D’Arby’s not showing much consistency yet. Warren’s batting .433 in his last 10 games. They were also leading him off before and now they’ve dropped him to the end of the order. Maybe that’s taking some pressure off.

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  9. Schwimer and Rosenberg are interesting, but both guys are real old for the league and both need to be moved aggressively next year. Both guys are middle relievers in a perfect world, so the sooner they face good competition the better.

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  10. Opinion wanted: Who plays 3B next year at Clearwater? Too much a jump for Overbeck and Mattair might not be able to handle that jump in class hitting-wise.

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  11. Its an interesting question. Overbeck is 22, he’s probably going to be more equipped to make the jump, and honestly, I think it has to be either him or Mattair. If you just move Overbeck to Lakewood and Mattair repeats, its going to stunt his development to not play every day.

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  12. On Outman, I agree with your disagreement on moving him to the Pen. He could be a starter in the majors and it seems a waste to have him as a lefty arm in the Pen.

    On the Crosscutters, I’m looking forward to getting a closer look at them this week when they come to town.

    On Savery, I get the feeling that he may finish the season very strong and end up with a very respectable line.

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  13. I seem to recall reading on Draft Day that Overbeck might be better served as a 2b. What about double jumping Overbeck to Clearwater and moving him to 2B?

    I think that Mattair will move up to Clearwater – he’s not doing overly well, but he’s been keeping his head above water, and seems to get a fair amount of his hits in clutch situations. Fielding-wise, he has a fair amount of errors, but if what I saw last week is any indication (He was given a fielding error on a ball that he ranged 15-20 feet to his left. It was impressive that he could even get to the ball, and I doubt he would’ve thrown the guy out anyway), the error totals are partially due to the fact that he gets to so many balls.

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  14. phuturephillies. Do you think if savery keeps on pitching like he has lately, That a promotion next month to reading is in his future.?

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  16. Is Antonio Bastardo a legitimate prospect or just a junk baller who induces inexperienced hitters to swing at bad pitches?

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  19. I think Savery stays the whole season. They already double jumped him over Lakewood. If he’d have dominated from Day 1, maybe, but hes getting into a groove, let him be for now.

    Bastardo is a fastball/changeup guy. 87-90 on the fastball. A rich man’s Fabio Castro, I think.

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  22. I don’t see any way that Mattair gets moved up. They challenged him to a full seaosn league and he’s hung in there but he certainly hasn’t figured out to turn on a ball yet. This is a big stroing kid from Washington that needs to play and gain some confidence. I’m sure he’ll repeat Lakewood with the hope that he’ll improve and force them to move him up mid year. With that said, I guess they have to move Overbeck to Clearwater if he stays at 3B.

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  23. Should Savery continue his superior pitching [note that in addition to his excellent #s yesterday, he completed 8 innings], he should be moved up to Reading…IMO.

    That kind of pitching shows me that his skills are coming together and he could just as well pitch at Reading as at Clrwtr.

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  25. considering eaton’s violent implosion in the last month or so…why dont the phils give carrasco a shot at it before we burn prospects and $$$ on a mediocre croaker like burnett?? i know it has to do with service time, options, etc. but it would be much cheaper to pay carrasco mlb money first than to spend 5 mill on burnett over the rest of the year.

    a PS to that…i wasnt plugged in to this site til about a month or so ago. i was curious what about kendrick pitching in AA last year gave the phils the confidence to jump him over AAA. were they simply that desperate?

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  26. Murray –

    That sounds pretty reasonable with regards to Mattair. I was trying to figure out the best way the Phils could handle Overbeck/Mattair next year. Overbeck (three more rbis yesterday!) would be way too old to play at Lakewood, so bumping him up to Clearwater, and repeating Mattair at Lakewood seems logical. Should both do pretty well, then they can both be moved up midway.

    Art D –

    I’d be content to see Savery stay at Clearwater, unless he throws out 4-5 more starts just like his last two, and thus basically forces a promotion

    – Jeff

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  27. a PS to that…i wasnt plugged in to this site til about a month or so ago. i was curious what about kendrick pitching in AA last year gave the phils the confidence to jump him over AAA. were they simply that desperate?

    Yeah, it was basically a “we need someone to start today”, they brought him up, he pitched well, he took another turn, and the rest was history. I want to say it was when Freddy Garcia went on the DL? But my memory is kind of foggy at this point.

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  28. Governator: I can’t speak for everyone, but my reservations with putting Carrasco in the rotation have less to do with service time and options, and more to do with the fact that I don’t think he’s ready to pitch in the majors yet. I look at Homer Bailey — and while I know it’s not quite this simple, I think of him as a guy who was rushed to the majors before he was ready, and the results have been pretty uniformly disastrous (he’s even struggled to a 4.42 ERA in AAA this year).

    As for Kendrick… yeah, they were that desperate. Kendrick was simply the hottest pitcher in the minors when the Phils needed a spot start, and he pitched so well that they pretty much had no choice but to leave him in the rotation. Pretty incredible when you think about it.

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  29. phuturephillies,

    you’re correct. It was when Freddy Garcia went down (his last start was a doomed one against KC) and also around the time Jon Lieber “SLIPPED” off the mound and hurt his foot. If the starting pitching wasn’t so sad last year that would have been funny.

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  30. so who wants to grease up the mound next time Eaton’s set to start so we can get Happ back or Carrasco up to the ML?

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  33. ‘Utley’s Hair’

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    …but seriously, Carrasco needs to be given a shot before they blow up a farm system finally turning around for a mediocre starter. I don’t recall any other decent starters that might be hitting the market so I’d rather they stand pat and have Carrasco, Marson, Donald and Bastardo (in the bullpen) ready to contribute next year.

    If you can get Burnett for Golson and a A-/A+ starter, go for it, if not don’t mortgage the immediate future.

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  35. im here in jersey and mike and the dog just had lidge on for an interview..I know it flew under the radar a bit but im really glad to have him for another 3 years the man been our mvp IMO..really great interview as well

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  36. As for Bastardo, I saw him pitch a while ago against Trenton (the night he had a no-hitter and was removed after 6 inn) and he does look and pitch like Castro. Before I saw him I read that he was fooling FSL hitters with his change-up, what I saw was a guy getting K’s with high heat against a good Trenton line-up. I was impressed, with the exception that he threw a lot of pitches, the reason he was lifted even with a no-hitter.

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  39. As has been shown by history, that is a clear indicator that another 8 shutout innings from Savery are forthcoming.

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  40. if bastardo is in the same range as castro good luck. castro unless he has been reborn has shown that he is a one pitch pitcher and in my opinion will never make the bigs. i hope bastardo is nothing like castro. as i said the best young arm i have seen is easily happ. to compete the phils have to deal. i still maintain blanton is quality.

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  41. Williamsport must be fun to watch. I look up their box score 1st everyday. Doubleheader win yesterday. Stutes pitched 5 innings of 2h ball, 9Ks and is sporting a 1.71 ERA through 5 outings. Schwimer and Rosenberg (James mentioned them the other day and I’m paying attention) are twin closers. Schwimer has 32Ks in 15 innings. Rosenberg has 22Ks in 12 innings. Roth has been a eyeshade short of incredible. Susdorf has 10 RBIs in 5 games. He has 3 dbls and 2 HRs in his 7 hits. D’Arnaud continues to be a class catcher. It might not be too long before we’re gushing over him like we do Marson. DeFratus, Overbeck and a few other guys also deserve a lot of press. It’s early in their careers and their year but they bear watching.

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