The draft is a week away

Wow. It really kind of crept up I suppose, but the draft starts next Thursday at 2PM, and the first round + comp round will be shown on ESPN2 I do believe. I’ve posted two mock drafts, and I suppose I’ll churn out one more next Wednesday, trying to incorporate the murmurs on what teams are thinking. There’s lots of smoke and little fire at this point, and I trust the track record of teams more than the latest buzz, and those track records are what I built my last mock draft on, so not much is likely to change, but I will make a few adjustments. I’m going to devote this post to the first round and the compensation round, and then I’ll look at guys we can possibly grab in the 2nd round on Tuesday before wrapping everything up on Wednesday before the draft. On draft day, I’ll make a draft discussion thread and update it as the day progresses. If you’ve just stumbled onto the site, you can check out everything I’ve written on the 2008 draft by clicking here. You can see my first mock draft here, and my second mock draft here. Now, onto our first 2 picks.

I’ve spent the last few months looking at video of the various prospects available, I’ve looked at college stats and read all the reports from various outlets, and my opinion on who we should take at #24 hasn’t changed from months ago. But lets go through the candidates. Right now, this is what BA’s Top 25 looks like after #9, as we won’t have a chance at any of those guys, even if Hosmer were to slide because of signability.

10. Tanner Scheppers, RHP (Fresno State)
11. Shooter Hunt, RHP (Tulane)
12. Yonder Alonso, 1B (Miami)
13. Aaron Hicks, RHP/OF (Wilson HS, CA)
14. Christian Friedrich, LHP (Eastern Kentucky)
15. Tim Melville, RHP (Holt HS, MO)
16. Ethan Martin, RHP/3B (Stephens County HS, GA)
17. Gerrit Cole, RHP (Lutheran HS, CA)
18. Josh Fields, RHP (UGA)
19. Casey Kelly, RHP/SS (Sarasota HS, FL)
20. Brett Wallace, 3B/1B (Arizona State)
21. Jason Castro, C (Stanford)
22. Zach Collier, OF (Chino Hills HS, CA)
23. Conor Gillaspie, 3B (Wichita State)
24. Andrew Cashner, RHP (TCU)
25. Alex Meyer, RHP (Greensburg HS, IN)

A very eclectic mix here. I posted in detail about Scheppers, and the word still isn’t out on the extent of his injury. He’s a Top 10 talent, but the injury certainly clouds his draft status. I made the case for taking him at 24 here, I’m not 100% confident with it, but right now, I’d lean towards taking him based on what I’ve read about stress fractures. I suspect that the extent of his injury and the long term ramifications will be known before the draft. If he looks like he’s going to fully recover, then I think at 24, where the odds are slightly longer anyway, he represents a great gamble, ala Hamels and Savery. Hunt has been inconsistent, but will still be gone long before us. Ditto on Alonso, Hicks and Friedrich. Melville is interesting. He was considered the best prep RHP in the class before this spring, now he’s sliding down the boards. I suspect that if he is taken in the first round he’ll sign, but if not, he’d probably be better served going to school. He fits the bill for the Phillies in terms of prep pitching, in that he’s tall, projectable, and has a high ceiling. He’s got work to do, but I’d certainly take him over the remaining guys at 24 if I was assured he’d sign. However, I don’t think he’ll make it that far.

Martin is another guy who has jumped up boards, and I’m fairly certain he’ll be long gone. Cole is a Boras client, and if he slides to 24, I doubt he’s signable for us. But I think Detroit is a reasonable landing spot for him, should Hosmer not slide, and it might take Boston or New York (Yankees) going above slot to keep him away from college. Fields is a college senior and Georgia’s closer, I don’t like drafting closers, and I think he’s gone before us anyway. Casey Kelly is an interesting prospect, I mentioned his signability in a previous post, and that still concerns me. It appears he wants to play pro ball, but he also wants to be a QB at Tennessee. So, if he slides to 24, he might go to college, and we can’t afford to waste the pick there. I’ve professed my love for Brett Wallace before. The guy gets knocked for a soft body and for not being a good enough defensive player, but he’s probably the most polished college bat in the draft, has great raw power, and a good eye at the plate. I think theres very little chance he’s there at 24…maybe 3%. If he is, I’d take him over any of the guys discussed, including Scheppers and Melville.

I’m not a big Jason Castro fan, and I think he’d be a reach for us at 24, but I suspect the Mets might take him before us anyway, or he could slide to the comp round. Collier is a toolsy OF and would be intriguing, and I’d much prefer him to Anthony Hewitt, who we’ve also been linked to. Conor Gillaspie is an interesting bat, he can clearly hit, but I don’t think he’ll be staying at 3B, and is more likely a LF. Andrew Cashner is a college reliever, so we’ll just move on there. Finally, we have Alex Meyer, a very raw RHP. As I mentioned with Melville, he’s got the projection going for him, but I don’t really love his delivery as it stands, and I don’t know that I trust the Phillies to “fix” it, in that respect.

My pick a while back was Brett DeVall, LHP (Niceville HS, FL) and I’m sticking with it unless Scheppers is there. BA has him at #33 in the country, and this is his writeup

From Florida, a Team USA Junior Olympic team alum and a participant in the East Cobb League, DeVall has been on the scouting radar for a long time. DeVall was an Aflac All-American in the fall and has distinguished himself this spring as the top pure high school lefthander in this draft. DeVall, at 6-foot-4, has the ideal pitcher’s build and has an advanced understanding of how to pitch. His delivery and arm action are sound as he repeats his mechanics, leading to his plus command of three pitches. The velocity on his fastball typically stays between 88-89 mph but can touch the low 90s. His curveball has the makings of an average pitch at the very least and his changeup is advanced for a high school pitcher. While he has feel for each of his three pitches, none of them is presently labeled as an out pitch. DeVall is projected as a third or fourth starter at the big league level. With the development of a plus breaking ball or an increase in velocity on his fastball, DeVall could be a No. 2 guy in a major league rotation. He is committed to play baseball for Georgia.

I love his delivery, which you can see here. He is very compact, not a lot of wasted movement. He’s already 6’4, 220 lbs, a durable frame, and has consistent velocity and command, based on all of the reports I’ve seen. The BA report doesn’t give him credit for a plus pitch, but he has plus command already, a good commodity for a prep pitcher, and as he matures physically, I think his stuff will improve a tick and become plus across the board. DeVall reminds me a lot of Brett Anderson, the best pitcher the A’s got in the Dan Haren deal. Both guys were seen as pitchability lefties, and while Anderson is struggling a bit this year, I think its largely a function of the hitter haven CAL League and him being only 20. Unlike Anderson, I think DeVall’s stuff is actually going to tick up and he’ll have a bigger fastball to work off of.

Anderson was the #1 ranked prospect in Oklahoma heading into the 2006 draft, and this is what BA said about him

Scouting Report: Anderson’s package doesn’t quite fit together. He’s arguably the most polished pitcher with quality stuff in the draft, no surprise considering his father Frank had long been one of college baseball’s most respected pitching coaches before becoming the head coach at Oklahoma State. Brett locates an 89-91 mph fastball at will, and at times it ranks as his third-best pitch. He has a hard, 78-83 mph curveball that’s a strikeout pitch and an advanced changeup for a teenager. He also has a slower, get-me-over version of his curve. He repeats his delivery and arm slot every time. Anderson has excelled on the international stage, pitching Team USA’s youth and junior teams to silver medals the last two summers. So what’s not to like? Scouts say it’s Anderson’s glaring lack of athleticism. He has a soft, 6-foot-4, 215-pound frame, and he has trouble fielding bunts and covering first base. Some scouts say he has the best command of any high school lefty in recent memory, while others say he may be the worst athlete taken in the first round in years. Nevertheless, he almost certainly will go in the first round.

Sounds similar, no? DeVall is a better athlete, but the other comparisons are there. I think DeVall has a bit more upside, and I think he’d be a great selection. Trying to figure out who to take at 34 is even more challenging, largely because of the number of variables and surprises for the first 33 picks. Here are the 10 guys BA has ranked at 30-40 in their Top 200

30. Ike Davis, 1B/OF (Arizona State)
31. David Cooper, 1B (California)
32. Jake Odorizzi, RHP (Highland HS, IL)
33. DeVall
34. Dennis Raben, OF (Miami)
35. Tyson Ross, RHP (UCLA)
36. Issac Galloway, OF (Los Osos HS, CA)
37. Brett Lawrie, INF (Brookswood SS, British Columbia)
38. Allan Dykstra, 1B (Wake Forest)
39. Wade Miley, LHP (Southeastern Louisiana)
40. Mike Montgomery, LHP (Hart HS, CA)

I don’t really like Davis because of his swing, but hes had a productive career at ASU. I’m a big David Cooper fan, I think theres a good chance of him being there at 34, and I’d take him if he was. Here’s his BA scouting report

Another NorCal product, Cooper began his college career at Cal State Fullerton, helping lead the Titans to the College World Series. He had hits in seven consecutive at-bats in Omaha, earning all-tournament honors, but transferred after the season back closer to home, instantly becoming Cal’s best player. He’s evolved as a hitter since that season, going from two homers as a freshman to a Pacific-10 Conference-best 19 as a junior. Cooper’s hitting ability stems from strong hands and forearms and excellent hand-eye coordination more than pure bat speed, and some scouts believe he’ll be more susceptible in pro ball to big velocity because of it. Others believe his smooth, pure swing will let him catch up to any fastball. He has a polished, patient approach and absolutely mashes mistakes to all parts of the park. Cooper’s value is in his bat; he’s a well-below-average runner who could become a real baseclogger down the line. Defensively, he flashes average ability at first, but some scouts label him disinterested at worst and below-average at best. Cooper’s bat could take him into the first round, though an American League club would be a better fit.

Butcher in the field, masher with the bat. Sounds like our current 1B, doesn’t it? Odorizzi is an intriguing arm, but I think he’s going to go in the late first round. I’m not a big Dennis Raben fan, I see him as a tweener in the majors, but I might be underselling him. Tyson Ross has a really weird delivery, and I can’t see how he’ll avoid major arm problems in the future. Galloway is an interesting toolsy OF, but I wonder if his signability will be a problem, as he was projected as a mid 1st round pick coming into this year. We could do worse than to grab him here if he’ll sign. Lawrie seems to be jumping up draft boards, but I really don’t know much about him. I’d be ok with Dykstra, and I really like Mike Montgomery’s stuff as well.

BA has this to say on Montgomery…

With Anthony Gose battling shoulder tendonitis, Montgomery has emerged as the top high school lefthander in an unusually deep and talented Southern California crop. He’s a Cal State Fullerton recruit who would benefit by studying under coach Dave Serrano, but his strong spring likely means he won’t make it to college. That was despite some makeup questions about the athletic Montgomery, who was kicked off the Hart High basketball team for racking up too many technical fouls. Montgomery was the team’s top scorer at 20 points per game, and at 6-foot-4 and 180 pounds, he has a long, athletic build that attracts scouts. So does his fastball, which sits in the 88-92 mph range and peaks at 94. His high quality secondary offerings include a sharp, if slow, 71-72 mph curveball and a 79-81 mph changeup with sudden late drop. Montgomery will need to correct a series of subtle mechanical deficiencies that tend to impede his command, but when those problems are solved, he profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. He was rising up draft boards as June approached as he showed a feel for pitching, rather than trying to just blow high school hitters way. He does an excellent job of mixing pitches, changing speeds, setting hitters up and finishing them off.

You can see Montgomery’s delivery here though you’ll only get a side angle. You have to think the Phillies wouldn’t take two prep LHP back to back, but I think its safe to say you can never have enough pitching. This draft has a lot of intriguing college bats, and I’d be perfectly happy with Wallace and David Cooper, or an arm and David Cooper, but I wouldn’t be too disappointed to add 2 potential top-middle of the rotation lefties, knowing how rare those commodities are.

So, my preference is to grab Tanner Scheppers at 24, and the fallback plan is Brett Wallace, and then Brett DeVall. At 34, I’d be more than happy with David Cooper, but also wouldn’t mind Jake Odorizzi, Issac Galloway or Mike Montgomery if they are signable.

38 thoughts on “The draft is a week away

  1. I’m not sure taking a signability question mark in the first round is necessarily the wrong move. While getting guys into the system now rather than later is probably better, you’ve acknowledged this to be a weak class. If next year is looking to be a good class, it might not hurt to go after a higher-talent signability issue. I’m assuming it would work out the same as Workman did last year to this year if we don’t get him signed. Not saying it would be the right move, but it seems plausible.

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  2. BA says Scheppers does’t have a stress fracture, but that their not exactly sure how much wear and tear have affected him-
    “Tanner had an MRI with a doctor in Fresno, but there was no bone scan, so there’s no way to know if there was a stress fracture—there has never been a stress fracture,” Genske said. “There may be a bone bruise, but the MRI was clean. Dr. Yocum said there’s some wear and tear in the shoulder, and naturally we’re waiting to see how significant it is when he tells us the results of the examinations.”

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  3. On Tyson Ross: I could almost see Tommy John screaming everytime he threw a pitch. It looks like he puts so much stress on his elbow and arm with that delivery

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  4. Are there any good power arms available with the 24th or 34th picks…we never seem to draft power pitching…its always low 90’s, good control, great projection type guys…

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  5. I hope Wolever and co take the strategy of HS pitching, College hitting, and take the best player available at each spot. College pitchers and HS position players always scare me.

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  6. “Are there any good power arms available with the 24th or 34th picks…”

    Best power arms are relievers. Brett Hunter will still be there, but he’s not up to speed after an injury and apparently has a concerning delivery. But outside of the top 10, thats the only way to get a power arm outside of stumbling onto a high schooler who developes.

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  7. “College hitting, and take the best player available at each spot. College pitchers and HS position players always scare me.”

    I think for the most part when the phils draft position players, they go for athletes, or defensive players moreso then looking for pedigree. Adrian Cardenas was a great pedigree pick- a guy who had the tools and current ability. The A’s have been good pedigree drafters of offensive talent- Sean Doolittle was a good example. In the end its a tossup, because many pedigree guys do well in the minors but don’t ultimately develope as major leaguers (but thats ok, a productive minor leaguer at an appropriate age still has good trade value).

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  8. After you get out of the comp round, all of the “power” arms are going to be signability questions on the prep side. Evaluating signability is one of the most important parts of the draft.

    To me, this draft is real top heavy with a lot of solid guys, but not a lot of guys that make you say “wow, we grabbed him at 24??”, which is why I think gambling on Scheppers is the right play, if hes available. For as critical as I’ve been of the Phillies, they have gotten it right a number of times on calls like this. They got it right with Hamels, who’d have gone in the first 5 picks had he not been hurt. They gambled on D’Arby Myers’ signability and ended up getting him for slot or close to it when most teams thought he wouldn’t sign. Ditto on Dominic Brown and Jiwan James.

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  9. One name to throw at you: Reese Havens. Just watched the entire SEC tournament. He hits, he has good lateral movement and an incredible arm. I am surprised that not more people are talking about him. I also read that he hit .315 in the Cape last year.

    What are your thoughts?

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  10. Here are some of my selections, in no particular order (except the top two):
    Tanner Scheppers (depending on his MRI, which I’m sure Doc Ciccotti is studying by now).
    Ethan Martin
    Brett Wallace
    Jake Odorizzi
    Daniel Schlereth
    Reese Havens
    David Cooper
    Cutter Dykstra
    Ryan Westmoreland

    Two local HS Philadelphians:
    Charlie Law
    Quinton Miller

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  11. I’m not on the Reese Havens bandwagon at 24, at 34 would be a different story. He swings and misses A LOT for a college hitter, and he might end up moving to 3B, where his bat wouldn’t be quite as impressive. Looking at Havens now, and thinking 2 years down the road, I don’t think there will be much difference between him and Jason Donald. I’d prefer to gamble on a guy with more upside, and in terms of similar players, I’d rather grab Ryan Flaherty from Vanderbuilt, who I like more than Havens, in the 2nd round.

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  12. I hate to use the term however, Havens is more toolsy than Flaherty. He is definitely a better athlete. (And remember that I am the guy that loves Flaherty) I would be happy with either one as a comp pick as you have mentioned before. South Carolina had some pretty good pitchers that I saw in the tournament btw.

    Judging a guy by his junior year in college is a tough thing because it is like a professional athlete in a contract year. Sometimes they try to do too much.(I can tell you from experience)

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  13. Also, you gotta keep your eye on Ross Seaton in the comp round. The Phillies really seem to trust their Texas area scout, and Seaton is a projectable RH prepster, ticking off two boxes for the Phillies.

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  14. I’m a fan of Cooper’s as well, though I like Ike Davis a lot and Dykstra as well. I’ve seen some rumblings about Martin lately, so maybe there is something going on that makes the Phils think he’ll be there. I’d be fine with DeVall, though I wonder if he might be there at 34 if we pass on him at 24. The dream scenario is that Wallace falls to 24, but I think that is just that, a dream. Too many teams ahead of us seem to like him for him to fall.

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  15. ugh, now I feel sick.

    Romeisburning (Philadelphia, PA): Melville, Martin or Schneppers (due to injury)? Will any of them be around for the Phils at pick 24 and if so, who would the Phils jump on?

    SportsNation Keith Law: (1:34 PM ET ) Martin will probably be gone. I’ve heard the Phils are leaning towards taking a college reliever at 24, and they like NJ prep RHP Jason Knapp (throws hard, bad delivery) in the supplementals. Although they’re really at the mercy of the board at 24 – sounds like two or three college relievers will already be gone by then.

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  16. I really hope its a smokescreen. If they reach to take a mediocre reliever who turns into the next Craig Hansen and then they take a guy not even in the BA 200 at 34, I may be moderately to extremely pissed off.

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  17. I love Flaherty’s swing. Although he probably won’t play SS, he has the strong arm and soft hands to become an excellent defensive 3B. Flaherty might be my favorite college position player in the late 1st/comp range.
    I’d rate our possible 3B picks in the following order:
    1) Brett Wallace- won’t be available
    2) Craig Kelly- dad being from the area might help with “signability”.
    3) Ryan Flaherty
    4) Conor Gillespie- not sure he’s a 3B, or if he has more power than Flaherty, and his value would diminish as a corner outfielder.
    5) Reese Havens- solid bat, but a notch below the rest.
    6) Brett Lawrie- better value as a catcher, but if he somehow falls to #35, his bat justifies the move to 3B.
    7) James Darnell- more of a 2nd rounder.

    I guess Anthony Hewitt could be considered a 3B, since he plays SS in high school. I’d prefer him as a slugging CF, but he could be tried at the hot corner..

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  18. I agree with your preference for DeVall. I watched the short clip you posted and he looks soled, like you said with little wasted motion. He is a safe pick, which is an asset but could also be a minus depending on your perspective. But what is there not to like about a solid lefty with good control. He is precisely what the Phillies need, a reliable, middle of the pack pitcher. We have an ace, now we need to get some quality in the middle and back. Eaton is not cutting it, and Moyer’s days are numbered…and the numbers are very low. I agree completely with your assesment.

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  19. You have to think that is a smokescreen. No way I see them going that direction. I don’t get the love for Knapp either. If they want him, wait until the 5th or 6th round.

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  20. I’m thinking hard about college relievers. If Dan Schlereth dropped to #24, he’d be hard not to take. Couldn’t the Phillies use a lefty closer whose fastball reportedly sits at 96-98mph? Since they’re obviously desperate for lefty relievers at the moment, I think he’d be in the CBP pen by August.

    I also like Zach Stewart in round 2, and several others after that…

    I realize that relievers lack upside, so let me explain my rationale…Ryan Howard is the key to this draft; the Phils either need to plan to get rid of him or find a way to keep him. If the Phils plan on getting rid of Howard, they need to draft college position players with pop, who can replace his power in the lineup within several years.
    I prefer to keep Howard, but doing so requires long range planning. Basically, the Phils need to save money on other positions, so they can pay Howard. An easy way to save money is in the bullpen…If Mark Schlereth and Zach Stewart could replace Brad Lidge and Tom Gordon in 2009, the Phillies just saved 15 million dollars, which can be used to pay Howard. I realize this would be a long shot, but its just an idea.

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  21. That’s an interesting take on the draft stragtegy. I think that the best players end up not being as expensive as they seem though. Considering that great players improve the record of a team, which increases the revenue in every way, and considering that popular players, a la Rollins Howard and Utley, increase merchandise sales, I see big salaries as ultimately not as big as they seem. A similar argument was made over the signing of Diasuke, that the $100 mil+ that the Red Sox paid for him would not be as huge when taken in the context of the tremendously increased televesion and merchandise revenue increases gained from his Japanese fans. To me, the real fat of salaries are the middle tier players, whose value over replacement players is not incredible, but whose salaries are. Eaton is the obvious example, making $7.5 mil more than would a minor league substitute and offering worse performance, but there are many other examples as well. Barajas, Jenkins, Feliz all cost more than someone from inside the system, but do not delver results that are worth it, and are not marketable, and do not bring fans or any other revenue increasing aspect.

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  22. Schlereth would be terrible at 24, and I don’t think hes anything more than a 2nd rounder. He’s not going to be a closer, his ceiling is probably a setup guy. You don’t draft setup guys in the first round.

    And you don’t draft, at the top of the draft, based on your needs at the major league level. You draft the most talented players you believe in the most, and then you sort out where they will play later.

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  23. Schlereth is mentioned in top 10 consideration and is gone before #24 in most recent mocks. I wish the Phils ownership allowed them to take the BPA regardless of other considerations, but we’re not operating in a vacuum. I think the Phils would like to keep Howard and are looking for ways to make that happen. In a normal year, I’d oppose drafting a reliever, but these extra picks make it a possibility. I’d rather keep both Howard and Lidge, but between the two, would certainly prefer Howard. If Schlereth would at least satisfy a 5m/year need for a quality setup man, thats a start.

    Don’t forget Schlereth could still become a starter…I haven’t really followed his career, but apparently he threw 6 no-hitters in high school.

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  24. I have yet to see a mock draft ranking him anywhere near that high. He has a really bad delivery, from the little bit I’ve seen, and he’s seen as a reliever only. BA has him at #60

    The son of former NFL offensive lineman and current ESPN commentator Mark Schlereth, Daniel Schlereth was an eighth-round pick last year as a draft-eligible sophomore, having missed a year due to Tommy John surgery. Schlereth didn’t sign and has come back improved as part of a devastating Arizona bullpen with three of the nation’s best power arms. While teammate Ryan Perry figures to be drafted higher this year (and sophomore closer Jason Stoffel should go higher next year), Schlereth was making a case to go in the first two rounds by showing improved command and stuff from 2007. Schlereth finds the strike zone more consistently with his 90-94 mph fastball and at times has more velocity, sometimes sitting 94-96. His power breaking ball is a swing-and-miss pitch, and he’s done a better job of throwing it for strikes. After a failed bid as a starter earlier in his career, Schlereth has shown the guts to challenge hitters with his stuff in a relief role and could be the rare lefthanded closer as a pro. The biggest question will be whether or not he can maintain his stuff while improving his control. He’ll never have command with the effort he puts into his delivery, but he still doesn’t throw as many quality strikes as he’ll need to at higher levels. He’s expected to be drafted in the first three rounds.

    I’d be pissed if we took him at 24. I don’t think he goes any higher than late comp round, possibly the middle of the 2nd round.

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  25. A pick like that would go against everything that Wolever and company have been saying recently. Hopefully they’re just spreading some false information to keep teams guessing about who they really want.

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  26. As someone who’s just now starting to follow the MLB Draft, thanks for the insight, James, and keep up the good work.

    I’ll give the Phils the benefit of the doubt now and hope that the reliever bit is a smokescreen. With the big club in win now mode, Gillick & Co. will undoubtedly be looking to make a big splash at the trade deadline, so they need to draft well to replenish the system here. Let’s just pray they don’t screw it up.

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  27. BP’s Kevin Goldstein mentioned Schlereth in the mix for Houston at #9:
    “10. Houston Astros…Suddenly, rumors abound that Houston is interested in some of the college relievers who could potentially sign quickly and get the big leagues in a hurry, like Georgia’s Josh Fields, or Arizona’s Daniel Schlereth. The latter is a stocky southpaw who opened many eyes last weekend when he came out sitting at 92-94 mph and touching 97; he’s been rocketing up draft lists. Tenth overall might be too big a jump for him, but the rumor he’s in the mix is there.”http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7570

    Mayo has him going #23 to San Diego in his latest mock
    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080528&content_id=2786402&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp

    …and I don’t remember where(pg maybe?) but I swear I saw another mock over the weekend that had Schlereth going in the late teens…I specifically remember that because it disappointed me…

    He probably rose with his recent spike in velocity. He’s a 2nd rounder throwing 93-94, but any lefty throwing 97-98 almost has to go in the 1st…

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  28. btw- in that same mock, Mayo had the Phils taking Ethan Martin…I’d be thrilled if the 1st round shook out that way

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  29. As I pointed out in a previous draft thread (that was never responded to), a college reliever has just about the same pan-out rate as any other pitcher, only you tend to find out much faster if he has the stuff. If the Phillies at the MLB level only have a 3-ish year window, I can’t see the harm in taking a college RP to fast track. Gordon isn’t getting any younger, Lidge is a potential FA after this season, etc. Not saying it’s necessarily the right thing to do, but it’s also certainly not horrible.

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  30. But relivers at the top of a draft are useless Heilman and Street are nothing without a quality starter to get to them. I’d rather have the starter who has make up isseus but could be a potential #2/#3 even a #4 then a reliever like Looper who is ok but will never get you over the top.

    Plus you can completely overhaul a bullpen in about 2 yrs. Look at ours. We have 1 guy from our farm in it. There are always relivers and closers available and I think its easier to shore a pen via free agency so why concern yourself with that in the draft.

    Would you rather nab a reliever who might be a setup guy in 2 yrs for you, or a potential middle rotation lefty in 4-5 yrs? The set up guy, as good as he might be, won’t look that good without the quality starter in front of him.

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  31. “On Tyson Ross: I could almost see Tommy John screaming everytime he threw a pitch. It looks like he puts so much stress on his elbow and arm with that delivery”

    On the other hand, I look at him and see a guy who throws 95 without getting anything substantial from his lower body. Can you imagine what this guy could do if someone taught him a power delivery? While I don’t think all that highly of Phillies minor-league instruction, rebuilding Ross’ delivery would be a heckuva lot easier than rebuilding Josh Outman’s.

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  32. mlb. has the phils taking coner gillespie from wichita state number 1. i have no problem with that unless they do not give donald his shot at third. who does anyone have the phils taking 2nd. it appears that if i am to believe what everyone is writing the best thing for the phils to do , aside from carrasco, donald, golson, bastardo and naylor would be to trade for a quality pitcher.

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