When Threshers fans learned that the Phillies #1 draft pick from 2007 would be part of the 2008 squad it was assumed he would be the staff ace and lead the team following their 2007 Championship run. Unfortunately Savery has not lived up to the hype as he has been less and less affective as the season has progressed.
I hate to say that since Joe is a Houston native, and I grew up there as well. I really wanted to cheer for this guy, but with each successive outing he seems to struggle more and more.
In tonight’s effort he lasted just 4.1 innings giving up 9 runs on thirteen hits with two Ks and two walks. The Threshers offense got six runs in the gme, but could not overcome the deficit.
Savery was a risky pick by the Phillies since he was coming off of surgery in college. He could still amount to a decent prospect, but at this point I am beginning to think that the team may be better off shutting him down for a week or two on the DL perhaps and letting him come back in the future. If his progress continues on the path it has been headed for this year his confidence may be so shot that it could take forever to recover.
So far this year he has a 1-4 record with a 5.19 ERA. His ERA numbers have been 4.50, 4.50, 7.20, 7.50, 9.00 and 18.69 in his last six games after starting 0.00, 2.57, and 0.00 on the year.
I REALLY don’t want to throw in the towel, but he just doesn’t look like he has any confidence on the mound at all. He has given up big runs in the first inning in his last five starts, and though he has usaully settled down, he did not settle down tonight.
I REALLY don’t want to be alarmist, but I want to throw this out for discussion…
Discuss…
Phuture Phillies 
If he’s hurt, yes–shutting him down would be appropriate.
If he’s healthy… well, this is what the minors are for: you identify problems and try to fix them. I’m not usually sympathetic to the “babying” critique, but shutting him down because he’s struggling would not be doing Savery any favors.
Why is it so awful for a talented pitcher to hit a rough patch in his development? He’s probably never had to contend with this before. Better in the FSL than Philadelphia, from the organization’s perspective; if he’s a worthwhile prospect, he’ll be a better ballplayer for having gone through this and come out on the other side.
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come on folks.. i think he will adapt and fix the problem. lets remember that he is still at low A and was double jumped if i remember correctly. Give the man a chance to settle in and change what needs to be changed. If he falls apart further i blame the coaches for either not fixing him or not recognizing he is injured.
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I agree with Dajafi completely. You don’t shut down a struggling player in the minors just because he is scuffling. That is why the minors exist, to work through the rough patches and come out better for it at the major league level.
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There should be some kind of buffer for him if he is struggling though. I wouldn’t recommend shutting him down completely, I would probably have him skip a start, sit down with the roving pitching instructer for the minors (anybody know who that is?). That way they can determine if he is hiding an injury or his mechanics are just out of whack. Was anybody present for those most recent games where he did struggle? Has anything changed in his delivery or approach?
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Savery isn’t “struggling”, he has imploded. His confidence has to be zero. But I wonder if he is hurt?
If you have the talent he appears to have, you eventually just fall back on that and sooner or later it – like cream – it rises to the top. Even if you go through a rough time, your talent usually will save you. One good inning, then two, then three, then a good outing followed by another – and you’re back. Talent conquers all. And he sure looks like he has the talent.
Joe has had five consecutive bad starts, and each one worse than the one before. Even his IP have come down from 6IP on 4/18 to 4IP last night.
His first three starts this year at Clearwater were sensational expecially considering that he jumped Lakewood (but he is 22 and he did play college ball). His nos were 20 IP 15 H 2 ER 9 BB and 13 K’s. That’s mighty encouraging for a young guy.
In fact, his only weakness in the first three games was the BBs. But that was getting better with a WHIP tha went down from 1.8 game #1 to 1.2 game #3. I was preparing to see him in Philly late this year. Wow have things changed.
Shut him down? I can argue it both ways without any confidence that I know what’s best for the club or Joe. I guess maybe they should talk to him, make sure he is phycially sound, and then look him in the eye and make the determination at that time.
Whatever they do, I hope it’s the right thing because I think Joe Savery has a future in the big leagues.
Joey
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Just like we should be cautionary when a guy is on a hot streak (like Bastardo has been), we should probably not get too down on a guy who is struggling (similar to Ryan Howard’s struggles this year – which are very concerning).
That being said, Savery has had a really rough month, and since Crupper has seen him pitch a few times, I’ll have to go with his scouting report. The next couple of starts will be a real test of his intestinal fortitude.
It’s also noteworthy that we’re six posts into this thread and not a single mention of switching Joe Savery to first base. Surprising.
– Jeff
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It would be just as silly to switch a prospect’s position and future after 5 outings as it would be to shut him down if he is healthy. I feel that everyone who reads Phuture Phillies realizes that.
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So after 8 starts you want to shut him down and only think he will be a decent prospect ? Only in Philadelphia….
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The guy also could rake in college. If his problems aren’t injury related and the continue, why not put him at 1b?
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I just wanted to throw this out for discussion. It was a poor choice of words to say shut him down “for the season.” I really just meant for a while. (In fact I edited the post to reflect that change.)
Correct, the minors are for player development. He was pulled after just three innings in his last game, and I’m pretty sure the manager would have liked to pull him earlier last night, but the sent him out for more trying to let him “work himself out of a jam” and learn some confidence in the process. Unfortunately the hole just kept getting bigger. I could really see the frustration on his face and felt bad for the kid. I’m still going to cheer for him and hope for the best.
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That’s the plan right there! Move him back to 1B if it seems like his makeup isn’t “big league hurler” material. We all know he can hit. But I’d like to see a full year of starts first before making that move. No way should he be shut down unless he’s injured.
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I think its way too early to panic. This is his first full pro season. The reports on him a few weeks ago from scouts were very good. Brett Myers is going through a real rough patch right now, and he’s 27 and has been in the big leagues for 5 seasons. It happens to every pitcher at some point. If hes hurt, then yes, he needs to be shut down. If hes not hurt, he needs to sort himself out. He’s got plenty of time.
I think maybe some were being unrealistic in their expectations, expecting him to just breeze through High A and move to AA this season. The fact is, very few college juniors end up in AA in their first full season.
If Savery is still getting slaughtered in July, I’ll be concerned. Its mid May, I’m not even concerned at all.
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This was expected with Savery, the guy hasn’t been a full time pitcher ever. There are going to be ups and downs in his first year in the minors, especially since he was double jumped. He’s got the stuff which is what matters at this point, next year expect him to be the Man and be in Philly late 2009.
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He did not give up a home run last year in short season in 26.1 innings and only 1 in 46.1 innings this year until last night’s outing when he gave up 2 long balls. For a ground ball pitcher that is a sign of a dead arm and Jeff was right on shutting him down because a serious problem does exist.
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It could be the “rule of 30” that PhuturePhillies referred to earlier this year about Andrew Carpenter. I believe that was the rule or something similar to it.
I can’t find the exact article I was thinking of, so I’ll paraphrase. It said something like when a pitcher throws 30 more innings in a year than he has thrown in previous years, he will come back poorly the following year.
I don’t know Savery’s college innings pitched numbers, but he would have pitched his college season last year, then short season ball after being drafted, and then Arizona Fall League ball on top of that. I’m sure that gave him far more than 30 innings over what he pitched before, and he may now be suffering the consequences of it.
Perhaps that is inevitable, and the only way for him to build future arm strength is to pitch another long season. However I’d hate to see his performance continue on this track and ruin his confidence in the process.
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i have never been high on him and have always felt he is over rated. i have said it several times on this blog. he has never shown a dominance to match all of the PR he gets.
if he is hurt, then shut him down, as i would say about any other pitcher/player. if he is not hurt and he can’t get Single A batters out then he is in real trouble. i am not giving up on him and i agree with PP that it is too early. i also don’t believe in kid gloves. life is tough. the big leagues are tough. tough players make it, soft players don’t. he needs to go out every 5th day and pitch. who cares about clearwater’s W-L record? it is irrelevant. the minors are for player development only.
also, the meyers analogy is off. yes, meyers is struggling right now, but he is in the majors and has a lot of history of above average MLB pitching on his side. Savery is in A ball. Also, meyers is a fighter and is fighting through this. by Jeff’s account, if Savery is letting this affect him then he is WEAK!
Again, i am not saying he is done. Matheison is done, not Savery. But now is the time for him to show us if he is a real prospect or all talk.
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We really don’t know what the promlems are. There could be a multitude of them, but unidentified so far.
The real concern should be whether there is some sort of physiological arm problem. So far, nothing has been said about that.
A strong possibility is the attempt to get his arm in some sort of pitching groove…which may have been changed or altered for whatever reason, and he’s going through an adjustment period.
Remember that he has said that he was looking forward to working with the pro coaches to do the refinements that he missed in college because of his arm surgery. This “blip” may be a result of changes made in pursuit of such refinements…and may take several more weeks (?) to come together.
My only concern is injury; lacking that, I believe things will work out by July…?or so.
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If there’s one thing I’ve learned since I started following the minors is that you shouldn’t get too excited or too down on a guy over one month’s worth of action. Everyone was ready to send Bastardo into the Phillies rotation, and he’s come back down to Earth a bit in Reading. Everyone needs to relax. To puff out your chest and say “I told you he was overrated” on May 16th, in his first full season, is about as shortsighted as it gets.
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Amazing that anyone is talking about giving up on the guy (moving him to 1b?) before he’s even completed 1 full ML season.
Savory’s biggest problem was the expectations thrown around that this guy might be able to help the Phillies by late this season or compete for a job in 2009.
He didn’t pitch much his last year in school due to the injury and he didn’t throw many innings last season.
Savory is going through a learning process. Either he works his way out of it and is better for the experience or he is too mentally fragile to be a ML pitcher anyway.
Seems to me that now is as good a time to find out. IF he is still struggling by July, then maybe they drop him down to Lakewood.
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Good discussion, thanks for the post. Barring injury, they should keep running him out there. This is the time you want veterans talking to him. Every ballplayer struggles at some point. He’s not used to failure and he needs to learn how to work his way out of his slumps like any other pro. He needs to isolate the problem. Is it confidence? Mechanics? Conditioning? Injury?
These early failures could turn out to be a good thing if he handles it right. I just hope he isn’t hurt.
They used to say Cole Hamels needed to struggle some before getting the call just to see how he would handle it. Well, Savery is getting that chance now. He needs to show character and growth. The talent is there. I haven’t soured on him one bit.
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I like many others had big expectations for Savery, especially as I said because he is a fellow Houstonian. I’m probably getting more down that I should simply because of my expectations.
That is exactly why I threw out this post. I needed some perspective and wanted some discussion to bring me back to reality perhaps.
Like so many guys who get drafted highly he is not used to struggling, and how he overcomes his struggles will be what is most important in this case. I know he has high expectations for himself; higher than anything those of us who follow him could possibly have.
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Three things to ponder…
1. He’s not injured. At least that’s what he says.
B. His problem is control. He’s aware of it and frustrated by it. Sitting him down or throwing him in the pen won’t help. It would just build pressure and frustration.
III. It’s not like he was scheduled to land in Philly before the end of the year. Give him time, before jumping ship!
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PP is correct. Expectations were way too high on Savery
(and some of our other “ace” prospects as well). If he’s
not hurt, let him work out his problems on the mound… or
sink…
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“PP is correct. Expectations were way too high on Savery”
Not only that, I think people who even question whether he should be a postion player probably have too high of an expectation just what his ceiling as a hitter is. I’m not saying he’s be bad, just that I don’t think he’s a 3-4-5 type guys either. He’s pitching because thats what his best toolset is.
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people should be allowed to express concerns about a prospect and not be accused of being “as short sided as it gets.” especially when they express concerns that they have had from the beginning. either way, there is no reason to start name calling a fan.
anyway, i wasn’t overly impressed with Savery’s college stats, his first year pro stats or this year’s stats even the first few starts this year when he had a low era, not a great whip and a low strike out/9 total.
i repeat what i said above, which is that i am not giving up on him, but this is a good test to see what he is made of. i remain concerned about his lack of strike outs at any level. i believe what was said on this blog a while back, that top pitching prospects usually strike out a lot of people in the minors. savery has never shown that type of ability. i don’t think that he is as bad as he has been the past few weeks, but i also don’t think that he is as good as some of the PR that he gets. thus, i think that he is overrated and have thought so from the beginning.
i hope that i am wrong and he turns out to be the staff ace that the phillies sorely need.
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You said this
Thats not true. After his freshman year in college, he was already regarded as one of the best prospects in college. Had he not gotten hurt, he’d have been a surefire Top 5 pick, largely because his stuff was excellent, and he was a mashing 1B. His fastball was 93-94 when I saw him pitch as a freshman, and he was very sharp. The injury took a lot out of him, and he’s still recovering. I’m not name calling, I’m simply pointing out that its a bit silly to start with the “I told you so’s” after 6 weeks of his first full season.
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maybe if i saw him in 2005 i would feel the same way you do. i hope that he returns to that form. i hope you are right and i am wrong…lord knows the phils need the pitching.
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Zero concerns, let the guy pitch a whole year please….
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He’s still young…we’ll see what happens.
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I’m not arguing for one way or another, but it needs to be asked…
What if Savery played 1B everyday, but kept pitching? Not as a starter, but out of the bullpen…Perhaps he shouldn’t “concentrate” on pitching. Maybe he’s thinking too much about correcting problems that weren’t severe to begin with. If thats the case, he wouldn’t be the 1st or 10000th prospect to have that problem.
If his pitching improves dramatically, let him rest a few days and give him a start. Then just take it from there…The better he pitches, the less he plays 1B. Play him according to strength and need, not according to some preconcieved notion of player development that doesn’t suit him.
Perhaps some strong at bats would boost his confidence.
Is there a modern precedent for a position player who occasionally pitched as a reliever?
Again, I’m not advocating a switch to 1B, but if Savery’s troubles continue for the rest of the year, this could be an option in 2009…Sorry for this”wacky” notion, but Savery could build confidence at the plate, which could carry over to the mound.
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****Is there a modern precedent for a position player who occasionally pitched as a reliever?****
I can’t think of any. There have been position players used as emergency pitchers in extra innings situations several times based off of prior pitching experience but I can’t think of anything like you are suggesting. Teams would shy away from it because of the injury potential and the amount of money invested in the prospect. Personally I would just let Savery work through it and keep throwing him out there every 5th day…
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Yeah I really dont see it as an issue at all, to be honest. Savery was pitching well a month ago. Hes struggling now. Its called adjustment. Teams will adjust to him, so its his job to make adjustments as well. The minors are a teaching phase, his ERA isn’t a concern right now. If hes still struggling in August, this will merit more discussion. Even then, this is only his first full season. The problem is, people came in with thoughts of him jumping to the majors this year, which is just completely unrealistic when looking at the big picture.
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In response to Baxter: I found this on YankeesRedsox.com (another site I frequent) and thought I’d copy it for you:
There have been many pitchers that could hit a bit. Yankees fans, you might remember Rick Rhoden was used as a DH. Tim Wakefield was a star shortstop in high school and started his pro career as a shortstop, although his batting record in the majors is…bad.
Wes Ferrell is probably the best hitting pitcher not named Babe Ruth. Ferrell put up .280/.351/.446 numbers in his 15 season career. He was an ok pitcher too.
We all recognize Ruth as the best hitting pitcher of all time. Because of his hitting talent, he stopped pitching as it was best to get him in there everyday. I do wonder how long and how well he’d have lasted had he pitched and played OF on his “off-days.”
Back to Owings. In just 2 season at the Major League level, Owings has opened eyes with his hitting. Check these results out at the MLB level: .341/.372/.636/1.008. Sample size you yell! Ok, how does 95 plate appearances sound?
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