Three weeks ago, I rolled out version 1.1 of my mock draft, so I figured it was time to do a bit more digging, try and find some more info that might make the pick a bit more clear, and then make a few necessary updates. To be clear, I have no inside information here, its based strictly on looking at players available and then the team’s past drafting history. I’ve compiled first and supplemental first round data for all 30 teams from 2003-2007, in hopes of finding patterns which might make this a bit easier. Of course, teams can always throw a curveball and do something unexpected, and even the most detailed mock drafts done days before will have things out of place. But thats part of the fun. So, for each pick, I’ll give my updated pick, my last pick for the team, and the under each team a brief analysis of past drafts. If you’ve found my site and you support another team, please chime in if I’ve missed anything, if you have some info on who the team is leaning towards, etc etc. So, lets get going

Before I get started, I just wanted to post a few averages based on the numbers I found for draft history from 2003 to 2007. If I missed anything here, I’d appreciate you pointing it out so I can update my numbers. Here are the raw numbers, and remember, this includes the first round and the supplemental first round

Total picks: 233
4 year college players: 128 (55%)
High school seniors: 102 (44%)
Junior College players: 3 (1%)
Catchers: 18 (8%)
Corner INF: 23 (10%) (I tried to be accurate here, some guys are technically drafted as SS but immediately move to 3B, they are counted as CI)
Middle INF: 27 (12%)
Outfielders: 38 (16%)
Righthanded Pitchers: 88 (38%)
Lefthanded Pitchers: 38 (16%)

Now, onto the draft

1.1 TAM – Tim Beckham, SS (Griffin HS, Georgia) [previous pick, Tim Beckham]

I’m sticking with Beckham here, despite the fact that Buster Posey is getting all kinds of press of late. He’s had a big offensive season, but Florida State is one of the best hitter’s parks in college baseball, and I think he’s a reach at 1.1 even though he’s a solid all around talent. Beckham offers a tantilizing combination of tools and projection and is a premium athlete. Tampa knows full well how you can be rewarded by drafting pure athletes like BJ Upton and Delmon Young. Tampa Bay has only 5 picks in the first/comp round since 2003, selecting 3 pitchers (Price, Townsend and Niemann), an outfielder (Delmon Young) and a 3B in Evan Longoria. They’ve gone college 4 times, with Delmon Young the only HS player taken. That said, I don’t see Alvarez being a fit, and I think they have to like their pitching depth, though Matusz could be a darkhorse candidate. Like Posey though, I don’t see him as a 1.1 guy at this point.

1.2 PIT – Justin Smoak, 1B (South Carolina) [previous pick, Eric Hosmer]

I’m shifting gears here. I think Pittsburgh needs to make a statement, and while I thought Hosmer should be that statement, I just don’t know if Pittsburgh can pull the trigger. Smoak’s stock seemed to drift a bit this year, with some thinking he’d slip out of the Top 5, but this is a kid who tore up the wood bat Cape Code League, and a kid who has 22 HR in 260 AB this season at South Carolina. A switch hitter who is capable of playing well above average 1B is a fine commodity. Adam LaRoche will be a FA after the 2009 season, if I calculated correctly, and that might be all the time Smoak needs, as he’s a very polished college hitter. The Pirates draft follies are well publicized by now. They’ve gone college 3 times out of their 5 picks since 2003, and having been burned on arms in the past, I think they should go with a bat. To me, Smoak is a very low risk type of guy who offers you 30-35 HR potential and upper echelon defense. Just make the pick and sign him.

1.3 KCR – Brian Matusz, LHP (San Diego University [previous pick, Brian Matusz)

Gonna stick with Matusz here. He came into the season with high expectations and hasn’t really failed to live up to them, posting a 2.05 ERA and a 122-20 K to BB ratio in 88.0 IP. Kansas City could go a number of ways here. If Beckham is there, they should probably take him. I don’t see Alvarez as a natural fit with Gordon and Moustakas in the fold at 3B and Billy Butler locked in at 1B/DH. They could conceivably take Buster Posey I guess, but I guess my skepticism on Posey is going to cause me to drop him down the board a bit. KC needs pitching, just like every other team, and with the polish Matusz has shown, he should be able to move quickly. KC has gone college 5 times to prep 3 times since 2003, and while they’ve taken 2 RHP to only 1 LHP, I think Matusz makes the most sense here.

1.4 BAL – Pedro Alvarez, 3B (Vanderbuilt) [previous pick, Pedro Alvarez]

I don’t really see anything here to change my mind. The Wieters selection last year is already paying dividends, as he’s raking in High A and looks poised to hit Baltimore sometime in 2009. Alvarez is a quality hitter, he’ll probably be at least average defensively, and the really worst case scenario has him moving to 1B and mashing there. Baltimore has Billy Rowell, but he’s more likely the 1B of the future, or in some mix with Brandon Snyder. I guess this pick is going to be contingent on Alvarez being there at 4 and his actual asking price. I tend to not really believe bonus figures floated this early. I think he’ll get a lump sum bonus, one a little smaller than Wieters got last year, and I think he’ll sign for that. 4 of Baltimore’s 7 picks since 2003 have been college players, and when they’ve gone for a college bat they’ve gotten it right with Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters.

1.5 SFG – Gordon Beckham, SS (Georgia) [previous pick, Buster Posey]

This is a tough pick. I was tempted to just stick with Posey here, but I decided to change course. Very few players, short of Posey, have done more to elevate their draft stock than Gordon Beckham, who’s gone from late 1st rounder to potential Top 5-10 pick. He’s an offensive minded middle infielder, and the Giants, well lets face it, they don’t have much going at all offensively. They have a few interesting guys in the low minors, but Beckham, as an advanced college hitter, will move quickly and could give the Giants a legit SS or 2B option in 2 years. The Giants had leaned heavily towards college players prior to 2007, when 5 of their 6 first/comp round picks were prepsters. I see them reverting here for a college bat, either Beckham or Posey, but for now, I’ll go with Beckham.

1.6 FLA – Buster Posey, C (Florida State) [previous pick, Tim Melville]

I chose to change course here for 2 reasons. Melville has been somewhat inconsistent this spring, but the crop of prep RHP is very thin this year, which means I think hes still going to be a Top 15 pick. However, the more I think about Florida, the more I think they still need bats in their system. Florida has relatively nothing in terms of catching prospects in their system, and not only is Posey a catcher, but he’s well rounded and can hit, which would work nicely. Florida has gone college for 2 of their 3 picks in the last 2 drafts, and prior to that they famously drafted 5 prep pitchers in the first/comp rounds. While I still doubt Posey’s 20 HR power in the bigs, mainly because he plays in such a combustible hitting environment now, I think he makes a ton of sense for Florida at #6.

1.7 CIN – Aaron Crow, RHP (Missouri) [previous pick, Shooter Hunt]

Crow seems like a bit of a mystery. He might be the 2nd or 3rd best player available, and you could argue he’s the best pitcher available and you might have a case, but with the sheer number of bats available, I think he’s going to slide. Cinci normally tends to take prep pitchers, but the possibility of landing Crow might be too much to pass up. Cincinnati hasn’t taken a college pitcher in the first/comp rounds since Ryan Wagner in 2003, but this might be a good time to break ranks.

1.8 CHW – Yonder Alonso, 1B (Miami) [previous pick Justin Smoak]

I originally had Smoak falling down to Chicago here, and while he might, I like him in Pittsburgh better. That leaves the White Sox to still try and locate some offense, and I think Alonso is the guy here who will fit the bill. Eric Hosmer would be the better overall guy to take, but Chicago won’t enter the Boras division here. Alonso is a polished college hitter and he’ll inject some life into an otherwise lifeless system. Chicago has gone almost exclusively to the college ranks since 2003, taking 6 college players and only 1 prepster in Gio Gonzalez. The White Sox went after power arms last year and they could possibly go with a college pitcher, but I think Alonso fits better.

1.9 WAS – Kyle Skipworth, C (Patriot HS, CA) [previous pick, Tanner Scheppers]

This is the hardest pick for me to figure out right now. Because not only do I not really know what the Nats plan to do, I have no idea where they should really go here. Last year, it was known that they were prepared to take Matt Wieters if he fell to them. When he went off the board right before their pick, they went with Ross Detwiler, who was a good value there. They spent a lot of money after the first round and landed premium talents in Burgess, Smoker and McGeary, the McGeary deal being the most creative. So they aren’t afraid to spend the money, it would appear. Does that mean they take a run at Eric Hosmer? Or possibly Aaron Crow? For as much as the Nats system has improved, they still need help everywhere. Their best offensive prospect, in terms of near readiness, is Chris Marrero, who is likely locked in to 1B only. Will that prevent them from taking Hosmer? Would they take a college arm? Aaron Hicks might be tempting, but he’s a two way guy, the Nats don’t have a deep recent history with two way players. I like Skipworth for a number of reasons. He’s the best prep catcher available, he has advanced plate discipline, and there’s no real reason to assume he won’t stay at catcher. Sure, his receiving needs work, but you rarely find high school catchers with a bat like Skipworth’s who aren’t perfectly polished receivers. The Nats are in no real hurry, they understand they have to build from within, and Skipworth might be the best option in that regard right here, should they not take Hosmer.

1.10 HOU – Shooter Hunt, RHP (Tulane) [previous pick, Gordon Beckham]

In my first mock draft, I actually had Hunt lined up here, then changed it to Beckham. So, I’m back at square 1, or square 0, or whatever. Hunt is a polished college pitcher, and at this point, the Astros system just needs talent of any kind. Theres no indication they will enter the Boras division now, so I think you can rule out guys like Hosmer, as well as guys who’ve said they might want more than slot, a guy like Aaron Crow. Its really a coin flip here between Scheppers and Hunt for me, and I’ll just stick with my instincts for now and say Hunt is the man. Houston has had so few picks since 2003 (only 3), that its hard to know where they’ll go. They’ve gone college with 2 of those, but neither guy, Brian Bugosevic or Eli Iorg, have worked out. Then again, prep catching prospect Max Sapp hasn’t really blown up pro ball either. Like I said, the Astros need talent of any kind.

1.11 TEX – Tim Melville, RHP (Holt HS, Missouri) [previous pick, Yonder Alonso]

I’ve gone in a different direction here as a cascading effect of Pittsburgh taking Justin Smoak, with Alonso coming off the board to the White Sox. Melville was regarded as the top prep pitcher prior to the season, and while he’s been inconsistent, the raw stuff and projectability is still there. Texas has generally varied their picks, taking 4 college kids and 6 prepsters since 2003. When they’ve taken pitchers, its often times been a high schooler, while they’ve gone the college route for their position guys. I don’t see a college bat here for them if Alonso is gone, and with Salty a possible 1B candidate down the road, maybe 1B isn’t the greatest of needs. If they do decide on a college bat, Alonso would still be my guess should he be on the board, and I suppose Conor Gillaspie is a possibility. But I like Melville here.

1.12 OAK – Brett Wallace, 1B/3B (Arizona State) [previous pick, Wallace]

This one just seems too easy. Wallace is a polished hitter with great plate discipline and raw power. The biggest question is whether or not he can play 3B as a pro, with more seeming to think he can’t. Even if he can’t, he’d be more than adequate defensively at 1B, which allow the team to just move Daric Barton where he belongs, the DH spot. Oakland has drafted a college player with all 12 of their first/comp round picks since 2003, and the last prepster they took in the first round was Jeremy Bonderman way back in 2001. The only other guy here I’d consider would be Tanner Scheppers, who would likely be the best affordable college arm available at #12.

1.13 STL – Tanner Scheppers, RHP (Fresno State) [previous pick, Dennis Raben]

I had originally projected the Cards to go after an OF, but a commenter pointed out the Cardinals have some outfield depth, so I decided to see if I could find anything else. The Cards have split their 10 picks from 2003-2007 evenly between the college and prep ranks, but 6 of their 10 picks have been righthanded pitchers and 5 of those 6 pitchers have been college hurlers. While that doesn’t necessarily mean they have to take a RHP college guy here, Scheppers wouldn’t be a reach at all. I have him ranked equally with Hunt, his command might be a tick better even, so this would be good value. The Cards have plenty of needs, so they could conceivably go in another direction, but I like Scheppers here.

1.14 MIN – Conor Gillaspie, 3B (Wichita State) [previous pick, Gillaspie]

I’m just going to stick with this pick for now, simply because I have no real feel for what Minnesota will do here. They are close to an even split, taking 6 prepsters to 4 college guys since 2003, and they have a proclivity for RHP, but I don’t see an obvious target here. Minnesota doesn’t crack the recommended slot very often, so I don’t see Aaron Crow here. If either Scheppers or Hunt were to slide, I could easily see that. I had also thought that maybe Casey Kelly would fit here, but he’s a signability concern at this point because of his football/baseball offers from colleges. They could also surprise and take Issac Galloway, who was being looked at as a Top 10 pick this winter, but who is now seeing his stock dip into the end of the first round/second round. Minnesota lacks impact bats in their system, and while Gillaspie won’t stir up Brooks Robinson comparisons, he should be able to stick there and he can hit a baseball, which is illustrated in his .398/.484/.656 batting line this year.

1.15 LAD – Gerrit Cole, RHP (Lutheran HS, CA) [previous pick, Cole]

I liked Cole here before, and I’m sticking with him here again. The Dodgers got burned by a Boras client two years ago during the Hochevar mess, but the signing of Andruw Jones proves they can still work together. Cole has great stuff, lots of projectability, and fits the mold of what the Dodgers like in prep pitchers. I’m not sure what his asking price will be, and that would probably be the only thing that wouldn’t work with this pick. Eric Hosmer is still on my board, but with James Loney entrenched, I see no reason for them to pay a huge over slot bonus here.

1.16 MIL – Ethan Martin, RHP (Stephens County HS, GA) [previous pick, Kyle Skipworth]

Jack Zduriencik is one of the absolute best evaluators in the biz, and his drafts over the last 5 or 6 years have basically built the current Brewers team. While he’s done real well in the first round, he’s also found plenty of gems after the first round, and hes done so without greatly busting slot. I wanted to put Gerrit Cole here, but the Boras factor may come in. I think Milwaukee probably would like a catcher, so Skipworth would have worked here, but I think they might turn to the mound. Milwaukee has alternated between college and prep over the last 5 picks, with Matt LaPorta, a slugging 1B going last year. With that in mind, I’m going with a prep pitcher, and a guy who’s stock is on the uptick, Ethan Martin. Martin is a 2 way guy out of Georgia, but is looking more like a pitcher, especially after throwing a no hitter last month. He’s going to need time, especially once he starts to focus on just pitching. I was tempted to go with Josh Fields here, but Jack Z doesn’t seem like the type to panic and draft a college reliever because of uncertainty at the big league level.

1.17 TOR – Christian Friedrich, LHP (Eastern Kentucky) [previous pick, Friedrich]

I’m gonna stay with this pick for now. Toronto has gone college a lot more than not (7 college, 3 prep), and they like LHP, taking 4 LHP among their 10 picks since 2003. Last year they popped one of the better college lefties in Brett Cecil, and I think Friedrich shares some similarities, including a plus breaking ball. Toronto’s system isn’t particularly deep, they could use a bat like Hosmer, but they aren’t renowned for their slot busting, so that doesn’t seem realistic. Maybe this is a bit simplistic, but they lean college and they like LHP, so I’ll roll with it for now.

1.18 NYM – Josh Fields, RHP (Georgia) [previous pick, Kyle Lobstein]

I had originally pegged the Mets to grab Kyle Lobstein here, but the more I think about it, and the more I think about the Mets love of drafting relievers, this one just seems to fit well. Fields has rebounded nicely after a rough 2007 and his stock is back up. The Mets system is really barren at this point after the Johan Santana deal, so the Mets need help everywhere. However, they have always adhered to the slotting system, and its uncertain whether they will break the mold this year. If they choose to, we know they can afford Hosmer. But I don’t see it.

1.19 CHC – Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP (Wilson HS, CA) [previous pick, Hicks]

Hicks is a guy I think could have a lot of variability, as I can see him going 8 picks higher, or possibly even a bit lower. He’s a 2 way player, he’s flashed brilliance in both areas, and it will be up to his drafting team to figure out exactly what to do with him. The Cubs aren’t afraid to take risks on great athletes, so this pick could make a bit of sense. As I’ve been saying for the last few picks, Eric Hosmer is still the best player available here, but it all comes down to how much money a team is willing to spend. The Cubs spent a ton of money 2 years ago on Jeff Samardzija, but will they be willing to pay $7M plus for Hosmer? Hicks offers a ton of projection and upside, so I like this pick here. The Cubs have had only 5 picks in the first/comp round since 2003 and have gone 2 college and 3 prepsters, so it could go in a number of directions here.

1.20 SEA – Alex Meyer, RHP (HS, Greensburg IN) [previous pick, Meyer]

The Mariners love athletes, and they’ve got their share of young, projectable prospects in their system. Last year they took a raw Canadian pitcher named Phillipe Amount who offered a huge arm with a ton of future projection. Meyer is an imposing 6’7 and offers similar upside. The Mariners are in a similar boat as the Cubs, with only 5 picks since 2003, as well as taking 3 college players and 2 prepsters. I don’t really have a feel here, I don’t think they’ll significantly go over slot, so for now, I’m just going to stick with Meyer.

1.21 DET – Eric Hosmer, 1B (American Heritage HS, FLA) [previous pick, Crow]

We know how Detroit operates by now. Last year they said they were going to play it straight, then they gave Rick Porcello a huge bonus and a big league contract. They can say what they want this year, but if either Hosmer or Aaron Crow end up here, you can bet they’ll pounce. Detroit’s draft record is simple; just take the best player available. They’ve made 6 picks since 2003, 3 from college and 3 from the prep ranks. They’ll follow suit this year and take the best guy on the board.

1.22 NYM – Jason Castro, C (Stanford) [previous pick, Josh Fields]

I had originally thought the Mets might wait till 22 to take Fields, but he’s not letting up, so if they want him, they might not risk letting him go at 18. If they do take him at 18, I can see them going a number of different ways. Castro is the clear 3rd catcher available behind Posey and Skipworth, but could move quickly and should be a good MLB catcher. The Mets have a young catching prospect in Francisco Pena, but he’s quite a ways away. The Mets have made 5 picks in the first/comp round since 2003, taking 3 college players and 2 prepsters. This pick could go in any direction really, but for now, I’m feeling Castro as a possibility.

1.23 SDP – Andrew Cashner, RHP (TCU) [previous pick, Lance Lynn]

The Padres draft strategy is not really a secret, they go college most of the time (9 of 12 picks since 2003), and they like RHP, taking 4 in total out of their 12 draft choices. Cashner’s stock has been rising all spring, and he’s right behind Josh Fields as the most highly touted reliever in this draft class. The Trevor Hoffman era is winding down in San Diego, maybe the Padres view Cashner as a potential closer, or a potential setup reliever to a guy like Heath Bell. There are better players available here, maybe a Jemile Weeks would appeal, but the Padres like their college arms, and both Lance Lynn and Ryan Perry, two guys who might profile here, haven’t blown the doors off this spring. I went with Lynn initially, his numbers are better than Perry’s, so he’s still a possibility.

1.24 PHI – Brett DeVall, LHP (HS, Niceville FLA) [previous pick, DeVall]

I went with DeVall last time, and nothing has changed for me here. If for some reason Brett Wallace would be available at 24, which I don’t think he will, then he’d be my first choice. DeVall is arguably the best prep lefty in the draft, along with Kyle Lobstein, and I just love DeVall’s delivery. The Phillies have had 5 draft picks in the first/comp round since 2003, and they’ve gone with a high schooler 4 out of 5 times, the one exception being last year with Joe Savery. This year, I don’t see that type of college pitcher available. So at this point, my vote goes for DeVall. I’ve heard Casey Kelly’s name mentioned, but as I mentioned earlier, his signability is a concern, and I think it could be an even bigger concern at this point in the first round.

1.25 COL – Lance Lynn, RHP (Ole Miss) [previous pick, Brett Hunter]

I think Colorado is going with a college pitcher, I’ve just changed my mind on which college pitcher. As I mentioned up above, Lynn has been good not great this spring, but he’s fairly polished and should move quickly. The Rockies always need pitching, and they aren’t opposed to taking moderate ceiling starters, taking Greg Reynolds, a prototypical innings-eater at #2 overall two years ago. A darkhorse call here might be David Cooper, a mashing 1B, who right now looks like a possible comp round pick.

1.26 ARI – Jemile Weeks, 2B (Miami) [previous pick, Sonny Gray]

I had originally pinned Sonny Gray here, but Gray has since suffered an ankle injury which is going to cloud his draft status. Arizona has leaned heavily on the college ranks, taking 8 of their 10 picks since 2003 from the college ranks. Arizona has gone pitching a lot more than other areas, and they could still go in that direction with a Ryan Perry or Tim Murphy, but I think they might take a position player here, especially an up the middle infielder. Weeks feels like a comp round pick, but Arizona could go that way if they want to take a guy with a lower ceiling and a somewhat higher probability and not take a pitcher. I’m not really in love with this pick right now, but I’m not really sure where they are going to look at this spot.

1.27 MIN – Issac Galloway, OF (Los Osos HS, California) [previous pick, Tim Murphy]

The Twins have done much of their best work in the draft after the first round, having only 5 picks since 2003. Their system was bolstered by the Santana deal, but they still lack real offensive type prospects. When they have taken position players, they’ve leaned towards the prep side. I have them taking Gillaspie early, which would buck that trend, but I think this pick is contingent on gauging Galloway’s signability. If they feel like they can sign him, it could be a great catch for them. If he decides to go to college, I think they’ll look at a college pitcher, possibly one of the guys I’ve mentioned above in Lynn, Perry or Murphy, depending on who is on the board.

1.28 NYY – Casey Kelly, SS/RHP (Sarasota Fla HS) [previous pick, Ethan Martin]

I originally had Martin here, but have him going earlier now, so its time to re-calibrate. The Yankees have opened the check book in recent drafts, not afraid to pay top dollar for talents that slip, and you can bet that if a guy like Hosmer or Crow or Hicks makes it here, they’ll pounce. Galloway is an intriguing option as well, but for now, I like Casey Kelly, a solid 2 way guy who’s stock is rising. Kelly is the son of former big leaguer Pat Kelly, so if you believe in the whole bloodlines thing, then you’ve got that. He’s viewed as a tough sign (have I mentioned that) but that shouldn’t stop the Yankees from convincing him pro baseball is the way to go. Of the Yankees 8 first round picks since 2003, its been an even split on college and high school players, and 5 of the 8 have been RHP, for what its worth.

1.29 CLE – Dennis Raben, OF (Miami) [previous pick, Tyson Ross]

I originally had Raben going much higher, but his stock seems to be dipping. Cleveland has their CF of the future in Grady Sizemore, but lots of question marks thereafter. Nick Weglarz looks like a solid corner prospect, but Trevor Crowe hasn’t panned out, and the Indians could use an offensive minded OF. Raben has dealt with some minor back issues this year, but was being considered one of the best outfielders in this draft crop coming into the spring. Cleveland leans heavily toward the college ranks, with 6 of their 8 picks since 2003 being college players, and 3 of their 8 picks were outfielders. I actually like Raben here, I don’t know if he’ll maybe go a bit earlier, but this seasons like a decent fit.

1.30 BOS – Anthony Gose, LHP (Bellflower HS, California) [previous pick, Gose]

I’m just gonna stick with Gose here. The same caveats that apply to Detroit and New York apply here, so they could take someone who has fallen due to signability. The Red Sox have made 13 picks since 2003, the most in baseball, and have taken 8 college players, 4 high schoolers and 1 JuCo prospect in Clay Buchholz. I think they’ll take a pitcher here, I think Gose makes a lot of sense. Kyle Lobstein would also fit here, maybe Daniel Webb, or they could completely change it up and take a college bat like David Cooper, though that seems a bit less likely.

There you have it. I’m not going to bother with the compensation round for now. I had projected Colby Shreve to Milwaukee at #32, but he needs surgery on his arm, so that doesn’t seem likely anymore. Ike Davis, David Cooper, and Cody Satterwhite remain in the mix in these spots, and the Phillies should have their choice of a quality player at 34. We’ll look at that more down the road.