*disclaimer*

Mock drafts done two months before the draft are pretty much worthless, but as you know, I love thinking about the draft and trying to figure out what teams will do. So, I figured it would be fun to start looking at teams, consider their drafting strategies in years past, the available talent, and then start to think about how the chips will fall. Since the Phillies pick at #24, its highly unlikely we’ll have any idea what they are planning to do until we get a lot closer to the draft, but I enjoy these types of exercises anyway, so we’ll just go with it and then after the draft, we can look back on this and laugh

* end disclaimer*

So here goes

I’ll just give the pick I expect, then why I expect the team to make that pick. Some explanations will be longer than others. Again, all of this is subject to change, and tomorrow I might feel differently about a certain guy or a certain team. Thats what makes this fun.

1.1 TAM — Tim Beckham, SS (Griffin HS, Georgia)

Beckham is the best prep position player available, ranking ahead of Eric Hosmer for me because of his ability to stay in the middle of the infield, while Hosmer will be limited to 1B. Tampa Bay is loaded with talent up and down, and Reid Brignac is still an elite SS prospect, but I just see them going with Beckham, who probably reminds them a bit of BJ Upton in terms of raw ability, over a college pitcher.

1.2 PIT — Eric Hosmer, 1B (American Heritage HS, FLA)

Call this a hunch. Pittsburgh’s track record under the previous regime is terrible when it comes to drafting pitchers. The Pirates farm system is weak from top to bottom, so they need an impact player. Beckham would be a good fit if Tampa doesn’t take him, and while they could go with Pedro Alvarez here, I think the price tag, plus possibly the presence of Neil Walker might make them think twice and instead go with the prep 1B prospect, who will likely come cheaper than Alvarez. Hosmer won’t come cheap, but I think he’ll come cheaper than Alvarez

1.3 KCR — Brian Matusz, LHP (San Diego University)

This is a tough spot. I had originally thought Aaron Crow here. KC needs pitching, and they might balk at the thought of shelling out huge bucks for Alvarez, with Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas both looking like 3B, though again, Alvarez could work in at 1B, with only Ross Gload “blocking” him. But Matusz offers great polish, he’s left handed, he has a deep arsenal of pitches, and he probably comes slightly cheaper than Aaron Crow . Dayton Moore comes from the Atlanta machine, where they love their prep pitchers, but I think reaching here for Tanner Scheppers or Tim Melville doesn’t seem quite as likely. Matusz has been inconsistent this spring, if he finishes the season strong, I’ll feel even better about this pick.

1.4 BAL — Pedro Alvarez, 3B (Vanderbuilt)

Baltimore made a splash last year with Matt Wieters, and it looks like they are being rewarded. Now that they’ve shown the inclination to spend the money, they shouldn’t shy away from taking Alvarez. Billy Rowell is still a great prospect, but hes raw, and most everyone feels he’ll be moving off of 3B sooner rather than later. I see this as a natural fit, assuming Alvarez doesn’t go in the first 3 picks.

1.5 SFG — Buster Posey, C (Florida State)

I keep going back and forth on this pick. San Fran had a nice draft last year, but their farm system still has tons of holes to fill, and they really lack a blue chip offensive prospect outside of Angel Villalona. V’s presence, though, makes me believe they wouldn’t take Justin Smoak here, as Baby V has already been moved to 1B, and that’s where Smoak also resides. Posey is the best catcher in the draft, he’s polished, and he would be the Giants 2nd best position player prospect almost immediately. San Fran has needs everywhere, but they do have some pitching, the problem is hitting, so I’ll stick with Posey here.

1.6 FLA — Tim Melville, RHP (Holt HS, Missouri)

Melville was looking like the top prep righthander coming into this draft, he’s slipped a few spots it seems, but I think by draft day he’s going to climb back up. Florida has a long track record of taking prep righthanders, so this seems easy. Then again, Melville will want more than slot, so this might not work. If Melville is looking for a huge pay day and the Marlins balk, maybe they take a run at Kyle Skipworth, who would be a reach here on talent, but might sign for the slot at #6.

1.7 CIN — Shooter Hunt, RHP (Tulane)

Cincinnati went with a prep catcher in the first round last year, and has gone prep players in the recent past, but I just have a hunch they might go with a college arm, and they probably won’t be able to pony up for Aaron Crow. Hunt has been rising up draft boards since the start of the season, and I think he’ll continue his rise.

1.8 CHW — Justin Smoak, 1B (South Carolina)

Jim Thome is just about at the end of the line, and Paul Konerko’s back isn’t getting any better. The White Sox farm system is arguably the worst in baseball, and adding a switch hitting 1B with power and a good eye at the plate would be the perfect remedy. Chicago has to take the best available player that falls to them, and if the board plays out in the first 6 picks the way I outlined above, Smoak would be the best available, in my opinion.

1.9 WAS — Tanner Scheppers, RHP (Fresno State)

Scheppers is one of the better all around college pitchers available, and would compliment Ross Detwiler nicely in Washington’s rotation. Crow will be the best pitcher on the board here, but I think Washington might balk at the price tag, even if they want to make a play here.

1.10 HOU — Gordon Beckham, SS (Georgia)

The Astros farm system is abysmal, ranking right down at the bottom with the likes of the White Sox. They need bats, they need arms, they need anyone who can hit or throw the baseball. Beckham is off to a flier this spring and is rising up draft boards. People seem mixed as to his ability to stay at SS, but 2B should be fine if he has to move. He’s a polished hitter who should move fast and will instantly give the Astros someone who they can call a legit prospect.

1.11 TEX — Yonder Alonso, 1B (Miami)

This is where things will start to get really impossible to predict. Texas had a good draft last year, they really re-stocked their system, and they could go in any direction. Alonso is a very well rounded 1B, and would be a good get here, but if they are convinced Salty is going to be moved from C to 1B full time, would they take Alonso here? Would they instead go pitching? The only other position player that I think might warrant a spot here is Kyle Skipworth, also a catcher, so that kind of doesn’t jive well. Last year Texas took Michael Main, a 2 way high school player, and a similar guy is being projected in this area in terms of talent level in Aaron Hicks, so he might be someone that could move into this spot.

1.12 OAK — Brett Wallace, 3B/1B (Arizona State)

Most outlets have Wallace as a late 1st round guy, but I’m not buying it. It would be outstanding to see him slip to the Phillies, but I just don’t see it, and as we get closer to the draft, I think you’ll see him start rising into the top 15. Wallace is a pure hitter with great power and an even better eye at the plate. Scouts seem mixed on whether he can stay at 3B, but if not, he should be at least average at 1B. Daric Barton is likely going to be a DH in a year or 2, and Wallace fits the power/patience model the A’s are known for. Might seem like a reach now, but I’m sticking with it here.

1.13 STL — Dennis Raben, OF (Miami)

The Cardinals seem to play it safe more times than not in the first round, and Raben, one of the best college outfielders available, should be a fairly safe bet. He has a good combination of power and patience, and is likely a good starting corner OF in the bigs.

1.14 MIN — Conor Gillaspie, 3B (Wichita State)

Gillaspie is a pure hitter, and whether or not he stays at 3B is up for debate. The Twins strength is still pitching, and they could use a few bats in their system.

1.15 LAD – Gerrit Cole, RHP (Lutheran HS, CA)

The Dodgers have a pretty good track record with prep pitching, and Logan White is one of the best in the business. Cole’s stock is down because of questions about his command and attitude, but if White zeros in on him, that shouldn’t stop the Dodgers from taking him.

1.16 MIL — Kyle Skipworth, C (Patriot HS, CA)

The Brewers consistently seem to always draft well, and the result has been a great home grown core and more talent on the way. The Brewers surprised everyone last year by taking Matt LaPorta where they did. This year, I think they head to the other end of the spectrum and take their catcher of the future. Skipworth could possibly go higher, but looking at the board, I’m ok with putting him right here for now. Part of me says they’ll go college here, but I think Skipworth belongs in this part of the draft, and he seems to fit well with what the Brewers should be looking for.

1.17 TOR — Christian Friedrich, LHP (Eastern Kentucky)

Toronto more often than not looks to the college ranks in the first round, and I see this year being no different. Friedrich has a hammer curveball which is one of the best in the draft, and should be able to move relatively quickly.

1.18 NYM — Kyle Lobstein, LHP (Coconino HS, ARI)

Because Lobstein is a guy I’d like to see slide to #24, it only seems natural that the Mets would take them with the first of their 1st round picks. Lobstein has arguably the best raw stuff of any prep lefty in the draft. There have been murmurs that the Mets will change course and start spending more money in the draft, which is bad news for Phillies fans.

1.19 CHC — Aaron Hicks, OF/P (Wilson HS, CA)

Chicago isn’t afraid to gamble on raw athletes after taking Tyler Colvin and Jeff Samrshdjnjdsua (the WR from Notre Dame) in recent drafts. Hicks is premium athlete who can throw in the low 90’s and also crush a fastball. Determining which role suits him better is the task.

1.20 SEA — Alex Meyer, RHP (HS, Greensburg IN)

Seattle loves high school kids, especially projectable pitchers. Last year they spent their first rounder on Phillipe Amount, a very raw Canadian RHP with a huge arm and a lot of work to do. This year, Meyer offers a similar package, with a mid-high 90’s fastball already and room for more.

1.21 DET — Aaron Crow, RHP (Missouri)

This is almost too easy, isn’t it? Detroit said last year they were going to play it straight and obey the slot recommendation, then they drafted Rick Porcello when he fell in their lap. The Tigers FO understands the risks and rewards here, and I think they will once again open the check book for Crow if he falls into their laps.

1.22 NYM — Josh Fields, RHP (Georgia)

The Mets have a fetish for college relievers, and Fields is far and away the best available this year. He was drafted by Atlanta last year and didn’t sign, instead going back to Georgia for his senior season, and it looks like a good gamble. He should be in the major league bullpen in 2009, probably to replace ou favorite arsonist Aaron Heilman.

1.23 SDP — Lance Lynn, RHP (Mississippi)

Its no secret that the Padres favor college guys early and often, and they also tend to gravitate toward pitchability guys. Lynn fits the bill, as he doesn’t have raw stuff that will blow you away, but he has a good idea on the mound. I don’t see a comparable college bat here, unless Jemile Weeks slides down here.

1.24 PHI — Brett DeVall, LHP (HS, Niceville FLA)

DeVall is a guy I mentioned previously as someone I really like. I love his delivery, he has great present stuff and projectability as well. DeVall and Lobstein are 1/2 for me among the prep LHP available, and I’d love to see the Phillies go this way. I don’t think there’s any chance Wallace makes it to us here, and I think any of the other college bats would be a reach.

1.25 COL — Brett Hunter, RHP (Pepperdine)

Colorado has gone college pitching the last few years, so I’ll just project a college pitcher here for now. Had some injury concerns, which could depress his stock a bit more and drop him out of this spot as we get closer to the draft.

1.26 ARI — Sonny Gray, RHP (HS, Smyrna TN)

Gray is a bit undersized for a RHP, but that didn’t stop Arizona from taking Jarrod Parker last season. Gray has a great fastball/curveball combination, though he lacks projectability because of his frame. If one of Lobstein or DeVall fall past the first 25 teams, they could be a logical pick as well. Arizona still lacks pitching depth in their system as a whole.

1.27 MIN — Tim Murphy, LHP (Cal)

Minnesota has a great eye for pitching, obviously, and while their system needs bats, Murphy kind of fits the bill. He’s somewhat new to pitching, but has flashed great raw stuff and could be a good bargain here at 27. I think they might like a bat like Issac Galloway, but signability could be an issue.

1.28 NYY — Ethan Martin, 3B/P (Stephens County HS, GA)

The Yankees, like the Tigers, won’t be afraid to flex their financial muscle should a premium guy drop in the draft. Martin is similar to Aaron Hicks in that he’s a good 2 way player with a big time arm and could go either way.

1.29 CLE — Tyson Ross, RHP (Cal)

Cleveland is notably conservative in the draft, and Ross is a decent bet as a middle of the rotation starter. Some questions over his health, but he should be fine come June.

1.30 BOS — Anthony Gose, LHP (Bellflower HS, California)

As with the Yankees and Tigers, if a big ticket guy falls, they’ll pounce. Gose has a big time arm with mid-upper 90’s velocity but has some minor injury issues. He’s a potential 2 way guy, but I think his future is on the mound, and Boston never turns an eye to guys with big upside.

I’ll also take a shot at the first few picks of the supplemental round up through the Phillies pick.

1.31 MIN — Cody Satterwhite, RHP (Mississippi)

Stock has dropped a bit, but Minnesota can spot the undervalued guys, and Satterwhite still has a lot of potential.

1.32 MIL — Colby Shreve, RHP (CC of Southern Nevada)

Shreve has great raw stuff but he’s been slightly inconsistent. He’s a bit more under the radar because hes at a junior college, but could still slide into the sandwich round here, and I could even see a team taking him earlier depending on how he finishes this spring.

1.33 NYM — Ike Davis, 1B/OF (Arizona State)

If the Mets take two pitchers, they may take a bat here in the comp round. Again, their system is barren, they need help all over the place.

1.34 PHI — David Cooper, 1B (California)

Cooper is a mashing 1B, and to me, this would be an excellent pick for the Phillies on a number of levels. Michael Durant’s early surge not withstanding, the Phillies have next to nothing in terms of 1B prospects in the system, and Ryan Howard’s long term status has yet to be determined. Cooper is a polished hitter (hitting close to .400 this season with more walks than strikeouts) who also has some pop, with 16 HR already this season. The question is, will he make it this far? I think at this point he will. I’d be more than happy with this pick.