I meant to write this up yesterday, but I was sidetracked after the chat and then forgot to put it up last night. A commenter posted it, which reminded me to do it now. Yesterday in his chat, Jim Callis was asked whether he liked Carlos Carrasco or Josh Outman more, and his response was…
Brian (Philly): Carlos Carrasco or Josh Outman?
Jim: Beginning to think the answer to that one should be Outman.
Now this strikes me as somewhat strange. I don’t mind someone liking Outman a bit more, but nothing in their comparative numbers this year would indicate Outman should pull ahead of Carrasco, as Carrasco was again ranked higher by BA heading into this season.
Carrasco, Age 21: 11.0 IP — 8 H — 4 BB — 14 K — 2 HR — 0.55 GO: AO
Outman, Age 23: 17.0 IP — 18 H — 8 BB — 19 K — 0 HR — 0.68 GO:AO
The only statistical advantage Outman has over Carrasco is a few more groundballs at this point, and Carlos has allowed 2 HR. But Carrasco is 2 years younger than Outman, which is a really big consideration in this debate. Outman’s fastball is good for a lefty, with plus velocity, but his control is a real work in progress, as it has been since he came out of college. Carrasco hasn’t done anything to diminish his stock this season, and Outman hasn’t really blown the doors off just yet. Both guys still have work to do, neither guy is ready for the bigs just yet, and 2-3 starts is hardly a telling sample size. Anyway, its nice to see Outman is liked in the talent evaluation circles, but I still think Carlos gets the nod, at least until we have a significant 2008 sample worth analyzing.
Phuture Phillies 
A lefty with velocity is a rare thing…that alone is probably why they give him the edge. I like both players personally and we’ll probably see at least one of them in an emergency start before the end of the year. Unless the Phillies have an unusual run of good health in the pitching staff that is.
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I saw the comment as well and took it more as a compliment to Outman as opposed to a knock on Carrasco. Carrasco is widely considered to be in the 50-75 range of all prospects in baseball, to have Callis say Outman is in that ballpark now is great news.
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I’m not sure where Jim is getting this from either. Reports are that Carrasco has worked on a curve ball to go along with a plus fastball and change. His first 2 starts in AA have been solid to exceptional. How did these 2 fair during ST against major league batters? If I remember correctly Outman really struggled.
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I guess its also important to note that this was just a lightning round question and Callis went off the top of his head. Nevertheless, its an interesting debate, and theres obviously no right or wrong answer at this point.
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“Lightning round” mixed in with “i’m beginning to think…”
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Carrasco didn’t do well when promoted to Reading, but is now doing well at a very young age in AA. Outman looked a little better than Carrasco after last season’s promotion, but age/experience explains that. He has been ok so far this year, better than he was last season in AA. Outman gets a plus as a lefty and though older than Carrasco is age appropriate for AA.
I still go with Carrasco as the better prospect, but won’t be at all surprised if Outman precedes him into the major league rotation. The big thing is both of these guys are solid prospects. I don’t see either as a #1 starter, but both can develop to a #2/3/4 starter. Its very good to have two such quality pitchers, as well as Carpenter who, despite a slow start, is still likely to be a #3/4/5 major league starter.
When was the last time we had 3 starting pitching prospects this good at the AA level? Never? Castro has also shown promise, although I still think he winds up in the pen.
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…but disappointed in Biseius so far…who could have joined Carrasco and Outman in a push for ML appearance in ’08.
Also MIA from the likelies is Happ…with Mathieson MAYBE to show up in Aug or Sept.
Agree that Outman is the more likely to come up than Carrasco if only for his “maturity”…i.e., a little better chance of dealing with the BIG promotion than Carrasco.
Nevertheless, it would seem a good bet thast these two PLUS ?? are likely to be a part of next year’s staff.
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Is Castro still considered a genuine prospect? I just don’t know if I can see him as a Major league pitcher-starter or reliever. I hope he is, of course
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Yahoo Sports has Mathieson’s best case scenario as right around the All-Star break. Considering that he’s recovered very slowly from elbow surgery and the fact that he’s constantly been behind in his rehab schedule, your Aug/Sept guess is probably closer to the truth.
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Considering Castro’s velocity and young age (23 this year) I would think he’d definitely still be a prospect as at least a Lefty out of the pen if nothing else. He’s consistently killed leftys no matter what level he was at.
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I guess that I’m going to be the contrarian here who agrees with Callis. I think that the fact that Carrasco is 2 years younger balances out the fact against Outman that he is a righty (putting them on equal footing). I agree that this season thus far is far too small of a sample size- although I am encouraged that both pitchers seem to have settled into AA and are ever closer to the majors. The reason that I believe that Outman may be the better prospect by a hair (I think Outman could be a 2/3 while Carrasco I think profiles as a good #3 team). The stat that is most revealing to me is the k/9. Carrasco, other than his incredible 2006 season at Lakewood tends to hover in the mid-6 range in k/9. While his ability to get hitters out should not be underestimated, it does not appear that he has that put-away pitch that really seperates the good from average major league starters. Outman, while still in need of refinement in his command like many young pitchers, has consistently put up k/IP numbers. It’s a close call, but I have more belief that a pitcher will develop command than an out pitch. In any case, it’s a good sign that we are even having this debate as for the longest time it seemed like we could never have more than 1 blue-chip prospect at a time, now we have 3 or 4 pitchers who fit in that category.
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CMK15: I like yr thinking. It IS encouraging to have several guys likely to join the big club’s pitching staff…even in ’08…maybe toward season’s midpoint or in Aug/Sept…and certainly for ’09.
Note Castro’s outstanding effort today. His ERA is .60??
Also, for another small lefty pitcher with very good #s is Bastardo.
Don’t forget Savery. Should he keep pitching like recently we could see him move up to Reading to perform there. It’s a long shot, but he MIGHT even be seen in a Phils’ uni in Sept. Can Happ locate the K-zone? Without all those BBs he’d have a pile of MORE Ks…whereas now he continues to K more than 1/inn. I’d LOVE to see him succeed. He’d drive hitters crazy if he could throw Ks….and he’d be then great out of the pen. Hopin’
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i love this question! it is nice to fight over who is better instead of argue about why our farm sucked in the past. This has to be the best start to a minor league season for the phillies in a long time. they have prospects all over the place playing really well. even some of the non-big names like castro are lighting it up. That reading team is really enjoyable to watch. Golson is doing great. looking very comfortable, playing awesome defense, stealing bases and getting a few WALKS. Marson is playing great defense and hitting too. their pitching looks strong as well.
question to the group, when was the last time the reading phils had this many prospectes performing this well?
clearwater and lakewood are fun to watch too. but i am so pumped that our AA team has some real players. Not that they still don’t have things to work on, but they are producing big time.
– Castro still needs to cut down his walks, but his era is under 0.5
– Golson get more walks, but he is hitting .350 and playing awesome defense
– Marson looks like a great catching prospect at a young age
– Enough said on CC and Outman.
– Donald is playing well and is also a very nice prospect.
– I believe in Drew Carpenter. He will turn it around.
really fun stuff!
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The ’99 Reading Phillies had Rollins and Burrell. Burrell hit 28 HR in 417 AB that season with 79 BB. Also making an appearance that year? One Adam Eaton.
The 2001 team had Carlos Silva and Brett Myers in the rotation, with Marlon Byrd having his big season, posting a .934 OPS.
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as ive said just look at this team and its future. catcher ruiz, jaramillo, coste 1st howard, 2nd utley ss rollins donald 3rd cardenas lf burrell cf golson wirth rf victorino pitchers hamels, myers, kendrick, outman, carrasco, savery,bastardo, romero, lidge with the players in the weeds, happ, matheson, castro i have my doubts, plus the players im missing. it comes down to one thing open up the purse strings and keep our own. this is the best infield we will ever see. 2nd only to the big red machine all time.
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It seems like the consensus among Philly fan sites is that Carrasco’s ceiling is that of a #3 starter in the big leagues. I’m not sure what the basis for that is, but since Outman is left handed and is still “adjusting” to his mechanics, maybe he has a better ceiling?
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’99 was a long time ago 🙂
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****It seems like the consensus among Philly fan sites is that Carrasco’s ceiling is that of a #3 starter in the big leagues. I’m not sure what the basis for that is,****
That is basically the consensus among most MLB scouts to include both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. That’s what we’re basing it off of, I believe. A middle of the rotation guy isn’t something to scoff at considering that 4th or 5th starters are making $8 million a year these days (i.e. Adam Eaton)
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So is it reasonable to assume that the Callis would take Outman because he has a higher ceiling?
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I believe we need to wait for a couple of months into the minor lg season before we can more definity name our best & closest pitchers…such as Outman and Carrasco. Plus several others who labor throughout our pharm teams.
Waiting to evaluate these two:
Both have the potential to be #2s IMO. But Carrasco should be judged onbly when his learning that curve ball he is working on. We should note that his K/inns has IMPROVED this season…and likely because of that add’l pitch. So, given some more patient time –a couple months–and see if he keeps this superior pitching going…and if so, he should then be moved UP to AAA.
Outman has been working on his command (as HOPEFULLY Happ is too) and looks like he is confusing to hitters so with a bit better command plusw his quirky stuff, he too should be with AAA in a couple of months.
Both in preparation to aid the big club in Aug/Sept..??
And then there is Savery….
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