Rather than do a bunch of box score recaps, I wanted to instead talk about a few theoretical practices and things I’ve seen in comments over the last few days, as I think they are very important issues and have a direct impact on our farm system. Along those same lines, I wanted to kindly ask that we try and stay on topic within each post, as theres really no reason to be discussing whether the Phillies should re-sign Ryan Howard in a Clearwater Threshers related post. To combat this, I’ll make a post each day, even if its brief, to just quickly recap the action from the previous day, and then you can feel free to discuss any of the games from the current day in said post. So, if you want to discuss what happens in tonights games, you can do it here. Now, onto my musings
* The issue of whether to bring up Greg Golson was raised yesterday, and it was something I knew would happen. Golson is off to a nice start in Reading, but just last season, he posted an abysmal 49:2 strikeout to walk ratio at Reading. Golson seems, to me at least, like the type of guy who, if he gets it, is going to require a lot of minor league at bats, mainly because hes still raw. To date, Golson has just over 1700 pro at bats. If he finishes the season in the minors, he’ll have crossed over 2000 at bats, and we should know if hes figured it out. What he needs is to get regular at bats, not to sit on the bench. The only way he should possibly be called up is if he is going to start every game in CF. Chris Snelling is not a blue chip prospect, he’s a 4A type hitter, and if the Phillies were to lose him on waivers, it wouldn’t be the end of the world. If Golson truly is figuring it out, bringing him up only to sit on the bench and maybe start once a week won’t help his development. Not to mention, he will have to be added to the 40 man roster, he’ll burn up 1 option year, and his arbitration clock will start ticking. If he’s still hitting .320 and hes actually drawing some walks come July, and a major injury in the OF were to come up, then I can see bringing him up. But right now, he needs continued at bats.
* Another popular topic, which was a popular topic last year, is what we’re going to do with Adrian Cardenas. My thoughts now are the same as they were then; just leave him alone. His value is much higher as a 2B than a 3B or LF. He’s hitting, and he’s only in Clearwater, and he’s only 20. There’s zero need to rush him, and there’s also zero need to force a position switch at this point. He’s not major league ready, he likely won’t be for 2 more years. He doesn’t have to go on the 40 man roster for another 2 years after this year. Chase Utley has already made 4 errors this season, if his defense slips, he might be the one to change positions. Again, its a small sample size, but at the same time, there’s just no need to move Cardenas to a new position. If the Phillies do decide to trade him, his max value will come as a 2B. In 2 years, if it looks like Utley is staying at 2B, and Cardenas’ bat is forcing the Phillies to make move with him, they can then evaluate what other position he might be able to play.
* The Iron Pigs are not good……in fact, they stink like feet . I’ve seen some pretty clever nicknames popping up, from the Lead Pigs to the Stink Pigs. If you have a good one, by all means, share it here. While the team does suck, there are still a small handful of guys worth watching. Jason Jaramillo has only 4 hits in 29 AB, but 2 of them were home runs. Last year he had 6 HR in 435 AB.
* And finally, 1 interesting (to me at least) tidbit from each of our 4 affiliates
Lakewood: Non-prospect Jared Simon has made 5 appearances this season, all in relief, and has 3 wins and 1 loss. 4 decisions in 5 appearances is impressive. At this rate, he’ll go something like 30-10 in 46 games.
Clearwater: Prior to yesterday’s game, Joe Savery had walked 7 and struck out 9. Yesterday he walked only 1 and struck out 4 in 8 solid innings. More of that please.
Reading: Josh Outman and Fabio Castro have pitched a combined 23 innings, allowed 20 hits, 3 ER, 1 HR, and struck out 25, but they’ve also walked a combined 12 hitters. Walks will be what holds both of these guys back.
Lehigh Valley: 0-11. Seriously.
Phuture Phillies 
Agree Golson should be called up only if he is totally locked in and they plan to play him 4-5 days a week, if not start every day. Would not mind him sitting once or twice a week to see the game from the bench. Sit him next to Rollins and Moyer, etc. and tell him to listen.
I think Phils will only bring him up to start him. They want Werth, Taguchi and Snelling to do the job–hit and field well and do what they were hired for, to fill in during times like this. I would prefer that too. There is enoguh defense and hitting there to fill in the breach, but we will miss Vic’s speed in the OF and on bases.
Agree with your view on Cardenas. That said though, if he is hitting .330-.350 in June with few or no holes in his swing and a good approach, maybe promote him. I don’t believe in rushing, but you have to re-think if someone is dominating big time.
Cardenas adjusting to pro ball and becoming a dominant force at Advanced A level will really cement and enhance his value. Agree also that any position change should come when he is considered near-ready and a specific need is identified. That may be next year. You can bet some of next winter’s discussuions will focus on that issue.
On the Pigs, I’m thinking that as a team with a lot of veterans, they have collectively given in to the cold weather. I think they will hit and play closer to their baseball cards come May and June. Would not suprise me if they were near .500 by end of season. Most of those guys hitting .125 have had very productive minor league careers. Pressure to perform in new stadium may also have been a factor.
Question: What if Savery keep pitching like this into June?
Good to see Josh and Fabio showing they belong in AA. Fab has to show more consistent command and attach the zone. He will not pitch well in majors unless he attacks hitters confidently. Nibbling too much will not do it.
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Golson should not be called up. How would he ever react to a Roy Oswalt slider? Or a Johan Santana changeup? Or a John Smoltz slider? Can you say, “K”? I’m looking for him to face a good pitcher in AA first, not a top flight major leaguer. If you call Golson up before September, you burn an option, and the Phils may need all of them before it’s all said and done.
Savery must have thrown a beautiful game yesterday. I wonder what his pitch count was? 90 maybe. Lots of ground outs. I’m hoping he spends 1/2 year at each level and is ready for Philly next June/July 2009.
I’ve noticed Carrasco’s weight is listed at 215 lbs. Good, 180 lbs. is skinny.
It looks like Antonio Bastardo wants a promotion, too.
Hike that average, Matt Spencer.
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The only thing you said that I disagree with is that Cardenas has more value at 2B than at 3B. I think today 3B are at a greater premium than 2B. This assumes he can be as adequate a defensive 3B as 2B. I don’t think 2B is that hard to fill. There is a whole world of college (and HS) SS out there who are at SS because they are the best infielder on their team who are rated highly as prospects because of their bats and/or speed, but who are not good enough defensively to be major league SS. Guys like Harmon and likely Donald. Each draft is full of them. More of these guys are suited to move to 2B than to 3B. SS is a premium defensive position that I would not move a prospect from unless forced, assuming he is at least adequate defensively. But 2B just isn’t. It’s an important enough defensive position that I would not rush to move Cardenas to LF, but if the kid shows he can play 3B, I think that actually increases his value.
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We have to be real happy with the pitching at Reading and Clearwater. It will be a party day for the Lehigh Valley when Carrasco Outman and Castro get promoted. Also I would like to see Savrey in Reading by the middle of May, provided he throws similar to his last 2 starts between now and then. Only 3 walks last 15 IP.
Any word if Chiavacci at Lehigh could provide any help with the big club if needed. He had decent AAA number last year and Kendrick and Moyer may not make it that long.
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Agree on all points here. We have enough other adequate-to-good fill-in options within the system to start screwing with Golson’s development, including (as you pointed out elsewhere) Brandon Watson with the Stink Pigs and even Golson’s teammate Javon Moran.
Cardenas could be the guy who lands the Phillies a bona fide #3 starter by mid-season, though obviously the ideal would be if they could hold onto him.
I’m encouraged by the strong starts of Outman, Carrasco and Savery. Not sure what to make of Castro at this point. It’s not like the clock is ticking on him per se, but he seems like the exact same guy he was two years ago, with good stuff but no command. Intriguing and frustrating in roughly equal measure.
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Glad you agree with me on Golson.
The 3 guys pitching well yesterday should include drew Natlor who pitched 6 scoreless but tired in 7th. He looks like the real deal.
MIA: Garcia. Just a few inns pitched by him so far…like the author here, I believe that this season is the one where Garcia needs to show significant progress toward fulfilling his possibilities.
Though the minor lg pitchers have had some downsides, it is VERY encouraging to see the guys who look like our future staff doing so well.
On Savery: Yes, it should be “exciting” to us to see him get his command mojo working. The potential is enormous: keep this up and I see him going to Reading by June/July, and if he keeps it going there, he could reach the bigs MAYBE sometime THIS season. I say this because he is a colege draftee which means he’s had 2 more years of near pro-coached baseball than HS draftees. My only concern were that to happen is his lack of arm-strengthening innings pitched before the bigs.
On Cardenas: it would be OK to keep him at 2nd base EXCEPT thast it has been said that he is not a very decent fielder. If so, since middle-infielders MUST be good fielders, he fails THAT test. #3B Only if his arm suffices. No proof of that now.
Time factor? LF is probably the least demanding position in MLB. since his hitting is his main asset, I’d move him there…and not wait miuch longer. If he is attractive as a 2nd baseman (no…not w his fielding), he’s be juist as attractive for trading as a left fielder. He certainly not going to replace Utley who has become a superior fielder–his 4 Es notwithstanding–especially since Cardenas has those fielding shortcomings.
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Edgar Garcia has made his 2 starts thus far in the rotation (one start was technically a continued game) and I believe that he is scheduled to start his regular turn tomorrow, so he is not MIA.
Moving Cardenas at this point would be a huge mistake. Left-fielders have to be able to hit with power because anybody can play there (see Burrell, Pat). Cardenas’ value plummets with a move to LF. 3B is not the power position that it used to be as middle-infielders have developed some pop, so a move there (if he can make it) would not disturb me nearly as much. However, there is no evidence at this point that Cardenas cannot become an adequate 2B in the majors. If that point comes and he truly is a man without a position (and LF is the dumping ground for men without positions), then his value will be that of a 4th OF due to his lack of current and projectable power (he may be 20-25 but not 35). No need to rush that, LF can be learned in 4 days.
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There are far fewer 2B prospects in the minors than there are 3B prospects. Not all SS prospects just automatically move to 2B. Thats why his value is higher at 2B than it is at 3B.
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No reason to believe Cardenas CAN play an “adequate” 2b. Middle infielders MUSY be able to field WELL…not “adequately.” Mediocrity is NOT acceptable for a ML middle infielder. If he is kept as a 2b, his trade value is diminished brecause of his fielding inadequacies…which are unacceptable in middle inflielders.
OTOH. with no proof of his arm strength for the LOOOONG throw from 3rd, he seems not qualified for that position.
By the way, it’s my unmderstyanding that his hands are NOT the proiblem; it appears to be his lack of range and “alacrity.”
With these REALISTIC shortcomings, no way he plays 2b in the bigs (any obtaining team would move him away from 2b)…unless a minor miracle causes his body frame to change…calling Dr. Slimmer-Stretcher.
Facing reality is better than trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.
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Cardenas is not unathletic. Until he proves otherwise, I’d like to see him stay at 2B, then possibly move to 3B. A move to LF negates a good portion of his value.
The idea that an adequate fielder at 2B has negative or no value is laughable. Jeff kent was not even an adequate fielder, yet he was a positive value for his position due to his offense. Biggio was adequate at 2B, no more, and he’s going to the HoF.
Davey Lopes was an average defensive 2B who could never turn the DP. He won a world championship with the 70’s/80’s Dodgers and kicked the Phils’ butts in the NLCS twice.
Offense + defense = value. You can be average at one and still be a + player.
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What’s laughable is to believe that a ML team would be pleased w a barely adequate middle infielder…
Should he fulfill his superior hitting, then a team would come out ahead if they put him in LF so they wouldn’t have to pay any penalty for his mediocre 2b-ing…while still getting the benefit of his offense.
That’s the way better GMs think.
Balancing the possibilities, I’d not insist the guy remain at 2b…rather find the place where his pluses and minuses balance best. There is likely less chance that a left fielder will mess up games more than a 2nd baseman…over a season…concerning fielding.
Now…if he can’t take to LF……………….
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Let’s not forget…Cardenas is 20yrs old and playing single A…he is in the minors to improve his game for maybe 2010 or 2011 ML debut…lets calm down about Cardenas and his fielding ability until we get closer to 2010…
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Art, you get way too emotional and wound up over things. Cardenas is not the butcher you’re making him out to be. Have you ever actually seen him play the position in a game setting?
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My impression is that Cardenas is a solid avg fielder, makes all the routine plays, with a little bit of athleticism, but won’t wow you too much. He is also a big-trunked guy, pysique-wise. So he looks like a 3B and his avg arm might play OK there. Lots of 3Bmen have done well catching everything that comes to them but without a ton of range or diving acrobatics and avg throws across the diamond.
He also looks like he could be an avg or adequate 2Bman, where his arm and bat will play better and, as has been said, will increase his value if indeed he is OK fielding and hitting well. LF is also an option, if he cannot field the IF positions. I doubt that though. They don’t put kids at SS in HS if they can’t pick the ball pretty well, even if they hit great.
We won’t get a better read on his fielding for another year or so. And that’s about that time when they will have to commit him to a specific position, if indeed they keep him. Time to relax about Cardenas. He is at a good position to develop and there are options. It’s all good.
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Where is that Carlos (Charles) Manuel Roa…how can he miss with that name ?
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