Much like the big-league club, this year’s Reading Phillies are off to a so-so start. At 4-4, they’re in the middle of the pack in the Eastern League Southern Division. They started off hot, taking three of four from the Altoona Curve to open the season, but have cooled down and lost their last three straight games.
By now, I’m sure most of you have heard about OF Greg Golson hitting the tar out of the ball. After 8 games, Golson’s batting a tidy .323 with three doubles, a triple, and seven steals, all while tying for the team lead in runs scored with five. It looks as if his winter spent with Charlie Manuel has helped Golson up his game. However, before we sing his praises and worship him as the savior of the Phils minor-league chain, it’s important to note that his OBP is only .344, while his K-BB ratio is 8-1 on the young season. Golson’s going to have to get on base more often before he can really display one of his most impressive tools — his speed. His season is certainly one to keep an eye on as he looks to possibly earn a call-up during September.
As far as other hitting prospects go, shortstop Jason Donald is hitting .350 for the year with a double, a triple, and 3 RBI. However, as is the case with Golson, his K-BB ratio is awfully high (6-1). However, he’s second on the team in SLG% at .500. Leading the team in SLG% is OF Jeremy Slayden. Slayden has one home run on the season to go along with two doubles, a triple, and 3 RBI. He’s been somewhat of a mystery during his tenure in the Phillies system after being selected in the 8th round of the 2005 Draft out of Georgia Tech. He’s just one of many Phillies prospects at double-A that have the potential to really turn around the fortunes for the Phils minor-league system.
Finally for hitting prospects, C Lou Marson has been having an impressive season thus far. He’s batting .304 with two runs scored, two doubles, and 2 RBI. He’s shown the most patience at the plate of any Reading Phillie, with a 7-5 K-BB ratio.
As far as pitching prospects go, starter Josh Outman has been the most impressive so far. In two starts spanning 11 innings, Outman is 0-1 with a 1.64 ERA and a K-BB ratio of 13-6. Despite those solid numbers, opponents are hitting .292 against him. His WHIP currently sits at 1.81, so it’s fairly apparent that he not only needs to find the strike zone, but also needs to induce more ground balls and trust his defense behind him in order to keep runners off base. We all know Outman’s got electric stuff, so hopefully he can lower his WHIP and keep striking guys out. However, it’s early in the season and he could just need a little refining in his mechanics.
Nipping at Outman’s heels for most impressive pitcher on the team is talented righty Carlos Carrasco. CC has started one game and lasted five innings, striking out 7 while walking 2 and only giving up 3 hits. His ERA currently sits at 1.80, and batters are hitting just .188 against him. For a pitcher some of us lost a little faith in last season, this is an excellent way to start the year for Carlos. As one regular has pointed out, when Carrasco gets promoted, there tend to be growing pains and his stats fall off from what is expected, then he goes on to start the season back on track. With any luck, Carrasco will continue this trend and probably be one of the first in line to be called up should the big team need an emergency starter.
On the other end of things, starter Andrew Carpenter has been among the biggest disappointments. With two games started and 9.2 IP, he’s 1-1 with a 6.52 ERA and has given up 16 hits on top of 4 walks, which puts his WHIP at 2.17. He’s given up 7 earned runs while only striking out 6 batters. Methinks this is an injury, but without being able to make it to any games, it’s difficult to tell. Keep an eye on him as the season progresses, he might be up for a DL stint.
Phuture Phillies 
Given Golson’s history and profile, I’ll take a .344 lifetime OBP from him with power, stolen bases and defense.
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Forgot to mention Fabio Castro. He had a no hitter going for 6.1 and finished up with a seven inning, one hitter today. Pitching coach Tom Filer on the post game show said Castro used his fastball and change up to set up his out pitch to right handed hitters which was the best curve ball that Filer has seen him throw to rack up 9 K’s.
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Patrick Overholt may be more of a prospect as the season progresses. So far he seems to be under the radar of most of
the pundits.
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Nice writeup Rob, thanks a bunch.
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RJ Swindle has not given up a hit or a walk in his 2 appearances (4.1 ip) and has 4ks. A LHP throwing strikes and not walking guys, this guy should be gaining prospect status
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Golson may get a call up prior to September if he continues to rake and Victorino is out for an extended stretch.
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What can Snelling do that Golson can’t? Why are the Phillies always so hesitant to give thier young guys a chance. Golson should have gotten the call instead of Snelling. Also….can Dominic Brown jump the the majors next year because I don’t think Victorino is the answer we all thought he could be….I miss Rowand!
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My guess would be that because of Golson’s success they don’t want to mess with him for now since it’s still so early in the season. I was going to say that Gillick probably wanted to make a gesture to Snelling since he signed him, and probably told him he’d get a shot to play on the big club this year. That way future free agents will feel like the can trust the front office, same way how you usually don’t trade someone you just signed. Though since Gillick won’t be back who knows, maybe it was Amaro’s idea.
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Golson seems to be on track to finally ‘getting it’. I wouldn’t throw him to the wolves right away.
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This lefty Swindle has had a strange career, after being drafted by Boston in ’04 and going 1.94era 51inn 42H 4W and 56K he gets released and is in the Northern league in ’05. Then is signed by the Yankees in ’06 and at high A goes 0.61era 44inn 35H 5W and 46K and gets released again and ends up in an Independent league again where the Phils sign him in ’07. All this guy does is put up low era’s and great w/k ratios and gets cut. The only negatives I’ve read about him is that at age 25 he pitches like Jamie Moyer: 60mph sweeping curveball(where he gets his K’s) and a 79-83mph fastball. I guess Boston and NY never thought he would ever get major leaugers out with that junk but so far he’s been successful against AA hitters and it can’t hurt to let him continue up the ladder til he fails.
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It’s a long season, Golson does not have a long track record of success. He would have to rip the cover off the ball for at least another couple of months to merit a promotion. Personally, I think if he plays well, he’ll get a call up in early July and if he continues to do well, he might get a late August call-up to the majors. But that’s only if he continues to do what he’s done so far and that’s no guarantee.
As bad as the Lead Pigs are (have you ever seen a worse AAA team – they’re positively putrid), below that stench lies some talent at AA and below (actually, I think Happ, who is at AAA, has talent – he’s trying to be too fine and is walking too many batters, but I still think he’s not far off from working it out). Golson, Outman, Castro, Carassco, and Overholt are all encouraging and I think Donald and Harman could begin stepping forward soon. At high A, Savery, Bastardo and Cardenas are looking like studs, and at low A, there seems to be a whole lot of good talent. If you get a second, just look at the height and weight listings at Lakewood. It is clear that the organization is attempting to draft big, strong, capable atheletes (don’t look now, but there’s a very good chance that Ryan Howard’s successor is among them – I hate to say it, but I think it’s true) – and I think, sooner or later, it’s going to bring them some solid dividends (Brown, Taylor, Rizzotti, Spender, Mattair, Bolt – it’s quite an athletic group).
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I’m as excited as anyone with what Golson is doing but just because he has had a hot week or two, does not mean he’s going to take the bigs by storm. I hope they just keep him where hes at let him stay in the groove he’s in and if he continues to play like he has move him up to the pigs. Let him gain more confidence and not destroy that by throwing him to the wolves because he had a hot couple of weeks
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Golson is not ready for Philadelphia. After his mid-season single jump promotion last year, he flat out stank at Reading. He has started this season well with the bat, but he is starting at the level he finished at last season. That is a far cry from being ready for a double jump. He is far from a finished product. He dropped a ball on Saturday that he should have caught and that any decent major league CF has got to catch. He does not walk nearly enough. He needs repetition and lots of it at the same level to ingrain the improved hitting technique. Two weeks of improved play is not enough. He is also at the stage of his development that he needs to play every day.
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Golson is getting a lot of love, which is great, but let’s not enshrine him on Ashburn Alley just yet. Yes, his flashes of brilliance are beguiling but not nearly enough to overlook his major show-stopping weakness: plate discipline.
Personally, I don’t want to see Golson with a Phillies jersey on until he recognizes pitches better, becomes a decent situational hitter and allows the game to come to him. Imagine a lineup with 2 guys (Golson, Feliz) OBP at or below .300. No, that would just ruin the offense most nights. I won’t mind Golson showing up in the fall when the rosters expand, but in an emergency I’d far rather see Brandon Watson or Snelling than Golson.
Frankly I think Golson is two years away from being an effective offensive player in the Show, though I hope he proves me wrong. The numbers that matter for him now are OBP, K/BB rate, and pitches per AB. The power and speed will be there as long as he focuses on working the count.
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to cromp who do you think would be the best defensive replacement right now, Snelling? thats one of the reasons for minor leagues to replace temporary injuries. thats why donald should have replaced rollins, not to stay up but their better than the alternative. by the way triple a is the last place to send a hot prospect. all your good major leaguers come from double a. if a prospect is at triple a ala jaramillo their either holding him back or going to trade him. the reason to hold a player back is to deny him service time, but im sure you know that. i know howard does.
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John from philly
I agree with you that golson would be a better defensive replacement then snelling, Now i want to point out that there is a difference between a prospect and a minor leaguer. If you want to bring a minor leaguer like watson up to be a defensive replacement fine, but the purpose of a prospect is not to waste his potential but shuffling him around just for the purposes of having him play defense for two innings. You especially don’t want to take a guy like golson who is just figuring it out at the plate and sit him on the bench where he would not be getting any at bats, just so you can have him come in late in games. Also to bring Golson up now as was already stated you beginning ticking his arbitration clock on a guy is clearly not ready to be an everday big leaguer.
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Checked out the Blue Claws all of this weekend against the Shorebirds. Overall, it was a tough series. The Phillies lost 3-1 in the opener and lost a squaeaker 2-1 on a wild pitch with two outs in the 9th inning Saturday. Sunday they salvaged a game to head back home.
You can see that there is a lot of talent on this team. Joel Naughton looks like he could be a factor as a catching prospect. He looked comfortable at the plate and has a cannon for an arm from behind the dish. Moose Mattair struggled a bit, but he is as defensively sound as they come — akin to Scott Rolen. Freddy Galvis has a lot of raw ability. Personally, I feel he may be as good a fielder as Jimmy Rollins right now, but his bat needs a lot of work, but he’s only 19 or 20.
I was most impressed with Michael Durant who hit an absolute bomb on Saturday night for the Claws’ only run. Dominick Brown looks like he will be 30-30 threat if/when he makes it to the big club. He reminds one of a very young Darryl Strawberry in his stance, etc.
One unheralded name that doesn’t get much coverage is Matthew Rizzotti. He’s a 22 year-old first basemen out of Manhattan College. He is very sound defensively as a first sacker and he seems to have an excellent approach at the plate, laying off bad pitches and making pitchers pay when they come in the zone. After the weeekend in Salisbury, he’s hitting .292 and he looks like he will put up some decent power numbers this year.
Any thoughts?
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cromp some good points. by the way everyone moans and groans about the phils minor leagues but name me another team with a homegrown catcher, 1st, 2nd, ss, lf, 1 and 2 possibly 3 starters, and a boatload of arms ready to come up. 2009 starting rotation hamels, myers, kendrick, outman, carrasco with bastardo and savery ready. if this team is kept together look out!
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I was at the first game of lakewoods series with the shorebirds. Brown did look good. I was hoping to see Mattair have better AB’s. I was glad I got to see a nice double down the left field line by Myers. I thought the umps were terrible. The Shorebirds first run scored by a guy who was clearly caught stealing second but called safe. The strike zone for both clubs was very inconsistent. I was disappointed the claws couldn.t get more going against a club with a defense as poor as what I saw for the shorebirds. They even had trouble throwing the ball around the infield after an out.
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Last night I listened on the Harrisburg station carrying the R-Phils/Senators game while watching ESPN and Manny Ramirez put on a show for the third straight game. Here’s some things I heard: The first time up at bat, Andrew Carpenter didn’t run hardly at all on an infield groundout. The second time up, he singled between 1st and 2nd, hardly ran, and was thrown out by rightfielder Joge Padilla. That’s embarassing. I think Andrew needs a talking to.
His fastball was not fast, and the announcers stated he isn’t going to miss many bats with it. He was throwing his changeup and fooling hitters with it initially, but with the speed of his fastball, they eventually caught up with both pitches. I heard no mention of his splitter. Maybe Arbuckle took it away like he did with Floyd’s curveball. Dope. Carpenter better do something different, or he isn’t going to survive in AA at the rate he’s going. Maybe he’s out of shape as his weight was listed at 245 lbs by Scott Lauber in a March article. This is disappointing.
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to cromp, have you seen the reading team in person ineed a in person scouting report since i have not been able to get there. outman,carrasco any one else who may be ready.
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Unfortunately I have not, would definately like to get out there and lakewood sometime this season, I’ll leave the pigs off my intinary though………….
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cromp couldnt agree more . is it me or does baseball america miss the boat on rating minor league systems. as a baseball historian the phils infield is the 2nd best of all time behind only the big red machine. when i have time ill post some of the facts of my book regarding bb i think everyone will enjoy them.
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Hey interesting tidbit from Jim Callis’s chat today on ESPN, someone (from here probably) asked him who he thought was the better prospect at this juncture Carrassco or Outman, Callis said he thought it had to be Outman at this point. He also commented how he liked Outman’s name, so he’s got that goin for him. Which is nice.
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As a lefty, Outman probably does have a brigher future…assuming he learns control.
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to ne philly phan i enjoyed your well put together web site, the only disagreement i would have is your belief in bb america. theve always rated the phils system low but name me a team with howard,who will be signed, utley and rollins ruiz, burrell with outman carrasco savery bastardo cardenas and jaramillo waiting. the system is much better than bb america projects. you would think by now they would get the point and lets not forget the best young pitcher in bb hamels and remember the kid who should be here now while victorino heals, greg golson
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First of all, thanks on the website. Its still rough but its a work in progress right now. I was very happy to stumble upon this very excellent site. I think a big part of the reason that the Phillies current minor league system is so lowly rated has to do with two key factors.
#1. Most of the Phillies star players are no longer prospects. While the system produced Utley, Rollins, Burrell, Victorino, Howard, Ruiz, Myers, and Hamels all of them are now established MLB players and there are no comparable players ready to break out in the next year. Most of the Phillies prospects are still question marks or a couple of years away from being MLB regulars.
#2. We have a good number of “solid” prospects but no superstar “Evan Longoria” type prospects in the hopper. Our best two prospects (Cardenas and Carrasco) are not sure fire All-stars like some other organizations.
We have a bevy of very young talent especially in the low A/High A levels that have a very good chance of contributing and our AA roster has a decent number of propects as well.
A third factor could be the injury bug that is knocking down our prospects. How many pitching prospects have had TJ surgery in the past year, 3? 4?. That is why I feel that Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus seem so down on our system. We’ve essentially already harvested our best players and we’re a couple years away from another similar winfall.
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How is Jason Donald doing? I know he had a lacerated hand, but then I saw that he did some pinch hitting and then he was out of the lineup again today even. I hope he is alright, I really like his game and I think he could really help out the big club in the next couple of years. Any info would be great! Thanks!
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Castro has great stuff
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to anonymous , castro has no movement on his fastball, its a shame.
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Hey i just notice there hasn’t been a weekly post for reading in a while, I was looking for a place to post about Marson who is a having a monster game so far today in 3 AB’s he has 3 hits, a HR, and RBI’S……. Looking good for Marson maybe pushing ruiz next year, okay just a possibility for next year but if he keeps this up it shoulkd happen sooner then later
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lets keep this staff together there so good. as i wrote the purpose of a minor league team is to funnell players to the big team, or if there blocked trade them. no other reason. if they cant put together a package for blanton there not trying. you have 4 catchers, pick 2 trade the others you have an infielder cardenas who will never see the light of day hear. trade him, remember donald is our 3rd baseman of the future. you have pichchers all over the place. bring up carrasco to fill adam the flamethrowers eatons spot. bring up one of the lefties for the pen so romeros arm doesnt fall off . happ, ,yeah i know hes a starter but at this level you go where they say. swindell, and definately keep bastardo. if their going to resign burrell keep golson at reading if not bring him up now since he,ll be your full time lf next year. trade outman, savery or one of the big prospects at lakewood, not naylor, or brown. so now you have a staff of of hamels myers, blanton, moyer and carrasco you have a pen of lidge, romero, gordon if he can make it, madson, happ, kendrick, durbin relutantly and condrey for now. all youve traded are outman, or savery cardenas who has no where to go marson for blanton. you still have bastardo, naylor golson and the various stars to be at lakewood. and if billy beane demands carrasco than you know you have a winner.
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Almost Memorial Day and Greg Golson is still raking! 5-6 today with 5 rbi’s, 3 runs, and a stolen base.
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After today’s game Golson leads the EL in hits and is third in hitting at .331. Golson is hitting .470 when he puts the ball in play. After today’s grand slam Marson is 7th in batting average at .325 and is tied for the league lead in OBP.
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Video of Marson’s Grand slam over the 400 ft sign to dead center:
http://www.readingphillies.com/index.shtml
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