As the minor league season kicks off and the rest of the phuturephillies team begins to flex their muscle with reports from their respective affiliates, I’m going to shift my writing to more analytical pieces, and for the next 2 months, I’m going to focus a lot of energy on the draft. My goal is to again have a Q/A with Jim Salisbury as we get closer to draft day, and also to start looking at potential draftees. I know there are a few big draft fans here, so hopefully we can get some interaction going on that front, even though its still 2 months away. The Phillies first few draft picks look like this;
#24
#34
#51
#71
#102
#109 (supplemental pick after 3rd round for failing to sign Workman)
So, with 6 picks in the first 109, the Phillies have a chance to add a lot of quality, the question, as it always is, will they be willing to spend? More below the fold..
If what Jim Callis is hearing happens to be true, more teams this year, possibly 20-24 out of the 30 teams, are going to be more willing to break slot in the draft, especially in the first few rounds. The Phillies lack a top 10-15 pick, and if fewer guys slide due to price tag, it would be pointless to profile guys like Yonder Alonso, Pedro Alvarez and Aaron Crow. So instead, I’m going to exclude the guys I’m fairly certain will be gone by #24 and instead focus on guys who might be attainable. I’ll start off today with 2 guys I really like, and I’ll write more on other guys in the future as I have time to sift through information.
The first guy I really like is RHP Jack Armstrong, a high school senior from Florida. That link takes you to his scouting report via minorleaguebaseball.com. There is a small video clip of him pitching, so you can get the idea of what his delivery looks like. I’m going to eventually put the video up here, but for now, that will do. I love his frame, he’s already 6’7, 200 lbs as a high school senior. He has low 90’s heat with plenty of reason to believe he can add 2-3 mph. More importantly, he gets good movement on his pitches and throws on a steep downward angle, which should lead to lots of ground balls. The only negative is that he jerks his head on his follow through, but its a minor issue and one that can probably be worked out. The Phillies love projectable righties, and Armstrong fits the bill. Baseball America didn’t even rank him in their Top 100 high school seniors list back in February, while PGCrosschecker has him at #34 nationally. It would be nice to see him slip into the 3rd round, but if he has a big spring, I think we might need to pop him at 34 to get him.
The other guy I like a lot is another pitcher, LHP Brett DeVall, also a high school senior from Florida. DeVall has a smooth delivery, already has an 89-91 mph fastball, and more importantly, has a good changeup. I’m a sucker for prep pitchers with good changeups, as it is normally the pitch that holds back pitchers from reaching the highest level. His curveball is a bit raw, but has plenty of promise, and his 6’4, 220 lb frame is ideal, offering some projection but also durability. Keith Law did a writeup on DeVall this past weekend, which you can read here, if you have ESPN Insider. Excerpt
DeVall had been on a tear coming into this game and held that form for two-plus innings before sliding. He works heavily off his 89-91 mph four-seamer, typically in the upper half of the zone. He has a breaking ball that he calls a slider but looked more like a curveball to those of us behind the plate. It has a short downward break, and DeVall threw some that had good depth, but overall he didn’t command the pitch.
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His arm works well and his delivery is strong; he stays over the rubber and explodes forward with a long stride, with a little bit of length in his arm action behind his body. At 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, he has plenty of room to add some velocity before he reaches the majors. He’s committed to Georgia.
Good stuff. Keith ranked him #17 among HS seniors, Baseball America has him at #12 among HS seniors, and PCG had him at #11. It seems we’d have to grab him at 24, if he makes it that far, but in the early going, he’s at the top of my wishlist.
Phuture Phillies 
I know JE likes Lobstein. I kind of prefer a college bat at 24. Beckham and Posey have both their way out of our range. I like Alonso but he’s a longshot. I like Havens and Ike Davis and frankly Darnell is starting to play his way into consideration as well. Then I want HS pitchers with a safe signable college player at 109
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I hope we get them both.
I hope we draft top Pitching over slot for the first 5 picks, and then draft a 3B man at #109.
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If they loosen the purse strings, it will complete the repair of our minors in Gillick’s last year with us.
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Cole, DeVall, Armstrong could happen in the first 3 picks if the Red Sox do not nab DeVall.
Pipe Dream.
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SirAlden, I agree that the top 5 picks should all be pitchers unless there’s a position player on the board that slipped way down and just can’t be passed up. And, yes, busting slot would be a huge help.
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I think at 24 and 34, we have to take the best available player. It would be nice to find an elite, college 3B there, but its doubtful one falls into our lap. You can never have enough pitching, so if the best available is a pitcher, thats the way we have to go.
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Perhaps not an elite 3B at 24 or 34 but the way this draft is setting up, the Phillies could find appropriate value in a college 3B at 24 or 34 this year more than in any other year I can remember. Havens, Darnell, Gillespie or Wallace would be fair value in those spots. I am hoping that the first two picks are a HS pitcher and a college bat.
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I think Wallace is a 1B only as a pro. He’s a good athlete, but he’s too big for 3B and too slow in his lower half. That said, he’s a masher, and if you are in the camp of “Howard will be traded eventually”, then drafting a pure hitting 1B isn’t the worst idea, considering the complete lack of legit 1B prospects in our system.
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Pitchers are nice but somewhere in the draft we need guys with some pop. It seems like a glaring weakness in our farm. Though we have CBP, we still need guys to have the power to knock a few out.
I am all for taking the best player available in our first few picks, but we need power-hitting guys too.
Also I have been looking up thess mock drafts people have made and alot of them have the Phillies taking Shooter Hunt. Umm WHAT! Is that realistic?
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That’s not realistic at all. I think Hunt ends up in the top 10, unless he really falls apart in the next 2 months. Mock drafts at this point are useless. Heck, most of them done a week before the draft are useless.
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What do you think of Tulane”s Shooter Hunt? He is a good righty pitcher with good upside
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Yeah thats who I was talking about in my comment right above yours. He’s a Top 10 pick, no way he falls to 24.
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I had an interesting thought that I don’t know if anyone has ever looked into or talked about… but then I haven’t been on this site for that long and someone could have mentioned it or it might just be entirely self-evident or I might be totally wrong and I might sound like a jackass… but…..
Everyone is always talking about how the Phillies should bust slot more like the Tigers… but the thought crossed my mind that, does busting slot on one player force you to bust slot on all of your players and hurt you in the long run? Like, if I’m the agent of a HS pitcher who gets drafted in the second round by the Tigers, wouldn’t I claim my guy isn’t signable so that the Tigers would field me offers above slot? And in the long run wouldn’t that reputation give agents and players a complete upper hand in signing bonus negotiations? The Tigers might bust slot so often now because they HAVE to because they already gave themselves the reputation for doing it in the first place. Vicious cycle.
Once again, its just speculation and I honestly have no knowledge of how this stuff works and don’t claim to.
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Here’s a mock draft I found on the Red Sox board…..
1. (TB) Tim Beckham – SS, Griffin HS (GA)
2. (PITT) Pedro Alvarez – 3B, Vanderbilt
3. (KC) Aaron Crow – RHP, Missouri
4. (BALT) Brian Matusz – LHP, San Diego
5. (SF) Justin Smoak – 1B, South Carolina
6. (FLA) Eric Hosmer – 1B, American Heritage HS (FL) (Boras)
7. (CIN) Tanner Scheppers – RHP, Fresno State
8. (CWS) Yonder Alonso – 1B, Miami
9. (WAS) Kyle Skipworth – C, Patriot HS (CA)
10. (HOU) Tim Melville – RHP, Wentzville Holt HS (MO)
11. (TEX) Gordon Beckham – SS, Georgia
12. (OAK) Jacob Thompson – RHP, Virginia
13. (STL) Christian Friedrich – LHP, Eastern Kentucky
14. (MIN) Shooter Hunt – RHP, Tulane
15. (LAD) Gerrit Cole – RHP, Orange Lutheran HS (CA) (Boras/LA buys him out of his UCLA commitment)
16. (MIL) Brett Hunter – RHP, Pepperdine
17. (TOR) Brett DeVall – LHP, Rutherford HS (FL)
18. (NYM) Buster Posey – C, Florida State
19. (CHC) Joshua Fields – RHP, Georgia
20. (SEA) Aaron Hicks – OF, Wilson HS (CA)
21. (DET) Alex Meyer – RHP, Greensburg HS (IN)
22. (NYM) Ethan Martin – 3B, Stephens County HS (GA) (projects as a RHP)
23. (SD) Isaac Galloway – OF, Los Osos HS (CA)
24. (PHI) Ryan Perry – RHP, Arizona
25. (COL) Jordan Danks – OF, Texas
26. (ARI) Brett Wallace – 1B, Arizona State
27. (MIN) Jemile Weeks – 2B, Miami
28. (MFY) Reese Havens SS, South Carolina
29. (CLE) Allan Dykstra – 1B, Wake Forest
30. (BOS) Kyle Long – LHP, St. Anne’s-Belfield HS (VA)
In the mix (in no particular order):
Cole St. Clair – LHP, Rice
Petey Paramore – C, Arizona State
Brandon Crawford – SS, UCLA
Tyson Ross – RHP, California
Luke Burnett – RHP, Louisiana Tech
Harold Martinez – SS/3B, Braddock HS (FL)
Cody Satterwhite – RHP, Mississippi
Daniel Webb – RHP, Heath HS (KY)
Sonny Gray – RHP, Smyrna HS (TN)
Dennis Raben – OF/1B, Miami
Jake Thompson – RHP, Wilson HS (CA)
Jay Austin – OF, North Atlanta HS (GA)
Kyle Lobstein – LHP, Coconino HS (AZ)
Casey Kelly – SS, Sarasota HS (FL)
Kyle Russell – OF, Texas
Lance Lynn – RHP, Mississippi
Scott Green – RHP, Kentucky
Jarret Martin – LHP, Centennial HS (CA)
Michael Palazzone – RHP, Lassiter HS (GA)
Chris Carpenter – RHP, Kent State
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Interesting, but I think much of that is off the mark, to be honest.
San Fran won’t take a 1B. Lobstein will likely be gone before we even pick, I think he’s the #1 prep LHP available, along with DeVall.
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Perry has been pitching much better of late but in the first round I’m not particularly interested in a college relief pitcher with a 4.26 ERA.
If the draft were held today I think Buster Posey would go Top 10.
If the draft broke exactly that way, I think I’d be interested in Lobstein, then Tyson Ross, Havens, Wallace and Darnell
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Squire, I posted this on BSG, but take a look at Ryan Flaherty and compare him to Havens. I think I like Flaherty a bit more, and see them as pretty similar pro players. Curious to hear your thoughts.
Also, a few other notes on the mock. Posey is definitely gone in the first 15 picks. Harold Martinez is slumping this spring, but I think he’ll still go in the back of the first round. Sonny Gray is a first rounder for me too. I don’t see any way we take a reliever in the first round.
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I don’t see myself as particularly good at swing analysis (except in particularly ugly ones) so I tend to rely more at performance/stats, etc. and so that’s why I like Havens a little better. I’d be OK with Flaherty with either of our 2nd rounders though.
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June is a big moth for the future of this franchise. My fear that they will defer to the Commissioner’s office and sign only 2 or 3 of the six top picks. It seems to me that the Phillies use the signing bonus structure recommended by the Commissioner’s office as a type of salary cap
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