I was lucky enough to get in contact with prospect guru Bryan Smith at Baseball Prospectus and he was kind enough to answer some questions regarding Phillies prospects. Before joining the prospect coverage at Baseball Prospectus, Bryan wrote about the minor leagues for SI.com, Baseball Analysts and the Hardball Times. To read all of his work, click on over here. Full interview below the fold

1. If you had to put the Phillies into the Top 3rd, Middle 3rd, or Bottom 3rd in terms of farm systems, right now, where would they rank? Do you see them trending upward, downward, or kind of in a holding pattern?

I think the Phillies are in the bottom third, as losing Kyle Drabek really eliminates high-ceiling talents in the system beyond Carlos Carrasco. It was a tough loss and I think Kyle will bounce back, but its impacts on the system strength are significant. I think the system is trending up after a good draft, where I love what Marti Wolever did. In back-to-back years Wolever found really good, high-end arms in the middle of the round, and then the balance this June of high school players (D’Arnaud, Mattair and hopefully Workman) and college players Mach) created a really nice mix. Once the draft starts to make the impact I believe it will, and once the fruits of their international labor start to pay off their system will rise right up.

2. Have you noticed any major changes from the Ed Wade era to the Pat Gillick era? Are they positive changes or negative changes?

Not significantly in the player development department, because for the most part, the same people are still in place. Wolever and Mike Arbuckle are still in the organization and good people to have in place. I think the biggest difference might be more of a willingness to turn to young players, which is symbolized by Gillick’s first move as General Manager: finding a spot for Ryan Howard. Since then he’s also made room for Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels when they proved ready, and was quick to turn to a guy like Kyle Kendrick. That willingness to take what the farm system gives you is a step in the right direction.

3. Thoughts on our top prospect Carlos Carrasco? He’s holding his own in AA at age 20, the strikeout numbers aren’t where you’d love to see him, but he seems to be grinding it out. Where does he fit in among all minor league pitching prospects in your opinion?

Oh, Carlos is going to be fine. I think Double-A has probably been a wake up for him, as he learns how to best set up advanced hitters given his arsenal. My biggest concern is the command numbers he’s had at the level, as he’s had very few starts with less than two walks. If he commands his fastball well and can change speeds with his change, Carlos is going to be fine. He’s just a real good prospect that profiles as a no. 2 or 3 pitcher for the Phillies.

4. On the other side, our best position prospect looks like Adrian Cardenas. He’s sporting a .768 OPS in the Sally at age 19, certainly not embarrassing himself, and his .833 OPS away from Lakewood’s spacious confines would seem to be a reason for optimism. How would you evaluate his first full season of pro ball? Also, it’s already been reported that Assistant GM Mike Arbuckle doesn’t think he has the tools to play 3B, and doesn’t see him as an OF. Do you agree? With Chase Utley entrenched at 2B, he doesn’t seem to have anywhere to go,
based on Arbuckle’s comments.

The offense side of the coin does look bleak for the Phillies, but landing Cardenas in the draft last year was a coup. A teenage middle infielder hitting .289/.344/.416 is pretty rare, and I think BP’s Kevin Goldstein nailed his 2B rankings by slotting Cardenas second at the position behind only Matt Antonelli (drafted ahead of Cardenas in the 2006 draft). But you bring up a good point, James, as second baseman don’t have big futures in this organization. Furthermore, Cardenas’ next-most natural position is shortstop, where he is fringe-average and still blocked by Jimmy Rollins. I think the outfield would be a real stretch for Cardenas given his weak arm and mediocre speed, but I don’t think the arm is bad enough for third base to be impossible. I think a team that employs Abraham Nunez at third would have to consider Cardenas at the position, but he really profiles as a top 10 second baseman, so his best value could be on the trade market. Expect the Phillies to not worry about this situation for another year and a half, and they shouldn’t.

5. One of my favorite arms in the system is Josh Outman. He still has some control concerns, but he seems to have gotten better as the season has progressed in terms of BB/9, and he’s now at AA. How would you rate him as a pitching prospect, both in our system, and among lefties in the minors?

I like Outman a lot, and he’s probably fourth in this system behind Carrasco, Cardenas and Joe Savery. The Phillies deserve a lot of credit for this, because they really reinvented Outman, adding ticks to his fastball and rehauling his breaking ball. Outman was absolutely superb in High-A, with a 2.04 ERA in the 115 innings following his first poor start. His consistency was most impressive, but occasionally his command flares up, probably the result of over-throwing. Remember this is a guy that is throwing harder than he ever has, so I think he’s still learning. I’m hoping his Double-A struggles — and I worry more about the home runs than the walks –are a result of missing pitches that he’ll soon tighten up, and doing so in August would really improve his winter rankings.

6. Mike Costanzo is a polarizing figure among Phillies minor league fans. Some aren’t worried too much by his high K and error numbers and his struggles against lefties, some see him as a fringe major leaguer at best, probably in the OF. What’s your take on him?

It doesn’t surprise me that Costanzo is polarizing, as I think that’s the product of an organization that is only missing a third baseman offensively and a player that has value but looks bad often. Players like Costanzo rarely become fan favorites, as his strikeouts will grow old quickly for Phillies fans. But if you can accept the strikeouts when understanding the value of his walks and home runs, Costanzo becomes tolerable. The biggest problems for Costanzo is his defense and inability to hit left-handed pitching. I think the Phillies need to try him in the outfield (where his arm would obviously work), to see if he would detract from his value less in that position. I think Costanzo could really be a valuable player playing left field against right-handed pitching, racking up a bunch of assists and hitting about .250/.360/.480.

7. The Joe Savery pick caused quite a divided reaction among fans, myself included. At first, I was very much against it, based on players still on the board, but the more it settles in, the more value in the pick. Did you like the pick at the time? How fast do you see him moving through the system if he remains 100% healthy?

I loved the Savery pick, and I’m surprised Philies fans think there were better options available with the pick. Philadelphia just couldn’t afford Rick Porcello, and the only other pick I would have really liked as much as Savery was Mike Main. I think Philadelphia was actually surprised to see Savery available, given how well he pitched towards the end of the season. This was a guy talked about in the same sentence as David Price as a freshman, but Rice coach Wayne Graham’s usage patterns really slowed down Savery his final two seasons. I think the Phillies should get Savery on the Cole Hamels Babying plan, and do their best to avoid another injured top choice by putting his ETA expectations at about 2010. But when healthy this is a lefty with potential just shortly behind Hamels. The more guys like Savery and Drabek that get in this system, the better. It’s why I think they really need to get Brandon Workman done before August 15.

8. How would you rank guys like James Happ and Andrew Carpenter going forward? Both seem to be more 3/4 starters, but I think Carpenter could become a good back of the bullpen candidate with a 3 pitch mix and no one dominant pitch, but enough control to be a reliable setup guy or maybe even a closer. Thoughts on both guys?

Throwing J.A. Happ in the back end of my preseason top 100 prospect list was a bad idea, but nonetheless, I still believe in the Northwestern southpaw. The command issues are a real problem, but even if he drops his BB/G to just about two he’ll be fine as a fourth starter. The stuff obviously works, but Happ will have to keep the ball down in the zone better than he did in his previous cup of coffee. I still like Happ more than Drew Carpenter, who I think will have a harder time getting his stuff to work at the highest levels. It seems to me that he has a lot of pitches that are more noise than benefit, so maybe a move to the bullpen (where he might be able to dial it up to ~94~ mph) where he could just be fastball-splitter would be progress. I don’t believe in him as a starter yet, though.

9. Another guy that we have a tough time figuring out is Greg Golson. We all know about his potential, but he still isn’t drawing many walks. The power numbers are encouraging, but he doesn’t seem to be fully utilizing his speed yet and the strikeouts are a concern. Should we still be optimistic on Golson?

I just don’t see a lot of reason for optimism in Golson. Where Mike Costanzo’s strikeouts are cute because he mixes them with patience and elite power, Golson’s strikeouts are downright annoying. Unlike Costanzo, Golson won’t be able to sustain a .250 batting average, as the Phillies are hardly looking to employ a .250/.280/.400 hitter. I think jumping ship with his stock high, hoping no one else notices his .374 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) in Clearwater.

10. If you had to pick the Phillies prospect who took the biggest leap forward and biggest leap back this season, who would you go with?

The biggest leap forward has to be Michael Bourn, if he’s eligible. This was a guy who belonged at the back end of a top 10 list before the season, as no one was sure he’d hit enough in the Majors. But Bourn has been great this season and might be in the outfield everyday for the Phillies next year. Second would be Josh Outman, who really rose up the list with his consistency in High-A, with just four starts allowing more than 2 ER. The biggest drop is probably Edgar Garcia, who some believed would be the next Phillies prospect, but is instead not sharp enough to consistently retire A-ball hitters. He’s been a disappointment, no question.