Ok, so we’ve done a lot of discussing, we’ve looked at a lot of different guys, and now it’s time to figure out who the Phillies should take, who they are likely to take, what the best case scenario would be, and on the flipside, what the worst case scenario could be. The draft is very volatile, meaning that one guy going higher or lower than expected could cause a ripple effect and influence many other picks. For that reason, I’m only going to guess the #19 and #37 picks, because, well, at #84, there’s really no telling who may have slipped because of signability. So, I’ll give you my “best case” for both picks, listing 3 players who would be ideal at that spot, in my order of preference, and then I’ll give the “worst case”, 3 guys I really don’t want to see, then I’ll sum it up with my exact guess on the pick. Tomorrow I’ll roll out my complete mock draft of the first round, we’ll see how close I can get. If you’d like to take a guess yourself, check back to last week, I made a mock draft post with the draft order, just copy that into an e-mail, fill it out, and send it to me, I’ll post your results along with mine. On to the picks

This draft is stocked with talent, mainly on the prep side, so there are tons of ways to go with this pick, and as I mentioned above, what teams above us do is going to play a big role in what our pick will ultimately be. With that said, here is my best case scenario, in descending order of preference. Click on the player’s name for video/bio.

1. Jason Heyward, OF, Henry County High School (Georgia)

Heyward is regarded as one of the top power hitters in the draft, as a 17 year old high school hitter. He also has a very mature plate approach, not chasing bad pitches. His power is already usable, and he projects for even more down the road. His only “down side” is that he’s probably going to have to play left field because he lacks the arm for right. The odds of him being there at 19 are less than 20%, but again, this is the best case scenario.

2. Matt Harvey, RHP, Fitch High School (Connecticut)

Harvey entered the season as the top prep pitcher in the country, and was passed by Rick Porcello, more on Porcello’s dominant performances than Harvey’s lacking. Harvey has a perfect pitcher’s frame, at 6’4, 195 lbs, there is room for him to fill out and add even more velocity. He already can pitch regularly at 92-94, though stamina was a problem, but that should change as he gets into a pro regiment. His curveball has the makings of a plus pitch, and his changeup is rudimentary, mainly because he hasn’t had to use it much at all to dominate high school hitters. He’s advised by Scott Boras, but that shouldn’t matter to Gillick, who wasn’t afraid to take signability risks last year (D’Arby Myers), and took the player he thought had the most talent and potential in Drabek with their first pick. Harvey could go anywhere from the first 8 picks through the bottom of the first round. Odds of him being there, we’ll say 50%

3. Devin Mesoraco, C, Punxsatawny High School (Pennsylvania)

I wrestled with this one for a while. Since 2000, there have only been 7 prep catchers taken in the first round of the draft, 3 more in the compensation round. Of that group, 2 came last year (Conger and Sapp), Brandon Snyder (2005, Orioles) is already being considered for a move to 1B, Neil Walker (2004, Pirates) is already playing 3B, Daric Barton (2003, A’s) is at first base, and Joe Mauer (2001, Twins) is an all star. Jarrod Saltalamacchia went in the comp round to Atlanta in 2003, but he might move out of necessity with McCann in Atlanta. So drafting a catcher in the first round isn’t common, but it doesn’t appear that Mesoraco is a common talent. He appears, from what I’ve seen, to be a better runner than all of the guys above, maybe save Joe Mauer. He isn’t a switch hitter like Salty, but he has good power from the right side, and he might have the best arm of the group. He’s raised his stock this spring more than any other prospect, outside of maybe Mike Moustakas, who went from a mid to late first rounder to a potential top 6 pick. I think there’s a good chance he’s there at 19 unless Toronto takes him, or Pittsburgh greatly overdrafts him at #4. We’ll say the odds are 80% he’s there.

With any best case, there’s always a worst case scenario. Of course, this is my opinion, I’m sure that others will like these players, I’d just prefer we go another direction. These are listed in the order of least desirable.

1. Michael Burgess, OF, Hillsborough High (Florida)

This is the absolute scariest guy in the draft. He is oozing with potential, but unfortunately, his potential has rarely shined through in games, as he is more of a batting practice type player. He has great power potential and hand eye coordination, but his swing just isn’t pretty, and many feel that it might not translate to pro ball. Remind you of anyone? Greg Golson? Golson was a better all around athlete than Burgess, but Burgess does have a cannon arm and will profile in right field. He’s all projection at this point, and could be a 5-6 year project. I seriously want no part of this, but because it is the Phillies, I will be biting my finger nails if he is still on the board at 17 or 18 and we are getting ready to pick.

2. Julio Borbon, OF, Tennessee

The thought of taking Borbon just worries me…..a lot, but I’m really not convinced he’s a viable pick for Gillick. Basically, Borbon is a hacker, he rarely ever takes a walk, and is just looking to swing. He’s been a leadoff for Tennessee and Team USA, and he has drawn Johnny Damon comparisons because of his leadoff spot in the lineup and some pop in his bat. However, like Johnny Damon, he already has a below average arm, and as mentioned, has no plate discipline. He can make up for this facing guys in college throwing in the mid 80’s without reliable breaking balls, but when he gets to pro ball, he won’t have the same luxury. I think it’s tough to say someone will learn how to be more patient at the plate, and that’s my biggest concern here. We have a bunch of guys like Borbon already in the system, and in a draft loaded with high ceiling talent, I think it would be foolish to spend the 19th pick on a largely average college outfielder. However, because he has at least hit in college, he’d be less of a disaster than Burgess.

3. Andrew Brackman, RHP, North Carolina State

Brackman is a really interesting guy on a lot of different fronts. He was predominantly interested in basketball before this season, so he hardly pitched at all prior to 2007. He’s 6’10, 230 lbs and has been clocked as high as 97-98 mph, and consistently pitched in the mid 90’s at times, but also dropped down in the high 80’s as recently as a month ago. His delivery obviously needs work, as he’ll struggle to be consistent with it because of his height. His curveball is a power breaker, but again, it’s inconsistent. The worst part of this is that he is advised by Scott Boras. He hasn’t pitched much at all over the last month because of a dead arm, probably due to his increased workload this year compared to the rest of his college career. Coming into 2007, with his talent and projection, he was considered a potential Top 3 pick, but he’s clearly sliding. He’s a junior, he has leverage, and Boras knows that, so no one will get a discount if he slides toward the middle to end of the first round. In a draft like this, again because of the shear amount of talent, I think it would be foolish to draft a guy unless you are absolutely willing to give him what he wants. Reports were that Brackman wanted a package worth close to $10M including a signing bonus and a guaranteed major league contract. He clearly has potential, but he’s not worth that kind of financial risk.

So now you have my best case and worst case scenarios, now it’s time for my firm guess on the pick. At this point, my gut tells me we are going to take either Mesoraco or a pitcher. My gut also tells me that Mesoraco will be there at #19, and that’s who we’ll take. So there we go. The pick is Devin Mesoraco, Catcher, Punxsatawney High School.

Compensation Round

To me, this is the absolute easiest decision, after doing a lot of reading and watching video. There’s no need for 3 picks here, best case and worst case, this is simply the guy I want, and I think there’s a 90% chance he’s there at #37.

Travis Mattair, SS/3B, Southridge High School (Washington)

In this spot, I was looking at Justin Jackson and Nevin Griffith a week ago, but now, Mattair seems like a slam dunk to me. He has a great frame for a high school kid, 6’4, 215 lbs, he’s a solid all around athlete, his defense will be above average, maybe better, at third base, and his bat has a chance to be a plus plus tool. He has a swing that should translate easily to wood bats, he’s got good power potential, as well as the ability to hit for average, and maybe most importantly, he has a very high baseball acumen, and his makeup is, according to scouts, off the charts. The Phillies lack impact position players outside of Adrian Cardenas, and drafting both Mesoraco and Mattair would go a long way toward fixing that. There are a ton of high quality high school arms that may slide to their 2nd round pick, and many more that will slide even further, allowing them to possibly break slot.

So, my guess is

#19: Devin Mesoraco, C
#37: Travis Mattair, 3B

Tomorrow I’ll do the entire top 30, and then it’s just a matter of sitting and waiting. Let’s hope for the best.