Arms to Watch Update #2

I figured it was time for another update on the guys I spotlighted before the season started. To read the original piece, click here, and to read the first update, click here. Also, I wanted to give a heads up that I will be starting the mid season evaluation of every prospect I ranked in the system over the offseason. I’ll probably just go in reverse, starting with the last guys I graded and working forward. I’ll probably start working on that after the draft is over and we have time to analyze what happened, so stay tuned. Onto the update..

Jarrod Freeman, RHP

2006, GCL: 45.1 IP — 9.33 H/9 — 0.99 BB/9 — 7.35 K/9 — 0.60 HR/9 — .373 Slg Allowed — 2.64 GB:FB
2007, SAL: 43.1 IP — 14.0 H/9 — 5.01 BB/9 — 5.85 K/9 — 1.04 HR/9 — .518 Slg Allowed — 1.30 GB:FB

Well….not much has gone right for Freeman at all. Walks are up, hits are way up, strikeouts are way down, and his GB:FB ratio is half as good as it was last year. His BABIP is .388, that’s high, but even if that comes down 60 points, his numbers will still look really ugly. Not really the type of performance you’re hoping for from a good live arm. He’s only 19, in full season ball, so it’s not the end of the world, we just need to hope to salvage something from him in the second half.

Darren Byrd, RHP

2006, RK/SS: 52.0 IP — 7.44 H/9 — 4.50 BB/9 — 7.10 K/9 — 0.10 HR/9 — .326 Slg Allwed — 1.84 GB:FB
2007, SAL: 47.1 IP — 7.64 H/9 — 5.54 BB/9 — 7.45 K/9 — 0.38 HR/9 — .307 Slg Allowed — 2.39 GB:FB

This is better. Byrd’s hit rate has remained the same, his K rate is up slightly, his HR suppression down slightly, he’s walked 1 more batter per 9, but his groundball tendencies have improved. He’s only 20, and this season represents his first full season, after spending two years in the GCL and New York Penn League. He’s cut down the walks in May after a rough April, and his Slugging Allowed in May is only .284, a promising sign. He’s looking much better than Freeman at this point.

Carlos Monasterios, RHP

2006, GCL: 44.2 IP, 8.35 H/9 — 1.22 BB/9 — 7.13 K/9 — 0.61 HR/9 — .324 Slg Allwed — 2.22 GB:FB
2007, SAL: 55.0 IP, 7.36 H/9 — 3.27 BB/9 — 6.87 K/9 — 0.49 HR/9 — .314 Slg Allwed — 1.27 GB:FB

I like what I see here, for the most part. Making the jump from rookie ball to the SAL isn’t easy, but Monasterios has pitched well with the exception of his first start, where he gave up 7 runs in the first inning. He’s been less hittable, but walked more batters, which is to be expected, but his HR rate and slugging allowed have both dropped, despite not getting nearly as many groundballs. As we’ve noted in the past, Lakewood greatly suppresses home runs, so allowing more fly balls won’t hurt him now as much, but could be a problem down the road. His month to month splits are interesting

April: 24 IP — 10.13 H/9 — 3.00 BB/9 — 6.00 K/9 — 0.00 HR/9
May: 31 IP –5.23 H/9 — 3.48 BB/9 — 7.55 K/9 — 0.87 HR/9

Looks like he might be heading in the right direction.

Pat Overholt, RHP

2006, A+/AA:  72.0 IP — 7.13 H/9 — 4.5 BB/9 — 11.63 K/9 — 1.13 HR/9 — .385 Slg Allwed — 1.21 GB:FB
2007, A+: 54 IP — 8.67 H/9 — 3.83 BB/9 — 7.17 K/9 — 1.0 HR/9 — .403 Slg Allwed — 1.78 GB:FB

Overholt has been a bit of a disappointment to me. After a good April, he’s been getting knocked around in May, allowing 5 HR in 26 innings, while seeing his GB:FB rate go from 2.36 in April to 1.30 in May. Quite simply, when he keeps the ball on the ground, he can be very effective, but when he doesn’t, the results normally aren’t good. I think a move back to the bullpen is coming, whether it be something this year or next season.

Andrew Cruse, RHP

2006, SS:  66.2 IP – 8.16 H/9 — 2.58 BB/9 — 6.53 K/9 — 0.27 HR/9 — .341 Slg Allwed — 1.96 GB:FB
2007, SAL: 23.2 IP — 10.47 H/9 — 3.88 BB/9 — 12.03 K/9 — 1.16 HR/9 — .434 Slg Allwed — 0.96 GB:FB

Well, the Phillies went the reliever route with Cruse, which I thought (and still think) is the right way to go, but the results haven’t been all together pretty. His hits are up, his walks are up, his home runs are up, slugging up, groundballs down, but his K rate has shot through the roof. Cruse was real good against lefties last year, and has been good against them this year as well, putting up a .184/.295/.342 line, compared to .328/.373/.492 against right handed batters. Cruse has been much more hittable in May, and I’m not sure if it’s mechanical, mental, or something else. He still has a good arm, the K rate attests to his swing and miss ability, but he needs to keep the ball down and in the park.

1 thought on “Arms to Watch Update #2

  1. We need to keep in mid that alomost all of our “arms” had to get it together and by the time the season was 2/3 finished, there emerged several “surprise” pitching prospects. The learning process should not be confused with a “lack” of progress. So, IMO we need to watch and wait until that 2/3 mark to gain a better picture on them. And, in the meantime we can take pleasure in that Monteserios (sp) guy who has sneaked up on us.

    Further, IMO we need to re-evaluate what we got for Abreu in light of his severe decline w the Yankees. The quote recently has been: “Maybe the Phils knew moreabout his decline than we thought.”

    PERHAPS, the ravaging PG took when the trade was made should be re-visited.

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